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历史观点（1 条，最新在上）

1. 2026/06/22 10:33提及跳转 X 原文 →
   English · 原文

   As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.

   中文 · 翻译

   关于 $LPK：如果要猜的话，等他们全面放量后，市值大概在 30-50 亿美元还算合理。 对我来说这感觉更不对称，因为这就是个等待游戏，而且玻璃基板的客户他们已经拿到了。 小型设备供应商的瓶颈通常会被 TAM 限制住，规模很难到 200 亿美元以上，除非你是 ASML，或者像 KLAC 那样掌握多个瓶颈环节。 在放量前市值还这么小、能称得上“垄断”的标的真不多： 可能有的例子： - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~80 亿美元 - Towa (压缩邦定) ~20 亿美元 - Techwing (内存 handler / 晶圆级探针) ~15 亿美元 - MSScorps (CPO 检测)，但还在放量前。8.5 亿美元 - Riber (量子 MBE)，非常早期 ~3.5 亿美元 然后 LPK Laser 做玻璃核心基板（即将放量），市值约 7.3 亿美元，按主题来说应该比内存设备有更高溢价（比如主要先进封装转型、CPO 相关等）。 我还知道不少冷门化工垄断标的，但那些不太受关注，因为 BOM 比设备低得多。 但 LPK 的情况是： 比如：“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户已选定 LPKF 设备”。 在玻璃基板放量中，TGV 的 LIDE 市占率目标 70%，这应该非常关键。（披露：持仓，上面列的名字除了 Techwing/Aixtron 都有，非投资建议）。 如果你看看 $AEHR 现在走到大约 35 亿美元市值，LPK 的路径大概就是： - < 5 亿美元：“哦他们没客户！” --->（大概现在就在这中间某处）。 - < 15 亿美元：“可能放量快来了！” - 30 亿美元以上：“看起来他们开始放量了。” 这是我个人经验里对瓶颈设备供应商周期循环的一个教训。