AEVAAeva
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
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被提及为SIVE的中间客户，服务于Boston Dynamics和NVIDIA的自动驾驶标准。
最近发言：2026/08/25 09:46 · 信心分 7/10
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历史观点（14 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.中文 · 翻译很多人都在好奇 $SIVE 两天后的财报。 我关注的点是： 1. 我希望光子学的共同开发/认证/合同方面能有更多明确信息。 → $AAOI 说有多个客户找他们要 CPO 激光器（但他们不得不拒绝了） → $MTSI 说有很多客户找他们要 CW 产能（但要
- English · 原文I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.中文 · 翻译我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能不能拿到更多晶圆厂产能分配的，毕竟现在连续波 DFB 短缺问题挺普遍的。 因为我很有信心，一旦通过认证并开始大规模量产，他们的产品肯定会卖脱销。 但除此之外 > 从像 $MTSI / $AAOI 这样的其他公司财报中，能再次确认供需不平衡会很有帮助。 > 上次财报中提到的与可插拔模块领域玩家的新开发/认证进展，这可能是最重要的。 > 与 $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS 的合作进展或其他机会，也许能有一些初步采购订单就更好了。 > 纳斯达克上市进展再次强调（我们已经知道计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍然把这个放在优先位置，因为它能为他们的并购提供更多资金，希望能够深化到可插拔技术栈。 我认为营收拐点大约会在 2027 年上半年出现，所以目前的营收/利润数据不太重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发布一份声明，比如“我们生产的任何东西都预计能在 2028 年售罄”之类的话，那可就太牛了。
- English · 原文The unexpected thing of the week... Was $AEVA becoming a CPO/NPO optical source player. For background: $SIVE is viewed as the high confidence CW DFB laser supplier to Aeva (which is known for lidar). Today, Aeva reacted with +18.26% AH on news that they signed a JDA with an optical engine player for deployment at a major hyperscaler in H2 2027, production ramp 2028. "Optical Connectivity will leverage that foundation along with Aeva’s EXISTING high-volume manufacturing and foundry supply chain" for: - ELSFP (similar to O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE), with Sivers as the likely CW laser + potential amplifier supplier - On-chip integrated light source (likely $SIVE DFB + Aeva PIC on the architecture/integration side) TLDR: New TAM and a hyperscaler programs for Aeva for CPO/NPO, positive read through for upstream suppliers like $SIVE.中文 · 翻译这周意想不到的事... 居然是 $AEVA 成了一个 CPO/NPO 光源供应商。 先说点背景：$SIVE 被认为是 Aeva（就是做激光雷达的那个）靠谱的连续波 DFB 激光器供应商。 今天，Aeva 盘后涨了 +18.26%，因为有消息说他们和一家光引擎公司签了 JDA（联合开发协议），计划在 2027 年下半年部署到一家大型超大规模数据中心，2028 年开始量产。 引述：“光连接将利用这个基础，再加上 Aeva 现有的高产量制造和代工供应链”，用于： - ELSFP（类似于 O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE 的模式），Sivers 很有可能是连续波激光器 + 潜在的放大器供应商 - 片上集成光源（很可能是 $SIVE 的 DFB + Aeva 的 PIC，在架构/集成方面） 总之：Aeva 在 CPO/NPO 领域有了新的潜在市场（TAM）和超大规模数据中心项目，对像 $SIVE 这样的上游供应商是利好。
- English · 原文For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables. - $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more. O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say. Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources. And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028. How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is: It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked). For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out. The main area of interest is downstream IP acquisition for TAM expansion, so I think that opportunity pipeline undersells forward growth going forward.中文 · 翻译对于$SIVE这种布局，最好是看看他们的合作伙伴和时间线。 - $JBL 在摩根大通的炉边谈话中确认，他们凭借 1.6T LRO 拥有相对显著的护城河，并且在接下来的 1-4 个月内（这是两个月前说的）完成资质认证。所以，资质认证完成的时间点应该在 2026 年 8 月到 2027 年 3 月之间，然后 Sivers 的产品就可以在可插拔模块中大规模量产了。 - $AEVA 的目标是大概在 2026 年第四季度开始大规模制造 (HVM)，而 $POET 将在 2026 年下半年开始生产，但可能上半年晚些时候就会有更多进展。 我认为 O-Net、Ayar、$GFS 和其他公司大概会在 2027 年左右，那更多是 CPO 的时间线，而不是严格意义上的 $SIVE。 对执行力很有信心，因为 $SIVE 在许多不同的超大规模供应商渠道中都拥有技术和资质认证的
- English · 原文Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell. $SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs. With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term. Then $GFS, Ayar, and many other players are volume ramping later in 2027. Sivers also confirmed intent to complete NASDAQ Listing in the next few quarters. It's probably my highest conviction photonics long, everything seems to be coming into place.中文 · 翻译没人应该关注技术分析图，那些只是人们凭空画些弯弯扭扭的线，试图说服别人卖出。 $SIVE 刚刚紧急募资 7000 万美元用于大规模生产，很可能是为了从晶圆厂获得配额。 $JBL、$POET、$AEVA 和其他公司短期内都将迎来产量爬坡。 然后 $GFS、Ayar 以及许多其他玩家将在 2027 年晚些时候迎来产量爬坡。 Sivers 还确认了在未来几个季度完成纳斯达克上市的意向。 这可能是我最有信心的光子学多头股，一切似乎都正在到位。
- English · 原文@AleksandarGenov Probably Agility Robotics going public with $CCXI and all the media narratives around it was the catalyst. Feels like $OUST, $AEVA and other names were pretty flat until the announcement. As for energy like $FCEL, $BE, seems pretty fundamental with new upsized contracts中文 · 翻译@AleksandarGenov 可能是 Agility Robotics 借壳 $CCXI 上市，以及围绕它的一切媒体宣传成了催化剂。 感觉 $OUST、$AEVA 等其他名字在消息宣布前一直都挺平淡的。 至于像 $FCEL、$BE 这样的能源股，新的大额合同感觉主要是基本面驱动。
- English · 原文$SIVE is has a decent chance to be in Boston Dynamics humanoid programs through $AEVA and LG Innotek. I don’t see it being too material to revenue near term since the leading humanoid companies have only made ~10K so far. But if you get to the millions in past 2028, it’s probably material to revenue中文 · 翻译$SIVE 有相当大的机会通过 $AEVA 和 LG Innotek 进入波士顿动力的人形机器人项目。 短期内我觉得这对营收影响不会太大，因为头部人形机器人公司到目前为止才造了大约 1 万台。 但如果你到 2028 年之后达到百万台级别，那可能就对营收有实质贡献了。
- English · 原文Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential. In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE: - $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers - $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE - $AMD went to $GFS for CPO - $SIVE announced CW with TFLN - Ayar (using $SIVE) raised a bunch for volume ramp and joined $NVDA NVLink ecosystem - AlChip private placement with Amazon, which is Ayar's primary ASIC partner (hinting at Trainium wins) - O-Net new ELS partnership with $SIVE for mass production - $POET new purchase order with a customer that stated their initial clients is a "top-3 hyperscaper" - New CHIPS Act nondilutive funding - "LIDAR customer will ramp production starting Q4 2026," which is likely $AEVA - New information discovery likely linking $SIVE customer to $MRVL Celestial (not through Poet), Lightelligence, and Lightelligence. - New information discovery about Ayar removing Lumentum / Macom from website and likely making Sivers primary source - More pluggable players on top of $JBL. - $NVDA bottlenecking CW laser supply and $AMD + other CSPs going around signing LTAs - NASDAQ listing planned And more.中文 · 翻译倒也不是，我个人还是觉得它被低估了。关键是看市值和未来营收潜力的对比。 就在这么短的时间内，关于 $SIVE 就有： - $JBL 宣布与 Sivers 合作，推出 1.6T LRO。 - $GFS 发布了与 $SIVE 相关的参考激光器公告。 - $AMD 转而向 $GFS 寻求 CPO（封装光学）。 - $SIVE 宣布与 TFLN 合作推出 CW（连续波）。 - Ayar（使用 $SIVE 的技术）获得了大量融资以扩大生产，并加入了 $NVDA 的 NVLink 生态系统。
- English · 原文$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths with Aeva. Apple likely using Sivers also reiterated from the newer webpage: “Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring. They just can’t namedrop partners due to confidentiality, but consumer sensing is probably the biggest tell. Physical AI and mass consumer production with Apple would be very material to revenue.中文 · 翻译$SIVE + Aeva 大概率是从今天的新 PR 里推断出来的，以及 $SIVE + Apple。 关于 Sivers 激光器为机器人 / 具身 AI 提供动力。 → Sivers 激光器通过 LG Innotek 为波士顿动力 Atlas 提供动力，用于机器人领域 → Nvidia Hyperion 生态系统中搭载 Sivers 激光器，用于具身 AI。 这些都是与 Aeva 可能展开的路径。 Apple 也很有可能使用 Sivers，这在较新的网页上得到了重申： “用于可穿戴设备的光学传感模块”——来自生物识别与健康监测。 他们只是出于保密原因不能直接点名合作伙伴，但消费级传感大概是最明显的信号。 具身 AI 加上与 Apple 的大规模消费级生产，对营收来说会是非常实质性的推动。
- English · 原文$SIVE is likely laser ramping with $AEVA soon and $AAPL with their next refresh of Apple Watches after their recent announcement. Haven’t seen anything credible to disprove that. There’s some people without technical depth conflating TASC sensors with future Apple Watches using lasers, and don’t understand NRE volumes can carry forward years too. AI DCs for photonics are $SIVE main focus though, anything else like Apple is a cherry on top.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 很可能很快就要和 $AEVA 一起激光爬坡，加上 $AAPL 最近宣布之后的下一次 Apple Watch 更新。 目前还没看到任何可靠信息能反驳这一点。 有些缺乏技术深度的人把 TASC 传感器和未来的激光版 Apple Watch 混为一谈，也不明白 NRE 量产能延续多年。 不过 AI 数据中心的光电子才是 $SIVE 的主要方向，像 Apple 这类业务只是锦上添花。
- English · 原文Many work against the interest of retail investors. Especially as JP Morgan / US institutions are trying to buy up the float. You have a company funded with CHIPS Act, in major hyperscaler supply chains from $NVDA to others, powering Ayar for CPO, $JBL for pluggables. And now the reference laser for $GFS. With closest ramp with $AEVA / $POET likely coming next. And following that likely US NASDAQ Listing. Sivers is one of the most compelling photonics companies, and pretty sure all the deals established that already.中文 · 翻译很多动作都对散户投资者不利。 尤其是当摩根大通 / 美国机构正试图买断流通股的时候。 你有一家靠《芯片法案》资金支持的公司，身处从 $NVDA 到其他巨头的主要超大规模数据中心供应链中，为 Ayar 提供 CPO 方案，为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块。现在又成了 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商。 接下来最接近放量的很可能是 $AEVA / $POET。再之后，大概率就会在美国纳斯达克上市。 Sivers 是光子学领域最引人注目的公司之一，我相当确定已有的所有交易都已经证明了这一点。
- English · 原文$JBL literally announced in their fireside chat… Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months. $SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver. Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / sole source laser supplier. 2025 annual report, $SIVE signaled start of volume ramp with both (likely) $AEVA and $POET. This is how you do supply chain mapping on qualification cycles. Anything they make, Sivers makes revenue off lasers. If you ask AI they will keep confidently citing 2024 revenue numbers without knowing volume hints. Which is why I keep seeing these false claims like this over and over, despite Sivers being on the precipice of mass production for 2027.中文 · 翻译$JBL 在他们的炉边谈话中直接宣布了…… 1.6T LRO 将在 3-10 个月内进入大规模量产，需求极其旺盛。 $SIVE 极有可能是这款特定光收发器唯一的激光器供应商。 Ayar 最近刚筹集了 5 亿美元用于产能爬坡，而 $SIVE 是其主要 / 唯一的激光器供应商。 2025 年年报中，$SIVE 暗示已开始与（很可能）$AEVA 和 $POET 一起进入产能爬坡阶段。 这才是正确的供应链追踪方式，盯着认证周期判断。 他们做的东西，只要出货，Sivers 就能从激光器上赚到钱。 你要是去问 AI，它们会自信满满地引用 2024 年的营收数据，根本不知道那些产能放量的信号。 所以我才反复看到这种错误说法，尽管 Sivers 已经站在 2027 年大规模量产的门槛上了。
- English · 原文When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries. I'm not sure people are fully aware yet. $SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others. Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dynamics / $NVDA self-driving architectural standards. Then you have $SIVE -> Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL, and many others for CPO/1.6T. Those go to GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell -> hyperscalers. Then there's a ton more... Like their US Gov CHIPS Act work that are secretive. Normally with stuff like $POET, it's like "hey" you have 1 customer with a $50m purchase order, we know where that's going. Not some Swedish company with a smaller valuation, going into everywhere from Space, Robotics, AI, consumer segments...中文 · 翻译在做供应链梳理的时候…$SIVE 在很多前沿产业里都处于绝对关键的位置。 我感觉大家还没完全意识到这一点。 $SIVE → $AAPL、$NOK、$RTX（美国国防承包商）、$YSS（金穹）。还不包括爱立信和其他。 然后还有 $SIVE → $AEVA → Boston Dynamics / $NVDA 自动驾驶架构标准。 接着是 $SIVE → Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL，还有很多其他做 CPO/1.6T 的公司。 这些又通到 GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell → 超大规模云厂商。 还有更多…比如他们跟美国政府《芯片法案》相关的保密项目。 通常像 $POET 这种，你会说"嘿"，它有一个客户下了 $5000 万的采购订单，我们知道钱会流向哪里。 但一家瑞典公司，估值更小，却遍布太空、机器人、AI、消费电子等各个领域。
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
AEVA 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：