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历史观点（7 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文$SIVE is has a decent chance to be in Boston Dynamics humanoid programs through $AEVA and LG Innotek. I don’t see it being too material to revenue near term since the leading humanoid companies have only made ~10K so far. But if you get to the millions in past 2028, it’s probably material to revenue中文 · 翻译$SIVE 有相当大的机会通过 $AEVA 和 LG Innotek 进入波士顿动力的人形机器人项目。 短期内我觉得这对营收影响不会太大，因为头部人形机器人公司到目前为止才造了大约 1 万台。 但如果你到 2028 年之后达到百万台级别，那可能就对营收有实质贡献了。
- English · 原文$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths with Aeva. Apple likely using Sivers also reiterated from the newer webpage: “Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring. They just can’t namedrop partners due to confidentiality, but consumer sensing is probably the biggest tell. Physical AI and mass consumer production with Apple would be very material to revenue.中文 · 翻译$SIVE + Aeva 大概率是从今天的新 PR 里推断出来的，以及 $SIVE + Apple。 关于 Sivers 激光器为机器人 / 具身 AI 提供动力。 → Sivers 激光器通过 LG Innotek 为波士顿动力 Atlas 提供动力，用于机器人领域 → Nvidia Hyperion 生态系统中搭载 Sivers 激光器，用于具身 AI。 这些都是与 Aeva 可能展开的路径。 Apple 也很有可能使用 Sivers，这在较新的网页上得到了重申： “用于可穿戴设备的光学传感模块”——来自生物识别与健康监测。 他们只是出于保密原因不能直接点名合作伙伴，但消费级传感大概是最明显的信号。 具身 AI 加上与 Apple 的大规模消费级生产，对营收来说会是非常实质性的推动。
- English · 原文$SIVE is likely laser ramping with $AEVA soon and $AAPL with their next refresh of Apple Watches after their recent announcement. Haven’t seen anything credible to disprove that. There’s some people without technical depth conflating TASC sensors with future Apple Watches using lasers, and don’t understand NRE volumes can carry forward years too. AI DCs for photonics are $SIVE main focus though, anything else like Apple is a cherry on top.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 很可能很快就要和 $AEVA 一起激光爬坡，加上 $AAPL 最近宣布之后的下一次 Apple Watch 更新。 目前还没看到任何可靠信息能反驳这一点。 有些缺乏技术深度的人把 TASC 传感器和未来的激光版 Apple Watch 混为一谈，也不明白 NRE 量产能延续多年。 不过 AI 数据中心的光电子才是 $SIVE 的主要方向，像 Apple 这类业务只是锦上添花。
- English · 原文Many work against the interest of retail investors. Especially as JP Morgan / US institutions are trying to buy up the float. You have a company funded with CHIPS Act, in major hyperscaler supply chains from $NVDA to others, powering Ayar for CPO, $JBL for pluggables. And now the reference laser for $GFS. With closest ramp with $AEVA / $POET likely coming next. And following that likely US NASDAQ Listing. Sivers is one of the most compelling photonics companies, and pretty sure all the deals established that already.中文 · 翻译很多动作都对散户投资者不利。 尤其是当摩根大通 / 美国机构正试图买断流通股的时候。 你有一家靠《芯片法案》资金支持的公司，身处从 $NVDA 到其他巨头的主要超大规模数据中心供应链中，为 Ayar 提供 CPO 方案，为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块。现在又成了 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商。 接下来最接近放量的很可能是 $AEVA / $POET。再之后，大概率就会在美国纳斯达克上市。 Sivers 是光子学领域最引人注目的公司之一，我相当确定已有的所有交易都已经证明了这一点。
- English · 原文$JBL literally announced in their fireside chat… Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months. $SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver. Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / sole source laser supplier. 2025 annual report, $SIVE signaled start of volume ramp with both (likely) $AEVA and $POET. This is how you do supply chain mapping on qualification cycles. Anything they make, Sivers makes revenue off lasers. If you ask AI they will keep confidently citing 2024 revenue numbers without knowing volume hints. Which is why I keep seeing these false claims like this over and over, despite Sivers being on the precipice of mass production for 2027.中文 · 翻译$JBL 在他们的炉边谈话中直接宣布了…… 1.6T LRO 将在 3-10 个月内进入大规模量产，需求极其旺盛。 $SIVE 极有可能是这款特定光收发器唯一的激光器供应商。 Ayar 最近刚筹集了 5 亿美元用于产能爬坡，而 $SIVE 是其主要 / 唯一的激光器供应商。 2025 年年报中，$SIVE 暗示已开始与（很可能）$AEVA 和 $POET 一起进入产能爬坡阶段。 这才是正确的供应链追踪方式，盯着认证周期判断。 他们做的东西，只要出货，Sivers 就能从激光器上赚到钱。 你要是去问 AI，它们会自信满满地引用 2024 年的营收数据，根本不知道那些产能放量的信号。 所以我才反复看到这种错误说法，尽管 Sivers 已经站在 2027 年大规模量产的门槛上了。
- English · 原文When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries. I'm not sure people are fully aware yet. $SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others. Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dynamics / $NVDA self-driving architectural standards. Then you have $SIVE -> Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL, and many others for CPO/1.6T. Those go to GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell -> hyperscalers. Then there's a ton more... Like their US Gov CHIPS Act work that are secretive. Normally with stuff like $POET, it's like "hey" you have 1 customer with a $50m purchase order, we know where that's going. Not some Swedish company with a smaller valuation, going into everywhere from Space, Robotics, AI, consumer segments...中文 · 翻译在做供应链梳理的时候…$SIVE 在很多前沿产业里都处于绝对关键的位置。 我感觉大家还没完全意识到这一点。 $SIVE → $AAPL、$NOK、$RTX（美国国防承包商）、$YSS（金穹）。还不包括爱立信和其他。 然后还有 $SIVE → $AEVA → Boston Dynamics / $NVDA 自动驾驶架构标准。 接着是 $SIVE → Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL，还有很多其他做 CPO/1.6T 的公司。 这些又通到 GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell → 超大规模云厂商。 还有更多…比如他们跟美国政府《芯片法案》相关的保密项目。 通常像 $POET 这种，你会说"嘿"，它有一个客户下了 $5000 万的采购订单，我们知道钱会流向哪里。 但一家瑞典公司，估值更小，却遍布太空、机器人、AI、消费电子等各个领域。
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。