AMDAMD
6看多0看空37提及
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
AMD 整体偏多（看多 6 · 看空 0）
AMD预计将经历股价快速上涨。
最近发言：2026/08/13 11:03 · 信心分 6/10
8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及
历史观点（43 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.中文 · 翻译不知道是不是我一个人的感觉，但我现在看到的 CW（连续波）需求失衡太大了（多亏了 $NVDA）。 而且这还没算上规模扩大和其他 1.6T 产能爬坡还没到来呢。然后你看 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 出现了，它们有稀缺的、独立的 CW 激光器或收发器产能…… 这通常会迫使其他主要玩家，比如 $AMD 和超大规模数据中心提供商，去关注它们。$MTSI 说他们的产能要到 2027 年下半年才开始上线，但客户已经很急地来找他们了…… CW 激光器是我现在最喜欢的一个瓶颈。
- English · 原文Woah, $RIOT announced a $9.1B deal with Anthropic, with a possible contract extending to $16.1B, over 20Y. $AMD also exercised its option to expand its existing deal with Riot. (And they still have another 1 GW campus they have LOI with for a tenant) In terms of timelines, seem like most of the Colo basket have their revenue inflections hit H2 2027? (Eg. Riot Anthropic deal targets Dec 2027 for first 96 MW, AMD full 50 MW - May 2027) It’s cute to see all the former miners like $IREN and co. grow up.中文 · 翻译哇哦，$RIOT 宣布与 Anthropic 达成一项 91 亿美元的交易，这份合同可能在 20 年内延长至 161 亿美元。 $AMD 也行使了期权，扩大了与 Riot 现有的合作。（而且他们还有另一个 1 吉瓦的园区，已经跟一个租户签了意向书 LOI） 从时间线来看，看起来大部分 Colo（托管）业务的营收拐点都会在 2027 年下半年出现？ （比如，Riot 和 Anthropic 的交易目标是到 2027 年 12 月，首批 96 兆瓦完成；AMD 的 50 兆瓦项目则是在 2027 年 5 月） 看到那些像 $IREN 等前矿企和其他公司一起“长大成人”，感觉挺有意思的。
- English · 原文Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.中文 · 翻译就说几个近期的事件吧： - 明天就是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA），届时你们关注的CPO玩家会发布公告/更新。 这应该会对某些光模块公司形成催化剂。 - 财报周：今天有$ASTS、$RKLB（航天领域）发财报，周二有$LITE（光子学领域），周中有$NBIS（Neocloud），等等。 - Unitree的IPO申购今天开放了，预计本月上市。 如果它上市表现不错，这应该会对人形机器人+机器人板块形成一个潜在的催化剂，比如$CCXI。 接下来一周会很有趣。
- English · 原文I'm extremely bullish on $AAOI, it's one of my top holdings? But there's an unholy amount of things to unpack when AOI said they're not participating in first-gen CPO deployments because there's not enough capacity. 1. Independent CW DFB capacity, even less than markets thought. 2. Qualified CPO laser players, even less than markets thought. 3. I remember Rosenblatt thought $AAOI would be $AMD's first CPO customer, but might not be the case anymore... And since $LITE and $COHR are in camp $NVDA and sold out for next 2 years... Some other CPO players might be more valuable than others think.中文 · 翻译我对 $AAOI 非常看好，这是我持仓里的大头？ 但当 AOI 说他们不会参与第一代 CPO 部署，因为产能不足时，里面有惊人多的东西要细说。 1. 独立的连续波 DFB 产能，比市场预期的还要少。 2. 合格的 CPO 激光供应商，比市场预期的还要少。 3. 我记得 Rosenblatt 认为 $AAOI 会是 $AMD 的第一个 CPO 客户，但现在可能不再是这样了... 而且因为 $LITE 和 $COHR 都在 $NVDA 阵营，未来两年订单都满了... 其他一些 CPO 玩家可能比大家想象的更有价值。
- English · 原文I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”中文 · 翻译我还是觉得没人知道现实生活中怎么发音或者讨论 $AAOI。 它比 $TSM 或 $AMD 多一个字母，说起来太长了。 而且没人会跟朋友说“哇，我喜欢应用光电！”
- English · 原文Thesis is more for CPO scale up expecting complexity making make MSSCorp a monopoly-type chokepoint over inspection yields (they were claiming 90% market share target). Although they can be used for other segments. $FORM ramped a lot earlier, so maybe will revenue would start to appear in next earnings? Regardless, Asian names sold off extremely hard on CPO timeline delay report that I found to be incorrect with my channel checks at the $AMD conference. Don't think my views have changed, it's moreso waiting for 2027. Names with more confirmed scale-out switch volumes like Shunsin + laser names like $AAOI / $SIVE ramp a lot earlier. It's just timelines in my view and when markets want to price that in.中文 · 翻译这个投资论点更多是针对 CPO（Co-packaged Optics，共封装光学）规模化生产，预计会因为复杂度增加，让 MSSCorp 在检测良率方面成为一种垄断性质的关键瓶颈（他们曾声称目标市场份额是 90%）。当然，他们的技术也可以用于其他细分领域。 $FORM 早就开始大规模量产了，所以营收也许会在下个财报中开始显现？ 不管怎样，亚洲相关股票因为 CPO 时间线延迟的报道遭遇了非常大的抛售，但我在 $AMD 大会上的渠道调查发现这些报道并不准确。 我不认为我的观点有所改变，更多的是在等待 2027 年。 那些已确认有更大规模出货的交换机厂商，比如 Shunsin，以及激光相关公司比如 $AAOI / $SIVE，会更早地实现产量爬坡。在我看来，这仅仅是时间线问题，以及市场何时愿意把这些因素计入股价。
- English · 原文Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.中文 · 翻译简单总结一下 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会的几点收获： 微软： - 预计到2027年自由现金流（FCF）转正，尽管资本支出（capex）在增加（这对于AI基础设施建设是天大的利好，因为它的资金来源是运营收入） - “自由现金流为19
- English · 原文@Frenchie_ @AMD These stickers were even better. $AMD go brrrr https://t.co/O3dvaUG83a中文 · 翻译@Frenchie_ @AMD 这些贴纸甚至更棒。 $AMD 一路狂飙 https://t.co/O3dvaUG83a
- English · 原文@Thomus0x eh, Rosenblatt June 30 note identified AMD as the likely first $AAOI CPO customer. I wouldn't quite say they aren't remotely close. $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE just look like your top 3 right now in terms of CPO laser visibility per the recent Morgan Stanley note.中文 · 翻译@Thomus0x 哎，Rosenblatt 6 月 30 日的报告里指出，AMD 很可能是 $AAOI 的第一个 CPO 客户。所以我觉得说他们根本不沾边，那就不太对。 $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE 看起来就是目前你的前三名，这主要是在 CPO 激光能见度方面，是根据最近摩根士丹利的报告说的。
- English · 原文Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.中文 · 翻译主要内容是高管们对 CPO（共同封装光学）这个主题的评论。涉及到 $AMD、超大规模数据中心的采纳情况以及时间表。 调研结果对 CPO 板块来说非常积极，要知道这块之前还因为延迟的消息下跌了。 而且对这个领域的 $SIVE 也很积极，因为他们是 Ayar 和 $GFS 的激光供应商，这两家都和 $AMD 可能的 CPO 路线有联系。 但没能直接从供应商那里得到确认，因为这是保密的。
- English · 原文From $AMD Advancing AI, channel checks: Helios networking partners told me they expect AMD to pursue CPO for future generations of Helios scale up networking. And expects other hyperscalers + industry to go down the CPO route. One AI infra executive at a company involved in a hyperscaler CPO programs said they had seen no indication of CPO scale up supply chain delays. Pushing back on recent 3rd party delay reports. This was informal commentary, not official AMD or partner guidance.中文 · 翻译来自 $AMD 人工智能进展的渠道调研显示： Helios 网络合作伙伴告诉我，他们预计 $AMD 将会为未来几代的 Helios 规模化网络采用 CPO 技术。 并预计其他超大规模数据中心厂商和业界也会选择 CPO 路线。 一位参与超大规模数据中心 CPO 项目的 AI 基础设施公司高管表示，他们没有看到任何 CPO 规模化供应链出现延迟的迹象。 这驳斥了最近第三方关于延迟的报道。 这只是非正式评论，并非 $AMD 或其合作伙伴的官方指引。
- English · 原文I have this feeling that Lisa from $AMD likes AI. It’s cool getting to meet some of you at the event! https://t.co/AWdGS349xF中文 · 翻译我有个预感，$AMD 的 Lisa 对 AI 很上心。 在活动上见到你们一些人真是太棒了！https://t.co/AWdGS349xF
- English · 原文@gaetan_po Yeah, I’m testing some things right now for bot prevention. Also going to $AMD event tomorrow rather than full 2 days, will definitely be asking about $SIVE!中文 · 翻译@gaetan_po 嗯，我正在测试一些防机器人措施。 还有，明天我去 $AMD 的活动，不是完整两天都去，我肯定会问关于 $SIVE 的！
- English · 原文$AMD to invest $5B in Anthropic. Anthropic in turn will sign a 2 GW deal to buy AMD’s latest chips, worth tens of billions of dollars. Looks like they’re copying the $NVDA playbook with Anthropic last year. https://t.co/SXBUq65u6P中文 · 翻译$AMD 将向 Anthropic 投资 50 亿美元。 Anthropic 反过来会签一份 2 吉瓦的协议，购买 $AMD 最新的芯片，价值数百亿美元。 看起来他们正在复制 $NVDA 去年和 Anthropic 合作的那一套玩法。https://t.co/SXBUq65u6P
- English · 原文@CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event. https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe中文 · 翻译@CarterChen18 Rosenblatt 的渠道调研显示，$AMD 之前在和 $AAOI 谈客户合作。 这可能是个选择，我会在活动上打听一下。https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
- English · 原文It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.中文 · 翻译这事儿其实更复杂一些。简单来说，$AMD 的旧金山活动就在明天，周三/周四（7 月 22、23 日）。 根据 Jefferies 的客户报告，$AMD 预计会披露更多关于他们可能的大规模 CPO（共同封装光学）路线图 + MI500 的信息。 如果他们确认走 CPO 路线，那从主题上来说是利好，因为它表明不只是 $NVDA 在推动这一转变。 至于 $SIVE，如果他们直接进入 $AMD 的供应链，我们就能了解得更清楚。 因为目前，我们有可能通过 $GFS（据报道参与了 $AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 $AYAR（$AMD 投资的公司）来推断，但还没有官方确认。 所以如果你正在关注： - CPO 主题积极面：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光学 UALink。 - $AMD 透露 MI500 CPO 将使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE：考虑到 $SIVE 是上游激光供应商/参考激光，这对于 $SIVE 来说将是极其积极的。 目前，Jefferies 的 Blayne Curtis 预计 $AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，并与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节在这里： “我们正在关注 $AMD 是否承诺采用基于 CPO 的扩展解决方案，以及谁将提供光学引擎。” 我们将在周三/周四获得更广泛的供应链信息，今天下结论还为时过早。
- English · 原文Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?中文 · 翻译铠侠系的存储股今天猛涨了17.18%。三星也涨了6.15%。 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 这些光网络股都在展现复苏迹象，全部涨了4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的 Neoclouds 概念股，盘前全部涨了4%以上。 从 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL，这些股都涨了4%以上。 难道克拉默效应要对整个AI概念股都起作用了吗？
- English · 原文Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.中文 · 翻译很多人都好奇 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi + 其他）产能扩张的模型是怎样的： 如果以 Win Semi 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端分配（假设良率 65%，平均售价 $50-$75）， Sivers 每年能支持 $3.41 亿到 $5.12 亿的阵列收入。鉴于管理层设定的 50-60%+ 毛利率目标上限，这大概会是： 每年 $2.05 亿到 $3.07 亿的毛利润。 对比 Sivers 目前约 $11 亿的市值，如果这个产能场景在 2028 年实现，大概是： 市销率/毛利润倍数在 3.6-5.4 倍。 如果分配比例达到 15%，毛利润将是 $3.07 亿到 $4.61 亿（市销率/毛利润倍数在 2.4-3.6 倍）。 Sivers CEO 也回复说他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以扩大产能。从一份旧的演示文稿来看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的认证。 所以随着 CPO 的兴起，产能目标可能比这里提到的还要大。 我还预计未来几个季度收入管道预测会调高，因为会有更多通过认证的供应商进入高量产阶段。 _ 至于需求侧，CW 也非常受限。 Lumentum 为了履行 EML 义务，正在从公开市场购买 CW，这从他们的财报电话会议记录中可见一斑。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议以确保 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET、O-NET 等公司合作扩大产能时…… 考虑到目前的限制，任何独立通过认证并投入使用的产能都很可能会被吸收。 锦上添花的是，Morgan Stanley 在他们最近的报告中将 $SIVE（约 $11 亿）列为三家领先的 CPO 激光器供应商之一。 与市值 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，这并非没有道理…… _ 总结：Sivers 只需要从 Win Semi 获得少量产能分配，就能实现相对于当前估值而言可观的毛收入。 我认为，如果他们在美国纳斯达克上市后通过 M&A 扩大总可寻址市场（TAM），那将是最大的收入增长潜力，目前尚未被模型纳入。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的策略，构建完整的收发器模块或光引擎。
- English · 原文I blocked them since they're known for spreading disinformation. Especially after it was exposed around their short seller activity, that there were marketing accounts telling people to sell. These accounts had histories of promoting the same Asian crypto launches. - They spread defamation like saying I used AI to fabricate reports on CW laser LTAs from $AMD, despite the report coming directly from Trendforce. Then they tried to hide references to the actual source after they were proven wrong. - I didn't sell a good chunk of my $SIVE position, I own 1M+ shares (not USD) as one of the largest individual shareholders. Don't see a reason to exit my position since I'm trying to own as much as possible before 1.6T pluggables and CPO architectural inflections hit. Better not to give malicious accounts additional views.中文 · 翻译我把他们拉黑了，因为他们是出了名的造谣机器。 尤其是在他们的做空活动被曝光之后，就有很多营销账号叫大家卖出。这些账号都有推广同一个亚洲加密货币项目的历史。 - 他们散布诽谤，说我用 AI 伪造了关于 $AMD CW 激光 LTA 的报告，尽管那份报告是直接来自 Trendforce 的。 然后他们被证明是错的之后，还想藏匿真正来源的引用。 - 我没有卖掉我大部分的 $SIVE 仓位，我持有超过 100 万股（不是美元），是最大的个人股东之一。 我没看到任何理由要卖出，因为在 1.6 万亿美元的可插拔光模块和 CPO 架构拐点到来之前，我正努力持有尽可能多的股票。 最好不要给那些恶意账号增加曝光。
- English · 原文Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.中文 · 翻译就随便说一下我的看法： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 这些股票，还有其他一些，都跟着一起崩盘…… 这些今天目前为止跌幅都在 -4% 到 -10% 以上。 那这可能就和个股基本面没什么关系了。 像瀑布式保证金清算这类原因导致的无差别抛售，如果标的公司基本面在改善的话，通常会带来非常不错的机会。
- English · 原文Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks). Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up. Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS. Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back. But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out. Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.中文 · 翻译光子技术是有实实在在的营收数据支撑的，而且这是 $NVDA 大力推动的架构转型。 量子技术则几乎没什么营收。 根据 $POET 股东大会的消息，$LITE 未来两年（可能从2029年开始）的产品已经完全售罄。Lumentum 的产能非常紧张，甚至要从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（财报电话会议记录里提到了）。 $COHR 则卡在瓶颈上，所以他们向 Lumentum 购买 EML。 接着，$AAOI 正带着“美国制造”的独立连续波产能入局，他们预计到2027年上半年，季度营收将达到14亿美元，要知道它今天市值才93亿美元，简直太低了。 所以，现在像 $AAOI 或 $SIVE 这样拥有独立连续波产能的厂商，他们的产能很可能会变成稀缺资源。 很多其他超大规模数据中心厂商已经开始谈长期供货协议（来自 Trendforce 的消息）。而像 $AMD 这样的公司，目前正在和 $AAOI 等厂商洽谈（Rosenblatt 的渠道调研显示）。 从主题上看，根据 GS（高盛）的报告，未来两年市场总规模（TAM）将增长9倍，达到1540亿美元，特别是在横向扩展/纵向扩展方面，每美元内容投入将分别增加16倍/45倍。 然后还有来自 $META 的关于 AI 的整体主题性下跌，这被很多人误解了，因为大家混淆了“过剩产能”的真正含义。而且正如 UBS（瑞银）提到的，Meta 计划提供云服务并不是什么新鲜事。 彭博社就是有这种倾向，喜欢发布导致半导体行业全面暴跌的消息，就像几个月前关于英伟达出口管制的那次。 但我很清楚自己持有的是什么，所以我对这些数据会实现很有信心。 尤其是在所有主要玩家都产能售罄的情况下，基本面终究会追上来的。
- English · 原文Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential. In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE: - $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers - $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE - $AMD went to $GFS for CPO - $SIVE announced CW with TFLN - Ayar (using $SIVE) raised a bunch for volume ramp and joined $NVDA NVLink ecosystem - AlChip private placement with Amazon, which is Ayar's primary ASIC partner (hinting at Trainium wins) - O-Net new ELS partnership with $SIVE for mass production - $POET new purchase order with a customer that stated their initial clients is a "top-3 hyperscaper" - New CHIPS Act nondilutive funding - "LIDAR customer will ramp production starting Q4 2026," which is likely $AEVA - New information discovery likely linking $SIVE customer to $MRVL Celestial (not through Poet), Lightelligence, and Lightelligence. - New information discovery about Ayar removing Lumentum / Macom from website and likely making Sivers primary source - More pluggable players on top of $JBL. - $NVDA bottlenecking CW laser supply and $AMD + other CSPs going around signing LTAs - NASDAQ listing planned And more.中文 · 翻译倒也不是，我个人还是觉得它被低估了。关键是看市值和未来营收潜力的对比。 就在这么短的时间内，关于 $SIVE 就有： - $JBL 宣布与 Sivers 合作，推出 1.6T LRO。 - $GFS 发布了与 $SIVE 相关的参考激光器公告。 - $AMD 转而向 $GFS 寻求 CPO（封装光学）。 - $SIVE 宣布与 TFLN 合作推出 CW（连续波）。 - Ayar（使用 $SIVE 的技术）获得了大量融资以扩大生产，并加入了 $NVDA 的 NVLink 生态系统。
- English · 原文@chenbaiyang70 Looks like photonics theme selloff combined with macro drop with $AAOI. I’m personally confident from $AMD CW LTA reports and next year’s $471M/month projections. But of course people should make their own decisions, optical names tend to be more volatile.中文 · 翻译@chenbaiyang70 看起来是光电子主题的抛售，叠加宏观市场下跌，加上 $AAOI。 我个人对 $AMD 的 CW LTA 报告以及明年每月 $4.71 亿的预测很有信心。 不过，当然大家应该自己做决定，光通讯类股波动性通常比较大。
- English · 原文oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.中文 · 翻译哦，我觉得你误会了……随着价格下跌，我反而比以往任何时候都更看好。 $SIVE 市值大约 19 亿美元，它有： - $GFS 的参考激光器 - 为 Ayar 及其他 $NVDA NVLink 生态系统中的 CPO 扩容提供激光器 - 为 $POET 及其他公司提供 CPO 规模扩展 - 为 $JBL 及其他公司提供 1.6T+ 可插拔光收发器 - O-Net 提供 ELS 大规模生产 所以，所有这些超大规模数据中心供应商都想尽可能多地生产，而 Sivers 是激光器的瓶颈…… 这只是 Win Semi 和其他合作伙伴能生产多少的问题，$SIVE 能获得大约 60% 的毛利率，还有向下拓展潜在市场（TAM）的选择权。 瑞典媒体一直在唱衰的最近 15% 股票增发，是为了纳斯达克上市流通股和并购（以及授权）。 你只是看到潜在的做空者在运营非法机器人农场，瑞典媒体对一家瑞典上市公司唱衰，再加上整体宏观下跌。 那笔大约 1.4 亿美元的可转债确实存在，但对美国机构来说只是九牛一毛。等数据出来后，我们可能会看到更多的机构持仓。 但这也就是为什么 $SIVE 优先考虑在纳斯达克上市是件好事，这样他们就不用处理这些噪音和当地媒体了。 $AAOI 市值 100 亿美元，它有： - 一家端到端（美国）的激光/设计/组装公司，预计在 2027 年下半年进入上半年，营收将达到 4.71 亿美元。 - 据说还有像 $AMD 这样的其他超大规模数据中心公司正在讨论长期协议（LTAs）。 而且他们在进行了大约 14 亿美元的 ATM（4 亿 + 4 亿 + 6 亿）后，可能手头现金充裕。 只要管理层不瞎扯，有了那些惊人的营收预测，差不多就够了。 这让我想起了去年 $NBIS 跌到 70 美元的时候，即使当时它预计年度经常性收入（ARR）有 70-90 亿美元，随着时间线临近，它又恢复到 250 多美元。感觉像是似曾相识。 我只是在等待两者的销量都能放量。光子学通常比其他行业波动更大。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect ASP/margins to go up across the board as well. Especially as the industry is bottlenecked and $AMD + CSPs are going around hunting for LTAs.中文 · 翻译那你自己判断咯。 不过我先抛个观点： 如果 $AAOI 能达到预期，那就是超过 800% 的同比增长，按 128 亿市值换算成年化营收就是 56 亿美元。 我猜那个每月 4.71 亿的数字还会继续往上走，因为需求看起来会指数级增长到 2028 年。 我估计整个行业的价格和利润率都会往上走。尤其是现在行业卡脖子，$AMD 加上各大云服务商都在到处找长期协议（LTA）。
- English · 原文We're in a massive EML bottleneck right now and CW lasers are getting bottlenecked now too. To my knowledge, $COHR is buying EMLs off $LITE because they can't make enough. $LITE is majority allocated to EML, so they can't make enough CW lasers. So they're buying CW lasers off competitors from their ER transcript, (probably Sumitomo, Furukawa and others), which likely feeds into $NVDA contracts. Then $AMD and your hyperscalers need capacity too but we're already in a shortage. Any capacity that comes online would likely be bought, since looks like we're in a shortage for next few years (lumentum already sold out into 2028). Not quite the same as your sk hynix/samsung/micron memory dynamic but there's still a massive moat with EML with probably only single digit amounts of players able to do this.中文 · 翻译现在 EML 产能严重堵塞，CW 激光器也开始卡脖子了。 据我所知，$COHR 正从 $LITE 手里买 EML，因为他们自己产量不够。 $LITE 大部分产线都给了 EML，所以也没余力生产足够多的 CW 激光器。 于是他们（从财报电话会里透露）开始向竞争对手买 CW 激光器——可能是住友、古河等——而这些货源大概率最终流进 $NVDA 的订单里。 然后 $AMD 和你那些超大规模客户也急需产能，但我们早就供不应求了。 现在但凡有新产能上线，基本都会被抢光，因为看起来未来几年都会持续短缺（Lumentum 都已经卖到了 2028 年）。 这和 SK 海力士/三星/美光的存储芯片情况不太一样，但 EML 的护城河依然很深，能做的玩家可能一只手就数得过来。
- English · 原文@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.中文 · 翻译@degenlurker_ $AAOI 和 $SIVEF 是我之前猜的、最有可能跟 $AMD 签大额 CW 激光器采购协议的两家公司。看接下来怎么走吧。 基于 aaoi 和 amd 的分析师渠道调研。以及 amd 跟 gfs/sivers 的参考激光器。
- English · 原文Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.中文 · 翻译Trendforce 报道说 $AMD 正在积极争取 CW 激光供应，下了好几笔大采购订单…… 这可能只是瓶颈的开始吧？ 西方供应链中，除了 $SIVE 和 $AAOI，可能还有 Macom 之外，已经没多少独立的产能了。 尤其是在 Lumentum/Coherent 和英伟达签了好几年协议，产能都被锁住之后。（披露：持有 Sive 和 aaoi） Lumentum 的 CW 激光供应已经很紧张了，根据财报我猜他们可能正在从住友/古河电工这类日本公司那里采购，而这些公司大概也已经满负荷运转了。 根据 Trendforce 的报告，这是： “为了确保其未来的产能不会受到英伟达和其他主要云服务提供商（CSP）的限制。” 如果亚马逊、微软等其他超大规模企业看到英伟达/AMD 签署了长期协议，然后也开始争取产能，我一点也不会感到惊讶。 很大程度上这是一种博弈论，为了不被竞争对手卡脖子，看起来英伟达之后，AMD 正在推倒第一块多米诺骨牌。 但我的看法是，这恰好说明了 CW 激光这个“瓶颈”有多么宝贵，以及处于这个瓶颈中的公司有多重要。
- English · 原文I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.中文 · 翻译不太理解为什么很多人对我的重仓多头 $AAOI 极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，一路涨到 $170 的时候都有人看空。（对，我就是觉得每个空头都错了，咱们看看最后谁对。） 他们有稀缺的激光产能，这正是 $AMD 和其他超大规模数据中心在找的。 而整个行业都被 $NVDA 卡着瓶颈。 加上他们有美国本土的收发器供应链，用于大规模生产 800g/1.6T（管理层表示——这是全美最大的）。 同时需求远超供给，而组装环节却外包到了亚洲。 然后他们给出的指引是，2027 年上半年到下半年过渡期间，月营收 4.71 亿美元。这相当于年化经常性收入 56 亿美元，而市值才 135 亿美元…… 而且到了 2028 年更晚的时候，还有大量重要的爆发量会出现。 至于波动，可能时不时会有 6 亿美元的活跃 ATM 增发被拿出来用。 再加上时不时冒出来的随机看空帖子和宏观因素，导致更大波动（比如某分析师报告因为假的 CPO 延迟传闻看空 $LITE，结果把板块内其他股票也带下来了）。 另外我们离那个时间点还有一年，所以时间线确实还有点早。 自打 $NBIS 之后，我就没见过这么快的营收爬坡。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe Yep, I would not be surprised if $AMD signed LTAs with $SIVE given the new Trendforce report that they're going around trying to secure CW laser capacity.中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 是的，如果 $AMD 因为 TrendForce 那份新报告、四处寻求锁定 CW 激光产能，而跟 $SIVE 签下长期协议的话，我一点都不会意外。
- English · 原文Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.中文 · 翻译反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
- English · 原文New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.中文 · 翻译最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。 并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息） 明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。 也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。 我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。 这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
- English · 原文@ratna555 I see the Lightmatter/Ayar type companies, probably going higher than $5B if they IPO. Since they're both part of $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem, heavy backers like NVidia/Intel/AMD/Google, and popular theme.中文 · 翻译@ratna555 我看好那些 Lightmatter/Ayar 类型的公司，如果它们 IPO 的话，估值很可能超过 50 亿美元。 毕竟它们都属于 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统的一部分，背后有像 NVIDIA/Intel/AMD/Google 这样的重量级投资方，又是当下热门的题材。
- English · 原文@LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.中文 · 翻译@LightLogix 我的意思是…… > $SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器 > $SIVE 提供 1.6T LRO 激光方案，配合 $JBL 以及众多可插拔厂商 > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > 很可能是 $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial 搭配 $NVDA NVLink > 大概率 $SIVE 也会进入 $AMD 的 CPO 生态系统 这是个非常吸引人的做多逻辑。
- English · 原文Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.中文 · 翻译Trendforce重申了一些关于玻璃基板，很有用的时间线（来源：Trendforce）： - SKC Absolics (011790) 2026年下半年（先行者，与 $AMAT 合作）- $AMD 的客户 - Samsung electromechanics 2027年下半年 (009150)，与 Sumitomo Chem (4005) 合作 - Apple / $AVGO / 超大规模厂商 关于 $INTC 2030年的报告，我就不清楚了，到时候看吧。 不过，$TSM CoPoS 说2-3年那个，从台积电董事长最近的评论来看确实是对的。Innolux 是个有意思的受益方。$SHMD 也应该会受益于台积电，但它财务状况实在有点糟糕。 同样的参与者应该会多次出现，比如 Innolux + SKC。 这也适用于 $LPK 以及围绕这些产能爬坡的上游设备供应商。
- English · 原文$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 是我从$28就开始持续加仓的标的之一。 就是随便洗澡时瞎想……感觉如果他们执行到位，翻倍甚至翻三倍几乎是迟早的事？ 毕竟800G/1.6T光模块的需求实在太大了…… 而这公司瞄准的是美国最大产能，还搞了极端的垂直整合。 我觉得有一点值得记住——主权数据中心 / Tier 2 AI 数据中心也会增加800G的需求，因为超大规模云厂商正在往1.6T升级。 所以800G的需求实际上会持续增长…… 然后还有分析师传言说$AAOI在和$AMD / $NVDA洽谈。考虑到所有人都在抢产能排期到2028年，这其实挺符合预期的。 英伟达总是先动手，然后像EML那样卡住其他人的瓶颈，所以如果这次有另一家超大规模云厂商吸取了教训，也不奇怪吧？ 另外，似乎所有人都在按规模量产后ASP下降来做模型。但如果明年上半年真的像预期那样成为主要瓶颈…… 那可能就会出现意料之外的涨价 + 利润率全面扩张，$AAOI、$LITE 以及其他标的都还没把这点计入模型。
- English · 原文$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 看起来既是明年 CPO 的关卡，又是它的瓶颈。 总能看到非技术人员发布的信息，完全忽略了各种细节。 下面说说原因： 1. CW 激光器受到 $LITE 财报所显示的瓶颈制约。 激光晶圆厂的大量产能都被分配给了 EML，很可能来自 $NVDA 之前的合同。 → 住友电工/古河电气 = 瓶颈 → Win Semi = 瓶颈 $SIVE 做的是 Fab-lite 模式，那它算不算瓶颈？ 是的，$SIVE 就卡在这个激光瓶颈里，因为他们很早就掌控了从 Win Semi 和其他晶圆厂流出的 CW 激光器产能分配权（CEO 说过他们也在与其他厂商合作，增加更多产能）。 完美的例子是 Kioxia/Sandisk。$SNDK 控制着 NAND 的产出，所以他们就是瓶颈，因为他们控制着最终定价。 Ayar、Jabil、其他可插拔模块厂商，加上 Nvidia NVLink CPO 生态，需求超过了供给……最终激光器供应掌握在 $SIVE 手里，这就让 Sivers 成了瓶颈。 $SIVE 很可能也是 Jabil、Gen-1 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial，以及其他超大规模 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线的主供或唯一来源。所以绕不开它（单通道 CW 激光器没法热替换掉 Sivers）。 2. $SIVE 是 CPO 的关卡。 $NVDA 用的是 $COHR、$LITE（后者很可能从日本竞争对手那里外购 CW 产能）。 $AVGO 很可能也是垂直整合的。 然而：它周围整个生态，从 ASIC 项目（Marvell、AlChip 等）到商用项目（Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence），很可能都是围绕 $SIVE 设计的。 比如 Ayar，2022 年可能尝试过从 $MTSI / $LITE 做多源采购，但它们的激光器在阵列规格上可能达不到 Sivers 的水平（最近他们从供应链网站上去掉了 Lumentum / Macom）。 如果至少在初期几代产品中没有替代方案（显然他们正在努力做多源采购），那就让 $SIVE 成了激光器领域一个结构性的、必须通过的关卡。 即使看看 $JBL 设计的 1.6T LRO，他们也通过围绕 $SIVE（可能是唯一来源）的性能，建立了一道“巨大的护城河”。 $SIVE 也是 $GFS 的代工厂级参考激光器设计，而你的超大规模客户（比如 $AMD，Gen1 很可能用的是 Sivers + 也许还有 Ayar）都在用 $GFS： 如果每一个尚未实现垂直整合的主要玩家（Nvidia/Broadcom）都在 CPO 中使用 Sivers…… 那他们就构成了一个关卡。 看看整个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态的合作伙伴：每一个都很可能在使用 Sivers。而且它们全都用 $GFS（Sivers 在这里是默认参考设计）。 所以当 CPO 在 2027 年下半年真正起量时，$SIVE 既是关卡又是瓶颈，而这次 CPO 是有史以来最大的架构变革之一（根据高盛研究报告，TAM 从接近 $0 到未来 1 年半内变成 $81B 或 $91B）。 这就是为什么我说 $SIVE 看起来像未来的 $75B 体量的 $LITE，会在未来几年内实现。 这一切都将在明年上演。 而它现在的市值，还不到一家拿着 $50M 采购协议、把 Sivers 的激光器买回来重新包装的公司。
- English · 原文its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.中文 · 翻译供应链已经确认了。我之前就知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资方，所以我觉得他们应该是想在 NVLink 生态这类方向上寻求战略合作。 $AMD 也投了 Ayar，那 $AMD 找 $GFS 做 CPO 这事儿，再加上 Ayar 这边的关系，基本上把 $SIVE 串起来就很容易推理了。 联发科和 $INTC 原来也是 Ayar 的投资方，联发科还在做谷歌的 ASIC。 所以按这个逻辑推下去，接下来可能很快就会有 $SIVE 进入 $GOOGL 供应链的更多消息。
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?中文 · 翻译这可能是整个公司历史上最关键的事件。 今天，一家光子学公司发布了它。 让它成为 CPO、可插拔模块和硅光子的功能性标准激光器。 对于像 $NVDA、$AVGO、$AMD，到 $MRVL 这类使用代工的公司来说。 有人知道名字吗？
- English · 原文They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream中文 · 翻译他们傻吗？ $JBL 宣布需求大于供应，这预示着 $SIVE 的激光器将进入大规模量产。 Ayar 筹集了 5 亿美元用于量产放量，并放弃了 $LITE 和 $MTSI，转投 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。 $AMD 选择了 $GFS，并且有很大概率在它们的 CPO 计划中使用 Sivers 的产品。 Sivers 还暗示了并购的可能，这会大幅扩展下游的可触达市场。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
AMD 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：