ASML阿斯麦 ADR

历史观点（2 条，最新在上）

1. 2026/06/22 10:33提及跳转 X 原文 →
   English · 原文

   As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.

   中文 · 翻译

   关于 $LPK：如果要猜的话，等他们全面放量后，市值大概在 30-50 亿美元还算合理。 对我来说这感觉更不对称，因为这就是个等待游戏，而且玻璃基板的客户他们已经拿到了。 小型设备供应商的瓶颈通常会被 TAM 限制住，规模很难到 200 亿美元以上，除非你是 ASML，或者像 KLAC 那样掌握多个瓶颈环节。 在放量前市值还这么小、能称得上“垄断”的标的真不多： 可能有的例子： - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~80 亿美元 - Towa (压缩邦定) ~20 亿美元 - Techwing (内存 handler / 晶圆级探针) ~15 亿美元 - MSScorps (CPO 检测)，但还在放量前。8.5 亿美元 - Riber (量子 MBE)，非常早期 ~3.5 亿美元 然后 LPK Laser 做玻璃核心基板（即将放量），市值约 7.3 亿美元，按主题来说应该比内存设备有更高溢价（比如主要先进封装转型、CPO 相关等）。 我还知道不少冷门化工垄断标的，但那些不太受关注，因为 BOM 比设备低得多。 但 LPK 的情况是： 比如：“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户已选定 LPKF 设备”。 在玻璃基板放量中，TGV 的 LIDE 市占率目标 70%，这应该非常关键。（披露：持仓，上面列的名字除了 Techwing/Aixtron 都有，非投资建议）。 如果你看看 $AEHR 现在走到大约 35 亿美元市值，LPK 的路径大概就是： - < 5 亿美元：“哦他们没客户！” --->（大概现在就在这中间某处）。 - < 15 亿美元：“可能放量快来了！” - 30 亿美元以上：“看起来他们开始放量了。” 这是我个人经验里对瓶颈设备供应商周期循环的一个教训。
2. 2026/06/21 03:32提及跳转 X 原文 →
   English · 原文

   Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars: Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics. Not cheap Nike sock exports. With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto, over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards… Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work. Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US. Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea. But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.

   中文 · 翻译

   特朗普政府大概现在才意识到，打赢贸易战的关键—— 在于前沿供应链，比如量子计算、AI、机器人。 而不是那些便宜的耐克袜子出口。 因为 $ASML、$TOWA、$LPK、味之素， 这些公司分布在日本、欧盟、台湾、韩国等地，手握所有筹码…… 毕竟每个国家都掌握着不同的垄断环节和卡脖子技术，是让这些产业运转所必需的。 而这些环节恰好都 **不在美国境内**。 对所有贸易伙伴加征关税，结果证明不是个好主意。 但我觉得还不算太晚——如果特朗普想谈成更好的贸易协议，现在修复关系、通过合作伙伴把全球供应链武器化，还来得及。