AVGO博通
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
AVGO 整体偏多（看多 2 · 看空 0）
博通利润将增长，但其从需求增长中获得的相对收益将远低于其他供应链参与者。
最近发言：2026/08/18 14:03 · 信心分 4/10
8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及
历史观点（13 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.中文 · 翻译从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 的走势来看，AI 半导体板块现在是下跌的。那些高贝塔值的股票，看起来跌得最惨。 从我观察过的光学股走势来看，$LITE / $COHR 回升得最快，接着是像 $AAOI / $AXTI 这种体量更大但贝塔值仍然很高的股票（恢复了一半）。 然后像 $SIVE / $POET 这类股票，恢复时间最长。但我确实看到，当市场风险偏好提升，或者财报迫使市场重新估值的时候，这些股票的反弹会更猛。
- English · 原文As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.中文 · 翻译至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。 我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。 也许其他主题也可以照做。
- English · 原文Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.中文 · 翻译只是关于 $AAOI 财报的一些太长不看笔记： - 预计在未来几周内，其超大规模客户将完成 1.6T 产品的全面认证 （有助于营收增长 #2，时间线） - 仍然相信 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心光模块生产能力 （在竞争对手可能被禁之际，重申雄心） - 预计 InP 产能设施将于 2027 年初投产 （关于进一步增长的时间线 FYI） - 总产能接近每月 20 万片/单位，到年底 800G/1.6T 产能将达到每月 65 万片/单位。到 2027 年底，将达到 93 万片/单位 （这就是我希望看到的增长） - “增加我们外部光源或 ELSFP 的制造能力。这是为了共同封装光学（CPO）。”我们预计将在今年晚些时候和 2027 年逐步提高产量，最终在 2028 年达到每月约 40 万片 （需要一些时间把这个模型化为营收） - “正如我们之前提到的，我们内部生产激光器已经很多年了。这使我们能够避免行业中其他人所面临的一些短缺” （在 CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合看涨案例） - 我们相信，未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器需求的增长 （CPO 行业的论点得到验证） - “实现我们非 GAAP 毛利率回到 40% 左右的长期目标” - “第二季度末，我们总现金等价物为 5.088 亿美元” 我需要再次核实 ATM 是否已完成。 - “我们交付营收的能力，特别是 800G 产品的能力，目前受到我们生产能力的限制。”“如果我们能生产更多，我们现在就能出货更多” 需求 > 供应得到验证。 - “大部分增加的产能将在美国。即便如此，我还是要说，就像我一直强调的，这对客户需求来说还不够。客户需求比这高出 20%-40%。” 整个光子学领域的巨大需求得到验证，对 $LITE、$SIVE / $JBL 等公司的影响令人惊叹。 - “未来两三年内不会，特别是需求如此之大。好吗？即使把 AI、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 全部加起来，未来几年也很难满足客户需求” 更多光学领域需求得到验证。 - CPO 时间线：“如果你说的是（CPO 市场）真正的高产量制造商，我会说是明年第三季度末左右”，并且“我们一直在与至少五家客户密切合作” 如果你关心目前的财报（我并没有密切关注） 营收：1.91 亿美元 vs. 1.90 亿美元 每股收益：0.06 美元 vs. 0.02 美元 太长不看：整个激光 + 光学领域需求异常旺盛。某种程度上支持了 Lumentum CEO 关于激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重的说法。 2027 年产能增长按计划进行。与时间线匹配的拐点期大约在明年年初，正如他们上次财报电话会议中提到的。 $AAOI 现在有客户了。限制在于生产足够的激光器和光模块。
- English · 原文It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.中文 · 翻译这事儿其实更复杂一些。简单来说，$AMD 的旧金山活动就在明天，周三/周四（7 月 22、23 日）。 根据 Jefferies 的客户报告，$AMD 预计会披露更多关于他们可能的大规模 CPO（共同封装光学）路线图 + MI500 的信息。 如果他们确认走 CPO 路线，那从主题上来说是利好，因为它表明不只是 $NVDA 在推动这一转变。 至于 $SIVE，如果他们直接进入 $AMD 的供应链，我们就能了解得更清楚。 因为目前，我们有可能通过 $GFS（据报道参与了 $AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 $AYAR（$AMD 投资的公司）来推断，但还没有官方确认。 所以如果你正在关注： - CPO 主题积极面：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光学 UALink。 - $AMD 透露 MI500 CPO 将使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE：考虑到 $SIVE 是上游激光供应商/参考激光，这对于 $SIVE 来说将是极其积极的。 目前，Jefferies 的 Blayne Curtis 预计 $AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，并与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节在这里： “我们正在关注 $AMD 是否承诺采用基于 CPO 的扩展解决方案，以及谁将提供光学引擎。” 我们将在周三/周四获得更广泛的供应链信息，今天下结论还为时过早。
- English · 原文Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.中文 · 翻译Trendforce重申了一些关于玻璃基板，很有用的时间线（来源：Trendforce）： - SKC Absolics (011790) 2026年下半年（先行者，与 $AMAT 合作）- $AMD 的客户 - Samsung electromechanics 2027年下半年 (009150)，与 Sumitomo Chem (4005) 合作 - Apple / $AVGO / 超大规模厂商 关于 $INTC 2030年的报告，我就不清楚了，到时候看吧。 不过，$TSM CoPoS 说2-3年那个，从台积电董事长最近的评论来看确实是对的。Innolux 是个有意思的受益方。$SHMD 也应该会受益于台积电，但它财务状况实在有点糟糕。 同样的参与者应该会多次出现，比如 Innolux + SKC。 这也适用于 $LPK 以及围绕这些产能爬坡的上游设备供应商。
- English · 原文Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)中文 · 翻译市场回调的时候还挺有意思的。 从 $NVDA 跌 4.87% 到 $MU 跌 7.03%。高贝塔票像 $PL 直接跌了 22.02%。 挺好笑的，媒体总在那拼命解释，比如： "博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录暴跌" 博通预测需求旺盛到 2028 年，纯粹是编故事。AI 基建这边除了资本支出在增加，什么都没变。 真正实质性的变化是加息概率上升了。 但每年总有那么几次，在大涨新高之后冒出这类随机回调。 我个人不会去押注美联储决策的概率，继续拿着现有公司指引的仓位（比如 $AAOI 2027 上半年 4.71 亿美元）。
- English · 原文$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 看起来既是明年 CPO 的关卡，又是它的瓶颈。 总能看到非技术人员发布的信息，完全忽略了各种细节。 下面说说原因： 1. CW 激光器受到 $LITE 财报所显示的瓶颈制约。 激光晶圆厂的大量产能都被分配给了 EML，很可能来自 $NVDA 之前的合同。 → 住友电工/古河电气 = 瓶颈 → Win Semi = 瓶颈 $SIVE 做的是 Fab-lite 模式，那它算不算瓶颈？ 是的，$SIVE 就卡在这个激光瓶颈里，因为他们很早就掌控了从 Win Semi 和其他晶圆厂流出的 CW 激光器产能分配权（CEO 说过他们也在与其他厂商合作，增加更多产能）。 完美的例子是 Kioxia/Sandisk。$SNDK 控制着 NAND 的产出，所以他们就是瓶颈，因为他们控制着最终定价。 Ayar、Jabil、其他可插拔模块厂商，加上 Nvidia NVLink CPO 生态，需求超过了供给……最终激光器供应掌握在 $SIVE 手里，这就让 Sivers 成了瓶颈。 $SIVE 很可能也是 Jabil、Gen-1 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial，以及其他超大规模 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线的主供或唯一来源。所以绕不开它（单通道 CW 激光器没法热替换掉 Sivers）。 2. $SIVE 是 CPO 的关卡。 $NVDA 用的是 $COHR、$LITE（后者很可能从日本竞争对手那里外购 CW 产能）。 $AVGO 很可能也是垂直整合的。 然而：它周围整个生态，从 ASIC 项目（Marvell、AlChip 等）到商用项目（Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence），很可能都是围绕 $SIVE 设计的。 比如 Ayar，2022 年可能尝试过从 $MTSI / $LITE 做多源采购，但它们的激光器在阵列规格上可能达不到 Sivers 的水平（最近他们从供应链网站上去掉了 Lumentum / Macom）。 如果至少在初期几代产品中没有替代方案（显然他们正在努力做多源采购），那就让 $SIVE 成了激光器领域一个结构性的、必须通过的关卡。 即使看看 $JBL 设计的 1.6T LRO，他们也通过围绕 $SIVE（可能是唯一来源）的性能，建立了一道“巨大的护城河”。 $SIVE 也是 $GFS 的代工厂级参考激光器设计，而你的超大规模客户（比如 $AMD，Gen1 很可能用的是 Sivers + 也许还有 Ayar）都在用 $GFS： 如果每一个尚未实现垂直整合的主要玩家（Nvidia/Broadcom）都在 CPO 中使用 Sivers…… 那他们就构成了一个关卡。 看看整个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态的合作伙伴：每一个都很可能在使用 Sivers。而且它们全都用 $GFS（Sivers 在这里是默认参考设计）。 所以当 CPO 在 2027 年下半年真正起量时，$SIVE 既是关卡又是瓶颈，而这次 CPO 是有史以来最大的架构变革之一（根据高盛研究报告，TAM 从接近 $0 到未来 1 年半内变成 $81B 或 $91B）。 这就是为什么我说 $SIVE 看起来像未来的 $75B 体量的 $LITE，会在未来几年内实现。 这一切都将在明年上演。 而它现在的市值，还不到一家拿着 $50M 采购协议、把 Sivers 的激光器买回来重新包装的公司。
- English · 原文No, people are misinterpreting $AVGO CEO comments. Demand is insatiable in general, but hyperscalers don't want to be bottlenecked, so it's inevitable $GOOGL and others multi-source. Broadcom's bottom line keeps increasing, but because the pie keeps increasing, Mediatek, Marvell, AlChip, and all the others will benefit too. But the latter much more than Broadcom.中文 · 翻译不，大家都误解了 $AVGO CEO 的说法。 整体来说需求是无穷无尽的，但超大规模云厂商不想被卡脖子，所以 $GOOGL 和其他家必然会搞多源采购。 博通的底线是在不断提升，但因为整个蛋糕在变大，联发科、Marvell、AlChip 和所有其他玩家也都会跟着受益。 只不过后者的受益程度远大于博通。
- English · 原文Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins” “Demand for … networking is simply insatiable” Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable. - “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now” positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028 - The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. $META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines - “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.” Just for the GW modelers. - “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026” OpenAI custom program timeline - “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.” More about the demand ramp, go brrr - “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them” Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked. There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol. TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.中文 · 翻译随手记几条 $AVGO 财报电话会议的零散笔记 - 营收目标重申（2027 年 1000 亿美元以上，市场明显是希望这次财报能上调的，所以股价跌了） 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋说过，$MRVL 会是一家围绕网络/连接/互联的 1 万亿美元公司吗？ - “随着 TPU 继续加速，整体利润率会有压力。 但连接这一块，AI 网络业务，利润率非常丰厚。” “对……网络的需求简直是无法满足。” 对 $LITE 和其他玩家也是非常正面的连锁反应。不过 TPU 的利润率随着规模扩大而下降，这可以理解。 - “他们下的订单量相当庞大，这基本上给了我们更多的能见度……现在排单一直排到 2028 年。” 考虑到现在是 2026 年，而订单已经排到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 需求是个正面信号。 - 首个 1 吉瓦的订单——包含 XPU 和我们的网络——已经收到，将在 2027 年下半年开始交付。另外两家客户，我们预计出货从 2026 年底开始，并在 2027 年加速。 $META 定制 AI 项目的时间线是 2027 年下半年。 - “我们的收入，每吉瓦的内容会增加。当你开始大量把 CPU 内核嵌入到同样的 XPU 里，让这些芯片基本上变成带大量 HVM 的多裸片结构。” 这是给那些喜欢算吉瓦模型的人看的。 - “对于 OpenAI，我们已经交付了芯片，并将在 2026 年底按期量产。” OpenAI 定制项目时间线。 - “如果你问 27 年或 28 年，那会持续增长。我们实际上预计 28 年相比 27 年的预测会有大幅增长。” 更多关于需求加速的信息，冲冲冲。 - “对于 Google，我们预计他们会有多元化的来源。” 联发科 (2454) 是主要受益方，可能还有 $MRVL。不过这个预期已经在股价里了——Google 不会只依赖单一来源，以免被卡脖子。 AI 需求的能见度一直延伸到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 板块是看多的。不管怎样，博通这周收盘涨跌持平，哈哈。 太长不看版：强烈看多 AI 需求，尤其是网络部分。股票不会直线向上，但需求曲线从 2026 年→2027 年→2028 年一直往上走。
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?中文 · 翻译这可能是整个公司历史上最关键的事件。 今天，一家光子学公司发布了它。 让它成为 CPO、可插拔模块和硅光子的功能性标准激光器。 对于像 $NVDA、$AVGO、$AMD，到 $MRVL 这类使用代工的公司来说。 有人知道名字吗？
- English · 原文@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.中文 · 翻译@wangxindian @StormDirac 我感觉大家还没意识到 $GFS 这条新闻的分量。 它可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更根本性地具有突破性。 因为所有经过 GFS 硅光子的公司，像是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA，默认的参考设计里都嵌着 $SIVE。
- English · 原文I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.中文 · 翻译从没想过有一天会看到 $GOOGL 需要募集 800 亿美元搞 AI 资本开支…… 接着沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 又给超大规模 AI 基建砸钱。 - 400 亿 ATM（在架发行），300 亿增发，伯克希尔 100 亿 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO 到联发科到 $TSM 到 $MU 的上游生态应该要起飞了。 不过谷歌的股东们恐怕没那么开心，因为这么大手笔的资本开支不是靠自由现金流撑起来的。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
AVGO 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：