EWYiShares 韩国 ETF
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- English · 原文OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.中文 · 翻译我当然知道。但我个人睡得挺安稳，因为我对自己的超大规模数据中心映射研究有底气，而且持有 $SIVE。 没错，我还是拿着那一百多万股的头寸。 不知道大家有没有意识到：我来这里就是分享我的想法和观点。 我控制不了市场波动，也管不了你们怎么做决定，更左右不了市场对新信息整合的反应。 对分析师来说，最安全的做法就是摩根士丹利/摩根大通/高盛一出报告就跟着附和，然后总结一下。 而不是自己从开源情报（OSINT）映射里琢磨新想法，再等它们被验证。 因为当你发现一个新角度时： 每个人都在激烈争论 4-6 英寸磷化铟晶圆厂、员工数量、他们的超大规模客户是谁、产能爬坡时间线等等，就为了跟你唱反调。 然后还要时刻盯着每一个 5%-20% 的价格波动。 我不得不更频繁地讨论这个标的，因为它还没被充分验证，而且总是有激烈的争论。就像 2 月的 $EWY，我当时做了内存预测，还分析了氦气/液化天然气/石油。 但几个月后，大家看到内存结构变得稳固（美光签了 16 份以上的长期协议），液化天然气也没把 SK 海力士的利润打下来。 还有去年的 $NBIS，当时在谈分部估值/摊薄结构 vs $IREN。 现在它接近历史新高，还进了 $QQQ 指数。 我本人只是在等 Sivers 在 2027 年产能爬坡，并在纳斯达克上市来支持他们的并购活动。 这样他们就能走 $LITE 当年的路——从 30 亿美元市值涨到 600 亿美元以上。
- English · 原文Bank of America looks like the malicious equivalent of Bernstein/Jim Cramer to retail. - said $KOSPI / $EWY was an extreme bubble, compared it to Silver crash back in March, causing retail to sell positions. The index proceeded to close to double and hit ATHs since that call. - saying “BoA expects 3 rate hikes in 2026”, Close to 0% chance on derivative markets and causes retail panic. While Trump administration calling for rate cuts. Absolutely harmful behavior from a US bank publishing this garbage to retail investors.中文 · 翻译美国银行看起来就像伯恩斯坦/吉姆·克莱默对散户的恶毒版本。 - 说 $KOSPI / $EWY 是极端泡沫，把它比作三月份的银价崩盘，导致散户卖出持仓。 自那之后，该指数几乎翻倍并创下历史新高。 - 又说“美银预计2026年将有3次加息”， 衍生品市场显示概率接近0%，却引发散户恐慌——而特朗普政府正在呼吁降息。 一家美国银行向散户投资者发布这种垃圾信息，绝对是危害行为。
- English · 原文@KristupasSimon2 Went long on Samsung through $EWY earlier on. Still think it’s cheap given operating income forecasts. https://t.co/l0VvosFlVE中文 · 翻译@KristupasSimon2 之前通过 $EWY 做多了三星。 考虑到营业利润预期，我仍然觉得它便宜。 https://t.co/l0VvosFlVE
- English · 原文Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.中文 · 翻译提醒一下：三个月前，X 上 99% 的人都在看空存储… 从那以后： $MU $380 → $1122（+195.26%） $SNDK $565 → $2155（+281.42%） $EWY $132 → $219（+65.91%） SK 海力士 849K → 2,685,000 韩元（+215.5%） 三星 172K → 362,000 韩元（+110.7%） 如果你看到一堆关于存储股的预测，比如三星 2028 年要成为全球最赚钱的公司之类。 这时候最好跳出当下的叙事框架独立想想，别被"石油、LNG、氦气、伊朗"这些话题带偏。 现在那些光模块股和它们到 2027、2028 年的预测，大概率也是同样情况。 不过我确实觉得光电和存储是当下两个最重要的主题，只不过光电在这一轮超级周期里还处于非常早期的阶段。
- English · 原文@schwabdeeznuts Yeah my $EWY leaps are up a similar amount, but I did 2028 dates. Pretty insane gains on the South Korean index!中文 · 翻译@schwabdeeznuts 是啊，我的 $EWY 长期看涨期权也涨了差不多，不过我买的是 2028 年到期的。 韩国指数涨得真是离谱！
- English · 原文I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.中文 · 翻译我早就说过 $MU 看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。现在市值都到 1.23 万亿了。 从 2025 年那会儿就开始更多讨论三星电子 / SK 海力士了。 今年 1 月就更集中布局存储这个方向，比如 $SNDK 和其他几只。 我很开心美光 + 存储这条线的预测，行情正在应验！ 希望 $EWY 的多头仓位，大家也赚得开心，涨了很多。
- English · 原文I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.中文 · 翻译我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。 现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。 连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。 但那些接盘的还不肯承认。 我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。 要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？ 光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。 但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。 而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。
- English · 原文$EWY 32% IV into 58% IV expansion trade. Into underlying SK Hynix / Samsung increase way ITM. Was such a goated call? (~383% return) Had way too many great ideas this year… Still super proud of predicting South Korea index volatility increase due to memory concentration https://t.co/Kjur1bdKp7中文 · 翻译$EWY 32% IV 到 58% IV 扩张的交易。 往底层 SK 海力士 / 三星方向大幅虚值增值。 这波操作是不是太神了？（~383% 回报） 今年好点子实在太多了…… 但还是超自豪，因为预测到了韩国指数因存储集中度上升而波动加剧。https://t.co/Kjur1bdKp7
- English · 原文For people out there citing Bank of America quotes now about selling. Just remember: They said $EWY/ KOSPI (SK Hynix/Samsung) was an extreme bubble back in March. And blamed retail for the cause, then implied they should sell Korean memory equities: comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis, .com bubble, and Silver crash. Then shortly after retail sold their longs, memory rallied to all time highs. Institutions are not your friends. Usually when an unusual flood of negative news, they need liquidity.中文 · 翻译给那些现在引用美银说要卖的人： 记住一点就行。 他们三月份说 $EWY/ KOSPI（SK 海力士/三星）是极端泡沫。 然后怪散户是元凶，暗示散户应该卖掉韩国存储半导体股票，还拿这跟 2008 年金融危机、互联网泡沫和白银崩盘比。 结果散户刚刚清仓多头头寸，存储半导体就涨到了历史新高。 机构不是你的朋友。 通常当负面消息异常密集涌出来的时候，是他们需要流动性。
- English · 原文Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO中文 · 翻译哦你看……$NVDA 的 CEO 警告说，由于 AI 基础设施的规模需求激增，内存短缺预计会持续很多年。 明天还会有更多公告。 $MU 和 $EWY（三星 / SK 海力士）的营业利润预期，现在看起来也没那么夸张了吧？https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
- English · 原文@LLTHTRS I did all my DD on memory earlier this year. I’m just letting my thesis get validated like my $EWY longs which are up 480%.中文 · 翻译@LLTHTRS 我今年年初就把所有关于存储的功课都做完了。 我就是在等我的投资逻辑得到验证，就像我那涨了 480% 的 $EWY 多头一样。
- English · 原文And a few months later... my $EWY leaps are now up 485%. From IV expansion and directional memory longs. Unfortunately I did see a lot of people sell during the Iran volatility, due to doomposting everywhere on X. But returns going long on the memory sector from Samsing SK Hynix / $MU have been absolutely disgusting to watch. If you can model Samsung / SK Hynix becoming the most profitable companies in the world in 2028... Maybe it's a good idea to just embrace the volatility and let that thesis play out.中文 · 翻译几个月后……我的 $EWY 长期期权已经涨了 485%。 靠的是波动率扩张和方向性记忆芯片多头。 可惜的是，我看到很多人因为 X 上到处是末日论，在伊朗那波波动时卖掉了。 但做多记忆芯片板块——从三星、SK Hynix / $MU 拿到的回报，简直好看到离谱。 如果你能推算出三星 / SK Hynix 在 2028 年成为全球最赚钱的公司…… 那也许就该拥抱波动，让这个逻辑自然兑现。
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？