HIMX奇景光电 ADR
1看多1看空2提及
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
HIMX 观点中性（看多 1 · 看空 1）
未来面临被踢出 CPO 供应链的风险，可能被台积电采钰等巨头垂直整合，但短期有光纤阵列机遇。
最近发言：2026/07/04 18:02 · 信心分 4/10
8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及
历史观点（4 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文UDN Money report "殺翻光通訊後 SemiAnalysis 惹議 業界揭其劣跡 許多公司慘遭魔手": - SemiAnalysis, released a report in June, questioning the timing of the launch of the CPO on the grounds of low yield and delay, which caused the photonics sector to collapse. - The agency then partnered with Tema to launch a photonics ETF. - The shares held in the ETF under the trading code LAZR happened to be the photonics stocks that were mentioned negatively in the report $HIMX and $LITE, which were specifically targeted negatively in their article "Powered Down, Lights Off", have been bought in Semianalysis and Tema's new ETF after the optical sector crash.中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文@256_rc -> Writes bearish report, specifically calling out $HIMX and $LITE -> Proceeds to add $HIMX and $LITE their actively managed ETF after they drop -25-40%. op strategy.中文 · 翻译@256_rc → 写了一份看空报告，特别点名了 $HIMX 和 $LITE → 之后在它们跌了 25-40% 之后，把 $HIMX 和 $LITE 加到了他主动管理的 ETF 里。 神操作。
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译基本就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户入场早，完全抢先了机构，抓住了下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在你看到摩根大通、富达研究部等一些活跃机构都出现在了股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生了同样的事。 > 我
- English · 原文几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
HIMX 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：