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历史观点（17 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.中文 · 翻译这次回调对我来说个人就像个明确的买入机会，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM。 因为我们在没有任何新的实质宏观经济数据（周四才出）的情况下，就因为“3次加息”这种扯淡叙事经历了一波猛跌。 如果机构真的相信美银抛出来的“3次加息”这种卖方垃圾： 它们会在 CME/预测市场上借此获利。 而市场仍在预测7月有74%的概率不加息。但它们并没有这么做。 所以它们是在给散户投资者喂屎。
- English · 原文$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the possibility of xfab moving to HVM. On their silicon photonics foundry w/ photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC for TFLN on SOI. Regardless I’m bullish too on XFAB and curious where it heads.中文 · 翻译$XFAB 被 Bernstein 上调至跑赢大盘，目标价从 €5 升至 €12.8。 好吧，我原谅你 Bernstein，在铠侠和英特尔这事上。 我还是觉得这不过是跟着汽车复苏、SiC/功率半导体爬坡做的被动目标价调整。 而且可能远远低估了潜力……如果市场开始计价 XFAB 进入 HVM（高量产）的可能性的话。 毕竟他们在硅光电子代工这块，跟 photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC 合作搞 TFLN-on-SOI。 不管怎样，我也看好 XFAB，好奇它会走向何方。
- English · 原文Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS中文 · 翻译哇，$TSEM 今天涨了 10% 以上。 好日子，回头想想三月份就该把它弄成我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这些晶圆代工厂最近涨得飞起。https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
- English · 原文@LipBuTan1 @seokhee4 @intel $INTC just casually out there assembling the Avengers.中文 · 翻译@LipBuTan1 @seokhee4 @intel $INTC 就这么不经意地从暗处把复仇者联盟给攒起来了。
- English · 原文Trump announced Intel + Apple partnership, sending $INTC up 8% today. Intel execs were reportedly surprised by the $AAPL announcement by Donald Trump. TBH, the President should lead Intel's marketing team at this point. Feel's like he's hard carrying the stock. https://t.co/eCSS46U6eb中文 · 翻译特朗普宣布英特尔+苹果合作，今天$INTC涨了8%。 据报道，英特尔高管对唐纳德·特朗普宣布$AAPL的消息感到意外。 说实话，总统真该去当英特尔的营销主管。 感觉他就像在硬扛这只股票。https://t.co/eCSS46U6eb
- English · 原文@0xara5h I said their $INTC $36 PT report was super troll back in Jan And Intel went up triple digits after that. https://t.co/DxsN3eppLx中文 · 翻译@0xara5h 我说过他们那个 $36 的 $INTC 目标价报告，一月份那会儿超级扯。 后来英特尔涨了三倍多。https://t.co/DxsN3eppLx
- English · 原文Bernstein is legit the dumbest analyst firm I’ve seen calling for a 50% crash in Kioxia. They gave $INTC a $36 PT back in Jan and now it’s $118. Good lesson to ignore institutional reports that get published for retail consumption. They’re not here to help retail investors.中文 · 翻译Bernstein 绝对是我见过最蠢的分析公司，居然预测 Kioxia 要暴跌 50%。 今年一月他们给 $INTC 的目标价是 $36，现在都 $118 了。 这是个好教训，别理会那些面向散户发表的机构报告。 他们可不是来帮散户投资者的。
- English · 原文@ratna555 I see the Lightmatter/Ayar type companies, probably going higher than $5B if they IPO. Since they're both part of $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem, heavy backers like NVidia/Intel/AMD/Google, and popular theme.中文 · 翻译@ratna555 我看好那些 Lightmatter/Ayar 类型的公司，如果它们 IPO 的话，估值很可能超过 50 亿美元。 毕竟它们都属于 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统的一部分，背后有像 NVIDIA/Intel/AMD/Google 这样的重量级投资方，又是当下热门的题材。
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)中文 · 翻译随便瞎想：$JBL 看起来是个挺有吸引力的长期标的，市值 $380 亿。 我不太觉得市场已经把他们在 1.6T LRO 可插拔收发器业务上的潜力算进去了。 特别是如果问题的关键是 "以 $SIVE 为瓶颈的 2027 年上半年，你能赚多少"，而不是 "需求够不够大"。 他们已经铺好了庞大的供应链……而且接手了 $INTC 的可插拔产线。 相比 $AAOI 靠融资砸钱建激光晶圆厂，这套模式似乎更可规模化——只要你手里有 $SIVE，再加上一堆不同的晶圆厂（比如 Win Semi 和其他）一起量产激光器，剩下的交给 $JBL 搞定。 那你等于白捡了一个类似 Innolight 的架构（还带美国溢价），而且已经有一条经过超大规模客户验证的供应链。 我现在没持仓，只是抛个想法，供别人去做研究。 大概 2027 年上半年大家才会开始反应过来。可能 40% 的重新定价听起来合理？ （目前没有任何持仓，纯粹是个想法）
- English · 原文Still think this US list from $MRVL to $ARM to $INTC was goated. Just as a recap if new followers were wondering what US equities I like. Especially because I've been talking about international companies recently. https://t.co/tZGLrFEGoh中文 · 翻译还是觉得这条 $MRVL 到 $ARM 再到 $INTC 的美股名单很牛。 简单回顾一下，给新关注的人看看我喜欢哪些美股。 特别是我最近一直在聊国际公司。https://t.co/tZGLrFEGoh
- English · 原文Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.中文 · 翻译正好有很多关于玻璃基板的时间线被重申了（来源：Trendforce）： - SKC Absolics (011790) 2026 下半年（先行者 x $AMAT） - $AMD 的客户 - 三星电机 2027 下半年 (009150) x 住友化学 (4005) - 苹果 / $AVGO / 超大规模云厂商 至于 $INTC 2030 年的那些说法，我不清楚，等着看吧。 $TSM 的 CoPoS（基板级扇出封装）2-3 年的时程是对的，从最近台积电董事长的言论就能看出来。群创（Innolux）是个有趣的受益标的。$SHMD 理论上也该受益于台积电，但它的财务状况太糟糕了。 同样的玩家应该会反复出现，比如群创 + SKC。 这也适用于 $LPK 以及这些扩产周期里的上游设备供应商。
- English · 原文hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too positive for expontentially compounding revenue growth since hyperscalers were Nvidia's original main revenue stream (even indirect via Neoclouds). But $NVDA's kinda stalling everyone elses buildout by bottlenecking their programs eg. EML/laser capacity agreements years out too. And took stakes in $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC etc. making them adopt to $NVDA standards or just owning a large %. So even if they're delaying other programs + their biggest growth vector kinda falls off one day, like how things are shifting already shifting to ASICs for inference. They'll still probably be fine given ownership stakes + will serve companies/countries outside of hyperscaler cash cows (just less revenue)+ made so much before then. But that's probably why p/e keeps going down despite revenues going up, since idk if markets thinks that growth will last forever. Or could be totally wrong and they just keep leapfrogging generation by generation + AI pie keeps growing with Jensen's 4T 2030 capex number.中文 · 翻译嗯，长期来看，我更看好你提到的所有上游瓶颈环节，而不是 $NVDA，因为那些东西的估值重估空间最大（英伟达已经是全球最大公司了）。 我相当确信，超大规模云的 ASIC 最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求，就像 $GOOGL 的 TPU、$AMZN 的 Trainium 项目那样。这对指数级复利的营收增长可不太有利，因为超大规模云本来就是英伟达最初的主要收入来源（甚至通过 Neocloud 这种间接渠道也是）。 不过 $NVDA 也在卡别人脖子，拖慢大家的建设进度，比如把 EML/激光产能协议签到了好几年后。而且它还入股了 $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC 等公司，要么让它们采用 $NVDA 的标准，要么直接拿大头股份。 所以，哪怕它拖慢了其他项目 + 自己最大的增长引擎某天会熄火（就像现在推理已经在往 ASIC 转移了）， 考虑到它手里那一堆股权 + 还能继续服务超大规模现金牛之外的公司和国家（虽然收入会少一些）+ 之前早就赚得盆满钵满，它大概率还是能过得不错。 不过，这大概也是为什么它收入一直在涨、市盈率却持续走低的原因——大概市场也不确定这种增长能不能永远持续。 当然，也可能我完全错了，它们就是一代代持续领先 + AI 蛋糕持续做大，配合 Jensen 说的 2030 年 4 万亿 capex 目标。
- English · 原文its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.中文 · 翻译供应链已经确认了。我之前就知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资方，所以我觉得他们应该是想在 NVLink 生态这类方向上寻求战略合作。 $AMD 也投了 Ayar，那 $AMD 找 $GFS 做 CPO 这事儿，再加上 Ayar 这边的关系，基本上把 $SIVE 串起来就很容易推理了。 联发科和 $INTC 原来也是 Ayar 的投资方，联发科还在做谷歌的 ASIC。 所以按这个逻辑推下去，接下来可能很快就会有 $SIVE 进入 $GOOGL 供应链的更多消息。
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。
- English · 原文@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.中文 · 翻译@realstockfox 对，我挺确定的，$INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到 2029 年还会在…… 不需要不停买入新的/不同的美股仓位，就让你手里的那些随着时间慢慢复利就行。