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$622$743$864$985$110603/2704/2005/1206/0306/258254332
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历史观点（44 条，最新在上）

  1. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.
    中文 · 翻译
    我当然知道。但我个人睡得挺安稳，因为我对自己的超大规模数据中心映射研究有底气，而且持有 $SIVE。 没错，我还是拿着那一百多万股的头寸。 不知道大家有没有意识到：我来这里就是分享我的想法和观点。 我控制不了市场波动，也管不了你们怎么做决定，更左右不了市场对新信息整合的反应。 对分析师来说，最安全的做法就是摩根士丹利/摩根大通/高盛一出报告就跟着附和，然后总结一下。 而不是自己从开源情报（OSINT）映射里琢磨新想法，再等它们被验证。 因为当你发现一个新角度时： 每个人都在激烈争论 4-6 英寸磷化铟晶圆厂、员工数量、他们的超大规模客户是谁、产能爬坡时间线等等，就为了跟你唱反调。 然后还要时刻盯着每一个 5%-20% 的价格波动。 我不得不更频繁地讨论这个标的，因为它还没被充分验证，而且总是有激烈的争论。就像 2 月的 $EWY，我当时做了内存预测，还分析了氦气/液化天然气/石油。 但几个月后，大家看到内存结构变得稳固（美光签了 16 份以上的长期协议），液化天然气也没把 SK 海力士的利润打下来。 还有去年的 $NBIS，当时在谈分部估值/摊薄结构 vs $IREN。 现在它接近历史新高，还进了 $QQQ 指数。 我本人只是在等 Sivers 在 2027 年产能爬坡，并在纳斯达克上市来支持他们的并购活动。 这样他们就能走 $LITE 当年的路——从 30 亿美元市值涨到 600 亿美元以上。
  2. 看多重申跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.
    中文 · 翻译
    说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。 还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。 所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。 台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
  3. 看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.
    中文 · 翻译
    @Zenctwill $MU 的财报可能对 SK 海力士/三星有很好的参考意义，这两家占了 KOSPI 指数的大部分权重（被动资金也是）。所以 SK 指数走高的概率更大。 这对 AI 需求也是个积极的信号，这也是为什么 $LITE、$AAOI 和其他股票在盘后小幅上涨。
  4. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.
    中文 · 翻译
    好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
  5. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @SaiseiInvesting No, 0 clue why people invest in those types of ETFs. - You have the most basic names you can buy yourself like $LITE / $COHR as heaviest weights, where they take management fees. - Names not adjacent to AI DCs.
    中文 · 翻译
    @SaiseiInvesting 不，完全搞不懂为什么有人会买那种ETF。 - 里面最重的仓位就是些你自己就能买的普通标的，比如 $LITE / $COHR，它们还要收管理费。 - 还都是一些跟AI数据中心不沾边的公司。
  6. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @jeongpark0509 No price target, but I like to keep in mind: $LITE went from 2.88B MC in 2024, to $67B MC in 2026. Just took 2 years and $SIVE is around the same starting point as Lumentum today.
    中文 · 翻译
    @jeongpark0509 没给目标价，但我心里记得： $LITE 从 2024 年的 28.8 亿市值，涨到 2026 年的 670 亿市值。 也就花了两年，而 $SIVE 今天的起点跟 Lumentum 当初差不多。
  7. 看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    We're in a massive EML bottleneck right now and CW lasers are getting bottlenecked now too. To my knowledge, $COHR is buying EMLs off $LITE because they can't make enough. $LITE is majority allocated to EML, so they can't make enough CW lasers. So they're buying CW lasers off competitors from their ER transcript, (probably Sumitomo, Furukawa and others), which likely feeds into $NVDA contracts. Then $AMD and your hyperscalers need capacity too but we're already in a shortage. Any capacity that comes online would likely be bought, since looks like we're in a shortage for next few years (lumentum already sold out into 2028). Not quite the same as your sk hynix/samsung/micron memory dynamic but there's still a massive moat with EML with probably only single digit amounts of players able to do this.
    中文 · 翻译
    现在 EML 产能严重堵塞，CW 激光器也开始卡脖子了。 据我所知，$COHR 正从 $LITE 手里买 EML，因为他们自己产量不够。 $LITE 大部分产线都给了 EML，所以也没余力生产足够多的 CW 激光器。 于是他们（从财报电话会里透露）开始向竞争对手买 CW 激光器——可能是住友、古河等——而这些货源大概率最终流进 $NVDA 的订单里。 然后 $AMD 和你那些超大规模客户也急需产能，但我们早就供不应求了。 现在但凡有新产能上线，基本都会被抢光，因为看起来未来几年都会持续短缺（Lumentum 都已经卖到了 2028 年）。 这和 SK 海力士/三星/美光的存储芯片情况不太一样，但 EML 的护城河依然很深，能做的玩家可能一只手就数得过来。
  8. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.
    中文 · 翻译
    最近好多人在问我 OE Solutions (138080) 这家公司。 这是我目前的研究和想法： 这是一家韩国的小型光收发器公司，跟 $AAOI 有点像。 而且他们已经成为全球为数不多的 EML 玩家之一（比如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），手握稀缺的 100G EML 激光器产能，专门用于 800G/1.6T。 OE 看起来不光想造 EML，还想做完整的收发器。他们已经有了成品 ELSFP CPO 产品，配上 UHP CW 激光器，Q3 开始送样。 同样地，OE 似乎也在整完整的 ELSFP 方案，而不是只卖 CW 激光晶粒，这样能抢到更多市场份额。 所以你可以把它理解成"韩国版的 AAOI"，但用的是 EML 而不是 CW，产能和认证方面还差点火候，目前是在追赶世界其他玩家。 时间线上来看： 1. 23dBm 制冷的 ELSFP 样品，2026 年 Q3 开始送样 2. 800G 的销售基础，2027 年 1.6T "全面发力" 3. 2027 年 H2 末、2028 年 H1 及以后，ELSFP 可能进入放量生产 而且从他们 2025 年投资者简报片段来看，似乎还在搞 200G EML 能力——简报里提到"100GBaud EML / 200G PAM"。考虑到他们的 IP 和 demo，这个方向挺有戏。 ELS 才刚发布不久，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器大概率也是 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的光子学国家队，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和那些更大的玩家。 （持仓披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 仓位。这只是基本面研究，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。） 关于 OE Solutions 的估值： 1. 这些增长方向目前似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人真正理解他们在做什么。 3. 良率数据有些不清晰。 1. 客户方面：现在其实正处于 EML/CW 激光器大缺货周期，所以任何独立的产能都会被抢着要。我个人觉得他们找客户不难。我甚至认为他们造出来的东西可能都会被扫货，还会获得韩国政府的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为市值小 + 韩国上市，很多美国机构根本够不上门槛。我也觉得没多少人真正理解他们在搞什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 公布的晶圆/模组利用率很低（我记得大概有 31% 的产能闲置），所以他们在需要砸资本开支之前，光靠现有的产能就能产生可观的收入。 至于 EML/CW 以及其他良率，我也不太确定。可能得直接去问公司。 这是不是一家随便的烂公司？不是。人家做光收发器已经超过 20 年了，在美国和荷兰都有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长方向看起来要到明年才爆发，而且主要取决于产能和良率。 我个人觉得，如果 EML/CW 技术被收购的话，它的价值可能远超目前市值。 尤其是被那些想垂直整合 EML（用于可插拔模块）和 CW 激光器（用于 CPO）的大玩家收购。 市场可能在等 Q3 送样后的认证结果或者营收预期公告，才敢下定论。 总结我的想法： 去年就有朋友讨论过这家公司，当时可能太早了。两个月前看到评论区热闹起来，依然太早。 我现在还是觉得早，但到了 Q3 和 Q4 可能就会变得有意思起来。我个人认为它的风险比 $SIVE 这种深度嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和一堆超大规模供应商的 CPO 大玩家要高得多。$SIVE 还有 Win Semi 等公司在帮忙摊薄量产风险。 而 OE Solutions 看起来更像是一个新手玩家，想照着 $AAOI 的模式去造光收发器，但走的又是主权 EML 和 CW 激光器路线，面向 CPO 产品。 现在关于客户和量产爬坡的问题还有很多没解答，这本身就有实质风险。 但如果你相信韩国能建立 800G/1.6T 收发器 EML 供应链，以及带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP 方案。 那么 OE Solutions 或许值得一看。我还在继续研究这家公司，目前只是初步想法。
  9. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Yes, choosing the right theme is extremely important. Even if $POET doesn't really do anything, it still gets brought up thematically due to $LITE, $COHR, and others. Even if $RDDT outperforms extremely hard, it still gets brought down from $META, $MSFT, $CRM, and other software basket names.
    中文 · 翻译
    没错，选对主题极其重要。 就算 $POET 本身没什么动作，它也会因为 $LITE、$COHR 和其他股票而被带到主题上来。 就算 $RDDT 表现极其强势，它还是会因为 $META、$MSFT、$CRM 以及其他软件篮子里的票而被拖下来。
  10. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.
    中文 · 翻译
    不太理解为什么很多人对我的重仓多头 $AAOI 极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，一路涨到 $170 的时候都有人看空。（对，我就是觉得每个空头都错了，咱们看看最后谁对。） 他们有稀缺的激光产能，这正是 $AMD 和其他超大规模数据中心在找的。 而整个行业都被 $NVDA 卡着瓶颈。 加上他们有美国本土的收发器供应链，用于大规模生产 800g/1.6T（管理层表示——这是全美最大的）。 同时需求远超供给，而组装环节却外包到了亚洲。 然后他们给出的指引是，2027 年上半年到下半年过渡期间，月营收 4.71 亿美元。这相当于年化经常性收入 56 亿美元，而市值才 135 亿美元…… 而且到了 2028 年更晚的时候，还有大量重要的爆发量会出现。 至于波动，可能时不时会有 6 亿美元的活跃 ATM 增发被拿出来用。 再加上时不时冒出来的随机看空帖子和宏观因素，导致更大波动（比如某分析师报告因为假的 CPO 延迟传闻看空 $LITE，结果把板块内其他股票也带下来了）。 另外我们离那个时间点还有一年，所以时间线确实还有点早。 自打 $NBIS 之后，我就没见过这么快的营收爬坡。
  11. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @aletir99 When has US investors ever cared about what people in Sweden think? I still think $SIVE has the potential to be the next $75B $LITE if they follow the same M&A route after NASDAQ Listing.
    中文 · 翻译
    @aletir99 美国投资者什么时候在乎过瑞典人怎么想了？ 我仍然觉得 $SIVE 有潜力成为下一个 750 亿美元的 $LITE，只要他们上了纳斯达克之后走同样的并购路线。
  12. 看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.
    中文 · 翻译
    回顾一下2025年那些天马行空的想法，挺有意思的。 那个时候，$AAOI市值20亿美元，$LITE市值260亿美元，$AXTI市值5亿美元。 现在： - AAOI市值153.7亿美元 - Lumentum市值744.7亿美元 - AXT市值72.4亿美元 当时信息更少，毕竟还是个早期主题。 当然，随着更多细节浮出水面，ASIC项目的一些细微差别可能被我忽略了。 但方向上看，很高兴我的主题思路最终是正确的。 看着现在市值30亿美元的光学多头标的，比如$SIVE，感觉就像是既视感。
  13. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.
    中文 · 翻译
    反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
  14. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.
    中文 · 翻译
    最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。 并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息） 明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。 也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。 我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。 这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
  15. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.
    中文 · 翻译
    Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。 然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。 每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。 再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。 甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。 现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。 一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
  16. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    $SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.
    中文 · 翻译
    $SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
  17. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @hisarchive lol I’m super bullish on my $SIVE position too. > EU macro positive > $LITE + laser group up 4-6% overnight trading from InP bottleneck easing > possible Nasdaq listing timeline announcement today We’ll see what happens.
    中文 · 翻译
    @hisarchive 哈哈，我对我的 $SIVE 头寸也超级看好。 > 欧盟宏观面利好 > $LITE 加上激光板块，隔夜交易涨了 4-6%，原因是 InP 瓶颈缓解 > 今天可能会宣布纳斯达克上市时间表 我们等着瞧吧。
  18. 看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Yep, very stupid to be a bear. When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms. On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration. $LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing. $SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to risk on themes/IPOs (eg. Space sector). And overall macro go brr from War/Strait peace deals. It’s already kind of showing, since 2026 rate hike odds also crashed from 65% -> 35% following the news. Along with crude futures dropping. I've actually found Europe to be the most price sensitive to Iran tensions, so EU markets would probably be the most bullish overall… (South Korea/TW was originally with Sk Hynix moving directly in correlation to crude oil futures, but stopped caring after awhile). But basically: Murica go brrrr.
    中文 · 翻译
    没错，这时候做空真的很蠢。 特朗普在中选前拼了命地拉抬市场。 更别说，你那个 $WOLF 功率半导体组合，在 800V 直流快充加速的推动下，应该要直接起飞了。 $LITE 的光学组合，有了 InP 技术的放宽限制，也该跟着飞。 $SPCX 成功上市，让市场对主题/IPO（比如航天板块）的风险偏好更强了。 宏观层面更是因为战争/台海和平协议而狂欢。 迹象已经很明显了——2026 年加息的概率预期，消息一出直接从 65% 暴跌到 35%。原油期货也在跌。 我反而发现，欧洲对伊朗局势的价格变化最敏感，所以欧股整体上可能是最牛的…… （韩国/台湾那边，之前 SK 海力士的走势跟原油期货直接挂钩，但后来慢慢就不跟着走了。） 但说到底：美利坚，冲就完事了。
  19. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
    中文 · 翻译
    这话估计会让很多人不爽： 但说白了，技术分析就是交易员的占星术。 它不过是对进场点的确认偏差 + 交易心理学。 就像当初有人提前埋伏 $SPCE 的 $SPCX IPO，指望着散户因为交易心理搞错股票代码一样。 $SIVE 涨了 1900%，可不是因为有人拿什么“黄金交叉太空彗星喷火龙蜡烛图”忽悠你花 499 美元买的那个东西。 它涨是因为市场在定价 $JBL、$GFS 宣布的未来营收。 $AXTI 涨了 8000%，也不是因为什么金色瀑布蜡烛图警报在 8 块钱时响起来了。 它涨是因为 InP 衬底、ASP 提价博弈、出口管制、光子学需求等等等等。 如果你想摸清其他韭菜心里在想什么，那用技术分析还行。 但要是为了判断真正的上涨空间……拉倒吧。 过去不知道多少个月人们一直给 $IREN 画 $120+ 的技术分析，但那些狗屁都没用，当你有 60 亿美元的 ATM 要先消化完。 它靠的是主题（比如 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的关系），任何影响未来营收的新闻催化剂、预期、宏观消息、财报、流通盘动态等等。 然后你就能推导出这家公司市值该是多少。 所以，进场点嘛，你可以用 TA。 但要判断股票往哪走，就把那些霸王龙欧米茄绿蜡烛指标扔窗外吧。
  20. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.
    中文 · 翻译
    随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
  21. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now. Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran. This market is so volatile… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL
    中文 · 翻译
    以防你在纳闷，为什么指数和 $SNDK、$MRVL、$LITE 这些个股现在都是涨的。 川普刚刚取消了针对伊朗的攻击。 这个市场实在波动太大…… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL
  22. 看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
    中文 · 翻译
    高兴看到光学板块的股票，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，都在按照应有的节奏小幅回升。 一开始的那波下跌简直是无厘头。https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
  23. 看多跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    If you want a TLDR of today: > be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO > analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! > market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” > Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ???
    中文 · 翻译
    如果你想要今天的一个 TLDR： > 你是 $NVDA，一家市值 $5T 的公司。强行转向 800V 直流电和 CPO > 分析师：我觉得你来不及搞定！ > 市场：“我不相信英伟达，是时候清仓了” > 英伟达和 Lumentum 的高管随后：看好 CPO，时间表在加速。 ???
  24. 看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    $LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities.
    中文 · 翻译
    今天瑞穗科技在会议上听了 $LITE 管理层的发言。 公司预计 2027 年下半年开始出货 CPO 规模化光学产品。 2028 年正式上量。 没有延期，这与之前分享的时间表一致。 所以今天，我们也得到了 $NVDA 高级副总裁的确认， CPO 规模化时间表没有延期，仍为 2026 年下半年，而且他们已经开始量产。 $LITE 管理层也表示，CPO 规模化时间表没有延期。 英伟达和 Lumentum 这两家领头羊，大概率比那些瞎说"不可能"的分析师报告更清楚自己的时间表。 而且两家都对总可用市场和机会非常看好。
  25. 看多跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @NathanJoooo This was in response to that erroneous article. I would trust Foxconn/Lumentum/Nvidia industry projections over an analyst firm that messed up $MU HBM4 so badly and said “no” to all their timelines together
    中文 · 翻译
    @NathanJoooo 这是针对那篇错误报道的回应。 我更相信富士康/Lumentum/英伟达的行业预测，而不是一家把 $MU HBM4 搞得一塌糊涂、并对所有时间线都说了“不”的调研机构。
  26. 看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff) Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after) I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy. Appreciate the buying opportunity though.
    中文 · 翻译
    CPO 向外扩展时间表比预期提前： > 鸿海：预估单位出货量上修，光交换器提前出货给 $NVDA 今天 $LITE 瑞穗科技大会上的 CPO 向上扩展时间表： “公司预计在 2027 年下半年开始出货向上扩展的光学产品，2028 年正式放量” $NVDA 网络部门 SVP：“我们今年下半年就要开始上量 CPO”。没有任何延期的迹象。 我选择相信行业预测。他们都一致强调：向外扩展的 CPO 下半年起加速；向上扩展的 CPO 从 2027 下半年开始（主要增长在 2028）。 而不是相信动机可疑的分析机构——那家说 $MU 在 HBM4 Rubin 上没有份额（引发了一轮抛售）。 结果美光没过多久就宣布要进入量产（之后不久就翻了好几倍）。 我觉得那些因为这份错误报告而做多临时桥接架构的人，怕是不会太开心。 不过还是要感谢这个买入机会。
  27. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
    中文 · 翻译
    我并不觉得 $AAOI、$LITE 或 $SIVE 那边的 photonics 会很快消失… 只是波动实在太大了。 不管怎样，好奇大家今天在买什么？https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
  28. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too positive for expontentially compounding revenue growth since hyperscalers were Nvidia's original main revenue stream (even indirect via Neoclouds). But $NVDA's kinda stalling everyone elses buildout by bottlenecking their programs eg. EML/laser capacity agreements years out too. And took stakes in $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC etc. making them adopt to $NVDA standards or just owning a large %. So even if they're delaying other programs + their biggest growth vector kinda falls off one day, like how things are shifting already shifting to ASICs for inference. They'll still probably be fine given ownership stakes + will serve companies/countries outside of hyperscaler cash cows (just less revenue)+ made so much before then. But that's probably why p/e keeps going down despite revenues going up, since idk if markets thinks that growth will last forever. Or could be totally wrong and they just keep leapfrogging generation by generation + AI pie keeps growing with Jensen's 4T 2030 capex number.
    中文 · 翻译
    嗯，长期来看，我更看好你提到的所有上游瓶颈环节，而不是 $NVDA，因为那些东西的估值重估空间最大（英伟达已经是全球最大公司了）。 我相当确信，超大规模云的 ASIC 最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求，就像 $GOOGL 的 TPU、$AMZN 的 Trainium 项目那样。这对指数级复利的营收增长可不太有利，因为超大规模云本来就是英伟达最初的主要收入来源（甚至通过 Neocloud 这种间接渠道也是）。 不过 $NVDA 也在卡别人脖子，拖慢大家的建设进度，比如把 EML/激光产能协议签到了好几年后。而且它还入股了 $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC 等公司，要么让它们采用 $NVDA 的标准，要么直接拿大头股份。 所以，哪怕它拖慢了其他项目 + 自己最大的增长引擎某天会熄火（就像现在推理已经在往 ASIC 转移了）， 考虑到它手里那一堆股权 + 还能继续服务超大规模现金牛之外的公司和国家（虽然收入会少一些）+ 之前早就赚得盆满钵满，它大概率还是能过得不错。 不过，这大概也是为什么它收入一直在涨、市盈率却持续走低的原因——大概市场也不确定这种增长能不能永远持续。 当然，也可能我完全错了，它们就是一代代持续领先 + AI 蛋糕持续做大，配合 Jensen 说的 2030 年 4 万亿 capex 目标。
  29. 看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    $AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.
    中文 · 翻译
    $AAOI 是我从$28就开始持续加仓的标的之一。 就是随便洗澡时瞎想……感觉如果他们执行到位，翻倍甚至翻三倍几乎是迟早的事？ 毕竟800G/1.6T光模块的需求实在太大了…… 而这公司瞄准的是美国最大产能，还搞了极端的垂直整合。 我觉得有一点值得记住——主权数据中心 / Tier 2 AI 数据中心也会增加800G的需求，因为超大规模云厂商正在往1.6T升级。 所以800G的需求实际上会持续增长…… 然后还有分析师传言说$AAOI在和$AMD / $NVDA洽谈。考虑到所有人都在抢产能排期到2028年，这其实挺符合预期的。 英伟达总是先动手，然后像EML那样卡住其他人的瓶颈，所以如果这次有另一家超大规模云厂商吸取了教训，也不奇怪吧？ 另外，似乎所有人都在按规模量产后ASP下降来做模型。但如果明年上半年真的像预期那样成为主要瓶颈…… 那可能就会出现意料之外的涨价 + 利润率全面扩张，$AAOI、$LITE 以及其他标的都还没把这点计入模型。
  30. 看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins” “Demand for … networking is simply insatiable” Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable. - “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now” positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028 - The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. $META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines - “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.” Just for the GW modelers. - “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026” OpenAI custom program timeline - “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.” More about the demand ramp, go brrr - “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them” Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked. There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol. TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.
    中文 · 翻译
    随手记几条 $AVGO 财报电话会议的零散笔记 - 营收目标重申（2027 年 1000 亿美元以上，市场明显是希望这次财报能上调的，所以股价跌了） 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋说过，$MRVL 会是一家围绕网络/连接/互联的 1 万亿美元公司吗？ - “随着 TPU 继续加速，整体利润率会有压力。 但连接这一块，AI 网络业务，利润率非常丰厚。” “对……网络的需求简直是无法满足。” 对 $LITE 和其他玩家也是非常正面的连锁反应。不过 TPU 的利润率随着规模扩大而下降，这可以理解。 - “他们下的订单量相当庞大，这基本上给了我们更多的能见度……现在排单一直排到 2028 年。” 考虑到现在是 2026 年，而订单已经排到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 需求是个正面信号。 - 首个 1 吉瓦的订单——包含 XPU 和我们的网络——已经收到，将在 2027 年下半年开始交付。另外两家客户，我们预计出货从 2026 年底开始，并在 2027 年加速。 $META 定制 AI 项目的时间线是 2027 年下半年。 - “我们的收入，每吉瓦的内容会增加。当你开始大量把 CPU 内核嵌入到同样的 XPU 里，让这些芯片基本上变成带大量 HVM 的多裸片结构。” 这是给那些喜欢算吉瓦模型的人看的。 - “对于 OpenAI，我们已经交付了芯片，并将在 2026 年底按期量产。” OpenAI 定制项目时间线。 - “如果你问 27 年或 28 年，那会持续增长。我们实际上预计 28 年相比 27 年的预测会有大幅增长。” 更多关于需求加速的信息，冲冲冲。 - “对于 Google，我们预计他们会有多元化的来源。” 联发科 (2454) 是主要受益方，可能还有 $MRVL。不过这个预期已经在股价里了——Google 不会只依赖单一来源，以免被卡脖子。 AI 需求的能见度一直延伸到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 板块是看多的。不管怎样，博通这周收盘涨跌持平，哈哈。 太长不看版：强烈看多 AI 需求，尤其是网络部分。股票不会直线向上，但需求曲线从 2026 年→2027 年→2028 年一直往上走。
  31. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.
    中文 · 翻译
    @OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong 预期 Celestial 和 Lightmatter 会尝试多源供应。 但可能第一代产品，我猜大多是独家或主供，用 $SIVE 来服务 $NVDA 的 CPO NVlink 生态系统。 英伟达自己也跟 $LITE 和 $COHR 有合作项目。
  32. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.
    中文 · 翻译
    猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
  33. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    $LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
    中文 · 翻译
    $LITE 靠着 EML 和可插拔模块，在两年内从 $3B 涨到 $75B 完成了第一波光通信行情。 我的观点是 $SIVE 也能从 $3B 起步做到同样的事，凭借 CPO/可插拔模块和连续波激光器。 Sivers 加上 GFS 的 SiPH 参考激光器消息，再加上今天 54% 的涨幅。 这才只是刚刚开始。 https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
  34. 看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.
    中文 · 翻译
    从没想过有一天会看到 $GOOGL 需要募集 800 亿美元搞 AI 资本开支…… 接着沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 又给超大规模 AI 基建砸钱。 - 400 亿 ATM（在架发行），300 亿增发，伯克希尔 100 亿 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO 到联发科到 $TSM 到 $MU 的上游生态应该要起飞了。 不过谷歌的股东们恐怕没那么开心，因为这么大手笔的资本开支不是靠自由现金流撑起来的。
  35. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    -> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.
    中文 · 翻译
    -> 拿下IP -> 就等CPO起飞 $SIVE 是光子学领域的激光要塞，并且已获得如下公开验证： - $GFS（据演示材料，是两家公开激光供应商之一，与 $LITE 一起供应 CPO） - $JBL（用Sivers构建的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”） - 整个公司获得的CHIPS法案资金 最高可见度方面： -> Ayar 是最大的CPO玩家，主要货源来自 $SIVE，预计2027年放量。 -> $POET 是另一个近期的CPO量产玩家，与Sivers有非常高的可见度。 开源情报梳理： $MRVL Celestial（直接，非通过Poet）、Lightmatter、Lightelligence，都是Sivers的高置信度客户。 $SIVE 还在与更多光收发器厂商进行开发和认证，紧随Jabil之后。 感觉它们会出现在每个角落。 我不确定大家是否意识到，一家市值不到20亿美元的激光公司，在2027年放量前夕获得这么多认证，有多不寻常…… 尤其当其他激光公司都在150亿到700亿美元的估值区间交易。 只需要可插拔模块来填补营收缺口，撑到2027年下半年（CPO规模化）。 然后照着 $LITE 的剧本，让每一颗卖出的激光器都更值钱，从而在两个市场中捕获更多TAM。 - 在整体光学领域，未来一年半内TAM为1410亿美元（高盛数据，10倍空间）。 - 而CPO的TAM将在未来一年半内从0增长到810亿美元。 所以，通过向下游收购IP，一夜之间就能轻松把营收机会翻倍。 更多只是等待的游戏，我认为 $SIVE 相对于未来的营收潜力，现在非常被低估。 如果它是一家硅谷的私营初创公司，今天可能值40到60亿美元。 只需要在纳斯达克上市，用溢价来弥合这个差距。
  36. 看空跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream
    中文 · 翻译
    他们傻吗？ $JBL 宣布需求大于供应，这预示着 $SIVE 的激光器将进入大规模量产。 Ayar 筹集了 5 亿美元用于量产放量，并放弃了 $LITE 和 $MTSI，转投 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。 $AMD 选择了 $GFS，并且有很大概率在它们的 CPO 计划中使用 Sivers 的产品。 Sivers 还暗示了并购的可能，这会大幅扩展下游的可触达市场。
  37. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    $SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.
    中文 · 翻译
    $SIVE 在我看来是最有吸引力的 CPO 概念股。 虽然它波动很大。 但你可能要到几年后光子学领域下一次架构变革时，才能再找到这样的标的。 核心激光器供应商里，它们市值不都是几百亿吗？ $AAOI = 150 亿美元 古河电工 = 260 亿美元 $MTSI = 290 亿美元 住友电工 = 590 亿美元 $COHR = 730 亿美元 $LITE = 740 亿美元 然后 $SIVE 作为核心 CPO 激光器瓶颈之一，市值只有 23 亿美元。 财报通常只是确认那些小信号——比如 Jabil 电话会纪要里关于 1.6T LRO 的量产线索。 而大部分收益往往是在正式确认之前赚到的，而不是之后，这只是一条经验法则。
  38. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    $SIVE is highest possible upside, since I see them being the next $LITE (which started at ~$2.6B as well in 2024, but now is $80B). As laser chokepoints are known to downstream TAM expand, then vertically integrate assembly/fabs after. Foci/Shunsin I kinda expect to 3-4x. They're more structural re-rating from FAU/component revenue growth... or just more demand on packaging/test. But hard to see them going up 20x.
    中文 · 翻译
    $SIVE 的上行空间最大，因为我看好它会成为下一个 $LITE（后者 2024 年起步时市值大约 26 亿美元，现在已经 800 亿美元了）。 激光瓶颈环节众所周知，下游 TAM 会扩张，然后它们再往后垂直整合封装/晶圆厂。 Foci/Shunsin 我大概预期能涨 3 到 4 倍。 它们更多是来自 FAU/组件营收增长带来的结构性重估……或者只是封装/测试需求增加。但要看到它们涨 20 倍，挺难的。
  39. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.
    中文 · 翻译
    你听到了吗，匿名用户？ $SIVE 现在极早期。 接下来一周，我们将首次看到大量机构资金涌入（Blackrock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再加上很快就要在纳斯达克上市，会有更多美国机构进场。 这就是早期买入 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类股票时的感觉。 而且这会儿，大机构资金还没大量涌入流通盘，CPO 超级周期也还没真正启动。
  40. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.
    中文 · 翻译
    一股 $SIVE 我都不会卖。 我个人觉得，这是十年一遇的多头机会，毕竟他们已经打进了那么多家超大规模云服务商的供应链。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔光模块和 CPO 的 TAM 扩张预测，简直夸张。 如果你还没读过 $JBL 那场线上交流的文字记录，里面确认了需求和时间线。 或者没注意到 Ayar 已经从官网上去掉了 Lumentum 和 Macom 这两家激光器供应商，这验证了他们的护城河。 或者没看到光是《芯片法案》的拨款就已经确认了它的技术重要性。 或者没意识到管理层在我看来每一步都走对了——从纳斯达克上市到转向并购聚焦，都验证了未来增长的远景。 按现在的估值来看，向上的空间实在太诱人了。 而且机构资金才刚刚开始进场……接下来下个月，纳斯达克、贝莱德、MSCI 这些指数就会带来数千万美元的被动长期新资金流入。
  41. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    @ShortsHoward So this is exactly what I mean by using ChatGPT will make you miss the nuances: They're literally different architectures. People using LLMs to compare $LITE single high power laser to one of the channel's outputs in a multi-channel array don't what they're talking about.
    中文 · 翻译
    @ShortsHoward 所以这就是我说的，用 ChatGPT 会让你忽略掉那些细微差别： 它们根本就是不同的架构。 那些用大语言模型对比 $LITE 单路高功率激光器和多通道阵列中某个通道输出的人，根本不知道自己在说什么。
  42. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    People in Sweden always like: “How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE? Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ
    中文 · 翻译
    瑞典人总爱说： “$SIVE 员工这么少，怎么搞定这一切的？” vs. $LITE？ 结果发现……如果整个团队里大约四分之一都是博士，你就能造出全世界最有价值的 IP。https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ
  43. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE. I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start. Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked. CHIPS ACT, all these likely partnerships from $NOK to $AAPL also gives a ton of credibility to the IP moat they've built. They just lacked the funding before the recent market interest in Sivers. But I'm very interested to see what they can do from here.
    中文 · 翻译
    我之前说过，但我对 $SIVE 有很高的信心。 我有信心，他们那支来自 UC Berkeley 和 $LITE 的 executive 团队知道该收购哪些 IP。毕竟他们从一开始就和 Ayar 他们合作过。 再加上他们公司有 22% 的员工都是博士，所以整个团队非常厉害。 CHIPS 法案，再加上所有这些潜在的合作伙伴，从 $NOK 到 $AAPL，也给他们构建的 IP 护城河带来了极大的可信度。 在最近市场对 Sivers 产生兴趣之前，他们只是缺乏资金。但我非常期待看到他们接下来能有什么作为。
  44. 提及跳转 X 原文 →
    English · 原文
    For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.
    中文 · 翻译
    要让 $SIVE 成为下一个 800 亿+ 美元的 $LITE。 Sivers 是目前从传统光学转向 CPO 和 1.6T 的激光器之王。 他们基本上把激光器供应给 CPO 领域的头部玩家。 很可能是 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他做 CPO 的公司——在它们做大之前。 现在和 $JBL 这样的大玩家一起做 1.6T LRO，还有更多的测试和认证正在进行，针对可插拔模块。 他们终于解决了那个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题，市场也开始关注他们，准备在纳斯达克上市后（或者现在用股权）收购底层的 CPO 相关 IP。 并且尽可能扩大收入来源，从激光器延伸至： → 光学引擎/ELS 的价值。 → 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 当年那样——在两年内把估值从 20 亿推到 800 亿美元。 但不同的是，$LITE 靠的是 EML 和可插拔模块，而 Sivers 瞄准的是 CPO 超级周期，也就是光子学史上 TAM 扩张最快的领域。 我在关注这个故事，看他们如何实现这场大卫 vs 歌利亚式的逆袭，追上 $LITE。 这比我在意现在这点小市值的百分比变动重要多了。