MRVL迈威尔
13看多1看空34提及
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
MRVL 整体偏多（看多 13 · 看空 1）
被點名為CPO領域中Sivers激光的潛在主要參與者和客戶。
最近发言：2026/08/22 20:40 · 信心分 8/10
8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及
历史观点（48 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Apparently, $RDDT thinks $MRVL had two major catalysts recently: The $12.2B Google TPU ecosystem agreement. And… Spider-Man: “Brand New Day” https://t.co/qmUvJqjcpo中文 · 翻译看来 $RDDT 觉得 $MRVL 最近有两个重大利好： 一是那个 122 亿美元的 Google TPU 生态系统协议。 然后嘛…… 是《蜘蛛侠：全新的一天》https://t.co/qmUvJqjcpo
- English · 原文$POET is supplying Lumilens, which is another top-2 hyperscaler supplier (with billions in customer agreements). Lite-On is another major player. I'm just saying they got likely designed out $MRVL Celestial since Marvell has their own packagig/intergration IP in the same layer that Poet is offering.中文 · 翻译$POET 正在给 Lumilens 供货，Lumilens 也是一家顶级的超大规模数据中心供应商（手握数十亿美元的客户合同）。 Lite-On 也是个重要玩家。 我想说的是，他们很可能被 $MRVL 的 Celestial 项目淘汰了，因为 Marvell 在 POET 提供的那一层有他们自己的封装/集成 IP。
- English · 原文Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.中文 · 翻译大家都在玩儿命猜 $SKHY CPO 路线图的供应链，那我来凑个热闹。 我猜 SK 海力士在评估 Celestial/Ayar，并且在第一代部署后，会重点评估 microLED。 这两家公司都为此努力了一段时间了。 - Ayar 曾在 SK 海力士自己的网站上出现，涉及光纤与内存连接。 - Marvell 正在积极与 SK 海力士合作开发定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁是 Celestial 的老板）。 Celestial/Ayar 在 SK 海力士链接的《Nature》论文中也被引用，这在技术相关性上有所帮助： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光学 I/O 小芯片），Stojanovic 也是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳 Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想尽量写得简短些。 对于更上游的受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最直接的受益者，因为他们很可能同时供货给 Celestial 和 Ayar。 关于中介层/封装 IP……大家之前在猜 $POET，但 Marvell 在宣布收购 Celestial 后，今年很可能就把它垂直整合掉了。 考虑到 Marvell 在收购 Celestial 之前就已经拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如，他们在 2023 年就展示过硅光子中介层）。 -> AMS Osram（我没持有），看起来他们也在这个领域进行联合开发，因为他们今年突然特别强调 HBM <-> 光学技术会增加他们的潜在市场规模（TAM）。 总结：我把 Ayar/Celestial 看作 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLED 在第一代之后，可能会在 2029 年左右实现商业化。（这纯属个人猜测） 顺便给量子点兄弟们扔块骨头，这篇论文被引用了大概 5 次。
- English · 原文@200pipss Is there something wrong with $GOOGL and $MRVL?中文 · 翻译@200pipss 是 $GOOGL 和 $MRVL 出什么问题了吗？
- English · 原文$MRVL gives $GOOGL options to buy $12.2B of the company. "The Marvell-Google deal covers a broad range of technologies used with TPUs, including processors that run AI models, manage data storage and move information across networks." Which could translate into ~$120 billion in revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with $AMZN after their Celestial acquisition (for purchases of photonic fabric). Remember the good times when Jensen said Marvell would be the next $1T+ company? Seems Nvidia knew Marvell was "networking" its way into all the hyperscalers with warrants.中文 · 翻译$MRVL 授予 $GOOGL 期权，可以购买价值 122 亿美元的公司股份。 "Marvell 和 Google 的这笔交易涵盖了广泛的技术，用于 TPU，包括运行 AI 模型、管理数据存储和在网络中传输信息的处理器。" 这有望在 2033 年前带来约 1200 亿美元的
- English · 原文As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.中文 · 翻译至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。 我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。 也许其他主题也可以照做。
- English · 原文You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.中文 · 翻译你可以看看这些股票今年以来的表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU，我都是今年年初或去年就建仓的。 然后告诉我你是不是还那么想。
- English · 原文Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?中文 · 翻译铠侠系的存储股今天猛涨了17.18%。三星也涨了6.15%。 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 这些光网络股都在展现复苏迹象，全部涨了4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的 Neoclouds 概念股，盘前全部涨了4%以上。 从 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL，这些股都涨了4%以上。 难道克拉默效应要对整个AI概念股都起作用了吗？
- English · 原文I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.中文 · 翻译不确定你知不知道，但整个 AI 板块现在都在普跌。像三星这样市值万亿美元的公司，这个月都跌了 -26%。$MRVL 也跌了 -31%。所以那些高贝塔的股票，跌起来幅度就更大，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这种，跌幅能到 50%。但反弹起来也更剧烈，比如 $AEHR 财报后一天就涨了 50%。
- English · 原文Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.中文 · 翻译就随便说一下我的看法： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 这些股票，还有其他一些，都跟着一起崩盘…… 这些今天目前为止跌幅都在 -4% 到 -10% 以上。 那这可能就和个股基本面没什么关系了。 像瀑布式保证金清算这类原因导致的无差别抛售，如果标的公司基本面在改善的话，通常会带来非常不错的机会。
- English · 原文Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.中文 · 翻译有没有人也和我一样，脑子里被种下了这个烦人的念头？ 每当看到 $MRVL 下跌，我就会想起 Jensen 说的那句话：“下一家万亿美元市值的公司。”
- English · 原文Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.中文 · 翻译每次看到半导体市场因为彭博社的报道措辞再次暴跌，都觉得挺有意思的… 瑞银分析师评论 $META 财报说：“这不是什么新消息。” 但不管怎么说： $AEHR 下跌 -18.3% $AAOI 下跌 -17.13% $SIVEF 下跌 -15.4% $SNDK 下跌 -14.8% $TER 下跌 -13.8% $GLW 下跌 -11.4% $MRVL 下跌 -11.2% $LITE 下跌 -10.2% $NBIS 下跌 -7.8% 看到这个，我都想起彭博社今年早些时候那篇关于 AMD/Nvidia 全球出口管制的误导性报道，当时也搞得半导体股票大跌，简直要犯 PTSD 了。 顺便提一下：如果 Meta 真有过剩产能并且能削减资本支出，他们就不会随便买下价值超过 480 亿美元的 Neocoud 合同了… 市场有时候就是这么傻。
- English · 原文@DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18% On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop. So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr中文 · 翻译@DogUrineCapital 看到 $MRVL 跌了 11%，$AMAT 跌了 11%，到 $NBIS 跌了 18%，真是让人有点恶心。 往好的一面看，很多高贝塔/小盘股，像 $AAOI，提前预警了这次下跌。 所以它们表现得还不错 https://t.co/OEyJYiQQr
- English · 原文Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential. In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE: - $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers - $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE - $AMD went to $GFS for CPO - $SIVE announced CW with TFLN - Ayar (using $SIVE) raised a bunch for volume ramp and joined $NVDA NVLink ecosystem - AlChip private placement with Amazon, which is Ayar's primary ASIC partner (hinting at Trainium wins) - O-Net new ELS partnership with $SIVE for mass production - $POET new purchase order with a customer that stated their initial clients is a "top-3 hyperscaper" - New CHIPS Act nondilutive funding - "LIDAR customer will ramp production starting Q4 2026," which is likely $AEVA - New information discovery likely linking $SIVE customer to $MRVL Celestial (not through Poet), Lightelligence, and Lightelligence. - New information discovery about Ayar removing Lumentum / Macom from website and likely making Sivers primary source - More pluggable players on top of $JBL. - $NVDA bottlenecking CW laser supply and $AMD + other CSPs going around signing LTAs - NASDAQ listing planned And more.中文 · 翻译倒也不是，我个人还是觉得它被低估了。关键是看市值和未来营收潜力的对比。 就在这么短的时间内，关于 $SIVE 就有： - $JBL 宣布与 Sivers 合作，推出 1.6T LRO。 - $GFS 发布了与 $SIVE 相关的参考激光器公告。 - $AMD 转而向 $GFS 寻求 CPO（封装光学）。 - $SIVE 宣布与 TFLN 合作推出 CW（连续波）。 - Ayar（使用 $SIVE 的技术）获得了大量融资以扩大生产，并加入了 $NVDA 的 NVLink 生态系统。
- English · 原文OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.中文 · 翻译每次看OpenLight（未上市），感觉它规模越来越大了。 如果你好奇他们在Advantest之外的公开生态系统： $JBL（$SIVE的合作伙伴）负责扩大PIC规模 $MRVL和$MXL负责DSP $TSEM负责晶圆代工。 $300394.SZ / TFC Optical（封测/组件组装） 如果你不是合格投资者，往往能通过公开股票间接参与未上市公司的成长。 毕竟光学玩家之间的关联度非常高。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Best time to long CXL for memory pooling was 4 months ago. $ALAB up 276% from $117 -> $440 $MRVL up 291% from $79 -> $309 https://t.co/7XmXHyXgb1中文 · 翻译做多 CXL 内存池化的最佳时机是 4 个月前。 $ALAB 从 $117 涨了 276% → $440 $MRVL 从 $79 涨了 291% → $309 https://t.co/7XmXHyXgb1
- English · 原文That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.中文 · 翻译这是一种误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光供应商，不仅仅是 CPO 规模化的配套。 可插拔、规模化 CPO（Scale out CPO）、Scale up CPO、NPO 等等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 联手开挂，用 CW 激光器开发出了 1.6T 光收发器。 有效绕开了 EML 瓶颈，甚至还提升了能效。 从 Jabil 管理层的说法来看，他们打造了一个"相对显著的护城河"。 所以在下一代 1.6T 可插拔收发器上，Sivers 看起来立刻就会被用上。 市场也忽略了这一细节：Jabil 发布公告后，其他可插拔厂商也找上门了，SIVE 现在正在跟他们合作（很可能是联合开发、认证阶段）。 没有太多做光收发器的厂商是像 Lumentum 那样垂直整合的（想想：Innolight/eoptolink 之类的）。 所以这些都是在推进中的开发项目，只是还没公开披露，随时可能出新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的规模化 CPO，比如 $POET 这类玩家，$SIVE 是它们的激光供应商。 - Scale up CPO 则是在 2027 年下半年，来自 Ayar 和英伟达的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，那才是光器件玩家们的主要放量阶段。 但这时候，从供应链图谱来看，$SIVE 看起来碾压了其他所有对手。 因为他们很可能从很久以前就开始跟 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等公司一起研发设计，那时这些公司还很小。 而且还有像这样的： 对于 $GFS 这类代工厂来说，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 这还没算上 O-Net 这样的大公司正在用 $SIVE 构建 ELS，很可能是面向亚洲超大规模数据中心供应链的。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器隘口长线标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，新的光架构里到处都有他们的影子。
- English · 原文Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.中文 · 翻译反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
- English · 原文Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.中文 · 翻译Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。 然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。 每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。 再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。 甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。 现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。 一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
- English · 原文Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now. Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran. This market is so volatile… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL中文 · 翻译以防你在纳闷，为什么指数和 $SNDK、$MRVL、$LITE 这些个股现在都是涨的。 川普刚刚取消了针对伊朗的攻击。 这个市场实在波动太大…… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL
- English · 原文Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.中文 · 翻译这些公司，我随口一说哈： - $ASX - 住友电气 - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - 创意电子 (AlChip) - $TSEM - $FN - 古河电气 - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR 所以说，基本上就是在市值 100 亿到 1000 亿美元区间的 AI 相关股票。 跟大盘指数或者像 $ARM、$MRVL 这种已经涨了一大截的股票比起来，它们现在的投资回报率可能更吸引人，对吧？ （声明一下，我只对上面提到的 $NBIS、$TSEM、$AAOI 有投资兴趣） 我经常提到很多小盘股，不过也就是为了追求超额回报。 感觉这些公司好多都还有上涨空间。
- English · 原文A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE: Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace). This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication. The bigger implication is not the contract size: But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial). Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract. Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers... This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)中文 · 翻译$SIVE 今天迎来了一个巨大的催化剂： Sivers 宣布开始获得面向太空应用（allspace）的 820 万美元批量订单。 这是用于驱动太空 LEO/多轨道卫星通信的波束赋形 IC。 更重要的不是合同金额本身—— 而是 Sivers 现在通过 allspace 的收购，为 $YSS 旗下更大的国防主承包商提供支持（类似于 $MRVL 与 Celestial 的设计导入）。 这对 Sivers 来说，往往意味着后续会有更多追加订单 + 批量合同，而不仅仅只是这一份。 原来 Sivers 在光子学 AI 数据中心激光器之外，同时也是太空 / 国防供应链中的一个关键瓶颈（赶在 SpaceX IPO 之前）... 除了这次胜利，我还期待他们光子学这边很快也会有更多批量爬坡（说的就是 Jabil 和其他可插拔模块厂商）。
- English · 原文@0xHyperEVM Yeah $MRVL was $87 or so, $ARM was $130. $87 -> $288 for Marvell $134 -> $347 for Arm not too shabby for my names? I still think many have a toooon of room to go like $AAOI.中文 · 翻译@0xHyperEVM 是啊，$MRVL 当时大概 $87，$ARM 是 $130。 $87 → $288 给 Marvell $134 → $347 给 Arm 我的这些票表现还不错吧？我还是觉得很多股还有大把空间，比如 $AAOI。
- English · 原文Still think this US list from $MRVL to $ARM to $INTC was goated. Just as a recap if new followers were wondering what US equities I like. Especially because I've been talking about international companies recently. https://t.co/tZGLrFEGoh中文 · 翻译还是觉得这条 $MRVL 到 $ARM 再到 $INTC 的美股名单很牛。 简单回顾一下，给新关注的人看看我喜欢哪些美股。 特别是我最近一直在聊国际公司。https://t.co/tZGLrFEGoh
- English · 原文@LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.中文 · 翻译@LightLogix 我的意思是…… > $SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器 > $SIVE 提供 1.6T LRO 激光方案，配合 $JBL 以及众多可插拔厂商 > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > 很可能是 $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial 搭配 $NVDA NVLink > 大概率 $SIVE 也会进入 $AMD 的 CPO 生态系统 这是个非常吸引人的做多逻辑。
- English · 原文How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta中文 · 翻译你们怎么看 $RDDT 跌了 99% 连续两天收红？ 难道老老实实拿着 $AAOI 或 $MRVL 这类已经高贝塔的个股就那么难吗？ 你方向可能看对了，但短期时机选错了。 多拿一周或一个月，差别就大了。 https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
- English · 原文hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too positive for expontentially compounding revenue growth since hyperscalers were Nvidia's original main revenue stream (even indirect via Neoclouds). But $NVDA's kinda stalling everyone elses buildout by bottlenecking their programs eg. EML/laser capacity agreements years out too. And took stakes in $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC etc. making them adopt to $NVDA standards or just owning a large %. So even if they're delaying other programs + their biggest growth vector kinda falls off one day, like how things are shifting already shifting to ASICs for inference. They'll still probably be fine given ownership stakes + will serve companies/countries outside of hyperscaler cash cows (just less revenue)+ made so much before then. But that's probably why p/e keeps going down despite revenues going up, since idk if markets thinks that growth will last forever. Or could be totally wrong and they just keep leapfrogging generation by generation + AI pie keeps growing with Jensen's 4T 2030 capex number.中文 · 翻译嗯，长期来看，我更看好你提到的所有上游瓶颈环节，而不是 $NVDA，因为那些东西的估值重估空间最大（英伟达已经是全球最大公司了）。 我相当确信，超大规模云的 ASIC 最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求，就像 $GOOGL 的 TPU、$AMZN 的 Trainium 项目那样。这对指数级复利的营收增长可不太有利，因为超大规模云本来就是英伟达最初的主要收入来源（甚至通过 Neocloud 这种间接渠道也是）。 不过 $NVDA 也在卡别人脖子，拖慢大家的建设进度，比如把 EML/激光产能协议签到了好几年后。而且它还入股了 $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC 等公司，要么让它们采用 $NVDA 的标准，要么直接拿大头股份。 所以，哪怕它拖慢了其他项目 + 自己最大的增长引擎某天会熄火（就像现在推理已经在往 ASIC 转移了）， 考虑到它手里那一堆股权 + 还能继续服务超大规模现金牛之外的公司和国家（虽然收入会少一些）+ 之前早就赚得盆满钵满，它大概率还是能过得不错。 不过，这大概也是为什么它收入一直在涨、市盈率却持续走低的原因——大概市场也不确定这种增长能不能永远持续。 当然，也可能我完全错了，它们就是一代代持续领先 + AI 蛋糕持续做大，配合 Jensen 说的 2030 年 4 万亿 capex 目标。
- English · 原文$AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T and follow along Jensen.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 是我目前最看好的美股多头。 我个人的策略是最近每次它跌到 $150、甚至 $170 时就分批加仓。 $JBL 一旦他们为 $SIVE 做的 1.6T LRO 在 2027 上半年进入量产，表现应该会非常好。今天也聊到了 $RDDT。 $MRVL 如果你认为它能达到 1 万亿美元市值，并且跟紧老黄（Jensen）的脚步。
- English · 原文$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 看起来既是明年 CPO 的关卡，又是它的瓶颈。 总能看到非技术人员发布的信息，完全忽略了各种细节。 下面说说原因： 1. CW 激光器受到 $LITE 财报所显示的瓶颈制约。 激光晶圆厂的大量产能都被分配给了 EML，很可能来自 $NVDA 之前的合同。 → 住友电工/古河电气 = 瓶颈 → Win Semi = 瓶颈 $SIVE 做的是 Fab-lite 模式，那它算不算瓶颈？ 是的，$SIVE 就卡在这个激光瓶颈里，因为他们很早就掌控了从 Win Semi 和其他晶圆厂流出的 CW 激光器产能分配权（CEO 说过他们也在与其他厂商合作，增加更多产能）。 完美的例子是 Kioxia/Sandisk。$SNDK 控制着 NAND 的产出，所以他们就是瓶颈，因为他们控制着最终定价。 Ayar、Jabil、其他可插拔模块厂商，加上 Nvidia NVLink CPO 生态，需求超过了供给……最终激光器供应掌握在 $SIVE 手里，这就让 Sivers 成了瓶颈。 $SIVE 很可能也是 Jabil、Gen-1 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial，以及其他超大规模 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线的主供或唯一来源。所以绕不开它（单通道 CW 激光器没法热替换掉 Sivers）。 2. $SIVE 是 CPO 的关卡。 $NVDA 用的是 $COHR、$LITE（后者很可能从日本竞争对手那里外购 CW 产能）。 $AVGO 很可能也是垂直整合的。 然而：它周围整个生态，从 ASIC 项目（Marvell、AlChip 等）到商用项目（Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence），很可能都是围绕 $SIVE 设计的。 比如 Ayar，2022 年可能尝试过从 $MTSI / $LITE 做多源采购，但它们的激光器在阵列规格上可能达不到 Sivers 的水平（最近他们从供应链网站上去掉了 Lumentum / Macom）。 如果至少在初期几代产品中没有替代方案（显然他们正在努力做多源采购），那就让 $SIVE 成了激光器领域一个结构性的、必须通过的关卡。 即使看看 $JBL 设计的 1.6T LRO，他们也通过围绕 $SIVE（可能是唯一来源）的性能，建立了一道“巨大的护城河”。 $SIVE 也是 $GFS 的代工厂级参考激光器设计，而你的超大规模客户（比如 $AMD，Gen1 很可能用的是 Sivers + 也许还有 Ayar）都在用 $GFS： 如果每一个尚未实现垂直整合的主要玩家（Nvidia/Broadcom）都在 CPO 中使用 Sivers…… 那他们就构成了一个关卡。 看看整个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态的合作伙伴：每一个都很可能在使用 Sivers。而且它们全都用 $GFS（Sivers 在这里是默认参考设计）。 所以当 CPO 在 2027 年下半年真正起量时，$SIVE 既是关卡又是瓶颈，而这次 CPO 是有史以来最大的架构变革之一（根据高盛研究报告，TAM 从接近 $0 到未来 1 年半内变成 $81B 或 $91B）。 这就是为什么我说 $SIVE 看起来像未来的 $75B 体量的 $LITE，会在未来几年内实现。 这一切都将在明年上演。 而它现在的市值，还不到一家拿着 $50M 采购协议、把 Sivers 的激光器买回来重新包装的公司。
- English · 原文No, people are misinterpreting $AVGO CEO comments. Demand is insatiable in general, but hyperscalers don't want to be bottlenecked, so it's inevitable $GOOGL and others multi-source. Broadcom's bottom line keeps increasing, but because the pie keeps increasing, Mediatek, Marvell, AlChip, and all the others will benefit too. But the latter much more than Broadcom.中文 · 翻译不，大家都误解了 $AVGO CEO 的说法。 整体来说需求是无穷无尽的，但超大规模云厂商不想被卡脖子，所以 $GOOGL 和其他家必然会搞多源采购。 博通的底线是在不断提升，但因为整个蛋糕在变大，联发科、Marvell、AlChip 和所有其他玩家也都会跟着受益。 只不过后者的受益程度远大于博通。
- English · 原文Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins” “Demand for … networking is simply insatiable” Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable. - “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now” positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028 - The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. $META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines - “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.” Just for the GW modelers. - “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026” OpenAI custom program timeline - “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.” More about the demand ramp, go brrr - “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them” Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked. There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol. TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.中文 · 翻译随手记几条 $AVGO 财报电话会议的零散笔记 - 营收目标重申（2027 年 1000 亿美元以上，市场明显是希望这次财报能上调的，所以股价跌了） 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋说过，$MRVL 会是一家围绕网络/连接/互联的 1 万亿美元公司吗？ - “随着 TPU 继续加速，整体利润率会有压力。 但连接这一块，AI 网络业务，利润率非常丰厚。” “对……网络的需求简直是无法满足。” 对 $LITE 和其他玩家也是非常正面的连锁反应。不过 TPU 的利润率随着规模扩大而下降，这可以理解。 - “他们下的订单量相当庞大，这基本上给了我们更多的能见度……现在排单一直排到 2028 年。” 考虑到现在是 2026 年，而订单已经排到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 需求是个正面信号。 - 首个 1 吉瓦的订单——包含 XPU 和我们的网络——已经收到，将在 2027 年下半年开始交付。另外两家客户，我们预计出货从 2026 年底开始，并在 2027 年加速。 $META 定制 AI 项目的时间线是 2027 年下半年。 - “我们的收入，每吉瓦的内容会增加。当你开始大量把 CPU 内核嵌入到同样的 XPU 里，让这些芯片基本上变成带大量 HVM 的多裸片结构。” 这是给那些喜欢算吉瓦模型的人看的。 - “对于 OpenAI，我们已经交付了芯片，并将在 2026 年底按期量产。” OpenAI 定制项目时间线。 - “如果你问 27 年或 28 年，那会持续增长。我们实际上预计 28 年相比 27 年的预测会有大幅增长。” 更多关于需求加速的信息，冲冲冲。 - “对于 Google，我们预计他们会有多元化的来源。” 联发科 (2454) 是主要受益方，可能还有 $MRVL。不过这个预期已经在股价里了——Google 不会只依赖单一来源，以免被卡脖子。 AI 需求的能见度一直延伸到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 板块是看多的。不管怎样，博通这周收盘涨跌持平，哈哈。 太长不看版：强烈看多 AI 需求，尤其是网络部分。股票不会直线向上，但需求曲线从 2026 年→2027 年→2028 年一直往上走。
- English · 原文@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.中文 · 翻译@WEB3_furture 写得好！我其实没想到今年 $NVDA 会和 $MRVL 合作并入股。 不过我本来就预期 Marvell 会是个有吸引力的标的，出于他们即将到来的 ASIC/连接业务收入机会。
- English · 原文$NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers = laser supplier to entire NVLink CPO ecosystem. People were doubting Sivers connections to Nvidia, but Ayar joining is clearest tie of $SIVE to $NVDA.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 的 CPO 生态系 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天刚加入） $SIVE 百分百确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 有高置信度是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 全都用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是它们的参考激光。 Sivers = 整个 NVLink CPO 生态系的激光供应商。 之前有人质疑 Sivers 跟 Nvidia 的关系，但 Ayar 加入就最清楚地说明了 $SIVE 和 $NVDA 之间的关联。
- English · 原文GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.中文 · 翻译猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 我知道！$SIVE 成为 $NVDA nvlink 融合生态系统的激光供应商，这真是个重磅消息。 Marvell 几个月前才加入，看看他们之后的市值涨成什么样了。 我今天晚点会详细聊聊这个！
- English · 原文Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO中文 · 翻译好吧，确实该更相信黄仁勋（Jensen）对 $MRVL 的判断，毕竟他之前对 $NBIS 就这么干过。 这次他对 Marvell 可是给出了 1 万亿美元的目标价。 一句话就让 Marvell 涨了 35%……https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?中文 · 翻译这可能是整个公司历史上最关键的事件。 今天，一家光子学公司发布了它。 让它成为 CPO、可插拔模块和硅光子的功能性标准激光器。 对于像 $NVDA、$AVGO、$AMD，到 $MRVL 这类使用代工的公司来说。 有人知道名字吗？
- English · 原文@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.中文 · 翻译@wangxindian @StormDirac 我感觉大家还没意识到 $GFS 这条新闻的分量。 它可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更根本性地具有突破性。 因为所有经过 GFS 硅光子的公司，像是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA，默认的参考设计里都嵌着 $SIVE。
- English · 原文$NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D中文 · 翻译$NVDA 黄仁勋： "各位先生女士，$MRVL 是下一家市值突破 1 万亿美元的公司。" Marvell 当前市值约 1910 亿美元。 我持有 Marvell 的头寸……但我们对黄仁勋这个 5 倍预测的信心有多少呢？ https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D
- English · 原文-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.中文 · 翻译-> 拿下IP -> 就等CPO起飞 $SIVE 是光子学领域的激光要塞，并且已获得如下公开验证： - $GFS（据演示材料，是两家公开激光供应商之一，与 $LITE 一起供应 CPO） - $JBL（用Sivers构建的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”） - 整个公司获得的CHIPS法案资金 最高可见度方面： -> Ayar 是最大的CPO玩家，主要货源来自 $SIVE，预计2027年放量。 -> $POET 是另一个近期的CPO量产玩家，与Sivers有非常高的可见度。 开源情报梳理： $MRVL Celestial（直接，非通过Poet）、Lightmatter、Lightelligence，都是Sivers的高置信度客户。 $SIVE 还在与更多光收发器厂商进行开发和认证，紧随Jabil之后。 感觉它们会出现在每个角落。 我不确定大家是否意识到，一家市值不到20亿美元的激光公司，在2027年放量前夕获得这么多认证，有多不寻常…… 尤其当其他激光公司都在150亿到700亿美元的估值区间交易。 只需要可插拔模块来填补营收缺口，撑到2027年下半年（CPO规模化）。 然后照着 $LITE 的剧本，让每一颗卖出的激光器都更值钱，从而在两个市场中捕获更多TAM。 - 在整体光学领域，未来一年半内TAM为1410亿美元（高盛数据，10倍空间）。 - 而CPO的TAM将在未来一年半内从0增长到810亿美元。 所以，通过向下游收购IP，一夜之间就能轻松把营收机会翻倍。 更多只是等待的游戏，我认为 $SIVE 相对于未来的营收潜力，现在非常被低估。 如果它是一家硅谷的私营初创公司，今天可能值40到60亿美元。 只需要在纳斯达克上市，用溢价来弥合这个差距。
- English · 原文@halldj00 $SIVE was high confidence laser supplier directly to Celestial. Celestial got bought by $MRVL. https://t.co/zc18YS8EwJ中文 · 翻译@halldj00 $SIVE 是直接向 Celestial 供货的高置信度激光供应商。 Celestial 被 $MRVL 收购了。 https://t.co/zc18YS8EwJ
- English · 原文$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.中文 · 翻译$MRVL 的财报对整个 CPO 主题（以及 $SIVE 作为可能的激光器供应商）来说是一个看涨信号。 - "Scale-up interconnect 代表了 AI 基础设施领域最新、最具战略意义的机遇之一。" CPO 主题直接起飞 🚀 - 确认 Celestial 被一级超大规模云服务商选中用于规模化部署。 我之前发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 权证……所以很可能是亚马逊。 - 明年的 Scale-up 光学收入应该比之前约 $1.5 亿的预期翻倍不止，这要归功于 Celestial。 远期营收增长预期直接起飞。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队简直就是"全垒打"。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长引擎，上游的 Celestial 供应商们跟着起飞。 - $MRVL 现在专注于将 Celestial 推向大规模量产。 这是放量爬坡的信号。 如果你不记得了，之前有过 OSINT 情报直接指向 $SIVE 与 Celestial 有关联，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的远期增长对 Sivers 的激光器来说就是一个放量爬坡的信号。
- English · 原文When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries. I'm not sure people are fully aware yet. $SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others. Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dynamics / $NVDA self-driving architectural standards. Then you have $SIVE -> Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL, and many others for CPO/1.6T. Those go to GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell -> hyperscalers. Then there's a ton more... Like their US Gov CHIPS Act work that are secretive. Normally with stuff like $POET, it's like "hey" you have 1 customer with a $50m purchase order, we know where that's going. Not some Swedish company with a smaller valuation, going into everywhere from Space, Robotics, AI, consumer segments...中文 · 翻译在做供应链梳理的时候…$SIVE 在很多前沿产业里都处于绝对关键的位置。 我感觉大家还没完全意识到这一点。 $SIVE → $AAPL、$NOK、$RTX（美国国防承包商）、$YSS（金穹）。还不包括爱立信和其他。 然后还有 $SIVE → $AEVA → Boston Dynamics / $NVDA 自动驾驶架构标准。 接着是 $SIVE → Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL，还有很多其他做 CPO/1.6T 的公司。 这些又通到 GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell → 超大规模云厂商。 还有更多…比如他们跟美国政府《芯片法案》相关的保密项目。 通常像 $POET 这种，你会说"嘿"，它有一个客户下了 $5000 万的采购订单，我们知道钱会流向哪里。 但一家瑞典公司，估值更小，却遍布太空、机器人、AI、消费电子等各个领域。
- English · 原文For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.中文 · 翻译要让 $SIVE 成为下一个 800 亿+ 美元的 $LITE。 Sivers 是目前从传统光学转向 CPO 和 1.6T 的激光器之王。 他们基本上把激光器供应给 CPO 领域的头部玩家。 很可能是 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他做 CPO 的公司——在它们做大之前。 现在和 $JBL 这样的大玩家一起做 1.6T LRO，还有更多的测试和认证正在进行，针对可插拔模块。 他们终于解决了那个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题，市场也开始关注他们，准备在纳斯达克上市后（或者现在用股权）收购底层的 CPO 相关 IP。 并且尽可能扩大收入来源，从激光器延伸至： → 光学引擎/ELS 的价值。 → 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 当年那样——在两年内把估值从 20 亿推到 800 亿美元。 但不同的是，$LITE 靠的是 EML 和可插拔模块，而 Sivers 瞄准的是 CPO 超级周期，也就是光子学史上 TAM 扩张最快的领域。 我在关注这个故事，看他们如何实现这场大卫 vs 歌利亚式的逆袭，追上 $LITE。 这比我在意现在这点小市值的百分比变动重要多了。
- English · 原文Wait until you realize that this is actually NASDAQ liquidity required for the US listing/float. And proceeds are expected go to $SIVE M&A (they hired 2 acquisition related board members). For photonics TAM/Revenue expansion. Not only that, all the small companies they worked with from Celestial to Lightmatter ended up being swallowed up by Marvell or became independent billion dollar companies. So Sivers is by far the most knowledgable in what to acquire at the very start. Which is why I call $SIVE the Kingmaker for CPO. This is in fact extremely bullish for Sivers.中文 · 翻译等你意识到，这笔钱其实是纳斯达克为了上市/流通性所要求的流动性。 而且募来的钱预计会拿去给 $SIVE 做并购（他们聘请了两位跟收购相关的董事会成员）。 为了光子学的整体目标市场/营收扩张。 还不止这样，所有他们合作过的初创公司，从 Celestial 到 Lightmatter，最后不是被 Marvell 吞掉，就是自己长成了市值十亿美元级的独立公司。 所以 Sivers 绝对是目前最懂如何在最早期就挑对标的的玩家。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 的 "王座推手"。 这对 Sivers 来说，其实是非常强烈的利好信号。
- English · 原文$SIVE is literally the kingmaker for CPO: From ~ Lightmatter, Celestial, Ayar, Lightelligence early on. Now the leaders with massive $5-10B+ valuations. To the ASIC ecosystems like Marvell, Alchip, GUC. With O-Net mass producing ELS with Sivers for CPO. And Jabil mass producing pluggables with Sivers for pluggable optical transceivers. All likely surround and are designed around Sivers lasers. Markets are only starting to see the precipice of how important this laser company is.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 简直就是 CPO 领域的造王者： 从早期 ~ Lightmatter、Celestial、Ayar、Lightelligence，现在它们都是估值高达 50-100 亿美元的领导者。 再到 ASIC 生态系统，比如 Marvell、Alchip、GUC。 加上 O-Net 正在跟 Sivers 一起量产 ELS，用于 CPO。 还有 Jabil 跟 Sivers 一起量产可插拔光模块。 所有这些很可能都围绕并且基于 Sivers 的激光器来设计。 市场才刚刚开始看到这家激光公司有多重要。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
MRVL 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：