MTSIMACOM

历史观点（27 条，最新在上）

1. 2026/08/25 09:46UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.

   2026/08/25 09:46UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   很多人都在好奇 $SIVE 两天后的财报。 我关注的点是： 1. 我希望光子学的共同开发/认证/合同方面能有更多明确信息。 → $AAOI 说有多个客户找他们要 CPO 激光器（但他们不得不拒绝了） → $MTSI 说有很多客户找他们要 CW 产能（但要
2. 2026/08/24 19:16UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD

   2026/08/24 19:16UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   问得好，主要还是围绕着 $SIVE 的第三方评论和实际行动。 Ayar 的举动对我来说最有说服力，他们把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从官网的供应链版块移除了。然后在激光供应商那里只提了 Sivers 一家。 Ayar 的一位副总裁还说过，Sivers 对于“驱动我们的光 I/O 解决方案至关重要”，这可是个非常强劲的信号。 然后还有 $JBL，他们在选择 Sivers 之后，做了一个 1.6T LRO，这非常少见。还在一次炉边谈话中夸耀他们的技术护城河。 接着是 $GFS，他们也选择了 Sivers 作为参考激光，并且在他们的演示文稿中重点介绍了 Sivers… 感觉所有行业领先的公司都因为某种原因在推进与 Sivers 的合作？我猜这些领先公司都做了尽职调查的。
3. 2026/08/24 19:04UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   @adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.

   2026/08/24 19:04UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   @adiradir734145 我觉得市场就是得让 $SIVE 这个大厨好好发挥。 从其他财报来看，大家好像都在积极地去找像 $MTSI 或 $AAOI 这样的公司谈合作。 这么看来，Sivers 很有可能会拿到一些新的认证或合作开发项目。
4. 2026/08/20 17:24UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

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   Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.

   2026/08/20 17:24UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   非常看好。我的看法是，最近光模块板块，从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，表现这么差简直离谱。 需求确定性... 简直高得吓人。 AOI 说：“即使把 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目加在一起，未来三年（到 2029 年）也还是很难满足客户需求。” (到 2029 年) Elazr 的总经理说：“整个光模块供应链都面临严重短缺。” “短缺将持续未来几年。” Sivers 的 CEO 也说了同样的话，关于 InP 激光器需求未来 3-5 年预计会供不应求。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他公司，可以说的评论还有很多。 我们甚至还没到 1.6T、NPO、CPO 的规模化放量，以及光模块与内存结合（比如 SK Hynix 做的那些）的拐点。 然而，这个行业就已经被 EML/CW，以及所有其他上游组件，从 PDs/TIA/DSPs 到收发器卡脖子了，随着 CPO 的规模化，FAU 和其他组件很快也会成为瓶颈… 我个人非常乐意看着这一切发生，但有点搞不懂市场为什么不会提前一两年算算账。
5. 2026/08/19 07:11UTC看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.

   2026/08/19 07:11UTC看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   我们看到 $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI 的财报都指向了激光器/TIA/DSP 等相关产品存在极度不平衡的需求状况... 现在 Elazr 的总经理在他们的投资者大会上表示： 光模块供应仍远低于市场需求，预计人工智能光模块供应链的紧张状况可能会持续数年。 — “整个供应链都处于缺货状态” — “供应仍远低于市场需求” — “短缺将持续到未来几年” “无论是PCB、载板、激光芯片，甚至是相关的封装产能，只要是人工智能供应链的环节，几乎都处于短缺状态。” 当需求可见性延长数年，同时供应链又面临瓶颈时： 很难不让人觉得光子学产业正在重演存储器行业的超级周期，并可能持续到2027年。
6. 2026/08/16 11:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.

   2026/08/16 11:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。 我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。 也许其他主题也可以照做。
7. 2026/08/13 11:03UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.

   2026/08/13 11:03UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   不知道是不是我一个人的感觉，但我现在看到的 CW（连续波）需求失衡太大了（多亏了 $NVDA）。 而且这还没算上规模扩大和其他 1.6T 产能爬坡还没到来呢。然后你看 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 出现了，它们有稀缺的、独立的 CW 激光器或收发器产能…… 这通常会迫使其他主要玩家，比如 $AMD 和超大规模数据中心提供商，去关注它们。$MTSI 说他们的产能要到 2027 年下半年才开始上线，但客户已经很急地来找他们了…… CW 激光器是我现在最喜欢的一个瓶颈。
8. 2026/08/13 09:46UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.

   2026/08/13 09:46UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

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   感觉我今年二月关于 $IQE 的投资论点，跟 $AXTI 等其他股票一样，都得到了验证。(我仍然持有这两只股票的多头仓位) 所以我就没那么频繁地写它们了。不过关于最新的进展，长话短说： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于 IQE 的论点时，它在光学供应链中是一个处于困境但至关重要的瓶颈，与 $LITE 等公司有联系。 自那时起： - $MTSI 签订了长期磊晶片供应协议，并持有该公司股份，现在 IQE 已经摆脱了银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签订了 InP 磊晶片协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 磊晶片供应”。 - IQE 又签了一份约 1400 万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中唯一还在发展的部分是 IQE 将其闲置/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以赶上 Landmark 等同行（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，大概一年多一点）。 这里面有一些我不想谈的国家安全考量，让它们变得更加重要。 但总的来说： 2025 财年营收：9730 万英镑 2026 财年指引：超过 1.265 亿英镑 它们在光学领域又开始快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并且仍然是西方光学供应链中的一个关键瓶颈。 现在……有了与领先光子学公司的新协议来推动营收增长，以及 Macom 这样的参与者作为软性支撑。 投资论点得到验证后，我通常就会坐享业务增长了。
9. 2026/08/12 22:59UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now. But TLDR of $COHR earnings: "given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally" - Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally... I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027) $AAOI -> Internal $COHR -> Internal Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity. "Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility] - Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years. "we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production" - Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck. "absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in" "we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027" - Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027. - "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027" - $COHR revenue go brrr So for regular numbers it's: - $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be happening entering Q4 into 2027 - Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2% Next quarter guide is: - Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue - Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5% Basically: $1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027) ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins) For operating margins: 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.

   2026/08/12 22:59UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   我主要想说的是，你那些商家 CW 激光供应商现在看来是**极其重要**了。 但简单说一下 $COHR 财报重点： “考虑到我们数据中心业务对光模块的需求，我预计在不远的将来我们不会对外销售磷化铟激光器。” - 如果 $AAOI 没有足够的产能用于第一代 CPO 部署，$COHR 又不向外销售，那那些对外销售 InP 激光器的公司价值就更大了。 我想这就是为什么 $MTSI 说一大堆客户正急着找他们要 InP CW DFB 激光器（而且他们直到 2027 年底都不会有显著产能上线）。 $AAOI → 内部使用 $COHR → 内部使用 买家 → 能找的产能就更少了。 “我们的积压订单现在已经排到 2027 财年，基本上已经完全订满了。我们差不多已经排到 2027 年底了。” [巨大的需求可见性] - Coherent 也提到了长期供货协议（LTA）会持续到本世纪末。所以这有点印证了 $POET 首席执行官在股东大会上说的，“三巨头”未来两年产能全卖光了。 “我们目前在组装和测试产能方面没有限制。我们真正受限的是磷化铟生产的爬坡。” - 这是给那些“瓶颈论”兄弟们说的，组装/测试不是瓶颈。 “CPO 需求绝对没有推迟。实际上，情况正好相反。我们看到需求增加了，客户甚至要求提前交付。” “我们继续预计，用于规模化应用的 CPO 收入将在 2027 年下半年开始流入。” - 如果 $LITE、$COHR 都重申 CPO 规模化应用的收入会在 2027 年下半年到来，这对其他 CPO 玩家来说是一个重要的信号。 - “到 2027 财年末，季度营收将超过 30 亿美元。” - $COHR 营收突飞猛进。 所以常规数据如下： - 营收 20.46 亿美元（环比增长 13.3%，同比增长 33.8%），主要营收增长看来会发生在进入第四季度到 2027 年。 - 非 GAAP 毛利率：40.2%。 下一季度指引是： - 营收：22-24 亿美元。 - 非 GAAP 毛利率：39.5-41.5%。 基本上就是： 16.9 亿美元 → 18.1 亿美元 → 20.5 亿美元 → 约 23.0 亿美元 → 30 亿美元（2027 财年末） 约 39% → 39.6% → 40.2% → 约 40.5%（毛利率） 营业利润率方面： 18.0% → 19.5% → 19.9% → 20.3% → 21.8% 与 $LITE 在盈利能力上的利润增长相比，我没那么印象深刻，但 $COHR 的营收规模正在迅速增长。
10. 2026/08/09 01:32UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.

    2026/08/09 01:32UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

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    我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能不能拿到更多晶圆厂产能分配的，毕竟现在连续波 DFB 短缺问题挺普遍的。 因为我很有信心，一旦通过认证并开始大规模量产，他们的产品肯定会卖脱销。 但除此之外 > 从像 $MTSI / $AAOI 这样的其他公司财报中，能再次确认供需不平衡会很有帮助。 > 上次财报中提到的与可插拔模块领域玩家的新开发/认证进展，这可能是最重要的。 > 与 $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS 的合作进展或其他机会，也许能有一些初步采购订单就更好了。 > 纳斯达克上市进展再次强调（我们已经知道计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍然把这个放在优先位置，因为它能为他们的并购提供更多资金，希望能够深化到可插拔技术栈。 我认为营收拐点大约会在 2027 年上半年出现，所以目前的营收/利润数据不太重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发布一份声明，比如“我们生产的任何东西都预计能在 2028 年售罄”之类的话，那可就太牛了。
11. 2026/08/07 12:55UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

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    Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.

    2026/08/07 12:55UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $AAOI 财报的一些懒人包要点： - 他们也提到了 DSP 和 TIA 的瓶颈，这对像 $MXL、还有 $SMTC 和 $MTSI 这样的公司来说，是一个积极的行业信号。 - 至于营收增长，他们预计第四季度营收会超过 5 亿美元，这增长简直太离谱了。 供参考： 第二季度：$1.919 亿美元 第三季度：大约 $2.55 亿 - $2.9 亿美元 第四季度：$5 亿多美元 到 2027 年年中：季度营收运行率大约 $14.1 亿美元 这些光通信公司的营收爬坡速度总是让我印象深刻。
12. 2026/08/06 23:41UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $MTSI earnings transcript: "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us". CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.

    2026/08/06 23:41UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $MTSI 财报电话会议实录： "客户正急切地找到我们，因为磷化铟DFB激光器普遍供应短缺。" 重点是"急切"、"CW DFB激光器"和"找到我们"。 像 $SIVE 和 $LITE 这样的 CW DFB 概念股，听到这个激光器瓶颈得到证实，应该会很高兴。
13. 2026/07/13 20:18UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And fits the OSINT research done with Ayar removing Macom from their website. So would agree with MS that $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR imo are the three leaders to focus on for lasers.

    2026/07/13 20:18UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $AAOI的营收主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但还没有CPO设计订单。 像$MTSI这样的其他公司，似乎因为某种原因在CPO激光器领域掉队了。 CEO说商业化时间“待定”，目前正在进行可靠性测试。这也和开源情报（OSINT）研究吻合，Ayar把Macom从他们网站上撤掉了。 所以我同意MS的看法，$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR在我看来，是激光器领域最值得关注的三大龙头。
14. 2026/06/27 02:11UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET? Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so. Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell. For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already). As well as valuations from M&A desirability. Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.

    2026/06/27 02:11UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $SPCX / 埃隆·马斯克收购了光网络初创公司 Mesh。 这家公司正在研发 1.6T OSFP（可插拔模块）。 看起来他们掌握光学引擎/封装技术，但很可能会从外部供应商那里采购 CW DFB 激光器。 $SIVE 是其中一家对初创公司比较友好的潜在商业供应商，就像 Ayar 与 $POET 的合作那样？ 也许 $LITE 和 $MTSI 也有一点历史渊源，但可能性小一些。 不管怎样，最近很多初创公司（比如 Celestial）被 Marvell 收购，这是非常积极的信号。 对商业激光器供应商的收入来说（与初创公司合作 → 被设计进去后，像 SpaceX 这样的超大规模客户会带来收入）。 对并购带来的估值也有好处。 这也说明，如果埃隆·马斯克直接买下这些公司，光互连就是正确的方向。
15. 2026/06/17 11:24UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.

    2026/06/17 11:24UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    Trendforce 报道说 $AMD 正在积极争取 CW 激光供应，下了好几笔大采购订单…… 这可能只是瓶颈的开始吧？ 西方供应链中，除了 $SIVE 和 $AAOI，可能还有 Macom 之外，已经没多少独立的产能了。 尤其是在 Lumentum/Coherent 和英伟达签了好几年协议，产能都被锁住之后。（披露：持有 Sive 和 aaoi） Lumentum 的 CW 激光供应已经很紧张了，根据财报我猜他们可能正在从住友/古河电工这类日本公司那里采购，而这些公司大概也已经满负荷运转了。 根据 Trendforce 的报告，这是： “为了确保其未来的产能不会受到英伟达和其他主要云服务提供商（CSP）的限制。” 如果亚马逊、微软等其他超大规模企业看到英伟达/AMD 签署了长期协议，然后也开始争取产能，我一点也不会感到惊讶。 很大程度上这是一种博弈论，为了不被竞争对手卡脖子，看起来英伟达之后，AMD 正在推倒第一块多米诺骨牌。 但我的看法是，这恰好说明了 CW 激光这个“瓶颈”有多么宝贵，以及处于这个瓶颈中的公司有多重要。
16. 2026/06/16 05:13UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.

    2026/06/16 05:13UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
17. 2026/06/16 02:20UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.

    2026/06/16 02:20UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。 并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息） 明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。 也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。 我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。 这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
18. 2026/06/15 13:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.

    2026/06/15 13:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。 然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。 每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。 再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。 甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。 现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。 一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
19. 2026/06/15 07:25UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi. https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU

    2026/06/15 07:25UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    哇，$IQE 和 $TSEM 签了一份多年期的 InP 外延片协议。 还记得我当初在 $12 的时候告诉你们，IQE 对西方光通信供应链有多重要吗？ $MTSI 当初可是费了很大劲才跟 IQE 锁定了供应。 现在又跟 Tower Semi 签了一个关键协议。https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU
20. 2026/06/12 07:22UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today. Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers. This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints are. (disclosure: have positions in IQE)

    2026/06/12 07:22UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    VPEC 今天对 Epiwafers 进行新一轮涨价。 这对 $IQE 和 Landmark (3081) 这类公司在定价能力和 Epiwafers 需求方面是个积极的瓶颈信号。 此前 $MTSI 投资 IQE 以确保产能，这显示出这些瓶颈环节有多关键。 （披露：持有 IQE 仓位）
21. 2026/06/07 10:48UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.

    2026/06/07 10:48UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键看结构。 如果你是在做一笔 $6 亿的 ATM 融资，用来建激光器晶圆产能，在 2027 年上半年每个月 4.71 亿美元（较低市值区间）的节奏下跟 $AAOI 合作，那这就是增厚型的。 如果你是为了满足纳斯达克上市要求，用 $SIVE 稀释 15%，然后把募集资金拿去做并购，那也是增厚型的。 如果你跟 $IQE 一起稀释，通过跟 $MTSI 做私募来清掉过去的有毒债务，那也是增厚型的。 但如果你是像 $IREN 那样，一次稀释 $60 亿，然后大概率趁 $SLNH / $BKKT 的托们每次拉升时把这些股抛到公开市场上——而这些小散里多数最后都归零了——那这就是掠夺性的。
22. 2026/06/04 08:45UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.

    2026/06/04 08:45UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    大公司想随便收购像 $SIVE 这种拿了《芯片法案》资金的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种有政府背景的，其实有点难度。 有些风投部门有时候也会错过机会。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会在六月的投票后入股 $SIVE。
23. 2026/06/04 07:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

    2026/06/04 07:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $SIVE 看起来既是明年 CPO 的关卡，又是它的瓶颈。 总能看到非技术人员发布的信息，完全忽略了各种细节。 下面说说原因： 1. CW 激光器受到 $LITE 财报所显示的瓶颈制约。 激光晶圆厂的大量产能都被分配给了 EML，很可能来自 $NVDA 之前的合同。 → 住友电工/古河电气 = 瓶颈 → Win Semi = 瓶颈 $SIVE 做的是 Fab-lite 模式，那它算不算瓶颈？ 是的，$SIVE 就卡在这个激光瓶颈里，因为他们很早就掌控了从 Win Semi 和其他晶圆厂流出的 CW 激光器产能分配权（CEO 说过他们也在与其他厂商合作，增加更多产能）。 完美的例子是 Kioxia/Sandisk。$SNDK 控制着 NAND 的产出，所以他们就是瓶颈，因为他们控制着最终定价。 Ayar、Jabil、其他可插拔模块厂商，加上 Nvidia NVLink CPO 生态，需求超过了供给……最终激光器供应掌握在 $SIVE 手里，这就让 Sivers 成了瓶颈。 $SIVE 很可能也是 Jabil、Gen-1 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial，以及其他超大规模 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线的主供或唯一来源。所以绕不开它（单通道 CW 激光器没法热替换掉 Sivers）。 2. $SIVE 是 CPO 的关卡。 $NVDA 用的是 $COHR、$LITE（后者很可能从日本竞争对手那里外购 CW 产能）。 $AVGO 很可能也是垂直整合的。 然而：它周围整个生态，从 ASIC 项目（Marvell、AlChip 等）到商用项目（Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence），很可能都是围绕 $SIVE 设计的。 比如 Ayar，2022 年可能尝试过从 $MTSI / $LITE 做多源采购，但它们的激光器在阵列规格上可能达不到 Sivers 的水平（最近他们从供应链网站上去掉了 Lumentum / Macom）。 如果至少在初期几代产品中没有替代方案（显然他们正在努力做多源采购），那就让 $SIVE 成了激光器领域一个结构性的、必须通过的关卡。 即使看看 $JBL 设计的 1.6T LRO，他们也通过围绕 $SIVE（可能是唯一来源）的性能，建立了一道“巨大的护城河”。 $SIVE 也是 $GFS 的代工厂级参考激光器设计，而你的超大规模客户（比如 $AMD，Gen1 很可能用的是 Sivers + 也许还有 Ayar）都在用 $GFS： 如果每一个尚未实现垂直整合的主要玩家（Nvidia/Broadcom）都在 CPO 中使用 Sivers…… 那他们就构成了一个关卡。 看看整个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态的合作伙伴：每一个都很可能在使用 Sivers。而且它们全都用 $GFS（Sivers 在这里是默认参考设计）。 所以当 CPO 在 2027 年下半年真正起量时，$SIVE 既是关卡又是瓶颈，而这次 CPO 是有史以来最大的架构变革之一（根据高盛研究报告，TAM 从接近 $0 到未来 1 年半内变成 $81B 或 $91B）。 这就是为什么我说 $SIVE 看起来像未来的 $75B 体量的 $LITE，会在未来几年内实现。 这一切都将在明年上演。 而它现在的市值，还不到一家拿着 $50M 采购协议、把 Sivers 的激光器买回来重新包装的公司。
24. 2026/06/03 07:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.

    2026/06/03 07:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
25. 2026/05/27 15:07UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream

    2026/05/27 15:07UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    他们傻吗？ $JBL 宣布需求大于供应，这预示着 $SIVE 的激光器将进入大规模量产。 Ayar 筹集了 5 亿美元用于量产放量，并放弃了 $LITE 和 $MTSI，转投 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。 $AMD 选择了 $GFS，并且有很大概率在它们的 CPO 计划中使用 Sivers 的产品。 Sivers 还暗示了并购的可能，这会大幅扩展下游的可触达市场。
26. 2026/05/26 11:57UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.

    2026/05/26 11:57UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $SIVE 在我看来是最有吸引力的 CPO 概念股。 虽然它波动很大。 但你可能要到几年后光子学领域下一次架构变革时，才能再找到这样的标的。 核心激光器供应商里，它们市值不都是几百亿吗？ $AAOI = 150 亿美元 古河电工 = 260 亿美元 $MTSI = 290 亿美元 住友电工 = 590 亿美元 $COHR = 730 亿美元 $LITE = 740 亿美元 然后 $SIVE 作为核心 CPO 激光器瓶颈之一，市值只有 23 亿美元。 财报通常只是确认那些小信号——比如 Jabil 电话会纪要里关于 1.6T LRO 的量产线索。 而大部分收益往往是在正式确认之前赚到的，而不是之后，这只是一条经验法则。
27. 2026/05/24 04:51UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.

    2026/05/24 04:51UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    一股 $SIVE 我都不会卖。 我个人觉得，这是十年一遇的多头机会，毕竟他们已经打进了那么多家超大规模云服务商的供应链。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔光模块和 CPO 的 TAM 扩张预测，简直夸张。 如果你还没读过 $JBL 那场线上交流的文字记录，里面确认了需求和时间线。 或者没注意到 Ayar 已经从官网上去掉了 Lumentum 和 Macom 这两家激光器供应商，这验证了他们的护城河。 或者没看到光是《芯片法案》的拨款就已经确认了它的技术重要性。 或者没意识到管理层在我看来每一步都走对了——从纳斯达克上市到转向并购聚焦，都验证了未来增长的远景。 按现在的估值来看，向上的空间实在太诱人了。 而且机构资金才刚刚开始进场……接下来下个月，纳斯达克、贝莱德、MSCI 这些指数就会带来数千万美元的被动长期新资金流入。