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历史观点（26 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文You've been supporting me from the very start, thank you so much! I still remember your first translation post helped me get popular. Before I was just able to wait for my thesis to play out like $NBIS even in the drops, since I didn't have so many followers. Now everyone's monitoring day-to-day price volatility and commenting about it so it's harder to ignore.中文 · 翻译你从一开始就在支持我，真的非常感谢！ 我还记得是你第一次翻译我的帖子，帮我开始火起来的。 之前我没那么多关注者的时候，只能等着自己的判断兑现，就像 $NBIS 这样，就算跌了也扛着。 现在每个人都在盯着每天的涨跌波动，还跑来评论，所以更难无视了。
- English · 原文OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.中文 · 翻译我当然知道。但我个人睡得挺安稳，因为我对自己的超大规模数据中心映射研究有底气，而且持有 $SIVE。 没错，我还是拿着那一百多万股的头寸。 不知道大家有没有意识到：我来这里就是分享我的想法和观点。 我控制不了市场波动，也管不了你们怎么做决定，更左右不了市场对新信息整合的反应。 对分析师来说，最安全的做法就是摩根士丹利/摩根大通/高盛一出报告就跟着附和，然后总结一下。 而不是自己从开源情报（OSINT）映射里琢磨新想法，再等它们被验证。 因为当你发现一个新角度时： 每个人都在激烈争论 4-6 英寸磷化铟晶圆厂、员工数量、他们的超大规模客户是谁、产能爬坡时间线等等，就为了跟你唱反调。 然后还要时刻盯着每一个 5%-20% 的价格波动。 我不得不更频繁地讨论这个标的，因为它还没被充分验证，而且总是有激烈的争论。就像 2 月的 $EWY，我当时做了内存预测，还分析了氦气/液化天然气/石油。 但几个月后，大家看到内存结构变得稳固（美光签了 16 份以上的长期协议），液化天然气也没把 SK 海力士的利润打下来。 还有去年的 $NBIS，当时在谈分部估值/摊薄结构 vs $IREN。 现在它接近历史新高，还进了 $QQQ 指数。 我本人只是在等 Sivers 在 2027 年产能爬坡，并在纳斯达克上市来支持他们的并购活动。 这样他们就能走 $LITE 当年的路——从 30 亿美元市值涨到 600 亿美元以上。
- English · 原文@CryptoBankz_65 $NBIS has anime protagonist armor and an OpenAI hedge fund guy diamond handing the stock.中文 · 翻译@CryptoBankz_65 $NBIS 自带动漫主角光环护体，再加上有个 OpenAI 对冲基金大佬在那死拿这票不撒手。
- English · 原文@JJJJJ_66666 Because I’m comparing thesis timeframes when I said $IREN was dogsht after endless dilution and a GPU pivot from Colo. I had $IREN last year and sold it for $NBIS and others. Turns out that was the correct idea, but IREN bagholders can’t admit it中文 · 翻译@JJJJJ_66666 因为我是在比较不同论据的时间框架，我当时说 $IREN 在无休止的稀释和从 Colo 转向 GPU 之后就是个垃圾货。 我去年持有过 $IREN，然后卖掉换成了 $NBIS 和其他标的。 事实证明那是对的，但 $IREN 的接盘侠们就是不肯承认。
- English · 原文@Starter9191 Yeah not looking much better last year either for $IREN. When everyone kept trying to trash talk $NBIS that ended up compounding another 3-4x. https://t.co/QDz5RqYoEv中文 · 翻译@Starter9191 是啊，去年 $IREN 的状况也好不到哪儿去。 当每个人都一个劲地唱衰 $NBIS 的时候，人家又涨了 3-4 倍。https://t.co/QDz5RqYoEv
- English · 原文I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd中文 · 翻译真好奇错过 AI 超级周期行情是什么感觉…… 光子学、存储、 还有像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud， 因为你忙着在那儿死扛 $IREN 那一个个永不枯竭的 60 亿美元自动取款机呢。https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd
- English · 原文And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate? https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3中文 · 翻译7 个月后…… $NBIS 创了历史新高。 而 $IREN 的接盘侠们还在给那个 60 亿美元的 ATM 融资计划输血，股价还卡在去年 11 月的老位置。 猜猜这算不算把争论给结了？https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3
- English · 原文@88magalhaes Lmfao actually $SPCX uses $NBIS now. Did not think of that angle. Don’t think it’s anything newly material though for Nebius, just a fun connection.中文 · 翻译@88magalhaes 哈哈，实际上 $SPCX 现在用的是 $NBIS。之前没想到这个角度。 不过也不觉得这对 Nebius 有什么新的实质性影响，就是个有趣的关联。
- English · 原文I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.中文 · 翻译我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。 现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。 连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。 但那些接盘的还不肯承认。 我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。 要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？ 光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。 但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。 而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文@pepemoonboy Yep, $NBIS in specific looks like the next hyperscaler! excited to see its growth中文 · 翻译@pepemoonboy 是的，特别是 $NBIS 看起来就是下一个超大规模云服务商！很期待它的成长。
- English · 原文Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T中文 · 翻译哇，$NBIS、$ALAB 和 $RKLB 被纳入纳斯达克 100 了！ 看着 Astera、Rocketlab 和 Weebius 从当年的小公司一步步成长… 现在变成纳斯达克上最大的那些之一，挺有意思的 https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译说白了就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户冲得太早了，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 上几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在，你会看到摩根大通、富达研究这些活跃机构出现在股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生过同样的事。 > 我当时指出机构累积持仓接近<30%，还说过他们想要更多筹码。 > 机构把流通盘大部分都吃掉了 > 当时一堆负面文章，现在全是利好，股价还创新高。 两年前是 $RKLB > 我 $16 的时候就做多了，但机构分析师一直在给历史最低的目标价，叫散户卖，尽管它的火箭复用率那么高。 > 散户卖了，机构持仓却堆上去了 > 现在又创新高 我看好 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有人暗示你在 $HIMX 旁边、以 25 亿美元估值就卖掉它。 所以如果你看到卖方的负面报告，或者一波莫名其妙的坏消息，那可能是个好信号——他们需要流动性。 最近一些小型对冲基金已经急到甚至可能在 X 上用机器人农场来喊散户卖股票了，哈哈……我最近刚揭露过这事。 不管怎样，这也是为什么我花大量时间研究具体个股，这样人们才能在噪声中建立自己的信念。 不幸的是，这就是现代流动性周期/转移（美国散户 → 机构）运作的一部分，是生活的常态。 它们从来就不是为散户的利益服务的。
- English · 原文@soulbiri1 I think only $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL are red since that mention. Maybe like 1-2 flat like $HOOD But 25 for 30 like $NBIS green, and many by triple digits is pretty solid if you do equal weighted.中文 · 翻译@soulbiri1 我觉得只有 $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL 自那之后是红的。 大概有 1-2 个像 $HOOD 这样是平的。 但 30 个里有 25 个像 $NBIS 是绿的，而且不少涨幅双位数，如果你做等权重配置的话，这成绩挺不错的。
- English · 原文Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.中文 · 翻译当然，第一重要的是毒性融资结构 / 流通股动态。 最好的例子就是当前的新一代云服务商格局： - $IREN 基本就是垃圾，因为他们有 60 亿美元的 ATM 增发额度，几乎无限稀释，大概率每次反弹都在卖（结构性压制） - 而 $NBIS 今年至今已经涨了 153%+，靠的是最优结构（比如 $NVDA 直接投资、混搭可转债等）。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款买 GPU，背负着无尽的债务利息。 这事非常微妙，但你必须关注流通股的动态。 如果这家公司确实质地不错，那等现有持有人被稀释到快没了之后，或许是个做多的好时机。 但如果你在意自己股权的增值，就最好离这种毒性融资结构或毒性压制（比如债务利息长期蚕食公司自由现金流）远远的。 小公司里这种情况比比皆是，比如 $SLNH，市值才 2.5 亿美元，却搞了个新的 5 亿美元 ATM 增发。 或者像 $BKKT，为了给高管发工资搞了没完没了的稀释。 这类公司，基本上就是 KOL 们在吹的时候，你把钱转给了公司。所以这些都是红旗。 很多软件股，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利数据来掩盖股权激励。所以虽然公司账面看着是赚钱的，但你的股权价值很可能因为稀释而缩水。 筛选标的时，这类股权结构无穷无尽，你必须仔细看。
- English · 原文@EestiRadar Glad $NBIS turned out well, that drawdown after blowout earnings was pretty brutal.中文 · 翻译@EestiRadar 很高兴 $NBIS 最后结果不错，财报大超预期后那波回撤可够狠的。
- English · 原文@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV中文 · 翻译@BKCY314 融资结构完全不同，$CRWV 被债务利息吃掉了。 $IREN 因为过量 ATM 融资，几乎没有权益增值。 $NBIS 就刚好到位，而且还有旗下子公司 Avride 加上 Clickhouse 持股的综合价值。 https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
- English · 原文Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW中文 · 翻译有意思，看到我最有信心的 Neocloud 标的 $NBIS 越陈越香。 去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 板块将成为主要趋势的论点。 然后挑中了那个王者。 -> 从 $IREN 到 $CRWV，Nebius 是整个板块里表现最好的。 $84 → $260。 市场验证了这个观点。 https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
- English · 原文Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO中文 · 翻译好吧，确实该更相信黄仁勋（Jensen）对 $MRVL 的判断，毕竟他之前对 $NBIS 就这么干过。 这次他对 Marvell 可是给出了 1 万亿美元的目标价。 一句话就让 Marvell 涨了 35%……https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO
- English · 原文@JonahK44 $NBIS is $META and $MSFT. $GOOGL has done a lot of Fluidstack deals with $CIFR to $WULF for more Colo. my guess is to plug in a lot more of their TPUS中文 · 翻译@JonahK44 $NBIS 就是 $META 和 $MSFT。 $GOOGL 跟 $CIFR 和 $WULF 做了不少 Fluidstack 交易，都是为了扩充 Colo。我猜他们是想接入更多自家的 TPU。
- English · 原文Macron announces that $NBIS invests €8B to build out AI Cloud Infrastructure in France. This was my favorite comment: “What about the Water” https://t.co/nlTb37BgE3中文 · 翻译马克龙宣布 $NBIS 投资 80 亿欧元在法国建设 AI 云基础设施。 这是我看到最搞笑的评论： "水怎么解决" https://t.co/nlTb37BgE3
- English · 原文@Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.中文 · 翻译@Anon1pvi 不太看好 $CRWV，债务利息太高了。 至于 $IREN，无限 ATM 增发机制在结构上就限制了上行空间。 $NBIS 是新云领域里那个"刚刚好"的玩家。
- English · 原文Holy sht, plot armor confirmed with $NBIS https://t.co/1QwwKSRxSt中文 · 翻译卧槽，这剧情光环实锤了 $NBIS https://t.co/1QwwKSRxSt
- English · 原文Look who joined team $NBIS. 5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN. That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND中文 · 翻译看看谁加入了 $NBIS 的阵营。 5.6% 的持股比例相当大了，可能他现在也意识到，这比那个一团糟的 $IREN 要好太多了。 话说回来：自从我去年做多以来，Nebius 现在涨了大约 3 倍。 Weebius 自带主角光环。https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.中文 · 翻译@realstockfox 对，我挺确定的，$INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到 2029 年还会在…… 不需要不停买入新的/不同的美股仓位，就让你手里的那些随着时间慢慢复利就行。