NBIS · Serenity 持续观点

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

44.8万

专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。

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NBIS 整体偏多（看多 34 · 看空 1）

作为新云服务提供商，受益于大量的AI资本支出投资流。

最近发言：2026/08/24 15:23 · 信心分 6/10

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历史观点（56 条，最新在上）

2026/08/24 15:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$NVDA, following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production. With $NBIS the first to adopt through Nebius token factory. - 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context - 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius. That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures. Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.
2026/08/24 15:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
$NVDA，继他们那笔200亿美元的交易之后……宣布 Groq3 LPX 已全面投产。 $NBIS 是首个通过 Nebius 代币工厂采纳这项技术的。 - 在 Artificial Analysis 的基准测试中，运行 Gemma 4 31B，每秒3,400个token，支持10万token上下文 - 响应速度比最接近的替代品快4倍让我注意的是……英伟达向 Nebius 投资20亿美元后发布的一份新闻稿。里面提到会支持他们“早期采用英伟达最新一代”的架构。看来我们现在看到的就是这种特殊待遇了。
2026/08/18 14:15UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.
2026/08/18 14:15UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@abbysuyuyan 说实话，$AAOI 是我唯一希望它能跌回 $80 好让我能加仓的股票。激光股的需求可见度简直不可思议，一直到 2027 年都是这样…… 对像 $NBIS 这样的新云股，或者像 $SNDK 这样的存储股，情况也一样。
2026/08/12 21:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@mikealfred Bears are going back into hibernation after seeing all these AI earning reports from $NBIS to $LITE.
2026/08/12 21:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@mikealfred 空头们看到从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 这些 AI 财报后，又要冬眠去了。
2026/08/12 12:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.
2026/08/12 12:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
从去年开始，和 $NBIS 以及其他新兴云服务公司比起来，我对 $CRWV 一直都挺看空的。需求倒不是什么大问题，他们有 1000 亿+ 美元的积压订单，营收和 59% 的调整后 EBITDA 利润率看起来也很不错。但底层的融资方式真的很糟糕... Coreweave 的债务利息 (比如，二季度利息支出就达到了 6.4 亿美元)，这块吃掉了太多自由现金流 (FCF)... 作为参考，这个数字大概是 Coreweave 15.1 亿美元调整后 EBITDA 的 42%。
2026/08/12 12:23UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.
2026/08/12 12:23UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
$NBIS 的展望又一次相当炸裂。营收 $5.823 亿（同比增长 454%，环比增长 46%），其中 AI 云业务的调整后 EBITDA 利润率接近 50%。手头现金 $80.4 亿。公司重申了财务指引（2026 年营收：$3
2026/08/10 02:03UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
2026/08/10 02:03UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
就说几个近期的事件吧： - 明天就是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA），届时你们关注的CPO玩家会发布公告/更新。这应该会对某些光模块公司形成催化剂。 - 财报周：今天有$ASTS、$RKLB（航天领域）发财报，周二有$LITE（光子学领域），周中有$NBIS（Neocloud），等等。 - Unitree的IPO申购今天开放了，预计本月上市。如果它上市表现不错，这应该会对人形机器人+机器人板块形成一个潜在的催化剂，比如$CCXI。接下来一周会很有趣。
2026/08/08 18:27UTC看空新建跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU
2026/08/08 18:27UTC看空新建跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
今天我来写一篇周末指南，教你做空 $NBIS 时怎么做尽职调查（DD）：首先，你要看看那些超大规模云服务商（hyperscaler）的财报，从中解读AI云业务的表现： > $GOOGL：财报显示AI云需求创纪录、积压订单量大增，利润率也提高了。 > $AMZN：财报显示AI云需求创纪录、积压订单量大增，利润率也提高了。 > $META：财报显示，可用产能的价格超出了预期。好了，现在来看看 Nebius： -> $NBIS：到第四季度，年化经常性收入（ARR）将增长几百个百分点，达到 70-90 亿美元。利润率也在增长，并且指引了 4GW+ 的合同电力。 -> 看到 Uber/Waymo 正在分拆，更多精力放在 Avride 上。 -> 看到 Clickhouse 每个季度都在快速增长。好了，看起来不妙！但接下来，你需要对冲吗？ -> 哇！一个 $NIKE 的品牌高管，在 $NIKE 股票过去五年跌了 75% 之后，接下来竟然去了 $LULU 拯救那个品牌？Lululemon 看起来不错。结论：做空 Nebius，做多 $LULU。
2026/07/31 19:35UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Situational Awareness / Leopold was completely right in terms of US shifting more toward inference + large energy demand. I had a similar thesis with Neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, and others last year in 2025. But shifted more towards upstream bottlenecks + networking personally. It's just a little unfortunate the fund couldn't fully survive the drawdown. We did overlap in memory concentration but energy/grid from $BE, $TE, or neoclouds like $SHAZ / $IREN but I'd expect them to outperform given compute/capacity shortages.
2026/07/31 19:35UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
态势感知：Leopold 说得完全对，美国正更多地转向推理，而且能源需求巨大。我去年在 2025 年也对 Neoclouds 有类似的看法，比如 $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 等。但我个人更多转向了上游瓶颈和网络。只是有点遗憾，基金没能完全挺过那次回撤。我们在内存集中度上确实有重叠，不过像 $BE、$TE 这样的能源/电网股，或者像 $SHAZ / $IREN 这样的 Neocl
2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.
2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
Citadel 刚刚真的清盘了 Situational Awareness… 然后第二天就把整个大盘拉起来了？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 还有好多其他股票。这绝对是我见过最疯狂的清盘之一。
2026/07/30 07:26UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.
2026/07/30 07:26UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
我觉得我（或者任何人）都无法准确抄底。不然，如果他们知道的话，直接玩周度期权就行了。不过，有些股票真的很难再跌了，比如 $AAOI 的年化远期营收/市值比都快接近 1 倍了。 $POET 跌得太多了，现在大概是 8 亿美元现金对 10.8 亿美元市值。总的来说，连 Leopond 都觉得现在的估值极具吸引力，所以他正在筹集更多资金来逢低买入。不过谁知道呢？但从中长期来看，根据我自己的理论，我预计一旦营收预测体现在财报中，它们就会有好的表现。我重申了 $AAOI 的营收拐点在 2027 年上半年末…… $NBIS 的营收拐点在 2026 年第四季度，依此类推，这是我自己的估计。当然，在那之前会有很多波动。
2026/07/29 23:13UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.
2026/07/29 23:13UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
简单总结一下 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会的几点收获：微软： - 预计到2027年自由现金流（FCF）转正，尽管资本支出（capex）在增加（这对于AI基础设施建设是天大的利好，因为它的资金来源是运营收入） - “自由现金流为19
2026/07/24 20:22UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT. My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up. And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players, or vertical integration would be the optimal path forward. Now their own partner Waymo looks to be the strongest disruptor to Uber.
2026/07/24 20:22UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
这下好了，$GOOGL 旗下的 Waymo 准备跟 $UBER 探索分拆，消息来自《金融时报》。我去年就觉得 Uber 和 Waymo 合作是个臭棋……因为随着谷歌（Waymo 母公司）规模扩大，Uber 最终只会变成谷歌需要的那个分销渠道。当时我认为，$NBIS Avride、其他中立玩家，或者垂直整合才是最优解。结果现在，Waymo 这个 Uber 自己的合作伙伴，反而成了对 Uber 威胁最大的颠覆者。
2026/07/21 08:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
2026/07/21 08:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
铠侠系的存储股今天猛涨了17.18%。三星也涨了6.15%。 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 这些光网络股都在展现复苏迹象，全部涨了4%以上。从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的 Neoclouds 概念股，盘前全部涨了4%以上。从 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL，这些股都涨了4%以上。难道克拉默效应要对整个AI概念股都起作用了吗？
2026/07/20 21:38UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.
2026/07/20 21:38UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
如果你好奇为什么 $NBIS 盘后涨了。 $NVDA 披露，它通过 SEC 备案文件拥有 Nebius 9.3% 的实益所有权。其实这不算什么太新的消息，因为这可以追溯到英伟达之前持有的 119 万股股份，以及一份 20 亿美元的预付认股权证（对应约 2100 万股）。但对于市场情绪来说，英伟达能成为 Neocloud 领导者的大股东，这是个好消息。
2026/07/20 17:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
2026/07/20 17:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
$IREN 涨了 19.69%，因为它将年度经常性收入 (ARR) 目标从新的 AI 云计算合同上调至 40 亿美元以上。现在它的客户群包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 涨了 10.45%，这得益于它签署了一份为期 15 年、价值 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议。 $CIFR 涨了 16.76% $CLSK 涨了 13.7% $WYFI 涨了 9.18% 不过 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在磨蹭呢。但看起来确实，新兴云服务/托管服务商 (Colo players) 们正在强劲复苏，这得益于 Kimi 算力短缺的消息和新合同等新的催化剂。
2026/07/17 17:51UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
2026/07/17 17:51UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
$META 据说正在谈判，想把算力租给 Anthropic，这笔交易估计值 100 亿美元。看来他们是看到 $SPCX 那笔 450 亿美元的算力租赁有多赚钱了。不过这正好也验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 还有其他这类新云业务模式的价值，毕竟连超大规模云服务商都在“抄作业”了。来源：纽约时报 https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
2026/07/14 14:57UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.
2026/07/14 14:57UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
$NBIS 和 Reflection AI 签署了一份10亿多美元的算力协议，获得到2029年的GB300算力。 Reflection 之前也和 $SPCX 签署了一份数十亿美元的协议。至少可以说很有意思的是，今天 Nebius 竟然因为这消息跌了5%。另外…这个交易对手方能达成这笔交易，有点让我想起 OpenAI，就是他们可能还没像 $META 或 $MSFT 那样，有足够的资金来真正执行这些长期协议。但从长期来看，这总体上是积极的进展，毕竟客户多元化一直是 Nebius 的核心优势之一。
2026/07/08 20:18UTC看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.
2026/07/08 20:18UTC看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
这么说吧：散户觉得跌个 30-60% 就是“飞刀”，套牢的人永远翻不了身。然后他们看到那些波浪线技术分析，还有人把有价值的咽喉要道公司跟那些梗股相提并论，结果就恐慌性抛售了。我把这看作是长期持有以下资产的机会： - 下一个超大规模数据中心供应商，$NBIS，预计第四季度年化收入达到 70-90 亿美元 - 拥有 40% 的磷化铟供应链份额，$AXTI - 下一个光通信技术变革的领导者，$SIVE，拥有连续波DFB激光器 - 美国人形机器人领域的领导者，$CCXI，未来万亿级主题的核心诸如此类……而且估值更便宜。虽然我可能会通过降低保证金或对冲我的投资组合来做些调整，但如果投资逻辑没变，我个人在股票下跌时并不会恐慌。非投资建议，显然这也取决于大家的投资时间框架：因为对那些靠投资支付房租或学费的人来说，一次暴跌可能会改变他们的人生。（这也是为什么我个人认为其他人应该做自己的尽职调查，并根据自己的风险承受能力选择长期持有的股票）但我个人的目标是在下一代超级周期到来之前，尽可能多地布局。我觉得机构也是这么想的，这也是为什么在整个过程中会有很多诱导性波动，以最大化他们的仓位。如果投资逻辑最终被证实是正确的，那么估值长期来看也会体现出来。
2026/07/07 14:03UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.
2026/07/07 14:03UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
就随便说一下我的看法：如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 这些股票，还有其他一些，都跟着一起崩盘…… 这些今天目前为止跌幅都在 -4% 到 -10% 以上。那这可能就和个股基本面没什么关系了。像瀑布式保证金清算这类原因导致的无差别抛售，如果标的公司基本面在改善的话，通常会带来非常不错的机会。
2026/07/06 21:25UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@platochi Yeah, $NBIS also had a painful like 5 months of chopping after they projected something crazy like $7B ARR by Q4 2026 earnings. Makes you doubt sometimes
2026/07/06 21:25UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@platochi 是啊，$NBIS 之前也经历了痛苦的差不多 5 个月震荡，当时他们预测到 2026 年第四季度财报能实现 70 亿美元的 ARR，太疯狂了。有时候会让人怀疑人生。
2026/07/06 15:54UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco Yep $NBIS early day drawdowns were insane. There were short sellers bear posting Nebius and neocloud models left and right. All of those seem to have vanished together lol
2026/07/06 15:54UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco 是啊，$NBIS 早期回撤简直离谱。当时做空者对 Nebius 和 neocloud 模型各种唱空。现在看来那些人都消失了，哈哈。
2026/07/04 07:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists? Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography… It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day. If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute? https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT
2026/07/04 07:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
今天才知道有浮动数据中心和海上计算这东西？据说它能免费冷却，对地理位置紧张的地方来说特别理想… 想象一下，有一天你坐游轮，旁边漂过一堆 $NBIS 或三星的浮动 AI 数据中心，那场面得多野啊。如果这玩意儿真能像轨道计算一样普及，那可就厉害了？https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT
2026/07/03 05:58UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others: “We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”. “Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”. Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute… When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5. I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.
2026/07/03 05:58UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
SemiAnalysis 关于 $META “产能过剩” 和市场对 $NBIS 及其他公司的反应： “我们相信 Meta 的数据中心和计算能力将加速发展。” “2027 年的资本支出将高得惊人。” 最近全球市场的暴跌，尤其是在光子学领域，真是太蠢了……完全是基于 Meta 将退出 AI 竞赛、出售过剩算力的误导性叙述…… 而事实上，随着 Meta 追赶 GPT5.5，一切很可能都会加速。我个人预计会有一个 V 形强劲反弹，特别是那些因为这个说法而暴跌了 50% 以上的公司。
2026/07/02 19:12UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.
2026/07/02 19:12UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
每次看到半导体市场因为彭博社的报道措辞再次暴跌，都觉得挺有意思的… 瑞银分析师评论 $META 财报说：“这不是什么新消息。” 但不管怎么说： $AEHR 下跌 -18.3% $AAOI 下跌 -17.13% $SIVEF 下跌 -15.4% $SNDK 下跌 -14.8% $TER 下跌 -13.8% $GLW 下跌 -11.4% $MRVL 下跌 -11.2% $LITE 下跌 -10.2% $NBIS 下跌 -7.8% 看到这个，我都想起彭博社今年早些时候那篇关于 AMD/Nvidia 全球出口管制的误导性报道，当时也搞得半导体股票大跌，简直要犯 PTSD 了。顺便提一下：如果 Meta 真有过剩产能并且能削减资本支出，他们就不会随便买下价值超过 480 亿美元的 Neocoud 合同了… 市场有时候就是这么傻。
2026/07/02 06:58UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18% On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop. So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr
2026/07/02 06:58UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@DogUrineCapital 看到 $MRVL 跌了 11%，$AMAT 跌了 11%，到 $NBIS 跌了 18%，真是让人有点恶心。往好的一面看，很多高贝塔/小盘股，像 $AAOI，提前预警了这次下跌。所以它们表现得还不错 https://t.co/OEyJYiQQr
2026/07/01 13:42UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”. This is an “if” they have excess capacity. And it looks like the opposite right now: Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta back in March. Since Meta was using too much for internal projects. Meta was immediately constrained so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48B+ contracts with Neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS. Meta is selling excess capacity if there’s any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the Neoclouds. If anything, I’m expecting their guided capex to go up as they build out more independent capacity.
2026/07/01 13:42UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
关于 $META “削减资本支出”是因为他们“超建了”的谣言很多。这有个前提，那就是他们真的有过剩产能。但现在看起来，情况恰恰相反：像 $GOOGL 这样的超大规模云厂商，计算资源紧张到三月份就不得不削减给 Meta 的分配。因为 Meta 用了太多资源来做内部项目。 Meta 立即受到了限制，所以看起来他们被迫立马和像 $CRWV、$NBIS 这样的“新云”公司签下了超过 480 亿美元的巨额合同。 Meta 如果真有闲置产能的话，那肯定是正在出售，尤其是考虑到他们和这些新云公司签的大合同都是照付不议的。要我说的话，我反而预计他们指导的资本支出会增加，因为他们要建设更多自己的独立产能。
2026/07/01 13:14UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms. Costco: sells $5 chickens. Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”. Stock Market: sells off Costco.
2026/07/01 13:14UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
好的，这是推文的翻译： Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms. Costco: sells $5 chickens. Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”. Stock Market: sells off Costco. 用简单的话来说，现在 Neoclouds 比如 $NBIS 的情况，基本就跟开盘前一样。好市多：卖 5 美元一只的鸡。沃尔玛：大量采购这些烤鸡，然后把多余的作为“沃尔玛鸡”出售。股市：抛售好市多。
2026/07/01 12:56UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@Deebeeng10 The Neoclouds like $NBIS are probably the ones powering this offering lol.
2026/07/01 12:56UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@Deebeeng10 像 $NBIS 这样的 Neoclouds 公司，很可能就是这项服务的幕后推手吧，哈哈。
2026/06/30 07:00UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@EndicottInvests Good times, wasn’t too long ago back at 3K followers! Discussion on $NBIS was fun back when there was a lot of debate on Neoclouds and it was still really early. Thanks for the support, fun to see your account grow as well
2026/06/30 07:00UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@EndicottInvests 美好时光，不久前粉丝才三千！聊 $NBIS 的时候也很有趣，那时候大家对 Neoclouds 还有很多争议，而且它还处于非常早期。谢谢支持，很高兴看到你的账号也成长起来了
2026/06/26 10:06UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
You've been supporting me from the very start, thank you so much! I still remember your first translation post helped me get popular. Before I was just able to wait for my thesis to play out like $NBIS even in the drops, since I didn't have so many followers. Now everyone's monitoring day-to-day price volatility and commenting about it so it's harder to ignore.
2026/06/26 10:06UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
你从一开始就在支持我，真的非常感谢！我还记得是你第一次翻译我的帖子，帮我开始火起来的。之前我没那么多关注者的时候，只能等着自己的判断兑现，就像 $NBIS 这样，就算跌了也扛着。现在每个人都在盯着每天的涨跌波动，还跑来评论，所以更难无视了。
2026/06/26 09:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.
2026/06/26 09:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
我当然知道。但我个人睡得挺安稳，因为我对自己的超大规模数据中心映射研究有底气，而且持有 $SIVE。没错，我还是拿着那一百多万股的头寸。不知道大家有没有意识到：我来这里就是分享我的想法和观点。我控制不了市场波动，也管不了你们怎么做决定，更左右不了市场对新信息整合的反应。对分析师来说，最安全的做法就是摩根士丹利/摩根大通/高盛一出报告就跟着附和，然后总结一下。而不是自己从开源情报（OSINT）映射里琢磨新想法，再等它们被验证。因为当你发现一个新角度时：每个人都在激烈争论 4-6 英寸磷化铟晶圆厂、员工数量、他们的超大规模客户是谁、产能爬坡时间线等等，就为了跟你唱反调。然后还要时刻盯着每一个 5%-20% 的价格波动。我不得不更频繁地讨论这个标的，因为它还没被充分验证，而且总是有激烈的争论。就像 2 月的 $EWY，我当时做了内存预测，还分析了氦气/液化天然气/石油。但几个月后，大家看到内存结构变得稳固（美光签了 16 份以上的长期协议），液化天然气也没把 SK 海力士的利润打下来。还有去年的 $NBIS，当时在谈分部估值/摊薄结构 vs $IREN。现在它接近历史新高，还进了 $QQQ 指数。我本人只是在等 Sivers 在 2027 年产能爬坡，并在纳斯达克上市来支持他们的并购活动。这样他们就能走 $LITE 当年的路——从 30 亿美元市值涨到 600 亿美元以上。
2026/06/25 15:46UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@CryptoBankz_65 $NBIS has anime protagonist armor and an OpenAI hedge fund guy diamond handing the stock.
2026/06/25 15:46UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@CryptoBankz_65 $NBIS 自带动漫主角光环护体，再加上有个 OpenAI 对冲基金大佬在那死拿这票不撒手。
2026/06/23 00:35UTC提及重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@JJJJJ_66666 Because I’m comparing thesis timeframes when I said $IREN was dogsht after endless dilution and a GPU pivot from Colo. I had $IREN last year and sold it for $NBIS and others. Turns out that was the correct idea, but IREN bagholders can’t admit it
2026/06/23 00:35UTC提及重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@JJJJJ_66666 因为我是在比较不同论据的时间框架，我当时说 $IREN 在无休止的稀释和从 Colo 转向 GPU 之后就是个垃圾货。我去年持有过 $IREN，然后卖掉换成了 $NBIS 和其他标的。事实证明那是对的，但 $IREN 的接盘侠们就是不肯承认。
2026/06/23 00:30UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@Starter9191 Yeah not looking much better last year either for $IREN. When everyone kept trying to trash talk $NBIS that ended up compounding another 3-4x. https://t.co/QDz5RqYoEv
2026/06/23 00:30UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@Starter9191 是啊，去年 $IREN 的状况也好不到哪儿去。当每个人都一个劲地唱衰 $NBIS 的时候，人家又涨了 3-4 倍。https://t.co/QDz5RqYoEv
2026/06/23 00:21UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd
2026/06/23 00:21UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
真好奇错过 AI 超级周期行情是什么感觉…… 光子学、存储、还有像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud，因为你忙着在那儿死扛 $IREN 那一个个永不枯竭的 60 亿美元自动取款机呢。https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd
2026/06/17 14:57UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate? https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3
2026/06/17 14:57UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
7 个月后…… $NBIS 创了历史新高。而 $IREN 的接盘侠们还在给那个 60 亿美元的 ATM 融资计划输血，股价还卡在去年 11 月的老位置。猜猜这算不算把争论给结了？https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3
2026/06/16 11:05UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@88magalhaes Lmfao actually $SPCX uses $NBIS now. Did not think of that angle. Don’t think it’s anything newly material though for Nebius, just a fun connection.
2026/06/16 11:05UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@88magalhaes 哈哈，实际上 $SPCX 现在用的是 $NBIS。之前没想到这个角度。不过也不觉得这对 Nebius 有什么新的实质性影响，就是个有趣的关联。
2026/06/15 14:02UTC看多重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.
2026/06/15 14:02UTC看多重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。但那些接盘的还不肯承认。我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。
2026/06/12 04:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.
2026/06/12 04:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
2026/06/12 02:44UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@pepemoonboy Yep, $NBIS in specific looks like the next hyperscaler! excited to see its growth
2026/06/12 02:44UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@pepemoonboy 是的，特别是 $NBIS 看起来就是下一个超大规模云服务商！很期待它的成长。
2026/06/12 02:39UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T
2026/06/12 02:39UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
哇，$NBIS、$ALAB 和 $RKLB 被纳入纳斯达克 100 了！看着 Astera、Rocketlab 和 Weebius 从当年的小公司一步步成长… 现在变成纳斯达克上最大的那些之一，挺有意思的 https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T
2026/06/11 01:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.
2026/06/11 01:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
基本就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。散户入场早，完全抢先了机构，抓住了下一波架构转型。当时 $SIVE 几乎没有美国机构持仓。而现在你看到摩根大通、富达研究部等一些活跃机构都出现在了股东名单上。去年 $NBIS 也发生了同样的事。 > 我
2026/06/09 11:52UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.
2026/06/09 11:52UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
这些公司，我随口一说哈： - $ASX - 住友电气 - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - 创意电子 (AlChip) - $TSEM - $FN - 古河电气 - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR 所以说，基本上就是在市值 100 亿到 1000 亿美元区间的 AI 相关股票。跟大盘指数或者像 $ARM、$MRVL 这种已经涨了一大截的股票比起来，它们现在的投资回报率可能更吸引人，对吧？（声明一下，我只对上面提到的 $NBIS、$TSEM、$AAOI 有投资兴趣）我经常提到很多小盘股，不过也就是为了追求超额回报。感觉这些公司好多都还有上涨空间。
2026/06/08 14:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@soulbiri1 I think only $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL are red since that mention. Maybe like 1-2 flat like $HOOD But 25 for 30 like $NBIS green, and many by triple digits is pretty solid if you do equal weighted.
2026/06/08 14:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@soulbiri1 我觉得只有 $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL 自那之后是红的。大概有 1-2 个像 $HOOD 这样是平的。但 30 个里有 25 个像 $NBIS 是绿的，而且不少涨幅双位数，如果你做等权重配置的话，这成绩挺不错的。
2026/06/07 10:39UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
2026/06/07 10:39UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
当然，第一重要的是毒性融资结构 / 流通股动态。最好的例子就是当前的新一代云服务商格局： - $IREN 基本就是垃圾，因为他们有 60 亿美元的 ATM 增发额度，几乎无限稀释，大概率每次反弹都在卖（结构性压制） - 而 $NBIS 今年至今已经涨了 153%+，靠的是最优结构（比如 $NVDA 直接投资、混搭可转债等）。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款买 GPU，背负着无尽的债务利息。这事非常微妙，但你必须关注流通股的动态。如果这家公司确实质地不错，那等现有持有人被稀释到快没了之后，或许是个做多的好时机。但如果你在意自己股权的增值，就最好离这种毒性融资结构或毒性压制（比如债务利息长期蚕食公司自由现金流）远远的。小公司里这种情况比比皆是，比如 $SLNH，市值才 2.5 亿美元，却搞了个新的 5 亿美元 ATM 增发。或者像 $BKKT，为了给高管发工资搞了没完没了的稀释。这类公司，基本上就是 KOL 们在吹的时候，你把钱转给了公司。所以这些都是红旗。很多软件股，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利数据来掩盖股权激励。所以虽然公司账面看着是赚钱的，但你的股权价值很可能因为稀释而缩水。筛选标的时，这类股权结构无穷无尽，你必须仔细看。
2026/06/03 10:43UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@EestiRadar Glad $NBIS turned out well, that drawdown after blowout earnings was pretty brutal.
2026/06/03 10:43UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@EestiRadar 很高兴 $NBIS 最后结果不错，财报大超预期后那波回撤可够狠的。
2026/06/03 10:29UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
2026/06/03 10:29UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@BKCY314 融资结构完全不同，$CRWV 被债务利息吃掉了。 $IREN 因为过量 ATM 融资，几乎没有权益增值。 $NBIS 就刚好到位，而且还有旗下子公司 Avride 加上 Clickhouse 持股的综合价值。 https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
2026/06/03 10:17UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
2026/06/03 10:17UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
有意思，看到我最有信心的 Neocloud 标的 $NBIS 越陈越香。去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 板块将成为主要趋势的论点。然后挑中了那个王者。 -> 从 $IREN 到 $CRWV，Nebius 是整个板块里表现最好的。 $84 → $260。市场验证了这个观点。 https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
2026/06/02 20:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO
2026/06/02 20:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
好吧，确实该更相信黄仁勋（Jensen）对 $MRVL 的判断，毕竟他之前对 $NBIS 就这么干过。这次他对 Marvell 可是给出了 1 万亿美元的目标价。一句话就让 Marvell 涨了 35%……https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO
2026/06/01 23:56UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@JonahK44 $NBIS is $META and $MSFT. $GOOGL has done a lot of Fluidstack deals with $CIFR to $WULF for more Colo. my guess is to plug in a lot more of their TPUS
2026/06/01 23:56UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@JonahK44 $NBIS 就是 $META 和 $MSFT。 $GOOGL 跟 $CIFR 和 $WULF 做了不少 Fluidstack 交易，都是为了扩充 Colo。我猜他们是想接入更多自家的 TPU。
2026/06/01 20:27UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Macron announces that $NBIS invests €8B to build out AI Cloud Infrastructure in France. This was my favorite comment: “What about the Water” https://t.co/nlTb37BgE3
2026/06/01 20:27UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
马克龙宣布 $NBIS 投资 80 亿欧元在法国建设 AI 云基础设施。这是我看到最搞笑的评论： "水怎么解决" https://t.co/nlTb37BgE3
2026/06/01 16:11UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.
2026/06/01 16:11UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@Anon1pvi 不太看好 $CRWV，债务利息太高了。至于 $IREN，无限 ATM 增发机制在结构上就限制了上行空间。 $NBIS 是新云领域里那个"刚刚好"的玩家。
2026/06/01 16:07UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Holy sht, plot armor confirmed with $NBIS https://t.co/1QwwKSRxSt
2026/06/01 16:07UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
卧槽，这剧情光环实锤了 $NBIS https://t.co/1QwwKSRxSt
2026/05/28 00:01UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Look who joined team $NBIS. 5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN. That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND
2026/05/28 00:01UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
看看谁加入了 $NBIS 的阵营。 5.6% 的持股比例相当大了，可能他现在也意识到，这比那个一团糟的 $IREN 要好太多了。话说回来：自从我去年做多以来，Nebius 现在涨了大约 3 倍。 Weebius 自带主角光环。https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND
2026/05/24 18:39UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
2026/05/24 18:39UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。你还是不够乐观。保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
2026/05/22 14:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.
2026/05/22 14:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@realstockfox 对，我挺确定的，$INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到 2029 年还会在…… 不需要不停买入新的/不同的美股仓位，就让你手里的那些随着时间慢慢复利就行。

在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点

NBIS 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：

$SIVE · 222 条观点 $AAOI · 124 条观点 $NVDA · 120 条观点

全部跟踪标的 →机构、内部人士与国会议员持仓动态 →

历史观点（56 条，最新在上）

2026/08/24 15:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

$NVDA, following their $20B deal... Announces Groq3 LPX now in full production. With $NBIS the first to adopt through Nebius token factory. - 3,400 tok/s in Artificial Analysis benchmarking running Gemma 4 31B, with 100k token context - 4x faster responsiveness than the nearest alternative Thing that caught my attention.. was a former press release after Nvidia's $2B investment into Nebius. That it would support their "early adoption of Nvidia's latest generation" architectures. Guess we're seeing that special treatment here.

2026/08/24 15:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

$NVDA，继他们那笔200亿美元的交易之后……宣布 Groq3 LPX 已全面投产。 $NBIS 是首个通过 Nebius 代币工厂采纳这项技术的。 - 在 Artificial Analysis 的基准测试中，运行 Gemma 4 31B，每秒3,400个token，支持10万token上下文 - 响应速度比最接近的替代品快4倍让我注意的是……英伟达向 Nebius 投资20亿美元后发布的一份新闻稿。里面提到会支持他们“早期采用英伟达最新一代”的架构。看来我们现在看到的就是这种特殊待遇了。

2026/08/18 14:15UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.

2026/08/18 14:15UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@abbysuyuyan 说实话，$AAOI 是我唯一希望它能跌回 $80 好让我能加仓的股票。激光股的需求可见度简直不可思议，一直到 2027 年都是这样…… 对像 $NBIS 这样的新云股，或者像 $SNDK 这样的存储股，情况也一样。

2026/08/12 21:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@mikealfred Bears are going back into hibernation after seeing all these AI earning reports from $NBIS to $LITE.

2026/08/12 21:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@mikealfred 空头们看到从 $NBIS 到 $LITE 这些 AI 财报后，又要冬眠去了。

2026/08/12 12:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.

2026/08/12 12:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

从去年开始，和 $NBIS 以及其他新兴云服务公司比起来，我对 $CRWV 一直都挺看空的。需求倒不是什么大问题，他们有 1000 亿+ 美元的积压订单，营收和 59% 的调整后 EBITDA 利润率看起来也很不错。但底层的融资方式真的很糟糕... Coreweave 的债务利息 (比如，二季度利息支出就达到了 6.4 亿美元)，这块吃掉了太多自由现金流 (FCF)... 作为参考，这个数字大概是 Coreweave 15.1 亿美元调整后 EBITDA 的 42%。

2026/08/12 12:23UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.

2026/08/12 12:23UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

$NBIS 的展望又一次相当炸裂。营收 $5.823 亿（同比增长 454%，环比增长 46%），其中 AI 云业务的调整后 EBITDA 利润率接近 50%。手头现金 $80.4 亿。公司重申了财务指引（2026 年营收：$3

2026/08/10 02:03UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.

2026/08/10 02:03UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

就说几个近期的事件吧： - 明天就是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA），届时你们关注的CPO玩家会发布公告/更新。这应该会对某些光模块公司形成催化剂。 - 财报周：今天有$ASTS、$RKLB（航天领域）发财报，周二有$LITE（光子学领域），周中有$NBIS（Neocloud），等等。 - Unitree的IPO申购今天开放了，预计本月上市。如果它上市表现不错，这应该会对人形机器人+机器人板块形成一个潜在的催化剂，比如$CCXI。接下来一周会很有趣。

2026/08/08 18:27UTC看空新建跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU

2026/08/08 18:27UTC看空新建跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

今天我来写一篇周末指南，教你做空 $NBIS 时怎么做尽职调查（DD）：首先，你要看看那些超大规模云服务商（hyperscaler）的财报，从中解读AI云业务的表现： > $GOOGL：财报显示AI云需求创纪录、积压订单量大增，利润率也提高了。 > $AMZN：财报显示AI云需求创纪录、积压订单量大增，利润率也提高了。 > $META：财报显示，可用产能的价格超出了预期。好了，现在来看看 Nebius： -> $NBIS：到第四季度，年化经常性收入（ARR）将增长几百个百分点，达到 70-90 亿美元。利润率也在增长，并且指引了 4GW+ 的合同电力。 -> 看到 Uber/Waymo 正在分拆，更多精力放在 Avride 上。 -> 看到 Clickhouse 每个季度都在快速增长。好了，看起来不妙！但接下来，你需要对冲吗？ -> 哇！一个 $NIKE 的品牌高管，在 $NIKE 股票过去五年跌了 75% 之后，接下来竟然去了 $LULU 拯救那个品牌？Lululemon 看起来不错。结论：做空 Nebius，做多 $LULU。

2026/07/31 19:35UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Situational Awareness / Leopold was completely right in terms of US shifting more toward inference + large energy demand. I had a similar thesis with Neoclouds like $IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, and others last year in 2025. But shifted more towards upstream bottlenecks + networking personally. It's just a little unfortunate the fund couldn't fully survive the drawdown. We did overlap in memory concentration but energy/grid from $BE, $TE, or neoclouds like $SHAZ / $IREN but I'd expect them to outperform given compute/capacity shortages.

2026/07/31 19:35UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

态势感知：Leopold 说得完全对，美国正更多地转向推理，而且能源需求巨大。我去年在 2025 年也对 Neoclouds 有类似的看法，比如 $IREN、$NBIS、$CIFR、$WULF 等。但我个人更多转向了上游瓶颈和网络。只是有点遗憾，基金没能完全挺过那次回撤。我们在内存集中度上确实有重叠，不过像 $BE、$TE 这样的能源/电网股，或者像 $SHAZ / $IREN 这样的 Neocl

2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.

2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

Citadel 刚刚真的清盘了 Situational Awareness… 然后第二天就把整个大盘拉起来了？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 还有好多其他股票。这绝对是我见过最疯狂的清盘之一。

2026/07/30 07:26UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.

2026/07/30 07:26UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

我觉得我（或者任何人）都无法准确抄底。不然，如果他们知道的话，直接玩周度期权就行了。不过，有些股票真的很难再跌了，比如 $AAOI 的年化远期营收/市值比都快接近 1 倍了。 $POET 跌得太多了，现在大概是 8 亿美元现金对 10.8 亿美元市值。总的来说，连 Leopond 都觉得现在的估值极具吸引力，所以他正在筹集更多资金来逢低买入。不过谁知道呢？但从中长期来看，根据我自己的理论，我预计一旦营收预测体现在财报中，它们就会有好的表现。我重申了 $AAOI 的营收拐点在 2027 年上半年末…… $NBIS 的营收拐点在 2026 年第四季度，依此类推，这是我自己的估计。当然，在那之前会有很多波动。

2026/07/29 23:13UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital expenditures" - Quartely capex was $41B, roughly 2/3rds were "short lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs" - Expects capex spend will be over $50 billion for next quarter - Capex Guidance at ~$175 billion and 2027 capex roughly the same. Spending plans unchanged and in line. - "Extending the estimated useful life of our data centers from 15 to 25 years" - "We will be among the first cloud providers to deploy next generation rack-scale AI infrastructure based on $AMD Helios and $NVDA Vera Rubin" - "Customer demand continues to exceed available capacity" Meta: - Capex $130-$145 billion (narrowed range), from $125B-$145B. - Meta is receiving offers at a "significant premium" to what they paid for it (compute scarcity, positive for neoclouds like $IREN / $NBIS ) - Expects significant portion of compute (like the 1 GW DC in El Paso) to develop internal models. - Meta has multiple ROI-positive uses for additional compute across its core business (internally, not Meta Compute) - "Finally, we believe that overall industry capacity is going to remain tight for the foreseeable future" - "The industry has under-built historically for the wave of AI adoption, making existing capacity, including our own, extremely valuable" - Susan Li TLDR: - $MSFT and $GOOGL largely sustaining AI capex buildout while remaining FCF positive or through operating incomes. - $META flags available compute materially below demand at least through 2027. And $MSFT also flags compute demand far exceeds supply. - All three hyperscaler capex largely in line with Google hiking capex figures. AI selloff seems extremely overblown now, hyperscalers continuing capex in line (with Microsoft being FCF positive) or even hiked with $GOOGL. Compute scarcity is visible throughout every single hyperscaler ER.

2026/07/29 23:13UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

简单总结一下 $META 和 $MSFT 财报电话会的几点收获：微软： - 预计到2027年自由现金流（FCF）转正，尽管资本支出（capex）在增加（这对于AI基础设施建设是天大的利好，因为它的资金来源是运营收入） - “自由现金流为19

2026/07/24 20:22UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

There you have it, $GOOGL Waymo to explore split with $UBER per FT. My view last year was that Uber partnering with Waymo was a bad choice… since Uber would just serve as a distribution funnel that Google needed as they scale up. And that $NBIS Avride, other neutral players, or vertical integration would be the optimal path forward. Now their own partner Waymo looks to be the strongest disruptor to Uber.

2026/07/24 20:22UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

这下好了，$GOOGL 旗下的 Waymo 准备跟 $UBER 探索分拆，消息来自《金融时报》。我去年就觉得 Uber 和 Waymo 合作是个臭棋……因为随着谷歌（Waymo 母公司）规模扩大，Uber 最终只会变成谷歌需要的那个分销渠道。当时我认为，$NBIS Avride、其他中立玩家，或者垂直整合才是最优解。结果现在，Waymo 这个 Uber 自己的合作伙伴，反而成了对 Uber 威胁最大的颠覆者。

2026/07/21 08:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?

2026/07/21 08:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

铠侠系的存储股今天猛涨了17.18%。三星也涨了6.15%。 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 这些光网络股都在展现复苏迹象，全部涨了4%以上。从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的 Neoclouds 概念股，盘前全部涨了4%以上。从 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL，这些股都涨了4%以上。难道克拉默效应要对整个AI概念股都起作用了吗？

2026/07/20 21:38UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for sentiment having Nvidia be a large shareholder of the Neocloud leader.

2026/07/20 21:38UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

如果你好奇为什么 $NBIS 盘后涨了。 $NVDA 披露，它通过 SEC 备案文件拥有 Nebius 9.3% 的实益所有权。其实这不算什么太新的消息，因为这可以追溯到英伟达之前持有的 119 万股股份，以及一份 20 亿美元的预付认股权证（对应约 2100 万股）。但对于市场情绪来说，英伟达能成为 Neocloud 领导者的大股东，这是个好消息。

2026/07/20 17:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.

2026/07/20 17:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

$IREN 涨了 19.69%，因为它将年度经常性收入 (ARR) 目标从新的 AI 云计算合同上调至 40 亿美元以上。现在它的客户群包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 涨了 10.45%，这得益于它签署了一份为期 15 年、价值 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议。 $CIFR 涨了 16.76% $CLSK 涨了 13.7% $WYFI 涨了 9.18% 不过 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在磨蹭呢。但看起来确实，新兴云服务/托管服务商 (Colo players) 们正在强劲复苏，这得益于 Kimi 算力短缺的消息和新合同等新的催化剂。

2026/07/17 17:51UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT

2026/07/17 17:51UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

$META 据说正在谈判，想把算力租给 Anthropic，这笔交易估计值 100 亿美元。看来他们是看到 $SPCX 那笔 450 亿美元的算力租赁有多赚钱了。不过这正好也验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 还有其他这类新云业务模式的价值，毕竟连超大规模云服务商都在“抄作业”了。来源：纽约时报 https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT

2026/07/14 14:57UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.

2026/07/14 14:57UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

$NBIS 和 Reflection AI 签署了一份10亿多美元的算力协议，获得到2029年的GB300算力。 Reflection 之前也和 $SPCX 签署了一份数十亿美元的协议。至少可以说很有意思的是，今天 Nebius 竟然因为这消息跌了5%。另外…这个交易对手方能达成这笔交易，有点让我想起 OpenAI，就是他们可能还没像 $META 或 $MSFT 那样，有足够的资金来真正执行这些长期协议。但从长期来看，这总体上是积极的进展，毕竟客户多元化一直是 Nebius 的核心优势之一。

2026/07/08 20:18UTC看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.

2026/07/08 20:18UTC看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

这么说吧：散户觉得跌个 30-60% 就是“飞刀”，套牢的人永远翻不了身。然后他们看到那些波浪线技术分析，还有人把有价值的咽喉要道公司跟那些梗股相提并论，结果就恐慌性抛售了。我把这看作是长期持有以下资产的机会： - 下一个超大规模数据中心供应商，$NBIS，预计第四季度年化收入达到 70-90 亿美元 - 拥有 40% 的磷化铟供应链份额，$AXTI - 下一个光通信技术变革的领导者，$SIVE，拥有连续波DFB激光器 - 美国人形机器人领域的领导者，$CCXI，未来万亿级主题的核心诸如此类……而且估值更便宜。虽然我可能会通过降低保证金或对冲我的投资组合来做些调整，但如果投资逻辑没变，我个人在股票下跌时并不会恐慌。非投资建议，显然这也取决于大家的投资时间框架：因为对那些靠投资支付房租或学费的人来说，一次暴跌可能会改变他们的人生。（这也是为什么我个人认为其他人应该做自己的尽职调查，并根据自己的风险承受能力选择长期持有的股票）但我个人的目标是在下一代超级周期到来之前，尽可能多地布局。我觉得机构也是这么想的，这也是为什么在整个过程中会有很多诱导性波动，以最大化他们的仓位。如果投资逻辑最终被证实是正确的，那么估值长期来看也会体现出来。

2026/07/07 14:03UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.

2026/07/07 14:03UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

就随便说一下我的看法：如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 这些股票，还有其他一些，都跟着一起崩盘…… 这些今天目前为止跌幅都在 -4% 到 -10% 以上。那这可能就和个股基本面没什么关系了。像瀑布式保证金清算这类原因导致的无差别抛售，如果标的公司基本面在改善的话，通常会带来非常不错的机会。

2026/07/06 21:25UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@platochi Yeah, $NBIS also had a painful like 5 months of chopping after they projected something crazy like $7B ARR by Q4 2026 earnings. Makes you doubt sometimes

2026/07/06 21:25UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@platochi 是啊，$NBIS 之前也经历了痛苦的差不多 5 个月震荡，当时他们预测到 2026 年第四季度财报能实现 70 亿美元的 ARR，太疯狂了。有时候会让人怀疑人生。

2026/07/06 15:54UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco Yep $NBIS early day drawdowns were insane. There were short sellers bear posting Nebius and neocloud models left and right. All of those seem to have vanished together lol

2026/07/06 15:54UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@rioferdy838 @ak_dfranco 是啊，$NBIS 早期回撤简直离谱。当时做空者对 Nebius 和 neocloud 模型各种唱空。现在看来那些人都消失了，哈哈。

2026/07/04 07:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

TIL floating DC and ocean compute exists? Apparently it’s free cooling + optimal for places in tight geography… It’s going to be wild taking a cruise ship, and passing by a bunch of $NBIS or Samsung floating AI DCs one day. If this ever becomes a thing like orbital compute? https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT

2026/07/04 07:18UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

今天才知道有浮动数据中心和海上计算这东西？据说它能免费冷却，对地理位置紧张的地方来说特别理想… 想象一下，有一天你坐游轮，旁边漂过一堆 $NBIS 或三星的浮动 AI 数据中心，那场面得多野啊。如果这玩意儿真能像轨道计算一样普及，那可就厉害了？https://t.co/Ki2RqNc2xT

2026/07/03 05:58UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

SemiAnalysis on $META “overcapacity” and market reactions with $NBIS and others: “We believe Meta’s datacenter and compute will accelerate”. “Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high”. Recent global crash, especially in the photonics sector was stupid… Off misleading narratives of Meta dropping out of AI race to sell excess compute… When in fact things are likely to accelerate from Meta catching up to GPT5.5. I’m personally expecting a sharp V recovery, especially with the names that crashed 50%+ from this narrative.

2026/07/03 05:58UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

SemiAnalysis 关于 $META “产能过剩” 和市场对 $NBIS 及其他公司的反应： “我们相信 Meta 的数据中心和计算能力将加速发展。” “2027 年的资本支出将高得惊人。” 最近全球市场的暴跌，尤其是在光子学领域，真是太蠢了……完全是基于 Meta 将退出 AI 竞赛、出售过剩算力的误导性叙述…… 而事实上，随着 Meta 追赶 GPT5.5，一切很可能都会加速。我个人预计会有一个 V 形强劲反弹，特别是那些因为这个说法而暴跌了 50% 以上的公司。

2026/07/02 19:12UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.

2026/07/02 19:12UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

每次看到半导体市场因为彭博社的报道措辞再次暴跌，都觉得挺有意思的… 瑞银分析师评论 $META 财报说：“这不是什么新消息。” 但不管怎么说： $AEHR 下跌 -18.3% $AAOI 下跌 -17.13% $SIVEF 下跌 -15.4% $SNDK 下跌 -14.8% $TER 下跌 -13.8% $GLW 下跌 -11.4% $MRVL 下跌 -11.2% $LITE 下跌 -10.2% $NBIS 下跌 -7.8% 看到这个，我都想起彭博社今年早些时候那篇关于 AMD/Nvidia 全球出口管制的误导性报道，当时也搞得半导体股票大跌，简直要犯 PTSD 了。顺便提一下：如果 Meta 真有过剩产能并且能削减资本支出，他们就不会随便买下价值超过 480 亿美元的 Neocoud 合同了… 市场有时候就是这么傻。

2026/07/02 06:58UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18% On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop. So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr

2026/07/02 06:58UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@DogUrineCapital 看到 $MRVL 跌了 11%，$AMAT 跌了 11%，到 $NBIS 跌了 18%，真是让人有点恶心。往好的一面看，很多高贝塔/小盘股，像 $AAOI，提前预警了这次下跌。所以它们表现得还不错 https://t.co/OEyJYiQQr

2026/07/01 13:42UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”. This is an “if” they have excess capacity. And it looks like the opposite right now: Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta back in March. Since Meta was using too much for internal projects. Meta was immediately constrained so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48B+ contracts with Neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS. Meta is selling excess capacity if there’s any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the Neoclouds. If anything, I’m expecting their guided capex to go up as they build out more independent capacity.

2026/07/01 13:42UTC看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

关于 $META “削减资本支出”是因为他们“超建了”的谣言很多。这有个前提，那就是他们真的有过剩产能。但现在看起来，情况恰恰相反：像 $GOOGL 这样的超大规模云厂商，计算资源紧张到三月份就不得不削减给 Meta 的分配。因为 Meta 用了太多资源来做内部项目。 Meta 立即受到了限制，所以看起来他们被迫立马和像 $CRWV、$NBIS 这样的“新云”公司签下了超过 480 亿美元的巨额合同。 Meta 如果真有闲置产能的话，那肯定是正在出售，尤其是考虑到他们和这些新云公司签的大合同都是照付不议的。要我说的话，我反而预计他们指导的资本支出会增加，因为他们要建设更多自己的独立产能。

2026/07/01 13:14UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms. Costco: sells $5 chickens. Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”. Stock Market: sells off Costco.

2026/07/01 13:14UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

好的，这是推文的翻译： Basically pre-market right now with the Neoclouds like $NBIS in simpler terms. Costco: sells $5 chickens. Walmart: mass buys those rotisserie chickens and sells excess as “Walmart Chickens”. Stock Market: sells off Costco. 用简单的话来说，现在 Neoclouds 比如 $NBIS 的情况，基本就跟开盘前一样。好市多：卖 5 美元一只的鸡。沃尔玛：大量采购这些烤鸡，然后把多余的作为“沃尔玛鸡”出售。股市：抛售好市多。

2026/07/01 12:56UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@Deebeeng10 The Neoclouds like $NBIS are probably the ones powering this offering lol.

2026/07/01 12:56UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@Deebeeng10 像 $NBIS 这样的 Neoclouds 公司，很可能就是这项服务的幕后推手吧，哈哈。

2026/06/30 07:00UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@EndicottInvests Good times, wasn’t too long ago back at 3K followers! Discussion on $NBIS was fun back when there was a lot of debate on Neoclouds and it was still really early. Thanks for the support, fun to see your account grow as well

2026/06/30 07:00UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@EndicottInvests 美好时光，不久前粉丝才三千！聊 $NBIS 的时候也很有趣，那时候大家对 Neoclouds 还有很多争议，而且它还处于非常早期。谢谢支持，很高兴看到你的账号也成长起来了

2026/06/26 10:06UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

You've been supporting me from the very start, thank you so much! I still remember your first translation post helped me get popular. Before I was just able to wait for my thesis to play out like $NBIS even in the drops, since I didn't have so many followers. Now everyone's monitoring day-to-day price volatility and commenting about it so it's harder to ignore.

2026/06/26 10:06UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

你从一开始就在支持我，真的非常感谢！我还记得是你第一次翻译我的帖子，帮我开始火起来的。之前我没那么多关注者的时候，只能等着自己的判断兑现，就像 $NBIS 这样，就算跌了也扛着。现在每个人都在盯着每天的涨跌波动，还跑来评论，所以更难无视了。

2026/06/26 09:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.

2026/06/26 09:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

我当然知道。但我个人睡得挺安稳，因为我对自己的超大规模数据中心映射研究有底气，而且持有 $SIVE。没错，我还是拿着那一百多万股的头寸。不知道大家有没有意识到：我来这里就是分享我的想法和观点。我控制不了市场波动，也管不了你们怎么做决定，更左右不了市场对新信息整合的反应。对分析师来说，最安全的做法就是摩根士丹利/摩根大通/高盛一出报告就跟着附和，然后总结一下。而不是自己从开源情报（OSINT）映射里琢磨新想法，再等它们被验证。因为当你发现一个新角度时：每个人都在激烈争论 4-6 英寸磷化铟晶圆厂、员工数量、他们的超大规模客户是谁、产能爬坡时间线等等，就为了跟你唱反调。然后还要时刻盯着每一个 5%-20% 的价格波动。我不得不更频繁地讨论这个标的，因为它还没被充分验证，而且总是有激烈的争论。就像 2 月的 $EWY，我当时做了内存预测，还分析了氦气/液化天然气/石油。但几个月后，大家看到内存结构变得稳固（美光签了 16 份以上的长期协议），液化天然气也没把 SK 海力士的利润打下来。还有去年的 $NBIS，当时在谈分部估值/摊薄结构 vs $IREN。现在它接近历史新高，还进了 $QQQ 指数。我本人只是在等 Sivers 在 2027 年产能爬坡，并在纳斯达克上市来支持他们的并购活动。这样他们就能走 $LITE 当年的路——从 30 亿美元市值涨到 600 亿美元以上。

2026/06/25 15:46UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@CryptoBankz_65 $NBIS has anime protagonist armor and an OpenAI hedge fund guy diamond handing the stock.

2026/06/25 15:46UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@CryptoBankz_65 $NBIS 自带动漫主角光环护体，再加上有个 OpenAI 对冲基金大佬在那死拿这票不撒手。

2026/06/23 00:35UTC提及重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@JJJJJ_66666 Because I’m comparing thesis timeframes when I said $IREN was dogsht after endless dilution and a GPU pivot from Colo. I had $IREN last year and sold it for $NBIS and others. Turns out that was the correct idea, but IREN bagholders can’t admit it

2026/06/23 00:35UTC提及重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@JJJJJ_66666 因为我是在比较不同论据的时间框架，我当时说 $IREN 在无休止的稀释和从 Colo 转向 GPU 之后就是个垃圾货。我去年持有过 $IREN，然后卖掉换成了 $NBIS 和其他标的。事实证明那是对的，但 $IREN 的接盘侠们就是不肯承认。

2026/06/23 00:30UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@Starter9191 Yeah not looking much better last year either for $IREN. When everyone kept trying to trash talk $NBIS that ended up compounding another 3-4x. https://t.co/QDz5RqYoEv

2026/06/23 00:30UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@Starter9191 是啊，去年 $IREN 的状况也好不到哪儿去。当每个人都一个劲地唱衰 $NBIS 的时候，人家又涨了 3-4 倍。https://t.co/QDz5RqYoEv

2026/06/23 00:21UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

I wonder how it feels to miss out on the AI supercycle run… With photonics, memory, and even Neoclouds like $NBIS. Because you’re busy bagholding into the endless $6,000,000,000 active ATMs with $IREN. https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd

2026/06/23 00:21UTC看多信心分：3/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

真好奇错过 AI 超级周期行情是什么感觉…… 光子学、存储、还有像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud，因为你忙着在那儿死扛 $IREN 那一个个永不枯竭的 60 亿美元自动取款机呢。https://t.co/AFEr84Dezd

2026/06/17 14:57UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

And 7 months later... $NBIS is all time highs. While $IREN bagholders are still funding the $6,000,000,000 ATM and stuck at the same price back in November. Guess this settles the debate? https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3

2026/06/17 14:57UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

7 个月后…… $NBIS 创了历史新高。而 $IREN 的接盘侠们还在给那个 60 亿美元的 ATM 融资计划输血，股价还卡在去年 11 月的老位置。猜猜这算不算把争论给结了？https://t.co/wYvbhw4xK3

2026/06/16 11:05UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@88magalhaes Lmfao actually $SPCX uses $NBIS now. Did not think of that angle. Don’t think it’s anything newly material though for Nebius, just a fun connection.

2026/06/16 11:05UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@88magalhaes 哈哈，实际上 $SPCX 现在用的是 $NBIS。之前没想到这个角度。不过也不觉得这对 Nebius 有什么新的实质性影响，就是个有趣的关联。

2026/06/15 14:02UTC看多重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.

2026/06/15 14:02UTC看多重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。但那些接盘的还不肯承认。我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。

2026/06/12 04:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.

2026/06/12 04:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。

2026/06/12 02:44UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@pepemoonboy Yep, $NBIS in specific looks like the next hyperscaler! excited to see its growth

2026/06/12 02:44UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@pepemoonboy 是的，特别是 $NBIS 看起来就是下一个超大规模云服务商！很期待它的成长。

2026/06/12 02:39UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T

2026/06/12 02:39UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

哇，$NBIS、$ALAB 和 $RKLB 被纳入纳斯达克 100 了！看着 Astera、Rocketlab 和 Weebius 从当年的小公司一步步成长… 现在变成纳斯达克上最大的那些之一，挺有意思的 https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T

2026/06/11 01:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.

2026/06/11 01:38UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

基本就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。散户入场早，完全抢先了机构，抓住了下一波架构转型。当时 $SIVE 几乎没有美国机构持仓。而现在你看到摩根大通、富达研究部等一些活跃机构都出现在了股东名单上。去年 $NBIS 也发生了同样的事。 > 我

2026/06/09 11:52UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.

2026/06/09 11:52UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

这些公司，我随口一说哈： - $ASX - 住友电气 - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - 创意电子 (AlChip) - $TSEM - $FN - 古河电气 - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR 所以说，基本上就是在市值 100 亿到 1000 亿美元区间的 AI 相关股票。跟大盘指数或者像 $ARM、$MRVL 这种已经涨了一大截的股票比起来，它们现在的投资回报率可能更吸引人，对吧？（声明一下，我只对上面提到的 $NBIS、$TSEM、$AAOI 有投资兴趣）我经常提到很多小盘股，不过也就是为了追求超额回报。感觉这些公司好多都还有上涨空间。

2026/06/08 14:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@soulbiri1 I think only $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL are red since that mention. Maybe like 1-2 flat like $HOOD But 25 for 30 like $NBIS green, and many by triple digits is pretty solid if you do equal weighted.

2026/06/08 14:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@soulbiri1 我觉得只有 $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL 自那之后是红的。大概有 1-2 个像 $HOOD 这样是平的。但 30 个里有 25 个像 $NBIS 是绿的，而且不少涨幅双位数，如果你做等权重配置的话，这成绩挺不错的。

2026/06/07 10:39UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.

2026/06/07 10:39UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

当然，第一重要的是毒性融资结构 / 流通股动态。最好的例子就是当前的新一代云服务商格局： - $IREN 基本就是垃圾，因为他们有 60 亿美元的 ATM 增发额度，几乎无限稀释，大概率每次反弹都在卖（结构性压制） - 而 $NBIS 今年至今已经涨了 153%+，靠的是最优结构（比如 $NVDA 直接投资、混搭可转债等）。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款买 GPU，背负着无尽的债务利息。这事非常微妙，但你必须关注流通股的动态。如果这家公司确实质地不错，那等现有持有人被稀释到快没了之后，或许是个做多的好时机。但如果你在意自己股权的增值，就最好离这种毒性融资结构或毒性压制（比如债务利息长期蚕食公司自由现金流）远远的。小公司里这种情况比比皆是，比如 $SLNH，市值才 2.5 亿美元，却搞了个新的 5 亿美元 ATM 增发。或者像 $BKKT，为了给高管发工资搞了没完没了的稀释。这类公司，基本上就是 KOL 们在吹的时候，你把钱转给了公司。所以这些都是红旗。很多软件股，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利数据来掩盖股权激励。所以虽然公司账面看着是赚钱的，但你的股权价值很可能因为稀释而缩水。筛选标的时，这类股权结构无穷无尽，你必须仔细看。

2026/06/03 10:43UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@EestiRadar Glad $NBIS turned out well, that drawdown after blowout earnings was pretty brutal.

2026/06/03 10:43UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@EestiRadar 很高兴 $NBIS 最后结果不错，财报大超预期后那波回撤可够狠的。

2026/06/03 10:29UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV

2026/06/03 10:29UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@BKCY314 融资结构完全不同，$CRWV 被债务利息吃掉了。 $IREN 因为过量 ATM 融资，几乎没有权益增值。 $NBIS 就刚好到位，而且还有旗下子公司 Avride 加上 Clickhouse 持股的综合价值。 https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV

2026/06/03 10:17UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW

2026/06/03 10:17UTC看多信心分：9/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

有意思，看到我最有信心的 Neocloud 标的 $NBIS 越陈越香。去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 板块将成为主要趋势的论点。然后挑中了那个王者。 -> 从 $IREN 到 $CRWV，Nebius 是整个板块里表现最好的。 $84 → $260。市场验证了这个观点。 https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW

2026/06/02 20:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Okay yeah should have trusted Jensen more on $MRVL after what he did with $NBIS. He actually gave a $1T price target this time with Marvell. Marvell up 35% with one remark… https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO

2026/06/02 20:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

好吧，确实该更相信黄仁勋（Jensen）对 $MRVL 的判断，毕竟他之前对 $NBIS 就这么干过。这次他对 Marvell 可是给出了 1 万亿美元的目标价。一句话就让 Marvell 涨了 35%……https://t.co/Evv6QF8oMO

2026/06/01 23:56UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@JonahK44 $NBIS is $META and $MSFT. $GOOGL has done a lot of Fluidstack deals with $CIFR to $WULF for more Colo. my guess is to plug in a lot more of their TPUS

2026/06/01 23:56UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@JonahK44 $NBIS 就是 $META 和 $MSFT。 $GOOGL 跟 $CIFR 和 $WULF 做了不少 Fluidstack 交易，都是为了扩充 Colo。我猜他们是想接入更多自家的 TPU。

2026/06/01 20:27UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Macron announces that $NBIS invests €8B to build out AI Cloud Infrastructure in France. This was my favorite comment: “What about the Water” https://t.co/nlTb37BgE3

2026/06/01 20:27UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

马克龙宣布 $NBIS 投资 80 亿欧元在法国建设 AI 云基础设施。这是我看到最搞笑的评论： "水怎么解决" https://t.co/nlTb37BgE3

2026/06/01 16:11UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.

2026/06/01 16:11UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@Anon1pvi 不太看好 $CRWV，债务利息太高了。至于 $IREN，无限 ATM 增发机制在结构上就限制了上行空间。 $NBIS 是新云领域里那个"刚刚好"的玩家。

2026/06/01 16:07UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Holy sht, plot armor confirmed with $NBIS https://t.co/1QwwKSRxSt

2026/06/01 16:07UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

卧槽，这剧情光环实锤了 $NBIS https://t.co/1QwwKSRxSt

2026/05/28 00:01UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Look who joined team $NBIS. 5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN. That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year. Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND

2026/05/28 00:01UTC看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

看看谁加入了 $NBIS 的阵营。 5.6% 的持股比例相当大了，可能他现在也意识到，这比那个一团糟的 $IREN 要好太多了。话说回来：自从我去年做多以来，Nebius 现在涨了大约 3 倍。 Weebius 自带主角光环。https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND

2026/05/24 18:39UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.

2026/05/24 18:39UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。你还是不够乐观。保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。

2026/05/22 14:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.

2026/05/22 14:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@realstockfox 对，我挺确定的，$INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到 2029 年还会在…… 不需要不停买入新的/不同的美股仓位，就让你手里的那些随着时间慢慢复利就行。

NBISNebius

历史观点（56 条，最新在上）

NBISNebius

历史观点（56 条，最新在上）