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- English · 原文$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths with Aeva. Apple likely using Sivers also reiterated from the newer webpage: “Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring. They just can’t namedrop partners due to confidentiality, but consumer sensing is probably the biggest tell. Physical AI and mass consumer production with Apple would be very material to revenue.中文 · 翻译$SIVE + Aeva 大概率是从今天的新 PR 里推断出来的，以及 $SIVE + Apple。 关于 Sivers 激光器为机器人 / 具身 AI 提供动力。 → Sivers 激光器通过 LG Innotek 为波士顿动力 Atlas 提供动力，用于机器人领域 → Nvidia Hyperion 生态系统中搭载 Sivers 激光器，用于具身 AI。 这些都是与 Aeva 可能展开的路径。 Apple 也很有可能使用 Sivers，这在较新的网页上得到了重申： “用于可穿戴设备的光学传感模块”——来自生物识别与健康监测。 他们只是出于保密原因不能直接点名合作伙伴，但消费级传感大概是最明显的信号。 具身 AI 加上与 Apple 的大规模消费级生产，对营收来说会是非常实质性的推动。
- English · 原文$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the possibility of xfab moving to HVM. On their silicon photonics foundry w/ photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC for TFLN on SOI. Regardless I’m bullish too on XFAB and curious where it heads.中文 · 翻译$XFAB 被 Bernstein 上调至跑赢大盘，目标价从 €5 升至 €12.8。 好吧，我原谅你 Bernstein，在铠侠和英特尔这事上。 我还是觉得这不过是跟着汽车复苏、SiC/功率半导体爬坡做的被动目标价调整。 而且可能远远低估了潜力……如果市场开始计价 XFAB 进入 HVM（高量产）的可能性的话。 毕竟他们在硅光电子代工这块，跟 photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC 合作搞 TFLN-on-SOI。 不管怎样，我也看好 XFAB，好奇它会走向何方。
- English · 原文@Joey_TheFarmer My thesis hasn't changed with FOCI, they'll be part of the bottleneck with FAU + passive components in $NVDA $TSM ecosystem as that COUPE scales up.中文 · 翻译@Joey_TheFarmer 我对 FOCI 的看法没有改变，随着 COUPE 规模扩大，他们将成为 $NVDA $TSM 生态系统中 FAU + 被动元件瓶颈的一部分。
- English · 原文@eldan_0123 @CreatorNim Don’t think so. $JBL + $SIVE was known from OFC conference in person. But it took an official PR for markets to know. If there any release over the more higher confidence mapping to $NVDA cpo ecosystem, I’d expect it to rerate a lot more中文 · 翻译@eldan_0123 @CreatorNim 不觉得。$JBL + $SIVE 是从 OFC 现场会议里得知的。 但市场要等官方 PR 出来才知道。 如果后续有发布跟 $NVDA CPO 生态更确定的相关消息，我预计它会重新定价不少。
- English · 原文We're in a massive EML bottleneck right now and CW lasers are getting bottlenecked now too. To my knowledge, $COHR is buying EMLs off $LITE because they can't make enough. $LITE is majority allocated to EML, so they can't make enough CW lasers. So they're buying CW lasers off competitors from their ER transcript, (probably Sumitomo, Furukawa and others), which likely feeds into $NVDA contracts. Then $AMD and your hyperscalers need capacity too but we're already in a shortage. Any capacity that comes online would likely be bought, since looks like we're in a shortage for next few years (lumentum already sold out into 2028). Not quite the same as your sk hynix/samsung/micron memory dynamic but there's still a massive moat with EML with probably only single digit amounts of players able to do this.中文 · 翻译现在 EML 产能严重堵塞，CW 激光器也开始卡脖子了。 据我所知，$COHR 正从 $LITE 手里买 EML，因为他们自己产量不够。 $LITE 大部分产线都给了 EML，所以也没余力生产足够多的 CW 激光器。 于是他们（从财报电话会里透露）开始向竞争对手买 CW 激光器——可能是住友、古河等——而这些货源大概率最终流进 $NVDA 的订单里。 然后 $AMD 和你那些超大规模客户也急需产能，但我们早就供不应求了。 现在但凡有新产能上线，基本都会被抢光，因为看起来未来几年都会持续短缺（Lumentum 都已经卖到了 2028 年）。 这和 SK 海力士/三星/美光的存储芯片情况不太一样，但 EML 的护城河依然很深，能做的玩家可能一只手就数得过来。
- English · 原文I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.中文 · 翻译不太理解为什么很多人对我的重仓多头 $AAOI 极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，一路涨到 $170 的时候都有人看空。（对，我就是觉得每个空头都错了，咱们看看最后谁对。） 他们有稀缺的激光产能，这正是 $AMD 和其他超大规模数据中心在找的。 而整个行业都被 $NVDA 卡着瓶颈。 加上他们有美国本土的收发器供应链，用于大规模生产 800g/1.6T（管理层表示——这是全美最大的）。 同时需求远超供给，而组装环节却外包到了亚洲。 然后他们给出的指引是，2027 年上半年到下半年过渡期间，月营收 4.71 亿美元。这相当于年化经常性收入 56 亿美元，而市值才 135 亿美元…… 而且到了 2028 年更晚的时候，还有大量重要的爆发量会出现。 至于波动，可能时不时会有 6 亿美元的活跃 ATM 增发被拿出来用。 再加上时不时冒出来的随机看空帖子和宏观因素，导致更大波动（比如某分析师报告因为假的 CPO 延迟传闻看空 $LITE，结果把板块内其他股票也带下来了）。 另外我们离那个时间点还有一年，所以时间线确实还有点早。 自打 $NBIS 之后，我就没见过这么快的营收爬坡。
- English · 原文Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to chip for 1.6T+ - HVDC deployment on track, 800VDC incremental volume 2027, with higher penetration in 2028. What a stupid CPO related selloff recently.中文 · 翻译瑞穗研究：CPO 或 800V 直流电没有延迟。 由于 $NVDA 需求爬坡，上调了光学引擎预估。 - CPO 的下一阶段是长期方向，他们认为 InP DFB 激光器仍然是重点（你好啊 $SIVE）。VSCEL 和 microLED 在 1.6T+ 的机架内短距离 + 芯片到芯片场景中仍然"未经证实"。 - HVDC 部署按计划进行，800V 直流电增量产出在 2027 年，2028 年渗透率更高。 最近这波跟 CPO 有关的抛售真是蠢到家了。
- English · 原文Still holding Foci/Nextronics. There was a CPO bear post from an analyst that said there would be delays (which $NVDA denied), which caused CPO related stocks to crash. Personally think Foci will end up a bottleneck for $TSM COUPE / $NVDA and Nextronics to be a beneficiary of optical components relative to MC in $NVDA supply chains. We'll see how this plays out.中文 · 翻译还在拿着 Foci/Nextronics。之前有个分析师发了篇关于 CPO 的看空帖，说项目会有延迟（$NVDA 否认了这点），结果 CPO 相关股票就崩了。 我个人觉得，Foci 最终会成为 $TSM COUPE / $NVDA 的一个瓶颈，而 Nextronics 则会受益于 $NVDA 供应链里光学组件相比 MC 的地位。 看后面怎么走吧。
- English · 原文I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.中文 · 翻译我早就说过 $MU 看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。现在市值都到 1.23 万亿了。 从 2025 年那会儿就开始更多讨论三星电子 / SK 海力士了。 今年 1 月就更集中布局存储这个方向，比如 $SNDK 和其他几只。 我很开心美光 + 存储这条线的预测，行情正在应验！ 希望 $EWY 的多头仓位，大家也赚得开心，涨了很多。
- English · 原文Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.中文 · 翻译反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
- English · 原文New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.中文 · 翻译最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。 并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息） 明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。 也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。 我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。 这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
- English · 原文$NVDA and $GOOGL lead 800V DC ahead of schedule. "Ahead of schedule", pulled up to Q3 2026 with small volume shipments starting . - Delta Electronics (2308), $VRT - Song Chuan Precision (7788) - Schneider Electric, Eaton, Siemens. All flagged as beneficiaries. "Market sources indicate that Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform and Google’s next-generation AI data centers will be the first to adopt the technology" Source: Commercial Times The power semi trade should be happy to hear this.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 和 $GOOGL 提前引领 800V 直流电。 "提前于原计划"，已提前至 2026 年 Q3，小批量出货即将开始。 - 台达电子 (2308)，$VRT - 松川精密 (7788) - 施耐德电气、伊顿、西门子。 全都被列为受益方。 "市场消息指出，Nvidia 的 Vera Rubin 平台和 Google 的下一代 AI 数据中心将率先采用这项技术" 来源：工商时报 做功率半导体的应该听了会开心。
- English · 原文If you haven’t noticed too with my other investment themes with 800V DC and CPO recently. It’s investing in $NVDA, America’s national champion in AI, and securing their supply chains. Many things feel technologically difficult with yields to substrate supply. People can always bear post laser capacity or export control bottlenecks and tell people to short Nvidia’s supply chains due to difficulties. But by investing in the critical companies to give them more capex spend for FAU capacity / yields. Or funding upstream red phosphorus/InP substrate capacity or SiC/GaN capacity. It builds up Western supply chains to make what’s technologically challenging, possible. Also I believe in Jensen.中文 · 翻译如果你还没注意到我最近其他投资主题，比如 800V 直流快充和 CPO 的布局。 其实就是投资 $NVDA——美国在 AI 领域的国家冠军——并保障其供应链的稳定。 从良率到衬底供应，很多环节在技术上都很难。 总有人能拿后道激光产能或出口管制的瓶颈来做空，告诉别人“英伟达的供应链太难了，做空吧”。 但如果你去投资那些关键公司，给它们更多资本开支来提升 FAU 产能和良率。 或者去资助上游的红磷/InP 衬底产能、SiC/GaN 产能。 就能建立起西方的供应链，让那些技术上很困难的事情变得可行。 而且，我相信黄仁勋。
- English · 原文@ratna555 I see the Lightmatter/Ayar type companies, probably going higher than $5B if they IPO. Since they're both part of $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem, heavy backers like NVidia/Intel/AMD/Google, and popular theme.中文 · 翻译@ratna555 我看好那些 Lightmatter/Ayar 类型的公司，如果它们 IPO 的话，估值很可能超过 50 亿美元。 毕竟它们都属于 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统的一部分，背后有像 NVIDIA/Intel/AMD/Google 这样的重量级投资方，又是当下热门的题材。
- English · 原文Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).中文 · 翻译为什么我一直被问到这些问题！！！ $XFAB 正在打造一个硅光子学代工厂，作为 $TSEM 和 $GFS 的替代品。而且有欧洲支持它，再加上 $NVDA 的评估。 这需要时间……比如到 2026 年 10 月，开发应该能完成。 然后 2027 年产量会逐步扩大，到 2028 年进入（大规模量产），毕竟他们从 2023 年就开始搞了。 现在所有人都觉得它就是个低迷的汽车供应商。好在欧洲公司嘛，大家习惯看 TTM 营收，而不是盯着未来增长。 所以它就这么莫名其妙地领导了欧盟打造一个 $TSEM 式的硅光子学代工厂及供应链，市值大约 €11 亿？ 日月光（ASE）的研发总监和其他人都把它列为未来的 CPO 路线。 我可能在很多事情上都太早了，但当然大部分的风险回报就来自一点信念，赌它能商业化。 不然大家也可以直接选 Tower 这条更稳妥的路（我之前也写过一篇关于它的分析，也挺喜欢的）。
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译说白了就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户冲得太早了，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 上几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在，你会看到摩根大通、富达研究这些活跃机构出现在股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生过同样的事。 > 我当时指出机构累积持仓接近<30%，还说过他们想要更多筹码。 > 机构把流通盘大部分都吃掉了 > 当时一堆负面文章，现在全是利好，股价还创新高。 两年前是 $RKLB > 我 $16 的时候就做多了，但机构分析师一直在给历史最低的目标价，叫散户卖，尽管它的火箭复用率那么高。 > 散户卖了，机构持仓却堆上去了 > 现在又创新高 我看好 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有人暗示你在 $HIMX 旁边、以 25 亿美元估值就卖掉它。 所以如果你看到卖方的负面报告，或者一波莫名其妙的坏消息，那可能是个好信号——他们需要流动性。 最近一些小型对冲基金已经急到甚至可能在 X 上用机器人农场来喊散户卖股票了，哈哈……我最近刚揭露过这事。 不管怎样，这也是为什么我花大量时间研究具体个股，这样人们才能在噪声中建立自己的信念。 不幸的是，这就是现代流动性周期/转移（美国散户 → 机构）运作的一部分，是生活的常态。 它们从来就不是为散户的利益服务的。
- English · 原文@oops1GSP Bro everything has technical obstacles. I can bear post about HBM4 yields or glass substrate yields and basically everything too. $NVDA is a $5T company, they’re not $ASTS. I’m sure they know timelines and difficulties, so projections should be accurate.中文 · 翻译@oops1GSP 兄弟，所有东西都有技术难题。我也可以写一篇关于 HBM4 良率或玻璃基板良率的帖子，基本啥都能聊。 $NVDA 是家 5 万亿市值的公司，可不是 $ASTS。 我确信他们清楚时间线和难点，所以预测应该挺准的。
- English · 原文@lumingxi2025 No, $NVDA denied reports about 800v and CPO delays. I think I’ll trust Nvidia… since they probably have an idea on their own timelines…中文 · 翻译@lumingxi2025 不，$NVDA 否认了关于 800v 和 CPO 延迟的报道。 我觉得我会相信 NVIDIA……毕竟他们对自己时间表应该心里有数……
- English · 原文Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back. Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex. Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen. Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT中文 · 翻译摩根士丹利：$NVDA 否认了关于 800V DC 被推迟的报道。 SemiAnalysis 最近的报告与我们在 Computex 上的核查相反。 兄弟，这绝对是我见过的最蠢的 CPO/800V 抛售了。 自从他们宣称 $MU 拿不到任何英伟达 HBM4 份额后，市场就开始抛售 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT
- English · 原文If you want a TLDR of today: > be $NVDA, $5T company. Force shift to 800V DC and CPO > analyst: I don’t think u can do it in time! > market: “I don’t trust Nvidia, time to sell everything” > Nvidia and Lumentum executives after: Bullish on CPO, timelines accelerating. ???中文 · 翻译如果你想要今天的一个 TLDR： > 你是 $NVDA，一家市值 $5T 的公司。强行转向 800V 直流电和 CPO > 分析师：我觉得你来不及搞定！ > 市场：“我不相信英伟达，是时候清仓了” > 英伟达和 Lumentum 的高管随后：看好 CPO，时间表在加速。 ???
- English · 原文@xnoahwang Imagine being $NVDA, the most powerful company in the world, with high visibility of their own timelines, saying there’s no delays. Then external analysts go and say every architecture Nvidia is doing is gonna be delayed by awhile. Yeah… I’m going long with Nvidia here.中文 · 翻译@xnoahwang 想象一下，你是个 $NVDA，全世界最牛的公司，对自己的时间表看得清清楚楚，然后说没有延迟。 结果外部分析师跑出来说，Nvidia 做的每个架构都要推迟一阵子。 行吧…… 我这边还是做多 Nvidia。
- English · 原文$LITE Management Speech from Mizuho Technology at today’s conference. The company expects to start shipping CPO scale up optical products in the second half of 2027. With formal ramp up in 2028. No delays, as this aligns with previous timelines shared. So today, we also got confirmation from $NVDA SVP no delays on CPO scale out timelines H2 2026, and they’re beginning mass production. And $LITE management also stated no delays on CPO scale up timeline. The leading companies in Nvidia and Lumentum probably know their own timelines the better than incorrect analyst reports telling them no. And both are incredibly bullish on TAM and opportunities.中文 · 翻译今天瑞穗科技在会议上听了 $LITE 管理层的发言。 公司预计 2027 年下半年开始出货 CPO 规模化光学产品。 2028 年正式上量。 没有延期，这与之前分享的时间表一致。 所以今天，我们也得到了 $NVDA 高级副总裁的确认， CPO 规模化时间表没有延期，仍为 2026 年下半年，而且他们已经开始量产。 $LITE 管理层也表示，CPO 规模化时间表没有延期。 英伟达和 Lumentum 这两家领头羊，大概率比那些瞎说"不可能"的分析师报告更清楚自己的时间表。 而且两家都对总可用市场和机会非常看好。
- English · 原文$NVDA Networking Senior Vice President refuting recent analyst reports on delays: - “ the most exciting stuff is co-packaged optics.” - There is no delay in H2 CPO product delivery schedule. - CPO switch will enter mass production and begin ramping up customer deliveries as planned in the second half of 2026 This was a media article, original interview source credit should have been credited to Tae Kim / Computex. Something fun to note too was this quote “Gilad was VERY enthusiastic about the CPO ramp from Nvidia.” Both near term and long term. Yeah… I’m extremely bullish on CPO alongside Nvidia.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 网络部门高级副总裁驳斥近期分析师关于延迟的报告： - “最激动人心的东西是共封装光学。” - H2 CPO 产品交付时间表没有延迟。 - CPO 交换机将按计划在 2026 年下半年进入量产并开始向客户交付。 这是一篇媒体报道，原始采访来源应该归功于 Tae Kim / Computex。 还有个有趣的细节，这句引语是：“Gilad 对 Nvidia 的 CPO 上量表现得极为兴奋。” 无论是短期还是长期。 是的……我极度看多 Nvidia 的 CPO。
- English · 原文I’m just sharing what’s imminent with architectural shifts pushed by $NVDA. Retail managed to completely frontrun institutions on multiple names, but institutions need liquidity to enter. It’s just interesting how every major industry player confirms the same timelines, then a questionable analyst firm that said $MU had no HBM4 share could write a hit piece then be completely incorrect again.中文 · 翻译我只是在分享 $NVDA 推动架构变革下即将发生的事。 零售交易者成功地在好几个标的上完全抢跑了机构，但机构需要流动性才能进场。 有趣的是，每个行业主要玩家都确认了相同的时间线，然后一家曾声称 $MU 没有 HBM4 份额的可疑分析机构，就能写一篇黑稿，结果再次完全错误。
- English · 原文@NathanJoooo This was in response to that erroneous article. I would trust Foxconn/Lumentum/Nvidia industry projections over an analyst firm that messed up $MU HBM4 so badly and said “no” to all their timelines together中文 · 翻译@NathanJoooo 这是针对那篇错误报道的回应。 我更相信富士康/Lumentum/英伟达的行业预测，而不是一家把 $MU HBM4 搞得一塌糊涂、并对所有时间线都说了“不”的调研机构。
- English · 原文CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff) Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after) I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy. Appreciate the buying opportunity though.中文 · 翻译CPO 向外扩展时间表比预期提前： > 鸿海：预估单位出货量上修，光交换器提前出货给 $NVDA 今天 $LITE 瑞穗科技大会上的 CPO 向上扩展时间表： “公司预计在 2027 年下半年开始出货向上扩展的光学产品，2028 年正式放量” $NVDA 网络部门 SVP：“我们今年下半年就要开始上量 CPO”。没有任何延期的迹象。 我选择相信行业预测。他们都一致强调：向外扩展的 CPO 下半年起加速；向上扩展的 CPO 从 2027 下半年开始（主要增长在 2028）。 而不是相信动机可疑的分析机构——那家说 $MU 在 HBM4 Rubin 上没有份额（引发了一轮抛售）。 结果美光没过多久就宣布要进入量产（之后不久就翻了好几倍）。 我觉得那些因为这份错误报告而做多临时桥接架构的人，怕是不会太开心。 不过还是要感谢这个买入机会。
- English · 原文@QGrowthCap I mean $NVDA CEO did say memory would be a multi year shortage. With the way things are going with the nand/dram hikes, all your hyperscalers r gonna be in debt lol中文 · 翻译@QGrowthCap 我是说 $NVDA 的CEO确实说过，内存会短缺好几年。 就现在nand/dram涨价这架势来看，你那几家超大规模数据中心客户全都得负债累累哈哈。
- English · 原文Many work against the interest of retail investors. Especially as JP Morgan / US institutions are trying to buy up the float. You have a company funded with CHIPS Act, in major hyperscaler supply chains from $NVDA to others, powering Ayar for CPO, $JBL for pluggables. And now the reference laser for $GFS. With closest ramp with $AEVA / $POET likely coming next. And following that likely US NASDAQ Listing. Sivers is one of the most compelling photonics companies, and pretty sure all the deals established that already.中文 · 翻译很多动作都对散户投资者不利。 尤其是当摩根大通 / 美国机构正试图买断流通股的时候。 你有一家靠《芯片法案》资金支持的公司，身处从 $NVDA 到其他巨头的主要超大规模数据中心供应链中，为 Ayar 提供 CPO 方案，为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块。现在又成了 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商。 接下来最接近放量的很可能是 $AEVA / $POET。再之后，大概率就会在美国纳斯达克上市。 Sivers 是光子学领域最引人注目的公司之一，我相当确定已有的所有交易都已经证明了这一点。
- English · 原文@LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.中文 · 翻译@LightLogix 我的意思是…… > $SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器 > $SIVE 提供 1.6T LRO 激光方案，配合 $JBL 以及众多可插拔厂商 > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > 很可能是 $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial 搭配 $NVDA NVLink > 大概率 $SIVE 也会进入 $AMD 的 CPO 生态系统 这是个非常吸引人的做多逻辑。
- English · 原文@ark_btc I compiled 32+ different names related to $NVDA 800V DC mentioned by followers. And posted them in a simple format for people to do research on. Not my recommendations lol.中文 · 翻译@ark_btc 我把粉丝们提到的 $NVDA 800V DC 相关的 32 个以上不同名字都整理出来了。然后用一个简单格式发出来，方便大家自己去研究。 不是我的推荐哈，哈哈。
- English · 原文On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx中文 · 翻译关键点：$NVDA 的CEO还特别提到了硅光子（光网络）与存储结合。 并表示英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对于硅光子供应链来说，从$SIVE（如今已是英伟达上游生态系统的一部分）到$SOI，是一个多么看好的信号啊。 https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
- English · 原文Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO中文 · 翻译哦你看……$NVDA 的 CEO 警告说，由于 AI 基础设施的规模需求激增，内存短缺预计会持续很多年。 明天还会有更多公告。 $MU 和 $EWY（三星 / SK 海力士）的营业利润预期，现在看起来也没那么夸张了吧？https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
- English · 原文Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.中文 · 翻译当然，第一重要的是毒性融资结构 / 流通股动态。 最好的例子就是当前的新一代云服务商格局： - $IREN 基本就是垃圾，因为他们有 60 亿美元的 ATM 增发额度，几乎无限稀释，大概率每次反弹都在卖（结构性压制） - 而 $NBIS 今年至今已经涨了 153%+，靠的是最优结构（比如 $NVDA 直接投资、混搭可转债等）。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款买 GPU，背负着无尽的债务利息。 这事非常微妙，但你必须关注流通股的动态。 如果这家公司确实质地不错，那等现有持有人被稀释到快没了之后，或许是个做多的好时机。 但如果你在意自己股权的增值，就最好离这种毒性融资结构或毒性压制（比如债务利息长期蚕食公司自由现金流）远远的。 小公司里这种情况比比皆是，比如 $SLNH，市值才 2.5 亿美元，却搞了个新的 5 亿美元 ATM 增发。 或者像 $BKKT，为了给高管发工资搞了没完没了的稀释。 这类公司，基本上就是 KOL 们在吹的时候，你把钱转给了公司。所以这些都是红旗。 很多软件股，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利数据来掩盖股权激励。所以虽然公司账面看着是赚钱的，但你的股权价值很可能因为稀释而缩水。 筛选标的时，这类股权结构无穷无尽，你必须仔细看。
- English · 原文@Jornka329996 > posts an idea about a 2027 silicon photonics foundry evaluted by $NOK and $NVDA last week > sells on macro drop few days after > complain中文 · 翻译@Jornka329996 > 上周发了个关于2027年硅光子晶圆厂的想法，还得到了 $NOK 和 $NVDA 的评估 > 过了几天因为宏观下跌就卖掉了 > 然后开始抱怨
- English · 原文hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too positive for expontentially compounding revenue growth since hyperscalers were Nvidia's original main revenue stream (even indirect via Neoclouds). But $NVDA's kinda stalling everyone elses buildout by bottlenecking their programs eg. EML/laser capacity agreements years out too. And took stakes in $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC etc. making them adopt to $NVDA standards or just owning a large %. So even if they're delaying other programs + their biggest growth vector kinda falls off one day, like how things are shifting already shifting to ASICs for inference. They'll still probably be fine given ownership stakes + will serve companies/countries outside of hyperscaler cash cows (just less revenue)+ made so much before then. But that's probably why p/e keeps going down despite revenues going up, since idk if markets thinks that growth will last forever. Or could be totally wrong and they just keep leapfrogging generation by generation + AI pie keeps growing with Jensen's 4T 2030 capex number.中文 · 翻译嗯，长期来看，我更看好你提到的所有上游瓶颈环节，而不是 $NVDA，因为那些东西的估值重估空间最大（英伟达已经是全球最大公司了）。 我相当确信，超大规模云的 ASIC 最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求，就像 $GOOGL 的 TPU、$AMZN 的 Trainium 项目那样。这对指数级复利的营收增长可不太有利，因为超大规模云本来就是英伟达最初的主要收入来源（甚至通过 Neocloud 这种间接渠道也是）。 不过 $NVDA 也在卡别人脖子，拖慢大家的建设进度，比如把 EML/激光产能协议签到了好几年后。而且它还入股了 $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC 等公司，要么让它们采用 $NVDA 的标准，要么直接拿大头股份。 所以，哪怕它拖慢了其他项目 + 自己最大的增长引擎某天会熄火（就像现在推理已经在往 ASIC 转移了）， 考虑到它手里那一堆股权 + 还能继续服务超大规模现金牛之外的公司和国家（虽然收入会少一些）+ 之前早就赚得盆满钵满，它大概率还是能过得不错。 不过，这大概也是为什么它收入一直在涨、市盈率却持续走低的原因——大概市场也不确定这种增长能不能永远持续。 当然，也可能我完全错了，它们就是一代代持续领先 + AI 蛋糕持续做大，配合 Jensen 说的 2030 年 4 万亿 capex 目标。
- English · 原文Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)中文 · 翻译市场回调的时候还挺有意思的。 从 $NVDA 跌 4.87% 到 $MU 跌 7.03%。高贝塔票像 $PL 直接跌了 22.02%。 挺好笑的，媒体总在那拼命解释，比如： "博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录暴跌" 博通预测需求旺盛到 2028 年，纯粹是编故事。AI 基建这边除了资本支出在增加，什么都没变。 真正实质性的变化是加息概率上升了。 但每年总有那么几次，在大涨新高之后冒出这类随机回调。 我个人不会去押注美联储决策的概率，继续拿着现有公司指引的仓位（比如 $AAOI 2027 上半年 4.71 亿美元）。
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar. Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.中文 · 翻译2027年上半年，所有1.6T可插拔的玩家，比如$JBL。 可能Innolight/Eoptolink还有其他可插拔的公司也会加进来。我们很快就会知道，因为$SIVE提到他们还有些没公开的可插拔合作伙伴在谈。 2027年下半年，$NVDA的NVLink CPO生态系统里的玩家（比如Ayar）将全面铺开CPO规模化应用。 市场通常提前大约8个月定价。
- English · 原文@Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.中文 · 翻译@Jornka329996 你是不是上头了，我这周发过 $XFAB 的内容啊。 他们跟 $NVDA 和 $NOK 合作的硅光子平台，量产要到 2027/2028 下半年。 我觉得这是一个风险大幅释放的上市前长线标的，看起来就像下一个 $TSEM。还有 SiC/GaN 带来的上涨空间。 就是需要时间。
- English · 原文$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 是我从$28就开始持续加仓的标的之一。 就是随便洗澡时瞎想……感觉如果他们执行到位，翻倍甚至翻三倍几乎是迟早的事？ 毕竟800G/1.6T光模块的需求实在太大了…… 而这公司瞄准的是美国最大产能，还搞了极端的垂直整合。 我觉得有一点值得记住——主权数据中心 / Tier 2 AI 数据中心也会增加800G的需求，因为超大规模云厂商正在往1.6T升级。 所以800G的需求实际上会持续增长…… 然后还有分析师传言说$AAOI在和$AMD / $NVDA洽谈。考虑到所有人都在抢产能排期到2028年，这其实挺符合预期的。 英伟达总是先动手，然后像EML那样卡住其他人的瓶颈，所以如果这次有另一家超大规模云厂商吸取了教训，也不奇怪吧？ 另外，似乎所有人都在按规模量产后ASP下降来做模型。但如果明年上半年真的像预期那样成为主要瓶颈…… 那可能就会出现意料之外的涨价 + 利润率全面扩张，$AAOI、$LITE 以及其他标的都还没把这点计入模型。
- English · 原文This timeline keeps getting more and more unreal… $NVDA Jensen Huang to meet Faker (League of Legends) I did talk with Jensen few years back about PUBG and GPU shortages for mining. And he was enthusiastic about ideas for cross-platform gaming + getting enough allocation to gamers. Fast forward to now, feels like Nvidia kinda ignored gamers… for AI, which is understandable. So this is a nice symbolic message for a return to Nvidia’s roots.中文 · 翻译这条时间线真是越来越离谱了…… $NVDA 黄仁勋要和 Faker（《英雄联盟》选手）见面 几年前我还跟黄仁勋聊过《绝地求生》和挖矿导致的 GPU 短缺问题。 当时他对跨平台游戏的想法特别来劲，还说要给玩家多分配些货。 现在再看，感觉 Nvidia 有点把玩家晾一边了……都去搞 AI，当然也能理解。 所以这次会面算是个不错的象征性信号，表示要回归 Nvidia 的老本行了。
- English · 原文I’ve repeated this for every single stock, but insider selling means literally nothing. A managing director of wireless transferring ownership over to US investors doesn’t change any fundamentals about the business. CEO of $NVDA and $MU sell shares all the time but nobody bats an eye for a reason中文 · 翻译这一条我对每支股票都反复强调过：内部人减持根本说明不了任何问题。 一位无线业务董事总经理把股份转给美国投资者，不会改变这家公司的基本面哪怕一丁点。 $NVDA 和 $MU 的 CEO 也一直在卖股票，但大家从来不眨一下眼，这背后是有原因的。
- English · 原文@_king142 $SIVE was probably the most recent visible laser chokepoint that’s still being rerated since seem to be in every $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem partner + merchant/asic cpo supply chains. Maybe passive optical components supply chains in CPO next.中文 · 翻译@_king142 $SIVE 很可能是最近一个比较显眼的激光瓶颈环节，而且目前仍在被重新估价——因为它似乎在每一条 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统的合作伙伴里都有出现，同时也在商用/ASIC CPO 供应链里。 也许下一个就是 CPO 里的无源光学组件供应链了。
- English · 原文Just some random notes about $AVGO earnings transcript - Revenue target reiterated ($100B+ 2027, pretty sure markets wanted that to be raised this earning, hence the drop) Remember $NVDA Jensen comments about $MRVL $1T company around networking/connectivity/interconnects? - “So as the TPUs continue to accelerate, there’ll be pressure overall on margins. But the connectivity side, the AI networking side of the business has very rich margins” “Demand for … networking is simply insatiable” Also very positive read through as well for the $LITE and the other players. But for TPU margins it goes down at scale, which is understandable. - “they are placing orders in fairly huge demand, which basically gives us a lot more visibility.. runs all the way to 2028 right now” positive read through on overall AI demand since it’s 2026 now… and orders are out in 2028 - The initial order for 1 gigawatt, which includes XPUs and our networking has been received and will start Delivery in the second half of 2027. for our other two customers, we expect shipments to begin late 2026 and accelerate into 2027. $META custom AI program h2 2027 timelines - “Our revenue, our content per gigawatt will increase. you start putting a lot, you start putting embedding CPU cores into the same XPUs and making those chips basically multi die with lots of hvm.” Just for the GW modelers. - “For OpenAI we have delivered silicon and we are on track for production late 2026” OpenAI custom program timeline - “If you ask about 27 or 28 that will continue to grow. We expect in fact 28 to be a substantial growth from what we are forecasting in 27.” More about the demand ramp, go brrr - “Google, that we expect a diversity of sources from them” Mediatek (2454) primary beneficary, maybe $MRVL. Already expected though Google doesn’t sole source so they don’t get bottlenecked. There’s quite a lot of AI demand visibility way until 2028, which is bullish on the AI sector as a whole. Regardless, Broadcom ends the week +0% lol. TLDR: Strongly bullish AI demand, especially networking. Stocks don’t move in a straight line up, but demand curves 2026-> 2027 -> 2028.中文 · 翻译随手记几条 $AVGO 财报电话会议的零散笔记 - 营收目标重申（2027 年 1000 亿美元以上，市场明显是希望这次财报能上调的，所以股价跌了） 还记得 $NVDA 黄仁勋说过，$MRVL 会是一家围绕网络/连接/互联的 1 万亿美元公司吗？ - “随着 TPU 继续加速，整体利润率会有压力。 但连接这一块，AI 网络业务，利润率非常丰厚。” “对……网络的需求简直是无法满足。” 对 $LITE 和其他玩家也是非常正面的连锁反应。不过 TPU 的利润率随着规模扩大而下降，这可以理解。 - “他们下的订单量相当庞大，这基本上给了我们更多的能见度……现在排单一直排到 2028 年。” 考虑到现在是 2026 年，而订单已经排到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 需求是个正面信号。 - 首个 1 吉瓦的订单——包含 XPU 和我们的网络——已经收到，将在 2027 年下半年开始交付。另外两家客户，我们预计出货从 2026 年底开始，并在 2027 年加速。 $META 定制 AI 项目的时间线是 2027 年下半年。 - “我们的收入，每吉瓦的内容会增加。当你开始大量把 CPU 内核嵌入到同样的 XPU 里，让这些芯片基本上变成带大量 HVM 的多裸片结构。” 这是给那些喜欢算吉瓦模型的人看的。 - “对于 OpenAI，我们已经交付了芯片，并将在 2026 年底按期量产。” OpenAI 定制项目时间线。 - “如果你问 27 年或 28 年，那会持续增长。我们实际上预计 28 年相比 27 年的预测会有大幅增长。” 更多关于需求加速的信息，冲冲冲。 - “对于 Google，我们预计他们会有多元化的来源。” 联发科 (2454) 是主要受益方，可能还有 $MRVL。不过这个预期已经在股价里了——Google 不会只依赖单一来源，以免被卡脖子。 AI 需求的能见度一直延伸到 2028 年，这对整个 AI 板块是看多的。不管怎样，博通这周收盘涨跌持平，哈哈。 太长不看版：强烈看多 AI 需求，尤其是网络部分。股票不会直线向上，但需求曲线从 2026 年→2027 年→2028 年一直往上走。
- English · 原文The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it. -> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On -> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."中文 · 翻译纳斯达克与欧盟上市的核心区别： $POET：24 亿美元市值 → 封装 Sivers 激光器 → 有一份 5000 万美元的预生产合同（含权证） > $XFAB：17 亿美元市值 → 碳化硅/氮化镓/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受欧盟芯片法案、美国芯片法案 PMT 支持 → 市净率低于重置成本 → $NVDA、$NOK 直接评估其量产前的硅光子代工厂，2027/2028 年产能爬坡 → $XFAB 作为欧洲光子供应链规模化量产的主导代工厂，旗下有 IMEC/CEA-Leti、Ligentec、Smart Photonics、PHIX Photonics、Luceda Photonics 以及欧洲各大光子厂商 → 主要客户包括 $NVTS、$POWI、Lite-On → 美国商务部认定："美国唯一一家量产级碳化硅代工厂"
- English · 原文@WEB3_furture Great article! I actually didn't expect $NVDA to partner and take a stake in $MRVL this year. But I expected Marvell to be a compelling idea anyway from their upcoming ASIC/connectivity revenue opportunites.中文 · 翻译@WEB3_furture 写得好！我其实没想到今年 $NVDA 会和 $MRVL 合作并入股。 不过我本来就预期 Marvell 会是个有吸引力的标的，出于他们即将到来的 ASIC/连接业务收入机会。
- English · 原文@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.中文 · 翻译@siflower 那是 $NVDA 本身。我说的是指 ASIC/商业 NVLink CPO 生态系统里的合作伙伴。 $SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
- English · 原文its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.中文 · 翻译供应链已经确认了。我之前就知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资方，所以我觉得他们应该是想在 NVLink 生态这类方向上寻求战略合作。 $AMD 也投了 Ayar，那 $AMD 找 $GFS 做 CPO 这事儿，再加上 Ayar 这边的关系，基本上把 $SIVE 串起来就很容易推理了。 联发科和 $INTC 原来也是 Ayar 的投资方，联发科还在做谷歌的 ASIC。 所以按这个逻辑推下去，接下来可能很快就会有 $SIVE 进入 $GOOGL 供应链的更多消息。
- English · 原文@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.中文 · 翻译@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong 预期 Celestial 和 Lightmatter 会尝试多源供应。 但可能第一代产品，我猜大多是独家或主供，用 $SIVE 来服务 $NVDA 的 CPO NVlink 生态系统。 英伟达自己也跟 $LITE 和 $COHR 有合作项目。
- English · 原文$NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers = laser supplier to entire NVLink CPO ecosystem. People were doubting Sivers connections to Nvidia, but Ayar joining is clearest tie of $SIVE to $NVDA.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 的 CPO 生态系 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天刚加入） $SIVE 百分百确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 有高置信度是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 全都用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是它们的参考激光。 Sivers = 整个 NVLink CPO 生态系的激光供应商。 之前有人质疑 Sivers 跟 Nvidia 的关系，但 Ayar 加入就最清楚地说明了 $SIVE 和 $NVDA 之间的关联。
- English · 原文GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.中文 · 翻译猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
- English · 原文Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today. Making a certain photonics company: The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem. With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains. Can anyone guess the name?中文 · 翻译哇……今天释放了一条极具变革性的新消息。 让某家光子学公司成为了： $NVDA NVLink 融合 CPO 生态系统中有效的上游激光瓶颈。 它们的激光器现在已经进入英伟达的光学基础设施供应链。 有人能猜出名字吗？
- English · 原文@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 我知道！$SIVE 成为 $NVDA nvlink 融合生态系统的激光供应商，这真是个重磅消息。 Marvell 几个月前才加入，看看他们之后的市值涨成什么样了。 我今天晚点会详细聊聊这个！
- English · 原文@sdinakar7 I mean a few hundred billion dollar company ran 35% just because of a comment rather than fundamentals. So short term a bit overextended? He did say $1T though so that’s a 4x if you have the patience and believe in Jensenz中文 · 翻译@sdinakar7 我是说，一家几千亿美元的公司就因为一句评论涨了 35%，而不是因为基本面。 所以短期来看有点过度上涨了吧？不过他确实说了 $1T，所以如果你有耐心并且相信 Jensen 的话，那就是 4 倍。
- English · 原文Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets. CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints. Did I miss something? Or did markets miss something?中文 · 翻译说实话，$XFAB 的低调劲儿真挺像早期的 $TSEM。 市值连 20 亿都不到。 你基本找不到第二家像这样的公司——$NVDA 和 $NOK 都在积极帮你站台，验证你那还没商用的硅光子晶圆厂（photonixFAB）…… 同时还拿了《芯片法案》/政府补贴来补贴资本支出。 同时还在牵头搞欧洲的光子供应链建设。 感觉光凭这一点就足以撑起估值了……但你还能白捡它的功率半导体 SiC/GaN 业务，以及所有资产。 明天《芯片法案》2.0 就要出来了，而 $XFAB 被列在了光子学蓝图上。 是我漏掉了什么吗？ 还是市场漏掉了什么？
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文The most consequential event of an entire company’s history. Got released today with a photonics player. Making them the functional standard laser for CPO, Pluggables, and SiPH. For companies like $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMD, to $MRVL using the foundry. Does anyone know the name?中文 · 翻译这可能是整个公司历史上最关键的事件。 今天，一家光子学公司发布了它。 让它成为 CPO、可插拔模块和硅光子的功能性标准激光器。 对于像 $NVDA、$AVGO、$AMD，到 $MRVL 这类使用代工的公司来说。 有人知道名字吗？
- English · 原文@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.中文 · 翻译@wangxindian @StormDirac 我感觉大家还没意识到 $GFS 这条新闻的分量。 它可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更根本性地具有突破性。 因为所有经过 GFS 硅光子的公司，像是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA，默认的参考设计里都嵌着 $SIVE。
- English · 原文$NVDA Jensen Huang: “ $MRVL the next $1T company ladies and gentlemen “. Marvell is currently trading at $191B. I have positions in Marvell… but how much faith do we have in Jensen for the 5x? https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D中文 · 翻译$NVDA 黄仁勋： "各位先生女士，$MRVL 是下一家市值突破 1 万亿美元的公司。" Marvell 当前市值约 1910 亿美元。 我持有 Marvell 的头寸……但我们对黄仁勋这个 5 倍预测的信心有多少呢？ https://t.co/II4DTZ5Z9D
- English · 原文Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…中文 · 翻译感谢路透社和彭博社今天对 $XFAB 做了更中立的报道。 虽然如果能更聚焦于所说的结构性逻辑会更好…… 大约 800 伏直流电功率半导体 $NVDA 敞口 + 同时 $NVDA / $NOK 在光电子领域的评估还在进行中。 还有《芯片法案》下的半导体自主权是近期催化剂。 而不是围绕新信息整合带来的波动。 我花很多时间翻监管文件，就是为了找出市场忽略的那些有意思的东西，你懂的……
- English · 原文Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.中文 · 翻译Bro media… $XFAB 怎么就成 meme 股了？ 这次可别再在 $RPI 上犯同样的错误好吗？ 它们可是因为太关键，直接从欧盟拿到了 CHIPS ACT 资金。 而且 $NVDA / $NOK 正在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们交易价才低到大约 1.28 倍市净率。 这让我想起了 $SOI，市净率低但高增长垂直领域正脱离传统业务板块的拖累。 $XFAB 可是被明确写在下周 CHIPS ACT 2 的蓝皮书里……而那蓝皮书主要聚焦光子学。 主收入增长引擎在于功率半导体，因为 $NVDA 在推 800 伏直流电。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 和大家都最近起飞了。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它们在功率半导体里是个不太知名的代工厂……但美国商务部 2 年前就指出，它们是美国唯一高产能的 SiC 代工厂。 我恰好指出了这些关联。 别因为你搞不懂，就给人家扣个 "meme 股" 的帽子，说价格脱离基本面。
- English · 原文@MalteAnkan20 $XFAB is more tethered to power semis growth. With silicon photonics upside optionality depending on how $NVDA / $NOK evaluations go中文 · 翻译@MalteAnkan20 $XFAB 跟功率半导体的增长绑定得更紧。 硅光子这块的上行期权，取决于 $NVDA / $NOK 的评估进展。
- English · 原文$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.中文 · 翻译$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）在市值 $12.8 亿的情况下，是一个值得关注的多头思路，我已经建仓。 因为今天 EU CHIPS 法案 2 出炉，对欧洲光子学玩家是个催化剂。 > 800 VDC 功率半导体业务，通过 $NVDA 传导到 $NVTS + $POWI > 硅光子 / CPO 业务，$NVDA 正在评估其大规模量产潜力（光收发器/交换机） > 是美国唯一一家大规模量产 SiC 的代工厂。 > 也是关键 MEMS 代工厂之一 > 市净率约 1.29 倍，差不多是我当时做多 $SOI 时的水平。受传统业务拖累，估值偏低 > 我个人估算 2028 年前瞻市盈率约 6.5-8.5 倍 > 有政府背书： - EU CHIPS 法案，1.28 亿欧元 - 美国 CHIPS 法案，5000 万美元 PMT（商务部）。 后续可能还有更多（这本身就说明它对西方供应链至关重要）。 所以到某个时间点，算上所有补贴，它们的资本开支基本就是政府买单了。 EU CHIPS 法案 2 这周就要公布，我猜 $XFAB 大概率会被纳入，因为它们之前就在名单里，而且这个方案专门针对光子学。 ~$13 亿的市值，如果它能像 Soitec 那样来个反转（低市净率、极高增长板块、汽车传统业务拖累），我觉得很有吸引力。 至于和 $NVDA 在硅光子方面的合作，项目名称是“photonixFAB”。 市场很可能忽略了 XFab 主导的这层硅光子合作（就像我当时做多 $TSEM 时一样），只是换了个名字存在。 在功率半导体方面，XFAB 就是 SiC 的代名词，和 $NVTS 也是关联的。在 PCN-22181 文件中，$POWI 明确把 XFAB 列为它的代工厂。 考虑到它兼具功率半导体和光子学两大增长点、低市净率、有政府兜底（当然，你自己研究，我只是分享个人看法） 我个人觉得挺有吸引力的。
- English · 原文There’s one very compelling name someone called out. That I ended up taking positions in for power semi exposure. Heavily tied to $NVDA but not directly mentioned like $NVTS. Can anyone guess?中文 · 翻译有人提了个特别有意思的标的。 我后来也建仓了，拿来布局功率半导体方向。 跟 $NVDA 关系很深，但又不像 $NVTS 那样被直接点名的。 有人能猜出来吗？
- English · 原文And now… $MU finally hits a $1 Trillion marketcap. I did say this looks like the next $NVDA given how memory demand looks structural with AI. This stock probably made a lot of millionaires going from $80 to $887. https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c中文 · 翻译现在……$MU 终于站上了 1 万亿美元市值。 我之前就说过，考虑到 AI 带来的内存需求是结构性的，这看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。 这只股票从 $80 涨到 $887，估计造了不少百万富翁。https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c
- English · 原文When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries. I'm not sure people are fully aware yet. $SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others. Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dynamics / $NVDA self-driving architectural standards. Then you have $SIVE -> Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL, and many others for CPO/1.6T. Those go to GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell -> hyperscalers. Then there's a ton more... Like their US Gov CHIPS Act work that are secretive. Normally with stuff like $POET, it's like "hey" you have 1 customer with a $50m purchase order, we know where that's going. Not some Swedish company with a smaller valuation, going into everywhere from Space, Robotics, AI, consumer segments...中文 · 翻译在做供应链梳理的时候…$SIVE 在很多前沿产业里都处于绝对关键的位置。 我感觉大家还没完全意识到这一点。 $SIVE → $AAPL、$NOK、$RTX（美国国防承包商）、$YSS（金穹）。还不包括爱立信和其他。 然后还有 $SIVE → $AEVA → Boston Dynamics / $NVDA 自动驾驶架构标准。 接着是 $SIVE → Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL，还有很多其他做 CPO/1.6T 的公司。 这些又通到 GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell → 超大规模云厂商。 还有更多…比如他们跟美国政府《芯片法案》相关的保密项目。 通常像 $POET 这种，你会说"嘿"，它有一个客户下了 $5000 万的采购订单，我们知道钱会流向哪里。 但一家瑞典公司，估值更小，却遍布太空、机器人、AI、消费电子等各个领域。
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。
- English · 原文@Fletche33881557 Nope, $NVDA said $3-4T annual spend. Not value. https://t.co/sKg5gA2RZO中文 · 翻译@Fletche33881557 不，$NVDA 说的是每年 3-4 万亿的支出。不是价值。https://t.co/sKg5gA2RZO
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文All right chat, crowdsourcing your #1 highest conviction (10x only) stock long for the Power Semi trade. Especially given $NVDA pushing shift to 800 VDC. Stuff like $NVTS or $WOLF, but high-beta, 10x potential only. Anywhere around the world. What's your pick? https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC中文 · 翻译好了大伙儿，来集思广益一下——你心目中 Power Semi 板块里最有信心（只要 10 倍）的做多标的。 特别是考虑到 $NVDA 在推动转向 800 VDC。 像是 $NVTS 或 $WOLF 这种，但要高 Beta、只求 10 倍潜力。全球范围都行。 你选哪个？https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC
- English · 原文@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company. They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC. Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.中文 · 翻译@_juicebox99_ 我不觉得 FOCI 能成为市值超过 500 亿美元的公司。 他们专注的就是单一赛道，比如为 $TSM / $NVDA 提供光学元件和 FAU，然后规模化生产。所以这很可能带来与市值相关的结构性重估。 这和美国的 TAM 扩张到千亿美元级别的公司模式，不太一样。