POETPOET

历史观点（48 条，最新在上）

1. 2026/08/24 11:00UTC提及信心分：1/10跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.

   2026/08/24 11:00UTC提及信心分：1/10跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   最近很多人对那个 6 亿美元的 ATM 计划有各种各样的误解。我依然看好 $AAOI，而且我持有大量仓位（这也是我更关注的原因）。 我一直以来的立场是，我不喜欢过度使用 ATM / 稀释股权来融资。之前在 $IREN 和 $POET 的事情上我也说过。 对我自己持有的仓位，比如 AOI，我也会保持一致的看法。 不过，我仍然超配 AOI 的原因，而不是其他（比如 Poet）： 是因为 AOI 确实产能受限，而且需求可见度很高。 在时机方面： - AOI 本应该等到 1.6T 资格认证完成（预计未来几周） - 可以使用其他结构，比如高于市场价的可转债。 但他们却在股价从 220 美元跌到 130 美元的时候做了这件事，而且很可能每次他们想要动用这笔资金时，都会带来短期的结构性抛压。 我不需要支持每一个商业决策，才能继续做多。
2. 2026/08/21 12:46UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   $POET is supplying Lumilens, which is another top-2 hyperscaler supplier (with billions in customer agreements). Lite-On is another major player. I'm just saying they got likely designed out $MRVL Celestial since Marvell has their own packagig/intergration IP in the same layer that Poet is offering.

   2026/08/21 12:46UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   $POET 正在给 Lumilens 供货，Lumilens 也是一家顶级的超大规模数据中心供应商（手握数十亿美元的客户合同）。 Lite-On 也是个重要玩家。 我想说的是，他们很可能被 $MRVL 的 Celestial 项目淘汰了，因为 Marvell 在 POET 提供的那一层有他们自己的封装/集成 IP。
3. 2026/08/21 09:40UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.

   2026/08/21 09:40UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   大家都在玩儿命猜 $SKHY CPO 路线图的供应链，那我来凑个热闹。 我猜 SK 海力士在评估 Celestial/Ayar，并且在第一代部署后，会重点评估 microLED。 这两家公司都为此努力了一段时间了。 - Ayar 曾在 SK 海力士自己的网站上出现，涉及光纤与内存连接。 - Marvell 正在积极与 SK 海力士合作开发定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁是 Celestial 的老板）。 Celestial/Ayar 在 SK 海力士链接的《Nature》论文中也被引用，这在技术相关性上有所帮助： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光学 I/O 小芯片），Stojanovic 也是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳 Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想尽量写得简短些。 对于更上游的受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最直接的受益者，因为他们很可能同时供货给 Celestial 和 Ayar。 关于中介层/封装 IP……大家之前在猜 $POET，但 Marvell 在宣布收购 Celestial 后，今年很可能就把它垂直整合掉了。 考虑到 Marvell 在收购 Celestial 之前就已经拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如，他们在 2023 年就展示过硅光子中介层）。 -> AMS Osram（我没持有），看起来他们也在这个领域进行联合开发，因为他们今年突然特别强调 HBM <-> 光学技术会增加他们的潜在市场规模（TAM）。 总结：我把 Ayar/Celestial 看作 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLED 在第一代之后，可能会在 2029 年左右实现商业化。（这纯属个人猜测） 顺便给量子点兄弟们扔块骨头，这篇论文被引用了大概 5 次。
4. 2026/08/18 14:03UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.

   2026/08/18 14:03UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 的走势来看，AI 半导体板块现在是下跌的。那些高贝塔值的股票，看起来跌得最惨。 从我观察过的光学股走势来看，$LITE / $COHR 回升得最快，接着是像 $AAOI / $AXTI 这种体量更大但贝塔值仍然很高的股票（恢复了一半）。 然后像 $SIVE / $POET 这类股票，恢复时间最长。但我确实看到，当市场风险偏好提升，或者财报迫使市场重新估值的时候，这些股票的反弹会更猛。
5. 2026/08/13 11:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   @Papsytwinz Uhh nothing really too interesting aside from a new $2.3M purchase order for $POET Will need to wait for earnings call.

   2026/08/13 11:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   @Papsytwinz 呃，除了 $POET 拿到了一笔新的 230 万美元的采购订单，没啥特别有意思的。 还得等财报电话会。
6. 2026/08/13 10:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   @dra99aso I usually just post research along the way as new news comes out (eg. Lumilens $5.5B valuation announcement + hyperscaler contracts). But I'll drop it in disclosures if I have a position on something like $POET or $SMCI earlier. Maybe I'll do a roundup TLDR later.

   2026/08/13 10:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   @dra99aso 我通常就是随着新消息（比如 Lumilens 宣布估值 55 亿美元，以及签下超大规模数据中心合同）出来，一路发研究报告。 但如果我早些时候就持有 $POET 或 $SMCI 这样的股票，我会把它写在披露里。也许我稍后会做个总结性的 TLDR。
7. 2026/08/13 10:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   If I had to categorize it: $SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027? $AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections? $POET = Waiting for Customers Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.

   2026/08/13 10:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   如果非要分类的话： $SIVE = 等待营收转化 大量超大规模数据中心供应商 + 对CW DFB的需求可见性高。市场会如何给这段等待期定价，或者赋予多少溢价呢？等着看2027年上半年1.6T产品到2027年下半年CPO（共同封装光学）规模化生产的进展。 $AAOI = 等待产能执行 收发器需求可见度极高。他们能把产能提升上去，达到他们每月4.71亿美元的预测吗？ $POET = 等待客户 相对于市值（MC）来说现金太多 + 供应链产能布局资金充足，需求可见性低。
8. 2026/08/13 10:17UTC看多信心分：4/10新建跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.

   2026/08/13 10:17UTC看多信心分：4/10新建跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   好的，这是我对 $POET 的看法，因为显然大家在 Reddit 论坛上庆祝我建了小仓位。 - 我完全不明白。真的完全不明白。他们是怎么说服股东稀释这么多股份，稀释到： 现在他们手头有大概 8.3 亿美元现金，简直离谱。 我猜他们应该差不多够了，要是还需要更多，我简直不敢相信。 所以现在… 他们有大约 8.3 亿美元可以用来发展业务，比如并购，而且最近企业价值 (EV) 跌得很低（比如 12.5 亿美元的市值，手头却有 8.3 亿美元现金），我觉得冒这个险是值得的。 - 他们的目标是到 2027 年实现每年 1200 万颗光引擎的年化产能，这个增产速度相当离谱。 我还需要研究一下 Poet 产品的平均销售价格 (ASP)，但大概是 125 到 200 美元？所以如果按 150 美元的 ASP 算，营收上限就是 18 亿美元。 但他们现在就像是反向的 $AAOI：没有明显的市场需求来填满所有产能。除了 Lumilens 之外，Lumilens 现在是备受瞩目的超
9. 2026/08/12 22:59UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   English · 原文

   My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now. But TLDR of $COHR earnings: "given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally" - Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally... I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027) $AAOI -> Internal $COHR -> Internal Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity. "Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility] - Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years. "we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production" - Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck. "absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in" "we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027" - Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027. - "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027" - $COHR revenue go brrr So for regular numbers it's: - $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be happening entering Q4 into 2027 - Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2% Next quarter guide is: - Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue - Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5% Basically: $1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027) ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins) For operating margins: 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.

   2026/08/12 22:59UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

   中文 · 翻译

   我主要想说的是，你那些商家 CW 激光供应商现在看来是**极其重要**了。 但简单说一下 $COHR 财报重点： “考虑到我们数据中心业务对光模块的需求，我预计在不远的将来我们不会对外销售磷化铟激光器。” - 如果 $AAOI 没有足够的产能用于第一代 CPO 部署，$COHR 又不向外销售，那那些对外销售 InP 激光器的公司价值就更大了。 我想这就是为什么 $MTSI 说一大堆客户正急着找他们要 InP CW DFB 激光器（而且他们直到 2027 年底都不会有显著产能上线）。 $AAOI → 内部使用 $COHR → 内部使用 买家 → 能找的产能就更少了。 “我们的积压订单现在已经排到 2027 财年，基本上已经完全订满了。我们差不多已经排到 2027 年底了。” [巨大的需求可见性] - Coherent 也提到了长期供货协议（LTA）会持续到本世纪末。所以这有点印证了 $POET 首席执行官在股东大会上说的，“三巨头”未来两年产能全卖光了。 “我们目前在组装和测试产能方面没有限制。我们真正受限的是磷化铟生产的爬坡。” - 这是给那些“瓶颈论”兄弟们说的，组装/测试不是瓶颈。 “CPO 需求绝对没有推迟。实际上，情况正好相反。我们看到需求增加了，客户甚至要求提前交付。” “我们继续预计，用于规模化应用的 CPO 收入将在 2027 年下半年开始流入。” - 如果 $LITE、$COHR 都重申 CPO 规模化应用的收入会在 2027 年下半年到来，这对其他 CPO 玩家来说是一个重要的信号。 - “到 2027 财年末，季度营收将超过 30 亿美元。” - $COHR 营收突飞猛进。 所以常规数据如下： - 营收 20.46 亿美元（环比增长 13.3%，同比增长 33.8%），主要营收增长看来会发生在进入第四季度到 2027 年。 - 非 GAAP 毛利率：40.2%。 下一季度指引是： - 营收：22-24 亿美元。 - 非 GAAP 毛利率：39.5-41.5%。 基本上就是： 16.9 亿美元 → 18.1 亿美元 → 20.5 亿美元 → 约 23.0 亿美元 → 30 亿美元（2027 财年末） 约 39% → 39.6% → 40.2% → 约 40.5%（毛利率） 营业利润率方面： 18.0% → 19.5% → 19.9% → 20.3% → 21.8% 与 $LITE 在盈利能力上的利润增长相比，我没那么印象深刻，但 $COHR 的营收规模正在迅速增长。
10. 2026/08/12 08:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.

    2026/08/12 08:13UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    - 因为新款 1.6T 光模块和 CPO 的出货量还没起来。$SIVE 正在瞄准所有下一代光学技术迭代。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署要到 2028 年才开始，你不可能在 2024 年实现九位数的营收。 - $SIVE 有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错的话，其中有四分之一到三分之一是博士。 他们很多工作都是围绕 IP，并且利用 Win Semi 和外部代工厂进行量产。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，员工数量就会急剧膨胀。 我不太明白你为什么说一个给 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是没希望的。 这可能是我见过的最独特的公司之一。
11. 2026/08/11 19:53UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    @NicolaRussoIT Not as familiar with adoption read through with $ANET XPO MSA (ik $MSFT has been the most openly supportive).. so can't really give a good answer to implications on other players like $POET. https://t.co/Xi6zrmo5ha

    2026/08/11 19:53UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    @NicolaRussoIT 我对 $ANET、$XPO、MSA 这种采用情况的了解没那么多（我知道 $MSFT 是最公开支持的），所以对于它对 $POET 这样的其他玩家会有什么影响，我真不好给个准确的答案。https://t.co/Xi6zrmo5ha
12. 2026/08/10 02:19UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    I think we already got too many hints from $AAOI earnings about demand 20-40% imbalance for optical transivers with lasers as a bottleneck. And $POET stating big 3 are completely sold out of capacity next 2 years during their AGM. I don’t give earnings up or down predictions since it’s a coin flip most of the time. But I can say that a lot of pricing happens before earnings, unless there’s something very unexpected. Regardless I expect $LITE earnings to come out really strong, and I primary use it as a read through for your other laser players.

    2026/08/10 02:19UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    我觉得我们已经从 $AAOI 的财报里得到很多暗示了，光模块的需求有 20-40% 的不平衡，而激光器是瓶颈。 还有 $POET 在他们的股东大会上说，三大巨头未来两年的产能都已完全售罄。 我不会去预测财报是好是坏，因为大部分时候这都像抛硬币一样。但我可以肯定地说，很多价格波动都在财报前就发生了，除非出现非常意想不到的情况。 无论如何，我预计 $LITE 的财报会非常强劲，我主要把它当作一个风向标，来解读其他激光器厂商的表现。
13. 2026/08/09 01:32UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.

    2026/08/09 01:32UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能不能拿到更多晶圆厂产能分配的，毕竟现在连续波 DFB 短缺问题挺普遍的。 因为我很有信心，一旦通过认证并开始大规模量产，他们的产品肯定会卖脱销。 但除此之外 > 从像 $MTSI / $AAOI 这样的其他公司财报中，能再次确认供需不平衡会很有帮助。 > 上次财报中提到的与可插拔模块领域玩家的新开发/认证进展，这可能是最重要的。 > 与 $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS 的合作进展或其他机会，也许能有一些初步采购订单就更好了。 > 纳斯达克上市进展再次强调（我们已经知道计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍然把这个放在优先位置，因为它能为他们的并购提供更多资金，希望能够深化到可插拔技术栈。 我认为营收拐点大约会在 2027 年上半年出现，所以目前的营收/利润数据不太重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发布一份声明，比如“我们生产的任何东西都预计能在 2028 年售罄”之类的话，那可就太牛了。
14. 2026/08/07 07:26UTC看多信心分：3/10新建跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Earlier today, optical interconnect company Lumilens "emerges from stealth" at a $5.5B valuation, after raising $700m. Just as a recap from $POET / $SIVE Linkedin OSINT mapping I shared earlier, Lumilens was supplying a top 3 hyperscaler customer. So we got confirmation of that a month later, along with the material figure that Lumilens has a "multi-billion-dollar customer agreement". And just for reference, $POET has existing contracts with Lumilens ($50m purchase order, up to $500m) + contracts with $SIVE (depending on product lines). I actually took tiny positions in POET again after reading this news, since it finally gives them visibility into extremely well funded hyperscaler suppliers (on top of Poet's really large balance sheet). But TLDR: > Lumilens around similar (or even higher) valuations as Lightmatter/Ayar, bigger than markets thought with hyperscaler customers. > nice read through upstream on $POET (derisking) / $SIVE. > Great for optical valuations in general, seeing a company go to $5.5B in 2 years.

    2026/08/07 07:26UTC看多信心分：3/10新建跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    今天早些时候，光互联公司 Lumilens 在完成 7 亿美元融资后，“揭开神秘面纱”，估值高达 55 亿美元。 简单回顾一下我之前分享的关于 $POET / $SIVE 领英开源情报（OSINT）分析：Lumilens 曾为一家全球前三大超大规模云服务商供货。 所以，一个月后我们得到了证实，同时还有一个关键信息是 Lumilens 拥有一份“数十亿美元的客户协议”。 顺便提一下，$POET 与 Lumilens 已经有合作合同（一份 5000 万美元的采购订单，总额可达 5 亿美元），并且与 $SIVE 也有合同（具体取决于产品线）。 读完这条新闻后，我其实
15. 2026/07/31 08:57UTC看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production. On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.

    2026/07/31 08:57UTC看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    现在我仔细想想，$POET 的光学中介层这块，对于 $SIVE 来说，实际比我原以为的更重要一些。 最初的说法是到 2026 年底“准备就绪”。 但 $POET 升级了措辞，表示使用 Sivers 激光器的“量产”预计在 2026 年底。 那么，来自 $JBL 的大批量订单发给 $POET，应该会在 2027 年上半年落地。这多少有点道理，因为 Sivers 确实完成了一轮机构超额认购的融资，用于未来的大规模生产。 话说回来，不敢相信都已经八月了，离 2027 年只剩 5 个月了… 那曾是我预设的玻璃基板、CPO、800V 和新架构产能爬坡的爆发期。
16. 2026/07/30 07:40UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    @A22GEO The $POET optical interposer piece is actually a very interesting update and talks about $SIVE. Since it's a material timeline upgrade wording for "production" EOY 2026, for Sivers + Poet. Back when Sivers did their PR it was "production readiness" https://t.co/EHkOogR39K

    2026/07/30 07:40UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    @A22GEO $POET 的光互连芯片那部分，实际上是个非常有意思的更新，而且提到了 $SIVE。 因为对 Sivers + Poet 来说，这是把“生产”定在2026年底的一个实质性的时间线升级措辞。 回想Sivers之前发公关稿的时候，说的是“准备好生产” https://t.co/EHkOogR39K
17. 2026/07/30 07:26UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.

    2026/07/30 07:26UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    我觉得我（或者任何人）都无法准确抄底。不然，如果他们知道的话，直接玩周度期权就行了。 不过，有些股票真的很难再跌了，比如 $AAOI 的年化远期营收/市值比都快接近 1 倍了。 $POET 跌得太多了，现在大概是 8 亿美元现金对 10.8 亿美元市值。 总的来说，连 Leopond 都觉得现在的估值极具吸引力，所以他正在筹集更多资金来逢低买入。不过谁知道呢？ 但从中长期来看，根据我自己的理论，我预计一旦营收预测体现在财报中，它们就会有好的表现。 我重申了 $AAOI 的营收拐点在 2027 年上半年末…… $NBIS 的营收拐点在 2026 年第四季度，依此类推，这是我自己的估计。 当然，在那之前会有很多波动。
18. 2026/07/16 14:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.

    2026/07/16 14:54UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    很多人都好奇 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi + 其他）产能扩张的模型是怎样的： 如果以 Win Semi 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端分配（假设良率 65%，平均售价 $50-$75）， Sivers 每年能支持 $3.41 亿到 $5.12 亿的阵列收入。鉴于管理层设定的 50-60%+ 毛利率目标上限，这大概会是： 每年 $2.05 亿到 $3.07 亿的毛利润。 对比 Sivers 目前约 $11 亿的市值，如果这个产能场景在 2028 年实现，大概是： 市销率/毛利润倍数在 3.6-5.4 倍。 如果分配比例达到 15%，毛利润将是 $3.07 亿到 $4.61 亿（市销率/毛利润倍数在 2.4-3.6 倍）。 Sivers CEO 也回复说他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以扩大产能。从一份旧的演示文稿来看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的认证。 所以随着 CPO 的兴起，产能目标可能比这里提到的还要大。 我还预计未来几个季度收入管道预测会调高，因为会有更多通过认证的供应商进入高量产阶段。 _ 至于需求侧，CW 也非常受限。 Lumentum 为了履行 EML 义务，正在从公开市场购买 CW，这从他们的财报电话会议记录中可见一斑。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议以确保 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET、O-NET 等公司合作扩大产能时…… 考虑到目前的限制，任何独立通过认证并投入使用的产能都很可能会被吸收。 锦上添花的是，Morgan Stanley 在他们最近的报告中将 $SIVE（约 $11 亿）列为三家领先的 CPO 激光器供应商之一。 与市值 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，这并非没有道理…… _ 总结：Sivers 只需要从 Win Semi 获得少量产能分配，就能实现相对于当前估值而言可观的毛收入。 我认为，如果他们在美国纳斯达克上市后通过 M&A 扩大总可寻址市场（TAM），那将是最大的收入增长潜力，目前尚未被模型纳入。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的策略，构建完整的收发器模块或光引擎。
19. 2026/07/15 15:07UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).

    2026/07/15 15:07UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    我没看到任何根本性的问题。市场很可能会时不时出现大幅回调，用来清洗保证金/杠杆，然后才会继续上涨。 这个月感觉就像一年中这样的时刻？ $POET 证实了那些大型光学巨头，比如 $LITE、$COHR，未来两年订单都排满了，光子学领域可能要到 2029 年。 Innolight 证实了 3 天前上调了 800G 收发器预期，所以这对 $AAOI 和其他公司来说应该是利好。 三星成为了全球最赚钱的公司，并继续预测未来几个季度 DRAM 价格上涨。$MU 签署了 16+ 份长期协议（LTA），这表明内存需求是结构性的... $META 加上超大规模数据中心资本支出计划都处于预测的较高区间。 我不会把短期价格波动和长期趋势混为一谈。就像 $AEHR 的情况那样，市场恢复通常会非常快（比如，一个月的回调可能一夜之间就被抹平）。
20. 2026/07/08 13:05UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables. - $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more. O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say. Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources. And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028. How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is: It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked). For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out. The main area of interest is downstream IP acquisition for TAM expansion, so I think that opportunity pipeline undersells forward growth going forward.

    2026/07/08 13:05UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    对于$SIVE这种布局，最好是看看他们的合作伙伴和时间线。 - $JBL 在摩根大通的炉边谈话中确认，他们凭借 1.6T LRO 拥有相对显著的护城河，并且在接下来的 1-4 个月内（这是两个月前说的）完成资质认证。所以，资质认证完成的时间点应该在 2026 年 8 月到 2027 年 3 月之间，然后 Sivers 的产品就可以在可插拔模块中大规模量产了。 - $AEVA 的目标是大概在 2026 年第四季度开始大规模制造 (HVM)，而 $POET 将在 2026 年下半年开始生产，但可能上半年晚些时候就会有更多进展。 我认为 O-Net、Ayar、$GFS 和其他公司大概会在 2027 年左右，那更多是 CPO 的时间线，而不是严格意义上的 $SIVE。 对执行力很有信心，因为 $SIVE 在许多不同的超大规模供应商渠道中都拥有技术和资质认证的
21. 2026/07/07 14:42UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion. And it's literally trading less than $POET for some reason. All while CW lasers are extremely bottlenecked to the point $LITE can't make enough. Then they got a considerable amount of oversubscribed funding for fabless laser ramp recently. Comfortable long for me, probably one of the stocks that way overshot selloff imo.

    2026/07/07 14:42UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $SIVE 应该是我目前最喜欢的股票了，短期下跌我一点不担心。 - 他们是 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模数据中心供应商的激光供应商。 - 计划在未来几个季度在纳斯达克上市 - 之后的目标是通过并购拓展市场规模（TAM）。 而且不知道为什么，它目前的交易价格竟然比 $POET 还低。与此同时，连续波（CW）激光器产能严重瓶颈，连 $LITE 都供不应求。 最近他们又为无晶圆厂激光器产能扩张获得了可观的超额认购资金。 对我来说，这是一个安心长期持有的标的，在我看来，它很可能是那批被过度抛售的股票之一。
22. 2026/07/02 17:22UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable players, potentially Eoptolink/Innolight mass producing pluggables with $SIVE as lasers is revenue. 6. $POET entering volume production is revenue.

    2026/07/02 17:22UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    你是不是傻？ 1. $JBL 量产 1.6T LRO 就是营收。 2. O-Net 量产 ELS 就是营收。 3. $GFS 给超大规模数据中心用 $SIVE 作为参考激光器，就是营收。 4. Ayar 加入 $NVDA 的 NVLink 做 CPO，并用 $SIVE 进行量产，就是营收。 5. 其他可插拔模块厂商，可能是 Eoptolink/Innolight，量产以 $SIVE 作为激光器的可插拔模块，就是营收。 6. $POET 进入量产就是营收。
23. 2026/07/02 17:12UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell. $SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs. With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term. Then $GFS, Ayar, and many other players are volume ramping later in 2027. Sivers also confirmed intent to complete NASDAQ Listing in the next few quarters. It's probably my highest conviction photonics long, everything seems to be coming into place.

    2026/07/02 17:12UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    没人应该关注技术分析图，那些只是人们凭空画些弯弯扭扭的线，试图说服别人卖出。 $SIVE 刚刚紧急募资 7000 万美元用于大规模生产，很可能是为了从晶圆厂获得配额。 $JBL、$POET、$AEVA 和其他公司短期内都将迎来产量爬坡。 然后 $GFS、Ayar 以及许多其他玩家将在 2027 年晚些时候迎来产量爬坡。 Sivers 还确认了在未来几个季度完成纳斯达克上市的意向。 这可能是我最有信心的光子学多头股，一切似乎都正在到位。
24. 2026/07/02 16:56UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks). Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up. Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS. Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back. But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out. Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.

    2026/07/02 16:56UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    光子技术是有实实在在的营收数据支撑的，而且这是 $NVDA 大力推动的架构转型。 量子技术则几乎没什么营收。 根据 $POET 股东大会的消息，$LITE 未来两年（可能从2029年开始）的产品已经完全售罄。Lumentum 的产能非常紧张，甚至要从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（财报电话会议记录里提到了）。 $COHR 则卡在瓶颈上，所以他们向 Lumentum 购买 EML。 接着，$AAOI 正带着“美国制造”的独立连续波产能入局，他们预计到2027年上半年，季度营收将达到14亿美元，要知道它今天市值才93亿美元，简直太低了。 所以，现在像 $AAOI 或 $SIVE 这样拥有独立连续波产能的厂商，他们的产能很可能会变成稀缺资源。 很多其他超大规模数据中心厂商已经开始谈长期供货协议（来自 Trendforce 的消息）。而像 $AMD 这样的公司，目前正在和 $AAOI 等厂商洽谈（Rosenblatt 的渠道调研显示）。 从主题上看，根据 GS（高盛）的报告，未来两年市场总规模（TAM）将增长9倍，达到1540亿美元，特别是在横向扩展/纵向扩展方面，每美元内容投入将分别增加16倍/45倍。 然后还有来自 $META 的关于 AI 的整体主题性下跌，这被很多人误解了，因为大家混淆了“过剩产能”的真正含义。而且正如 UBS（瑞银）提到的，Meta 计划提供云服务并不是什么新鲜事。 彭博社就是有这种倾向，喜欢发布导致半导体行业全面暴跌的消息，就像几个月前关于英伟达出口管制的那次。 但我很清楚自己持有的是什么，所以我对这些数据会实现很有信心。 尤其是在所有主要玩家都产能售罄的情况下，基本面终究会追上来的。
25. 2026/06/30 17:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership. My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors. This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GFS on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support. Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment). A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.

    2026/06/30 17:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $SIVE 正在筹集约 6100 万美元（6 亿瑞典克朗），用于扩大 InP 激光器和光放大器的制造产能。 Sivers 采用的是轻晶圆厂模式，所以这很可能预示着 Jabil 和其其他合作伙伴将分配/扩大用于连续波 DFB 激光器生产的代工产能。 这也可能指向在已公布的 WIN 合作之外，更广泛的代工分配/产能扩大。 我的反馈是，如果投资者都是长期机构，并且没有大幅折价（30 天 VWAP），那这就是非常看涨的消息。否则，就需要重新评估是否存在套利或短期投资者。 现在是引入像 $GFS 这样的理想战略投资者进入资本结构的最佳时机。同时也要专注于争取更多美国机构的支持。 尤其考虑到 5600 万美元对于一家想要投资光子学领域的美国机构来说只是一笔小数目（例如，看看 Poet 的 4 亿美元注册直接发行，就能了解市场情绪）。 很多都“取决于更多信息何时公布”，但考虑到 Siver 的轻晶圆厂模式，这似乎是量产的一个非常积极的信号。
26. 2026/06/29 08:07UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Nah, I actually read the whole $POET AGM transcript in the shower. And then compared what they said, compared to what markets might have known already. This was manual since it’s on some random GitHub page rather than officially published yet afaik. Then I just learn interesting insights from statements like $POET confidently saying laser players are completely sold out next two years. Since it’s signal for laser bottleneck likely extending into 2029 thematically.

    2026/06/29 08:07UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    没有啦，我其实是在洗澡的时候把整个 $POET 股东会记录读完了。然后对比了一下他们说的，跟市场可能已经知道的信息。 全靠手动干的，因为它发在某个乱七八糟的 GitHub 页面上，目前好像还没正式发布。 然后呢，我就从类似 $POET 自信地说“激光厂商未来两年产能全部售罄”这样的表述里，提炼了一些有意思的洞察。 因为这是一个信号，某种程度上说明激光瓶颈可能要延续到 2029 年这个主题。
27. 2026/06/29 06:57UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source. This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp. - Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years. Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT) - $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals). - "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components." Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks. - "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year." Just production timelines H2. In terms of $POET volumes: - existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year - projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month - roughly 10x capacity expansion I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive. However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable. But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.

    2026/06/29 06:57UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    只是关于 $POET 股东大会的一些笔记，以及对光学市场的一些解读： - "排名前三的激光器供应商控制了 68% 的市场，而且他们未来两年的产能已经全部售罄" $LITE 的 CEO 说的是到 2028 年，所以 POET 等于变相确认了激光器短缺会持续到 2029 年。 - 与一个新客户签订了 NRE（一次性工程费）协议，基于 POET 的中介层用于高功率外部光源。 考虑到 2025 年 9 月 29 日关于 ELS 的新闻稿，这很可能是 $SIVE 作为激光器供应商，如果进入量产爬坡，这个新客户的认证将对营收产生实质影响。 - POET 预计与 Lumilens 的商业协议在未来 5 年内规模将超过 5 亿美元。 Lumilens 声称一家排名前三的超大规模客户是他们的初始客户（通过 LinkedIn 开源情报）。 - 资产负债表上有 8.3 亿美元现金（这更偏向 POET 的基本面）。 - "整个光学元件行业目前正面临关键元器件的严重短缺。" 再次印证了我们已知的光学瓶颈问题。 - "2026 年下半年开始量产爬坡。" 只是 H2（下半年）的生产时间表。 关于 $POET 的产量： - 现有产能约为每年 100 万个光学引擎 - 预计到 2027 年底的需求约为每月 100 万个光学引擎 - 大约需要扩大 10 倍产能 我不持有 Poet，但如果管理层能兑现这些预测，方向上看是非常积极的。 不过有一点需要注意的是，与其他有明确超大规模客户来支撑产能收入的供应商（如 $AAOI）不同，$POET 似乎更值得怀疑。 但如果他们能实现这些预测，这对 $POET 来说确实是一个非常积极的展望。
28. 2026/06/27 02:11UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET? Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so. Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell. For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already). As well as valuations from M&A desirability. Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.

    2026/06/27 02:11UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $SPCX / 埃隆·马斯克收购了光网络初创公司 Mesh。 这家公司正在研发 1.6T OSFP（可插拔模块）。 看起来他们掌握光学引擎/封装技术，但很可能会从外部供应商那里采购 CW DFB 激光器。 $SIVE 是其中一家对初创公司比较友好的潜在商业供应商，就像 Ayar 与 $POET 的合作那样？ 也许 $LITE 和 $MTSI 也有一点历史渊源，但可能性小一些。 不管怎样，最近很多初创公司（比如 Celestial）被 Marvell 收购，这是非常积极的信号。 对商业激光器供应商的收入来说（与初创公司合作 → 被设计进去后，像 SpaceX 这样的超大规模客户会带来收入）。 对并购带来的估值也有好处。 这也说明，如果埃隆·马斯克直接买下这些公司，光互连就是正确的方向。
29. 2026/06/26 10:02UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential. In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE: - $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers - $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE - $AMD went to $GFS for CPO - $SIVE announced CW with TFLN - Ayar (using $SIVE) raised a bunch for volume ramp and joined $NVDA NVLink ecosystem - AlChip private placement with Amazon, which is Ayar's primary ASIC partner (hinting at Trainium wins) - O-Net new ELS partnership with $SIVE for mass production - $POET new purchase order with a customer that stated their initial clients is a "top-3 hyperscaper" - New CHIPS Act nondilutive funding - "LIDAR customer will ramp production starting Q4 2026," which is likely $AEVA - New information discovery likely linking $SIVE customer to $MRVL Celestial (not through Poet), Lightelligence, and Lightelligence. - New information discovery about Ayar removing Lumentum / Macom from website and likely making Sivers primary source - More pluggable players on top of $JBL. - $NVDA bottlenecking CW laser supply and $AMD + other CSPs going around signing LTAs - NASDAQ listing planned And more.

    2026/06/26 10:02UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    倒也不是，我个人还是觉得它被低估了。关键是看市值和未来营收潜力的对比。 就在这么短的时间内，关于 $SIVE 就有： - $JBL 宣布与 Sivers 合作，推出 1.6T LRO。 - $GFS 发布了与 $SIVE 相关的参考激光器公告。 - $AMD 转而向 $GFS 寻求 CPO（封装光学）。 - $SIVE 宣布与 TFLN 合作推出 CW（连续波）。 - Ayar（使用 $SIVE 的技术）获得了大量融资以扩大生产，并加入了 $NVDA 的 NVLink 生态系统。
30. 2026/06/25 16:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.

    2026/06/25 16:15UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    哦，我觉得你误会了……随着价格下跌，我反而比以往任何时候都更看好。 $SIVE 市值大约 19 亿美元，它有： - $GFS 的参考激光器 - 为 Ayar 及其他 $NVDA NVLink 生态系统中的 CPO 扩容提供激光器 - 为 $POET 及其他公司提供 CPO 规模扩展 - 为 $JBL 及其他公司提供 1.6T+ 可插拔光收发器 - O-Net 提供 ELS 大规模生产 所以，所有这些超大规模数据中心供应商都想尽可能多地生产，而 Sivers 是激光器的瓶颈…… 这只是 Win Semi 和其他合作伙伴能生产多少的问题，$SIVE 能获得大约 60% 的毛利率，还有向下拓展潜在市场（TAM）的选择权。 瑞典媒体一直在唱衰的最近 15% 股票增发，是为了纳斯达克上市流通股和并购（以及授权）。 你只是看到潜在的做空者在运营非法机器人农场，瑞典媒体对一家瑞典上市公司唱衰，再加上整体宏观下跌。 那笔大约 1.4 亿美元的可转债确实存在，但对美国机构来说只是九牛一毛。等数据出来后，我们可能会看到更多的机构持仓。 但这也就是为什么 $SIVE 优先考虑在纳斯达克上市是件好事，这样他们就不用处理这些噪音和当地媒体了。 $AAOI 市值 100 亿美元，它有： - 一家端到端（美国）的激光/设计/组装公司，预计在 2027 年下半年进入上半年，营收将达到 4.71 亿美元。 - 据说还有像 $AMD 这样的其他超大规模数据中心公司正在讨论长期协议（LTAs）。 而且他们在进行了大约 14 亿美元的 ATM（4 亿 + 4 亿 + 6 亿）后，可能手头现金充裕。 只要管理层不瞎扯，有了那些惊人的营收预测，差不多就够了。 这让我想起了去年 $NBIS 跌到 70 美元的时候，即使当时它预计年度经常性收入（ARR）有 70-90 亿美元，随着时间线临近，它又恢复到 250 多美元。感觉像是似曾相识。 我只是在等待两者的销量都能放量。光子学通常比其他行业波动更大。
31. 2026/06/25 15:26UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    @RJCcapital Bruh $SIVE is $GFS reference laser, $JBL 1.6T pluggable laser, Ayar CPO scale up laser, $POET scale out laser, O-Net ELS laser. And many other undisclosed partnerships. Watch and learn.

    2026/06/25 15:26UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    @RJCcapital 老哥，$SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器，$JBL 的 1.6T 可插拔激光器，Ayar 的 CPO 规模化激光器，$POET 的扩展激光器，还有 O-Net 的 ELS 激光器。 还有很多没公开的合作。 看着学吧。
32. 2026/06/24 13:41UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    @Web3Eden01 Short sellers (eg. Night Market) were claiming Lumilens had no customers on their $POET short report. So Lumilens going out and saying they have a top-3 hyperscaler customer is probably pretty material.

    2026/06/24 13:41UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    @Web3Eden01 做空机构（比如 Night Market）在他们的 $POET 做空报告里声称 Lumilens 没有客户。 现在 Lumilens 直接跳出来说他们有一家顶级三大超大规模客户，这消息应该挺重磅的。
33. 2026/06/24 13:30UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO. With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO. If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens. Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)

    2026/06/24 13:30UTC看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    Poet OSINT 社群挖到的新有趣线索： 看起来 $POET / $SIVE 很可能要拿下全球前三的云巨头之一（亚马逊、微软、谷歌中的一家）。 线索来自 Lumilens 的 CEO Ankur Singla 在 LinkedIn 上的一则更新。 他说他们的客户就是前三的云巨头之一，而且那条帖子的重点是 CPO/NPO。 顺着这条线索，考虑到 PoET 用的是 CPO Scale Out/NPO，Sivers 的连续波 DFB 光源方案比其它 EML 供应商的可能性更大。 如果你忘了提一下：Sivers 是 Poet 的激光光源供应商。而 Poet 和 Lumilens 之间有采购协议。 在官方确认之前，能从公开信息里挖到这种潜在的大线索，总是很有意思。（披露：做多 Sivers）
34. 2026/06/21 11:16UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Mapping like - JP Morgan fireside conference for Jabil timelines + Quotes around 1.6T LRO - Sivers 2025 annual around $POET various press releases with $GFS and others. - Old investor customers decks mapped with different investment rounds of cpo startups at the time All merged together into a thesis.

    2026/06/21 11:16UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    大致像这样： - 摩根大通关于 Jabil 时间线的炉边会议 + 涉及约 1.6T LRO 的引述 - Sivers 2025 年度相关，$POET 与 $GFS 等多家公司的各种新闻稿 - 结合当时不同轮次 CPO 初创公司融资情况的旧版投资者推介材料 所有这些汇总起来，形成了一套投资逻辑。
35. 2026/06/21 11:04UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.

    2026/06/21 11:04UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    这是一种误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光供应商，不仅仅是 CPO 规模化的配套。 可插拔、规模化 CPO（Scale out CPO）、Scale up CPO、NPO 等等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 联手开挂，用 CW 激光器开发出了 1.6T 光收发器。 有效绕开了 EML 瓶颈，甚至还提升了能效。 从 Jabil 管理层的说法来看，他们打造了一个"相对显著的护城河"。 所以在下一代 1.6T 可插拔收发器上，Sivers 看起来立刻就会被用上。 市场也忽略了这一细节：Jabil 发布公告后，其他可插拔厂商也找上门了，SIVE 现在正在跟他们合作（很可能是联合开发、认证阶段）。 没有太多做光收发器的厂商是像 Lumentum 那样垂直整合的（想想：Innolight/eoptolink 之类的）。 所以这些都是在推进中的开发项目，只是还没公开披露，随时可能出新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的规模化 CPO，比如 $POET 这类玩家，$SIVE 是它们的激光供应商。 - Scale up CPO 则是在 2027 年下半年，来自 Ayar 和英伟达的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，那才是光器件玩家们的主要放量阶段。 但这时候，从供应链图谱来看，$SIVE 看起来碾压了其他所有对手。 因为他们很可能从很久以前就开始跟 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等公司一起研发设计，那时这些公司还很小。 而且还有像这样的： 对于 $GFS 这类代工厂来说，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 这还没算上 O-Net 这样的大公司正在用 $SIVE 构建 ELS，很可能是面向亚洲超大规模数据中心供应链的。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器隘口长线标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，新的光架构里到处都有他们的影子。
36. 2026/06/19 12:40UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Yes, choosing the right theme is extremely important. Even if $POET doesn't really do anything, it still gets brought up thematically due to $LITE, $COHR, and others. Even if $RDDT outperforms extremely hard, it still gets brought down from $META, $MSFT, $CRM, and other software basket names.

    2026/06/19 12:40UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    没错，选对主题极其重要。 就算 $POET 本身没什么动作，它也会因为 $LITE、$COHR 和其他股票而被带到主题上来。 就算 $RDDT 表现极其强势，它还是会因为 $META、$MSFT、$CRM 以及其他软件篮子里的票而被拖下来。
37. 2026/06/15 12:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.

    2026/06/15 12:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
38. 2026/06/15 02:36UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    @chenchuwei85698 $POET is sitting on too much after another $400m private placement. So they're near ~$1B pure cash. Not a fan of poet, but even if their tech doesn't get qualified into hyperscalers, they can always acquire other companies to scale.

    2026/06/15 02:36UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    @chenchuwei85698 $POET 在又一轮 4 亿私募配售后，手里现金太多了。所以他们现在差不多有近 10 亿美元纯现金。 我不是很看好 POET，但就算他们的技术进不了超大规模数据中心，也随时可以收购其他公司来扩大规模。
39. 2026/06/09 07:49UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Many work against the interest of retail investors. Especially as JP Morgan / US institutions are trying to buy up the float. You have a company funded with CHIPS Act, in major hyperscaler supply chains from $NVDA to others, powering Ayar for CPO, $JBL for pluggables. And now the reference laser for $GFS. With closest ramp with $AEVA / $POET likely coming next. And following that likely US NASDAQ Listing. Sivers is one of the most compelling photonics companies, and pretty sure all the deals established that already.

    2026/06/09 07:49UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    很多动作都对散户投资者不利。 尤其是当摩根大通 / 美国机构正试图买断流通股的时候。 你有一家靠《芯片法案》资金支持的公司，身处从 $NVDA 到其他巨头的主要超大规模数据中心供应链中，为 Ayar 提供 CPO 方案，为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块。现在又成了 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商。 接下来最接近放量的很可能是 $AEVA / $POET。再之后，大概率就会在美国纳斯达克上市。 Sivers 是光子学领域最引人注目的公司之一，我相当确定已有的所有交易都已经证明了这一点。
40. 2026/06/03 11:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it. -> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On -> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."

    2026/06/03 11:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    纳斯达克与欧盟上市的核心区别： $POET：24 亿美元市值 → 封装 Sivers 激光器 → 有一份 5000 万美元的预生产合同（含权证） > $XFAB：17 亿美元市值 → 碳化硅/氮化镓/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受欧盟芯片法案、美国芯片法案 PMT 支持 → 市净率低于重置成本 → $NVDA、$NOK 直接评估其量产前的硅光子代工厂，2027/2028 年产能爬坡 → $XFAB 作为欧洲光子供应链规模化量产的主导代工厂，旗下有 IMEC/CEA-Leti、Ligentec、Smart Photonics、PHIX Photonics、Luceda Photonics 以及欧洲各大光子厂商 → 主要客户包括 $NVTS、$POWI、Lite-On → 美国商务部认定："美国唯一一家量产级碳化硅代工厂"
41. 2026/06/03 07:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.

    2026/06/03 07:50UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
42. 2026/06/01 20:01UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    -> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.

    2026/06/01 20:01UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    -> 拿下IP -> 就等CPO起飞 $SIVE 是光子学领域的激光要塞，并且已获得如下公开验证： - $GFS（据演示材料，是两家公开激光供应商之一，与 $LITE 一起供应 CPO） - $JBL（用Sivers构建的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”） - 整个公司获得的CHIPS法案资金 最高可见度方面： -> Ayar 是最大的CPO玩家，主要货源来自 $SIVE，预计2027年放量。 -> $POET 是另一个近期的CPO量产玩家，与Sivers有非常高的可见度。 开源情报梳理： $MRVL Celestial（直接，非通过Poet）、Lightmatter、Lightelligence，都是Sivers的高置信度客户。 $SIVE 还在与更多光收发器厂商进行开发和认证，紧随Jabil之后。 感觉它们会出现在每个角落。 我不确定大家是否意识到，一家市值不到20亿美元的激光公司，在2027年放量前夕获得这么多认证，有多不寻常…… 尤其当其他激光公司都在150亿到700亿美元的估值区间交易。 只需要可插拔模块来填补营收缺口，撑到2027年下半年（CPO规模化）。 然后照着 $LITE 的剧本，让每一颗卖出的激光器都更值钱，从而在两个市场中捕获更多TAM。 - 在整体光学领域，未来一年半内TAM为1410亿美元（高盛数据，10倍空间）。 - 而CPO的TAM将在未来一年半内从0增长到810亿美元。 所以，通过向下游收购IP，一夜之间就能轻松把营收机会翻倍。 更多只是等待的游戏，我认为 $SIVE 相对于未来的营收潜力，现在非常被低估。 如果它是一家硅谷的私营初创公司，今天可能值40到60亿美元。 只需要在纳斯达克上市，用溢价来弥合这个差距。
43. 2026/05/28 02:52UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.

    2026/05/28 02:52UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $MRVL 的财报对整个 CPO 主题（以及 $SIVE 作为可能的激光器供应商）来说是一个看涨信号。 - "Scale-up interconnect 代表了 AI 基础设施领域最新、最具战略意义的机遇之一。" CPO 主题直接起飞 🚀 - 确认 Celestial 被一级超大规模云服务商选中用于规模化部署。 我之前发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 权证……所以很可能是亚马逊。 - 明年的 Scale-up 光学收入应该比之前约 $1.5 亿的预期翻倍不止，这要归功于 Celestial。 远期营收增长预期直接起飞。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队简直就是"全垒打"。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长引擎，上游的 Celestial 供应商们跟着起飞。 - $MRVL 现在专注于将 Celestial 推向大规模量产。 这是放量爬坡的信号。 如果你不记得了，之前有过 OSINT 情报直接指向 $SIVE 与 Celestial 有关联，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的远期增长对 Sivers 的激光器来说就是一个放量爬坡的信号。
44. 2026/05/26 12:00UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    @Mengmengeth Well $JBL is new TAM expansion into pluggable optical transceivers. CPO with Ayar, $POET, Lightelligence, Celestial, and those players are entirely new. So having both helps $SIVE bridge the valuation gap faster.

    2026/05/26 12:00UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    @Mengmengeth 嗯，$JBL 是新进入可插拔光收发器市场，拓展了 TAM。 CPO 方面，跟 Ayar、$POET、Lightelligence、Celestial 还有那些玩家都是全新的。 所以同时拥有这两块，能帮 $SIVE 更快缩小估值差距。
45. 2026/05/25 23:42UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    $JBL literally announced in their fireside chat… Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months. $SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver. Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / sole source laser supplier. 2025 annual report, $SIVE signaled start of volume ramp with both (likely) $AEVA and $POET. This is how you do supply chain mapping on qualification cycles. Anything they make, Sivers makes revenue off lasers. If you ask AI they will keep confidently citing 2024 revenue numbers without knowing volume hints. Which is why I keep seeing these false claims like this over and over, despite Sivers being on the precipice of mass production for 2027.

    2026/05/25 23:42UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    $JBL 在他们的炉边谈话中直接宣布了…… 1.6T LRO 将在 3-10 个月内进入大规模量产，需求极其旺盛。 $SIVE 极有可能是这款特定光收发器唯一的激光器供应商。 Ayar 最近刚筹集了 5 亿美元用于产能爬坡，而 $SIVE 是其主要 / 唯一的激光器供应商。 2025 年年报中，$SIVE 暗示已开始与（很可能）$AEVA 和 $POET 一起进入产能爬坡阶段。 这才是正确的供应链追踪方式，盯着认证周期判断。 他们做的东西，只要出货，Sivers 就能从激光器上赚到钱。 你要是去问 AI，它们会自信满满地引用 2024 年的营收数据，根本不知道那些产能放量的信号。 所以我才反复看到这种错误说法，尽管 Sivers 已经站在 2027 年大规模量产的门槛上了。
46. 2026/05/25 09:08UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    Nah, I think $SIVE is still extremely undervalued relatively speaking. Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, celestial, and others all probably command $5-$15B+ valuations. Not even including small guys like $POET or pluggables like $JBL. Sivers lasers likely power them all, and they’re primary/sole source for a lot.

    2026/05/25 09:08UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    不，我觉得 $SIVE 相对而言还是被严重低估了。 Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Celestial 还有其他几家，估值大概都在 50 亿到 150 亿美元以上。 这还没算上 $POET 这样的小公司，或者 $JBL 这类可插拔模块。 Sivers 的激光器很可能给它们全都供货，而且在很多产品里是主要甚至唯一的供应商。
47. 2026/05/24 20:42UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries. I'm not sure people are fully aware yet. $SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others. Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dynamics / $NVDA self-driving architectural standards. Then you have $SIVE -> Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL, and many others for CPO/1.6T. Those go to GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell -> hyperscalers. Then there's a ton more... Like their US Gov CHIPS Act work that are secretive. Normally with stuff like $POET, it's like "hey" you have 1 customer with a $50m purchase order, we know where that's going. Not some Swedish company with a smaller valuation, going into everywhere from Space, Robotics, AI, consumer segments...

    2026/05/24 20:42UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    在做供应链梳理的时候…$SIVE 在很多前沿产业里都处于绝对关键的位置。 我感觉大家还没完全意识到这一点。 $SIVE → $AAPL、$NOK、$RTX（美国国防承包商）、$YSS（金穹）。还不包括爱立信和其他。 然后还有 $SIVE → $AEVA → Boston Dynamics / $NVDA 自动驾驶架构标准。 接着是 $SIVE → Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL，还有很多其他做 CPO/1.6T 的公司。 这些又通到 GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell → 超大规模云厂商。 还有更多…比如他们跟美国政府《芯片法案》相关的保密项目。 通常像 $POET 这种，你会说"嘿"，它有一个客户下了 $5000 万的采购订单，我们知道钱会流向哪里。 但一家瑞典公司，估值更小，却遍布太空、机器人、AI、消费电子等各个领域。
48. 2026/05/23 05:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    English · 原文

    For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.

    2026/05/23 05:41UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

    中文 · 翻译

    要让 $SIVE 成为下一个 800 亿+ 美元的 $LITE。 Sivers 是目前从传统光学转向 CPO 和 1.6T 的激光器之王。 他们基本上把激光器供应给 CPO 领域的头部玩家。 很可能是 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他做 CPO 的公司——在它们做大之前。 现在和 $JBL 这样的大玩家一起做 1.6T LRO，还有更多的测试和认证正在进行，针对可插拔模块。 他们终于解决了那个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题，市场也开始关注他们，准备在纳斯达克上市后（或者现在用股权）收购底层的 CPO 相关 IP。 并且尽可能扩大收入来源，从激光器延伸至： → 光学引擎/ELS 的价值。 → 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 当年那样——在两年内把估值从 20 亿推到 800 亿美元。 但不同的是，$LITE 靠的是 EML 和可插拔模块，而 Sivers 瞄准的是 CPO 超级周期，也就是光子学史上 TAM 扩张最快的领域。 我在关注这个故事，看他们如何实现这场大卫 vs 歌利亚式的逆袭，追上 $LITE。 这比我在意现在这点小市值的百分比变动重要多了。