SIVESiTime
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
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SIVE 整体偏多（看多 177 · 看空 1）
SIVE作为一家市值低于27亿美元的西方CPO公司，具有吸引力，是受青睐的标的。
最近发言：2026/08/26 07:38 · 信心分 7/10
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历史观点（222 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文I love how so many people requested $SIVE that Saxo Japan went out of their way to list it! Just goes to show how much demand there is for this laser company. Special shoutout to Saxo. And of course, excited for Sivers earnings + planned Nasdaq listing coming up.中文 · 翻译我特别喜欢看到这么多人要求 $SIVE，连盛宝日本都特意把它给上线了！ 这就足以说明市场对这家激光公司有多大的需求。 必须给盛宝特别点赞！当然了，也很期待 Sivers 的财报，还有他们即将进行的纳斯达克上市计划。
- English · 原文Price took a hit largely due to Boostrap Europe converting 7% of shares outstanding and selling that into the Swedish market from ~July 3rd to maybe ~August 18th completion. That happened alongside the overall AI sector drop + incorrect reports of CPO delays + short sellers with timing. There was the final 1.659M in warrants from 2 weeks ago, and looks like it got sold into market strength. That overhang is largely exhausted, so I think $SIVE will go back to normal after a catalyst (like earnings).中文 · 翻译股价下跌很大程度上是由于 Boostrap Europe 把 7% 的流通股转换出来，并在大概 7 月 3 号到可能 8 月 18 号期间卖到了瑞典市场。 这同时还赶上了整个 AI 板块的下跌，加上关于 CPO 延迟的不实报道，以及空头趁机发难。 两周前还有最后一批 165.9 万份权证，看起来也是趁着市场走强的时候被卖掉了。 这波抛售压力已经基本消化完了，所以我觉得等出现一个催化剂（比如财报）之后，$SIVE 就会恢复正常了。
- English · 原文Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.中文 · 翻译很多人都在好奇 $SIVE 两天后的财报。 我关注的点是： 1. 我希望光子学的共同开发/认证/合同方面能有更多明确信息。 → $AAOI 说有多个客户找他们要 CPO 激光器（但他们不得不拒绝了） → $MTSI 说有很多客户找他们要 CW 产能（但要
- English · 原文Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD中文 · 翻译问得好，主要还是围绕着 $SIVE 的第三方评论和实际行动。 Ayar 的举动对我来说最有说服力，他们把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从官网的供应链版块移除了。然后在激光供应商那里只提了 Sivers 一家。 Ayar 的一位副总裁还说过，Sivers 对于“驱动我们的光 I/O 解决方案至关重要”，这可是个非常强劲的信号。 然后还有 $JBL，他们在选择 Sivers 之后，做了一个 1.6T LRO，这非常少见。还在一次炉边谈话中夸耀他们的技术护城河。 接着是 $GFS，他们也选择了 Sivers 作为参考激光，并且在他们的演示文稿中重点介绍了 Sivers… 感觉所有行业领先的公司都因为某种原因在推进与 Sivers 的合作？我猜这些领先公司都做了尽职调查的。
- English · 原文@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.中文 · 翻译@adiradir734145 我觉得市场就是得让 $SIVE 这个大厨好好发挥。 从其他财报来看，大家好像都在积极地去找像 $MTSI 或 $AAOI 这样的公司谈合作。 这么看来，Sivers 很有可能会拿到一些新的认证或合作开发项目。
- English · 原文Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.中文 · 翻译大家都在玩儿命猜 $SKHY CPO 路线图的供应链，那我来凑个热闹。 我猜 SK 海力士在评估 Celestial/Ayar，并且在第一代部署后，会重点评估 microLED。 这两家公司都为此努力了一段时间了。 - Ayar 曾在 SK 海力士自己的网站上出现，涉及光纤与内存连接。 - Marvell 正在积极与 SK 海力士合作开发定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁是 Celestial 的老板）。 Celestial/Ayar 在 SK 海力士链接的《Nature》论文中也被引用，这在技术相关性上有所帮助： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光学 I/O 小芯片），Stojanovic 也是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳 Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想尽量写得简短些。 对于更上游的受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最直接的受益者，因为他们很可能同时供货给 Celestial 和 Ayar。 关于中介层/封装 IP……大家之前在猜 $POET，但 Marvell 在宣布收购 Celestial 后，今年很可能就把它垂直整合掉了。 考虑到 Marvell 在收购 Celestial 之前就已经拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如，他们在 2023 年就展示过硅光子中介层）。 -> AMS Osram（我没持有），看起来他们也在这个领域进行联合开发，因为他们今年突然特别强调 HBM <-> 光学技术会增加他们的潜在市场规模（TAM）。 总结：我把 Ayar/Celestial 看作 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLED 在第一代之后，可能会在 2029 年左右实现商业化。（这纯属个人猜测） 顺便给量子点兄弟们扔块骨头，这篇论文被引用了大概 5 次。
- English · 原文Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.中文 · 翻译非常看好。我的看法是，最近光模块板块，从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，表现这么差简直离谱。 需求确定性... 简直高得吓人。 AOI 说：“即使把 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目加在一起，未来三年（到 2029 年）也还是很难满足客户需求。” (到 2029 年) Elazr 的总经理说：“整个光模块供应链都面临严重短缺。” “短缺将持续未来几年。” Sivers 的 CEO 也说了同样的话，关于 InP 激光器需求未来 3-5 年预计会供不应求。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他公司，可以说的评论还有很多。 我们甚至还没到 1.6T、NPO、CPO 的规模化放量，以及光模块与内存结合（比如 SK Hynix 做的那些）的拐点。 然而，这个行业就已经被 EML/CW，以及所有其他上游组件，从 PDs/TIA/DSPs 到收发器卡脖子了，随着 CPO 的规模化，FAU 和其他组件很快也会成为瓶颈… 我个人非常乐意看着这一切发生，但有点搞不懂市场为什么不会提前一两年算算账。
- English · 原文@EnamelEquity Nope, all my thematic baskets were picked earlier this year with memory like $EWY and CPO like $SIVE. Only recent was kinda humanoids with $CCXI, but that's one-off. I'm just waiting for everything to play out, not a fan of jumping ship to ship.中文 · 翻译@EnamelEquity 不，我所有的主题投资组合都是今年早些时候选好的，比如内存股 $EWY 和 CPO 概念股 $SIVE。 最近唯一加仓的是人形机器人概念股 $CCXI，但那只是个一次性操作。 我就是等着看一切发展，不喜欢频繁换仓。
- English · 原文The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.中文 · 翻译从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 的走势来看，AI 半导体板块现在是下跌的。那些高贝塔值的股票，看起来跌得最惨。 从我观察过的光学股走势来看，$LITE / $COHR 回升得最快，接着是像 $AAOI / $AXTI 这种体量更大但贝塔值仍然很高的股票（恢复了一半）。 然后像 $SIVE / $POET 这类股票，恢复时间最长。但我确实看到，当市场风险偏好提升，或者财报迫使市场重新估值的时候，这些股票的反弹会更猛。
- English · 原文@ram_blings If I mention $SIVE, people say I talk about it too much If I don't mention $SIVE, people ask why it isn't mentioned I can't win中文 · 翻译@ram_blings 我要是提 $SIVE，大家就说我提太多了 我要是不提 $SIVE，大家就问为啥不提 我怎么做都不对
- English · 原文As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.中文 · 翻译至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。 我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。 也许其他主题也可以照做。
- English · 原文You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.中文 · 翻译你可以看看这些股票今年以来的表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU，我都是今年年初或去年就建仓的。 然后告诉我你是不是还那么想。
- English · 原文I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.中文 · 翻译不知道是不是我一个人的感觉，但我现在看到的 CW（连续波）需求失衡太大了（多亏了 $NVDA）。 而且这还没算上规模扩大和其他 1.6T 产能爬坡还没到来呢。然后你看 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 出现了，它们有稀缺的、独立的 CW 激光器或收发器产能…… 这通常会迫使其他主要玩家，比如 $AMD 和超大规模数据中心提供商，去关注它们。$MTSI 说他们的产能要到 2027 年下半年才开始上线，但客户已经很急地来找他们了…… CW 激光器是我现在最喜欢的一个瓶颈。
- English · 原文If I had to categorize it: $SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027? $AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections? $POET = Waiting for Customers Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.中文 · 翻译如果非要分类的话： $SIVE = 等待营收转化 大量超大规模数据中心供应商 + 对CW DFB的需求可见性高。市场会如何给这段等待期定价，或者赋予多少溢价呢？等着看2027年上半年1.6T产品到2027年下半年CPO（共同封装光学）规模化生产的进展。 $AAOI = 等待产能执行 收发器需求可见度极高。他们能把产能提升上去，达到他们每月4.71亿美元的预测吗？ $POET = 等待客户 相对于市值（MC）来说现金太多 + 供应链产能布局资金充足，需求可见性低。
- English · 原文Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.中文 · 翻译好的，这是我对 $POET 的看法，因为显然大家在 Reddit 论坛上庆祝我建了小仓位。 - 我完全不明白。真的完全不明白。他们是怎么说服股东稀释这么多股份，稀释到： 现在他们手头有大概 8.3 亿美元现金，简直离谱。 我猜他们应该差不多够了，要是还需要更多，我简直不敢相信。 所以现在… 他们有大约 8.3 亿美元可以用来发展业务，比如并购，而且最近企业价值 (EV) 跌得很低（比如 12.5 亿美元的市值，手头却有 8.3 亿美元现金），我觉得冒这个险是值得的。 - 他们的目标是到 2027 年实现每年 1200 万颗光引擎的年化产能，这个增产速度相当离谱。 我还需要研究一下 Poet 产品的平均销售价格 (ASP)，但大概是 125 到 200 美元？所以如果按 150 美元的 ASP 算，营收上限就是 18 亿美元。 但他们现在就像是反向的 $AAOI：没有明显的市场需求来填满所有产能。除了 Lumilens 之外，Lumilens 现在是备受瞩目的超
- English · 原文Sivers found a small Series B company that raised $3m last year that achieved 200-250mw per emitter apparently. $SIVE can maybe combine that with their high wavelength DFB array, and maybe make something extremely high power like eg. 8/16 × 200-250mw for high aggregate output. Program was focused on "need for higher power, more wavelengths" for CPO, so that's my guess.中文 · 翻译中文翻译生成中
- English · 原文$SIVE announces a $3.4M development program with SemiNex! For CPO, DFB laser arrays, and optical amplifiers. Early production is targeted H2 2027 (in line with early scale up CPO timelines) Seemed weird to me at first given product overlap, since SemiNex is a much smaller Series B company... But then I got reminded of a less explicit version of $SPCX + Cursor relationship (derisking by working together first). There's probably something interesting Sivers found in this company.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 宣布与 SemiNex 开展一项 340 万美元的开发计划！ 用于 CPO、DFB 激光阵列和光放大器。 早期生产目标是 2027 年下半年（与早期 CPO 规模扩大时间表一致）。 考虑到产品重叠，我一开始觉得这有点奇怪，因为 SemiNex 是一家规模小很多的 B 轮公司…… 但后来我想到这有点像 $SPCX 和 Cursor 关系的一个不那么明确的版本（通过先合作来降低风险）。 Sivers 可能在这家公司身上发现了什么有趣的东西。
- English · 原文@stockprodigyman My takeaway was that $SIVE / Win, Sumitomo, Furukawa, and other qualified CW merchant laser suppliers... Are going to become a lot more important in the near future.中文 · 翻译@stockprodigyman 我的看法是，$SIVE / Win、住友、古河以及其他合格的连续波（CW）商用激光供应商... 在不久的将来会变得越来越重要。
- English · 原文Pretty sure $SIVE had Lightmatter, Celestial, Lightelligence, and Ayar as customers way early on before. And they all ended up ~4B+ companies after starting off small. So I'm sure they know what to do with promising private company acquisitions. There's not really much distressed public companies that offer optical transceiver designs other than maybe OE Solutions I think around ~$200m, but not sure how their progress is going with 800g/1.6T pluggables.中文 · 翻译好的，这是这条推文的简体中文翻译： 我挺确定 $SIVE 之前很早就有了 Lightmatter、Celestial、Lightelligence 和 Ayar 这些客户。 而且这些公司一开始都很小，后来都发展成了估值 40 亿美元以上的公司。所以，我敢肯定他们知道怎么处理那些有前途的私有公司收购案。 目前市场上的公开上市公司中，除了 OE Solutions 之外，似乎没有太多处境艰难但又能提供光收发器设计的公司了，OE Solutions 大概估值 2 亿美元左右。但我不太确定他们在 800G/1.6T 可插拔光模块方面的进展如何。
- English · 原文- Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.中文 · 翻译- 因为新款 1.6T 光模块和 CPO 的出货量还没起来。$SIVE 正在瞄准所有下一代光学技术迭代。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署要到 2028 年才开始，你不可能在 2024 年实现九位数的营收。 - $SIVE 有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错的话，其中有四分之一到三分之一是博士。 他们很多工作都是围绕 IP，并且利用 Win Semi 和外部代工厂进行量产。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，员工数量就会急剧膨胀。 我不太明白你为什么说一个给 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是没希望的。 这可能是我见过的最独特的公司之一。
- English · 原文I said $LITE went from $3b to $60B+ over a 2-3 year timeframe, especially due from Cloud Light acquisition in late 2023, that multiplied TAM by 5x+. Since they started off in the EML laser / optical component chokepoint originally before M&A. $SIVE has the potential to do the same starting off in the CW laser chokepoint. But it does require something like a successful M&A down pluggables or optical engines/ELS. To capture more revenue off things like completed transceivers $AAOI, if they want to get to a similar scale. And my take was NASDAQ listing is necessary to unlock more funding to do so.中文 · 翻译我说的，$LITE 在两三年内从 30 亿美元涨到 600 亿美元以上，主要归功于 2023 年底对 Cloud Light 的收购，这让它的总可寻址市场 (TAM) 扩大了 5 倍以上。 因为他们在并购前，最初是从 EML 激光器/光学元件这个瓶颈环节起家的。 $SIVE 也有潜力做同样的事情，它也是从连续波 (CW) 激光器这个瓶颈环节起步的。 但它确实需要一次成功的并购，比如并购下游的可插拔模块、光引擎/ELS。 这样才能从像 $AAOI 那样的完整收发器中获取更多营收，如果他们想达到类似的规模。而我的看法是，纳斯达克上市是必要的，才能解锁更多资金来实现这一点。
- English · 原文@MaxChua16 The Serenity Awarness Fund would have bought 1/6th of $SIVE and $AAOI中文 · 翻译@MaxChua16 平静觉醒基金本来会买入 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 各六分之一的仓位。
- English · 原文Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI. There’s a pretty interesting study: Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either… - Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity) - Didn’t actively trade/overtrade (18.5% return from infrequent traders vs. 11.4%). Not any advice, but some of these anecdotes might be helpful to retail to read in general… Since I witnessed a lot capitulation off memory, photonics, or thematic volatility, just for retail not have positions on a sharp recovery. Having conviction also usually people in that “not overtrading” camp, since it helps to not overtrade in drops or see opportunities to cost average.中文 · 翻译现在市场又因为 $SIVE、OE Solutions、$LITE、Coherent 和 $AAOI 搞起了激光派对。 有一个很有趣的研究： 无论是富达（Fidelity）还是加州大学伯克利分校的一份研究论文都指出，最好的投资者是那些要么…… - 传闻中忘了自己账户的人（富达的研究） - 没有频繁交易/过度交易的人（不常交易的投资者回报率是 18.5%，而其他人的回报率是 11.4%）。 这并非任何投资建议，但这些轶事对于散户来说，总体上可能有些启发…… 因为我亲眼目睹了太多因为记忆、光子学或主题波动造成的散户割肉，结果在市场急剧反弹时手里却没仓位。 有信念的人通常也属于“不过度交易”那拨，因为这有助于他们在下跌时不乱卖，还能看到逢低买入的机会。
- English · 原文I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.中文 · 翻译我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能不能拿到更多晶圆厂产能分配的，毕竟现在连续波 DFB 短缺问题挺普遍的。 因为我很有信心，一旦通过认证并开始大规模量产，他们的产品肯定会卖脱销。 但除此之外 > 从像 $MTSI / $AAOI 这样的其他公司财报中，能再次确认供需不平衡会很有帮助。 > 上次财报中提到的与可插拔模块领域玩家的新开发/认证进展，这可能是最重要的。 > 与 $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS 的合作进展或其他机会，也许能有一些初步采购订单就更好了。 > 纳斯达克上市进展再次强调（我们已经知道计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍然把这个放在优先位置，因为它能为他们的并购提供更多资金，希望能够深化到可插拔技术栈。 我认为营收拐点大约会在 2027 年上半年出现，所以目前的营收/利润数据不太重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发布一份声明，比如“我们生产的任何东西都预计能在 2028 年售罄”之类的话，那可就太牛了。
- English · 原文@softmaxedx This is just laser array capacity modeling. The bull case is $SIVE pulling their own Cloud Light acquisition and multiplying TAM starting from the laser chokepoint. I have much higher expectations personally, but people can make their own valuation estimates. https://t.co/sS372W0SYR中文 · 翻译@softmaxedx 这只是激光阵列产能建模。 看涨的理由是 $SIVE 自己收购 Cloud Light，并从激光瓶颈开始把潜在市场（TAM）做大。 我个人期望值高得多，不过大家可以自己做估值。https://t.co/sS372W0SYR
- English · 原文Uhh I don’t want $SIVE to be acquired given how attractive their laser assets are. Since I see potential for them end up as the next $LITE. Honestly carving out OE solutions complete optical transceiver business or something similar that’s distressed from a private startup might be interesting. My guess is it comes after Nasdaq listing within next few quarters or so. I think the CEO knows what to do, so I’m just tagging along for the ride.中文 · 翻译呃，我可不希望 $SIVE 被收购，他们的激光资产实在太有吸引力了。我觉得他们有潜力成为下一个 $LITE。 说实话，如果能剥离出 OE solutions 完整的光模块业务，或者类似的、处于困境的初创公司的业务，可能会很有意思。 我猜这事儿会在纳斯达克上市后的几个季度发生。我觉得 CEO 知道该怎么做，所以我就跟着一起搭便车了。
- English · 原文For now yes, because Lumilens has a direct hyperscaler customer and multi-billion dollar purchase agreements. While $SIVE is an upstream laser supplier. Sivers needs to work its way downstream to capture more TAM with selling optical engines, ELS, or complete optical transceivers like $LITE did after M&A eg. Cloud Light. My opinion is that it’s easier to move downstream than upstream as you seen with the limited amount of qualified laser suppliers out there.中文 · 翻译目前来说是的，因为 Lumilens 有直接的超大规模客户，并且有数十亿美元的采购协议。而 $SIVE 只是上游的激光供应商。 Sivers 需要努力向下游发展，通过销售光学引擎、ELS 或完整的光收发器来获取更大的总潜在市场（TAM），就像 $LITE 在收购 Cloud Light 等公司后所做的那样。 我的看法是，向下游发展比向上游发展更容易，从市面上合格激光供应商数量有限的情况就能看出来。
- English · 原文Earlier today, optical interconnect company Lumilens "emerges from stealth" at a $5.5B valuation, after raising $700m. Just as a recap from $POET / $SIVE Linkedin OSINT mapping I shared earlier, Lumilens was supplying a top 3 hyperscaler customer. So we got confirmation of that a month later, along with the material figure that Lumilens has a "multi-billion-dollar customer agreement". And just for reference, $POET has existing contracts with Lumilens ($50m purchase order, up to $500m) + contracts with $SIVE (depending on product lines). I actually took tiny positions in POET again after reading this news, since it finally gives them visibility into extremely well funded hyperscaler suppliers (on top of Poet's really large balance sheet). But TLDR: > Lumilens around similar (or even higher) valuations as Lightmatter/Ayar, bigger than markets thought with hyperscaler customers. > nice read through upstream on $POET (derisking) / $SIVE. > Great for optical valuations in general, seeing a company go to $5.5B in 2 years.中文 · 翻译今天早些时候，光互联公司 Lumilens 在完成 7 亿美元融资后，“揭开神秘面纱”，估值高达 55 亿美元。 简单回顾一下我之前分享的关于 $POET / $SIVE 领英开源情报（OSINT）分析：Lumilens 曾为一家全球前三大超大规模云服务商供货。 所以，一个月后我们得到了证实，同时还有一个关键信息是 Lumilens 拥有一份“数十亿美元的客户协议”。 顺便提一下，$POET 与 Lumilens 已经有合作合同（一份 5000 万美元的采购订单，总额可达 5 亿美元），并且与 $SIVE 也有合同（具体取决于产品线）。 读完这条新闻后，我其实
- English · 原文$MTSI earnings transcript: "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" Emphasis on "Urgency", CW "DFB lasers", "coming to us". CW DFB names, such as like $SIVE and $LITE should be happy to hear about this laser bottleneck getting validated.中文 · 翻译$MTSI 财报电话会议实录： "客户正急切地找到我们，因为磷化铟DFB激光器普遍供应短缺。" 重点是"急切"、"CW DFB激光器"和"找到我们"。 像 $SIVE 和 $LITE 这样的 CW DFB 概念股，听到这个激光器瓶颈得到证实，应该会很高兴。
- English · 原文$LITE CEO said even as their 5 InP laser fabs come online, shipments would be 30%+ below customer demand. (and worse than the current memory shortage) $AAOI said something similiar with a 20-40% figure. My guess is that InP substrates and lasers both will be one of the most severe bottlenecks in 2027. Which is why I place a lot of value on any independent capacity that comes online whether it's $SIVE with Win or $AAOI.中文 · 翻译$LITE 的 CEO 说，即使他们的 5 个 InP 激光芯片厂投产，出货量仍将比客户需求低 30% 以上。（这比目前的内存短缺还要严重） $AAOI 也说了类似的话，提到的数字是 20-40%。 我猜 InP 衬底和激光器都将是 2027 年最严重的瓶颈之一。 这就是为什么我非常看重任何上线的新增独立产能，无论是 $SIVE 与 Win 的合作，还是 $AAOI 自己。
- English · 原文Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.中文 · 翻译只是关于 $AAOI 财报的一些太长不看笔记： - 预计在未来几周内，其超大规模客户将完成 1.6T 产品的全面认证 （有助于营收增长 #2，时间线） - 仍然相信 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心光模块生产能力 （在竞争对手可能被禁之际，重申雄心） - 预计 InP 产能设施将于 2027 年初投产 （关于进一步增长的时间线 FYI） - 总产能接近每月 20 万片/单位，到年底 800G/1.6T 产能将达到每月 65 万片/单位。到 2027 年底，将达到 93 万片/单位 （这就是我希望看到的增长） - “增加我们外部光源或 ELSFP 的制造能力。这是为了共同封装光学（CPO）。”我们预计将在今年晚些时候和 2027 年逐步提高产量，最终在 2028 年达到每月约 40 万片 （需要一些时间把这个模型化为营收） - “正如我们之前提到的，我们内部生产激光器已经很多年了。这使我们能够避免行业中其他人所面临的一些短缺” （在 CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合看涨案例） - 我们相信，未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器需求的增长 （CPO 行业的论点得到验证） - “实现我们非 GAAP 毛利率回到 40% 左右的长期目标” - “第二季度末，我们总现金等价物为 5.088 亿美元” 我需要再次核实 ATM 是否已完成。 - “我们交付营收的能力，特别是 800G 产品的能力，目前受到我们生产能力的限制。”“如果我们能生产更多，我们现在就能出货更多” 需求 > 供应得到验证。 - “大部分增加的产能将在美国。即便如此，我还是要说，就像我一直强调的，这对客户需求来说还不够。客户需求比这高出 20%-40%。” 整个光子学领域的巨大需求得到验证，对 $LITE、$SIVE / $JBL 等公司的影响令人惊叹。 - “未来两三年内不会，特别是需求如此之大。好吗？即使把 AI、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 全部加起来，未来几年也很难满足客户需求” 更多光学领域需求得到验证。 - CPO 时间线：“如果你说的是（CPO 市场）真正的高产量制造商，我会说是明年第三季度末左右”，并且“我们一直在与至少五家客户密切合作” 如果你关心目前的财报（我并没有密切关注） 营收：1.91 亿美元 vs. 1.90 亿美元 每股收益：0.06 美元 vs. 0.02 美元 太长不看：整个激光 + 光学领域需求异常旺盛。某种程度上支持了 Lumentum CEO 关于激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重的说法。 2027 年产能增长按计划进行。与时间线匹配的拐点期大约在明年年初，正如他们上次财报电话会议中提到的。 $AAOI 现在有客户了。限制在于生产足够的激光器和光模块。
- English · 原文$AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections. Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their 1.6T+ programs as well. Especially if finalized in 2026. Since there's likely going to be price hikes, and more demand concentration over capacity from the select few Western players.中文 · 翻译对我来说，$AAOI 是一个到 2027 年上半年末能实现产量大爆发的标的，因为大概在那时候，他们会达到每月 4.71 亿美元营收预期的拐点。 最近拟议的对来自 Innolight 等公司的新型光模块的禁令，也增加了 $AAOI、$SIVE / $JBL、$LITE、$COHR 这些公司在其 1.6T+ 项目上的权重。尤其是在 2026 年确定下来的话。 因为很可能会有价格上涨，而且需求会更加集中到少数几家西方供应商，超过他们的产能。
- English · 原文The unexpected thing of the week... Was $AEVA becoming a CPO/NPO optical source player. For background: $SIVE is viewed as the high confidence CW DFB laser supplier to Aeva (which is known for lidar). Today, Aeva reacted with +18.26% AH on news that they signed a JDA with an optical engine player for deployment at a major hyperscaler in H2 2027, production ramp 2028. "Optical Connectivity will leverage that foundation along with Aeva’s EXISTING high-volume manufacturing and foundry supply chain" for: - ELSFP (similar to O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE), with Sivers as the likely CW laser + potential amplifier supplier - On-chip integrated light source (likely $SIVE DFB + Aeva PIC on the architecture/integration side) TLDR: New TAM and a hyperscaler programs for Aeva for CPO/NPO, positive read through for upstream suppliers like $SIVE.中文 · 翻译这周意想不到的事... 居然是 $AEVA 成了一个 CPO/NPO 光源供应商。 先说点背景：$SIVE 被认为是 Aeva（就是做激光雷达的那个）靠谱的连续波 DFB 激光器供应商。 今天，Aeva 盘后涨了 +18.26%，因为有消息说他们和一家光引擎公司签了 JDA（联合开发协议），计划在 2027 年下半年部署到一家大型超大规模数据中心，2028 年开始量产。 引述：“光连接将利用这个基础，再加上 Aeva 现有的高产量制造和代工供应链”，用于： - ELSFP（类似于 O-Net/Enablence + $SIVE 的模式），Sivers 很有可能是连续波激光器 + 潜在的放大器供应商 - 片上集成光源（很可能是 $SIVE 的 DFB + Aeva 的 PIC，在架构/集成方面） 总之：Aeva 在 CPO/NPO 领域有了新的潜在市场（TAM）和超大规模数据中心项目，对像 $SIVE 这样的上游供应商是利好。
- English · 原文$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.中文 · 翻译$LITE 的 CEO Michael Hurlston 在 RAISE 峰会上发出警告，说用于 AI 数据中心的 InP 激光器存在供货缺口： 面临的供应链危机比内存还要严重。 Lumentum 虽然有 5 座 InP 晶圆厂，但出货量会比客户需求低 30% 以上。 这一点在 EML 激光器上今天尤其明显，但已经开始蔓延到 CW 激光器，尤其是 CPO 逐渐普及后。 我一直都看好激光器是瓶颈和关键环节，关注 $AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE 和 $COHR。很高兴这个论点开始得到验证了。
- English · 原文Thesis is more for CPO scale up expecting complexity making make MSSCorp a monopoly-type chokepoint over inspection yields (they were claiming 90% market share target). Although they can be used for other segments. $FORM ramped a lot earlier, so maybe will revenue would start to appear in next earnings? Regardless, Asian names sold off extremely hard on CPO timeline delay report that I found to be incorrect with my channel checks at the $AMD conference. Don't think my views have changed, it's moreso waiting for 2027. Names with more confirmed scale-out switch volumes like Shunsin + laser names like $AAOI / $SIVE ramp a lot earlier. It's just timelines in my view and when markets want to price that in.中文 · 翻译这个投资论点更多是针对 CPO（Co-packaged Optics，共封装光学）规模化生产，预计会因为复杂度增加，让 MSSCorp 在检测良率方面成为一种垄断性质的关键瓶颈（他们曾声称目标市场份额是 90%）。当然，他们的技术也可以用于其他细分领域。 $FORM 早就开始大规模量产了，所以营收也许会在下个财报中开始显现？ 不管怎样，亚洲相关股票因为 CPO 时间线延迟的报道遭遇了非常大的抛售，但我在 $AMD 大会上的渠道调查发现这些报道并不准确。 我不认为我的观点有所改变，更多的是在等待 2027 年。 那些已确认有更大规模出货的交换机厂商，比如 Shunsin，以及激光相关公司比如 $AAOI / $SIVE，会更早地实现产量爬坡。在我看来，这仅仅是时间线问题，以及市场何时愿意把这些因素计入股价。
- English · 原文Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So a volume orders from across $JBL to $POET, should hit in H1 2027. Which makes a bit of sense, since Sivers did raise an institutional oversubscribed round for future mass production. On a side note, can't believe it's already August and 5 months left until 2027... Which was my inflection window for glass substrates, CPO, 800v, and new architectures to ramp.中文 · 翻译现在我仔细想想，$POET 的光学中介层这块，对于 $SIVE 来说，实际比我原以为的更重要一些。 最初的说法是到 2026 年底“准备就绪”。 但 $POET 升级了措辞，表示使用 Sivers 激光器的“量产”预计在 2026 年底。 那么，来自 $JBL 的大批量订单发给 $POET，应该会在 2027 年上半年落地。这多少有点道理，因为 Sivers 确实完成了一轮机构超额认购的融资，用于未来的大规模生产。 话说回来，不敢相信都已经八月了，离 2027 年只剩 5 个月了… 那曾是我预设的玻璃基板、CPO、800V 和新架构产能爬坡的爆发期。
- English · 原文@A22GEO The $POET optical interposer piece is actually a very interesting update and talks about $SIVE. Since it's a material timeline upgrade wording for "production" EOY 2026, for Sivers + Poet. Back when Sivers did their PR it was "production readiness" https://t.co/EHkOogR39K中文 · 翻译@A22GEO $POET 的光互连芯片那部分，实际上是个非常有意思的更新，而且提到了 $SIVE。 因为对 Sivers + Poet 来说，这是把“生产”定在2026年底的一个实质性的时间线升级措辞。 回想Sivers之前发公关稿的时候，说的是“准备好生产” https://t.co/EHkOogR39K
- English · 原文US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...中文 · 翻译美国政府将持有 $GFS 1% 的股份，并根据美国《芯片法案》向他们拨款 3 亿美元。 考虑到《芯片法案》专门旨在推动 CPO（共同封装光学）和硅光子技术，这实际上是对 $SIVE / $LITE 的一个强力解读。 （供参考，在 GFS 的演示幻灯片中，Sivers 和 Lumentum 是仅有的两家被点名的上市激光供应商。Sivers 的激光阵列最近在 GlobalFoundries 的 SCALE for CPO 中被列为参考设计。） 根据美国政府公告：“GlobalFoundries 将获得最高 3 亿美元，用于将国内 CPO 研发速度加快两到三年”（NIST） 从没想过我们会看到美国政府 / $INTC 在 CPO 领域的代工合作模式……
- English · 原文@Thomus0x eh, Rosenblatt June 30 note identified AMD as the likely first $AAOI CPO customer. I wouldn't quite say they aren't remotely close. $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE just look like your top 3 right now in terms of CPO laser visibility per the recent Morgan Stanley note.中文 · 翻译@Thomus0x 哎，Rosenblatt 6 月 30 日的报告里指出，AMD 很可能是 $AAOI 的第一个 CPO 客户。所以我觉得说他们根本不沾边，那就不太对。 $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE 看起来就是目前你的前三名，这主要是在 CPO 激光能见度方面，是根据最近摩根士丹利的报告说的。
- English · 原文Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.中文 · 翻译不完全是针对 $AAOI (他们也在做CPO，只是商业化稍微落后一点)。 最近有个播客采访了 $SIVE 的CEO，名字叫“市场洞察：光子学与AI”。 最有意思的观点是： “可插拔光模块未来十年都还会存在。” 最近有很多关于CPO + RNG/MRC优化，会侵蚀可插拔光模块TAM（市场总量）的说法，但看起来可插拔还是要继续存在。 而且未来会有多种架构路径（CEO也提到，未来5年NPO和CPO一样是个重要机会）。 至于挑战：Vickram提到，制造能力和原材料供应是主要瓶颈。可能指的是上游连续波（CW）激光器产能爬坡现有的
- English · 原文Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.中文 · 翻译主要内容是高管们对 CPO（共同封装光学）这个主题的评论。涉及到 $AMD、超大规模数据中心的采纳情况以及时间表。 调研结果对 CPO 板块来说非常积极，要知道这块之前还因为延迟的消息下跌了。 而且对这个领域的 $SIVE 也很积极，因为他们是 Ayar 和 $GFS 的激光供应商，这两家都和 $AMD 可能的 CPO 路线有联系。 但没能直接从供应商那里得到确认，因为这是保密的。
- English · 原文@gaetan_po Yeah, I’m testing some things right now for bot prevention. Also going to $AMD event tomorrow rather than full 2 days, will definitely be asking about $SIVE!中文 · 翻译@gaetan_po 嗯，我正在测试一些防机器人措施。 还有，明天我去 $AMD 的活动，不是完整两天都去，我肯定会问关于 $SIVE 的！
- English · 原文It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.中文 · 翻译这事儿其实更复杂一些。简单来说，$AMD 的旧金山活动就在明天，周三/周四（7 月 22、23 日）。 根据 Jefferies 的客户报告，$AMD 预计会披露更多关于他们可能的大规模 CPO（共同封装光学）路线图 + MI500 的信息。 如果他们确认走 CPO 路线，那从主题上来说是利好，因为它表明不只是 $NVDA 在推动这一转变。 至于 $SIVE，如果他们直接进入 $AMD 的供应链，我们就能了解得更清楚。 因为目前，我们有可能通过 $GFS（据报道参与了 $AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 $AYAR（$AMD 投资的公司）来推断，但还没有官方确认。 所以如果你正在关注： - CPO 主题积极面：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光学 UALink。 - $AMD 透露 MI500 CPO 将使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE：考虑到 $SIVE 是上游激光供应商/参考激光，这对于 $SIVE 来说将是极其积极的。 目前，Jefferies 的 Blayne Curtis 预计 $AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，并与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节在这里： “我们正在关注 $AMD 是否承诺采用基于 CPO 的扩展解决方案，以及谁将提供光学引擎。” 我们将在周三/周四获得更广泛的供应链信息，今天下结论还为时过早。
- English · 原文Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?中文 · 翻译铠侠系的存储股今天猛涨了17.18%。三星也涨了6.15%。 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 这些光网络股都在展现复苏迹象，全部涨了4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的 Neoclouds 概念股，盘前全部涨了4%以上。 从 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL，这些股都涨了4%以上。 难道克拉默效应要对整个AI概念股都起作用了吗？
- English · 原文If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins). And they’re a $8B MC… Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins. And that’s a $1B MC. Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably. Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble. Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.中文 · 翻译如果 $AAOI 预计到 2027 年第三季度，每季度能做到 14 亿美元（相当于每月 4.71 亿美元），那年化收入就是 56 亿美元（目标 GAAP 毛利率超 40%）。 而他们现在市值才 80 亿美元…… 或者，如果我个人预测的 $SIVE CW Win 产能，能带来大约 4 亿美元左右的营收（基于 60% 毛利率）。 而它现在市值才 10 亿美元。 光是给这些光器件公司一个 20 倍的远期市盈率，估值可能都会大幅重估。 即使是像 $LITE 这样的公司，未来两年订单都排满了，有这种需求可见度…… 这根本就不是泡沫。 欧洲人倾向于用过去 12 个月的业绩来估值，但光器件公司是 2027-2028 年的增长故事。
- English · 原文Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.中文 · 翻译同意！在市场崩盘时还能坚守自己的投资理论，感觉真好。 从我个人投资理论来看，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年第三季度初达到 14 亿美元的季度营收。这相当于 80 亿美元市值下，年化营收达到 56 亿美元。 如果到 2026 年，这种营收的快速增长还没体现在季度财报中……那这家公司就算“完了”吗？ 这同样适用于我在 CPO（协同封装光学）板块的持仓，比如 $SIVE，这是由 $NVDA 引领的架构转变。 如果从 2026 年下半年到 2027 年，横向扩展（scale out）
- English · 原文I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.中文 · 翻译不确定你知不知道，但整个 AI 板块现在都在普跌。像三星这样市值万亿美元的公司，这个月都跌了 -26%。$MRVL 也跌了 -31%。所以那些高贝塔的股票，跌起来幅度就更大，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这种，跌幅能到 50%。但反弹起来也更剧烈，比如 $AEHR 财报后一天就涨了 50%。
- English · 原文Morgan Stanley listed $SIVE as the three core CPO laser players alongside $LITE and $COHR in their note 3 days ago. Fidelity Research, JP Morgan and others have started to take active positions. They recently raised an oversubscribed institutional round at 57 SEK. This is all ahead of US NASDAQ listing. I personally see short term liquidity disconnects relative to forward revenue around now and I'm sure institutions are capitalizing on it.中文 · 翻译摩根士丹利三天前在他们的研报中，将 $SIVE 跟 $LITE 和 $COHR 一起，列为三大核心 CPO 激光供应商。 富达研究、摩根大通等机构已经开始积极建仓。他们最近以 57 瑞典克朗的定价完成了一轮超额认购的机构融资。 而所有这些，都发生在美国纳斯达克上市之前。 我个人认为，目前短期流动性与未来营收之间存在脱节，而且我确信机构正在利用这一点。
- English · 原文I think people tend to forget that $LITE went from a $3B valuation to $60B+ in 2 years time from owning the EML chokepoint. This was before the 9x TAM expansion to ~$154B per GS by H2 2028. $SIVE has the opportunity to dominate the next CW chokepoint with 1.6T and CPO. And it's sitting at ~$1.1B now.中文 · 翻译我觉得大家好像忘了，$LITE 曾因为掌握了EML这个关键环节，在短短两年内市值就从30亿美元一路飙升到600多亿美元。 这还是在高盛 (GS) 预测的，到2028年下半年总潜在市场 (TAM) 将达到约1540亿美元，实现9倍增长之前发生的事。 $SIVE 有机会凭借1.6T和CPO技术，主导下一个CW（连续波）的关键环节。 而它现在市值才大约11亿美元。
- English · 原文Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.中文 · 翻译很多人都好奇 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi + 其他）产能扩张的模型是怎样的： 如果以 Win Semi 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端分配（假设良率 65%，平均售价 $50-$75）， Sivers 每年能支持 $3.41 亿到 $5.12 亿的阵列收入。鉴于管理层设定的 50-60%+ 毛利率目标上限，这大概会是： 每年 $2.05 亿到 $3.07 亿的毛利润。 对比 Sivers 目前约 $11 亿的市值，如果这个产能场景在 2028 年实现，大概是： 市销率/毛利润倍数在 3.6-5.4 倍。 如果分配比例达到 15%，毛利润将是 $3.07 亿到 $4.61 亿（市销率/毛利润倍数在 2.4-3.6 倍）。 Sivers CEO 也回复说他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以扩大产能。从一份旧的演示文稿来看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的认证。 所以随着 CPO 的兴起，产能目标可能比这里提到的还要大。 我还预计未来几个季度收入管道预测会调高，因为会有更多通过认证的供应商进入高量产阶段。 _ 至于需求侧，CW 也非常受限。 Lumentum 为了履行 EML 义务，正在从公开市场购买 CW，这从他们的财报电话会议记录中可见一斑。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议以确保 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET、O-NET 等公司合作扩大产能时…… 考虑到目前的限制，任何独立通过认证并投入使用的产能都很可能会被吸收。 锦上添花的是，Morgan Stanley 在他们最近的报告中将 $SIVE（约 $11 亿）列为三家领先的 CPO 激光器供应商之一。 与市值 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，这并非没有道理…… _ 总结：Sivers 只需要从 Win Semi 获得少量产能分配，就能实现相对于当前估值而言可观的毛收入。 我认为，如果他们在美国纳斯达克上市后通过 M&A 扩大总可寻址市场（TAM），那将是最大的收入增长潜力，目前尚未被模型纳入。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的策略，构建完整的收发器模块或光引擎。
- English · 原文I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.中文 · 翻译我个人觉得，现在 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 的估值简直蠢透了。 以 $AAOI 为例，到明年年中，它的年化营收能达到 $5.62B（甚至可能更高），而市值却有 $8B。 就 Sivers 而言，我估计如果按照 10% 的中标率、65% 的利润率以及 $75 的平均售价来算，它 2028 年的远期市盈率大概会接近 5 倍。
- English · 原文Feels like algos often miss $SIVE, after slight $LITE / optical sector recovery after CPI print. Especially bc it's trading on some random Swedish exchange, but catches up on random days. That being said it's definitely on institutional radar, especially since MS put it next to $LITE and $COHR as the three leading CPO laser companies yesterday. Just waiting for things to play out, stocks don't move in a straight line up every day.中文 · 翻译感觉算法（algo）经常错过 $SIVE，尤其是 CPI 数据公布后，光模块（optical sector）/ $LITE 板块略有复苏。部分原因它在某个瑞典的随机交易所交易，但总能在某些日子里补涨。 话虽如此，它肯定在机构的关注范围内，特别是摩根士丹利昨天把它和 $LITE、$COHR 并列，称之为三家领先的 CPO 激光公司。 就等事情发展吧，股票不可能每天都一直涨。
- English · 原文TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.中文 · 翻译一句话总结一下 Innolight 投资者关系会议的要点： 1. “总的来说，1.6T 市场需求没有萎缩；反而，800G 需求比之前的预期大幅增长。” 可能整体最重要的一个要点就是 800G 需求预测的上修（也包括更长期的需求）。这对 $AAOI、$COHR、$LITE 等美国光模块制造商是利好消息。 很多新客户，比如新兴云服务商、AI 模型公司，都在为整体需求做贡献，而不仅仅是超大规模数据中心厂商，
- English · 原文$AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And fits the OSINT research done with Ayar removing Macom from their website. So would agree with MS that $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR imo are the three leaders to focus on for lasers.中文 · 翻译$AAOI的营收主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但还没有CPO设计订单。 像$MTSI这样的其他公司，似乎因为某种原因在CPO激光器领域掉队了。 CEO说商业化时间“待定”，目前正在进行可靠性测试。这也和开源情报（OSINT）研究吻合，Ayar把Macom从他们网站上撤掉了。 所以我同意MS的看法，$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR在我看来，是激光器领域最值得关注的三大龙头。
- English · 原文@siflower It’s architecture neutral. UHP output can be achieved with a single cw laser or multi emitter cw dfb array which is what $SIVE is doing for CPO. Since the latter aggregate output is comparable.中文 · 翻译@siflower 这不挑架构。超高功率输出嘛，单个连续波激光器或者多发射器连续波DFB阵列都能搞定， $SIVE 给 CPO 用的就是后面这种。 因为两者总的输出功率差不多。
- English · 原文Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.中文 · 翻译关于 $AMZN 的 RNG + OpenAI 的 MRC 以及 VCSELs。 这看起来像是对 B. Riley 针对 $AAOI 的卖出报告的间接回应，报告中提到了“网络扁平化并削减 40-50% 的收发器总潜在市场 (TAM)”的优化措施。 Rosenblatt 的一句话总结：他们已经把这个因素考虑进模型了，即使每个 XPU 可能使用的收发器数量会减少。 XPU 的数量增长如此之快，以至于光器件的总需求仍然应该会上升。 关于 CPO 的激光器架构：VCSELs 作为 NPO/短距离传输的可靠过渡方案很有用。 不过，CPO 的理想架构是 UHP CW，优于其他激光器，他们引用了 Broadcom 的相关声明。这恰好支持了我对 $SIVE 的核心论点。 我觉得 Rosenblatt 和我在很多事情上观点一致，我喜欢他们的风格。
- English · 原文@2147gp Yep I'm very excited for the $SIVE US listing. Majority of people can't access it on small Swedish exchanges.中文 · 翻译@2147gp 没错，我很期待 $SIVE 能在美国上市。大多数人没法在瑞典那些小交易所买到它。
- English · 原文I blocked them since they're known for spreading disinformation. Especially after it was exposed around their short seller activity, that there were marketing accounts telling people to sell. These accounts had histories of promoting the same Asian crypto launches. - They spread defamation like saying I used AI to fabricate reports on CW laser LTAs from $AMD, despite the report coming directly from Trendforce. Then they tried to hide references to the actual source after they were proven wrong. - I didn't sell a good chunk of my $SIVE position, I own 1M+ shares (not USD) as one of the largest individual shareholders. Don't see a reason to exit my position since I'm trying to own as much as possible before 1.6T pluggables and CPO architectural inflections hit. Better not to give malicious accounts additional views.中文 · 翻译我把他们拉黑了，因为他们是出了名的造谣机器。 尤其是在他们的做空活动被曝光之后，就有很多营销账号叫大家卖出。这些账号都有推广同一个亚洲加密货币项目的历史。 - 他们散布诽谤，说我用 AI 伪造了关于 $AMD CW 激光 LTA 的报告，尽管那份报告是直接来自 Trendforce 的。 然后他们被证明是错的之后，还想藏匿真正来源的引用。 - 我没有卖掉我大部分的 $SIVE 仓位，我持有超过 100 万股（不是美元），是最大的个人股东之一。 我没看到任何理由要卖出，因为在 1.6 万亿美元的可插拔光模块和 CPO 架构拐点到来之前，我正努力持有尽可能多的股票。 最好不要给那些恶意账号增加曝光。
- English · 原文Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.中文 · 翻译没错，看到散户认输挺有意思的。 彭博社关于Meta算力的那篇文章，在他们内部备忘录澄清之后， 还有那两份关于延迟的报道，也被英伟达否认了。 这两件事本来就是导致这次抛售的原因…… 所以，光子学/英伟达的路线图并没有根本性改变：
- English · 原文$SIVE US NASDAQ listing is more for: - Fundraising (most important thing) to acquire IP + TAM expansion and make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did (eg. Cloud Light acquisition) from just selling lasers. - Also it helps bridge valuation gaps, since I see it as undervalued relative to laser peers that are all in the tens of billions. Rather than near term revenue/partnerships.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 在美国纳斯达克上市更多是为了： - 融资（最重要的一点），用于收购知识产权 + 扩大潜在市场，让他们卖出的每台激光器都更有价值。这和 $LITE 以前的做法类似（比如收购 Cloud Light），它也是从单纯卖激光器起步的。 - 另外，这也有助于弥补估值差距，因为我觉得它相对于那些市值都是数百亿美元的激光同行来说，是被低估了。 而不是为了短期的收入或合作。
- English · 原文@Goodly2016 I just the algo gods just missed $SIVE after $LITE and the laser names pulled a recovery.中文 · 翻译@Goodly2016 感觉算法大神们刚刚错过 $SIVE，毕竟 $LITE 和那些激光相关股都反弹了。
- English · 原文I currently hold shares in the million range, so not quite sure what’s with these accusations. Since I believe $SIVE is one of the most important laser companies in the next optical shift… and has immense TAM expansion potential with IP acquisition. Nasdaq listing is coming up… volume ramp is coming up… I think I’m fine and know what I’m holding中文 · 翻译我目前持有的股票数量在百万级别，所以不太明白这些指责是哪来的。 因为我相信 $SIVE 会是下一次光学技术变革中最重要的激光公司之一… 而且通过收购知识产权（IP），其潜在市场（TAM）还有巨大的扩张空间。 纳斯达克上市快要来了… 交易量即将放大… 我觉得我心里有数，知道自己持有的是什么股票。
- English · 原文Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.中文 · 翻译这么说吧： 散户觉得跌个 30-60% 就是“飞刀”，套牢的人永远翻不了身。 然后他们看到那些波浪线技术分析，还有人把有价值的咽喉要道公司跟那些梗股相提并论，结果就恐慌性抛售了。 我把这看作是长期持有以下资产的机会： - 下一个超大规模数据中心供应商，$NBIS，预计第四季度年化收入达到 70-90 亿美元 - 拥有 40% 的磷化铟供应链份额，$AXTI - 下一个光通信技术变革的领导者，$SIVE，拥有连续波DFB激光器 - 美国人形机器人领域的领导者，$CCXI，未来万亿级主题的核心 诸如此类……而且估值更便宜。 虽然我可能会通过降低保证金或对冲我的投资组合来做些调整，但如果投资逻辑没变，我个人在股票下跌时并不会恐慌。 非投资建议，显然这也取决于大家的投资时间框架： 因为对那些靠投资支付房租或学费的人来说，一次暴跌可能会改变他们的人生。（这也是为什么我个人认为其他人应该做自己的尽职调查，并根据自己的风险承受能力选择长期持有的股票） 但我个人的目标是在下一代超级周期到来之前，尽可能多地布局。 我觉得机构也是这么想的，这也是为什么在整个过程中会有很多诱导性波动，以最大化他们的仓位。 如果投资逻辑最终被证实是正确的，那么估值长期来看也会体现出来。
- English · 原文For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables. - $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more. O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say. Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources. And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028. How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is: It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked). For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out. The main area of interest is downstream IP acquisition for TAM expansion, so I think that opportunity pipeline undersells forward growth going forward.中文 · 翻译对于$SIVE这种布局，最好是看看他们的合作伙伴和时间线。 - $JBL 在摩根大通的炉边谈话中确认，他们凭借 1.6T LRO 拥有相对显著的护城河，并且在接下来的 1-4 个月内（这是两个月前说的）完成资质认证。所以，资质认证完成的时间点应该在 2026 年 8 月到 2027 年 3 月之间，然后 Sivers 的产品就可以在可插拔模块中大规模量产了。 - $AEVA 的目标是大概在 2026 年第四季度开始大规模制造 (HVM)，而 $POET 将在 2026 年下半年开始生产，但可能上半年晚些时候就会有更多进展。 我认为 O-Net、Ayar、$GFS 和其他公司大概会在 2027 年左右，那更多是 CPO 的时间线，而不是严格意义上的 $SIVE。 对执行力很有信心，因为 $SIVE 在许多不同的超大规模供应商渠道中都拥有技术和资质认证的
- English · 原文This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip: If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known... If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart. -> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where it heads. When it's primarily Samsung/SK Hynix and forward operating income growth from DRAM/NAND. -> The swiggly drawing over $SIVE, $AEHR, and others mean nothing. When it's primarily hyperscaler suppliers, thematic premiums, and volume ramp orders determining valuations. Then if something randomly goes from $1 to $60 like $AXTI, they claim they spotted it with their "Golden Egg Dragon Candle", while ignoring anything with InP substrate and otpical demand. There's rare times like these where it's a massive sector drop all together. But now the TA bros are showing up everywhere saying here's a $40 course on how they predicted it with swiggly lines.中文 · 翻译这就是那种一般的画图技术分析派，干的就是五五开的抛硬币活儿： 如果走势反了，他们就说“ABC形态失效了”，早该知道的…… 如果他们抛对了，他们就会推广自己每月收费 $40 的图表。 -> 在 KOSPI 指数上画那些弯弯曲曲的线，
- English · 原文$SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion. And it's literally trading less than $POET for some reason. All while CW lasers are extremely bottlenecked to the point $LITE can't make enough. Then they got a considerable amount of oversubscribed funding for fabless laser ramp recently. Comfortable long for me, probably one of the stocks that way overshot selloff imo.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 应该是我目前最喜欢的股票了，短期下跌我一点不担心。 - 他们是 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模数据中心供应商的激光供应商。 - 计划在未来几个季度在纳斯达克上市 - 之后的目标是通过并购拓展市场规模（TAM）。 而且不知道为什么，它目前的交易价格竟然比 $POET 还低。与此同时，连续波（CW）激光器产能严重瓶颈，连 $LITE 都供不应求。 最近他们又为无晶圆厂激光器产能扩张获得了可观的超额认购资金。 对我来说，这是一个安心长期持有的标的，在我看来，它很可能是那批被过度抛售的股票之一。
- English · 原文Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.中文 · 翻译就随便说一下我的看法： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 这些股票，还有其他一些，都跟着一起崩盘…… 这些今天目前为止跌幅都在 -4% 到 -10% 以上。 那这可能就和个股基本面没什么关系了。 像瀑布式保证金清算这类原因导致的无差别抛售，如果标的公司基本面在改善的话，通常会带来非常不错的机会。
- English · 原文I have large concentration in $SIVE to $AAOI as well. Feels bad to suffer drawdowns from institutional photonics delay bear posts. Just for the same firm to include it in their ETFs at the bottom. NFA, but I’m especially confident about those two going forward despite the drop中文 · 翻译我在 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 上仓位也很重。 因为机构那些唱空光通信延迟的帖子，导致回撤，真是让人不爽。 结果到头来，同一家机构却在底部把它们加进自己的 ETF 里。 非财务建议，但尽管现在跌了，我还是对这两只股票的未来特别有信心。
- English · 原文I’m just reiterating fundamentals and nuanced details. But I don’t control what others do or how markets ultimately react. Nobody’s right 100% of the time and could always be wrong. But I do have conviction I’m correct directionally with $SIVE. Which is why I have money on the line and remain personally long.中文 · 翻译我只是在重申基本面和一些细节。但我左右不了别人怎么做，也控制不了市场最终会怎么反应。 没人能百分百正确，总有可能出错。 但我对 $SIVE 的方向判断有信心，觉得我是对的。这也是为什么我把钱投了进去，而且我个人也一直持有多头。
- English · 原文No, it’s the same if not higher. Markets are closed and if there’s no new developments, then I have nothing new to add. $SIVE is personally one of my largest holdings and I’ve posted all my thoughts on their hyperscaler supplier relationships. So I’m just waiting for volume ramps and company execution and ignoring a lot of noise. The convertible notes is not new information and was likely priced in for awhile. Having it executed now is not a positive thing like others are framing, since Bootstrap Europe is a venture debt fund. There’s likely instituonal swaps happening given oversubscribed instituonal demand around these levels. $140m is not a big amount in terms of institutional flows.中文 · 翻译不，情况一样，甚至可能更高。市场休市，要是没啥新进展，我就没啥可补充的了。 $SIVE 个人来说是我最大的持仓之一，我已经把所有关于他们与超大规模客户供应商关系的想法都发出来了。所以我只是在等放量和公司执行力，然后忽略掉很多噪音。 可转债这事儿不是什么新消息，很可能早就被市场消化了。像其他人说的那样，现在执行可转债并不是什么好事，因为 Bootstrap Europe 是一家风险债务基金。 考虑到这些价位机构需求超额认购，很可能有一些机构间的换手交易。就机构资金流而言，$140m 算不上是个大数目。
- English · 原文@ontrialperiod when global and US markets crash off misinformation and out of context quotes from $META. I probably want to clear that up? That thing said, $AAOI, $SIVE, and $CCXI do make up large concentration in my portfolio.中文 · 翻译@ontrialperiod 当全球和美国市场因为 $META 的错误信息和断章取义的言论而暴跌时。我大概想澄清一下？ 话虽如此，$AAOI、$SIVE 和 $CCXI 确实在我投资组合中占了很大比重。
- English · 原文Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable players, potentially Eoptolink/Innolight mass producing pluggables with $SIVE as lasers is revenue. 6. $POET entering volume production is revenue.中文 · 翻译你是不是傻？ 1. $JBL 量产 1.6T LRO 就是营收。 2. O-Net 量产 ELS 就是营收。 3. $GFS 给超大规模数据中心用 $SIVE 作为参考激光器，就是营收。 4. Ayar 加入 $NVDA 的 NVLink 做 CPO，并用 $SIVE 进行量产，就是营收。 5. 其他可插拔模块厂商，可能是 Eoptolink/Innolight，量产以 $SIVE 作为激光器的可插拔模块，就是营收。 6. $POET 进入量产就是营收。
- English · 原文Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell. $SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs. With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term. Then $GFS, Ayar, and many other players are volume ramping later in 2027. Sivers also confirmed intent to complete NASDAQ Listing in the next few quarters. It's probably my highest conviction photonics long, everything seems to be coming into place.中文 · 翻译没人应该关注技术分析图，那些只是人们凭空画些弯弯扭扭的线，试图说服别人卖出。 $SIVE 刚刚紧急募资 7000 万美元用于大规模生产，很可能是为了从晶圆厂获得配额。 $JBL、$POET、$AEVA 和其他公司短期内都将迎来产量爬坡。 然后 $GFS、Ayar 以及许多其他玩家将在 2027 年晚些时候迎来产量爬坡。 Sivers 还确认了在未来几个季度完成纳斯达克上市的意向。 这可能是我最有信心的光子学多头股，一切似乎都正在到位。
- English · 原文@ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days. They're also capable of doing the opposite. Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.中文 · 翻译@ram_blings 不客气，我不太确定大家是不是还记得，不过 $SIVE 曾因为 $GFS 的消息，一天就涨了 70%。 $AAOI 也会时不时地单日暴涨 20-30%。 当然，它们也能反向波动，跌这么多。 光电板块波动性确实很大，但从长远来看，它们的大方向还是跟着基本面走的。
- English · 原文Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks). Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up. Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS. Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back. But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out. Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.中文 · 翻译光子技术是有实实在在的营收数据支撑的，而且这是 $NVDA 大力推动的架构转型。 量子技术则几乎没什么营收。 根据 $POET 股东大会的消息，$LITE 未来两年（可能从2029年开始）的产品已经完全售罄。Lumentum 的产能非常紧张，甚至要从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（财报电话会议记录里提到了）。 $COHR 则卡在瓶颈上，所以他们向 Lumentum 购买 EML。 接着，$AAOI 正带着“美国制造”的独立连续波产能入局，他们预计到2027年上半年，季度营收将达到14亿美元，要知道它今天市值才93亿美元，简直太低了。 所以，现在像 $AAOI 或 $SIVE 这样拥有独立连续波产能的厂商，他们的产能很可能会变成稀缺资源。 很多其他超大规模数据中心厂商已经开始谈长期供货协议（来自 Trendforce 的消息）。而像 $AMD 这样的公司，目前正在和 $AAOI 等厂商洽谈（Rosenblatt 的渠道调研显示）。 从主题上看，根据 GS（高盛）的报告，未来两年市场总规模（TAM）将增长9倍，达到1540亿美元，特别是在横向扩展/纵向扩展方面，每美元内容投入将分别增加16倍/45倍。 然后还有来自 $META 的关于 AI 的整体主题性下跌，这被很多人误解了，因为大家混淆了“过剩产能”的真正含义。而且正如 UBS（瑞银）提到的，Meta 计划提供云服务并不是什么新鲜事。 彭博社就是有这种倾向，喜欢发布导致半导体行业全面暴跌的消息，就像几个月前关于英伟达出口管制的那次。 但我很清楚自己持有的是什么，所以我对这些数据会实现很有信心。 尤其是在所有主要玩家都产能售罄的情况下，基本面终究会追上来的。
- English · 原文Where did I ever say that? Majority of my portfolio is concentrated in photonics with names like $SIVE and $AAOI. However, I’m allowed to talk about other exciting developments as well… Such as the first listed US humanoid player? I still think CPO/optics has the fastest TAM ramp out of any industry, just a bit early since I’m projecting revenue inflection really hits ~H2 2027. I’m personally down a lot past few weeks, but I’m convinced my thesis with laser chokepoints and others plays out.中文 · 翻译我什么时候说过那种话了？我的大部分投资组合都集中在光子学领域，比如 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 这些票。 不过，我也被允许聊聊其他激动人心的发展啊…… 比如美国第一个上市的人形机器人公司？ 我仍然觉得 CPO/光学在所有行业里 TAM（总潜在市场）增长最快，只是现在有点早，因为我预计营收拐点大概在 2027 年下半年才会真正出现。 我个人过去几周亏了不少，但我坚信我关于激光瓶颈和其他方面的判断会奏效。
- English · 原文@alGix0 I’m not concerned with short term volatility, which is expected with high-beta photonics and current macro. I’m long on $SIVE to see my thesis play out with laser volume ramp. Dilution could be a short term factor, but I see the development as positive long term中文 · 翻译@alGix0 短期的波动我倒不担心，高贝塔的光电子公司嘛，加上现在的宏观环境，波动很正常。 我做多 $SIVE，就是想看我的激光出货量随着我的投资逻辑逐步兑现。 短期稀释可能是一个因素，但我认为从长期来看，公司的发展是积极的。
- English · 原文$SIVE: "Intent to complete the [NASDAQ] listing process over the next few quarters" This statement was largely missed by many screeners. Very material improvement from evaluation, to formal confirmation of timelines. https://t.co/iOceCgJTG4中文 · 翻译$SIVE：“打算在未来几个季度内完成【纳斯达克】上市流程。” 很多人在筛选时都错过了这句话。 这代表了从“评估”到“正式确认时间表”的非常重大的进展。https://t.co/iOceCgJTG4
- English · 原文$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership. My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors. This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GFS on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support. Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment). A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 正在筹集约 6100 万美元（6 亿瑞典克朗），用于扩大 InP 激光器和光放大器的制造产能。 Sivers 采用的是轻晶圆厂模式，所以这很可能预示着 Jabil 和其其他合作伙伴将分配/扩大用于连续波 DFB 激光器生产的代工产能。 这也可能指向在已公布的 WIN 合作之外，更广泛的代工分配/产能扩大。 我的反馈是，如果投资者都是长期机构，并且没有大幅折价（30 天 VWAP），那这就是非常看涨的消息。否则，就需要重新评估是否存在套利或短期投资者。 现在是引入像 $GFS 这样的理想战略投资者进入资本结构的最佳时机。同时也要专注于争取更多美国机构的支持。 尤其考虑到 5600 万美元对于一家想要投资光子学领域的美国机构来说只是一笔小数目（例如，看看 Poet 的 4 亿美元注册直接发行，就能了解市场情绪）。 很多都“取决于更多信息何时公布”，但考虑到 Siver 的轻晶圆厂模式，这似乎是量产的一个非常积极的信号。
- English · 原文Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source. This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp. - Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years. Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT) - $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals). - "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components." Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks. - "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year." Just production timelines H2. In terms of $POET volumes: - existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year - projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month - roughly 10x capacity expansion I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive. However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable. But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.中文 · 翻译只是关于 $POET 股东大会的一些笔记，以及对光学市场的一些解读： - "排名前三的激光器供应商控制了 68% 的市场，而且他们未来两年的产能已经全部售罄" $LITE 的 CEO 说的是到 2028 年，所以 POET 等于变相确认了激光器短缺会持续到 2029 年。 - 与一个新客户签订了 NRE（一次性工程费）协议，基于 POET 的中介层用于高功率外部光源。 考虑到 2025 年 9 月 29 日关于 ELS 的新闻稿，这很可能是 $SIVE 作为激光器供应商，如果进入量产爬坡，这个新客户的认证将对营收产生实质影响。 - POET 预计与 Lumilens 的商业协议在未来 5 年内规模将超过 5 亿美元。 Lumilens 声称一家排名前三的超大规模客户是他们的初始客户（通过 LinkedIn 开源情报）。 - 资产负债表上有 8.3 亿美元现金（这更偏向 POET 的基本面）。 - "整个光学元件行业目前正面临关键元器件的严重短缺。" 再次印证了我们已知的光学瓶颈问题。 - "2026 年下半年开始量产爬坡。" 只是 H2（下半年）的生产时间表。 关于 $POET 的产量： - 现有产能约为每年 100 万个光学引擎 - 预计到 2027 年底的需求约为每月 100 万个光学引擎 - 大约需要扩大 10 倍产能 我不持有 Poet，但如果管理层能兑现这些预测，方向上看是非常积极的。 不过有一点需要注意的是，与其他有明确超大规模客户来支撑产能收入的供应商（如 $AAOI）不同，$POET 似乎更值得怀疑。 但如果他们能实现这些预测，这对 $POET 来说确实是一个非常积极的展望。
- English · 原文$SIVE is has a decent chance to be in Boston Dynamics humanoid programs through $AEVA and LG Innotek. I don’t see it being too material to revenue near term since the leading humanoid companies have only made ~10K so far. But if you get to the millions in past 2028, it’s probably material to revenue中文 · 翻译$SIVE 有相当大的机会通过 $AEVA 和 LG Innotek 进入波士顿动力的人形机器人项目。 短期内我觉得这对营收影响不会太大，因为头部人形机器人公司到目前为止才造了大约 1 万台。 但如果你到 2028 年之后达到百万台级别，那可能就对营收有实质贡献了。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe ニュースが発表された時、誰がすぐに恩恵を受けるのかを考えるようにしているんです。 $SPCXによるMeshの買収後、初期のスタートアップと協業してきた実績を考えると $SIVE が恩恵を受けそうだなと思いました。 フォロワー2万人達成、おめでとうございます！中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 我一直在考虑，新闻发布时谁能够立刻受益。 $SPCX 收购 Mesh 之后，考虑到与早期初创公司合作的经验，我觉得 $SIVE 可能会受益。 恭喜达成 2 万粉丝！
- English · 原文$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET? Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so. Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell. For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already). As well as valuations from M&A desirability. Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.中文 · 翻译$SPCX / 埃隆·马斯克收购了光网络初创公司 Mesh。 这家公司正在研发 1.6T OSFP（可插拔模块）。 看起来他们掌握光学引擎/封装技术，但很可能会从外部供应商那里采购 CW DFB 激光器。 $SIVE 是其中一家对初创公司比较友好的潜在商业供应商，就像 Ayar 与 $POET 的合作那样？ 也许 $LITE 和 $MTSI 也有一点历史渊源，但可能性小一些。 不管怎样，最近很多初创公司（比如 Celestial）被 Marvell 收购，这是非常积极的信号。 对商业激光器供应商的收入来说（与初创公司合作 → 被设计进去后，像 SpaceX 这样的超大规模客户会带来收入）。 对并购带来的估值也有好处。 这也说明，如果埃隆·马斯克直接买下这些公司，光互连就是正确的方向。
- English · 原文They never did. $SIVE dropped the employee incentive program from the meeting agenda, think you're confusing the two. NASDAQ listing just takes time and still in the process. The shareholder meeting passed the authorization for share issuance, which is needed for dual listing liquidity. The resolution for the new board members was also needed. They're just crossing off the checklist.中文 · 翻译他们从来没这么做。$SIVE 把员工激励计划从会议议程里撤掉了，我觉得你搞混了这两件事。 纳斯达克上市只是需要时间，还在走流程。 股东大会通过了股份发行授权，这是为了双上市流动性做准备。 新董事的决议案也是必须的。他们就是在逐项打勾完成清单。
- English · 原文Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential. In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE: - $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers - $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE - $AMD went to $GFS for CPO - $SIVE announced CW with TFLN - Ayar (using $SIVE) raised a bunch for volume ramp and joined $NVDA NVLink ecosystem - AlChip private placement with Amazon, which is Ayar's primary ASIC partner (hinting at Trainium wins) - O-Net new ELS partnership with $SIVE for mass production - $POET new purchase order with a customer that stated their initial clients is a "top-3 hyperscaper" - New CHIPS Act nondilutive funding - "LIDAR customer will ramp production starting Q4 2026," which is likely $AEVA - New information discovery likely linking $SIVE customer to $MRVL Celestial (not through Poet), Lightelligence, and Lightelligence. - New information discovery about Ayar removing Lumentum / Macom from website and likely making Sivers primary source - More pluggable players on top of $JBL. - $NVDA bottlenecking CW laser supply and $AMD + other CSPs going around signing LTAs - NASDAQ listing planned And more.中文 · 翻译倒也不是，我个人还是觉得它被低估了。关键是看市值和未来营收潜力的对比。 就在这么短的时间内，关于 $SIVE 就有： - $JBL 宣布与 Sivers 合作，推出 1.6T LRO。 - $GFS 发布了与 $SIVE 相关的参考激光器公告。 - $AMD 转而向 $GFS 寻求 CPO（封装光学）。 - $SIVE 宣布与 TFLN 合作推出 CW（连续波）。 - Ayar（使用 $SIVE 的技术）获得了大量融资以扩大生产，并加入了 $NVDA 的 NVLink 生态系统。
- English · 原文OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.中文 · 翻译我当然知道。但我个人睡得挺安稳，因为我对自己的超大规模数据中心映射研究有底气，而且持有 $SIVE。 没错，我还是拿着那一百多万股的头寸。 不知道大家有没有意识到：我来这里就是分享我的想法和观点。 我控制不了市场波动，也管不了你们怎么做决定，更左右不了市场对新信息整合的反应。 对分析师来说，最安全的做法就是摩根士丹利/摩根大通/高盛一出报告就跟着附和，然后总结一下。 而不是自己从开源情报（OSINT）映射里琢磨新想法，再等它们被验证。 因为当你发现一个新角度时： 每个人都在激烈争论 4-6 英寸磷化铟晶圆厂、员工数量、他们的超大规模客户是谁、产能爬坡时间线等等，就为了跟你唱反调。 然后还要时刻盯着每一个 5%-20% 的价格波动。 我不得不更频繁地讨论这个标的，因为它还没被充分验证，而且总是有激烈的争论。就像 2 月的 $EWY，我当时做了内存预测，还分析了氦气/液化天然气/石油。 但几个月后，大家看到内存结构变得稳固（美光签了 16 份以上的长期协议），液化天然气也没把 SK 海力士的利润打下来。 还有去年的 $NBIS，当时在谈分部估值/摊薄结构 vs $IREN。 现在它接近历史新高，还进了 $QQQ 指数。 我本人只是在等 Sivers 在 2027 年产能爬坡，并在纳斯达克上市来支持他们的并购活动。 这样他们就能走 $LITE 当年的路——从 30 亿美元市值涨到 600 亿美元以上。
- English · 原文@JClaydog Yeah sad to see. I'm personally very confident in $SIVE / $AAOI to revenue ramp with lasers in 2027 so I'm sleeping easy.中文 · 翻译@JClaydog 是啊，看着挺难过的。 我个人对 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 在 2027 年靠激光业务实现营收增长非常有信心，所以晚上睡得挺安稳的。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe Nice! Ill check out the specs now for $JBL + $SIVE https://t.co/psjeaFVx8f中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 不错！我现在去查查 $JBL 和 $SIVE 的规格参数 https://t.co/psjeaFVx8f
- English · 原文@dpkim19 Quote from $SIVE earnings transcript: "50% to 60%+ gross margins once we are firmly and predominantly product revenue driven." https://t.co/2NpjbQIyZC中文 · 翻译@dpkim19 引用 $SIVE 财报电话会议纪要："一旦我们坚定且主要依靠产品收入驱动，毛利率将达 50% 到 60% 以上。" https://t.co/2NpjbQIyZC
- English · 原文@aa11231ggagaa44 Do you mean InP fab? I'm not sure why people are trying to compare InP fabs, $SIVE is not mass producing lasers in-house. They're using Win Semi and foundries, Sivers is a fabless designer so they don't need capex. They do have a fab for development.中文 · 翻译@aa11231ggagaa44 你指的是 InP 晶圆厂吧？我不太明白为什么大家老拿 InP 晶圆厂来比——$SIVE 自己并没有大规模生产激光器。 他们用的是 Win Semi 和代工厂，Sivers 是一家无晶圆厂设计公司，所以不需要资本开支。 他们的确有一个用于研发的小型晶圆厂。
- English · 原文oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.中文 · 翻译哦，我觉得你误会了……随着价格下跌，我反而比以往任何时候都更看好。 $SIVE 市值大约 19 亿美元，它有： - $GFS 的参考激光器 - 为 Ayar 及其他 $NVDA NVLink 生态系统中的 CPO 扩容提供激光器 - 为 $POET 及其他公司提供 CPO 规模扩展 - 为 $JBL 及其他公司提供 1.6T+ 可插拔光收发器 - O-Net 提供 ELS 大规模生产 所以，所有这些超大规模数据中心供应商都想尽可能多地生产，而 Sivers 是激光器的瓶颈…… 这只是 Win Semi 和其他合作伙伴能生产多少的问题，$SIVE 能获得大约 60% 的毛利率，还有向下拓展潜在市场（TAM）的选择权。 瑞典媒体一直在唱衰的最近 15% 股票增发，是为了纳斯达克上市流通股和并购（以及授权）。 你只是看到潜在的做空者在运营非法机器人农场，瑞典媒体对一家瑞典上市公司唱衰，再加上整体宏观下跌。 那笔大约 1.4 亿美元的可转债确实存在，但对美国机构来说只是九牛一毛。等数据出来后，我们可能会看到更多的机构持仓。 但这也就是为什么 $SIVE 优先考虑在纳斯达克上市是件好事，这样他们就不用处理这些噪音和当地媒体了。 $AAOI 市值 100 亿美元，它有： - 一家端到端（美国）的激光/设计/组装公司，预计在 2027 年下半年进入上半年，营收将达到 4.71 亿美元。 - 据说还有像 $AMD 这样的其他超大规模数据中心公司正在讨论长期协议（LTAs）。 而且他们在进行了大约 14 亿美元的 ATM（4 亿 + 4 亿 + 6 亿）后，可能手头现金充裕。 只要管理层不瞎扯，有了那些惊人的营收预测，差不多就够了。 这让我想起了去年 $NBIS 跌到 70 美元的时候，即使当时它预计年度经常性收入（ARR）有 70-90 亿美元，随着时间线临近，它又恢复到 250 多美元。感觉像是似曾相识。 我只是在等待两者的销量都能放量。光子学通常比其他行业波动更大。
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO. With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO. If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens. Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)中文 · 翻译Poet OSINT 社群挖到的新有趣线索： 看起来 $POET / $SIVE 很可能要拿下全球前三的云巨头之一（亚马逊、微软、谷歌中的一家）。 线索来自 Lumilens 的 CEO Ankur Singla 在 LinkedIn 上的一则更新。 他说他们的客户就是前三的云巨头之一，而且那条帖子的重点是 CPO/NPO。 顺着这条线索，考虑到 PoET 用的是 CPO Scale Out/NPO，Sivers 的连续波 DFB 光源方案比其它 EML 供应商的可能性更大。 如果你忘了提一下：Sivers 是 Poet 的激光光源供应商。而 Poet 和 Lumilens 之间有采购协议。 在官方确认之前，能从公开信息里挖到这种潜在的大线索，总是很有意思。（披露：做多 Sivers）
- English · 原文OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.中文 · 翻译每次看OpenLight（未上市），感觉它规模越来越大了。 如果你好奇他们在Advantest之外的公开生态系统： $JBL（$SIVE的合作伙伴）负责扩大PIC规模 $MRVL和$MXL负责DSP $TSEM负责晶圆代工。 $300394.SZ / TFC Optical（封测/组件组装） 如果你不是合格投资者，往往能通过公开股票间接参与未上市公司的成长。 毕竟光学玩家之间的关联度非常高。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths with Aeva. Apple likely using Sivers also reiterated from the newer webpage: “Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring. They just can’t namedrop partners due to confidentiality, but consumer sensing is probably the biggest tell. Physical AI and mass consumer production with Apple would be very material to revenue.中文 · 翻译$SIVE + Aeva 大概率是从今天的新 PR 里推断出来的，以及 $SIVE + Apple。 关于 Sivers 激光器为机器人 / 具身 AI 提供动力。 → Sivers 激光器通过 LG Innotek 为波士顿动力 Atlas 提供动力，用于机器人领域 → Nvidia Hyperion 生态系统中搭载 Sivers 激光器，用于具身 AI。 这些都是与 Aeva 可能展开的路径。 Apple 也很有可能使用 Sivers，这在较新的网页上得到了重申： “用于可穿戴设备的光学传感模块”——来自生物识别与健康监测。 他们只是出于保密原因不能直接点名合作伙伴，但消费级传感大概是最明显的信号。 具身 AI 加上与 Apple 的大规模消费级生产，对营收来说会是非常实质性的推动。
- English · 原文@TradingTh3Trend This is likely just a PR to support $SIVE + $AAPL relationships to combat false short seller claims the relationship was terminated. They've likely been working with Apple for quite some time, not really entering the market.中文 · 翻译@TradingTh3Trend 这很可能只是用来支持 $SIVE 和 $AAPL 关系的一则公关稿，目的是反击空头散播的“合作关系已终止”的假消息。 他们和苹果应该已经合作了相当一段时间了，并不是刚进入这个市场。
- English · 原文@jeongpark0509 No price target, but I like to keep in mind: $LITE went from 2.88B MC in 2024, to $67B MC in 2026. Just took 2 years and $SIVE is around the same starting point as Lumentum today.中文 · 翻译@jeongpark0509 没给目标价，但我心里记得： $LITE 从 2024 年的 28.8 亿市值，涨到 2026 年的 670 亿市值。 也就花了两年，而 $SIVE 今天的起点跟 Lumentum 当初差不多。
- English · 原文@eldan_0123 @CreatorNim Don’t think so. $JBL + $SIVE was known from OFC conference in person. But it took an official PR for markets to know. If there any release over the more higher confidence mapping to $NVDA cpo ecosystem, I’d expect it to rerate a lot more中文 · 翻译@eldan_0123 @CreatorNim 不觉得。$JBL + $SIVE 是从 OFC 现场会议里得知的。 但市场要等官方 PR 出来才知道。 如果后续有发布跟 $NVDA CPO 生态更确定的相关消息，我预计它会重新定价不少。
- English · 原文That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.中文 · 翻译这是一种误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光供应商，不仅仅是 CPO 规模化的配套。 可插拔、规模化 CPO（Scale out CPO）、Scale up CPO、NPO 等等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 联手开挂，用 CW 激光器开发出了 1.6T 光收发器。 有效绕开了 EML 瓶颈，甚至还提升了能效。 从 Jabil 管理层的说法来看，他们打造了一个"相对显著的护城河"。 所以在下一代 1.6T 可插拔收发器上，Sivers 看起来立刻就会被用上。 市场也忽略了这一细节：Jabil 发布公告后，其他可插拔厂商也找上门了，SIVE 现在正在跟他们合作（很可能是联合开发、认证阶段）。 没有太多做光收发器的厂商是像 Lumentum 那样垂直整合的（想想：Innolight/eoptolink 之类的）。 所以这些都是在推进中的开发项目，只是还没公开披露，随时可能出新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的规模化 CPO，比如 $POET 这类玩家，$SIVE 是它们的激光供应商。 - Scale up CPO 则是在 2027 年下半年，来自 Ayar 和英伟达的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，那才是光器件玩家们的主要放量阶段。 但这时候，从供应链图谱来看，$SIVE 看起来碾压了其他所有对手。 因为他们很可能从很久以前就开始跟 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等公司一起研发设计，那时这些公司还很小。 而且还有像这样的： 对于 $GFS 这类代工厂来说，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 这还没算上 O-Net 这样的大公司正在用 $SIVE 构建 ELS，很可能是面向亚洲超大规模数据中心供应链的。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器隘口长线标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，新的光架构里到处都有他们的影子。
- English · 原文I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.中文 · 翻译最近好多人在问我 OE Solutions (138080) 这家公司。 这是我目前的研究和想法： 这是一家韩国的小型光收发器公司，跟 $AAOI 有点像。 而且他们已经成为全球为数不多的 EML 玩家之一（比如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），手握稀缺的 100G EML 激光器产能，专门用于 800G/1.6T。 OE 看起来不光想造 EML，还想做完整的收发器。他们已经有了成品 ELSFP CPO 产品，配上 UHP CW 激光器，Q3 开始送样。 同样地，OE 似乎也在整完整的 ELSFP 方案，而不是只卖 CW 激光晶粒，这样能抢到更多市场份额。 所以你可以把它理解成"韩国版的 AAOI"，但用的是 EML 而不是 CW，产能和认证方面还差点火候，目前是在追赶世界其他玩家。 时间线上来看： 1. 23dBm 制冷的 ELSFP 样品，2026 年 Q3 开始送样 2. 800G 的销售基础，2027 年 1.6T "全面发力" 3. 2027 年 H2 末、2028 年 H1 及以后，ELSFP 可能进入放量生产 而且从他们 2025 年投资者简报片段来看，似乎还在搞 200G EML 能力——简报里提到"100GBaud EML / 200G PAM"。考虑到他们的 IP 和 demo，这个方向挺有戏。 ELS 才刚发布不久，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器大概率也是 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的光子学国家队，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和那些更大的玩家。 （持仓披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 仓位。这只是基本面研究，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。） 关于 OE Solutions 的估值： 1. 这些增长方向目前似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人真正理解他们在做什么。 3. 良率数据有些不清晰。 1. 客户方面：现在其实正处于 EML/CW 激光器大缺货周期，所以任何独立的产能都会被抢着要。我个人觉得他们找客户不难。我甚至认为他们造出来的东西可能都会被扫货，还会获得韩国政府的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为市值小 + 韩国上市，很多美国机构根本够不上门槛。我也觉得没多少人真正理解他们在搞什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 公布的晶圆/模组利用率很低（我记得大概有 31% 的产能闲置），所以他们在需要砸资本开支之前，光靠现有的产能就能产生可观的收入。 至于 EML/CW 以及其他良率，我也不太确定。可能得直接去问公司。 这是不是一家随便的烂公司？不是。人家做光收发器已经超过 20 年了，在美国和荷兰都有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长方向看起来要到明年才爆发，而且主要取决于产能和良率。 我个人觉得，如果 EML/CW 技术被收购的话，它的价值可能远超目前市值。 尤其是被那些想垂直整合 EML（用于可插拔模块）和 CW 激光器（用于 CPO）的大玩家收购。 市场可能在等 Q3 送样后的认证结果或者营收预期公告，才敢下定论。 总结我的想法： 去年就有朋友讨论过这家公司，当时可能太早了。两个月前看到评论区热闹起来，依然太早。 我现在还是觉得早，但到了 Q3 和 Q4 可能就会变得有意思起来。我个人认为它的风险比 $SIVE 这种深度嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和一堆超大规模供应商的 CPO 大玩家要高得多。$SIVE 还有 Win Semi 等公司在帮忙摊薄量产风险。 而 OE Solutions 看起来更像是一个新手玩家，想照着 $AAOI 的模式去造光收发器，但走的又是主权 EML 和 CW 激光器路线，面向 CPO 产品。 现在关于客户和量产爬坡的问题还有很多没解答，这本身就有实质风险。 但如果你相信韩国能建立 800G/1.6T 收发器 EML 供应链，以及带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP 方案。 那么 OE Solutions 或许值得一看。我还在继续研究这家公司，目前只是初步想法。
- English · 原文In terms of personal notes: 1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co. 2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent. 3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio. ~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth. Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing. 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488). MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV. 5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related. But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors. 6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous. So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name. I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth. Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there. So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently. I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.中文 · 翻译个人笔记： 1. Priortech 持有 $CAMT 21% 的股份，大概是他们市值的 1.35 倍，看起来更像是一家控股公司。 2. Bit Digital 的人一直在喊，但 NAV 折价并不干净 $WYFI，稀释严重 + 不是 AI 母公司。 3. Wistron (3231) 是我自 $SIVE 以来见过最棒的，加上 Ayar 和 Wiwynn 是我最喜欢的三巨头。 ~$162 亿市值，第一季度营收同比增长 144%，高得离谱。 持有 Wiwynn 35.46% 的股份，大约是市值的 0.66 倍。我预计 Wiwynn 会继续增长。 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 持有 GlobalWafers (6488) 46.64% 的股份。 市值 $35 亿，持股价值约 $79 亿，不过它自身增长不算太快，虽然相对于 NAV 折价交易严重。 5. Iljin Holdings 持有 Iljin Electric 42.99% 的股份，市值约 $2.2 亿，NAV 持仓约 $11.3 亿。这是跟变压器/电缆数据中心相关的。 但话说回来，我不确定能不能相信韩国股票会实现 NAV 折价修复，可能更适合激进投资者。 6. Simmtech Holdings 市值约 $1.7 亿，而母公司约 $10 亿，这看起来也很离谱。 所以是 6 倍多的 NAV。PCB 基板相关的名字。这又是个可能不太信韩国治理风格的名字。 我觉得 $ACMR 和 WUS 很快都会有 H 股子公司上市，这些是最大的 NAV 折价且能独立增长的标的。 然后有个非常成功的激进投资者在追 WUS，所以我估计会有些折中方案。 所以也许我会在周一现有持仓基础上，再集中加仓这些，再看看吧。而且 Wistron 自身增长非常快。 我还在做研究，通常这算是洗澡时的胡思乱想，因为我还没正式下结论，但觉得别人可能会感兴趣。
- English · 原文非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！ 总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。 又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。 而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！ 不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.中文 · 翻译Trendforce 报道说 $AMD 正在积极争取 CW 激光供应，下了好几笔大采购订单…… 这可能只是瓶颈的开始吧？ 西方供应链中，除了 $SIVE 和 $AAOI，可能还有 Macom 之外，已经没多少独立的产能了。 尤其是在 Lumentum/Coherent 和英伟达签了好几年协议，产能都被锁住之后。（披露：持有 Sive 和 aaoi） Lumentum 的 CW 激光供应已经很紧张了，根据财报我猜他们可能正在从住友/古河电工这类日本公司那里采购，而这些公司大概也已经满负荷运转了。 根据 Trendforce 的报告，这是： “为了确保其未来的产能不会受到英伟达和其他主要云服务提供商（CSP）的限制。” 如果亚马逊、微软等其他超大规模企业看到英伟达/AMD 签署了长期协议，然后也开始争取产能，我一点也不会感到惊讶。 很大程度上这是一种博弈论，为了不被竞争对手卡脖子，看起来英伟达之后，AMD 正在推倒第一块多米诺骨牌。 但我的看法是，这恰好说明了 CW 激光这个“瓶颈”有多么宝贵，以及处于这个瓶颈中的公司有多重要。
- English · 原文@00000sol0 True, headline difference: Serenity Research takes a stake in $SIVE, what a big deal! "Serenity" took a stake in $SIVE, must be a retail meme.中文 · 翻译@00000sol0 对，标题的差别： Serenity Research 入股了 $SIVE，多大的事儿啊！ "Serenity" 入股了 $SIVE，肯定是散户的 meme。
- English · 原文Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to chip for 1.6T+ - HVDC deployment on track, 800VDC incremental volume 2027, with higher penetration in 2028. What a stupid CPO related selloff recently.中文 · 翻译瑞穗研究：CPO 或 800V 直流电没有延迟。 由于 $NVDA 需求爬坡，上调了光学引擎预估。 - CPO 的下一阶段是长期方向，他们认为 InP DFB 激光器仍然是重点（你好啊 $SIVE）。VSCEL 和 microLED 在 1.6T+ 的机架内短距离 + 芯片到芯片场景中仍然"未经证实"。 - HVDC 部署按计划进行，800V 直流电增量产出在 2027 年，2028 年渗透率更高。 最近这波跟 CPO 有关的抛售真是蠢到家了。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe Yep, I would not be surprised if $AMD signed LTAs with $SIVE given the new Trendforce report that they're going around trying to secure CW laser capacity.中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 是的，如果 $AMD 因为 TrendForce 那份新报告、四处寻求锁定 CW 激光产能，而跟 $SIVE 签下长期协议的话，我一点都不会意外。
- English · 原文@aletir99 When has US investors ever cared about what people in Sweden think? I still think $SIVE has the potential to be the next $75B $LITE if they follow the same M&A route after NASDAQ Listing.中文 · 翻译@aletir99 美国投资者什么时候在乎过瑞典人怎么想了？ 我仍然觉得 $SIVE 有潜力成为下一个 750 亿美元的 $LITE，只要他们上了纳斯达克之后走同样的并购路线。
- English · 原文Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.中文 · 翻译回顾一下2025年那些天马行空的想法，挺有意思的。 那个时候，$AAOI市值20亿美元，$LITE市值260亿美元，$AXTI市值5亿美元。 现在： - AAOI市值153.7亿美元 - Lumentum市值744.7亿美元 - AXT市值72.4亿美元 当时信息更少，毕竟还是个早期主题。 当然，随着更多细节浮出水面，ASIC项目的一些细微差别可能被我忽略了。 但方向上看，很高兴我的主题思路最终是正确的。 看着现在市值30亿美元的光学多头标的，比如$SIVE，感觉就像是既视感。
- English · 原文Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.中文 · 翻译反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
- English · 原文New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.中文 · 翻译最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。 并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息） 明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。 也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。 我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。 这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
- English · 原文Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.中文 · 翻译Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。 然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。 每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。 再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。 甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。 现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。 一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
- English · 原文$SIVE is likely laser ramping with $AEVA soon and $AAPL with their next refresh of Apple Watches after their recent announcement. Haven’t seen anything credible to disprove that. There’s some people without technical depth conflating TASC sensors with future Apple Watches using lasers, and don’t understand NRE volumes can carry forward years too. AI DCs for photonics are $SIVE main focus though, anything else like Apple is a cherry on top.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 很可能很快就要和 $AEVA 一起激光爬坡，加上 $AAPL 最近宣布之后的下一次 Apple Watch 更新。 目前还没看到任何可靠信息能反驳这一点。 有些缺乏技术深度的人把 TASC 传感器和未来的激光版 Apple Watch 混为一谈，也不明白 NRE 量产能延续多年。 不过 AI 数据中心的光电子才是 $SIVE 的主要方向，像 Apple 这类业务只是锦上添花。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
- English · 原文@NicoRicci01 Nothing? Just waiting for $SIVE general meeting to happen.中文 · 翻译@NicoRicci01 没啥动静？就在等 $SIVE 的股东大会召开。
- English · 原文@hisarchive lol I’m super bullish on my $SIVE position too. > EU macro positive > $LITE + laser group up 4-6% overnight trading from InP bottleneck easing > possible Nasdaq listing timeline announcement today We’ll see what happens.中文 · 翻译@hisarchive 哈哈，我对我的 $SIVE 头寸也超级看好。 > 欧盟宏观面利好 > $LITE 加上激光板块，隔夜交易涨了 4-6%，原因是 InP 瓶颈缓解 > 今天可能会宣布纳斯达克上市时间表 我们等着瞧吧。
- English · 原文This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.中文 · 翻译这肯定要让很多人不高兴了： 但技术分析（TA）对交易者来说，就是占星术。 它就是个确认偏误，再加上利用人们入场交易时的心理。 有点像当初人们在 $SPCX IPO 时抢跑 $SPCE，就是料到散户会因为交易心理搞混股票代码。 $SIVE 涨了
- English · 原文@KingDavidvs It’s for Nasdaq listing liquidity requirements and M&A, very positive since I want to see $SIVE trade on US markets.中文 · 翻译@KingDavidvs 这是为了满足纳斯达克上市的流动性要求和并购，非常积极，因为我希望看到 $SIVE 在美国市场交易。
- English · 原文@JaaidevV I personally like $SIVE, usually the same names keep on compounding like $SNDK if they’re important to AI? I’m not selling a share, since it looks like we’re only at the start of the next supercycle.中文 · 翻译@JaaidevV 我个人看好 $SIVE，通常那些名字会像 $SNDK 一样持续复利增长，如果它们对 AI 很重要的话？ 我一股都不会卖，因为我们看起来才刚进入下一个超级周期的起点。
- English · 原文@uberlag Wow it’s cool to see $SIVE on CNBC now! I’m surprised it’s up there lol中文 · 翻译@uberlag 哇，现在看到 $SIVE 上 CNBC 了，挺酷的！有点意外它能上去哈 lol
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文I like $SIVE中文 · 翻译我喜欢 $SIVE
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译基本就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户入场早，完全抢先了机构，抓住了下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在你看到摩根大通、富达研究部等一些活跃机构都出现在了股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生了同样的事。 > 我
- English · 原文Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i中文 · 翻译高兴看到光学板块的股票，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，都在按照应有的节奏小幅回升。 一开始的那波下跌简直是无厘头。https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
- English · 原文@veggiepoultry That’s correct with $SIVE and Blackrock after MSCI/nasdaq. Blackrock is passive and tracks sivers based on MC. Fidelity Research is their active investment arm, so that’s not passive.中文 · 翻译@veggiepoultry 对的，$SIVE 和 Blackrock 在纳入 MSCI/纳斯达克之后就是这样。Blackrock 是被动型基金，按市值跟踪 Sivers。 Fidelity Research 是他们主动投资的部门，所以那不是被动型。
- English · 原文Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.中文 · 翻译对，贝莱德在指数上市后，已经以被动持有者的身份建仓了 $SIVE。 富达研究也现身了，开始直接持有 Sivers 的头寸。 还记得上个月摩根大通带着小仓位出现吗…… 然后买了公司大约 5.25% 的股份？ 看起来像是美国机构认可了 Sivers 在光子学领域的地位，正在试图积累仓位。
- English · 原文I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583中文 · 翻译我并不觉得 $AAOI、$LITE 或 $SIVE 那边的 photonics 会很快消失… 只是波动实在太大了。 不管怎样，好奇大家今天在买什么？https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
- English · 原文@TalentActivity I do really like $GFS, $JBL, and others tied with $SIVE. They’re all just kinda large by now, and less chance to triple. If I were running a hedge fund I’d pick up Jabil, it I’m personally maximizing returns + don’t like options on higher IV equities.中文 · 翻译@TalentActivity 我确实很喜欢 $GFS、$JBL，还有跟 $SIVE 有关的其他标的。 不过它们现在体量都不小了，翻三倍的机会没那么大。 如果我是在管对冲基金，我会买 Jabil，但个人角度我在追求收益最大化，而且不喜欢做高波动率股票的期权。
- English · 原文A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE: Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace). This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication. The bigger implication is not the contract size: But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial). Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract. Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers... This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)中文 · 翻译$SIVE 今天迎来了一个巨大的催化剂： Sivers 宣布开始获得面向太空应用（allspace）的 820 万美元批量订单。 这是用于驱动太空 LEO/多轨道卫星通信的波束赋形 IC。 更重要的不是合同金额本身—— 而是 Sivers 现在通过 allspace 的收购，为 $YSS 旗下更大的国防主承包商提供支持（类似于 $MRVL 与 Celestial 的设计导入）。 这对 Sivers 来说，往往意味着后续会有更多追加订单 + 批量合同，而不仅仅只是这一份。 原来 Sivers 在光子学 AI 数据中心激光器之外，同时也是太空 / 国防供应链中的一个关键瓶颈（赶在 SpaceX IPO 之前）... 除了这次胜利，我还期待他们光子学这边很快也会有更多批量爬坡（说的就是 Jabil 和其他可插拔模块厂商）。
- English · 原文Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)中文 · 翻译随便瞎想：$JBL 看起来是个挺有吸引力的长期标的，市值 $380 亿。 我不太觉得市场已经把他们在 1.6T LRO 可插拔收发器业务上的潜力算进去了。 特别是如果问题的关键是 "以 $SIVE 为瓶颈的 2027 年上半年，你能赚多少"，而不是 "需求够不够大"。 他们已经铺好了庞大的供应链……而且接手了 $INTC 的可插拔产线。 相比 $AAOI 靠融资砸钱建激光晶圆厂，这套模式似乎更可规模化——只要你手里有 $SIVE，再加上一堆不同的晶圆厂（比如 Win Semi 和其他）一起量产激光器，剩下的交给 $JBL 搞定。 那你等于白捡了一个类似 Innolight 的架构（还带美国溢价），而且已经有一条经过超大规模客户验证的供应链。 我现在没持仓，只是抛个想法，供别人去做研究。 大概 2027 年上半年大家才会开始反应过来。可能 40% 的重新定价听起来合理？ （目前没有任何持仓，纯粹是个想法）
- English · 原文@LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.中文 · 翻译@LightLogix 我的意思是…… > $SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器 > $SIVE 提供 1.6T LRO 激光方案，配合 $JBL 以及众多可插拔厂商 > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > 很可能是 $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial 搭配 $NVDA NVLink > 大概率 $SIVE 也会进入 $AMD 的 CPO 生态系统 这是个非常吸引人的做多逻辑。
- English · 原文@_king142 It's primarily just new news of US institutional accumulation of 5%+ of the company. Whether it's JPM asset management or hedge funds using JPM, since US retail doesn't have access to synthetic exposure to $SIVE.中文 · 翻译@_king142 主要就是有美国机构累积持仓这家公司 5% 以上的新闻。 不管是摩根大通资管还是用摩根大通的对冲基金，因为美国散户接触不到 $SIVE 的合成敞口。
- English · 原文I think the implications of JP Morgan's disclosure of buying 5.25%+ of $SIVE is a lot greater than people think. > $135M is pennies to US institutions. They can easily acquire 25% with their capital. They're just constrained by the amount of float that's available from retail to buy. > Signals to other institutions that other large institutions are buying up the float. Which triggers more institutional interest. > Given float is heavily shorted by Swedish Hedge Funds and random algorithmic ones. If large US institutions like JP Morgan are starting to buying the float, it's a blaring signal to start and cover. Of course, most of all, this is validating thesis of giving ideas to retail first to frontrun the institutions + the next CPO supercycle.中文 · 翻译我觉得摩根大通披露买入了$SIVE 5.25%以上股份，这件事的影响远比大家想的要大。 > 1.35亿美元对美国机构来说就是毛毛雨。他们手里的资本，轻轻松松就能拿下25%。 只是被市场上散户能卖出的流通量给限制住了。 > 这等于向其他机构释放信号：有大型机构正在扫货流通盘。 然后就会引发更多机构的兴趣。 > 考虑到这股的流通盘被瑞典对冲基金和一些量化策略基金大举做空。 如果像摩根大通这样的大型美国机构开始买入流通股，那就是一个明确的信号——该回补了。 当然，最重要的是，这验证了我们先给散户提供思路、让他们抢在机构前面布局的逻辑，再加上即将到来的 CPO 超级周期。
- English · 原文Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers. Just in the last month alone. First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers. https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM中文 · 翻译$SIVE 在摩根大通（机构）买了 5%+ 持股权的消息下只涨 3.36%，挺意外的。 光过去一个月内。 这是 Sivers 流通股被大机构买入的首个重要信号。https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM
- English · 原文On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx中文 · 翻译关键点：$NVDA 的CEO还特别提到了硅光子（光网络）与存储结合。 并表示英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对于硅光子供应链来说，从$SIVE（如今已是英伟达上游生态系统的一部分）到$SOI，是一个多么看好的信号啊。 https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
- English · 原文Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.中文 · 翻译不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键看结构。 如果你是在做一笔 $6 亿的 ATM 融资，用来建激光器晶圆产能，在 2027 年上半年每个月 4.71 亿美元（较低市值区间）的节奏下跟 $AAOI 合作，那这就是增厚型的。 如果你是为了满足纳斯达克上市要求，用 $SIVE 稀释 15%，然后把募集资金拿去做并购，那也是增厚型的。 如果你跟 $IQE 一起稀释，通过跟 $MTSI 做私募来清掉过去的有毒债务，那也是增厚型的。 但如果你是像 $IREN 那样，一次稀释 $60 亿，然后大概率趁 $SLNH / $BKKT 的托们每次拉升时把这些股抛到公开市场上——而这些小散里多数最后都归零了——那这就是掠夺性的。
- English · 原文If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized). I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name. So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.中文 · 翻译如果你好奇的话： $4649 对应 107,894,491（超过 1 亿！）次曝光。 所有这些钱都会用于救助流浪狗，之后会做大额捐赠！ 大概是每救一只狗 $600，所以这个数额会随着 Serenity 粉丝数的增长等比扩大。 我也相信我应该靠投资 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 在股市赚钱，而不是从粉丝身上赚钱。 尤其是我自己觉得投资水平还够。 所以我从来觉得没必要设高门槛付费或者做付费广告。（就算不赚钱我也会这么干）。 能靠每天发发观点玩玩就帮到我在意的事，我很开心。 而且我最近看到很多粉丝以我的名义向本地收容所捐款。 所以真心谢谢你们，这让我很满足。
- English · 原文@Camilogicly Exactly why I keep telling Swedish hedge funds not to go short on $SIVE. Since buying the entire Sivers float is spare change to US institutions and hyperscalers. Especially given their role in photonics.中文 · 翻译@Camilogicly 我一直在跟瑞典的对冲基金说，别做空 $SIVE，就是这个原因。 因为对美国的机构和超大规模数据中心来说，把整个 Sivers 的流通盘买下来不过是零钱。 更何况他们还在光电子领域有战略地位。
- English · 原文@SEONHYE1101 Yes in the sense that US institutions are trying to buy up $SIVE. No in the sense that I’m not sure how JP Morgan to buy 5%+ of $SIVE as a company. Maybe enough retail investors capitulated and transferred their shares to institutions.中文 · 翻译@SEONHYE1101 是的，从美国机构正在试图买入 $SIVE 这个角度来看。 不是的，从我不确定摩根大通是怎么买入 $SIVE 公司 5% 以上股份这个角度来看。 也许是足够多的散户投资者投降了，把他们的股票转给了机构。
- English · 原文Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional). JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month to 5%+ ownership this month…中文 · 翻译唉。 我一直跟散户还有瑞典那帮对冲基金说，$SIVE 对 CPO 有多重要，可没人听。 散户持仓被洗掉了一大堆，结果现在摩根大通趁机买了一大笔 Sivers 的股份（全是机构资金）。 摩根大通从上个月持股 0.4%，直接干到这个月 5% 以上……
- English · 原文@Ailisatlx @zGwmby "Eric Andersson chose to end his employment during the month of May." The founding co-manager of that hedge fund quitting is probably a big sign their firms is going under from $SIVE going up.中文 · 翻译@Ailisatlx @zGwmby "埃里克·安德森选择在五月离职。" 那只对冲基金的联合创始经理辞职，很可能是一个大信号——他们的公司要从 $SIVE 上涨中垮掉了。
- English · 原文@zGwmby At this rate their firm is going under being YTD -31.02% from $SIVE. https://t.co/oqh6g6fWjj中文 · 翻译@zGwmby 按这个速度下去，他们公司今年从 $SIVE 那已经亏了 31.02%，快撑不住了。https://t.co/oqh6g6fWjj
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar. Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.中文 · 翻译2027年上半年，所有1.6T可插拔的玩家，比如$JBL。 可能Innolight/Eoptolink还有其他可插拔的公司也会加进来。我们很快就会知道，因为$SIVE提到他们还有些没公开的可插拔合作伙伴在谈。 2027年下半年，$NVDA的NVLink CPO生态系统里的玩家（比如Ayar）将全面铺开CPO规模化应用。 市场通常提前大约8个月定价。
- English · 原文$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是我除了 AAOI 以外最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，而且那边有喜剧演员给你提供乐子。 今天，一家叫 Protean Funds 的非技术背景新对冲基金（很可能在做空）跑出来发言了。 说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是凭空想象的。 而就在这之后，$GFS 刚把 $SIVE 列为他们的参考激光器。 （给新读者补充点背景：瑞典很多人只看过去 12 个月的营收，根本不理解未来增长这个概念） 还有就是他们不懂，现在根本就没有任何 CPO 应用已经放量。 所以瑞典的对冲基金一直在做空（其中很多基金，比如 Colosseum / Origo，都已经严重亏损了）。 但是……对于技术派读者来说……从 2026 年下半年到 2028 年，市场空间在 1 年半内从接近 0 飙到 910 亿美元（我们现在已经进入下半年了）。 整体市场空间达到 1410 亿美元（这也是 1 年半内翻了 10 倍以上）……而且 $SIVE 已经通过 $JBL 和其他未公开的可插拔厂家，打入了可插拔市场。 对于这些瑞典本土公司来说，在 $SIVE 即将迎来史上最大拐点之前做空，结局恐怕不会太好看。 放量只是时间问题。
- English · 原文$AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T and follow along Jensen.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 是我目前最看好的美股多头。 我个人的策略是最近每次它跌到 $150、甚至 $170 时就分批加仓。 $JBL 一旦他们为 $SIVE 做的 1.6T LRO 在 2027 上半年进入量产，表现应该会非常好。今天也聊到了 $RDDT。 $MRVL 如果你认为它能达到 1 万亿美元市值，并且跟紧老黄（Jensen）的脚步。
- English · 原文@Frenchie_ They keep fighting with me with everything from $SOI, $RPI, and $SIVE. Then get embarrassed over and over. Idk if they’re going to learn中文 · 翻译@Frenchie_ 他们一直拿 $SOI、$RPI 和 $SIVE 来找我茬。 然后一次又一次被打脸。不知道他们能不能长点记性。
- English · 原文Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle. Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published. Especially if they’re facing infinite losses?中文 · 翻译发现一条关于某瑞典新对冲基金的有趣新闻： Origo 的基金做空 $SIVE 亏了一大笔钱。 "这是今年最大规模的亏损之一" 不少瑞典对冲基金现在都深度浮亏。 这不过是 $SIVE 作为 CPO 超级周期核心组成部分带来的意外副产品。 难怪开始有那么多假新闻被放出来。 尤其是当他们可能面临无限亏损的时候？
- English · 原文It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.中文 · 翻译大公司想随便收购像 $SIVE 这种拿了《芯片法案》资金的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种有政府背景的，其实有点难度。 有些风投部门有时候也会错过机会。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会在六月的投票后入股 $SIVE。
- English · 原文Up to Win Semi and other foundries. Win Semi just did a private placement to scale up capacity, pretty confident they can scale up significant volume for $SIVE. Nobody knows the exact figures for late 2027 or 2028, but confident in one of the world’s leading foundries. But again, even if everyone in the industry mass produces cw, won’t be enough for overall demand. Which is why it’s a bottleneck.中文 · 翻译主要看 Win Semi 和其他代工厂了。Win Semi 刚做了一笔私募来扩产能，它们很有信心能为 $SIVE 大幅提升产量。没人知道 2027 年末或 2028 年的具体数字，但大家对这家全球领先的代工厂有信心。 但再说一次，就算整个行业都大规模量产 cw，也满足不了总需求。 所以这才是瓶颈。
- English · 原文I’m confident in my $SIVE thesis playing out and am not selling a single share. I tried to tell Swedish locals back at 6 SEK how compelling their frontier company was but they all transferred their shares to US retail since they couldn’t understand the concept of forward growth. If US retail want to follow disinformation about a wireless director selling shares like any normal employee would, 3 months ago, back to institutions. At the inflection of CPO/pluggable ramp… They’re free to as well. I’m just trying to combat disinformation by sharing all the nuances.中文 · 翻译我对我的 $SIVE 投资逻辑很有信心，它正在兑现，一股都不会卖。 我早在 6 瑞典克朗的时候就跟瑞典本地人说过，他们这家前沿公司有多厉害，但他们听不进去"前瞻增长"这个概念，都把手里的股票转给了美国散户。 如果美国散户想相信那种关于一个无线业务董事三个月前卖股的谣言——就像任何一个普通员工会做的一样——那就随它回到机构手里去吧。 在 CPO/可插拔模块放量的转折点上……他们也可以选择不参与。 我只是想通过澄清所有细节来对抗这些谣言。
- English · 原文@SidkMena It’s not a monopoly. Just technical dominance over ASIC/Merchant CPO route architectures . And wouldn’t be surprised if other pluggable players created novel 1.6T architectures using $SIVE too.中文 · 翻译@SidkMena 这不是垄断。只是在 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线上掌握了技术主导地位而已。 而且如果其他可插拔玩家也用 $SIVE 搞出新型 1.6T 架构，我一点也不会意外。
- English · 原文$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 看起来既是明年 CPO 的关卡，又是它的瓶颈。 总能看到非技术人员发布的信息，完全忽略了各种细节。 下面说说原因： 1. CW 激光器受到 $LITE 财报所显示的瓶颈制约。 激光晶圆厂的大量产能都被分配给了 EML，很可能来自 $NVDA 之前的合同。 → 住友电工/古河电气 = 瓶颈 → Win Semi = 瓶颈 $SIVE 做的是 Fab-lite 模式，那它算不算瓶颈？ 是的，$SIVE 就卡在这个激光瓶颈里，因为他们很早就掌控了从 Win Semi 和其他晶圆厂流出的 CW 激光器产能分配权（CEO 说过他们也在与其他厂商合作，增加更多产能）。 完美的例子是 Kioxia/Sandisk。$SNDK 控制着 NAND 的产出，所以他们就是瓶颈，因为他们控制着最终定价。 Ayar、Jabil、其他可插拔模块厂商，加上 Nvidia NVLink CPO 生态，需求超过了供给……最终激光器供应掌握在 $SIVE 手里，这就让 Sivers 成了瓶颈。 $SIVE 很可能也是 Jabil、Gen-1 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial，以及其他超大规模 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线的主供或唯一来源。所以绕不开它（单通道 CW 激光器没法热替换掉 Sivers）。 2. $SIVE 是 CPO 的关卡。 $NVDA 用的是 $COHR、$LITE（后者很可能从日本竞争对手那里外购 CW 产能）。 $AVGO 很可能也是垂直整合的。 然而：它周围整个生态，从 ASIC 项目（Marvell、AlChip 等）到商用项目（Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence），很可能都是围绕 $SIVE 设计的。 比如 Ayar，2022 年可能尝试过从 $MTSI / $LITE 做多源采购，但它们的激光器在阵列规格上可能达不到 Sivers 的水平（最近他们从供应链网站上去掉了 Lumentum / Macom）。 如果至少在初期几代产品中没有替代方案（显然他们正在努力做多源采购），那就让 $SIVE 成了激光器领域一个结构性的、必须通过的关卡。 即使看看 $JBL 设计的 1.6T LRO，他们也通过围绕 $SIVE（可能是唯一来源）的性能，建立了一道“巨大的护城河”。 $SIVE 也是 $GFS 的代工厂级参考激光器设计，而你的超大规模客户（比如 $AMD，Gen1 很可能用的是 Sivers + 也许还有 Ayar）都在用 $GFS： 如果每一个尚未实现垂直整合的主要玩家（Nvidia/Broadcom）都在 CPO 中使用 Sivers…… 那他们就构成了一个关卡。 看看整个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态的合作伙伴：每一个都很可能在使用 Sivers。而且它们全都用 $GFS（Sivers 在这里是默认参考设计）。 所以当 CPO 在 2027 年下半年真正起量时，$SIVE 既是关卡又是瓶颈，而这次 CPO 是有史以来最大的架构变革之一（根据高盛研究报告，TAM 从接近 $0 到未来 1 年半内变成 $81B 或 $91B）。 这就是为什么我说 $SIVE 看起来像未来的 $75B 体量的 $LITE，会在未来几年内实现。 这一切都将在明年上演。 而它现在的市值，还不到一家拿着 $50M 采购协议、把 Sivers 的激光器买回来重新包装的公司。
- English · 原文@_king142 $SIVE was probably the most recent visible laser chokepoint that’s still being rerated since seem to be in every $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem partner + merchant/asic cpo supply chains. Maybe passive optical components supply chains in CPO next.中文 · 翻译@_king142 $SIVE 很可能是最近一个比较显眼的激光瓶颈环节，而且目前仍在被重新估价——因为它似乎在每一条 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统的合作伙伴里都有出现，同时也在商用/ASIC CPO 供应链里。 也许下一个就是 CPO 里的无源光学组件供应链了。
- English · 原文Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.中文 · 翻译是啊……我觉得你上游所有半导体供应链的公司都会涨很多。 高盛现在预计，从2025到2030年，四大超大规模云厂商 $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN 的资本开支总和将达到 5.3 万亿美元。 相比一季度财报时预测的 4.5 万亿，已经上调了。 “2026 到 2031 年，总资本开支估计为 7.6 万亿美元。” 这些资金会向上传导到那些小而关键的瓶颈环节，比如 $SIVE（CPO 激光器）、$SOI（硅光子学衬底），还有 Leaderdrive / Harmonic（人形机器人组件）。 等等等等…… AI 板块不会一路上涨， 但当我们从研发/算力建设阶段走向商业化——从 Agent 到物理 AI，再到科学发现——这仅仅是下一场工业革命的开端。
- English · 原文Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho. Which is why they put CPO/Photonics for AI DCs, and niche advanced packaging players on their focus policy.中文 · 翻译欧洲在AI竞赛上根本没机会跟美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的利基垄断/关键节点，以及主权供应链的韧性。 我觉得他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键了。 所以他们才把面向AI数据中心的CPO/光子学、以及利基先进封装厂商列入重点政策。
- English · 原文EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union" - "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics" - "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies - "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies" === More specifically policy specifically focuses on -> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE) -> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…” -> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB) -> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players" -> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework. Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category. Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework. TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now. We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.中文 · 翻译欧盟芯片法案 2.0 提案现已发布。 好消息：光子学现已被确认为欧盟政策的新结构性组成部分。 这对欧盟光子学行业来说，在主题上看涨。 主题上来说： - "‘欧洲芯片计划’的这一新组成部分支持光子集成电路及相关技术的发展" - "在整个联盟内建立并加强光子集成电路技术及其他光子技术的先进设计、原型制造和产业化部署能力" - "拓展联盟的设计能力，包括光子学领域" - "加强现有试点线并开发新的试点线和开放式半导体制造设施，用于光子集成电路及相关光子技术的原型制造和生产" - "开发并维护光子集成电路及相关光子技术的设计库和设计自动化工具" === 具体来说，政策特别聚焦于 → 面向 AI 数据中心的光学共封装（CPO/互连聚焦，对 $SIVE 是看涨信号） → "硅光子……在高带宽数据中心互连中的应用" → "包括共封装和与电子芯片的异构集成、制造设备以及光子集成电路材料平台在内的生产技术能力应得到加强"（$XFAB） → $SOI 在关于欧盟结构性优势的影响分析中被直接提及。"欧盟在 SOI 晶圆方面拥有相对较强的全球地位，Soitec 和 Siltronic 是显著参与者" → $XFAB 也在影响分析中被直接提及，作为创建当前资助框架的一部分。 显然这对 $XFAB 是结构性的利好，因为他们实际上是欧洲硅光子价值链的领导者，并被列为"首创"（FOAK）类别中的一员。 初步解读，这对进入 AI 数据中心的欧盟光子学领导者来说非常积极，符合欧盟政策。我预计光学相关企业将普遍受益于这一框架。 总结：长期来看，欧盟光子学结构性起飞。最积极的确认是，光子学现在已成为欧盟政策的结构性组成部分。 在这份提案发布后，我们很可能在 3-15 个月内（通常在中间某个时间点）看到具体的光子学公司名称出现。市场总体上是前瞻性的。
- English · 原文There's active short sellers probably doubling down on $SIVE. I'd expect them to get wrecked over time. Especially on more announcements. One more surprise $JBL type announcement with someone like Innolight would be interesting. Since Sivers is co-developing/qualifying with more pluggable transceiver partners now, just not named from their earnings transcript.中文 · 翻译现在肯定有活跃的空头在加倍做空 $SIVE。我估计他们迟早要被打脸。 尤其是后续还有更多消息放出来的话。 要是再来一个像 $JBL 那样的意外公告，比如跟 Innolight 之类的公司合作，那就精彩了。 毕竟 Sivers 现在正在跟更多可插拔光模块合作伙伴联合开发/做认证，只是财报里没点名而已。
- English · 原文@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.中文 · 翻译@siflower 那是 $NVDA 本身。我说的是指 ASIC/商业 NVLink CPO 生态系统里的合作伙伴。 $SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
- English · 原文its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.中文 · 翻译供应链已经确认了。我之前就知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资方，所以我觉得他们应该是想在 NVLink 生态这类方向上寻求战略合作。 $AMD 也投了 Ayar，那 $AMD 找 $GFS 做 CPO 这事儿，再加上 Ayar 这边的关系，基本上把 $SIVE 串起来就很容易推理了。 联发科和 $INTC 原来也是 Ayar 的投资方，联发科还在做谷歌的 ASIC。 所以按这个逻辑推下去，接下来可能很快就会有 $SIVE 进入 $GOOGL 供应链的更多消息。
- English · 原文@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.中文 · 翻译@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong 预期 Celestial 和 Lightmatter 会尝试多源供应。 但可能第一代产品，我猜大多是独家或主供，用 $SIVE 来服务 $NVDA 的 CPO NVlink 生态系统。 英伟达自己也跟 $LITE 和 $COHR 有合作项目。
- English · 原文@MindQuest42 If $SIVE were trading at $6-8B valuations today, I wouldn't be surprised. That being said, its still on a Swedish exchange, but NASDAQ listing should close the gap.中文 · 翻译@MindQuest42 如果 $SIVE 现在的估值是 60-80 亿美元，我一点都不会惊讶。 不过话说回来，它现在还在瑞典交易所挂牌，但纳斯达克上市应该会缩小这个差距。
- English · 原文$NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers = laser supplier to entire NVLink CPO ecosystem. People were doubting Sivers connections to Nvidia, but Ayar joining is clearest tie of $SIVE to $NVDA.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 的 CPO 生态系 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天刚加入） $SIVE 百分百确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 有高置信度是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 全都用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是它们的参考激光。 Sivers = 整个 NVLink CPO 生态系的激光供应商。 之前有人质疑 Sivers 跟 Nvidia 的关系，但 Ayar 加入就最清楚地说明了 $SIVE 和 $NVDA 之间的关联。
- English · 原文GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.中文 · 翻译猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
- English · 原文@ConfusedNDazzed There's actually even bigger news for $SIVE today than the EU CHIPS Act policy framework announcements.中文 · 翻译@ConfusedNDazzed 其实今天对 $SIVE 来说，有比欧盟芯片法案政策框架公告更大的消息。
- English · 原文So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised if larger players were there.中文 · 翻译所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经比较成熟了。 我深入看了一下，提案主要围绕 3000 万到 5 亿美元的融资和营收激励，目的是帮助那些还没进入量产的企业过渡到大规模量产阶段。 $SIVE / $XFAB 和这些政策激励更贴合，不过要是大玩家也在里面，我也不会意外。
- English · 原文Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes. To bridge early European companies to volume production. I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries: - $XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM. - and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027. More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.中文 · 翻译欧洲今天（6 月 3 日）发布其《技术主权一揽子计划》。 其中包括《芯片法案 2.0》，预计将优先发展光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 均被列入《产业政策蓝图》，该蓝图指导欧盟立法。 该计划提出主权支持，每家公司可获 3,000 万至 5 亿欧元的融资额度，并设有收入需求激励机制。 旨在帮助欧洲早期公司过渡到量产阶段。 我个人认为我的两个主题思路将大幅受益： - $XFAB，因为他们引领欧洲的硅光子价值链，诺基亚和英伟达正在评估他们进行光子学大规模量产。 - 以及 $SIVE，作为欧洲 AI 数据中心激光器领域的领导者，计划在 2027 年将激光器推向大规模量产。 更多细节将于今日公布，但这对光子学而言是一个结构性利好，对西方、尤其是欧盟供应链至关重要。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 我知道！$SIVE 成为 $NVDA nvlink 融合生态系统的激光供应商，这真是个重磅消息。 Marvell 几个月前才加入，看看他们之后的市值涨成什么样了。 我今天晚点会详细聊聊这个！
- English · 原文$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm中文 · 翻译$LITE 靠着 EML 和可插拔模块，在两年内从 $3B 涨到 $75B 完成了第一波光通信行情。 我的观点是 $SIVE 也能从 $3B 起步做到同样的事，凭借 CPO/可插拔模块和连续波激光器。 Sivers 加上 GFS 的 SiPH 参考激光器消息，再加上今天 54% 的涨幅。 这才只是刚刚开始。 https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.中文 · 翻译@wangxindian @StormDirac 我感觉大家还没意识到 $GFS 这条新闻的分量。 它可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更根本性地具有突破性。 因为所有经过 GFS 硅光子的公司，像是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA，默认的参考设计里都嵌着 $SIVE。
- English · 原文@StormDirac “Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform.” Woah that’s structurally massive news with $SIVE and $GFS.中文 · 翻译@StormDirac "Sivers Semiconductors 的激光阵列将被集成到基于 GF 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。" 哇，这对 $SIVE 和 $GFS 来说，是结构性的重大消息。
- English · 原文Just a heads up, I've uncovered a bot farm with dozens of accounts used to spread disinformation about $SIVE in the past few days. This illegal campaign likely stems geographically from Asia. As these accounts were used to do marketing for the same Asian projects like Alchemy Pay. Or bought brand new bought X accounts. All of which have no activity, but have an abrupt shift in timeline to repeating false claims about selling $SIVE positions and telling others to sell. With some getting caught using AI prompts to create a negative reply. This will be passed along to the SEC for investigation given there's certain traceability logs available. While the regulators investigate, maybe not a good idea follow along false bot farm advice.中文 · 翻译提个醒，我最近发现了一个机器人农场，几十个账号这几天一直在散播关于 $SIVE 的假消息。 这场非法操作的地理源头很可能在亚洲。 因为这些账号之前都在为同样来自亚洲的项目做营销，比如 Alchemy Pay。还有些是刚买的全新 X 账号。 这些账号统统没有正常活动记录，但时间线却突然一转，开始反复散布虚假说法——说自己卖掉了 $SIVE 仓位，还鼓动别人也卖。 更有几个被抓到是用 AI 提示词生成的负面回复。 鉴于某些追溯日志可以获取，我会把这些材料提交给 SEC 调查。 在监管机构调查期间，或许最好别跟着那些机器人农场的瞎建议走。
- English · 原文-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.中文 · 翻译-> 拿下IP -> 就等CPO起飞 $SIVE 是光子学领域的激光要塞，并且已获得如下公开验证： - $GFS（据演示材料，是两家公开激光供应商之一，与 $LITE 一起供应 CPO） - $JBL（用Sivers构建的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”） - 整个公司获得的CHIPS法案资金 最高可见度方面： -> Ayar 是最大的CPO玩家，主要货源来自 $SIVE，预计2027年放量。 -> $POET 是另一个近期的CPO量产玩家，与Sivers有非常高的可见度。 开源情报梳理： $MRVL Celestial（直接，非通过Poet）、Lightmatter、Lightelligence，都是Sivers的高置信度客户。 $SIVE 还在与更多光收发器厂商进行开发和认证，紧随Jabil之后。 感觉它们会出现在每个角落。 我不确定大家是否意识到，一家市值不到20亿美元的激光公司，在2027年放量前夕获得这么多认证，有多不寻常…… 尤其当其他激光公司都在150亿到700亿美元的估值区间交易。 只需要可插拔模块来填补营收缺口，撑到2027年下半年（CPO规模化）。 然后照着 $LITE 的剧本，让每一颗卖出的激光器都更值钱，从而在两个市场中捕获更多TAM。 - 在整体光学领域，未来一年半内TAM为1410亿美元（高盛数据，10倍空间）。 - 而CPO的TAM将在未来一年半内从0增长到810亿美元。 所以，通过向下游收购IP，一夜之间就能轻松把营收机会翻倍。 更多只是等待的游戏，我认为 $SIVE 相对于未来的营收潜力，现在非常被低估。 如果它是一家硅谷的私营初创公司，今天可能值40到60亿美元。 只需要在纳斯达克上市，用溢价来弥合这个差距。
- English · 原文@StormDirac Yeah, it's extremely disingenuous to conflate different architectures, customers timelines. And try to profit off false information with $SIVE. But with Citron and $AAOI, didnt turn out very well shorting optical companies in supercycles.中文 · 翻译@StormDirac 没错，把不同的架构、客户时间线混为一谈，真是太不诚实了。 还想利用虚假信息靠 $SIVE 捞一笔。 不过，看看 Citron 和 $AAOI，在超级周期里做空光通信公司，结果都不怎么好。
- English · 原文@159Adir52550 CPO is largely h2 2027. $JBL already announced timelines for mass production on their 1.6T LRO using $SIVE so that’s material revenue coming in within 3-10m.中文 · 翻译@159Adir52550 CPO 主要是在 2027 年下半年。 $JBL 已经公布了使用 $SIVE 生产 1.6T LRO 的批量时间表，所以这部分实质性收入将在 3 到 10 个月内到账。
- English · 原文Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.中文 · 翻译Ayar 今天和 Wiwynn 的声明，对 $SIVE 来说在 CPO -> 机架级部署这条线上，潜在意义非常大。 因为 Wiwynn 的云客户包括 $AMZN、$META、$MSFT。 而且他们一直在跟 $GOOGL 的 TPU 部署谈合作。 我觉得，单看一些参考架构，一个机架大概就要 512+ 个 Supernova 光源。 所以如果 $SIVE 是主要的激光阵列供应商（我们预期是这样，毕竟 Macom 和 Lumentum 已经从 Ayar 的官网上移除了）。 哪怕只是中等规模的机架部署，对营收来说也意义重大。 而这还只是 $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn 眼下在机架级商业化上的潜力，暂时还不会体现在财务营收上。
- English · 原文@halldj00 $SIVE was high confidence laser supplier directly to Celestial. Celestial got bought by $MRVL. https://t.co/zc18YS8EwJ中文 · 翻译@halldj00 $SIVE 是直接向 Celestial 供货的高置信度激光供应商。 Celestial 被 $MRVL 收购了。 https://t.co/zc18YS8EwJ
- English · 原文People do valuation analysis wrong on names like Sivers or $AXTI. You won’t be able to model $SIVE revenue projections if they’re end up doing M&A + TAM expansioning down optical engines/ELS/optical transceiver stack. Right now it’s looking at all the hyperscaler supply chains they’re qualified into, and a venture style thesis on how they can capture more market share of overall CPO supercycle.中文 · 翻译大家对 Sivers 或者 $AXTI 这类公司的估值分析方法都搞错了。 如果他们最终是通过并购 + 扩大 TAM 的方式，向下游的光引擎/ELS/光收发器整条产业链延伸，那你根本没法给 $SIVE 建立营收预测模型。 现在要看的，是他们已经进入了哪些超大规模云厂商的供应链，以及一个风险投资式的投资逻辑——他们能如何在整体 CPO 超级周期中抢占更多市场份额。
- English · 原文$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.中文 · 翻译$MRVL 的财报对整个 CPO 主题（以及 $SIVE 作为可能的激光器供应商）来说是一个看涨信号。 - "Scale-up interconnect 代表了 AI 基础设施领域最新、最具战略意义的机遇之一。" CPO 主题直接起飞 🚀 - 确认 Celestial 被一级超大规模云服务商选中用于规模化部署。 我之前发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 权证……所以很可能是亚马逊。 - 明年的 Scale-up 光学收入应该比之前约 $1.5 亿的预期翻倍不止，这要归功于 Celestial。 远期营收增长预期直接起飞。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队简直就是"全垒打"。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长引擎，上游的 Celestial 供应商们跟着起飞。 - $MRVL 现在专注于将 Celestial 推向大规模量产。 这是放量爬坡的信号。 如果你不记得了，之前有过 OSINT 情报直接指向 $SIVE 与 Celestial 有关联，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的远期增长对 Sivers 的激光器来说就是一个放量爬坡的信号。
- English · 原文They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream中文 · 翻译他们傻吗？ $JBL 宣布需求大于供应，这预示着 $SIVE 的激光器将进入大规模量产。 Ayar 筹集了 5 亿美元用于量产放量，并放弃了 $LITE 和 $MTSI，转投 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。 $AMD 选择了 $GFS，并且有很大概率在它们的 CPO 计划中使用 Sivers 的产品。 Sivers 还暗示了并购的可能，这会大幅扩展下游的可触达市场。
- English · 原文@ivobuild $SIVE is in Wiwynn supply chains through Ayar, not Winway. It’s also partnered with Win Semi. They sound the same but all different companies https://t.co/k9KntESjeD中文 · 翻译@ivobuild $SIVE 通过 Ayar 进入了 Wiwynn 的供应链，而不是 Winway。它也和 Win Semi 有合作。 名字听起来差不多，但都是不同的公司 https://t.co/k9KntESjeD
- English · 原文@beauty_oe Yeah! This is the first time I’m seeing $SIVE listed on EU chips act 2. I think it’s very compelling.中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 对！这是我第一次看到 $SIVE 出现在欧盟芯片法案 2 的名单上。 我觉得这非常吸引人。
- English · 原文Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql中文 · 翻译嗯，看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 拿到欧盟芯片法案 2 的资金的话，我也不会意外。 开心的是，我那些多头持仓（除了 $IQE）也都列在蓝图上了——之前研究时没注意到这一点！ 不过，看起来正式公告推迟到下周了。https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
- English · 原文@BgEdgelord $SIVE is fundamentally extremely compelling from CPO. And all the valuation drivers are $JBL 1.6T and CPO ramp from players like Ayar. Think those shorts turning into a long are just a cherry on top along the way.中文 · 翻译@BgEdgelord $SIVE 从 CPO 角度看，基本面非常有吸引力。 而且所有估值驱动因素都来自 $JBL 的 1.6 万亿以及 Ayar 这类玩家的 CPO 爬坡。 那些空头转多头的操作，不过是沿途锦上添花罢了。
- English · 原文I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE. Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation. And likely through local news media too. Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now. https://t.co/U3Euy391l8中文 · 翻译我还在纳闷，为什么关于 $SIVE 会有那么多不理性的虚假信息。 原来是有做空机构在运营 bot 群组，到处散布假消息。 而且很可能还通过本地新闻媒体来传播。 希望他们现在能在空头仓位上被狠狠打爆。https://t.co/U3Euy391l8
- English · 原文FYI, EU Chips Act 2 is today, May 27th. This one is expected to be targeted specially around photonics. There happens to Europe’s leading photonics/laser company called $SIVE over in Sweden. That also received US CHIPS act funding and is critical to Western supply chains. https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq中文 · 翻译FYI，今天（5月27日）是《欧盟芯片法案2》的日子。 这次预计会特别针对光子学领域。 欧洲刚好有一家领先的光子学/激光公司叫 $SIVE，在瑞典。 这家公司还拿到了美国的芯片法案资助，对西方供应链至关重要。https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq
- English · 原文Swedens transferring control of $SIVE to the West + other countries… Is honestly fun to watch in the charts. https://t.co/zNfWatAm4S中文 · 翻译瑞典正在把 $SIVE 的控制权转交给西方和其它国家…… 说实话，看图表还挺有意思的。 https://t.co/zNfWatAm4S
- English · 原文@Mengmengeth Well $JBL is new TAM expansion into pluggable optical transceivers. CPO with Ayar, $POET, Lightelligence, Celestial, and those players are entirely new. So having both helps $SIVE bridge the valuation gap faster.中文 · 翻译@Mengmengeth 嗯，$JBL 是新进入可插拔光收发器市场，拓展了 TAM。 CPO 方面，跟 Ayar、$POET、Lightelligence、Celestial 还有那些玩家都是全新的。 所以同时拥有这两块，能帮 $SIVE 更快缩小估值差距。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 在我看来是最有吸引力的 CPO 概念股。 虽然它波动很大。 但你可能要到几年后光子学领域下一次架构变革时，才能再找到这样的标的。 核心激光器供应商里，它们市值不都是几百亿吗？ $AAOI = 150 亿美元 古河电工 = 260 亿美元 $MTSI = 290 亿美元 住友电工 = 590 亿美元 $COHR = 730 亿美元 $LITE = 740 亿美元 然后 $SIVE 作为核心 CPO 激光器瓶颈之一，市值只有 23 亿美元。 财报通常只是确认那些小信号——比如 Jabil 电话会纪要里关于 1.6T LRO 的量产线索。 而大部分收益往往是在正式确认之前赚到的，而不是之后，这只是一条经验法则。
- English · 原文@Redpulse_News I personally don’t really see any other compelling Western CPO related name under $14B MC right now. $SIVE is still sub $2.7B MC.中文 · 翻译@Redpulse_News 我个人目前真的没看到其他有吸引力的西部 CPO 相关标的，市值低于 140 亿美元的。 $SIVE 市值仍然不到 27 亿美元。
- English · 原文$JBL literally announced in their fireside chat… Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months. $SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver. Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / sole source laser supplier. 2025 annual report, $SIVE signaled start of volume ramp with both (likely) $AEVA and $POET. This is how you do supply chain mapping on qualification cycles. Anything they make, Sivers makes revenue off lasers. If you ask AI they will keep confidently citing 2024 revenue numbers without knowing volume hints. Which is why I keep seeing these false claims like this over and over, despite Sivers being on the precipice of mass production for 2027.中文 · 翻译$JBL 在他们的炉边谈话中直接宣布了…… 1.6T LRO 将在 3-10 个月内进入大规模量产，需求极其旺盛。 $SIVE 极有可能是这款特定光收发器唯一的激光器供应商。 Ayar 最近刚筹集了 5 亿美元用于产能爬坡，而 $SIVE 是其主要 / 唯一的激光器供应商。 2025 年年报中，$SIVE 暗示已开始与（很可能）$AEVA 和 $POET 一起进入产能爬坡阶段。 这才是正确的供应链追踪方式，盯着认证周期判断。 他们做的东西，只要出货，Sivers 就能从激光器上赚到钱。 你要是去问 AI，它们会自信满满地引用 2024 年的营收数据，根本不知道那些产能放量的信号。 所以我才反复看到这种错误说法，尽管 Sivers 已经站在 2027 年大规模量产的门槛上了。
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
- English · 原文$SIVE is highest possible upside, since I see them being the next $LITE (which started at ~$2.6B as well in 2024, but now is $80B). As laser chokepoints are known to downstream TAM expand, then vertically integrate assembly/fabs after. Foci/Shunsin I kinda expect to 3-4x. They're more structural re-rating from FAU/component revenue growth... or just more demand on packaging/test. But hard to see them going up 20x.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 的上行空间最大，因为我看好它会成为下一个 $LITE（后者 2024 年起步时市值大约 26 亿美元，现在已经 800 亿美元了）。 激光瓶颈环节众所周知，下游 TAM 会扩张，然后它们再往后垂直整合封装/晶圆厂。 Foci/Shunsin 我大概预期能涨 3 到 4 倍。 它们更多是来自 FAU/组件营收增长带来的结构性重估……或者只是封装/测试需求增加。但要看到它们涨 20 倍，挺难的。
- English · 原文For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis. Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships. Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others. Retail aren't as familiar with private markets... But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly. So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue. New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time. But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.中文 · 翻译给正在尝试对 $SIVE 做估值分析的人。 Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 这些公司现在的估值大概在 40 亿到 150 亿美元以上。 Sivers 市值约 26 亿美元，它们很可能在给所有这些公司做上游激光器。 我甚至还没有把 Poet、TFLN 链上的 Hyperlight/Lightium、Jabil 这样的可插拔模块商、以及其他未披露的公司算进估值分析里。 也没有算它们的其他业务板块，比如 CHIPS 法案的合同、或者苹果/诺基亚的关系。 也没有算上跟 Aeva 等公司合作的人形机器人/物理 AI 板块。 散户对私募市场没那么熟悉…… 但这些公司全都被视为 CPO 领域的前沿玩家，估值和规模化能力都在飞速增长。 所以，考虑到激光器这个瓶颈环节的溢价，我觉得 $SIVE 应该能拿到跟它们差不多甚至更高的估值。尤其是他们通过并购扩大 TAM 并提升收入之后。 下个月 Blackrock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ 的新资金流入，会慢慢帮助缩小这个差距。 不过，纳斯达克上市资格本身可能就是给 Sivers 带来溢价的原因。
- English · 原文I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE? https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg中文 · 翻译我在 $AXTI 和 $SIVE 上的表现，应该配得上一部自己的 Netflix 特辑了吧？https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg
- English · 原文Nah, I think $SIVE is still extremely undervalued relatively speaking. Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, celestial, and others all probably command $5-$15B+ valuations. Not even including small guys like $POET or pluggables like $JBL. Sivers lasers likely power them all, and they’re primary/sole source for a lot.中文 · 翻译不，我觉得 $SIVE 相对而言还是被严重低估了。 Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Celestial 还有其他几家，估值大概都在 50 亿到 150 亿美元以上。 这还没算上 $POET 这样的小公司，或者 $JBL 这类可插拔模块。 Sivers 的激光器很可能给它们全都供货，而且在很多产品里是主要甚至唯一的供应商。
- English · 原文@happikoala2025 @beauty_oe 超かっこいい画像を作ってくれてありがとう！ まるでリザードンとトランセルが $AXTIと $SIVE みたいじゃない？ でも、トランセルはもうすぐ進化すると思うけどw中文 · 翻译@happikoala2025 @beauty_oe 谢谢你帮我做了这张超帅的图！ 这就像喷火龙和铁壳蛹，一个是 $AXTI，一个是 $SIVE 对吧？ 不过我觉得铁壳蛹应该就快进化了哈哈
- English · 原文No, why would there be much of a pullback? (Also don’t own Cerebras) The “hype” over Vanguard and Blackrock buying $SIVE is extremely justified… Because that’s new + pure buying pressure into existing float. And inflows are probably another $10M+ now next week given MC increase.中文 · 翻译不，怎么会大跌呢？（而且我没持有 Cerebras） 市场对 Vanguard 和 Blackrock 买入 $SIVE 的“炒作”完全合理……因为这是新增的、纯粹针对现有流通盘的买入压力。 而且考虑到市值增长，下周可能又会有 1000 万美元以上的资金流入。
- English · 原文@Selooo79 3 weeks ago they were trying to bear post about some random Swedish firm selling. Now, Blackrock, Vanguard and others are buying $SIVE next month. Don’t think US capital cares too much about local Swedish capital/short sellers.中文 · 翻译@Selooo79 三周前他们还在发帖唱空，说有个瑞典公司要出货。 现在，贝莱德、先锋和其他机构下个月都在买 $SIVE。别以为美国资本会在乎瑞典本地资本和做空者的那些小动作。
- English · 原文Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.中文 · 翻译你听到了吗，匿名用户？ $SIVE 现在极早期。 接下来一周，我们将首次看到大量机构资金涌入（Blackrock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再加上很快就要在纳斯达克上市，会有更多美国机构进场。 这就是早期买入 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类股票时的感觉。 而且这会儿，大机构资金还没大量涌入流通盘，CPO 超级周期也还没真正启动。
- English · 原文@ThriveSnap $SIVE is extremely early. Before it was mainly retail. All the institutional capital are about to enter soon, as seen with all the index inflows next week. Then NASDAQ soon. Retail just aren’t accustomed to being the earliest to a name for once.中文 · 翻译@ThriveSnap $SIVE 现在还非常早期。之前主要是散户在玩。 所有机构资金很快就要进场了，下周指数资金流入就能看出来。 然后纳斯达克也快了。散户就是还没习惯自己居然能成为某个标的的头批玩家。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the largest beneficiary of brand new events this weekend: 1. Sivers new NASDAQ index inclusion (OMX Stockholm): Both Vanguard and Blackrock are new passive inflows. With ~$60M+ pure buying pressure inflow, into existing float, together with MSCI next week. 2. US Gov and Sweden sign agreement for joint tech collaboration. $SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden. And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week. Making $SIVE heavily supported + critical to the US government. - TLDR: New passive institutional inflow from your largest US institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard. Compounded with US government backing into $SIVE. Over the weekend. Beneficial for fundamentals (revenue/TAM from Pentagon supply chains) and inflow from Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ. Extremely bullish.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是这周末全新事件的最大受益者： 1. Sivers 新纳入纳斯达克指数（OMX Stockholm）： 先锋领航和贝莱德都将带来新的被动资金流入。 大约有 $6000 万+ 的纯买入压力涌入现有流通盘，再加上下周的 MSCI。 2. 美国政府与瑞典签署联合技术合作协议。 $SIVE 是少数几家获得《芯片法案》资助的公司之一，尤其是在瑞典。 而且如果你不记得了，他们上周还收到了另一笔 $660 万 的《芯片法案》拨款。 这让 $SIVE 获得了强有力的支持，并且对美国至关重要。 - 长话短说：来自美国最大机构（如贝莱德/先锋领航）的新的被动机构资金流入。 再加上美国政府周末给 $SIVE 的支持。 对基本面（五角大楼供应链带来的收入/潜在市场规模）和来自贝莱德/先锋领航/MSCI/纳斯达克的资金流入都有利。 极度看涨。
- English · 原文几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries. I'm not sure people are fully aware yet. $SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others. Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dynamics / $NVDA self-driving architectural standards. Then you have $SIVE -> Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL, and many others for CPO/1.6T. Those go to GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell -> hyperscalers. Then there's a ton more... Like their US Gov CHIPS Act work that are secretive. Normally with stuff like $POET, it's like "hey" you have 1 customer with a $50m purchase order, we know where that's going. Not some Swedish company with a smaller valuation, going into everywhere from Space, Robotics, AI, consumer segments...中文 · 翻译在做供应链梳理的时候…$SIVE 在很多前沿产业里都处于绝对关键的位置。 我感觉大家还没完全意识到这一点。 $SIVE → $AAPL、$NOK、$RTX（美国国防承包商）、$YSS（金穹）。还不包括爱立信和其他。 然后还有 $SIVE → $AEVA → Boston Dynamics / $NVDA 自动驾驶架构标准。 接着是 $SIVE → Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL，还有很多其他做 CPO/1.6T 的公司。 这些又通到 GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell → 超大规模云厂商。 还有更多…比如他们跟美国政府《芯片法案》相关的保密项目。 通常像 $POET 这种，你会说"嘿"，它有一个客户下了 $5000 万的采购订单，我们知道钱会流向哪里。 但一家瑞典公司，估值更小，却遍布太空、机器人、AI、消费电子等各个领域。
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。
- English · 原文$SIVE (laser), Foci (fau/optical components), Shunsin (packaging/test), MSSCorp (yields) are personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff. Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.中文 · 翻译$SIVE（激光）、Foci（光纤/光学元件）、Shunsin（封装/测试）、MSSCorp（良率）是我个人目前最看好的CPO相关标的。 因为它们基本都在未来两年里从0到100全速推进。
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.中文 · 翻译一股 $SIVE 我都不会卖。 我个人觉得，这是十年一遇的多头机会，毕竟他们已经打进了那么多家超大规模云服务商的供应链。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔光模块和 CPO 的 TAM 扩张预测，简直夸张。 如果你还没读过 $JBL 那场线上交流的文字记录，里面确认了需求和时间线。 或者没注意到 Ayar 已经从官网上去掉了 Lumentum 和 Macom 这两家激光器供应商，这验证了他们的护城河。 或者没看到光是《芯片法案》的拨款就已经确认了它的技术重要性。 或者没意识到管理层在我看来每一步都走对了——从纳斯达克上市到转向并购聚焦，都验证了未来增长的远景。 按现在的估值来看，向上的空间实在太诱人了。 而且机构资金才刚刚开始进场……接下来下个月，纳斯达克、贝莱德、MSCI 这些指数就会带来数千万美元的被动长期新资金流入。
- English · 原文@knedoycap There's around ~$47M from MSCI index for $SIVE. And ~$15-20M from the new NASDAQ Stockholm index inclusion. So ~$64.5M of pure institutional buying pressure next month. Given ~17% of FF is shorted too, add that to buying pressure if they cover.中文 · 翻译@knedoycap MSCI 指数那边大概有 $47M 会流入 $SIVE。再加上新纳入纳斯达克斯德哥尔摩指数，大概有 $15-20M。 所以下个月约有 $6450 万的纯机构买入压力。而且大约 17% 的自由流通股还在做空，如果他们回补的话，买入压力还会更大。
- English · 原文Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index. This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M. We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM. https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja中文 · 翻译哇，纳斯达克刚把 $SIVE 纳入了斯德哥尔摩指数。 这预计会带来大约 1500-2000 万美元的被动资金流入，其中纯 ETF 部分大概在 50 万美元左右。 我们可以明显看到大量机构资金涌入 Sivers，而且这还是建立在 MSCI 月未纳入指数的基础之上。https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja
- English · 原文People in Sweden always like: “How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE? Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ中文 · 翻译瑞典人总爱说： “$SIVE 员工这么少，怎么搞定这一切的？” vs. $LITE？ 结果发现……如果整个团队里大约四分之一都是博士，你就能造出全世界最有价值的 IP。https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ
- English · 原文Welcome to Silicon Valley, Sweden. It's moreso what you can do with the funding and if you can turn that market investment into $100B+. Not about what revenue you pulled in from 2024. $SIVE has the perfect setup right now, and I think it's likely they can pull off the right acquisitions to speedrun revenue expansion.中文 · 翻译欢迎来到硅谷，瑞典。 关键还是看你能拿这笔资金做什么，以及能不能把那笔市场投资变成 1000 亿美元以上。 不是看 2024 年你挣了多少营收。 $SIVE 现在的布局简直完美，我觉得他们大概率能通过正确的收购，快速把营收规模提上去。
- English · 原文$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 更偏向纯粹的制造规模，我极度看好他们。 所以在我看来它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此极度看好其营收增长。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要的 CPO 超大规模供应商似乎都在用他们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。 连 $JBL 都与 Sivers 在 1.6T LRO 上建立了突破性的护城河。 Sivers 的上限是天花板，未来他们也可以像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样通过资本开支实现垂直整合。 但他们目前的主要重点应该是尽可能打造最大的 IP 护城河 + 将制造外包以保持轻资本。 以后随时可以垂直整合组装和激光器制造。 我因为不同的原因看好这两家。
- English · 原文Markets are kinda realizing US Gov is heavily backing $SIVE as you can see with direct US CHIPS Act funding. Since you see Sivers in $YSS Golden Dome supply chains (from allspace), and $RTX defense supply chains (chips act). But yeah Ericsson and SIvers are probably the two more noticable ones benefiting from US x Sweden tech MOU.中文 · 翻译市场开始有点意识到，美国政府通过直接的《芯片法案》资金，在大力支持 $SIVE。 因为你看到 Sivers 出现在 $YSS "金穹" 供应链（来自 allspace）和 $RTX 国防供应链（芯片法案）里。 不过没错，爱立信和 Sivers 大概是最显眼的两个，受益于美国与瑞典的技术合作谅解备忘录（MOU）。
- English · 原文I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE. I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start. Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked. CHIPS ACT, all these likely partnerships from $NOK to $AAPL also gives a ton of credibility to the IP moat they've built. They just lacked the funding before the recent market interest in Sivers. But I'm very interested to see what they can do from here.中文 · 翻译我之前说过，但我对 $SIVE 有很高的信心。 我有信心，他们那支来自 UC Berkeley 和 $LITE 的 executive 团队知道该收购哪些 IP。毕竟他们从一开始就和 Ayar 他们合作过。 再加上他们公司有 22% 的员工都是博士，所以整个团队非常厉害。 CHIPS 法案，再加上所有这些潜在的合作伙伴，从 $NOK 到 $AAPL，也给他们构建的 IP 护城河带来了极大的可信度。 在最近市场对 Sivers 产生兴趣之前，他们只是缺乏资金。但我非常期待看到他们接下来能有什么作为。
- English · 原文For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.中文 · 翻译要让 $SIVE 成为下一个 800 亿+ 美元的 $LITE。 Sivers 是目前从传统光学转向 CPO 和 1.6T 的激光器之王。 他们基本上把激光器供应给 CPO 领域的头部玩家。 很可能是 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他做 CPO 的公司——在它们做大之前。 现在和 $JBL 这样的大玩家一起做 1.6T LRO，还有更多的测试和认证正在进行，针对可插拔模块。 他们终于解决了那个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题，市场也开始关注他们，准备在纳斯达克上市后（或者现在用股权）收购底层的 CPO 相关 IP。 并且尽可能扩大收入来源，从激光器延伸至： → 光学引擎/ELS 的价值。 → 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 当年那样——在两年内把估值从 20 亿推到 800 亿美元。 但不同的是，$LITE 靠的是 EML 和可插拔模块，而 Sivers 瞄准的是 CPO 超级周期，也就是光子学史上 TAM 扩张最快的领域。 我在关注这个故事，看他们如何实现这场大卫 vs 歌利亚式的逆袭，追上 $LITE。 这比我在意现在这点小市值的百分比变动重要多了。
- English · 原文5 months ago. I gave a PT of $150 with $AXTI. Over 10x that current values from a $500M MC. It’s now a $9.2B MC and $140. $10 away. New $SIVE longs are starting to realize what’s it’s like to be in AXT. And that I’m pretty good at guessing intrinsic valuations of companies. https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV中文 · 翻译5 个月前。我给 $AXTI 定了个 $150 的目标价。 从 $500M 市值到现在涨了 10 倍多。 现在市值 $9.2B，股价 $140。还差 $10。 新进 $SIVE 的多头们，终于开始体会当初在 AXT 里的滋味了。 而且，我猜公司内在价值还是挺准的。 https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV
- English · 原文Wait until you realize that this is actually NASDAQ liquidity required for the US listing/float. And proceeds are expected go to $SIVE M&A (they hired 2 acquisition related board members). For photonics TAM/Revenue expansion. Not only that, all the small companies they worked with from Celestial to Lightmatter ended up being swallowed up by Marvell or became independent billion dollar companies. So Sivers is by far the most knowledgable in what to acquire at the very start. Which is why I call $SIVE the Kingmaker for CPO. This is in fact extremely bullish for Sivers.中文 · 翻译等你意识到，这笔钱其实是纳斯达克为了上市/流通性所要求的流动性。 而且募来的钱预计会拿去给 $SIVE 做并购（他们聘请了两位跟收购相关的董事会成员）。 为了光子学的整体目标市场/营收扩张。 还不止这样，所有他们合作过的初创公司，从 Celestial 到 Lightmatter，最后不是被 Marvell 吞掉，就是自己长成了市值十亿美元级的独立公司。 所以 Sivers 绝对是目前最懂如何在最早期就挑对标的的玩家。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 的 "王座推手"。 这对 Sivers 来说，其实是非常强烈的利好信号。
- English · 原文$SIVE is literally the kingmaker for CPO: From ~ Lightmatter, Celestial, Ayar, Lightelligence early on. Now the leaders with massive $5-10B+ valuations. To the ASIC ecosystems like Marvell, Alchip, GUC. With O-Net mass producing ELS with Sivers for CPO. And Jabil mass producing pluggables with Sivers for pluggable optical transceivers. All likely surround and are designed around Sivers lasers. Markets are only starting to see the precipice of how important this laser company is.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 简直就是 CPO 领域的造王者： 从早期 ~ Lightmatter、Celestial、Ayar、Lightelligence，现在它们都是估值高达 50-100 亿美元的领导者。 再到 ASIC 生态系统，比如 Marvell、Alchip、GUC。 加上 O-Net 正在跟 Sivers 一起量产 ELS，用于 CPO。 还有 Jabil 跟 Sivers 一起量产可插拔光模块。 所有这些很可能都围绕并且基于 Sivers 的激光器来设计。 市场才刚刚开始看到这家激光公司有多重要。
- English · 原文Am I that popular? I did get a lot of dm requests to manage their capital recently. But only here to help out regular retail investors succeed on their own with ideas like $SIVE or $SOI. I feel like anything else would be a bit of a distraction.中文 · 翻译我这么受欢迎吗？ 最近确实收到不少私信，让我帮他们管钱。 但我在这里只是想帮助普通散户投资者，用 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这类思路自己取得成功。 我觉得干别的事就有点跑偏了。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
SIVE 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：