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- English · 原文$SIVE is has a decent chance to be in Boston Dynamics humanoid programs through $AEVA and LG Innotek. I don’t see it being too material to revenue near term since the leading humanoid companies have only made ~10K so far. But if you get to the millions in past 2028, it’s probably material to revenue中文 · 翻译$SIVE 有相当大的机会通过 $AEVA 和 LG Innotek 进入波士顿动力的人形机器人项目。 短期内我觉得这对营收影响不会太大，因为头部人形机器人公司到目前为止才造了大约 1 万台。 但如果你到 2028 年之后达到百万台级别，那可能就对营收有实质贡献了。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe ニュースが発表された時、誰がすぐに恩恵を受けるのかを考えるようにしているんです。 $SPCXによるMeshの買収後、初期のスタートアップと協業してきた実績を考えると $SIVE が恩恵を受けそうだなと思いました。 フォロワー2万人達成、おめでとうございます！中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文They never did. $SIVE dropped the employee incentive program from the meeting agenda, think you're confusing the two. NASDAQ listing just takes time and still in the process. The shareholder meeting passed the authorization for share issuance, which is needed for dual listing liquidity. The resolution for the new board members was also needed. They're just crossing off the checklist.中文 · 翻译他们从来没这么做。$SIVE 把员工激励计划从会议议程里撤掉了，我觉得你搞混了这两件事。 纳斯达克上市只是需要时间，还在走流程。 股东大会通过了股份发行授权，这是为了双上市流动性做准备。 新董事的决议案也是必须的。他们就是在逐项打勾完成清单。
- English · 原文OFC I'm aware. But I'm personally sleeping comfortably since I have conviction in my hyperscaler mapping research with $SIVE. And yes, I still have my million+ share position. Not sure if people realize this: but I'm only here to share my thoughts/ideas. I don't control market volatility, what decisions you all make, or how markets react to new information synthesis. It's much safer for analysts to just reactively tag along Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan/Goldman Sachs research whenever it's created and just summarize. Rather than coming up with new ideas from OSINT mapping and waiting them get validated. Because when you discover a new angle: Everyone keeps heatedly debating topics of 4-6 inch InP fabs, employee count, who their hyperscaler customers are, volume ramp timelines, etc to try and play devils advocate with a thesis. Then actively monitoring every single 5-20% price movement. I'm forced to stay on this topic more since it's less validated + there's always heated discussions. Just like $EWY in Feb, which I did memory projections on + Helium/LNG/Oil analysis. But months later everyone sees memory looks structural with Micron's 16+ LTAs and LNG isn't taking down SK Hynix margins. Or $NBIS from last year in terms of sum-of-parts / dilution structures vs $IREN. And now it's close to ATHs and listed on $QQQ. I'm personally just waiting Sivers to volume ramp in 2027 + listing on NASDAQ to support their M&A efforts. So they can walk down the same path as $LITE when they scaled from $3B to $60B+.中文 · 翻译我当然知道。但我个人睡得挺安稳，因为我对自己的超大规模数据中心映射研究有底气，而且持有 $SIVE。 没错，我还是拿着那一百多万股的头寸。 不知道大家有没有意识到：我来这里就是分享我的想法和观点。 我控制不了市场波动，也管不了你们怎么做决定，更左右不了市场对新信息整合的反应。 对分析师来说，最安全的做法就是摩根士丹利/摩根大通/高盛一出报告就跟着附和，然后总结一下。 而不是自己从开源情报（OSINT）映射里琢磨新想法，再等它们被验证。 因为当你发现一个新角度时： 每个人都在激烈争论 4-6 英寸磷化铟晶圆厂、员工数量、他们的超大规模客户是谁、产能爬坡时间线等等，就为了跟你唱反调。 然后还要时刻盯着每一个 5%-20% 的价格波动。 我不得不更频繁地讨论这个标的，因为它还没被充分验证，而且总是有激烈的争论。就像 2 月的 $EWY，我当时做了内存预测，还分析了氦气/液化天然气/石油。 但几个月后，大家看到内存结构变得稳固（美光签了 16 份以上的长期协议），液化天然气也没把 SK 海力士的利润打下来。 还有去年的 $NBIS，当时在谈分部估值/摊薄结构 vs $IREN。 现在它接近历史新高，还进了 $QQQ 指数。 我本人只是在等 Sivers 在 2027 年产能爬坡，并在纳斯达克上市来支持他们的并购活动。 这样他们就能走 $LITE 当年的路——从 30 亿美元市值涨到 600 亿美元以上。
- English · 原文@JClaydog Yeah sad to see. I'm personally very confident in $SIVE / $AAOI to revenue ramp with lasers in 2027 so I'm sleeping easy.中文 · 翻译@JClaydog 是啊，看着挺难过的。 我个人对 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 在 2027 年靠激光业务实现营收增长非常有信心，所以晚上睡得挺安稳的。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe Nice! Ill check out the specs now for $JBL + $SIVE https://t.co/psjeaFVx8f中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 不错！我现在去查查 $JBL 和 $SIVE 的规格参数 https://t.co/psjeaFVx8f
- English · 原文@dpkim19 Quote from $SIVE earnings transcript: "50% to 60%+ gross margins once we are firmly and predominantly product revenue driven." https://t.co/2NpjbQIyZC中文 · 翻译@dpkim19 引用 $SIVE 财报电话会议纪要："一旦我们坚定且主要依靠产品收入驱动，毛利率将达 50% 到 60% 以上。" https://t.co/2NpjbQIyZC
- English · 原文@aa11231ggagaa44 Do you mean InP fab? I'm not sure why people are trying to compare InP fabs, $SIVE is not mass producing lasers in-house. They're using Win Semi and foundries, Sivers is a fabless designer so they don't need capex. They do have a fab for development.中文 · 翻译@aa11231ggagaa44 你指的是 InP 晶圆厂吧？我不太明白为什么大家老拿 InP 晶圆厂来比——$SIVE 自己并没有大规模生产激光器。 他们用的是 Win Semi 和代工厂，Sivers 是一家无晶圆厂设计公司，所以不需要资本开支。 他们的确有一个用于研发的小型晶圆厂。
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO. With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO. If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens. Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)中文 · 翻译Poet OSINT 社群挖到的新有趣线索： 看起来 $POET / $SIVE 很可能要拿下全球前三的云巨头之一（亚马逊、微软、谷歌中的一家）。 线索来自 Lumilens 的 CEO Ankur Singla 在 LinkedIn 上的一则更新。 他说他们的客户就是前三的云巨头之一，而且那条帖子的重点是 CPO/NPO。 顺着这条线索，考虑到 PoET 用的是 CPO Scale Out/NPO，Sivers 的连续波 DFB 光源方案比其它 EML 供应商的可能性更大。 如果你忘了提一下：Sivers 是 Poet 的激光光源供应商。而 Poet 和 Lumilens 之间有采购协议。 在官方确认之前，能从公开信息里挖到这种潜在的大线索，总是很有意思。（披露：做多 Sivers）
- English · 原文OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.中文 · 翻译每次看OpenLight（未上市），感觉它规模越来越大了。 如果你好奇他们在Advantest之外的公开生态系统： $JBL（$SIVE的合作伙伴）负责扩大PIC规模 $MRVL和$MXL负责DSP $TSEM负责晶圆代工。 $300394.SZ / TFC Optical（封测/组件组装） 如果你不是合格投资者，往往能通过公开股票间接参与未上市公司的成长。 毕竟光学玩家之间的关联度非常高。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文$SIVE + Aeva likely coded from the new PR today and SIVE + Apple. For Sivers lasers powering robotics / physical AI. -> Sivers lasers powering Boston Dynamics Atlas via. LG Innotek for robotics -> Nvidia Hyperion ecosystem w/ Sivers lasers for physical AI. Are possible paths with Aeva. Apple likely using Sivers also reiterated from the newer webpage: “Optical sensing modules for wearables” from biometric and health monitoring. They just can’t namedrop partners due to confidentiality, but consumer sensing is probably the biggest tell. Physical AI and mass consumer production with Apple would be very material to revenue.中文 · 翻译$SIVE + Aeva 大概率是从今天的新 PR 里推断出来的，以及 $SIVE + Apple。 关于 Sivers 激光器为机器人 / 具身 AI 提供动力。 → Sivers 激光器通过 LG Innotek 为波士顿动力 Atlas 提供动力，用于机器人领域 → Nvidia Hyperion 生态系统中搭载 Sivers 激光器，用于具身 AI。 这些都是与 Aeva 可能展开的路径。 Apple 也很有可能使用 Sivers，这在较新的网页上得到了重申： “用于可穿戴设备的光学传感模块”——来自生物识别与健康监测。 他们只是出于保密原因不能直接点名合作伙伴，但消费级传感大概是最明显的信号。 具身 AI 加上与 Apple 的大规模消费级生产，对营收来说会是非常实质性的推动。
- English · 原文@TradingTh3Trend This is likely just a PR to support $SIVE + $AAPL relationships to combat false short seller claims the relationship was terminated. They've likely been working with Apple for quite some time, not really entering the market.中文 · 翻译@TradingTh3Trend 这很可能只是用来支持 $SIVE 和 $AAPL 关系的一则公关稿，目的是反击空头散播的“合作关系已终止”的假消息。 他们和苹果应该已经合作了相当一段时间了，并不是刚进入这个市场。
- English · 原文@jeongpark0509 No price target, but I like to keep in mind: $LITE went from 2.88B MC in 2024, to $67B MC in 2026. Just took 2 years and $SIVE is around the same starting point as Lumentum today.中文 · 翻译@jeongpark0509 没给目标价，但我心里记得： $LITE 从 2024 年的 28.8 亿市值，涨到 2026 年的 670 亿市值。 也就花了两年，而 $SIVE 今天的起点跟 Lumentum 当初差不多。
- English · 原文@eldan_0123 @CreatorNim Don’t think so. $JBL + $SIVE was known from OFC conference in person. But it took an official PR for markets to know. If there any release over the more higher confidence mapping to $NVDA cpo ecosystem, I’d expect it to rerate a lot more中文 · 翻译@eldan_0123 @CreatorNim 不觉得。$JBL + $SIVE 是从 OFC 现场会议里得知的。 但市场要等官方 PR 出来才知道。 如果后续有发布跟 $NVDA CPO 生态更确定的相关消息，我预计它会重新定价不少。
- English · 原文That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.中文 · 翻译这是一种误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光供应商，不仅仅是 CPO 规模化的配套。 可插拔、规模化 CPO（Scale out CPO）、Scale up CPO、NPO 等等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 联手开挂，用 CW 激光器开发出了 1.6T 光收发器。 有效绕开了 EML 瓶颈，甚至还提升了能效。 从 Jabil 管理层的说法来看，他们打造了一个"相对显著的护城河"。 所以在下一代 1.6T 可插拔收发器上，Sivers 看起来立刻就会被用上。 市场也忽略了这一细节：Jabil 发布公告后，其他可插拔厂商也找上门了，SIVE 现在正在跟他们合作（很可能是联合开发、认证阶段）。 没有太多做光收发器的厂商是像 Lumentum 那样垂直整合的（想想：Innolight/eoptolink 之类的）。 所以这些都是在推进中的开发项目，只是还没公开披露，随时可能出新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的规模化 CPO，比如 $POET 这类玩家，$SIVE 是它们的激光供应商。 - Scale up CPO 则是在 2027 年下半年，来自 Ayar 和英伟达的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，那才是光器件玩家们的主要放量阶段。 但这时候，从供应链图谱来看，$SIVE 看起来碾压了其他所有对手。 因为他们很可能从很久以前就开始跟 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等公司一起研发设计，那时这些公司还很小。 而且还有像这样的： 对于 $GFS 这类代工厂来说，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 这还没算上 O-Net 这样的大公司正在用 $SIVE 构建 ELS，很可能是面向亚洲超大规模数据中心供应链的。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器隘口长线标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，新的光架构里到处都有他们的影子。
- English · 原文I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.中文 · 翻译最近好多人在问我 OE Solutions (138080) 这家公司。 这是我目前的研究和想法： 这是一家韩国的小型光收发器公司，跟 $AAOI 有点像。 而且他们已经成为全球为数不多的 EML 玩家之一（比如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），手握稀缺的 100G EML 激光器产能，专门用于 800G/1.6T。 OE 看起来不光想造 EML，还想做完整的收发器。他们已经有了成品 ELSFP CPO 产品，配上 UHP CW 激光器，Q3 开始送样。 同样地，OE 似乎也在整完整的 ELSFP 方案，而不是只卖 CW 激光晶粒，这样能抢到更多市场份额。 所以你可以把它理解成"韩国版的 AAOI"，但用的是 EML 而不是 CW，产能和认证方面还差点火候，目前是在追赶世界其他玩家。 时间线上来看： 1. 23dBm 制冷的 ELSFP 样品，2026 年 Q3 开始送样 2. 800G 的销售基础，2027 年 1.6T "全面发力" 3. 2027 年 H2 末、2028 年 H1 及以后，ELSFP 可能进入放量生产 而且从他们 2025 年投资者简报片段来看，似乎还在搞 200G EML 能力——简报里提到"100GBaud EML / 200G PAM"。考虑到他们的 IP 和 demo，这个方向挺有戏。 ELS 才刚发布不久，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器大概率也是 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的光子学国家队，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和那些更大的玩家。 （持仓披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 仓位。这只是基本面研究，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。） 关于 OE Solutions 的估值： 1. 这些增长方向目前似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人真正理解他们在做什么。 3. 良率数据有些不清晰。 1. 客户方面：现在其实正处于 EML/CW 激光器大缺货周期，所以任何独立的产能都会被抢着要。我个人觉得他们找客户不难。我甚至认为他们造出来的东西可能都会被扫货，还会获得韩国政府的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为市值小 + 韩国上市，很多美国机构根本够不上门槛。我也觉得没多少人真正理解他们在搞什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 公布的晶圆/模组利用率很低（我记得大概有 31% 的产能闲置），所以他们在需要砸资本开支之前，光靠现有的产能就能产生可观的收入。 至于 EML/CW 以及其他良率，我也不太确定。可能得直接去问公司。 这是不是一家随便的烂公司？不是。人家做光收发器已经超过 20 年了，在美国和荷兰都有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长方向看起来要到明年才爆发，而且主要取决于产能和良率。 我个人觉得，如果 EML/CW 技术被收购的话，它的价值可能远超目前市值。 尤其是被那些想垂直整合 EML（用于可插拔模块）和 CW 激光器（用于 CPO）的大玩家收购。 市场可能在等 Q3 送样后的认证结果或者营收预期公告，才敢下定论。 总结我的想法： 去年就有朋友讨论过这家公司，当时可能太早了。两个月前看到评论区热闹起来，依然太早。 我现在还是觉得早，但到了 Q3 和 Q4 可能就会变得有意思起来。我个人认为它的风险比 $SIVE 这种深度嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和一堆超大规模供应商的 CPO 大玩家要高得多。$SIVE 还有 Win Semi 等公司在帮忙摊薄量产风险。 而 OE Solutions 看起来更像是一个新手玩家，想照着 $AAOI 的模式去造光收发器，但走的又是主权 EML 和 CW 激光器路线，面向 CPO 产品。 现在关于客户和量产爬坡的问题还有很多没解答，这本身就有实质风险。 但如果你相信韩国能建立 800G/1.6T 收发器 EML 供应链，以及带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP 方案。 那么 OE Solutions 或许值得一看。我还在继续研究这家公司，目前只是初步想法。
- English · 原文In terms of personal notes: 1. Priortech owns 21% of $CAMT, ~1.35x their MC, seems more like holding co. 2. Bit Digital people kept shouting, but NAV discount is not clean $WYFI, lot of dilution + not AI parent. 3. Wistron (3231) is the best one I've seen since $SIVE + Ayar + Wiwynn are one of my favorite trio. ~$16.2B MC, Q1 revenue up a ridiculous amount with 144% Y/Y growth. Owns 35.46% of Wiwynn, which is ~0.66x of MC. I'd expect Wiwynn to keep on growing. 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 does own 46.64% of GlobalWafers (6488). MC is $3.5B, stake value is ~$7.9B, but not exactly growing too fast independently, though it's heavily trading heavily discount to NAV. 5. Iljin Holdings owns 42.99% of Iljin Electric, it's ~$0.22B MC vs. ~$1.13B NAV holding. This was transformer/cable DC related. But again idk if I trust korean stocks for NAV unlock, probably better for activist investors. 6. Simmtech Holdings was ~$0.17B MC vs. ~$1.0B of parent, which also looks ridiculous. So 6x+ NAV. PCB substrate related name. Also another prob don't trust korean governance type name. I think both $ACMR and WUS have H-Share subsidiary listing soon, and those were the biggest NAV discounts with independent growth. Then you have a highly successful activist going after WUS so I'd expect some middle ground there. So maybe I'll put more concentration into those on top of what I already own Monday, we'll see. And Wistron was growing very fast independently. I'm still doing research, normally this goes in shower thoughts since I haven't formally made a conclusion, but thought others might be interested.中文 · 翻译个人笔记： 1. Priortech 持有 $CAMT 21% 的股份，大概是他们市值的 1.35 倍，看起来更像是一家控股公司。 2. Bit Digital 的人一直在喊，但 NAV 折价并不干净 $WYFI，稀释严重 + 不是 AI 母公司。 3. Wistron (3231) 是我自 $SIVE 以来见过最棒的，加上 Ayar 和 Wiwynn 是我最喜欢的三巨头。 ~$162 亿市值，第一季度营收同比增长 144%，高得离谱。 持有 Wiwynn 35.46% 的股份，大约是市值的 0.66 倍。我预计 Wiwynn 会继续增长。 4. Sin-American Silicon 5483 持有 GlobalWafers (6488) 46.64% 的股份。 市值 $35 亿，持股价值约 $79 亿，不过它自身增长不算太快，虽然相对于 NAV 折价交易严重。 5. Iljin Holdings 持有 Iljin Electric 42.99% 的股份，市值约 $2.2 亿，NAV 持仓约 $11.3 亿。这是跟变压器/电缆数据中心相关的。 但话说回来，我不确定能不能相信韩国股票会实现 NAV 折价修复，可能更适合激进投资者。 6. Simmtech Holdings 市值约 $1.7 亿，而母公司约 $10 亿，这看起来也很离谱。 所以是 6 倍多的 NAV。PCB 基板相关的名字。这又是个可能不太信韩国治理风格的名字。 我觉得 $ACMR 和 WUS 很快都会有 H 股子公司上市，这些是最大的 NAV 折价且能独立增长的标的。 然后有个非常成功的激进投资者在追 WUS，所以我估计会有些折中方案。 所以也许我会在周一现有持仓基础上，再集中加仓这些，再看看吧。而且 Wistron 自身增长非常快。 我还在做研究，通常这算是洗澡时的胡思乱想，因为我还没正式下结论，但觉得别人可能会感兴趣。
- English · 原文非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！ 总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。 又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。 而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！ 不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文@00000sol0 True, headline difference: Serenity Research takes a stake in $SIVE, what a big deal! "Serenity" took a stake in $SIVE, must be a retail meme.中文 · 翻译@00000sol0 对，标题的差别： Serenity Research 入股了 $SIVE，多大的事儿啊！ "Serenity" 入股了 $SIVE，肯定是散户的 meme。
- English · 原文Mizuho Research: No delays on CPO or 800v dc. Revised up optical engine projections from $NVDA demand ramp. - Next phase in CPO for long term, believes InP DFB lasers remains the focus (hello $SIVE). VSCEL and microLED remain "unproven" in short distance in rack + chip to chip for 1.6T+ - HVDC deployment on track, 800VDC incremental volume 2027, with higher penetration in 2028. What a stupid CPO related selloff recently.中文 · 翻译瑞穗研究：CPO 或 800V 直流电没有延迟。 由于 $NVDA 需求爬坡，上调了光学引擎预估。 - CPO 的下一阶段是长期方向，他们认为 InP DFB 激光器仍然是重点（你好啊 $SIVE）。VSCEL 和 microLED 在 1.6T+ 的机架内短距离 + 芯片到芯片场景中仍然"未经证实"。 - HVDC 部署按计划进行，800V 直流电增量产出在 2027 年，2028 年渗透率更高。 最近这波跟 CPO 有关的抛售真是蠢到家了。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe Yep, I would not be surprised if $AMD signed LTAs with $SIVE given the new Trendforce report that they're going around trying to secure CW laser capacity.中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 是的，如果 $AMD 因为 TrendForce 那份新报告、四处寻求锁定 CW 激光产能，而跟 $SIVE 签下长期协议的话，我一点都不会意外。
- English · 原文@aletir99 When has US investors ever cared about what people in Sweden think? I still think $SIVE has the potential to be the next $75B $LITE if they follow the same M&A route after NASDAQ Listing.中文 · 翻译@aletir99 美国投资者什么时候在乎过瑞典人怎么想了？ 我仍然觉得 $SIVE 有潜力成为下一个 750 亿美元的 $LITE，只要他们上了纳斯达克之后走同样的并购路线。
- English · 原文Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.中文 · 翻译回顾一下2025年那些天马行空的想法，挺有意思的。 那个时候，$AAOI市值20亿美元，$LITE市值260亿美元，$AXTI市值5亿美元。 现在： - AAOI市值153.7亿美元 - Lumentum市值744.7亿美元 - AXT市值72.4亿美元 当时信息更少，毕竟还是个早期主题。 当然，随着更多细节浮出水面，ASIC项目的一些细微差别可能被我忽略了。 但方向上看，很高兴我的主题思路最终是正确的。 看着现在市值30亿美元的光学多头标的，比如$SIVE，感觉就像是既视感。
- English · 原文Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.中文 · 翻译反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
- English · 原文New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.中文 · 翻译最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。 并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息） 明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。 也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。 我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。 这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
- English · 原文Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.中文 · 翻译Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。 然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。 每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。 再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。 甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。 现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。 一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
- English · 原文$SIVE is likely laser ramping with $AEVA soon and $AAPL with their next refresh of Apple Watches after their recent announcement. Haven’t seen anything credible to disprove that. There’s some people without technical depth conflating TASC sensors with future Apple Watches using lasers, and don’t understand NRE volumes can carry forward years too. AI DCs for photonics are $SIVE main focus though, anything else like Apple is a cherry on top.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 很可能很快就要和 $AEVA 一起激光爬坡，加上 $AAPL 最近宣布之后的下一次 Apple Watch 更新。 目前还没看到任何可靠信息能反驳这一点。 有些缺乏技术深度的人把 TASC 传感器和未来的激光版 Apple Watch 混为一谈，也不明白 NRE 量产能延续多年。 不过 AI 数据中心的光电子才是 $SIVE 的主要方向，像 Apple 这类业务只是锦上添花。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
- English · 原文@NicoRicci01 Nothing? Just waiting for $SIVE general meeting to happen.中文 · 翻译@NicoRicci01 没啥动静？就在等 $SIVE 的股东大会召开。
- English · 原文@hisarchive lol I’m super bullish on my $SIVE position too. > EU macro positive > $LITE + laser group up 4-6% overnight trading from InP bottleneck easing > possible Nasdaq listing timeline announcement today We’ll see what happens.中文 · 翻译@hisarchive 哈哈，我对我的 $SIVE 头寸也超级看好。 > 欧盟宏观面利好 > $LITE 加上激光板块，隔夜交易涨了 4-6%，原因是 InP 瓶颈缓解 > 今天可能会宣布纳斯达克上市时间表 我们等着瞧吧。
- English · 原文This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.中文 · 翻译这话估计会让很多人不爽： 但说白了，技术分析就是交易员的占星术。 它不过是对进场点的确认偏差 + 交易心理学。 就像当初有人提前埋伏 $SPCE 的 $SPCX IPO，指望着散户因为交易心理搞错股票代码一样。 $SIVE 涨了 1900%，可不是因为有人拿什么“黄金交叉太空彗星喷火龙蜡烛图”忽悠你花 499 美元买的那个东西。 它涨是因为市场在定价 $JBL、$GFS 宣布的未来营收。 $AXTI 涨了 8000%，也不是因为什么金色瀑布蜡烛图警报在 8 块钱时响起来了。 它涨是因为 InP 衬底、ASP 提价博弈、出口管制、光子学需求等等等等。 如果你想摸清其他韭菜心里在想什么，那用技术分析还行。 但要是为了判断真正的上涨空间……拉倒吧。 过去不知道多少个月人们一直给 $IREN 画 $120+ 的技术分析，但那些狗屁都没用，当你有 60 亿美元的 ATM 要先消化完。 它靠的是主题（比如 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的关系），任何影响未来营收的新闻催化剂、预期、宏观消息、财报、流通盘动态等等。 然后你就能推导出这家公司市值该是多少。 所以，进场点嘛，你可以用 TA。 但要判断股票往哪走，就把那些霸王龙欧米茄绿蜡烛指标扔窗外吧。
- English · 原文@KingDavidvs It’s for Nasdaq listing liquidity requirements and M&A, very positive since I want to see $SIVE trade on US markets.中文 · 翻译@KingDavidvs 这是为了满足纳斯达克上市的流动性要求和并购，非常积极，因为我希望看到 $SIVE 在美国市场交易。
- English · 原文@JaaidevV I personally like $SIVE, usually the same names keep on compounding like $SNDK if they’re important to AI? I’m not selling a share, since it looks like we’re only at the start of the next supercycle.中文 · 翻译@JaaidevV 我个人看好 $SIVE，通常那些名字会像 $SNDK 一样持续复利增长，如果它们对 AI 很重要的话？ 我一股都不会卖，因为我们看起来才刚进入下一个超级周期的起点。
- English · 原文@uberlag Wow it’s cool to see $SIVE on CNBC now! I’m surprised it’s up there lol中文 · 翻译@uberlag 哇，现在看到 $SIVE 上 CNBC 了，挺酷的！有点意外它能上去哈 lol
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文I like $SIVE中文 · 翻译我喜欢 $SIVE
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译说白了就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户冲得太早了，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 上几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在，你会看到摩根大通、富达研究这些活跃机构出现在股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生过同样的事。 > 我当时指出机构累积持仓接近<30%，还说过他们想要更多筹码。 > 机构把流通盘大部分都吃掉了 > 当时一堆负面文章，现在全是利好，股价还创新高。 两年前是 $RKLB > 我 $16 的时候就做多了，但机构分析师一直在给历史最低的目标价，叫散户卖，尽管它的火箭复用率那么高。 > 散户卖了，机构持仓却堆上去了 > 现在又创新高 我看好 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有人暗示你在 $HIMX 旁边、以 25 亿美元估值就卖掉它。 所以如果你看到卖方的负面报告，或者一波莫名其妙的坏消息，那可能是个好信号——他们需要流动性。 最近一些小型对冲基金已经急到甚至可能在 X 上用机器人农场来喊散户卖股票了，哈哈……我最近刚揭露过这事。 不管怎样，这也是为什么我花大量时间研究具体个股，这样人们才能在噪声中建立自己的信念。 不幸的是，这就是现代流动性周期/转移（美国散户 → 机构）运作的一部分，是生活的常态。 它们从来就不是为散户的利益服务的。
- English · 原文Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i中文 · 翻译高兴看到光学板块的股票，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，都在按照应有的节奏小幅回升。 一开始的那波下跌简直是无厘头。https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
- English · 原文@veggiepoultry That’s correct with $SIVE and Blackrock after MSCI/nasdaq. Blackrock is passive and tracks sivers based on MC. Fidelity Research is their active investment arm, so that’s not passive.中文 · 翻译@veggiepoultry 对的，$SIVE 和 Blackrock 在纳入 MSCI/纳斯达克之后就是这样。Blackrock 是被动型基金，按市值跟踪 Sivers。 Fidelity Research 是他们主动投资的部门，所以那不是被动型。
- English · 原文Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing. Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too. Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions… Then bought ~5.25% of the company? This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.中文 · 翻译对，贝莱德在指数上市后，已经以被动持有者的身份建仓了 $SIVE。 富达研究也现身了，开始直接持有 Sivers 的头寸。 还记得上个月摩根大通带着小仓位出现吗…… 然后买了公司大约 5.25% 的股份？ 看起来像是美国机构认可了 Sivers 在光子学领域的地位，正在试图积累仓位。
- English · 原文I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583中文 · 翻译我并不觉得 $AAOI、$LITE 或 $SIVE 那边的 photonics 会很快消失… 只是波动实在太大了。 不管怎样，好奇大家今天在买什么？https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
- English · 原文@TalentActivity I do really like $GFS, $JBL, and others tied with $SIVE. They’re all just kinda large by now, and less chance to triple. If I were running a hedge fund I’d pick up Jabil, it I’m personally maximizing returns + don’t like options on higher IV equities.中文 · 翻译@TalentActivity 我确实很喜欢 $GFS、$JBL，还有跟 $SIVE 有关的其他标的。 不过它们现在体量都不小了，翻三倍的机会没那么大。 如果我是在管对冲基金，我会买 Jabil，但个人角度我在追求收益最大化，而且不喜欢做高波动率股票的期权。
- English · 原文A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE: Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace). This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication. The bigger implication is not the contract size: But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial). Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract. Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers... This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)中文 · 翻译$SIVE 今天迎来了一个巨大的催化剂： Sivers 宣布开始获得面向太空应用（allspace）的 820 万美元批量订单。 这是用于驱动太空 LEO/多轨道卫星通信的波束赋形 IC。 更重要的不是合同金额本身—— 而是 Sivers 现在通过 allspace 的收购，为 $YSS 旗下更大的国防主承包商提供支持（类似于 $MRVL 与 Celestial 的设计导入）。 这对 Sivers 来说，往往意味着后续会有更多追加订单 + 批量合同，而不仅仅只是这一份。 原来 Sivers 在光子学 AI 数据中心激光器之外，同时也是太空 / 国防供应链中的一个关键瓶颈（赶在 SpaceX IPO 之前）... 除了这次胜利，我还期待他们光子学这边很快也会有更多批量爬坡（说的就是 Jabil 和其他可插拔模块厂商）。
- English · 原文Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)中文 · 翻译随便瞎想：$JBL 看起来是个挺有吸引力的长期标的，市值 $380 亿。 我不太觉得市场已经把他们在 1.6T LRO 可插拔收发器业务上的潜力算进去了。 特别是如果问题的关键是 "以 $SIVE 为瓶颈的 2027 年上半年，你能赚多少"，而不是 "需求够不够大"。 他们已经铺好了庞大的供应链……而且接手了 $INTC 的可插拔产线。 相比 $AAOI 靠融资砸钱建激光晶圆厂，这套模式似乎更可规模化——只要你手里有 $SIVE，再加上一堆不同的晶圆厂（比如 Win Semi 和其他）一起量产激光器，剩下的交给 $JBL 搞定。 那你等于白捡了一个类似 Innolight 的架构（还带美国溢价），而且已经有一条经过超大规模客户验证的供应链。 我现在没持仓，只是抛个想法，供别人去做研究。 大概 2027 年上半年大家才会开始反应过来。可能 40% 的重新定价听起来合理？ （目前没有任何持仓，纯粹是个想法）
- English · 原文@LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.中文 · 翻译@LightLogix 我的意思是…… > $SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器 > $SIVE 提供 1.6T LRO 激光方案，配合 $JBL 以及众多可插拔厂商 > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > 很可能是 $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial 搭配 $NVDA NVLink > 大概率 $SIVE 也会进入 $AMD 的 CPO 生态系统 这是个非常吸引人的做多逻辑。
- English · 原文@_king142 It's primarily just new news of US institutional accumulation of 5%+ of the company. Whether it's JPM asset management or hedge funds using JPM, since US retail doesn't have access to synthetic exposure to $SIVE.中文 · 翻译@_king142 主要就是有美国机构累积持仓这家公司 5% 以上的新闻。 不管是摩根大通资管还是用摩根大通的对冲基金，因为美国散户接触不到 $SIVE 的合成敞口。
- English · 原文I think the implications of JP Morgan's disclosure of buying 5.25%+ of $SIVE is a lot greater than people think. > $135M is pennies to US institutions. They can easily acquire 25% with their capital. They're just constrained by the amount of float that's available from retail to buy. > Signals to other institutions that other large institutions are buying up the float. Which triggers more institutional interest. > Given float is heavily shorted by Swedish Hedge Funds and random algorithmic ones. If large US institutions like JP Morgan are starting to buying the float, it's a blaring signal to start and cover. Of course, most of all, this is validating thesis of giving ideas to retail first to frontrun the institutions + the next CPO supercycle.中文 · 翻译我觉得摩根大通披露买入了$SIVE 5.25%以上股份，这件事的影响远比大家想的要大。 > 1.35亿美元对美国机构来说就是毛毛雨。他们手里的资本，轻轻松松就能拿下25%。 只是被市场上散户能卖出的流通量给限制住了。 > 这等于向其他机构释放信号：有大型机构正在扫货流通盘。 然后就会引发更多机构的兴趣。 > 考虑到这股的流通盘被瑞典对冲基金和一些量化策略基金大举做空。 如果像摩根大通这样的大型美国机构开始买入流通股，那就是一个明确的信号——该回补了。 当然，最重要的是，这验证了我们先给散户提供思路、让他们抢在机构前面布局的逻辑，再加上即将到来的 CPO 超级周期。
- English · 原文Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers. Just in the last month alone. First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers. https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM中文 · 翻译$SIVE 在摩根大通（机构）买了 5%+ 持股权的消息下只涨 3.36%，挺意外的。 光过去一个月内。 这是 Sivers 流通股被大机构买入的首个重要信号。https://t.co/eSfKSQCEhM
- English · 原文On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx中文 · 翻译关键点：$NVDA 的CEO还特别提到了硅光子（光网络）与存储结合。 并表示英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对于硅光子供应链来说，从$SIVE（如今已是英伟达上游生态系统的一部分）到$SOI，是一个多么看好的信号啊。 https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
- English · 原文Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.中文 · 翻译不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键看结构。 如果你是在做一笔 $6 亿的 ATM 融资，用来建激光器晶圆产能，在 2027 年上半年每个月 4.71 亿美元（较低市值区间）的节奏下跟 $AAOI 合作，那这就是增厚型的。 如果你是为了满足纳斯达克上市要求，用 $SIVE 稀释 15%，然后把募集资金拿去做并购，那也是增厚型的。 如果你跟 $IQE 一起稀释，通过跟 $MTSI 做私募来清掉过去的有毒债务，那也是增厚型的。 但如果你是像 $IREN 那样，一次稀释 $60 亿，然后大概率趁 $SLNH / $BKKT 的托们每次拉升时把这些股抛到公开市场上——而这些小散里多数最后都归零了——那这就是掠夺性的。
- English · 原文If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized). I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name. So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.中文 · 翻译如果你好奇的话： $4649 对应 107,894,491（超过 1 亿！）次曝光。 所有这些钱都会用于救助流浪狗，之后会做大额捐赠！ 大概是每救一只狗 $600，所以这个数额会随着 Serenity 粉丝数的增长等比扩大。 我也相信我应该靠投资 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 在股市赚钱，而不是从粉丝身上赚钱。 尤其是我自己觉得投资水平还够。 所以我从来觉得没必要设高门槛付费或者做付费广告。（就算不赚钱我也会这么干）。 能靠每天发发观点玩玩就帮到我在意的事，我很开心。 而且我最近看到很多粉丝以我的名义向本地收容所捐款。 所以真心谢谢你们，这让我很满足。
- English · 原文@Camilogicly Exactly why I keep telling Swedish hedge funds not to go short on $SIVE. Since buying the entire Sivers float is spare change to US institutions and hyperscalers. Especially given their role in photonics.中文 · 翻译@Camilogicly 我一直在跟瑞典的对冲基金说，别做空 $SIVE，就是这个原因。 因为对美国的机构和超大规模数据中心来说，把整个 Sivers 的流通盘买下来不过是零钱。 更何况他们还在光电子领域有战略地位。
- English · 原文@SEONHYE1101 Yes in the sense that US institutions are trying to buy up $SIVE. No in the sense that I’m not sure how JP Morgan to buy 5%+ of $SIVE as a company. Maybe enough retail investors capitulated and transferred their shares to institutions.中文 · 翻译@SEONHYE1101 是的，从美国机构正在试图买入 $SIVE 这个角度来看。 不是的，从我不确定摩根大通是怎么买入 $SIVE 公司 5% 以上股份这个角度来看。 也许是足够多的散户投资者投降了，把他们的股票转给了机构。
- English · 原文Sigh. I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen. Enough retail holders got shaken off, and now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional). JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month to 5%+ ownership this month…中文 · 翻译唉。 我一直跟散户还有瑞典那帮对冲基金说，$SIVE 对 CPO 有多重要，可没人听。 散户持仓被洗掉了一大堆，结果现在摩根大通趁机买了一大笔 Sivers 的股份（全是机构资金）。 摩根大通从上个月持股 0.4%，直接干到这个月 5% 以上……
- English · 原文@Ailisatlx @zGwmby "Eric Andersson chose to end his employment during the month of May." The founding co-manager of that hedge fund quitting is probably a big sign their firms is going under from $SIVE going up.中文 · 翻译@Ailisatlx @zGwmby "埃里克·安德森选择在五月离职。" 那只对冲基金的联合创始经理辞职，很可能是一个大信号——他们的公司要从 $SIVE 上涨中垮掉了。
- English · 原文@zGwmby At this rate their firm is going under being YTD -31.02% from $SIVE. https://t.co/oqh6g6fWjj中文 · 翻译@zGwmby 按这个速度下去，他们公司今年从 $SIVE 那已经亏了 31.02%，快撑不住了。https://t.co/oqh6g6fWjj
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文H1 2027 all the 1.6T pluggable players like $JBL. Maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other pluggable players are added too. We'll find out soon since $SIVE said there were undisclosed pluggable players they're working with. H2 2027 for all the main CPO scale up applications from $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem players like Ayar. Markets are forward looking ~8M in advance usually.中文 · 翻译2027年上半年，所有1.6T可插拔的玩家，比如$JBL。 可能Innolight/Eoptolink还有其他可插拔的公司也会加进来。我们很快就会知道，因为$SIVE提到他们还有些没公开的可插拔合作伙伴在谈。 2027年下半年，$NVDA的NVLink CPO生态系统里的玩家（比如Ayar）将全面铺开CPO规模化应用。 市场通常提前大约8个月定价。
- English · 原文$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是我除了 AAOI 以外最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，而且那边有喜剧演员给你提供乐子。 今天，一家叫 Protean Funds 的非技术背景新对冲基金（很可能在做空）跑出来发言了。 说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是凭空想象的。 而就在这之后，$GFS 刚把 $SIVE 列为他们的参考激光器。 （给新读者补充点背景：瑞典很多人只看过去 12 个月的营收，根本不理解未来增长这个概念） 还有就是他们不懂，现在根本就没有任何 CPO 应用已经放量。 所以瑞典的对冲基金一直在做空（其中很多基金，比如 Colosseum / Origo，都已经严重亏损了）。 但是……对于技术派读者来说……从 2026 年下半年到 2028 年，市场空间在 1 年半内从接近 0 飙到 910 亿美元（我们现在已经进入下半年了）。 整体市场空间达到 1410 亿美元（这也是 1 年半内翻了 10 倍以上）……而且 $SIVE 已经通过 $JBL 和其他未公开的可插拔厂家，打入了可插拔市场。 对于这些瑞典本土公司来说，在 $SIVE 即将迎来史上最大拐点之前做空，结局恐怕不会太好看。 放量只是时间问题。
- English · 原文$AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T and follow along Jensen.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 是我目前最看好的美股多头。 我个人的策略是最近每次它跌到 $150、甚至 $170 时就分批加仓。 $JBL 一旦他们为 $SIVE 做的 1.6T LRO 在 2027 上半年进入量产，表现应该会非常好。今天也聊到了 $RDDT。 $MRVL 如果你认为它能达到 1 万亿美元市值，并且跟紧老黄（Jensen）的脚步。
- English · 原文@Frenchie_ They keep fighting with me with everything from $SOI, $RPI, and $SIVE. Then get embarrassed over and over. Idk if they’re going to learn中文 · 翻译@Frenchie_ 他们一直拿 $SOI、$RPI 和 $SIVE 来找我茬。 然后一次又一次被打脸。不知道他们能不能长点记性。
- English · 原文Found this news funny about a new Swedish Hedge fund: Origo’s fund has lost substantial money shorting $SIVE. “The loss is one of the biggest this year" Many of these Swedish hedge funds are now heavily underwater. Just as an accidental byproduct of $SIVE being a core part of the CPO supercycle. Starting to make more sense why there’s a lot of false news being published. Especially if they’re facing infinite losses?中文 · 翻译发现一条关于某瑞典新对冲基金的有趣新闻： Origo 的基金做空 $SIVE 亏了一大笔钱。 "这是今年最大规模的亏损之一" 不少瑞典对冲基金现在都深度浮亏。 这不过是 $SIVE 作为 CPO 超级周期核心组成部分带来的意外副产品。 难怪开始有那么多假新闻被放出来。 尤其是当他们可能面临无限亏损的时候？
- English · 原文It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.中文 · 翻译大公司想随便收购像 $SIVE 这种拿了《芯片法案》资金的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种有政府背景的，其实有点难度。 有些风投部门有时候也会错过机会。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会在六月的投票后入股 $SIVE。
- English · 原文Up to Win Semi and other foundries. Win Semi just did a private placement to scale up capacity, pretty confident they can scale up significant volume for $SIVE. Nobody knows the exact figures for late 2027 or 2028, but confident in one of the world’s leading foundries. But again, even if everyone in the industry mass produces cw, won’t be enough for overall demand. Which is why it’s a bottleneck.中文 · 翻译主要看 Win Semi 和其他代工厂了。Win Semi 刚做了一笔私募来扩产能，它们很有信心能为 $SIVE 大幅提升产量。没人知道 2027 年末或 2028 年的具体数字，但大家对这家全球领先的代工厂有信心。 但再说一次，就算整个行业都大规模量产 cw，也满足不了总需求。 所以这才是瓶颈。
- English · 原文I’m confident in my $SIVE thesis playing out and am not selling a single share. I tried to tell Swedish locals back at 6 SEK how compelling their frontier company was but they all transferred their shares to US retail since they couldn’t understand the concept of forward growth. If US retail want to follow disinformation about a wireless director selling shares like any normal employee would, 3 months ago, back to institutions. At the inflection of CPO/pluggable ramp… They’re free to as well. I’m just trying to combat disinformation by sharing all the nuances.中文 · 翻译我对我的 $SIVE 投资逻辑很有信心，它正在兑现，一股都不会卖。 我早在 6 瑞典克朗的时候就跟瑞典本地人说过，他们这家前沿公司有多厉害，但他们听不进去"前瞻增长"这个概念，都把手里的股票转给了美国散户。 如果美国散户想相信那种关于一个无线业务董事三个月前卖股的谣言——就像任何一个普通员工会做的一样——那就随它回到机构手里去吧。 在 CPO/可插拔模块放量的转折点上……他们也可以选择不参与。 我只是想通过澄清所有细节来对抗这些谣言。
- English · 原文@SidkMena It’s not a monopoly. Just technical dominance over ASIC/Merchant CPO route architectures . And wouldn’t be surprised if other pluggable players created novel 1.6T architectures using $SIVE too.中文 · 翻译@SidkMena 这不是垄断。只是在 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线上掌握了技术主导地位而已。 而且如果其他可插拔玩家也用 $SIVE 搞出新型 1.6T 架构，我一点也不会意外。
- English · 原文@_king142 $SIVE was probably the most recent visible laser chokepoint that’s still being rerated since seem to be in every $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystem partner + merchant/asic cpo supply chains. Maybe passive optical components supply chains in CPO next.中文 · 翻译@_king142 $SIVE 很可能是最近一个比较显眼的激光瓶颈环节，而且目前仍在被重新估价——因为它似乎在每一条 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统的合作伙伴里都有出现，同时也在商用/ASIC CPO 供应链里。 也许下一个就是 CPO 里的无源光学组件供应链了。
- English · 原文Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.中文 · 翻译是啊……我觉得你上游所有半导体供应链的公司都会涨很多。 高盛现在预计，从2025到2030年，四大超大规模云厂商 $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN 的资本开支总和将达到 5.3 万亿美元。 相比一季度财报时预测的 4.5 万亿，已经上调了。 “2026 到 2031 年，总资本开支估计为 7.6 万亿美元。” 这些资金会向上传导到那些小而关键的瓶颈环节，比如 $SIVE（CPO 激光器）、$SOI（硅光子学衬底），还有 Leaderdrive / Harmonic（人形机器人组件）。 等等等等…… AI 板块不会一路上涨， 但当我们从研发/算力建设阶段走向商业化——从 Agent 到物理 AI，再到科学发现——这仅仅是下一场工业革命的开端。
- English · 原文Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho. Which is why they put CPO/Photonics for AI DCs, and niche advanced packaging players on their focus policy.中文 · 翻译欧洲在AI竞赛上根本没机会跟美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的利基垄断/关键节点，以及主权供应链的韧性。 我觉得他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键了。 所以他们才把面向AI数据中心的CPO/光子学、以及利基先进封装厂商列入重点政策。
- English · 原文EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union" - "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics" - "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies - "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies" === More specifically policy specifically focuses on -> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE) -> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…” -> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB) -> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players" -> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework. Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category. Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework. TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now. We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.中文 · 翻译欧盟芯片法案 2.0 提案现已发布。 好消息：光子学现已被确认为欧盟政策的新结构性组成部分。 这对欧盟光子学行业来说，在主题上看涨。 主题上来说： - "‘欧洲芯片计划’的这一新组成部分支持光子集成电路及相关技术的发展" - "在整个联盟内建立并加强光子集成电路技术及其他光子技术的先进设计、原型制造和产业化部署能力" - "拓展联盟的设计能力，包括光子学领域" - "加强现有试点线并开发新的试点线和开放式半导体制造设施，用于光子集成电路及相关光子技术的原型制造和生产" - "开发并维护光子集成电路及相关光子技术的设计库和设计自动化工具" === 具体来说，政策特别聚焦于 → 面向 AI 数据中心的光学共封装（CPO/互连聚焦，对 $SIVE 是看涨信号） → "硅光子……在高带宽数据中心互连中的应用" → "包括共封装和与电子芯片的异构集成、制造设备以及光子集成电路材料平台在内的生产技术能力应得到加强"（$XFAB） → $SOI 在关于欧盟结构性优势的影响分析中被直接提及。"欧盟在 SOI 晶圆方面拥有相对较强的全球地位，Soitec 和 Siltronic 是显著参与者" → $XFAB 也在影响分析中被直接提及，作为创建当前资助框架的一部分。 显然这对 $XFAB 是结构性的利好，因为他们实际上是欧洲硅光子价值链的领导者，并被列为"首创"（FOAK）类别中的一员。 初步解读，这对进入 AI 数据中心的欧盟光子学领导者来说非常积极，符合欧盟政策。我预计光学相关企业将普遍受益于这一框架。 总结：长期来看，欧盟光子学结构性起飞。最积极的确认是，光子学现在已成为欧盟政策的结构性组成部分。 在这份提案发布后，我们很可能在 3-15 个月内（通常在中间某个时间点）看到具体的光子学公司名称出现。市场总体上是前瞻性的。
- English · 原文There's active short sellers probably doubling down on $SIVE. I'd expect them to get wrecked over time. Especially on more announcements. One more surprise $JBL type announcement with someone like Innolight would be interesting. Since Sivers is co-developing/qualifying with more pluggable transceiver partners now, just not named from their earnings transcript.中文 · 翻译现在肯定有活跃的空头在加倍做空 $SIVE。我估计他们迟早要被打脸。 尤其是后续还有更多消息放出来的话。 要是再来一个像 $JBL 那样的意外公告，比如跟 Innolight 之类的公司合作，那就精彩了。 毕竟 Sivers 现在正在跟更多可插拔光模块合作伙伴联合开发/做认证，只是财报里没点名而已。
- English · 原文@siflower That's $NVDA directly. I'm talking about the ASIC/merchant NVLink CPO ecosystem partners. Where $SIVE looks like they're the supplier to everyone.中文 · 翻译@siflower 那是 $NVDA 本身。我说的是指 ASIC/商业 NVLink CPO 生态系统里的合作伙伴。 $SIVE 看起来像是所有人的供应商。
- English · 原文its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.中文 · 翻译供应链已经确认了。我之前就知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资方，所以我觉得他们应该是想在 NVLink 生态这类方向上寻求战略合作。 $AMD 也投了 Ayar，那 $AMD 找 $GFS 做 CPO 这事儿，再加上 Ayar 这边的关系，基本上把 $SIVE 串起来就很容易推理了。 联发科和 $INTC 原来也是 Ayar 的投资方，联发科还在做谷歌的 ASIC。 所以按这个逻辑推下去，接下来可能很快就会有 $SIVE 进入 $GOOGL 供应链的更多消息。
- English · 原文@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong It's expected Celestial and Lightmatter try and multi source. But maybe for gen-1 my guess is a lot sole source / primary source with $SIVE for the $NVDA CPO NVlink ecosystem. Nvidia has their own program with $LITE and $COHR.中文 · 翻译@OGCapital25 @Chi_w_wong 预期 Celestial 和 Lightmatter 会尝试多源供应。 但可能第一代产品，我猜大多是独家或主供，用 $SIVE 来服务 $NVDA 的 CPO NVlink 生态系统。 英伟达自己也跟 $LITE 和 $COHR 有合作项目。
- English · 原文@MindQuest42 If $SIVE were trading at $6-8B valuations today, I wouldn't be surprised. That being said, its still on a Swedish exchange, but NASDAQ listing should close the gap.中文 · 翻译@MindQuest42 如果 $SIVE 现在的估值是 60-80 亿美元，我一点都不会惊讶。 不过话说回来，它现在还在瑞典交易所挂牌，但纳斯达克上市应该会缩小这个差距。
- English · 原文$NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers = laser supplier to entire NVLink CPO ecosystem. People were doubting Sivers connections to Nvidia, but Ayar joining is clearest tie of $SIVE to $NVDA.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 的 CPO 生态系 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天刚加入） $SIVE 百分百确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 有高置信度是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 全都用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是它们的参考激光。 Sivers = 整个 NVLink CPO 生态系的激光供应商。 之前有人质疑 Sivers 跟 Nvidia 的关系，但 Ayar 加入就最清楚地说明了 $SIVE 和 $NVDA 之间的关联。
- English · 原文GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.中文 · 翻译猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
- English · 原文@ConfusedNDazzed There's actually even bigger news for $SIVE today than the EU CHIPS Act policy framework announcements.中文 · 翻译@ConfusedNDazzed 其实今天对 $SIVE 来说，有比欧盟芯片法案政策框架公告更大的消息。
- English · 原文So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised if larger players were there.中文 · 翻译所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经比较成熟了。 我深入看了一下，提案主要围绕 3000 万到 5 亿美元的融资和营收激励，目的是帮助那些还没进入量产的企业过渡到大规模量产阶段。 $SIVE / $XFAB 和这些政策激励更贴合，不过要是大玩家也在里面，我也不会意外。
- English · 原文Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes. To bridge early European companies to volume production. I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries: - $XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM. - and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027. More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.中文 · 翻译欧洲今天（6 月 3 日）发布其《技术主权一揽子计划》。 其中包括《芯片法案 2.0》，预计将优先发展光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 均被列入《产业政策蓝图》，该蓝图指导欧盟立法。 该计划提出主权支持，每家公司可获 3,000 万至 5 亿欧元的融资额度，并设有收入需求激励机制。 旨在帮助欧洲早期公司过渡到量产阶段。 我个人认为我的两个主题思路将大幅受益： - $XFAB，因为他们引领欧洲的硅光子价值链，诺基亚和英伟达正在评估他们进行光子学大规模量产。 - 以及 $SIVE，作为欧洲 AI 数据中心激光器领域的领导者，计划在 2027 年将激光器推向大规模量产。 更多细节将于今日公布，但这对光子学而言是一个结构性利好，对西方、尤其是欧盟供应链至关重要。
- English · 原文@beauty_oe I’m aware! It’s really big news to have $SIVE as the laser supplier to $NVDA nvlink fusion ecosystem. Marvell joined few months ago and look what happened to their market cap after that. I’ll cover it later today!中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 我知道！$SIVE 成为 $NVDA nvlink 融合生态系统的激光供应商，这真是个重磅消息。 Marvell 几个月前才加入，看看他们之后的市值涨成什么样了。 我今天晚点会详细聊聊这个！
- English · 原文$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm中文 · 翻译$LITE 靠着 EML 和可插拔模块，在两年内从 $3B 涨到 $75B 完成了第一波光通信行情。 我的观点是 $SIVE 也能从 $3B 起步做到同样的事，凭借 CPO/可插拔模块和连续波激光器。 Sivers 加上 GFS 的 SiPH 参考激光器消息，再加上今天 54% 的涨幅。 这才只是刚刚开始。 https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.中文 · 翻译@wangxindian @StormDirac 我感觉大家还没意识到 $GFS 这条新闻的分量。 它可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更根本性地具有突破性。 因为所有经过 GFS 硅光子的公司，像是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA，默认的参考设计里都嵌着 $SIVE。
- English · 原文@StormDirac “Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform.” Woah that’s structurally massive news with $SIVE and $GFS.中文 · 翻译@StormDirac "Sivers Semiconductors 的激光阵列将被集成到基于 GF 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。" 哇，这对 $SIVE 和 $GFS 来说，是结构性的重大消息。
- English · 原文Just a heads up, I've uncovered a bot farm with dozens of accounts used to spread disinformation about $SIVE in the past few days. This illegal campaign likely stems geographically from Asia. As these accounts were used to do marketing for the same Asian projects like Alchemy Pay. Or bought brand new bought X accounts. All of which have no activity, but have an abrupt shift in timeline to repeating false claims about selling $SIVE positions and telling others to sell. With some getting caught using AI prompts to create a negative reply. This will be passed along to the SEC for investigation given there's certain traceability logs available. While the regulators investigate, maybe not a good idea follow along false bot farm advice.中文 · 翻译提个醒，我最近发现了一个机器人农场，几十个账号这几天一直在散播关于 $SIVE 的假消息。 这场非法操作的地理源头很可能在亚洲。 因为这些账号之前都在为同样来自亚洲的项目做营销，比如 Alchemy Pay。还有些是刚买的全新 X 账号。 这些账号统统没有正常活动记录，但时间线却突然一转，开始反复散布虚假说法——说自己卖掉了 $SIVE 仓位，还鼓动别人也卖。 更有几个被抓到是用 AI 提示词生成的负面回复。 鉴于某些追溯日志可以获取，我会把这些材料提交给 SEC 调查。 在监管机构调查期间，或许最好别跟着那些机器人农场的瞎建议走。
- English · 原文-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.中文 · 翻译-> 拿下IP -> 就等CPO起飞 $SIVE 是光子学领域的激光要塞，并且已获得如下公开验证： - $GFS（据演示材料，是两家公开激光供应商之一，与 $LITE 一起供应 CPO） - $JBL（用Sivers构建的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”） - 整个公司获得的CHIPS法案资金 最高可见度方面： -> Ayar 是最大的CPO玩家，主要货源来自 $SIVE，预计2027年放量。 -> $POET 是另一个近期的CPO量产玩家，与Sivers有非常高的可见度。 开源情报梳理： $MRVL Celestial（直接，非通过Poet）、Lightmatter、Lightelligence，都是Sivers的高置信度客户。 $SIVE 还在与更多光收发器厂商进行开发和认证，紧随Jabil之后。 感觉它们会出现在每个角落。 我不确定大家是否意识到，一家市值不到20亿美元的激光公司，在2027年放量前夕获得这么多认证，有多不寻常…… 尤其当其他激光公司都在150亿到700亿美元的估值区间交易。 只需要可插拔模块来填补营收缺口，撑到2027年下半年（CPO规模化）。 然后照着 $LITE 的剧本，让每一颗卖出的激光器都更值钱，从而在两个市场中捕获更多TAM。 - 在整体光学领域，未来一年半内TAM为1410亿美元（高盛数据，10倍空间）。 - 而CPO的TAM将在未来一年半内从0增长到810亿美元。 所以，通过向下游收购IP，一夜之间就能轻松把营收机会翻倍。 更多只是等待的游戏，我认为 $SIVE 相对于未来的营收潜力，现在非常被低估。 如果它是一家硅谷的私营初创公司，今天可能值40到60亿美元。 只需要在纳斯达克上市，用溢价来弥合这个差距。
- English · 原文@StormDirac Yeah, it's extremely disingenuous to conflate different architectures, customers timelines. And try to profit off false information with $SIVE. But with Citron and $AAOI, didnt turn out very well shorting optical companies in supercycles.中文 · 翻译@StormDirac 没错，把不同的架构、客户时间线混为一谈，真是太不诚实了。 还想利用虚假信息靠 $SIVE 捞一笔。 不过，看看 Citron 和 $AAOI，在超级周期里做空光通信公司，结果都不怎么好。
- English · 原文@159Adir52550 CPO is largely h2 2027. $JBL already announced timelines for mass production on their 1.6T LRO using $SIVE so that’s material revenue coming in within 3-10m.中文 · 翻译@159Adir52550 CPO 主要是在 2027 年下半年。 $JBL 已经公布了使用 $SIVE 生产 1.6T LRO 的批量时间表，所以这部分实质性收入将在 3 到 10 个月内到账。
- English · 原文Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.中文 · 翻译Ayar 今天和 Wiwynn 的声明，对 $SIVE 来说在 CPO -> 机架级部署这条线上，潜在意义非常大。 因为 Wiwynn 的云客户包括 $AMZN、$META、$MSFT。 而且他们一直在跟 $GOOGL 的 TPU 部署谈合作。 我觉得，单看一些参考架构，一个机架大概就要 512+ 个 Supernova 光源。 所以如果 $SIVE 是主要的激光阵列供应商（我们预期是这样，毕竟 Macom 和 Lumentum 已经从 Ayar 的官网上移除了）。 哪怕只是中等规模的机架部署，对营收来说也意义重大。 而这还只是 $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn 眼下在机架级商业化上的潜力，暂时还不会体现在财务营收上。
- English · 原文@halldj00 $SIVE was high confidence laser supplier directly to Celestial. Celestial got bought by $MRVL. https://t.co/zc18YS8EwJ中文 · 翻译@halldj00 $SIVE 是直接向 Celestial 供货的高置信度激光供应商。 Celestial 被 $MRVL 收购了。 https://t.co/zc18YS8EwJ
- English · 原文People do valuation analysis wrong on names like Sivers or $AXTI. You won’t be able to model $SIVE revenue projections if they’re end up doing M&A + TAM expansioning down optical engines/ELS/optical transceiver stack. Right now it’s looking at all the hyperscaler supply chains they’re qualified into, and a venture style thesis on how they can capture more market share of overall CPO supercycle.中文 · 翻译大家对 Sivers 或者 $AXTI 这类公司的估值分析方法都搞错了。 如果他们最终是通过并购 + 扩大 TAM 的方式，向下游的光引擎/ELS/光收发器整条产业链延伸，那你根本没法给 $SIVE 建立营收预测模型。 现在要看的，是他们已经进入了哪些超大规模云厂商的供应链，以及一个风险投资式的投资逻辑——他们能如何在整体 CPO 超级周期中抢占更多市场份额。
- English · 原文$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.中文 · 翻译$MRVL 的财报对整个 CPO 主题（以及 $SIVE 作为可能的激光器供应商）来说是一个看涨信号。 - "Scale-up interconnect 代表了 AI 基础设施领域最新、最具战略意义的机遇之一。" CPO 主题直接起飞 🚀 - 确认 Celestial 被一级超大规模云服务商选中用于规模化部署。 我之前发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 权证……所以很可能是亚马逊。 - 明年的 Scale-up 光学收入应该比之前约 $1.5 亿的预期翻倍不止，这要归功于 Celestial。 远期营收增长预期直接起飞。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队简直就是"全垒打"。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长引擎，上游的 Celestial 供应商们跟着起飞。 - $MRVL 现在专注于将 Celestial 推向大规模量产。 这是放量爬坡的信号。 如果你不记得了，之前有过 OSINT 情报直接指向 $SIVE 与 Celestial 有关联，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的远期增长对 Sivers 的激光器来说就是一个放量爬坡的信号。
- English · 原文They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream中文 · 翻译他们傻吗？ $JBL 宣布需求大于供应，这预示着 $SIVE 的激光器将进入大规模量产。 Ayar 筹集了 5 亿美元用于量产放量，并放弃了 $LITE 和 $MTSI，转投 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。 $AMD 选择了 $GFS，并且有很大概率在它们的 CPO 计划中使用 Sivers 的产品。 Sivers 还暗示了并购的可能，这会大幅扩展下游的可触达市场。
- English · 原文@ivobuild $SIVE is in Wiwynn supply chains through Ayar, not Winway. It’s also partnered with Win Semi. They sound the same but all different companies https://t.co/k9KntESjeD中文 · 翻译@ivobuild $SIVE 通过 Ayar 进入了 Wiwynn 的供应链，而不是 Winway。它也和 Win Semi 有合作。 名字听起来差不多，但都是不同的公司 https://t.co/k9KntESjeD
- English · 原文@beauty_oe Yeah! This is the first time I’m seeing $SIVE listed on EU chips act 2. I think it’s very compelling.中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 对！这是我第一次看到 $SIVE 出现在欧盟芯片法案 2 的名单上。 我觉得这非常吸引人。
- English · 原文Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql中文 · 翻译嗯，看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 拿到欧盟芯片法案 2 的资金的话，我也不会意外。 开心的是，我那些多头持仓（除了 $IQE）也都列在蓝图上了——之前研究时没注意到这一点！ 不过，看起来正式公告推迟到下周了。https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
- English · 原文@BgEdgelord $SIVE is fundamentally extremely compelling from CPO. And all the valuation drivers are $JBL 1.6T and CPO ramp from players like Ayar. Think those shorts turning into a long are just a cherry on top along the way.中文 · 翻译@BgEdgelord $SIVE 从 CPO 角度看，基本面非常有吸引力。 而且所有估值驱动因素都来自 $JBL 的 1.6 万亿以及 Ayar 这类玩家的 CPO 爬坡。 那些空头转多头的操作，不过是沿途锦上添花罢了。
- English · 原文I was wondering why there was an irrational amount of disinformation about $SIVE. Turns out short sellers have been running bot farm campaigns to spread disinformation. And likely through local news media too. Hope they get blown apart on their short positions now. https://t.co/U3Euy391l8中文 · 翻译我还在纳闷，为什么关于 $SIVE 会有那么多不理性的虚假信息。 原来是有做空机构在运营 bot 群组，到处散布假消息。 而且很可能还通过本地新闻媒体来传播。 希望他们现在能在空头仓位上被狠狠打爆。https://t.co/U3Euy391l8
- English · 原文FYI, EU Chips Act 2 is today, May 27th. This one is expected to be targeted specially around photonics. There happens to Europe’s leading photonics/laser company called $SIVE over in Sweden. That also received US CHIPS act funding and is critical to Western supply chains. https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq中文 · 翻译FYI，今天（5月27日）是《欧盟芯片法案2》的日子。 这次预计会特别针对光子学领域。 欧洲刚好有一家领先的光子学/激光公司叫 $SIVE，在瑞典。 这家公司还拿到了美国的芯片法案资助，对西方供应链至关重要。https://t.co/Ijhnp3wIoq
- English · 原文Swedens transferring control of $SIVE to the West + other countries… Is honestly fun to watch in the charts. https://t.co/zNfWatAm4S中文 · 翻译瑞典正在把 $SIVE 的控制权转交给西方和其它国家…… 说实话，看图表还挺有意思的。 https://t.co/zNfWatAm4S
- English · 原文@Mengmengeth Well $JBL is new TAM expansion into pluggable optical transceivers. CPO with Ayar, $POET, Lightelligence, Celestial, and those players are entirely new. So having both helps $SIVE bridge the valuation gap faster.中文 · 翻译@Mengmengeth 嗯，$JBL 是新进入可插拔光收发器市场，拓展了 TAM。 CPO 方面，跟 Ayar、$POET、Lightelligence、Celestial 还有那些玩家都是全新的。 所以同时拥有这两块，能帮 $SIVE 更快缩小估值差距。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 在我看来是最有吸引力的 CPO 概念股。 虽然它波动很大。 但你可能要到几年后光子学领域下一次架构变革时，才能再找到这样的标的。 核心激光器供应商里，它们市值不都是几百亿吗？ $AAOI = 150 亿美元 古河电工 = 260 亿美元 $MTSI = 290 亿美元 住友电工 = 590 亿美元 $COHR = 730 亿美元 $LITE = 740 亿美元 然后 $SIVE 作为核心 CPO 激光器瓶颈之一，市值只有 23 亿美元。 财报通常只是确认那些小信号——比如 Jabil 电话会纪要里关于 1.6T LRO 的量产线索。 而大部分收益往往是在正式确认之前赚到的，而不是之后，这只是一条经验法则。
- English · 原文@Redpulse_News I personally don’t really see any other compelling Western CPO related name under $14B MC right now. $SIVE is still sub $2.7B MC.中文 · 翻译@Redpulse_News 我个人目前真的没看到其他有吸引力的西部 CPO 相关标的，市值低于 140 亿美元的。 $SIVE 市值仍然不到 27 亿美元。
- English · 原文$JBL literally announced in their fireside chat… Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months. $SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver. Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / sole source laser supplier. 2025 annual report, $SIVE signaled start of volume ramp with both (likely) $AEVA and $POET. This is how you do supply chain mapping on qualification cycles. Anything they make, Sivers makes revenue off lasers. If you ask AI they will keep confidently citing 2024 revenue numbers without knowing volume hints. Which is why I keep seeing these false claims like this over and over, despite Sivers being on the precipice of mass production for 2027.中文 · 翻译$JBL 在他们的炉边谈话中直接宣布了…… 1.6T LRO 将在 3-10 个月内进入大规模量产，需求极其旺盛。 $SIVE 极有可能是这款特定光收发器唯一的激光器供应商。 Ayar 最近刚筹集了 5 亿美元用于产能爬坡，而 $SIVE 是其主要 / 唯一的激光器供应商。 2025 年年报中，$SIVE 暗示已开始与（很可能）$AEVA 和 $POET 一起进入产能爬坡阶段。 这才是正确的供应链追踪方式，盯着认证周期判断。 他们做的东西，只要出货，Sivers 就能从激光器上赚到钱。 你要是去问 AI，它们会自信满满地引用 2024 年的营收数据，根本不知道那些产能放量的信号。 所以我才反复看到这种错误说法，尽管 Sivers 已经站在 2027 年大规模量产的门槛上了。
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
- English · 原文$SIVE is highest possible upside, since I see them being the next $LITE (which started at ~$2.6B as well in 2024, but now is $80B). As laser chokepoints are known to downstream TAM expand, then vertically integrate assembly/fabs after. Foci/Shunsin I kinda expect to 3-4x. They're more structural re-rating from FAU/component revenue growth... or just more demand on packaging/test. But hard to see them going up 20x.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 的上行空间最大，因为我看好它会成为下一个 $LITE（后者 2024 年起步时市值大约 26 亿美元，现在已经 800 亿美元了）。 激光瓶颈环节众所周知，下游 TAM 会扩张，然后它们再往后垂直整合封装/晶圆厂。 Foci/Shunsin 我大概预期能涨 3 到 4 倍。 它们更多是来自 FAU/组件营收增长带来的结构性重估……或者只是封装/测试需求增加。但要看到它们涨 20 倍，挺难的。
- English · 原文For people trying to do valuation analysis on $SIVE. Ayar, Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence are probably valued probably ~$4B-15B+ today. Sivers is ~$2.6B MC and they're likely upstream laser for them all. I'm not even including Poet, TFLN links like Hyperlight/Lightium, or pluggables like Jabil + other undisclosed players in valuation analysis. Or their other segments like CHIPS Act contracts or Apple/Nokia relationships. Or humanoid/physical AI segments with Aeva + others. Retail aren't as familiar with private markets... But these companies are all considered the frontier CPO players, and are growing valuations/scaling rapidly. So, I'd expect $SIVE to command similar if not higher valuations given laser chokepoint premiums. Especially after they pull off M&A to TAM expand revenue. New Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ inflow next month helps close that gap over time. But NASDAQ listing is probably what gives Sivers a premium.中文 · 翻译给正在尝试对 $SIVE 做估值分析的人。 Ayar、Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 这些公司现在的估值大概在 40 亿到 150 亿美元以上。 Sivers 市值约 26 亿美元，它们很可能在给所有这些公司做上游激光器。 我甚至还没有把 Poet、TFLN 链上的 Hyperlight/Lightium、Jabil 这样的可插拔模块商、以及其他未披露的公司算进估值分析里。 也没有算它们的其他业务板块，比如 CHIPS 法案的合同、或者苹果/诺基亚的关系。 也没有算上跟 Aeva 等公司合作的人形机器人/物理 AI 板块。 散户对私募市场没那么熟悉…… 但这些公司全都被视为 CPO 领域的前沿玩家，估值和规模化能力都在飞速增长。 所以，考虑到激光器这个瓶颈环节的溢价，我觉得 $SIVE 应该能拿到跟它们差不多甚至更高的估值。尤其是他们通过并购扩大 TAM 并提升收入之后。 下个月 Blackrock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ 的新资金流入，会慢慢帮助缩小这个差距。 不过，纳斯达克上市资格本身可能就是给 Sivers 带来溢价的原因。
- English · 原文I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE? https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg中文 · 翻译我在 $AXTI 和 $SIVE 上的表现，应该配得上一部自己的 Netflix 特辑了吧？https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg
- English · 原文Nah, I think $SIVE is still extremely undervalued relatively speaking. Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, celestial, and others all probably command $5-$15B+ valuations. Not even including small guys like $POET or pluggables like $JBL. Sivers lasers likely power them all, and they’re primary/sole source for a lot.中文 · 翻译不，我觉得 $SIVE 相对而言还是被严重低估了。 Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、Celestial 还有其他几家，估值大概都在 50 亿到 150 亿美元以上。 这还没算上 $POET 这样的小公司，或者 $JBL 这类可插拔模块。 Sivers 的激光器很可能给它们全都供货，而且在很多产品里是主要甚至唯一的供应商。
- English · 原文@happikoala2025 @beauty_oe 超かっこいい画像を作ってくれてありがとう！ まるでリザードンとトランセルが $AXTIと $SIVE みたいじゃない？ でも、トランセルはもうすぐ進化すると思うけどw中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文No, why would there be much of a pullback? (Also don’t own Cerebras) The “hype” over Vanguard and Blackrock buying $SIVE is extremely justified… Because that’s new + pure buying pressure into existing float. And inflows are probably another $10M+ now next week given MC increase.中文 · 翻译不，怎么会大跌呢？（而且我没持有 Cerebras） 市场对 Vanguard 和 Blackrock 买入 $SIVE 的“炒作”完全合理……因为这是新增的、纯粹针对现有流通盘的买入压力。 而且考虑到市值增长，下周可能又会有 1000 万美元以上的资金流入。
- English · 原文@Selooo79 3 weeks ago they were trying to bear post about some random Swedish firm selling. Now, Blackrock, Vanguard and others are buying $SIVE next month. Don’t think US capital cares too much about local Swedish capital/short sellers.中文 · 翻译@Selooo79 三周前他们还在发帖唱空，说有个瑞典公司要出货。 现在，贝莱德、先锋和其他机构下个月都在买 $SIVE。别以为美国资本会在乎瑞典本地资本和做空者的那些小动作。
- English · 原文Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.中文 · 翻译你听到了吗，匿名用户？ $SIVE 现在极早期。 接下来一周，我们将首次看到大量机构资金涌入（Blackrock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再加上很快就要在纳斯达克上市，会有更多美国机构进场。 这就是早期买入 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类股票时的感觉。 而且这会儿，大机构资金还没大量涌入流通盘，CPO 超级周期也还没真正启动。
- English · 原文@ThriveSnap $SIVE is extremely early. Before it was mainly retail. All the institutional capital are about to enter soon, as seen with all the index inflows next week. Then NASDAQ soon. Retail just aren’t accustomed to being the earliest to a name for once.中文 · 翻译@ThriveSnap $SIVE 现在还非常早期。之前主要是散户在玩。 所有机构资金很快就要进场了，下周指数资金流入就能看出来。 然后纳斯达克也快了。散户就是还没习惯自己居然能成为某个标的的头批玩家。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the largest beneficiary of brand new events this weekend: 1. Sivers new NASDAQ index inclusion (OMX Stockholm): Both Vanguard and Blackrock are new passive inflows. With ~$60M+ pure buying pressure inflow, into existing float, together with MSCI next week. 2. US Gov and Sweden sign agreement for joint tech collaboration. $SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden. And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week. Making $SIVE heavily supported + critical to the US government. - TLDR: New passive institutional inflow from your largest US institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard. Compounded with US government backing into $SIVE. Over the weekend. Beneficial for fundamentals (revenue/TAM from Pentagon supply chains) and inflow from Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ. Extremely bullish.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是这周末全新事件的最大受益者： 1. Sivers 新纳入纳斯达克指数（OMX Stockholm）： 先锋领航和贝莱德都将带来新的被动资金流入。 大约有 $6000 万+ 的纯买入压力涌入现有流通盘，再加上下周的 MSCI。 2. 美国政府与瑞典签署联合技术合作协议。 $SIVE 是少数几家获得《芯片法案》资助的公司之一，尤其是在瑞典。 而且如果你不记得了，他们上周还收到了另一笔 $660 万 的《芯片法案》拨款。 这让 $SIVE 获得了强有力的支持，并且对美国至关重要。 - 长话短说：来自美国最大机构（如贝莱德/先锋领航）的新的被动机构资金流入。 再加上美国政府周末给 $SIVE 的支持。 对基本面（五角大楼供应链带来的收入/潜在市场规模）和来自贝莱德/先锋领航/MSCI/纳斯达克的资金流入都有利。 极度看涨。
- English · 原文几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文When I do my supply chain mapping... $SIVE is just so critically important to so many frontier industries. I'm not sure people are fully aware yet. $SIVE -> $AAPL, $NOK, $RTX (us defense contractrs), $YSS (golden dome). Not including Ericcson + others. Then you have $SIVE -> $AEVA -> Boston Dynamics / $NVDA self-driving architectural standards. Then you have $SIVE -> Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL, and many others for CPO/1.6T. Those go to GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell -> hyperscalers. Then there's a ton more... Like their US Gov CHIPS Act work that are secretive. Normally with stuff like $POET, it's like "hey" you have 1 customer with a $50m purchase order, we know where that's going. Not some Swedish company with a smaller valuation, going into everywhere from Space, Robotics, AI, consumer segments...中文 · 翻译在做供应链梳理的时候…$SIVE 在很多前沿产业里都处于绝对关键的位置。 我感觉大家还没完全意识到这一点。 $SIVE → $AAPL、$NOK、$RTX（美国国防承包商）、$YSS（金穹）。还不包括爱立信和其他。 然后还有 $SIVE → $AEVA → Boston Dynamics / $NVDA 自动驾驶架构标准。 接着是 $SIVE → Celestial / $POET / Lightmatter / Lightelligence / Ayar / $JBL，还有很多其他做 CPO/1.6T 的公司。 这些又通到 GUC/ALCHIP/Marvell → 超大规模云厂商。 还有更多…比如他们跟美国政府《芯片法案》相关的保密项目。 通常像 $POET 这种，你会说"嘿"，它有一个客户下了 $5000 万的采购订单，我们知道钱会流向哪里。 但一家瑞典公司，估值更小，却遍布太空、机器人、AI、消费电子等各个领域。
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。
- English · 原文$SIVE (laser), Foci (fau/optical components), Shunsin (packaging/test), MSSCorp (yields) are personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff. Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.中文 · 翻译$SIVE（激光）、Foci（光纤/光学元件）、Shunsin（封装/测试）、MSSCorp（良率）是我个人目前最看好的CPO相关标的。 因为它们基本都在未来两年里从0到100全速推进。
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文I’m not selling a single share of $SIVE. I personally think it’s a once-a-generation long given how many hyperscaler suppliers they’re already in. Coupled with GS extreme TAM expansion projections for both pluggables and CPO in the next 2 years. If you didn’t read the $JBL fireside transcript by now validating demand/timeline. Or the fact Ayar removed Lumentum and Macom from their website as laser suppliers validating moat. Or literal CHIPS ACT funding validating technological importance. Or that management is literally doing everything right in my view, with NASDAQ listing into M&A focus, validating forward growth vision. Upside is just way too compelling at current valuations. Institutions have barely entered yet as well… and we’re about to see tens of millions of passive, long term new inflow next month from Nasdaq, Blackrock, MSCI indexes.中文 · 翻译一股 $SIVE 我都不会卖。 我个人觉得，这是十年一遇的多头机会，毕竟他们已经打进了那么多家超大规模云服务商的供应链。 再加上高盛对未来两年可插拔光模块和 CPO 的 TAM 扩张预测，简直夸张。 如果你还没读过 $JBL 那场线上交流的文字记录，里面确认了需求和时间线。 或者没注意到 Ayar 已经从官网上去掉了 Lumentum 和 Macom 这两家激光器供应商，这验证了他们的护城河。 或者没看到光是《芯片法案》的拨款就已经确认了它的技术重要性。 或者没意识到管理层在我看来每一步都走对了——从纳斯达克上市到转向并购聚焦，都验证了未来增长的远景。 按现在的估值来看，向上的空间实在太诱人了。 而且机构资金才刚刚开始进场……接下来下个月，纳斯达克、贝莱德、MSCI 这些指数就会带来数千万美元的被动长期新资金流入。
- English · 原文@knedoycap There's around ~$47M from MSCI index for $SIVE. And ~$15-20M from the new NASDAQ Stockholm index inclusion. So ~$64.5M of pure institutional buying pressure next month. Given ~17% of FF is shorted too, add that to buying pressure if they cover.中文 · 翻译@knedoycap MSCI 指数那边大概有 $47M 会流入 $SIVE。再加上新纳入纳斯达克斯德哥尔摩指数，大概有 $15-20M。 所以下个月约有 $6450 万的纯机构买入压力。而且大约 17% 的自由流通股还在做空，如果他们回补的话，买入压力还会更大。
- English · 原文Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index. This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M. We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM. https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja中文 · 翻译哇，纳斯达克刚把 $SIVE 纳入了斯德哥尔摩指数。 这预计会带来大约 1500-2000 万美元的被动资金流入，其中纯 ETF 部分大概在 50 万美元左右。 我们可以明显看到大量机构资金涌入 Sivers，而且这还是建立在 MSCI 月未纳入指数的基础之上。https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja
- English · 原文People in Sweden always like: “How does $SIVE have so little employees and can do all of this” vs. $LITE? Turns out… You can build the most valuable IP in the world if ~1/4th your entire workforce are PHDs. https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ中文 · 翻译瑞典人总爱说： “$SIVE 员工这么少，怎么搞定这一切的？” vs. $LITE？ 结果发现……如果整个团队里大约四分之一都是博士，你就能造出全世界最有价值的 IP。https://t.co/oVlJJ9OEaZ
- English · 原文Welcome to Silicon Valley, Sweden. It's moreso what you can do with the funding and if you can turn that market investment into $100B+. Not about what revenue you pulled in from 2024. $SIVE has the perfect setup right now, and I think it's likely they can pull off the right acquisitions to speedrun revenue expansion.中文 · 翻译欢迎来到硅谷，瑞典。 关键还是看你能拿这笔资金做什么，以及能不能把那笔市场投资变成 1000 亿美元以上。 不是看 2024 年你挣了多少营收。 $SIVE 现在的布局简直完美，我觉得他们大概率能通过正确的收购，快速把营收规模提上去。
- English · 原文$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 更偏向纯粹的制造规模，我极度看好他们。 所以在我看来它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此极度看好其营收增长。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要的 CPO 超大规模供应商似乎都在用他们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。 连 $JBL 都与 Sivers 在 1.6T LRO 上建立了突破性的护城河。 Sivers 的上限是天花板，未来他们也可以像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样通过资本开支实现垂直整合。 但他们目前的主要重点应该是尽可能打造最大的 IP 护城河 + 将制造外包以保持轻资本。 以后随时可以垂直整合组装和激光器制造。 我因为不同的原因看好这两家。
- English · 原文Markets are kinda realizing US Gov is heavily backing $SIVE as you can see with direct US CHIPS Act funding. Since you see Sivers in $YSS Golden Dome supply chains (from allspace), and $RTX defense supply chains (chips act). But yeah Ericsson and SIvers are probably the two more noticable ones benefiting from US x Sweden tech MOU.中文 · 翻译市场开始有点意识到，美国政府通过直接的《芯片法案》资金，在大力支持 $SIVE。 因为你看到 Sivers 出现在 $YSS "金穹" 供应链（来自 allspace）和 $RTX 国防供应链（芯片法案）里。 不过没错，爱立信和 Sivers 大概是最显眼的两个，受益于美国与瑞典的技术合作谅解备忘录（MOU）。
- English · 原文I said this before but I have high conviction in $SIVE. I'm confident their UC Berkeley + $LITE executive team knows what IP to acquire. Since they've worked with Ayar and others from the start. Also helps that 22% of their company are PHDs so entire team is cracked. CHIPS ACT, all these likely partnerships from $NOK to $AAPL also gives a ton of credibility to the IP moat they've built. They just lacked the funding before the recent market interest in Sivers. But I'm very interested to see what they can do from here.中文 · 翻译我之前说过，但我对 $SIVE 有很高的信心。 我有信心，他们那支来自 UC Berkeley 和 $LITE 的 executive 团队知道该收购哪些 IP。毕竟他们从一开始就和 Ayar 他们合作过。 再加上他们公司有 22% 的员工都是博士，所以整个团队非常厉害。 CHIPS 法案，再加上所有这些潜在的合作伙伴，从 $NOK 到 $AAPL，也给他们构建的 IP 护城河带来了极大的可信度。 在最近市场对 Sivers 产生兴趣之前，他们只是缺乏资金。但我非常期待看到他们接下来能有什么作为。
- English · 原文For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE. Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T. They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space. From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big. And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables. They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity). And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into: -> Optical Engine/ELS value. -> Optical Transceiver IP Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years. But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics. I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE. More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.中文 · 翻译要让 $SIVE 成为下一个 800 亿+ 美元的 $LITE。 Sivers 是目前从传统光学转向 CPO 和 1.6T 的激光器之王。 他们基本上把激光器供应给 CPO 领域的头部玩家。 很可能是 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence、$POET 以及其他做 CPO 的公司——在它们做大之前。 现在和 $JBL 这样的大玩家一起做 1.6T LRO，还有更多的测试和认证正在进行，针对可插拔模块。 他们终于解决了那个鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题，市场也开始关注他们，准备在纳斯达克上市后（或者现在用股权）收购底层的 CPO 相关 IP。 并且尽可能扩大收入来源，从激光器延伸至： → 光学引擎/ELS 的价值。 → 光收发器 IP。 就像 $LITE 当年那样——在两年内把估值从 20 亿推到 800 亿美元。 但不同的是，$LITE 靠的是 EML 和可插拔模块，而 Sivers 瞄准的是 CPO 超级周期，也就是光子学史上 TAM 扩张最快的领域。 我在关注这个故事，看他们如何实现这场大卫 vs 歌利亚式的逆袭，追上 $LITE。 这比我在意现在这点小市值的百分比变动重要多了。
- English · 原文5 months ago. I gave a PT of $150 with $AXTI. Over 10x that current values from a $500M MC. It’s now a $9.2B MC and $140. $10 away. New $SIVE longs are starting to realize what’s it’s like to be in AXT. And that I’m pretty good at guessing intrinsic valuations of companies. https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV中文 · 翻译5 个月前。我给 $AXTI 定了个 $150 的目标价。 从 $500M 市值到现在涨了 10 倍多。 现在市值 $9.2B，股价 $140。还差 $10。 新进 $SIVE 的多头们，终于开始体会当初在 AXT 里的滋味了。 而且，我猜公司内在价值还是挺准的。 https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV
- English · 原文Wait until you realize that this is actually NASDAQ liquidity required for the US listing/float. And proceeds are expected go to $SIVE M&A (they hired 2 acquisition related board members). For photonics TAM/Revenue expansion. Not only that, all the small companies they worked with from Celestial to Lightmatter ended up being swallowed up by Marvell or became independent billion dollar companies. So Sivers is by far the most knowledgable in what to acquire at the very start. Which is why I call $SIVE the Kingmaker for CPO. This is in fact extremely bullish for Sivers.中文 · 翻译等你意识到，这笔钱其实是纳斯达克为了上市/流通性所要求的流动性。 而且募来的钱预计会拿去给 $SIVE 做并购（他们聘请了两位跟收购相关的董事会成员）。 为了光子学的整体目标市场/营收扩张。 还不止这样，所有他们合作过的初创公司，从 Celestial 到 Lightmatter，最后不是被 Marvell 吞掉，就是自己长成了市值十亿美元级的独立公司。 所以 Sivers 绝对是目前最懂如何在最早期就挑对标的的玩家。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 的 "王座推手"。 这对 Sivers 来说，其实是非常强烈的利好信号。
- English · 原文$SIVE is literally the kingmaker for CPO: From ~ Lightmatter, Celestial, Ayar, Lightelligence early on. Now the leaders with massive $5-10B+ valuations. To the ASIC ecosystems like Marvell, Alchip, GUC. With O-Net mass producing ELS with Sivers for CPO. And Jabil mass producing pluggables with Sivers for pluggable optical transceivers. All likely surround and are designed around Sivers lasers. Markets are only starting to see the precipice of how important this laser company is.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 简直就是 CPO 领域的造王者： 从早期 ~ Lightmatter、Celestial、Ayar、Lightelligence，现在它们都是估值高达 50-100 亿美元的领导者。 再到 ASIC 生态系统，比如 Marvell、Alchip、GUC。 加上 O-Net 正在跟 Sivers 一起量产 ELS，用于 CPO。 还有 Jabil 跟 Sivers 一起量产可插拔光模块。 所有这些很可能都围绕并且基于 Sivers 的激光器来设计。 市场才刚刚开始看到这家激光公司有多重要。
- English · 原文Am I that popular? I did get a lot of dm requests to manage their capital recently. But only here to help out regular retail investors succeed on their own with ideas like $SIVE or $SOI. I feel like anything else would be a bit of a distraction.中文 · 翻译我这么受欢迎吗？ 最近确实收到不少私信，让我帮他们管钱。 但我在这里只是想帮助普通散户投资者，用 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这类思路自己取得成功。 我觉得干别的事就有点跑偏了。