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历史观点（32 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops. And they typically recover earlier? Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.中文 · 翻译现在全球都在回调，不知道什么时候才停。 韩综指跌了 -8.18%（SK 海力士/三星） 日经跌了 -4.8% 台湾加权指数跌了 -3.82% 你也看到了 $SOI 或 $RKLB 跌了 30-40%。 根据我个人的经验，高贝塔股票会跌得更惨，但它们通常先于指数下跌。 而且它们往往反弹得更早？ 除了韩国这种本身就波动大的市场，当主要指数每天回调 3-4% 的时候，通常都不太好受。
- English · 原文Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.中文 · 翻译我也这么觉得。不过在那之前，我给自己的策略起了个名字：多元化亏损。 拿 $AXTI、$SOI、$AAOI 来说，还有一大堆别的。 最近回撤挺大的， CPO 相关的仓位跌得最狠（Foci、Msscorp 这些），连带那些沾边的标的也惨，真难受。 可能对我来说，教训就是光子学这块儿仓位太集中了，没怎么配存储或其他板块，也没有好好做对冲和权重分配。 Soitec 那边，出了几份我不太认同的负面机构报告。 个人觉得 AXT 跌得更凶，主要是因为流通股扩张/稀释的问题。AAOI 嘛，大概就是被这个主题一起带下来的。 我没法给买卖建议，所以要不要做成本摊平或建仓，完全看你自己的判断。 不过我还是认为，光子学这边我们还在超级周期的早期阶段，一路上涨的过程中肯定会有回调或暴跌。 但如果我个人的判断是对的，这些标的很多会在 2027 年中到 2028 年迎来一个重大的转折点。 市场一般不会等到事情发生才提前定价，不过考虑到现在已经是 2026 年下半年了，有些想法可能稍微早了点，或者还处在建设期。 所以关键还是要建立你自己的信念。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文@carlosfagar $XFAB hasn't even been a month... I made this post saying I'd prefer if long ideas were validated on medium term timeframes, not in 3 weeks lol. $SOI is up over 175% since I shared my idea?中文 · 翻译@carlosfagar $XFAB 甚至还没满一个月…… 我发过这帖子，说我希望长期看多的想法能在中期时间框架内得到验证，而不是三周内就搞定了，哈哈。 $SOI 从我分享想法以来涨了超过 175%？
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。 目前今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。 我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！ 比如像 Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。 如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对… 所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。 我只是边走边分享而已！中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文@aphexinvests I’d expect $SOI, $XFAB, $IQE and others in the European supply chain to play follow the leader and recover as well. Everything got sold off with photonics / power semis recently.中文 · 翻译@aphexinvests 我觉得 $SOI、$XFAB、$IQE 还有欧洲供应链里的其他几家，应该也会跟着龙头一起反弹。 最近光电和功率半导体那边，什么都被抛售了一波。
- English · 原文On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory. Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”. What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx中文 · 翻译关键点：$NVDA 的CEO还特别提到了硅光子（光网络）与存储结合。 并表示英伟达将需要“超乎想象的供应量”。 这对于硅光子供应链来说，从$SIVE（如今已是英伟达上游生态系统的一部分）到$SOI，是一个多么看好的信号啊。 https://t.co/m6jub4nfzx
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文@Frenchie_ They keep fighting with me with everything from $SOI, $RPI, and $SIVE. Then get embarrassed over and over. Idk if they’re going to learn中文 · 翻译@Frenchie_ 他们一直拿 $SOI、$RPI 和 $SIVE 来找我茬。 然后一次又一次被打脸。不知道他们能不能长点记性。
- English · 原文Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.中文 · 翻译是啊……我觉得你上游所有半导体供应链的公司都会涨很多。 高盛现在预计，从2025到2030年，四大超大规模云厂商 $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN 的资本开支总和将达到 5.3 万亿美元。 相比一季度财报时预测的 4.5 万亿，已经上调了。 “2026 到 2031 年，总资本开支估计为 7.6 万亿美元。” 这些资金会向上传导到那些小而关键的瓶颈环节，比如 $SIVE（CPO 激光器）、$SOI（硅光子学衬底），还有 Leaderdrive / Harmonic（人形机器人组件）。 等等等等…… AI 板块不会一路上涨， 但当我们从研发/算力建设阶段走向商业化——从 Agent 到物理 AI，再到科学发现——这仅仅是下一场工业革命的开端。
- English · 原文Europe has no chance of competing with the US regarding the AI race. But what they can do is strengthen their niche monopolies/chokepoints, and sovereign supply chain resilience. I think they're starting to realize how critical players like $SOI and $SIVE are to Europe tho. Which is why they put CPO/Photonics for AI DCs, and niche advanced packaging players on their focus policy.中文 · 翻译欧洲在AI竞赛上根本没机会跟美国竞争。 但他们能做的是强化自己的利基垄断/关键节点，以及主权供应链的韧性。 我觉得他们开始意识到像 $SOI 和 $SIVE 这样的玩家对欧洲有多关键了。 所以他们才把面向AI数据中心的CPO/光子学、以及利基先进封装厂商列入重点政策。
- English · 原文EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union" - "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics" - "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies - "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies" === More specifically policy specifically focuses on -> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE) -> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…” -> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB) -> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players" -> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework. Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category. Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework. TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now. We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.中文 · 翻译欧盟芯片法案 2.0 提案现已发布。 好消息：光子学现已被确认为欧盟政策的新结构性组成部分。 这对欧盟光子学行业来说，在主题上看涨。 主题上来说： - "‘欧洲芯片计划’的这一新组成部分支持光子集成电路及相关技术的发展" - "在整个联盟内建立并加强光子集成电路技术及其他光子技术的先进设计、原型制造和产业化部署能力" - "拓展联盟的设计能力，包括光子学领域" - "加强现有试点线并开发新的试点线和开放式半导体制造设施，用于光子集成电路及相关光子技术的原型制造和生产" - "开发并维护光子集成电路及相关光子技术的设计库和设计自动化工具" === 具体来说，政策特别聚焦于 → 面向 AI 数据中心的光学共封装（CPO/互连聚焦，对 $SIVE 是看涨信号） → "硅光子……在高带宽数据中心互连中的应用" → "包括共封装和与电子芯片的异构集成、制造设备以及光子集成电路材料平台在内的生产技术能力应得到加强"（$XFAB） → $SOI 在关于欧盟结构性优势的影响分析中被直接提及。"欧盟在 SOI 晶圆方面拥有相对较强的全球地位，Soitec 和 Siltronic 是显著参与者" → $XFAB 也在影响分析中被直接提及，作为创建当前资助框架的一部分。 显然这对 $XFAB 是结构性的利好，因为他们实际上是欧洲硅光子价值链的领导者，并被列为"首创"（FOAK）类别中的一员。 初步解读，这对进入 AI 数据中心的欧盟光子学领导者来说非常积极，符合欧盟政策。我预计光学相关企业将普遍受益于这一框架。 总结：长期来看，欧盟光子学结构性起飞。最积极的确认是，光子学现在已成为欧盟政策的结构性组成部分。 在这份提案发布后，我们很可能在 3-15 个月内（通常在中间某个时间点）看到具体的光子学公司名称出现。市场总体上是前瞻性的。
- English · 原文So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised if larger players were there.中文 · 翻译所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经比较成熟了。 我深入看了一下，提案主要围绕 3000 万到 5 亿美元的融资和营收激励，目的是帮助那些还没进入量产的企业过渡到大规模量产阶段。 $SIVE / $XFAB 和这些政策激励更贴合，不过要是大玩家也在里面，我也不会意外。
- English · 原文@StocksAREnuts Yeah I’m up like 250% on $SOI, I’m surprised markets missed the at one… Also quite surprised about $XFAB valuations given they seem to be leading Europe’s photonics supply chain development…中文 · 翻译@StocksAREnuts 是啊，我在$SOI上赚了大概250%，真没想到市场居然错过了这个机会…… 另外对$XFAB的估值也挺意外的，毕竟他们看起来正在主导欧洲光子供应链的发展……
- English · 原文@JeremieHello I genuinely didnt know $SOI had options. But even with the 17% drop today, still doing pretty well since $44 EUR. https://t.co/QQ8Mc7XvWm中文 · 翻译@JeremieHello 我还真不知道 $SOI 有期权。 不过就算今天跌了 17%，从 €44 上来算还是赚得不错的。https://t.co/QQ8Mc7XvWm
- English · 原文@x4tsr Yeah, well deserved victory lap that it’s now up hundreds of percent since European media kept shtting on my $SOI idea.中文 · 翻译@x4tsr 是啊，这圈胜利跑得理所当然——自从欧洲媒体一直对着我的 $SOI 想法喷粪之后，现在已经涨了几百个百分点。
- English · 原文Oh look, $SOI is now up 4X+ since I went long. And another 15%+ after earnings. Despite media“analysts”claiming there was nothing new with Soitec. The fact they’re trying to reorganize the company to answer demand for SOI substrates for photonics. It’s a pretty positive read-through on what’s to come for the company in the next two years. Again with companies with forward growth opportunities, it’s about looking at the future… not past earnings, unlike what some Europeans might only care about.中文 · 翻译哎哟你看，$SOI 从我建仓到现在已经涨了4倍多了。 财报后又是15%以上的涨幅。 尽管那些媒体"分析师"还说 Soitec 没什么新东西。 事实是他们正在重组公司，以应对光子学领域对 SOI 衬底的需求。 这对公司未来两年的发展来说，是一个相当积极的信号。 再说一次，对于有未来增长机会的公司，关键是看未来…… 而不是像某些欧洲人可能只会盯着过去的财报。
- English · 原文Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.中文 · 翻译Bro media… $XFAB 怎么就成 meme 股了？ 这次可别再在 $RPI 上犯同样的错误好吗？ 它们可是因为太关键，直接从欧盟拿到了 CHIPS ACT 资金。 而且 $NVDA / $NOK 正在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们交易价才低到大约 1.28 倍市净率。 这让我想起了 $SOI，市净率低但高增长垂直领域正脱离传统业务板块的拖累。 $XFAB 可是被明确写在下周 CHIPS ACT 2 的蓝皮书里……而那蓝皮书主要聚焦光子学。 主收入增长引擎在于功率半导体，因为 $NVDA 在推 800 伏直流电。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 和大家都最近起飞了。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它们在功率半导体里是个不太知名的代工厂……但美国商务部 2 年前就指出，它们是美国唯一高产能的 SiC 代工厂。 我恰好指出了这些关联。 别因为你搞不懂，就给人家扣个 "meme 股" 的帽子，说价格脱离基本面。
- English · 原文Idk… I mean everyone called $AXTI a scam and now it’s up thousands of percent? Everyone called $AAOI management a scam and now that’s up 7x too. Institutions went out and criticized my $SOI long as well at $44 and now it’s $170… after they bought the float… Not sure if it’s short selling or trying to accumulate the float.中文 · 翻译不好说吧……当初人人都说 $AXTI 是骗局，结果现在涨了几千个百分点？ 当初人人都说 $AAOI 管理层是骗局，结果现在也涨了七倍。 机构们还跑出来批评我在 $44 做多 $SOI，结果现在涨到 $170 了……还是在它们买完流通盘之后…… 不确定这到底是做空，还是想偷偷吸筹。
- English · 原文Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql中文 · 翻译嗯，看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 拿到欧盟芯片法案 2 的资金的话，我也不会意外。 开心的是，我那些多头持仓（除了 $IQE）也都列在蓝图上了——之前研究时没注意到这一点！ 不过，看起来正式公告推迟到下周了。https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
- English · 原文@afgmantu Of course? Monopolies like $SOI don’t just disappear after they go up a few hundred percent https://t.co/dwxWwiKgXA中文 · 翻译@afgmantu 当然？像 $SOI 这种垄断企业，涨个几百个百分点之后又不会凭空消失 https://t.co/dwxWwiKgXA
- English · 原文@DisruptivePoltx Yeah they have close relationships with $IQE, $SOI and my other longs. Was familiar with a lot of the private photonics companies working with $XFAB so liked it a bit more.中文 · 翻译@DisruptivePoltx 对，他们跟 $IQE、$SOI 还有我其他的多头标的关系很密切。 之前就听说过不少跟 $XFAB 合作的私人光子学公司，所以对这个标的更有好感一些。
- English · 原文$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.中文 · 翻译$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）在市值 $12.8 亿的情况下，是一个值得关注的多头思路，我已经建仓。 因为今天 EU CHIPS 法案 2 出炉，对欧洲光子学玩家是个催化剂。 > 800 VDC 功率半导体业务，通过 $NVDA 传导到 $NVTS + $POWI > 硅光子 / CPO 业务，$NVDA 正在评估其大规模量产潜力（光收发器/交换机） > 是美国唯一一家大规模量产 SiC 的代工厂。 > 也是关键 MEMS 代工厂之一 > 市净率约 1.29 倍，差不多是我当时做多 $SOI 时的水平。受传统业务拖累，估值偏低 > 我个人估算 2028 年前瞻市盈率约 6.5-8.5 倍 > 有政府背书： - EU CHIPS 法案，1.28 亿欧元 - 美国 CHIPS 法案，5000 万美元 PMT（商务部）。 后续可能还有更多（这本身就说明它对西方供应链至关重要）。 所以到某个时间点，算上所有补贴，它们的资本开支基本就是政府买单了。 EU CHIPS 法案 2 这周就要公布，我猜 $XFAB 大概率会被纳入，因为它们之前就在名单里，而且这个方案专门针对光子学。 ~$13 亿的市值，如果它能像 Soitec 那样来个反转（低市净率、极高增长板块、汽车传统业务拖累），我觉得很有吸引力。 至于和 $NVDA 在硅光子方面的合作，项目名称是“photonixFAB”。 市场很可能忽略了 XFab 主导的这层硅光子合作（就像我当时做多 $TSEM 时一样），只是换了个名字存在。 在功率半导体方面，XFAB 就是 SiC 的代名词，和 $NVTS 也是关联的。在 PCN-22181 文件中，$POWI 明确把 XFAB 列为它的代工厂。 考虑到它兼具功率半导体和光子学两大增长点、低市净率、有政府兜底（当然，你自己研究，我只是分享个人看法） 我个人觉得挺有吸引力的。
- English · 原文确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底， 路向下游直到光模块成品制造商… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
- English · 原文@Frenchie_ lol thanks for all intros to the French community. I think the local French media complaining about my $SOI long back at $40 helped a bit too. But gotten a lot of support from France!中文 · 翻译@Frenchie_ 哈哈 感谢向法国社区做的所有介绍。 我觉得当初法国本地媒体抱怨我在 $40 做多 $SOI 也有点帮助。 不过法国这边确实得到了很多支持！
- English · 原文几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文@ncs1912 Because I care more about novel ideas and if they get validated in markets. If someone with $4000 had a great idea about $SOI before anyone else found it. Then Soitec goes up 4x. That's more valuable to me/others than if someone with a large account $10M off a 1% return.中文 · 翻译@ncs1912 因为我更在意新颖的想法，以及它们能否在市场中得到验证。 如果有人用 $4000，在别人发现 $SOI 之前就想到了一个绝妙主意。 然后 Soitec 涨了 4 倍。这对我和其他人来说，比那些大账户靠 1% 的回报赚 $1000 万更有价值。
- English · 原文European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm中文 · 翻译欧洲的量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈正在疯狂爆发？ $ALRIB 上涨 8.35% $LPK 上涨 3.21% $IQE 上涨 5.68% $SOI 上涨 4.98% 顺便说一句，LPKF 的 CEO 在市场上买了自家股票，这对散户来说是个不错的信心信号。 更多 CEO 应该这样做，哪怕只是小额买入。https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm
- English · 原文Am I that popular? I did get a lot of dm requests to manage their capital recently. But only here to help out regular retail investors succeed on their own with ideas like $SIVE or $SOI. I feel like anything else would be a bit of a distraction.中文 · 翻译我这么受欢迎吗？ 最近确实收到不少私信，让我帮他们管钱。 但我在这里只是想帮助普通散户投资者，用 $SIVE 或 $SOI 这类思路自己取得成功。 我觉得干别的事就有点跑偏了。