TSEM高塔半导体 ADR
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- English · 原文OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.中文 · 翻译每次看OpenLight（未上市），感觉它规模越来越大了。 如果你好奇他们在Advantest之外的公开生态系统： $JBL（$SIVE的合作伙伴）负责扩大PIC规模 $MRVL和$MXL负责DSP $TSEM负责晶圆代工。 $300394.SZ / TFC Optical（封测/组件组装） 如果你不是合格投资者，往往能通过公开股票间接参与未上市公司的成长。 毕竟光学玩家之间的关联度非常高。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS中文 · 翻译哇，$TSEM 今天涨了 10% 以上。 好日子，回头想想三月份就该把它弄成我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这些晶圆代工厂最近涨得飞起。https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
- English · 原文So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.中文 · 翻译所以短期拉升的话，我觉得 $LPK 可能会走得更陡峭一些。 因为设备供应商从认证阶段切换到量产阶段时——就像最近 $AEHR 和 $AIXA 那样——它们通常会被重新估值到 30-70 亿美元的市值。 但 99% 的公司从结构上看，天花板还是比较明显的。 长期来看，我个人觉得 $XFAB 的上行空间要大得多，如果它们能主导欧洲的光子供应链，并且用 MTP 做出一个 $TSEM 的替代方案的话。不过现在还处在更早期的阶段。
- English · 原文Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi. https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU中文 · 翻译哇，$IQE 和 $TSEM 签了一份多年期的 InP 外延片协议。 还记得我当初在 $12 的时候告诉你们，IQE 对西方光通信供应链有多重要吗？ $MTSI 当初可是费了很大劲才跟 IQE 锁定了供应。 现在又跟 Tower Semi 签了一个关键协议。https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU
- English · 原文Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).中文 · 翻译为什么我一直被问到这些问题！！！ $XFAB 正在打造一个硅光子学代工厂，作为 $TSEM 和 $GFS 的替代品。而且有欧洲支持它，再加上 $NVDA 的评估。 这需要时间……比如到 2026 年 10 月，开发应该能完成。 然后 2027 年产量会逐步扩大，到 2028 年进入（大规模量产），毕竟他们从 2023 年就开始搞了。 现在所有人都觉得它就是个低迷的汽车供应商。好在欧洲公司嘛，大家习惯看 TTM 营收，而不是盯着未来增长。 所以它就这么莫名其妙地领导了欧盟打造一个 $TSEM 式的硅光子学代工厂及供应链，市值大约 €11 亿？ 日月光（ASE）的研发总监和其他人都把它列为未来的 CPO 路线。 我可能在很多事情上都太早了，但当然大部分的风险回报就来自一点信念，赌它能商业化。 不然大家也可以直接选 Tower 这条更稳妥的路（我之前也写过一篇关于它的分析，也挺喜欢的）。
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文@Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.中文 · 翻译@Jornka329996 你是不是上头了，我这周发过 $XFAB 的内容啊。 他们跟 $NVDA 和 $NOK 合作的硅光子平台，量产要到 2027/2028 下半年。 我觉得这是一个风险大幅释放的上市前长线标的，看起来就像下一个 $TSEM。还有 SiC/GaN 带来的上涨空间。 就是需要时间。
- English · 原文Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets. CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints. Did I miss something? Or did markets miss something?中文 · 翻译说实话，$XFAB 的低调劲儿真挺像早期的 $TSEM。 市值连 20 亿都不到。 你基本找不到第二家像这样的公司——$NVDA 和 $NOK 都在积极帮你站台，验证你那还没商用的硅光子晶圆厂（photonixFAB）…… 同时还拿了《芯片法案》/政府补贴来补贴资本支出。 同时还在牵头搞欧洲的光子供应链建设。 感觉光凭这一点就足以撑起估值了……但你还能白捡它的功率半导体 SiC/GaN 业务，以及所有资产。 明天《芯片法案》2.0 就要出来了，而 $XFAB 被列在了光子学蓝图上。 是我漏掉了什么吗？ 还是市场漏掉了什么？
- English · 原文$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.中文 · 翻译$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）在市值 $12.8 亿的情况下，是一个值得关注的多头思路，我已经建仓。 因为今天 EU CHIPS 法案 2 出炉，对欧洲光子学玩家是个催化剂。 > 800 VDC 功率半导体业务，通过 $NVDA 传导到 $NVTS + $POWI > 硅光子 / CPO 业务，$NVDA 正在评估其大规模量产潜力（光收发器/交换机） > 是美国唯一一家大规模量产 SiC 的代工厂。 > 也是关键 MEMS 代工厂之一 > 市净率约 1.29 倍，差不多是我当时做多 $SOI 时的水平。受传统业务拖累，估值偏低 > 我个人估算 2028 年前瞻市盈率约 6.5-8.5 倍 > 有政府背书： - EU CHIPS 法案，1.28 亿欧元 - 美国 CHIPS 法案，5000 万美元 PMT（商务部）。 后续可能还有更多（这本身就说明它对西方供应链至关重要）。 所以到某个时间点，算上所有补贴，它们的资本开支基本就是政府买单了。 EU CHIPS 法案 2 这周就要公布，我猜 $XFAB 大概率会被纳入，因为它们之前就在名单里，而且这个方案专门针对光子学。 ~$13 亿的市值，如果它能像 Soitec 那样来个反转（低市净率、极高增长板块、汽车传统业务拖累），我觉得很有吸引力。 至于和 $NVDA 在硅光子方面的合作，项目名称是“photonixFAB”。 市场很可能忽略了 XFab 主导的这层硅光子合作（就像我当时做多 $TSEM 时一样），只是换了个名字存在。 在功率半导体方面，XFAB 就是 SiC 的代名词，和 $NVTS 也是关联的。在 PCN-22181 文件中，$POWI 明确把 XFAB 列为它的代工厂。 考虑到它兼具功率半导体和光子学两大增长点、低市净率、有政府兜底（当然，你自己研究，我只是分享个人看法） 我个人觉得挺有吸引力的。
- English · 原文Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone. I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI. And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq中文 · 翻译哇塞，40 万关注了！谢谢大家。 从 $TSEM 到 $AAOI，我很享受免费跟所有人分享想法这个过程。 尤其是当这些方向判断最终对了，还能帮别人建立起自己的信念感，那就更好了。https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq