TSEM高塔半导体 ADR
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
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TSEM 整体偏多（看多 4 · 看空 0）
Tower Semi宣布扩建300mm硅光子、硅锗及先进封装产能，目标2028年营收36亿美元。
最近发言：2026/08/13 09:46 · 信心分 5/10
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历史观点（15 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.中文 · 翻译感觉我今年二月关于 $IQE 的投资论点，跟 $AXTI 等其他股票一样，都得到了验证。(我仍然持有这两只股票的多头仓位) 所以我就没那么频繁地写它们了。不过关于最新的进展，长话短说： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于 IQE 的论点时，它在光学供应链中是一个处于困境但至关重要的瓶颈，与 $LITE 等公司有联系。 自那时起： - $MTSI 签订了长期磊晶片供应协议，并持有该公司股份，现在 IQE 已经摆脱了银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签订了 InP 磊晶片协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 磊晶片供应”。 - IQE 又签了一份约 1400 万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中唯一还在发展的部分是 IQE 将其闲置/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以赶上 Landmark 等同行（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，大概一年多一点）。 这里面有一些我不想谈的国家安全考量，让它们变得更加重要。 但总的来说： 2025 财年营收：9730 万英镑 2026 财年指引：超过 1.265 亿英镑 它们在光学领域又开始快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并且仍然是西方光学供应链中的一个关键瓶颈。 现在……有了与领先光子学公司的新协议来推动营收增长，以及 Macom 这样的参与者作为软性支撑。 投资论点得到验证后，我通常就会坐享业务增长了。
- English · 原文Yeah my thought was $XFAB could be an early $TSEM with actual SiC/MEMs foundry kinda bridging the gap while they develop their photonics arm. They did reiterate exposure to CPO and 2028 timeline isn't priced into any revenue models yet (which I liked about them). Might be a tad early, but we're getting closer in H2 2026 and the ER statements were very helpful.中文 · 翻译嗯，我当时想，$XFAB 有点像一个早期的 $TSEM，它有实打实的 SiC/MEMS 代工能力，某种程度上是在弥补市场空白，同时他们也在发展光子学业务。 他们确实重申了在 CPO 方面的布局，而且 2028 年的时间线还没有被任何营收模型计入（这点我挺喜欢他们的）。 可能有点早，但我们正在向 2026 年下半年靠拢，而且财报里的声明非常有帮助。
- English · 原文Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.中文 · 翻译今天有两家公司宣布产能扩张，分别是 $TSEM 和 $AAOI。 Tower Semi 在日本政府支持下，宣布扩建其 300 毫米硅光子 (SiPho)、硅锗 (SiGe) 和先进封装产能。 目标是 2028 年实现 12 亿美元净利润和 36 亿美元营收（按约 280 亿美元市值计算，2028 年远期市盈率约为 23.3 倍）。 AAOI 宣布其扩建项目正式启动，将新建约 40 万平方英尺的生产设施，用于加速 800g/1.6T 产品的生产。 这次整体扩张也得到了德克萨斯州当地市政府的支持。（他们早些时候还获得了州政府 2085 万美元的补贴）。 这次 AAOI 的消息没有 Tower 那么新鲜，因为 AAOI 之前就已经宣布了这些计划。现在只是正式启动而已。 不管怎样，很高兴看到这两家公司都进入了他们的“动漫训练期”，正在积蓄力量。
- English · 原文OpenLight (private) seems to get bigger and bigger every time I look at it. If you’re curious about their public ecosystem outside of Advantest: $JBL ( $SIVE partner ) for scaling PICs $MRVL and $MXL for DSPs $TSEM for the foundry. $300394.SZ / TFC Optical (OSAT/subassembly) Can often get exposure into private growth through public equities if you’re not an accredited investor. Since optical players look very interconnected.中文 · 翻译每次看OpenLight（未上市），感觉它规模越来越大了。 如果你好奇他们在Advantest之外的公开生态系统： $JBL（$SIVE的合作伙伴）负责扩大PIC规模 $MRVL和$MXL负责DSP $TSEM负责晶圆代工。 $300394.SZ / TFC Optical（封测/组件组装） 如果你不是合格投资者，往往能通过公开股票间接参与未上市公司的成长。 毕竟光学玩家之间的关联度非常高。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS中文 · 翻译哇，$TSEM 今天涨了 10% 以上。 好日子，回头想想三月份就该把它弄成我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这些晶圆代工厂最近涨得飞起。https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
- English · 原文So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.中文 · 翻译所以短期拉升的话，我觉得 $LPK 可能会走得更陡峭一些。 因为设备供应商从认证阶段切换到量产阶段时——就像最近 $AEHR 和 $AIXA 那样——它们通常会被重新估值到 30-70 亿美元的市值。 但 99% 的公司从结构上看，天花板还是比较明显的。 长期来看，我个人觉得 $XFAB 的上行空间要大得多，如果它们能主导欧洲的光子供应链，并且用 MTP 做出一个 $TSEM 的替代方案的话。不过现在还处在更早期的阶段。
- English · 原文Wow, $IQE and $TSEM sign a multi year InP epiwafer deal. Remember I told you all IQE was important to Western optical supply chains back at $12? $MTSI had to go out of their way to secure their supply with IQE. Now there’s another critical deal with Tower Semi. https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU中文 · 翻译哇，$IQE 和 $TSEM 签了一份多年期的 InP 外延片协议。 还记得我当初在 $12 的时候告诉你们，IQE 对西方光通信供应链有多重要吗？ $MTSI 当初可是费了很大劲才跟 IQE 锁定了供应。 现在又跟 Tower Semi 签了一个关键协议。https://t.co/4A5PAuA3PU
- English · 原文Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).中文 · 翻译为什么我一直被问到这些问题！！！ $XFAB 正在打造一个硅光子学代工厂，作为 $TSEM 和 $GFS 的替代品。而且有欧洲支持它，再加上 $NVDA 的评估。 这需要时间……比如到 2026 年 10 月，开发应该能完成。 然后 2027 年产量会逐步扩大，到 2028 年进入（大规模量产），毕竟他们从 2023 年就开始搞了。 现在所有人都觉得它就是个低迷的汽车供应商。好在欧洲公司嘛，大家习惯看 TTM 营收，而不是盯着未来增长。 所以它就这么莫名其妙地领导了欧盟打造一个 $TSEM 式的硅光子学代工厂及供应链，市值大约 €11 亿？ 日月光（ASE）的研发总监和其他人都把它列为未来的 CPO 路线。 我可能在很多事情上都太早了，但当然大部分的风险回报就来自一点信念，赌它能商业化。 不然大家也可以直接选 Tower 这条更稳妥的路（我之前也写过一篇关于它的分析，也挺喜欢的）。
- English · 原文Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.中文 · 翻译这些公司，我随口一说哈： - $ASX - 住友电气 - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - 创意电子 (AlChip) - $TSEM - $FN - 古河电气 - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR 所以说，基本上就是在市值 100 亿到 1000 亿美元区间的 AI 相关股票。 跟大盘指数或者像 $ARM、$MRVL 这种已经涨了一大截的股票比起来，它们现在的投资回报率可能更吸引人，对吧？ （声明一下，我只对上面提到的 $NBIS、$TSEM、$AAOI 有投资兴趣） 我经常提到很多小盘股，不过也就是为了追求超额回报。 感觉这些公司好多都还有上涨空间。
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文@Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.中文 · 翻译@Jornka329996 你是不是上头了，我这周发过 $XFAB 的内容啊。 他们跟 $NVDA 和 $NOK 合作的硅光子平台，量产要到 2027/2028 下半年。 我觉得这是一个风险大幅释放的上市前长线标的，看起来就像下一个 $TSEM。还有 SiC/GaN 带来的上涨空间。 就是需要时间。
- English · 原文Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets. CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints. Did I miss something? Or did markets miss something?中文 · 翻译说实话，$XFAB 的低调劲儿真挺像早期的 $TSEM。 市值连 20 亿都不到。 你基本找不到第二家像这样的公司——$NVDA 和 $NOK 都在积极帮你站台，验证你那还没商用的硅光子晶圆厂（photonixFAB）…… 同时还拿了《芯片法案》/政府补贴来补贴资本支出。 同时还在牵头搞欧洲的光子供应链建设。 感觉光凭这一点就足以撑起估值了……但你还能白捡它的功率半导体 SiC/GaN 业务，以及所有资产。 明天《芯片法案》2.0 就要出来了，而 $XFAB 被列在了光子学蓝图上。 是我漏掉了什么吗？ 还是市场漏掉了什么？
- English · 原文$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.中文 · 翻译$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）在市值 $12.8 亿的情况下，是一个值得关注的多头思路，我已经建仓。 因为今天 EU CHIPS 法案 2 出炉，对欧洲光子学玩家是个催化剂。 > 800 VDC 功率半导体业务，通过 $NVDA 传导到 $NVTS + $POWI > 硅光子 / CPO 业务，$NVDA 正在评估其大规模量产潜力（光收发器/交换机） > 是美国唯一一家大规模量产 SiC 的代工厂。 > 也是关键 MEMS 代工厂之一 > 市净率约 1.29 倍，差不多是我当时做多 $SOI 时的水平。受传统业务拖累，估值偏低 > 我个人估算 2028 年前瞻市盈率约 6.5-8.5 倍 > 有政府背书： - EU CHIPS 法案，1.28 亿欧元 - 美国 CHIPS 法案，5000 万美元 PMT（商务部）。 后续可能还有更多（这本身就说明它对西方供应链至关重要）。 所以到某个时间点，算上所有补贴，它们的资本开支基本就是政府买单了。 EU CHIPS 法案 2 这周就要公布，我猜 $XFAB 大概率会被纳入，因为它们之前就在名单里，而且这个方案专门针对光子学。 ~$13 亿的市值，如果它能像 Soitec 那样来个反转（低市净率、极高增长板块、汽车传统业务拖累），我觉得很有吸引力。 至于和 $NVDA 在硅光子方面的合作，项目名称是“photonixFAB”。 市场很可能忽略了 XFab 主导的这层硅光子合作（就像我当时做多 $TSEM 时一样），只是换了个名字存在。 在功率半导体方面，XFAB 就是 SiC 的代名词，和 $NVTS 也是关联的。在 PCN-22181 文件中，$POWI 明确把 XFAB 列为它的代工厂。 考虑到它兼具功率半导体和光子学两大增长点、低市净率、有政府兜底（当然，你自己研究，我只是分享个人看法） 我个人觉得挺有吸引力的。
- English · 原文Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone. I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI. And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq中文 · 翻译哇塞，40 万关注了！谢谢大家。 从 $TSEM 到 $AAOI，我很享受免费跟所有人分享想法这个过程。 尤其是当这些方向判断最终对了，还能帮别人建立起自己的信念感，那就更好了。https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
TSEM 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：