TSLA特斯拉
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
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预期特斯拉擎天柱机器人形态将与理想的通用机器人设计趋同，预示其未来潜力巨大。
最近发言：2026/08/19 02:51 · 信心分 6/10
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历史观点（16 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.中文 · 翻译Unitree (688836) 现在上市了。 并且在上涨 492.18% 之后，估值达到了约 533 亿美元。 我们终于有了一个人形机器人领域的重大上市公司基准。 作为参考，Agility (由 $NVDA、$AMZN 支持) 通过 $CCXI 预计将在第四季度以 25 亿美元的投前估值上市。 $TSLA 市值超 1 万亿美元，但 Optimus 被包裹在一家大得多的公司里面。 但我认为 Unitree 表明，公开市场对纯粹的人形机器人公司的需求远比人们预期的要大得多……
- English · 原文I think @elonmusk said it best: “Robots don’t all need to be humanoid. But a general-purpose robot intended to replace human labor should fit the world humans already built. Roger, roger.” Personally, I expect $TSLA Optimus form factor to converge to the right image. https://t.co/il7tND3n59中文 · 翻译我个人觉得 @elonmusk 说得太对了： “机器人不一定非得是人形的。 但是，通用型机器人如果目的是取代人类劳动，就应该适应人类已经建造好的这个世界。 明白，明白。” 我个人认为 $TSLA Optimus 的形态会趋向于右边这张图。https://t.co/il7tND3n59
- English · 原文Feels like every other car you see in SF is a Waymo. Short-medium term I see it as negligible impact to $UBER and $LYFT. Long term I see them cooked in US markets unless they act… Since autonomous vehicles can compress cost/margins of human ride shares by a lot. Then robotics can compress cost of delivery if Waymo launches a competitor to Uber Eats. Just like how people compare uber/lyft costs before rides, what people care about is lowest cost out of the bunch, and directionally Waymo/$TSLA would likely win there中文 · 翻译感觉在旧金山，每隔一辆车都能看到 Waymo。 短期到中期来看，我觉得这对 $UBER 和 $LYFT 的影响微乎其微。 长期来看，除非它们有所行动，否则在美国市场它们恐怕要完蛋了…… 因为自动驾驶汽车能大幅压缩人工网约车的成本/利润。如果 Waymo 再推出 Uber Eats 的竞争对手，那机器人送货还能进一步压缩配送成本。 就像大家打车前会比较 Uber/Lyft 的价格一样，人们最关心的就是哪家最便宜，从这个趋势来看，Waymo 和 $TSLA 很可能会赢。
- English · 原文Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.中文 · 翻译整理了些 $TSLA 财报电话会议记录里的重点： 埃隆·马斯克在二季度财报会议记录里说："我觉得擎天柱（Optimus）会是史上最伟大的产品。" 甚至在一季度，埃隆也曾表示："我觉得擎天柱会是我们最大的产品。不只是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，很可能也是有史以来最伟大的产品。" 他还说："我对此深信不疑。" 埃隆对人形机器人的信心如此坚定，无论是
- English · 原文He wouldn't have build a $1T company without pulling off all those moves. - Gets funding from Elon -> Pisses off $TSLA going independent - Gets funding from $MSFT -> Pisses of Microsoft by diluting them with other hyperscaler funding - Gets funding from $NVDA -> Builds their competing chip and funds Cerebras competitors for inference - Works with $AAPL on Apple Intelligence? -> Create their competing devices. - Potential lack of funding? -> Sign a lot of LTAs so the entire industry lives or dies off OpenAI succeeding. Whatever he's doing is working lol.中文 · 翻译他要是没做成所有这些操作，根本不可能打造出一个万亿美元公司。 - 从马斯克那里获得资金 → 激怒 $TSLA，走独立路线 - 从 $MSFT 那里获得资金 → 通过引入其他超大规模厂商的资金稀释微软的股份，惹恼了微软 - 从 $NVDA 那里获得资金 → 打造他们自己的竞争芯片，并为 Cerebras 的推理竞争对手提供资金 - 和 $AAPL 合作开发 Apple Intelligence？ → 然后制造他们自己的竞争设备。 - 潜在的资金短缺？ → 签署大量长期协议，让整个行业都与 OpenAI 的成败休戚相关。 不管他怎么做，反正都成功了，哈哈。
- English · 原文Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.中文 · 翻译就马斯克一个人。 - 他和 $SPCX 基本上是美国在太空领域领先的唯一原因。 - $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。 他有时候对时间表的判断会有点偏差，但大方向是对的，所以我很确定他能让美国机器人在全球再次称霸。 不过我个人持有 $CCXI，因为我觉得 Agility 目前通过美国供应链以及跟 $MELI/$AMZN 的合作，在量产和商业化方面有更纯粹的业务敞口。
- English · 原文Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.中文 · 翻译在我的看法，Agility Robotics 可以说是目前美国在商业化方面排第一的人形机器人玩家。 个人排名： 1. Agility Robotics （通过 $CCXI） 2. $TSLA Optimus （万亿美元市值以上公司） 3. Figure 2025年估值 390 亿美元，现在可能更高了。 特斯拉很可能
- English · 原文I’m personally long $CCXI and have highest concentration in Agility Robotics (NFA). It’s currently around a ~$4.9B valuation. Figure’s last round was $39B last year, and that was before the increasing interest in humanoids/robotics this year. Then a large part of $TSLA $1T+ valuations come from humanoids. I like companies like LeaderDrive… but usually the downstream players capture the most value in the end. And I find it rare to see one that has public exposure early on.中文 · 翻译我个人做多 $CCXI，在 Agility Robotics 上仓位最重（非财务建议）。 它目前的估值大概在 49 亿美元左右。 Figure 去年的最后一轮融资估值是 390 亿美元，而且那还是在今年人形机器人/机器人领域热度飙升之前。 接着，$TSLA 万亿+美元的估值，很大一部分是靠人形机器人撑起来的。 我喜欢 LeaderDrive 这类公司… 但通常最终还是下游玩家能捕获到大部分价值。 而且我发现，早期就有公开市场投资机会的这类公司很少见。
- English · 原文I wonder if humanoids is going to spark a new bottleneck/industry for robot cosmetics. Like a skin bottleneck. Or Aespa KPOP robot makeover as a service. So if $TSLA Optimus makes tens of millions of humanoids: Who’s going to make them all look hot?中文 · 翻译我好奇人形机器人会不会给“机器人美容”这个行业带来新的瓶颈/机遇。 比如皮肤方面的瓶颈。或者像 KPOP 组合 Aespa 那样的机器人改造服务。 所以如果 $TSLA 的 Optimus 生产出几千万个人形机器人： 谁来让它们都变得又酷又好看呢？
- English · 原文For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear. - Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus. LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally. Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory. Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal positions/thoughts. Humanoid sector is large, and as seen with Goldman Sachs report that "Korean companies will command a 30% direct and indirect share of global humanoid robot production". Lot of players out there globally. This was an older report but just linking it again since you see all of them pop up in GS institutional reports + what they cover. Agility Robotics is my personal favorite as of now.中文 · 翻译对于机器人公司，我比较看好宇树科技（Unitree）和敏捷机器人（Agility Robotics）这两家人形机器人公司。 我在敏捷机器人上的仓位最大，因为我个人更偏爱美国的人形机器人公司。 至于上游零部件，我目前持有： - Harmonic Drive (6324)，考虑到谐波减速器等部件在物料清单（BOM）中的高占比。 - Vishay Precision，用于传感器，并且可能是特斯拉擎天柱机器人的潜在供应商。 LeaderDrive (688017) 和 Schaeffler 我比较看好，但个人没有持有。 许多其他AI数据中心（DC）的公司，我也有一些间接的机器人敞口，比如存储器方面。 不建议任何人抄作业，只是分享个人仓位/想法。 人形机器人领域很大，正如高盛报告所显示，“韩国公司将占据全球人形机器人生产直接和间接份额的30%”。 全球有很多玩家。这是一份比较早的报告，但我只是再次链接它，因为你能在高盛的机构报告中看到他们都有提及 + 他们覆盖的公司。 敏捷机器人是我目前最喜欢的。
- English · 原文Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history. - Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX. - on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI - Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree humanoids to replace the human workforce - Star Wars laser beams from $EOS.ASX to AI DC lasers like $LITE. - Waymo and $TSLA self driving cars everywhere in urban cities - and we get industry Quantum commercialization end of decade This is kinda crazy to be an investor in this timeframe. Feels like every movie from the Star Wars Death Star to Skynet is coming to life. What’s next?中文 · 翻译说实话，2020-2030 这十年可能是人类历史上最牛批的（goated）十年。 - 借助 $RKLB 到 $SPCX，把大规模可重复使用火箭搞起来，用于轨道计算。 - 跟 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 一起，站在超级人工智能（ASI）和递归学习的临界点上。 - Boston Dynamics 和 Unitree 的人形机器人翻着后空翻，要来取代人类劳动力。 - 从 $EOS.ASX 的《星球大战》激光束，到 $LITE 这样的 AI 数据中心激光器。 - Waymo 和 $TSLA 的自动驾驶汽车，在城市里到处都是。 - 而且到本十年末，我们还能看到量子计算的商业化。 在这个时间段当投资者，真的有点疯狂。感觉就像从《星球大战》的死星到《终结者》的天网，每一部电影都在变成现实。 接下来是什么？
- English · 原文Robotics is next. Both deal count and investment amounts are skyrocketing per pitchbook March data (source: a16z) Good thing is: the same AI DC exposure often has cross-exposure to humanoid ramp. Like DRAM/NAND with memory (on humanoid inference/storage) or DFB lasers with photonics (FMCW LiDAR vision/sensing). Right now most exposure is upstream component parts… or programs within large players like $AMZN or $TSLA. So global IPO season H2 into 2027 for pure play humanoids/robotics companies is going to be fun.中文 · 翻译机器人是下一个大方向。 根据 PitchBook 三月份的数据（来源：a16z），无论是交易数量还是投资金额都在飙升。 好消息是：那些同样投资 AI 数据中心的人，往往也与人形机器人量产布局有交叉。 比如 DRAM/NAND 与内存（用做人形机器人的推理/存储），或者 DFB 激光器与光子学（FMCW LiDAR 视觉/传感）。 目前大部分敞口集中在上游零部件……或者像 $AMZN 或 $TSLA 这类大玩家内部的计划。 所以，从今年下半年到 2027 年的全球 IPO 季，对于纯人形机器人/机器人公司来说，将会非常有意思。
- English · 原文Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.中文 · 翻译今天有个很有意思的发言：$MU 的 CEO 预测，受仿人机器人驱动，会出现一个持续数十年的内存需求周期。 “他说，仿人机器人所需的存储容量大约是今天 L2+ 级别自动驾驶汽车所需的十倍。” “而且这股需求浪潮预计会在本十年结束前开始。” 他还提到，“长期来看，我们预计端侧 AI 的价值，加上被压抑的换机需求，将共同推动内存需求的增长。” 这其实也是另一个趋势（Apple Intelligence 目前确实拉胯，但我相信我们在本地化/边缘 AI 方面肯定会看到创新）。 感觉从 $TSM 董事长、$TSLA 的 Elon Musk，到 $MU 的 CEO，所有行业领袖都把仿人机器人视为下一个大趋势，所以物理 AI 很可能就是下一步。 我有点好奇，全球的存储供应够不够用。或者说，我们能不能看到足够多的技术突破，把内存的需求量降下来。
- English · 原文Don’t quite think “siphoned off” is the correct term. It’s capex for massive revenue increase or margin increase down the line. $AMZN is probably my favorite hyperscaler right now and example to give. Amazon’s headcount is absurd, like ~1.57M. If the capex goes into automating their workforce with LLMs. Then transitioning into physical AI: - things from self driving (deliveries) - robotics (Amazon warehouses, shipping automation). + revenue increase from building out AWS compute with Trainium and possibly selling chips too with the Neocloud strat. It’s probably the clearest path forward compared to every hyperscaler out there. $TSLA optimus use case targets is extremely broad as a pitch, but Amazon already has a specific reason to scale robotics for internal opex optimization. As for $GOOGL, probably 2nd right now, AI capex was necessary for defending its Google Search moat Gemini from ChatGPT They also have Google Cloud revenue with efficient TPUs + can sell TPUs like Nvidia GPUs. Gemini user volumes keep going up (despite the lack of contention in frontier benchmarks); and AI strategy to be working for ad optimization too. But there’s less clear paths with physical AI stuff ig? Microsoft and Meta are still trying to convince the market why capex is necessary, (we’re kinda seeing that in effect with Meta’s 30%+ Y/Y revenue growth), but doesn’t look like they’re convinced. As for market narratives, Microsoft Maia seems to be behind, their AI development was stunted from OpenAi investments, so sentiment is kinda in the ground. But think that will change down the road like the 180 with Google. I’m sure all the hyperscalers are seeing the leader effect right now: If you have the leading LLM, people will keep using it. That LLM gets smarter from all the training data; and that gap might be structural. Which is why everyone is kinda rushing the buildout right now, but for some the immediate incentives seem obvious.中文 · 翻译不太觉得“抽走资金”这个说法准确。 这是为了之后大幅增加收入或利润率做的资本支出。 $AMZN 可能是我目前最喜欢的超大规模云厂商，也可以拿它来举例。 亚马逊的员工人数很夸张，大概有 157 万。如果这些资本支出是用来通过大语言模型实现劳动力自动化。 然后过渡到物理 AI： - 自动驾驶相关（送货） - 机器人技术（亚马逊仓库、航运自动化）。 再加上通过 Trainium 扩展 AWS 算力并利用 Neocloud 策略可能销售芯片带来的收入增长。 跟所有其他超大规模云厂商相比，亚马逊的路径可能是最清晰的。 $TSLA Optimus 的使用场景目标太宽泛，但亚马逊已经有了具体理由来扩大机器人规模，用于内部运营成本优化。 至于 $GOOGL，目前可能排第二，AI 资本支出对于保护谷歌搜索护城河 Gemini 对抗 ChatGPT 是必要的。 他们还有谷歌云的营收，搭配高效的 TPU，也可以像英伟达 GPU 那样卖 TPU。 Gemini 用户量一直在增长（尽管在前沿基准测试上缺乏竞争力）；AI 策略也在为广告优化发挥作用。 但在物理 AI 方面，路径更模糊，我猜？ 微软和 Meta 还在努力说服市场为什么资本支出是必要的（我们其实从 Meta 超过 30% 的同比增长营收中看到了效果），但市场似乎并不买账。 至于市场叙事，微软的 Maia 似乎落后了，他们的 AI 开发因为 OpenAI 的投资而受阻，所以市场情绪基本上跌到谷底。 但我觉得未来会像谷歌那样来个 180 度大转弯。 我敢肯定所有超大规模云厂商现在都看到了领先者效应： 如果你拥有领先的大语言模型，人们就会一直用。那个大语言模型会从所有训练数据中变得更聪明；而这个差距可能是结构性的。 这就是为什么现在大家都在抢着搞建设，但对某些厂商来说，眼前的激励显然更明显。
- English · 原文(disclosure: I don't own shares of Leaderdrive, I'm just publishing my research for free). For LeaderDrive, it's a material percentage of every humanoid that gets developed. AGIBot and Unitree has only started to scale up recently, and figures has just reached 10k units shipped (agibot). So P/E valuations would be very high currently since humanoids are not in mass production. Markets are forward looking though. If you think Tesla Optimus, Unitree can mass produce tens of millions or hundreds of millions of robots in the next few years. With trillions of dollars flowing into the humanoid industry. If you have 5% market capture of robot that gets made for the humanoid rollout. That's would command a much higher valuation than Leaderdrive's current marketcap. So LeaderDrive was the robotics player I've identified with the most exposure so far.中文 · 翻译（说明：我不持有 Leaderdrive 的股票，只是免费分享我的研究）。 对 LeaderDrive 来说，每开发一台人形机器人，它都能从中拿到一个可观的百分比。 AGIBot 和 Unitree 最近才开始放量，AGIBot 的出货量才刚刚达到 1 万台。所以目前人形机器人还没进入大规模量产，市盈率估值会非常高。 不过市场是向前看的。如果你认为特斯拉 Optimus、Unitree 在未来几年能大规模生产数千万甚至数亿台机器人—— 而数万亿美元正涌入人形机器人产业。 假如你能在人形机器人 rollout 中拿到 5% 的机器人市场份额，那估值就会远超 LeaderDrive 当前的市值。 所以到目前为止，LeaderDrive 是我发现的人形机器人领域里，仓位最集中的那个玩家。
- English · 原文Well $VPG ended up tripling since my thesis post. I got the ASP wrong in my original thesis, was $150 mass production rather than ~$750 midpoint quoted by management. And $TSLA design out risk made me cut concentration. But 3x regardless not too shabby. https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg中文 · 翻译$VPG 从我的观点分享到现在，已经涨了三倍了。 当初我那个 thesis 里 ASP 算错了，实际量产价格是 $150，不是管理层说的中点价大概 $750。 而且 $TSLA 设计被踢出的风险，也让我减了仓位。 不过不管怎么说，3 倍也挺不错了。https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
TSLA 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：