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历史观点（18 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.中文 · 翻译说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。 还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。 所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。 台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
- English · 原文Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.中文 · 翻译今天有个很有意思的发言：$MU 的 CEO 预测，受仿人机器人驱动，会出现一个持续数十年的内存需求周期。 “他说，仿人机器人所需的存储容量大约是今天 L2+ 级别自动驾驶汽车所需的十倍。” “而且这股需求浪潮预计会在本十年结束前开始。” 他还提到，“长期来看，我们预计端侧 AI 的价值，加上被压抑的换机需求，将共同推动内存需求的增长。” 这其实也是另一个趋势（Apple Intelligence 目前确实拉胯，但我相信我们在本地化/边缘 AI 方面肯定会看到创新）。 感觉从 $TSM 董事长、$TSLA 的 Elon Musk，到 $MU 的 CEO，所有行业领袖都把仿人机器人视为下一个大趋势，所以物理 AI 很可能就是下一步。 我有点好奇，全球的存储供应够不够用。或者说，我们能不能看到足够多的技术突破，把内存的需求量降下来。
- English · 原文@mindmoon_108 @Akaletiko Eh, maybe other way around where $TSM sees what memory players are doing and starts price hiking too.中文 · 翻译@mindmoon_108 @Akaletiko 呃，也许反过来，是 $TSM 看到存储厂商们在做什么，也开始跟着涨价。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.中文 · 翻译这次回调对我来说个人就像个明确的买入机会，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM。 因为我们在没有任何新的实质宏观经济数据（周四才出）的情况下，就因为“3次加息”这种扯淡叙事经历了一波猛跌。 如果机构真的相信美银抛出来的“3次加息”这种卖方垃圾： 它们会在 CME/预测市场上借此获利。 而市场仍在预测7月有74%的概率不加息。但它们并没有这么做。 所以它们是在给散户投资者喂屎。
- English · 原文@Semiconsight I think my M&A ideas are generally pretty compelling! Apollo fully bought out one of the $TSM Japanese suppliers I identified earlier lol.中文 · 翻译@Semiconsight 我觉得我提的并购想法通常都挺有意思的！ Apollo 直接把我之前说的 $TSM 日本供应商之一整个买下来了，哈哈。
- English · 原文@Joey_TheFarmer My thesis hasn't changed with FOCI, they'll be part of the bottleneck with FAU + passive components in $NVDA $TSM ecosystem as that COUPE scales up.中文 · 翻译@Joey_TheFarmer 我对 FOCI 的看法没有改变，随着 COUPE 规模扩大，他们将成为 $NVDA $TSM 生态系统中 FAU + 被动元件瓶颈的一部分。
- English · 原文I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027 + their partners. Then there's major shifts like TSM CoPoS 2028 (seems possible $LPK upstream exposure, unconfirmed). Just that claim of 80% is staggering and my personal expectation was markets might price it in eventually as they volume ramp (disclosure, own LPK). Don't think there needs to be any major news, probably just getting closer to HVM timelines.中文 · 翻译我是说……要我猜的话，$LPK 确实声称过"全球主要客户中有 80% 都选用了 LPKF 设备"。 玻璃基板明显就是下一代封装变革的方向！ 按照预估的时间线，像 Absolics 这样的大玩家在 2026 下半年开始扩产，三星电机在 2027 年，加上他们的合作伙伴。 然后还有像台积电 CoPoS 2028 这种重大转变（$LPK 上游可能受益，未经确认）。 光是那个 80% 的声称就够惊人的了，我个人原本预期市场可能会随着它们量产的推进而逐步消化这个信息（披露：我持有 LPK）。 我觉得不需要什么重大新闻，大概就是越来越接近 HVM 时间线就行了。
- English · 原文Still holding Foci/Nextronics. There was a CPO bear post from an analyst that said there would be delays (which $NVDA denied), which caused CPO related stocks to crash. Personally think Foci will end up a bottleneck for $TSM COUPE / $NVDA and Nextronics to be a beneficiary of optical components relative to MC in $NVDA supply chains. We'll see how this plays out.中文 · 翻译还在拿着 Foci/Nextronics。之前有个分析师发了篇关于 CPO 的看空帖，说项目会有延迟（$NVDA 否认了这点），结果 CPO 相关股票就崩了。 我个人觉得，Foci 最终会成为 $TSM COUPE / $NVDA 的一个瓶颈，而 Nextronics 则会受益于 $NVDA 供应链里光学组件相比 MC 的地位。 看后面怎么走吧。
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译说白了就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户冲得太早了，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 上几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在，你会看到摩根大通、富达研究这些活跃机构出现在股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生过同样的事。 > 我当时指出机构累积持仓接近<30%，还说过他们想要更多筹码。 > 机构把流通盘大部分都吃掉了 > 当时一堆负面文章，现在全是利好，股价还创新高。 两年前是 $RKLB > 我 $16 的时候就做多了，但机构分析师一直在给历史最低的目标价，叫散户卖，尽管它的火箭复用率那么高。 > 散户卖了，机构持仓却堆上去了 > 现在又创新高 我看好 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有人暗示你在 $HIMX 旁边、以 25 亿美元估值就卖掉它。 所以如果你看到卖方的负面报告，或者一波莫名其妙的坏消息，那可能是个好信号——他们需要流动性。 最近一些小型对冲基金已经急到甚至可能在 X 上用机器人农场来喊散户卖股票了，哈哈……我最近刚揭露过这事。 不管怎样，这也是为什么我花大量时间研究具体个股，这样人们才能在噪声中建立自己的信念。 不幸的是，这就是现代流动性周期/转移（美国散户 → 机构）运作的一部分，是生活的常态。 它们从来就不是为散户的利益服务的。
- English · 原文@vipmoaa $TSM is probably one of the better names to do that for. Probably better RoI than your depreciating car中文 · 翻译@vipmoaa $TSM 可能是做这个操作比较好的标的之一。 可能比你那辆贬值的车回报率更高。
- English · 原文Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.中文 · 翻译正好有很多关于玻璃基板的时间线被重申了（来源：Trendforce）： - SKC Absolics (011790) 2026 下半年（先行者 x $AMAT） - $AMD 的客户 - 三星电机 2027 下半年 (009150) x 住友化学 (4005) - 苹果 / $AVGO / 超大规模云厂商 至于 $INTC 2030 年的那些说法，我不清楚，等着看吧。 $TSM 的 CoPoS（基板级扇出封装）2-3 年的时程是对的，从最近台积电董事长的言论就能看出来。群创（Innolux）是个有趣的受益标的。$SHMD 理论上也该受益于台积电，但它的财务状况太糟糕了。 同样的玩家应该会反复出现，比如群创 + SKC。 这也适用于 $LPK 以及这些扩产周期里的上游设备供应商。
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文@RockyKh49376975 Probably just Xintech (3374) which is kinda the unknown $TSM COUPE supplier. They happen to be owned by TSMC too.中文 · 翻译@RockyKh49376975 大概就只是鑫创（3374）吧，算是那种不怎么为人知的 $TSM 的 COUPE 供应商。 而且他们还恰好是被台积电持有的。
- English · 原文I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.中文 · 翻译从没想过有一天会看到 $GOOGL 需要募集 800 亿美元搞 AI 资本开支…… 接着沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 又给超大规模 AI 基建砸钱。 - 400 亿 ATM（在架发行），300 亿增发，伯克希尔 100 亿 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO 到联发科到 $TSM 到 $MU 的上游生态应该要起飞了。 不过谷歌的股东们恐怕没那么开心，因为这么大手笔的资本开支不是靠自由现金流撑起来的。
- English · 原文几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇中文 · 翻译中文翻译生成中
- English · 原文@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company. They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC. Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.中文 · 翻译@_juicebox99_ 我不觉得 FOCI 能成为市值超过 500 亿美元的公司。 他们专注的就是单一赛道，比如为 $TSM / $NVDA 提供光学元件和 FAU，然后规模化生产。所以这很可能带来与市值相关的结构性重估。 这和美国的 TAM 扩张到千亿美元级别的公司模式，不太一样。