TSM台积电 ADR
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
TSM 整体偏多（看多 6 · 看空 0）
被提及为FOCI光器件和FAU的下游客户。
最近发言：2026/08/18 14:03 · 无信心分
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历史观点（26 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.中文 · 翻译从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 的走势来看，AI 半导体板块现在是下跌的。那些高贝塔值的股票，看起来跌得最惨。 从我观察过的光学股走势来看，$LITE / $COHR 回升得最快，接着是像 $AAOI / $AXTI 这种体量更大但贝塔值仍然很高的股票（恢复了一半）。 然后像 $SIVE / $POET 这类股票，恢复时间最长。但我确实看到，当市场风险偏好提升，或者财报迫使市场重新估值的时候，这些股票的反弹会更猛。
- English · 原文I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”中文 · 翻译我还是觉得没人知道现实生活中怎么发音或者讨论 $AAOI。 它比 $TSM 或 $AMD 多一个字母，说起来太长了。 而且没人会跟朋友说“哇，我喜欢应用光电！”
- English · 原文Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 million range" Q2 2026 (now): "expect to exceed that range by the end of the third quarter, and to significantly exceed the $20 million level for the year overall." Management stated "We’re seeing some significant acceleration in this [CPO] business". Q: CPO adoption outlook. Are we perhaps expecting the timeline to accelerate a little bit? A: "What I would say is there’s acceleration here in the very short term." But management stated there's not a significant pull-in on timelines. Citing production infrastructure (not just R&D) for: - The growing volumes of CPO chips planned for later this year + test insertion for scale-up and scale-out switches. - Seems like that CPO piece flows through $TSM COUPE [ likely maps to $NVDA CPO products] - "The CPO piece does flow through that 10% customer" So now, test is ramping given management cited growing volumes of CPO chips. "The rapid recent growth of our CPO business is an exciting development, which we believe represents the very early stages of widespread adoption of silicon photonics in the broader semiconductor industry" TLDR: Fundamentally, CPO as a theme is very early, and should start to go brrr soon since it's starting to show up in earnings now (equipment/test players usually appear up first before optical engines / laser volumes ramp). Personally once all the deleveraging stops, I think markets will start to care more.中文 · 翻译整理了 $FORM 财报电话会上关于 CPO 的一些有意思的看点： 因为他们将系统收入几乎翻倍归因于：“共同封装光学器件（CPO）的加速增长”。 2026 年第一季度（预测）：“我们现在预计 2026 年 CPO 收入将达到 1000 万至 2000 万美元区间的上限。” 2026 年第二季度（最新预测）：“预计到第三季度末将超出该范围，全年 CPO 收入将显著超过 2000 万美元。” 管理层表示：“我们看到这项 CPO 业务正在显著加速。” 问：CPO 的采用前景如何？我们是否可以期待时间表能稍微提前一些？ 答：“我想说的是，短期内确实有加速。”但管理层表示，时间表没有显著提前。 提到需要生产基础设施（不仅仅是研发），是为了： - 今年晚些时候计划的 CPO 芯片产量增长 + 用于横向扩展和纵向扩展交换机的测试导入。 - 看起来 CPO 这块业务是通过 $TSM COUPE 走的 [ 很可能对应的是 $NVDA 的 CPO 产品 ] - “CPO 这块业务确实通过那个占我们 10% 收入的客户。” 所以现在，考虑到管理层提到了 CPO 芯片的产量正在增长，测试环节正在加速。 “我们 CPO 业务近期快速增长是一个令人振奋的进展，我们相信这代表了硅光子技术在更广泛半导体行业中普遍采用的早期阶段。” TLDR（太长不看）：从根本上看，CPO 作为一个主题还处于非常早期，但它已经开始在财报中显现（设备/测试厂商通常在光引擎/激光器出货量大增之前就先有表现），所以应该很快就要起飞了。 就我个人而言，一旦所有的去杠杆化停止，我觉得市场就会开始更关注它了。
- English · 原文Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.中文 · 翻译整理了些 $TSLA 财报电话会议记录里的重点： 埃隆·马斯克在二季度财报会议记录里说："我觉得擎天柱（Optimus）会是史上最伟大的产品。" 甚至在一季度，埃隆也曾表示："我觉得擎天柱会是我们最大的产品。不只是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，很可能也是有史以来最伟大的产品。" 他还说："我对此深信不疑。" 埃隆对人形机器人的信心如此坚定，无论是
- English · 原文Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.中文 · 翻译谢谢，喜欢看评论！ 高盛将 Innolight 目标价上调至 2581 元人民币。相对当前估值，还有大约 163.6% 的上涨空间。 但最重要的是，它将 2026-2028 年的盈利预测修正值大幅上调了 65%/108%/11
- English · 原文Apparently there’s a new popular trend to bearpost trillion dollar companies. Like $NVDA or $TSM. By finding isolating technical details, then blowing it out of proportions by claiming their whole program is delayed. -> if the company doesn’t respond, stock prices/sentiment are damaged. -> if the company issues a response, they can’t go into detail since supply chains are confidential… but people still doubt them -> Poster gain more impressions, then does it again with more views the next time. Don’t quite think this is very healthy, with more folks copying that playbook. Especially around incentive structures.中文 · 翻译貌似现在流行一种新趋势，就是专门去唱空那些万亿美元市值的公司。 比如 $NVDA 或 $TSM。 具体做法就是抓住一些孤立的技术细节，然后夸大其词，声称他们的整个项目都被延误了。 → 如果公司不回应，股价或市场情绪就会受损。 → 如果公司做出回应，又不能详细说明，因为供应链是保密的……但人们还是会怀疑他们。 → 发帖人获得更多曝光，下次会获得更多关注，然后又这么做。 我不觉得这很健康，因为越来越多的人开始效仿这种套路。尤其是在激励机制这块。
- English · 原文@yuntungshieh Hmm, maybe the influx of US buying pressure might have have a structural impact though? But I'm sure that's probably the case with a premium as seen with $TSM.中文 · 翻译@yuntungshieh 嗯，或许美国买盘的涌入会产生结构性影响吧？ 但我相信，这很可能就是带着溢价的情况，就像在 $TSM 上看到的那样。
- English · 原文@SidkMena Dunno, probably just sector selloff. Shunsin recebtly confirmed a direct $TSM COUPE partnership. Then proceeded to crash 15-20%. Don’t think there’s any material developments outside SemiAnalysis bearposting the Nvidia ecosystem over and over https://t.co/jxKIKup6F3中文 · 翻译@SidkMena 不知道，可能只是行业普遍抛售。Shunsin 最近确认直接和 $TSM 有 COUPE 合作。 然后股价就跌了 15-20%。 我觉得除了 SemiAnalysis 反复唱空英伟达生态系统外，应该没啥实质性进展了 https://t.co/jxKIKup6F3
- English · 原文FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.中文 · 翻译说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。 还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。 所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。 台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
- English · 原文Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.中文 · 翻译今天有个很有意思的发言：$MU 的 CEO 预测，受仿人机器人驱动，会出现一个持续数十年的内存需求周期。 “他说，仿人机器人所需的存储容量大约是今天 L2+ 级别自动驾驶汽车所需的十倍。” “而且这股需求浪潮预计会在本十年结束前开始。” 他还提到，“长期来看，我们预计端侧 AI 的价值，加上被压抑的换机需求，将共同推动内存需求的增长。” 这其实也是另一个趋势（Apple Intelligence 目前确实拉胯，但我相信我们在本地化/边缘 AI 方面肯定会看到创新）。 感觉从 $TSM 董事长、$TSLA 的 Elon Musk，到 $MU 的 CEO，所有行业领袖都把仿人机器人视为下一个大趋势，所以物理 AI 很可能就是下一步。 我有点好奇，全球的存储供应够不够用。或者说，我们能不能看到足够多的技术突破，把内存的需求量降下来。
- English · 原文@mindmoon_108 @Akaletiko Eh, maybe other way around where $TSM sees what memory players are doing and starts price hiking too.中文 · 翻译@mindmoon_108 @Akaletiko 呃，也许反过来，是 $TSM 看到存储厂商们在做什么，也开始跟着涨价。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.中文 · 翻译这次回调对我来说个人就像个明确的买入机会，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM。 因为我们在没有任何新的实质宏观经济数据（周四才出）的情况下，就因为“3次加息”这种扯淡叙事经历了一波猛跌。 如果机构真的相信美银抛出来的“3次加息”这种卖方垃圾： 它们会在 CME/预测市场上借此获利。 而市场仍在预测7月有74%的概率不加息。但它们并没有这么做。 所以它们是在给散户投资者喂屎。
- English · 原文@Semiconsight I think my M&A ideas are generally pretty compelling! Apollo fully bought out one of the $TSM Japanese suppliers I identified earlier lol.中文 · 翻译@Semiconsight 我觉得我提的并购想法通常都挺有意思的！ Apollo 直接把我之前说的 $TSM 日本供应商之一整个买下来了，哈哈。
- English · 原文@Joey_TheFarmer My thesis hasn't changed with FOCI, they'll be part of the bottleneck with FAU + passive components in $NVDA $TSM ecosystem as that COUPE scales up.中文 · 翻译@Joey_TheFarmer 我对 FOCI 的看法没有改变，随着 COUPE 规模扩大，他们将成为 $NVDA $TSM 生态系统中 FAU + 被动元件瓶颈的一部分。
- English · 原文I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027 + their partners. Then there's major shifts like TSM CoPoS 2028 (seems possible $LPK upstream exposure, unconfirmed). Just that claim of 80% is staggering and my personal expectation was markets might price it in eventually as they volume ramp (disclosure, own LPK). Don't think there needs to be any major news, probably just getting closer to HVM timelines.中文 · 翻译我是说……要我猜的话，$LPK 确实声称过"全球主要客户中有 80% 都选用了 LPKF 设备"。 玻璃基板明显就是下一代封装变革的方向！ 按照预估的时间线，像 Absolics 这样的大玩家在 2026 下半年开始扩产，三星电机在 2027 年，加上他们的合作伙伴。 然后还有像台积电 CoPoS 2028 这种重大转变（$LPK 上游可能受益，未经确认）。 光是那个 80% 的声称就够惊人的了，我个人原本预期市场可能会随着它们量产的推进而逐步消化这个信息（披露：我持有 LPK）。 我觉得不需要什么重大新闻，大概就是越来越接近 HVM 时间线就行了。
- English · 原文Still holding Foci/Nextronics. There was a CPO bear post from an analyst that said there would be delays (which $NVDA denied), which caused CPO related stocks to crash. Personally think Foci will end up a bottleneck for $TSM COUPE / $NVDA and Nextronics to be a beneficiary of optical components relative to MC in $NVDA supply chains. We'll see how this plays out.中文 · 翻译还在拿着 Foci/Nextronics。之前有个分析师发了篇关于 CPO 的看空帖，说项目会有延迟（$NVDA 否认了这点），结果 CPO 相关股票就崩了。 我个人觉得，Foci 最终会成为 $TSM COUPE / $NVDA 的一个瓶颈，而 Nextronics 则会受益于 $NVDA 供应链里光学组件相比 MC 的地位。 看后面怎么走吧。
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译基本就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户入场早，完全抢先了机构，抓住了下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在你看到摩根大通、富达研究部等一些活跃机构都出现在了股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生了同样的事。 > 我
- English · 原文@vipmoaa $TSM is probably one of the better names to do that for. Probably better RoI than your depreciating car中文 · 翻译@vipmoaa $TSM 可能是做这个操作比较好的标的之一。 可能比你那辆贬值的车回报率更高。
- English · 原文Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.中文 · 翻译Trendforce重申了一些关于玻璃基板，很有用的时间线（来源：Trendforce）： - SKC Absolics (011790) 2026年下半年（先行者，与 $AMAT 合作）- $AMD 的客户 - Samsung electromechanics 2027年下半年 (009150)，与 Sumitomo Chem (4005) 合作 - Apple / $AVGO / 超大规模厂商 关于 $INTC 2030年的报告，我就不清楚了，到时候看吧。 不过，$TSM CoPoS 说2-3年那个，从台积电董事长最近的评论来看确实是对的。Innolux 是个有意思的受益方。$SHMD 也应该会受益于台积电，但它财务状况实在有点糟糕。 同样的参与者应该会多次出现，比如 Innolux + SKC。 这也适用于 $LPK 以及围绕这些产能爬坡的上游设备供应商。
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文@RockyKh49376975 Probably just Xintech (3374) which is kinda the unknown $TSM COUPE supplier. They happen to be owned by TSMC too.中文 · 翻译@RockyKh49376975 大概就只是鑫创（3374）吧，算是那种不怎么为人知的 $TSM 的 COUPE 供应商。 而且他们还恰好是被台积电持有的。
- English · 原文I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.中文 · 翻译从没想过有一天会看到 $GOOGL 需要募集 800 亿美元搞 AI 资本开支…… 接着沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 又给超大规模 AI 基建砸钱。 - 400 亿 ATM（在架发行），300 亿增发，伯克希尔 100 亿 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO 到联发科到 $TSM 到 $MU 的上游生态应该要起飞了。 不过谷歌的股东们恐怕没那么开心，因为这么大手笔的资本开支不是靠自由现金流撑起来的。
- English · 原文几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇中文 · 翻译中文翻译生成中
- English · 原文@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company. They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC. Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.中文 · 翻译@_juicebox99_ 我不觉得 FOCI 能成为市值超过 500 亿美元的公司。 他们专注的就是单一赛道，比如为 $TSM / $NVDA 提供光学元件和 FAU，然后规模化生产。所以这很可能带来与市值相关的结构性重估。 这和美国的 TAM 扩张到千亿美元级别的公司模式，不太一样。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
TSM 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：