VPG · Serenity 持续观点

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

44.8万

专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。

结论速览

VPG 整体偏多（看多 3 · 看空 0）

被提及为KOL过去分析中涵盖过的一个名字。

最近发言：2026/07/12 12:23 · 信心分 5/10

8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及

历史观点（4 条，最新在上）

2026/07/12 12:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs. As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production. So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful here.
2026/07/12 12:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
所以，这指的是最终销售价格的成本，不是物料清单（BOM）成本。他们还在用 $13.4 万美元作为平均售价（ASP），而不是批量生产后低于 $2 万美元的成本。就像 $VPG 那样，每个传感器的价格从 $750 降到批量生产后的 $150。所以很多计算都变了，我觉得这个成本结构在这里并不是特别有用。
2026/06/29 23:01UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear. - Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus. LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally. Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory. Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal positions/thoughts. Humanoid sector is large, and as seen with Goldman Sachs report that "Korean companies will command a 30% direct and indirect share of global humanoid robot production". Lot of players out there globally. This was an older report but just linking it again since you see all of them pop up in GS institutional reports + what they cover. Agility Robotics is my personal favorite as of now.
2026/06/29 23:01UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
对于机器人公司，我比较看好宇树科技（Unitree）和敏捷机器人（Agility Robotics）这两家人形机器人公司。我在敏捷机器人上的仓位最大，因为我个人更偏爱美国的人形机器人公司。至于上游零部件，我目前持有： - Harmonic Drive (6324)，考虑到谐波减速器等部件在物料清单（BOM）中的高占比。 - Vishay Precision，用于传感器，并且可能是特斯拉擎天柱机器人的潜在供应商。 LeaderDrive (688017) 和 Schaeffler 我比较看好，但个人没有持有。许多其他AI数据中心（DC）的公司，我也有一些间接的机器人敞口，比如存储器方面。不建议任何人抄作业，只是分享个人仓位/想法。人形机器人领域很大，正如高盛报告所显示，“韩国公司将占据全球人形机器人生产直接和间接份额的30%”。全球有很多玩家。这是一份比较早的报告，但我只是再次链接它，因为你能在高盛的机构报告中看到他们都有提及 + 他们覆盖的公司。敏捷机器人是我目前最喜欢的。
2026/05/26 14:28UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Well $VPG ended up tripling since my thesis post. I got the ASP wrong in my original thesis, was $150 mass production rather than ~$750 midpoint quoted by management. And $TSLA design out risk made me cut concentration. But 3x regardless not too shabby. https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg
2026/05/26 14:28UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
$VPG 从我的观点分享到现在，已经涨了三倍了。当初我那个 thesis 里 ASP 算错了，实际量产价格是 $150，不是管理层说的中点价大概 $750。而且 $TSLA 设计被踢出的风险，也让我减了仓位。不过不管怎么说，3 倍也挺不错了。https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg
2026/05/24 20:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.
2026/05/24 20:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。

在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点

VPG 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：

$SIVE · 222 条观点 $AAOI · 124 条观点 $NVDA · 120 条观点

全部跟踪标的 →机构、内部人士与国会议员持仓动态 →

历史观点（4 条，最新在上）

2026/07/12 12:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

So this was cost of the final sale price, not BOM cost. They were also using $134K at ASP, not the volume ramped <$20k costs. As seen with $VPG that $750/sensor goes down to $150 at mass production. So lot of math changes, I didn’t find the cost structure particularly helpful here.

2026/07/12 12:23UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

所以，这指的是最终销售价格的成本，不是物料清单（BOM）成本。他们还在用 $13.4 万美元作为平均售价（ASP），而不是批量生产后低于 $2 万美元的成本。就像 $VPG 那样，每个传感器的价格从 $750 降到批量生产后的 $150。所以很多计算都变了，我觉得这个成本结构在这里并不是特别有用。

2026/06/29 23:01UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players. And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players. For upstream component exposure, I currently own: - Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear. - Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus. LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally. Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory. Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal positions/thoughts. Humanoid sector is large, and as seen with Goldman Sachs report that "Korean companies will command a 30% direct and indirect share of global humanoid robot production". Lot of players out there globally. This was an older report but just linking it again since you see all of them pop up in GS institutional reports + what they cover. Agility Robotics is my personal favorite as of now.

2026/06/29 23:01UTC看多信心分：5/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

对于机器人公司，我比较看好宇树科技（Unitree）和敏捷机器人（Agility Robotics）这两家人形机器人公司。我在敏捷机器人上的仓位最大，因为我个人更偏爱美国的人形机器人公司。至于上游零部件，我目前持有： - Harmonic Drive (6324)，考虑到谐波减速器等部件在物料清单（BOM）中的高占比。 - Vishay Precision，用于传感器，并且可能是特斯拉擎天柱机器人的潜在供应商。 LeaderDrive (688017) 和 Schaeffler 我比较看好，但个人没有持有。许多其他AI数据中心（DC）的公司，我也有一些间接的机器人敞口，比如存储器方面。不建议任何人抄作业，只是分享个人仓位/想法。人形机器人领域很大，正如高盛报告所显示，“韩国公司将占据全球人形机器人生产直接和间接份额的30%”。全球有很多玩家。这是一份比较早的报告，但我只是再次链接它，因为你能在高盛的机构报告中看到他们都有提及 + 他们覆盖的公司。敏捷机器人是我目前最喜欢的。

2026/05/26 14:28UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Well $VPG ended up tripling since my thesis post. I got the ASP wrong in my original thesis, was $150 mass production rather than ~$750 midpoint quoted by management. And $TSLA design out risk made me cut concentration. But 3x regardless not too shabby. https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg

2026/05/26 14:28UTC看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

$VPG 从我的观点分享到现在，已经涨了三倍了。当初我那个 thesis 里 ASP 算错了，实际量产价格是 $150，不是管理层说的中点价大概 $750。而且 $TSLA 设计被踢出的风险，也让我减了仓位。不过不管怎么说，3 倍也挺不错了。https://t.co/ksB8ZrnnEg

2026/05/24 20:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.

2026/05/24 20:21UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。

VPG威世精密

历史观点（4 条，最新在上）

VPG威世精密

历史观点（4 条，最新在上）