AAOIApplied Optoelectronics
78Bull5Bear41Mention
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
Focused on AI photonics and semiconductor supply chains — sourcing asymmetric setups from bottoms-up value-chain research. Tracks CPO & optical modules closely, with ongoing deep-dives on SIVE, AAOI, LITE, POET.
Quick verdict
AAOI is net bullish (78 bull · 5 bear)
AAOI possesses end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers, meeting strong hyperscaler demand and benefiting from US tax credits, despite near-term dilution.
Last spoke: 08/26/2026, 00:27 · conviction 7/10
8-10 confidence views use larger markers▲ Bull▼ Bear● Mention
View History (124, newest first)
- All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.
- Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
- @adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.
- Not exactly, I think $AAOI stated they avoided LTAs so they wouldn't have too much capacity committed to one customer and have to turn away others. If they signed LTAs with prepayments, then that in scenario there probably wouldn't need to be such sizeable ATMs. Decision was a bit surprising though considering how well $NVDA LTAs turned out well for $LITE / $COHR. I would assume though AOI gets more pricing leverage as time goes on due to current laser/transceiver shortages.
- Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.
- @OscarCantInvest I still have $AAOI positions but I can dislike financing methods/timing/amounts.
- It's getting much harder to support $AAOI when they keep dropping $500m or $600M ATMs left and right. At a certain point, the operating outlook could be positive. But the share structure/financing becomes increasingly shareholder unfriendly. Really, really, dislike ATMs and incessant capital raises, even if they're building up capacity.
- No, EML, CW, microLEDs are all parallel tracks, with silicon phonetics + CW being the main commercial focus for 2027-2028, especially for CPO. If anything, having memory/optical links adds another material TAM increase across laser suppliers including CW DFBs. Which are already in short supply. So we'll likely see another memory style shortage when 2027-2028 comes about... Given your top 3 are already sold out for next 2 years, and independent laser capacity coming online like $AAOI are now being used internally for transceivers rather than being sold.
- Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.
- We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.
- My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit: - Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins). - Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA). - Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE) - Has 300-400 mW lasers already. - Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating). I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...
- @abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.
- The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.
- As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.
- I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.
- @LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI blended gross margins goes up when they sell ELSFP and 1.6T optical transceivers.
- It’s fully up to you. But I’m expecting $AAOI to get close or maybe a 20% chance to surpass $LITE in revenue early H1 2028 if AOI fully executes on capacity projections. Which is pretty interesting when you look at the $12B vs ~$80B valuations (lot of it is better margins for Lumentum)
- You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.
- I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.
- If I had to categorize it: $SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027? $AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections? $POET = Waiting for Customers Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.
- Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.
- My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now. But TLDR of $COHR earnings: "given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally" - Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally... I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027) $AAOI -> Internal $COHR -> Internal Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity. "Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility] - Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years. "we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production" - Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck. "absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in" "we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027" - Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027. - "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027" - $COHR revenue go brrr So for regular numbers it's: - $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be happening entering Q4 into 2027 - Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2% Next quarter guide is: - Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue - Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5% Basically: $1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027) ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins) For operating margins: 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.
- No, because $AAOI said that their scarce capacity is dedicated internally toward making their own 800G/1.6T optical transceivers. Which they said would be a 20-40% demand imbalance even if all their capacity come online. It's not a bad thing to have too much demand, that you can't expand to new product lines.
- I said $LITE went from $3b to $60B+ over a 2-3 year timeframe, especially due from Cloud Light acquisition in late 2023, that multiplied TAM by 5x+. Since they started off in the EML laser / optical component chokepoint originally before M&A. $SIVE has the potential to do the same starting off in the CW laser chokepoint. But it does require something like a successful M&A down pluggables or optical engines/ELS. To capture more revenue off things like completed transceivers $AAOI, if they want to get to a similar scale. And my take was NASDAQ listing is necessary to unlock more funding to do so.
- @MaxChua16 The Serenity Awarness Fund would have bought 1/6th of $SIVE and $AAOI
- $AAOI: "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" This is just for early CPO related deployment read through.
- $LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings: Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth vs. ~$984.6M Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95 Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6% Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important: Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63 Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5% In terms of notes: Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules" - Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments) - "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM" - Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule." Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions. Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.
- Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle... $AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028. 400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line. On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2). TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online... For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line. Rather than one-and-done off of one year. This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.
- Be Barrons: - Wants to write about optical supply supply chains like $AAOI - Hiring DPT: who needs engineers to write about this something this simple? Let’s find underpaid political philosophy backgrounds. - proceeds to find a new hire from nonprofit communication consulting - first day on job: gets paid to model revenue ramp/margins projections, CW laser bottlenecks, internal capacity - New hire: “I don’t understand this sht”, “looks like a memestock” Barrons: “Memestock? looks like our next article, I don’t understand either”.
- Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI. There’s a pretty interesting study: Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either… - Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity) - Didn’t actively trade/overtrade (18.5% return from infrequent traders vs. 11.4%). Not any advice, but some of these anecdotes might be helpful to retail to read in general… Since I witnessed a lot capitulation off memory, photonics, or thematic volatility, just for retail not have positions on a sharp recovery. Having conviction also usually people in that “not overtrading” camp, since it helps to not overtrade in drops or see opportunities to cost average.
- I think we already got too many hints from $AAOI earnings about demand 20-40% imbalance for optical transivers with lasers as a bottleneck. And $POET stating big 3 are completely sold out of capacity next 2 years during their AGM. I don’t give earnings up or down predictions since it’s a coin flip most of the time. But I can say that a lot of pricing happens before earnings, unless there’s something very unexpected. Regardless I expect $LITE earnings to come out really strong, and I primary use it as a read through for your other laser players.
- I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
- Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.
- It's because $AAOI already has a massive 20-40% demand imbalance for their 800G/1.6T optical transceivers... They can't make enough to satisfy demand. That's a positive thing. But not being able to fulfill all demand, means there's market opportunities for smaller CPO laser players.
- I'm extremely bullish on $AAOI, it's one of my top holdings? But there's an unholy amount of things to unpack when AOI said they're not participating in first-gen CPO deployments because there's not enough capacity. 1. Independent CW DFB capacity, even less than markets thought. 2. Qualified CPO laser players, even less than markets thought. 3. I remember Rosenblatt thought $AAOI would be $AMD's first CPO customer, but might not be the case anymore... And since $LITE and $COHR are in camp $NVDA and sold out for next 2 years... Some other CPO players might be more valuable than others think.
- $LITE CEO said even as their 5 InP laser fabs come online, shipments would be 30%+ below customer demand. (and worse than the current memory shortage) $AAOI said something similiar with a 20-40% figure. My guess is that InP substrates and lasers both will be one of the most severe bottlenecks in 2027. Which is why I place a lot of value on any independent capacity that comes online whether it's $SIVE with Win or $AAOI.
- Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.
- I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”
- $AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections. Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their 1.6T+ programs as well. Especially if finalized in 2026. Since there's likely going to be price hikes, and more demand concentration over capacity from the select few Western players.
- $LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.
- Thesis is more for CPO scale up expecting complexity making make MSSCorp a monopoly-type chokepoint over inspection yields (they were claiming 90% market share target). Although they can be used for other segments. $FORM ramped a lot earlier, so maybe will revenue would start to appear in next earnings? Regardless, Asian names sold off extremely hard on CPO timeline delay report that I found to be incorrect with my channel checks at the $AMD conference. Don't think my views have changed, it's moreso waiting for 2027. Names with more confirmed scale-out switch volumes like Shunsin + laser names like $AAOI / $SIVE ramp a lot earlier. It's just timelines in my view and when markets want to price that in.
- I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.
- Global indiscriminate AI deleveraging right now, $AAOI is one of the high-beta names affected. I'd personally be surprised to say the least if they do $5.6B annualized revenue in 2027 (off of $471m/month projections), and remain a $6.3B company. $LITE annualized right now is ~$3.23B and they're a $48B company (but higher margins)
- @Thomus0x eh, Rosenblatt June 30 note identified AMD as the likely first $AAOI CPO customer. I wouldn't quite say they aren't remotely close. $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE just look like your top 3 right now in terms of CPO laser visibility per the recent Morgan Stanley note.
- Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.
- @CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event. https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
- Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?
- If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins). And they’re a $8B MC… Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins. And that’s a $1B MC. Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably. Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble. Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.
- @waynexonline $AAOI themselves gave a $471m / month estimate starting H2 2027. If 800g gets revised up sharply across the board, that number might get hiked.
- Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.
- Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
- I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.
- I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.
- I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).
- Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.
- TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.
- $AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And fits the OSINT research done with Ayar removing Macom from their website. So would agree with MS that $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR imo are the three leaders to focus on for lasers.
- Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.
- @UNICONTSLA On the $AAOI chart, we're able to see the "Sleeping King" indicator. You can see the crown form from the chopping patterns. But once the king wakes up from their nap... chart fundamentals expect a royal decree. https://t.co/YQTSgpPMnR
- Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.
- I have large concentration in $SIVE to $AAOI as well. Feels bad to suffer drawdowns from institutional photonics delay bear posts. Just for the same firm to include it in their ETFs at the bottom. NFA, but I’m especially confident about those two going forward despite the drop
- @ontrialperiod when global and US markets crash off misinformation and out of context quotes from $META. I probably want to clear that up? That thing said, $AAOI, $SIVE, and $CCXI do make up large concentration in my portfolio.
- Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.
- @ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days. They're also capable of doing the opposite. Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.
- Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks). Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up. Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS. Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back. But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out. Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.
- @DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18% On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop. So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr
- Where did I ever say that? Majority of my portfolio is concentrated in photonics with names like $SIVE and $AAOI. However, I’m allowed to talk about other exciting developments as well… Such as the first listed US humanoid player? I still think CPO/optics has the fastest TAM ramp out of any industry, just a bit early since I’m projecting revenue inflection really hits ~H2 2027. I’m personally down a lot past few weeks, but I’m convinced my thesis with laser chokepoints and others plays out.
- @gurukid5995 Markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. Memory from $SNDK to $MU was the market's main focus this month, while optical names like $AAOI corrected. I think we'll see a rotation back into photonics eventually, it's personally my highest concentration theme.
- Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source. This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp. - Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years. Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT) - $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals). - "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components." Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks. - "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year." Just production timelines H2. In terms of $POET volumes: - existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year - projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month - roughly 10x capacity expansion I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive. However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable. But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.
- @JClaydog Yeah sad to see. I'm personally very confident in $SIVE / $AAOI to revenue ramp with lasers in 2027 so I'm sleeping easy.
- FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.
- @chenbaiyang70 Looks like photonics theme selloff combined with macro drop with $AAOI. I’m personally confident from $AMD CW LTA reports and next year’s $471M/month projections. But of course people should make their own decisions, optical names tend to be more volatile.
- @hobielandrith I posted about $AAOI at $2.1B MC when someone called photonics "late". Then at $5.3B after earnings. Then $11B now. Unless their projections are wrong, doing $5.4B annual revenue ($471m/m) as a photonics company probably commands higher valuations. https://t.co/ORFGNdySSc
- oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
- Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.
- @Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.
- Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.
- @SMike1271547 I actually just added on $AAOI. Was talking about in general since everything dropped across the board, not specific names MB.
- That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect ASP/margins to go up across the board as well. Especially as the industry is bottlenecked and $AMD + CSPs are going around hunting for LTAs.
- I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.
- @TW_trades_ Let’s just say bears are regarded when the entire industry is laser/capacity constrained. Then $AAOI comes in with $471m/month projections with a lot of independent supply, which happens to be located in the US too.
- @degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.
- 非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！ 总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。 又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。 而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！ 不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。
- Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.
- @AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.
- I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.
- @cchronobreakk I don't need to open any new US stock position when all my ideas from memory to photonics like $AAOI are still playing out?
- Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.
- Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.
- New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.
- I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.
- Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.
- This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
- Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.
- Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.
- @WENXIN229986 that's literally for you to decide. If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B. optical names are very volatile.
- 这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。 目前今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。 我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！ 比如像 Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。 如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对… 所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。 我只是边走边分享而已！
- Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
- @Matthew93889052 $AAOI revenues are dominated by pluggable. These are concurrent architectures happening in parallel, not one or the other. But maybe past 2029, we’ll likely see some pluggable revenue be cannablized
- I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
- Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.
- Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)
- @0xHyperEVM Yeah $MRVL was $87 or so, $ARM was $130. $87 -> $288 for Marvell $134 -> $347 for Arm not too shabby for my names? I still think many have a toooon of room to go like $AAOI.
- Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
- If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized). I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name. So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.
- How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
- Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)
- $SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
- @awodias No, $AAOI is primarily pluggable exposure. But they have large exposure to CPO too, hence why I included the word photonics. Second favorite pure play CPO exposure would be FOCI for me.
- $SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
- $AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T and follow along Jensen.
- $AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.
- I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity. Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months. That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.
- @StormDirac Yeah, it's extremely disingenuous to conflate different architectures, customers timelines. And try to profit off false information with $SIVE. But with Citron and $AAOI, didnt turn out very well shorting optical companies in supercycles.
- Idk… I mean everyone called $AXTI a scam and now it’s up thousands of percent? Everyone called $AAOI management a scam and now that’s up 7x too. Institutions went out and criticized my $SOI long as well at $44 and now it’s $170… after they bought the float… Not sure if it’s short selling or trying to accumulate the float.
- I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing up in the epiwafer companies like landmark. All the modeling with AXT was with former contracts made, not after $SNDK style ASP hikes.
- Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone. I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI. And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq
- $SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.
- 确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底， 路向下游直到光模块成品制造商… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
- $RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?
- Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make. The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums. Just annoying there's a $600m dilution affecting near term prices.
- 华人社区最近的赞誉让我感到受宠若惊！ 我认为任何空头被打爆，都只是我单纯喜欢像 $AAOI 这样的股票而产生的无意间的副作用。 希望也能与更多的华人社区朋友互动（最近我在 X 上跟日本和韩国的网友互动得比较多）。
- $AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.
- @PronologieFR $AAOI literally went from $28 to $170. That was a brrr. But if you're talking in short term timeframes, there's a $600m dilution ongoing, which caps upside.
Ongoing takes on other optical names too
Beyond AAOI, his viewpoint library also covers: