AAOIApplied Optoelectronics
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
AAOI 整体偏多（看多 78 · 看空 5）
AAOI拥有800G/1.6T光模块端到端制造规模，满足超大规模客户强劲需求并受益于美国税收抵免，尽管近期存在稀释影响。
最近发言：2026/08/26 00:27 · 信心分 7/10
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历史观点（124 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.中文 · 翻译好吧，我们回到 $SMTC 的剧情：“瓶颈突突突地响”： 我最喜欢的一句话是：“目前，供货能力比定价更重要”。 在当前的光模块市场中。 - 已经确认的（booked）光模块订单，短期内预计不会出现侵蚀（erosion），这表明他们能顺利将成本上涨转嫁出去
- English · 原文Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.中文 · 翻译很多人都在好奇 $SIVE 两天后的财报。 我关注的点是： 1. 我希望光子学的共同开发/认证/合同方面能有更多明确信息。 → $AAOI 说有多个客户找他们要 CPO 激光器（但他们不得不拒绝了） → $MTSI 说有很多客户找他们要 CW 产能（但要
- English · 原文@adiradir734145 I think markets just need to let the masterchef $SIVE cook. From other earnings, everyone seems to be going out and approaching players like $MTSI or $AAOI for agreements. So, seems like there's a decently high chance Sivers gets some new qualifications or co-developments.中文 · 翻译@adiradir734145 我觉得市场就是得让 $SIVE 这个大厨好好发挥。 从其他财报来看，大家好像都在积极地去找像 $MTSI 或 $AAOI 这样的公司谈合作。 这么看来，Sivers 很有可能会拿到一些新的认证或合作开发项目。
- English · 原文Not exactly, I think $AAOI stated they avoided LTAs so they wouldn't have too much capacity committed to one customer and have to turn away others. If they signed LTAs with prepayments, then that in scenario there probably wouldn't need to be such sizeable ATMs. Decision was a bit surprising though considering how well $NVDA LTAs turned out well for $LITE / $COHR. I would assume though AOI gets more pricing leverage as time goes on due to current laser/transceiver shortages.中文 · 翻译不完全是，我觉得 $AAOI 表示他们之所以避免签订长期供货协议（LTA），是为了不把太多产能绑定给一个客户，导致不得不拒绝其他客户。 如果他们签订了附带预付款的 LTA，那在这种情况下，可能就不需要那么大规模的 ATM 增发了。 不过这个决定还是有点出乎意料，考虑到 $NVDA 的 LTA 对 $LITE / $COHR 来说效果都很好。 不过我猜，由于目前激光器/收发器短缺，AOI 随着时间推移会获得更多定价权。
- English · 原文Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more). What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET. And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI. However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet): Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility. In terms of timing: - AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks) - Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices. But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it. I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.中文 · 翻译最近很多人对那个 6 亿美元的 ATM 计划有各种各样的误解。我依然看好 $AAOI，而且我持有大量仓位（这也是我更关注的原因）。 我一直以来的立场是，我不喜欢过度使用 ATM / 稀释股权来融资。之前在 $IREN 和 $POET 的事情上我也说过。 对我自己持有的仓位，比如 AOI，我也会保持一致的看法。 不过，我仍然超配 AOI 的原因，而不是其他（比如 Poet）： 是因为 AOI 确实产能受限，而且需求可见度很高。 在时机方面： - AOI 本应该等到 1.6T 资格认证完成（预计未来几周） - 可以使用其他结构，比如高于市场价的可转债。 但他们却在股价从 220 美元跌到 130 美元的时候做了这件事，而且很可能每次他们想要动用这笔资金时，都会带来短期的结构性抛压。 我不需要支持每一个商业决策，才能继续做多。
- English · 原文@OscarCantInvest I still have $AAOI positions but I can dislike financing methods/timing/amounts.中文 · 翻译@OscarCantInvest 我手里还有 $AAOI 的仓位，但这不影响我吐槽它的融资方式/时机/金额。
- English · 原文It's getting much harder to support $AAOI when they keep dropping $500m or $600M ATMs left and right. At a certain point, the operating outlook could be positive. But the share structure/financing becomes increasingly shareholder unfriendly. Really, really, dislike ATMs and incessant capital raises, even if they're building up capacity.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 一直左右开弓地发行 5 亿或 6 亿美元的 ATM 增发，我真的越来越难支持它了。 在某种程度上，运营前景可能确实是积极的。 但股权结构/融资方式却越来越不利于股东。 我真的非常非常不喜欢 ATM 增发和没完没了的融资，即便它们是为了扩大产能。
- English · 原文No, EML, CW, microLEDs are all parallel tracks, with silicon phonetics + CW being the main commercial focus for 2027-2028, especially for CPO. If anything, having memory/optical links adds another material TAM increase across laser suppliers including CW DFBs. Which are already in short supply. So we'll likely see another memory style shortage when 2027-2028 comes about... Given your top 3 are already sold out for next 2 years, and independent laser capacity coming online like $AAOI are now being used internally for transceivers rather than being sold.中文 · 翻译不行，EML、CW 和 microLED 都是并行发展的技术路线，其中硅光子学和 CW（连续波）是 2027-2028 年主要的商业重点，尤其是在 CPO 方面。 如果说有什么影响的话，内存/光链路的加入，反而会进一步扩大包括 CW DFB 在内的激光器供应商的潜在市场规模。 而这些激光器现在就已经供不应求了。所以我们很可能会在 2027-2028 年再次看到类似内存芯片那样的短缺…… 考虑到你的前三大供应商未来两年订单都已爆满，而且像 $AAOI 这种独立激光器产能，现在也开始转为内部收发器使用，而不是对外出售了。
- English · 原文Very positive. My opinion is that the optical sector underperformance recently from $AAOI to $SIVE has been absurd. The demand visibility... is just way too stupidly high. AOI: “Even combined AOI, Coherent program altogether, is still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next 3 years” (2029) Elazr GM: "entire optical supply chain was facing major shortages." "The shortage will continue to the next few years" Sivers CEO said the same thing about InP laser demand imbalances expected for the next 3-5 years. Can go on and on about $LITE, $MTSI and other comments. We haven't even hit the inflection point with 1.6T, NPO, CPO scale out/up, and optics with memory (as seen with SK Hynix). Yet the industry is already bottlenecked by EML/CW and all your other upstream components from PDs/TIA/DSPs, transceivers, and soon FAU + others when CPO scales… I'm personally extremely comfortable watching this all play out, but just a little confused that markets don't know how to math a year or two ahead.中文 · 翻译非常看好。我的看法是，最近光模块板块，从 $AAOI 到 $SIVE，表现这么差简直离谱。 需求确定性... 简直高得吓人。 AOI 说：“即使把 AOI 和 Coherent 的项目加在一起，未来三年（到 2029 年）也还是很难满足客户需求。” (到 2029 年) Elazr 的总经理说：“整个光模块供应链都面临严重短缺。” “短缺将持续未来几年。” Sivers 的 CEO 也说了同样的话，关于 InP 激光器需求未来 3-5 年预计会供不应求。 关于 $LITE、$MTSI 和其他公司，可以说的评论还有很多。 我们甚至还没到 1.6T、NPO、CPO 的规模化放量，以及光模块与内存结合（比如 SK Hynix 做的那些）的拐点。 然而，这个行业就已经被 EML/CW，以及所有其他上游组件，从 PDs/TIA/DSPs 到收发器卡脖子了，随着 CPO 的规模化，FAU 和其他组件很快也会成为瓶颈… 我个人非常乐意看着这一切发生，但有点搞不懂市场为什么不会提前一两年算算账。
- English · 原文We got $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI all pointing to extreme demand imbalances with lasers/TIA/DSP/etc from earnings... And now Elazr GM at their investor conference stated: Optical supply is still far behind the market demand, the expected AI optical supply chain are likely to continue for years. - "the entire supply chain is out of stock" - "the supply is still far behind the market demand" - "the shortage will continue to the next few years" "Whether it is PCB, carrier board, laser chip, or even related packaging capacity, as long as the AI supply chain link, almost all are in short supply." When demand visibility extends for years with the supply chain bottlenecked: It's getting difficult not to see photonics echoing the memory supercycle entering 2027.中文 · 翻译我们看到 $LITE, $MTSI, $AAOI 的财报都指向了激光器/TIA/DSP 等相关产品存在极度不平衡的需求状况... 现在 Elazr 的总经理在他们的投资者大会上表示： 光模块供应仍远低于市场需求，预计人工智能光模块供应链的紧张状况可能会持续数年。 — “整个供应链都处于缺货状态” — “供应仍远低于市场需求” — “短缺将持续到未来几年” “无论是PCB、载板、激光芯片，甚至是相关的封装产能，只要是人工智能供应链的环节，几乎都处于短缺状态。” 当需求可见性延长数年，同时供应链又面临瓶颈时： 很难不让人觉得光子学产业正在重演存储器行业的超级周期，并可能持续到2027年。
- English · 原文My $AAOI TLDR notes at Rosenblatt summit: - Expected to get paid premiums for US production of 800g/1.6T (very positive for ASP/margins). - Several LTAs on the table, but doesn't want to sign to get capacity blocked by other customers (cough cough $NVDA). - Sold out at least through second half of next year and beyond. (High demand visibility like $LITE) - Has 300-400 mW lasers already. - Expects margins to be above 40%+ once CPO comes about (probably most material for rerating). I can't see how anyone can be bearish on this company...中文 · 翻译我在 Rosenblatt 峰会上的 $AAOI 简报要点： - 预计美国生产的 800g/1.6T 产品能获得溢价（这对平均销售价格/利润率非常有利）。 - 有好几个长期供货协议（LTA）摆在眼前，但不想签，怕产能被其他客户占用（咳咳，$NVDA）。 - 订单已排满，至少到明年下半年甚至更久。（需求可见度很高，像 $LITE 一样） - 已经有 300-400 毫瓦的激光器了。 - 预计一旦 CPO 普及，利润率能超过 40%+（这可能是公司价值重估最重要的因素）。 真搞不懂谁会看空这家公司...
- English · 原文@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.中文 · 翻译@abbysuyuyan 说实话，$AAOI 是我唯一希望它能跌回 $80 好让我能加仓的股票。 激光股的需求可见度简直不可思议，一直到 2027 年都是这样…… 对像 $NBIS 这样的新云股，或者像 $SNDK 这样的存储股，情况也一样。
- English · 原文The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.中文 · 翻译从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 的走势来看，AI 半导体板块现在是下跌的。那些高贝塔值的股票，看起来跌得最惨。 从我观察过的光学股走势来看，$LITE / $COHR 回升得最快，接着是像 $AAOI / $AXTI 这种体量更大但贝塔值仍然很高的股票（恢复了一半）。 然后像 $SIVE / $POET 这类股票，恢复时间最长。但我确实看到，当市场风险偏好提升，或者财报迫使市场重新估值的时候，这些股票的反弹会更猛。
- English · 原文As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.中文 · 翻译至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。 我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。 也许其他主题也可以照做。
- English · 原文I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.中文 · 翻译我感觉AI投资比大家想象的要简单。 因为$NVDA和黄仁勋（Jensen）简直就是把未来会发生什么明明白白地告诉所有人。 但不知怎么的。几乎每一次。每一次！市场都会不屑一顾，直到事情真正发生？ 想象一下2025年的英伟达：收购了EML和激光产能。 市场不屑一顾：“光子学是个泡沫，就像量子技术一样！____公司管理层有问题，就是个骗局！” 一年后：$LITE 涨了678%，$AAOI 涨了475.12%，$COHR 涨了260.7%，$AXTI 涨了3,843.9%。 _ 2026年的英伟达： 通过长期供货协议（LTAs）收购了连续波（CW）/EML产能。转向800V架构。非常明确地提到了CPO（共封装光学）的转变。明确指出实体AI是下一个主题。 现在的市场：“CW公司都是meme股！800V、CPO短期内不会实现，人形机器人不赚钱！” 是啊……我们拭目以待2027年发生什么吧。 我想我还是把钱押在黄仁勋/英伟达这个领先指标上。
- English · 原文@LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI blended gross margins goes up when they sell ELSFP and 1.6T optical transceivers.中文 · 翻译@LcubedInvest @logeonli16 $AAOI 卖 ELSFP 和 1.6T 光模块的时候，综合毛利率就上去了。
- English · 原文It’s fully up to you. But I’m expecting $AAOI to get close or maybe a 20% chance to surpass $LITE in revenue early H1 2028 if AOI fully executes on capacity projections. Which is pretty interesting when you look at the $12B vs ~$80B valuations (lot of it is better margins for Lumentum)中文 · 翻译这完全取决于你自己。但我预计，如果 AOI 能完全实现其产能预测，那么 $AAOI 的营收在 2028 年上半年初将接近，甚至可能有 20% 的机会超越 $LITE。 如果你看看它们 120 亿美元对比大约 800 亿美元的市值（其中很大一部分是因为 Lumentum 的利润率更高），这就很有意思了。
- English · 原文You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.中文 · 翻译你可以看看这些股票今年以来的表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU，我都是今年年初或去年就建仓的。 然后告诉我你是不是还那么想。
- English · 原文I'm not sure if it's just me, but I'm just seeing enormous CW demand imbalance right now (thank you $NVDA). And this is before scale up and other 1.6T ramps even arrive. Then you have $AAOI and $SIVE appear with scarce, independent CW laser or transceiver capacity... That usually leads forces your other major players like $AMD and hyperscalers to look at them. $MTSI said their capacity only starts to come online H2 2027 and customers are already approaching them with urgency... CW lasers is one of my favorite bottlenecks right now.中文 · 翻译不知道是不是我一个人的感觉，但我现在看到的 CW（连续波）需求失衡太大了（多亏了 $NVDA）。 而且这还没算上规模扩大和其他 1.6T 产能爬坡还没到来呢。然后你看 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 出现了，它们有稀缺的、独立的 CW 激光器或收发器产能…… 这通常会迫使其他主要玩家，比如 $AMD 和超大规模数据中心提供商，去关注它们。$MTSI 说他们的产能要到 2027 年下半年才开始上线，但客户已经很急地来找他们了…… CW 激光器是我现在最喜欢的一个瓶颈。
- English · 原文If I had to categorize it: $SIVE = Waiting for Revenue Conversion Tons of hyperscaler suppliers + demand visibility for the CW DFB. How do markets want to price in or assign a premium on the waiting game for 1.6T H1 2027 to CPO scale up for H2 2027? $AAOI = Waiting for Capacity Execution Extreme demand visibility for transceivers. Can they ramp up capacity to meet their $471m/month projections? $POET = Waiting for Customers Too much cash relative to MC + heavily funded supply chain capacity setup, little demand visbility.中文 · 翻译如果非要分类的话： $SIVE = 等待营收转化 大量超大规模数据中心供应商 + 对CW DFB的需求可见性高。市场会如何给这段等待期定价，或者赋予多少溢价呢？等着看2027年上半年1.6T产品到2027年下半年CPO（共同封装光学）规模化生产的进展。 $AAOI = 等待产能执行 收发器需求可见度极高。他们能把产能提升上去，达到他们每月4.71亿美元的预测吗？ $POET = 等待客户 相对于市值（MC）来说现金太多 + 供应链产能布局资金充足，需求可见性低。
- English · 原文Okay here's my take on $POET, since apparently people are celebrating on the subreddit that I took small positions. - I have 0 idea. ZERO. How they convinced shareholders to allow them dilute SO MUCH to the point: They have an absurd ~$830m cash on hand now. And my guess is that they're close to done, since I would be in disbelief if they needed more. So now... they have ~$830m to grow their business like M&A, and EV actually dropped really low recently (eg. $1.25B MC vs. $830m cash on hand), that I thought it was compelling to take a risk. - Annualized production capacity target is 12M optical engines/year for 2027, which is pretty absurd ramp. Need to do more research into ASP for Poet's products, but maybe $125-$200? So at ~$150 ASP, $1.8B revenue ceiling. But they're like inverse AAOI right now: no visible demand to fill all that capacity. Aside from Lumilens, which is now a highly valued hyperscaler supplier (probably Amazon or Microsoft), with billions in customer agreements. The interesting thing is if Poet signed prepayment EML agreements with players like Mitsubishi, or CW agreements with Sivers behind the scenes with that balance sheet. And given the current bottleneck, players might use Poet as a workaround for supply procurement. But basically, you have a super cash-rich company with a ton of capacity coming online. And they're not really disappearing anytime soon with their financials. I don't quite think it's as technically defensible compared to upstream laser chokepoints with something like $SIVE around the same valuation in terms of technical moat for CW lasers vs. OE packaging side. As you've seen recently with Celestial and Poet. But maybe... there's a chance some hyperscaler or downstream company announces a volume agreement sometime in the future. and $POET takes off. And they do have the supply chain setup for ramp with that. That's the risk I ended up taking, but it's not exactly a clear as day long for me like $AAOI.中文 · 翻译好的，这是我对 $POET 的看法，因为显然大家在 Reddit 论坛上庆祝我建了小仓位。 - 我完全不明白。真的完全不明白。他们是怎么说服股东稀释这么多股份，稀释到： 现在他们手头有大概 8.3 亿美元现金，简直离谱。 我猜他们应该差不多够了，要是还需要更多，我简直不敢相信。 所以现在… 他们有大约 8.3 亿美元可以用来发展业务，比如并购，而且最近企业价值 (EV) 跌得很低（比如 12.5 亿美元的市值，手头却有 8.3 亿美元现金），我觉得冒这个险是值得的。 - 他们的目标是到 2027 年实现每年 1200 万颗光引擎的年化产能，这个增产速度相当离谱。 我还需要研究一下 Poet 产品的平均销售价格 (ASP)，但大概是 125 到 200 美元？所以如果按 150 美元的 ASP 算，营收上限就是 18 亿美元。 但他们现在就像是反向的 $AAOI：没有明显的市场需求来填满所有产能。除了 Lumilens 之外，Lumilens 现在是备受瞩目的超
- English · 原文My main takeaway was that your merchant CW laser suppliers seem to be EXTREMELY IMPORTANT now. But TLDR of $COHR earnings: "given the demand that we see in our DC business with transceivers, I don’t see any time in the near future where we would be selling indium phosphide lasers externally" - Ton more value placed on companies that sell InP lasers externally if $AAOI can't doesn't enough capacity for first gen-CPO deployments, $COHR not selling externally... I guess that's why $MTSI said a ton of customers are approaching them with urgency for InP CW DFB lasers (and they dont even have meaningful capacity coming online until EOY 2027) $AAOI -> Internal $COHR -> Internal Buyers -> fewer places to look for capacity. "Our backlog now extends out, fiscal 2027 is basically completely booked out. We are booked really through the end of calendar 2027" [ Massive massive demand visibility] - Coherent also mentioned LTAs spanning end of decade. So this kinda reinforces what $POET CEO said at their AGM that the "big 3" are fully sold out next 2 years. "we’re not constrained in the assembly and test capacity right now. We’re really just constrained by the ramp of the indium phosphide production" - Just for the bottleneck bros in terms of assembly/test not a bottleneck. "absolutely no push-out of CPO demand. In fact, it has been the opposite. We have seen demand increase and request from customers’ demand getting pulled in" "we continue to expect revenue from CPO for scale-up applications to start to flow in the second half of calendar 2027" - Big read through on other CPO players for scale up if $LITE, $COHR reaffirm revenue from CPO scale up coming h2027. - "quarterly revenue exceeding $3 billion by the end of fiscal 2027" - $COHR revenue go brrr So for regular numbers it's: - $2.046B revenue (+13.3% Q/Q, +33.8% Y/Y), main revenue ramp looks to be happening entering Q4 into 2027 - Non-GAAP gross margins: 40.2% Next quarter guide is: - Revenue: $2.2–$2.4B revenue - Non-GAAP gross margins: 39.5-41.5% Basically: $1.69B -> $1.81B -> $2.05B -> ~$2.30B -> $3.0B (end of FY 2027) ~39% -> 39.6% -> 40.2% -> ~40.5% (gross margins) For operating margins: 18.0% -> 19.5% -> 19.9% -> 20.3% -> 21.8% Little less impressed compared to $LITE margin growth in terms of profitability, but revenue scale for $COHR growing rapidly.中文 · 翻译我主要想说的是，你那些商家 CW 激光供应商现在看来是**极其重要**了。 但简单说一下 $COHR 财报重点： “考虑到我们数据中心业务对光模块的需求，我预计在不远的将来我们不会对外销售磷化铟激光器。” - 如果 $AAOI 没有足够的产能用于第一代 CPO 部署，$COHR 又不向外销售，那那些对外销售 InP 激光器的公司价值就更大了。 我想这就是为什么 $MTSI 说一大堆客户正急着找他们要 InP CW DFB 激光器（而且他们直到 2027 年底都不会有显著产能上线）。 $AAOI → 内部使用 $COHR → 内部使用 买家 → 能找的产能就更少了。 “我们的积压订单现在已经排到 2027 财年，基本上已经完全订满了。我们差不多已经排到 2027 年底了。” [巨大的需求可见性] - Coherent 也提到了长期供货协议（LTA）会持续到本世纪末。所以这有点印证了 $POET 首席执行官在股东大会上说的，“三巨头”未来两年产能全卖光了。 “我们目前在组装和测试产能方面没有限制。我们真正受限的是磷化铟生产的爬坡。” - 这是给那些“瓶颈论”兄弟们说的，组装/测试不是瓶颈。 “CPO 需求绝对没有推迟。实际上，情况正好相反。我们看到需求增加了，客户甚至要求提前交付。” “我们继续预计，用于规模化应用的 CPO 收入将在 2027 年下半年开始流入。” - 如果 $LITE、$COHR 都重申 CPO 规模化应用的收入会在 2027 年下半年到来，这对其他 CPO 玩家来说是一个重要的信号。 - “到 2027 财年末，季度营收将超过 30 亿美元。” - $COHR 营收突飞猛进。 所以常规数据如下： - 营收 20.46 亿美元（环比增长 13.3%，同比增长 33.8%），主要营收增长看来会发生在进入第四季度到 2027 年。 - 非 GAAP 毛利率：40.2%。 下一季度指引是： - 营收：22-24 亿美元。 - 非 GAAP 毛利率：39.5-41.5%。 基本上就是： 16.9 亿美元 → 18.1 亿美元 → 20.5 亿美元 → 约 23.0 亿美元 → 30 亿美元（2027 财年末） 约 39% → 39.6% → 40.2% → 约 40.5%（毛利率） 营业利润率方面： 18.0% → 19.5% → 19.9% → 20.3% → 21.8% 与 $LITE 在盈利能力上的利润增长相比，我没那么印象深刻，但 $COHR 的营收规模正在迅速增长。
- English · 原文No, because $AAOI said that their scarce capacity is dedicated internally toward making their own 800G/1.6T optical transceivers. Which they said would be a 20-40% demand imbalance even if all their capacity come online. It's not a bad thing to have too much demand, that you can't expand to new product lines.中文 · 翻译不，因为 $AAOI 说他们稀缺的产能都内部专门用于生产他们自己的 800G/1.6T 光模块。 他们说，即使他们所有产能都上线，这也会导致 20-40% 的供需不平衡。 需求太多以至于无法拓展新的产品线，这也不是什么坏事。
- English · 原文I said $LITE went from $3b to $60B+ over a 2-3 year timeframe, especially due from Cloud Light acquisition in late 2023, that multiplied TAM by 5x+. Since they started off in the EML laser / optical component chokepoint originally before M&A. $SIVE has the potential to do the same starting off in the CW laser chokepoint. But it does require something like a successful M&A down pluggables or optical engines/ELS. To capture more revenue off things like completed transceivers $AAOI, if they want to get to a similar scale. And my take was NASDAQ listing is necessary to unlock more funding to do so.中文 · 翻译我说的，$LITE 在两三年内从 30 亿美元涨到 600 亿美元以上，主要归功于 2023 年底对 Cloud Light 的收购，这让它的总可寻址市场 (TAM) 扩大了 5 倍以上。 因为他们在并购前，最初是从 EML 激光器/光学元件这个瓶颈环节起家的。 $SIVE 也有潜力做同样的事情，它也是从连续波 (CW) 激光器这个瓶颈环节起步的。 但它确实需要一次成功的并购，比如并购下游的可插拔模块、光引擎/ELS。 这样才能从像 $AAOI 那样的完整收发器中获取更多营收，如果他们想达到类似的规模。而我的看法是，纳斯达克上市是必要的，才能解锁更多资金来实现这一点。
- English · 原文@MaxChua16 The Serenity Awarness Fund would have bought 1/6th of $SIVE and $AAOI中文 · 翻译@MaxChua16 平静觉醒基金本来会买入 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 各六分之一的仓位。
- English · 原文$AAOI: "We just can’t make enough of them [CPO lasers] to be involved in their current first-generation [CPO] deployments because there’s just not enough capacity. We have to prioritize our ability to make lasers for our own transceivers first" This is just for early CPO related deployment read through.中文 · 翻译$AAOI：“我们根本无法生产足够多 [CPO 激光器] 来参与他们当前的第一代 [CPO] 部署，因为产能根本不足。 我们必须优先为自己的收发器生产激光器。” 这只是针对早期 CPO 相关部署的解读。
- English · 原文$LITE earnings are out, very strong earnings: Revenue: $1.01B, +24.5% Q/Q, +109.3% Y/Y growth vs. ~$984.6M Adj. EPS: $3.23 vs. ~$2.95 Gross Margin (non-gaap): 50.4% / Operating margin (non-gaap) 36.6% Q1 FY2027 guidance is probably more important: Revenue: $1.225–1.275B vs. ~$1.16B Adj. EPS: $4.05–4.35 vs. ~$3.63 Operating margin (non-gaap) of 39.5% - 40.5% In terms of notes: Sees: "Increasing demand for ultra-high-power CPO lasers, an initial order for ELS modules" - Great read through on other CPO players like $SIVEF, $COHR, and others. (maybe not AAOI since they're missing out on first-gen deployments) - "Breath of NPO engagements are the first signs that optics are starting to penetrate in-rack connectivity, significantly upping our optical TAM" - Revenue projections "reaching our target model more than a quarter ahead of schedule." Extremely strong earnings as expected, you have revenue going from: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B while operating margin keeps increasing... Just my first impressions. Most important thing is the earnings call coming up soon.中文 · 翻译$LITE 财报出来了，业绩非常强劲： 营收：10.1 亿美元，环比增长 24.5%，同比增长 109.3% vs. 约 9.846 亿美元 调整后每股收益：3.23 美元 vs. 约 2.95 美元 毛利率（非 GAAP）：50.4% / 营业利润率（非 GAAP）36.6% 2027 财年第一季度指引可能更重要： 营收：12.25 亿–12.75 亿美元 vs. 约 11.6 亿美元 调整后每股收益：4.05–4.35 美元 vs. 约 3.63 美元 营业利润率（非 GAAP）：39.5% - 40.5% 重点方面： 看到：“对超高功率 CPO 激光器的需求不断增加，ELS 模块获得了初步订单” - 这对 $SIVEF、$COHR 等其他 CPO 玩家来说是个很好的参考。（AAOI 可能除外，因为他们错过了第一代部署） - “NPO 合作的广度表明，光学技术正开始渗透到机架内连接领域，这显著提升了我们光学业务的潜在市场规模。” - 营收预测“比原计划提前一个多季度达到了我们的目标模型。” 业绩如预期般非常强劲，营收从： 8.08 亿美元 → 10.
- English · 原文Just putting it out there for people that think AAOI is a one year cycle... $AAOI projects their ELSFP capacity for CPO to be 400K/units a month in 2028. 400k * ~$400 ELS ASP (GS assumptions) = + another ~$1.92B 2028 annualized revenue capacity added as a new distinct (>50% gross margin) product line. On top of their existing 2027 projections (eg. ~$5.6B annualized transceiver revenue off $471m/month entering H2). TAM for 1.6T also goes brrr so I'd expect their end of H2 2027 projections to go up as more capacity comes online... For certain optical names, it's one cycle (eg. 1.6T, CPO scale out/up, NPO etc. ), stacked on top of one another... stacked on top of another... with TAM + margins stacking like minions after Anivia uses W in line. Rather than one-and-done off of one year. This is a stark contrast to some other sectors where growth is likely to decelerate after maybe 1 year of triple digit Y/Y revenue growth.中文 · 翻译咱们就说说那些觉得 $AAOI 只有一年周期的人… $AAOI 预计他们 CPO ELSFP 的产能，到 2028 年能达到每月 40 万件。 40 万件 * 大约 $400 的 ELS 平均售价（高盛假设），这会额外增加大约 19.2 亿美元的 2028 年年度营收产能，作为一个新的独立产品线（毛利率 >50%）。 这还是在他们现有 2027 年预测的基础上（比如，下半年开始时，每月 4.71 亿美元的收发器营收，年化后大约 56 亿美元）。 1.6T 的市场总规模（TAM）也蹭蹭地涨，所以我预计他们 2027 年下半年末的预测还会上调，随着更多产能上线… 对于某些光模块公司来说，这是一个又一个周期（
- English · 原文Be Barrons: - Wants to write about optical supply supply chains like $AAOI - Hiring DPT: who needs engineers to write about this something this simple? Let’s find underpaid political philosophy backgrounds. - proceeds to find a new hire from nonprofit communication consulting - first day on job: gets paid to model revenue ramp/margins projections, CW laser bottlenecks, internal capacity - New hire: “I don’t understand this sht”, “looks like a memestock” Barrons: “Memestock? looks like our next article, I don’t understand either”.中文 · 翻译想写一篇关于像 $AAOI 这样的光模块供应链的报道 招聘部门：写这么简单的东西哪需要工程师？我们去找那些学政治哲学又没拿多少薪水的人吧。 然后就从一家非营利机构的沟通咨询部门找到了个新人。 新人上班第一天：拿钱干活，模型预测收入增长/利润率，CW 激光器的瓶颈，还有内部产能。 新人：“这特么都是啥？”，“看起来像个Meme股啊。” 《巴伦周刊》：“Meme股？这好像就是我们下一篇文章的标题了，我也不懂。”
- English · 原文Now that markets are hosting a laser party again from $SIVE, OE Solutions, $LITE, Coherent, to $AAOI. There’s a pretty interesting study: Both from Fidelity and a UC Berkeley research paper, that the best investors are the ones who either… - Anecdotally forgot about their account (Fidelity) - Didn’t actively trade/overtrade (18.5% return from infrequent traders vs. 11.4%). Not any advice, but some of these anecdotes might be helpful to retail to read in general… Since I witnessed a lot capitulation off memory, photonics, or thematic volatility, just for retail not have positions on a sharp recovery. Having conviction also usually people in that “not overtrading” camp, since it helps to not overtrade in drops or see opportunities to cost average.中文 · 翻译现在市场又因为 $SIVE、OE Solutions、$LITE、Coherent 和 $AAOI 搞起了激光派对。 有一个很有趣的研究： 无论是富达（Fidelity）还是加州大学伯克利分校的一份研究论文都指出，最好的投资者是那些要么…… - 传闻中忘了自己账户的人（富达的研究） - 没有频繁交易/过度交易的人（不常交易的投资者回报率是 18.5%，而其他人的回报率是 11.4%）。 这并非任何投资建议，但这些轶事对于散户来说，总体上可能有些启发…… 因为我亲眼目睹了太多因为记忆、光子学或主题波动造成的散户割肉，结果在市场急剧反弹时手里却没仓位。 有信念的人通常也属于“不过度交易”那拨，因为这有助于他们在下跌时不乱卖，还能看到逢低买入的机会。
- English · 原文I think we already got too many hints from $AAOI earnings about demand 20-40% imbalance for optical transivers with lasers as a bottleneck. And $POET stating big 3 are completely sold out of capacity next 2 years during their AGM. I don’t give earnings up or down predictions since it’s a coin flip most of the time. But I can say that a lot of pricing happens before earnings, unless there’s something very unexpected. Regardless I expect $LITE earnings to come out really strong, and I primary use it as a read through for your other laser players.中文 · 翻译我觉得我们已经从 $AAOI 的财报里得到很多暗示了，光模块的需求有 20-40% 的不平衡，而激光器是瓶颈。 还有 $POET 在他们的股东大会上说，三大巨头未来两年的产能都已完全售罄。 我不会去预测财报是好是坏，因为大部分时候这都像抛硬币一样。但我可以肯定地说，很多价格波动都在财报前就发生了，除非出现非常意想不到的情况。 无论如何，我预计 $LITE 的财报会非常强劲，我主要把它当作一个风向标，来解读其他激光器厂商的表现。
- English · 原文I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.中文 · 翻译我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能不能拿到更多晶圆厂产能分配的，毕竟现在连续波 DFB 短缺问题挺普遍的。 因为我很有信心，一旦通过认证并开始大规模量产，他们的产品肯定会卖脱销。 但除此之外 > 从像 $MTSI / $AAOI 这样的其他公司财报中，能再次确认供需不平衡会很有帮助。 > 上次财报中提到的与可插拔模块领域玩家的新开发/认证进展，这可能是最重要的。 > 与 $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS 的合作进展或其他机会，也许能有一些初步采购订单就更好了。 > 纳斯达克上市进展再次强调（我们已经知道计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍然把这个放在优先位置，因为它能为他们的并购提供更多资金，希望能够深化到可插拔技术栈。 我认为营收拐点大约会在 2027 年上半年出现，所以目前的营收/利润数据不太重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发布一份声明，比如“我们生产的任何东西都预计能在 2028 年售罄”之类的话，那可就太牛了。
- English · 原文Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 财报的一些懒人包要点： - 他们也提到了 DSP 和 TIA 的瓶颈，这对像 $MXL、还有 $SMTC 和 $MTSI 这样的公司来说，是一个积极的行业信号。 - 至于营收增长，他们预计第四季度营收会超过 5 亿美元，这增长简直太离谱了。 供参考： 第二季度：$1.919 亿美元 第三季度：大约 $2.55 亿 - $2.9 亿美元 第四季度：$5 亿多美元 到 2027 年年中：季度营收运行率大约 $14.1 亿美元 这些光通信公司的营收爬坡速度总是让我印象深刻。
- English · 原文It's because $AAOI already has a massive 20-40% demand imbalance for their 800G/1.6T optical transceivers... They can't make enough to satisfy demand. That's a positive thing. But not being able to fulfill all demand, means there's market opportunities for smaller CPO laser players.中文 · 翻译是因为 $AAOI 的 800G/1.6T 光模块需求缺口已经高达 20-40% 了... 他们根本生产不过来，满足不了需求。这其实是个好事。 但既然他们满足不了所有需求，就意味着对于那些做 CPO 激光器的小玩家来说，有市场机会了。
- English · 原文I'm extremely bullish on $AAOI, it's one of my top holdings? But there's an unholy amount of things to unpack when AOI said they're not participating in first-gen CPO deployments because there's not enough capacity. 1. Independent CW DFB capacity, even less than markets thought. 2. Qualified CPO laser players, even less than markets thought. 3. I remember Rosenblatt thought $AAOI would be $AMD's first CPO customer, but might not be the case anymore... And since $LITE and $COHR are in camp $NVDA and sold out for next 2 years... Some other CPO players might be more valuable than others think.中文 · 翻译我对 $AAOI 非常看好，这是我持仓里的大头？ 但当 AOI 说他们不会参与第一代 CPO 部署，因为产能不足时，里面有惊人多的东西要细说。 1. 独立的连续波 DFB 产能，比市场预期的还要少。 2. 合格的 CPO 激光供应商，比市场预期的还要少。 3. 我记得 Rosenblatt 认为 $AAOI 会是 $AMD 的第一个 CPO 客户，但现在可能不再是这样了... 而且因为 $LITE 和 $COHR 都在 $NVDA 阵营，未来两年订单都满了... 其他一些 CPO 玩家可能比大家想象的更有价值。
- English · 原文$LITE CEO said even as their 5 InP laser fabs come online, shipments would be 30%+ below customer demand. (and worse than the current memory shortage) $AAOI said something similiar with a 20-40% figure. My guess is that InP substrates and lasers both will be one of the most severe bottlenecks in 2027. Which is why I place a lot of value on any independent capacity that comes online whether it's $SIVE with Win or $AAOI.中文 · 翻译$LITE 的 CEO 说，即使他们的 5 个 InP 激光芯片厂投产，出货量仍将比客户需求低 30% 以上。（这比目前的内存短缺还要严重） $AAOI 也说了类似的话，提到的数字是 20-40%。 我猜 InP 衬底和激光器都将是 2027 年最严重的瓶颈之一。 这就是为什么我非常看重任何上线的新增独立产能，无论是 $SIVE 与 Win 的合作，还是 $AAOI 自己。
- English · 原文Just some TLDR notes on $AAOI earnings: - Expects full qualification of 1.6T products by their hyperscaler customer within next couple of weeks (helpful revenue ramp #2, timelines) - Continues to believe that AOI will have the largest AI DC transceiver production capacity in the US (reiterating ambitions during a time when their competitors might get banned) - Expects facilities toward InP capacity to come online in early 2027 (timeline FYI in terms of further ramp) - Total capacity is approaching 200,000/u per month, EOY 650,000/u per month of 800g/1.6t. EOY 2027, 930,000/u (this is the ramp i want to see) - "increase our manufacturing capacity for our external light source or ELSFP. That's for co-packaged optics or CPO". we anticipate ramping production later this year and into 2027, ultimately culminating in about 400,000 pieces per month in 2028 (need some time to model this into revenue) - "As we have mentioned before, we've been manufacturing lasers internally for many years. This has allowed us to avoid some of the shortages that have affected others in the industry" (vertical integration bull case during CW/EML laser shortages) - We believe that in the future, CPO will continue to drive increased demand for high-power lasers (thesis validation on CPO sector) - "to our long-term objective of returning non-GAAP gross margins to around 40%" - "We ended the second quarter with $508.8 million in total cash equivalents" I need to double check if the ATM finished or not - "our ability to deliver revenue in general, and specifically when it comes to 800G products, is limited by our production capacity right now" "If we could produce more, we could ship more right now" Demand > Supply validation. - "Most of the increased capacity will be in U.S. Even so, let me say that, like I keep emphasizing, that is not good enough for the customer demand. The customer demand is 20%-40% higher." Unholy photonics demand validation across the whole sector, read through for $LITE, $SIVE / $JBL, and others is amazing. - "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AI, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" More optical sector demand validation. - CPO Timelines: "If you're talking about really high volume manufacturer [for CPO market], I would say more like the late Q3 next year" and "We have been working very close with at least five customer" If you care about current earnings (which I'm not really looking at closely) Revenue: $191M vs. $190m EPS: $.06 vs. $.02 TLDR: Extraordinary demand across the laser + optical sector read through. Kinda supporting Lumentum CEO statement that laser shortage is worse than memory shortages. 2027 capacity ramp on track. To map inflection period with timelines, would be around early next year, as stated in their previous earnings call. AAOI has the customers now. Limitation is making enough lasers and transceivers.中文 · 翻译只是关于 $AAOI 财报的一些太长不看笔记： - 预计在未来几周内，其超大规模客户将完成 1.6T 产品的全面认证 （有助于营收增长 #2，时间线） - 仍然相信 AOI 将拥有美国最大的 AI 数据中心光模块生产能力 （在竞争对手可能被禁之际，重申雄心） - 预计 InP 产能设施将于 2027 年初投产 （关于进一步增长的时间线 FYI） - 总产能接近每月 20 万片/单位，到年底 800G/1.6T 产能将达到每月 65 万片/单位。到 2027 年底，将达到 93 万片/单位 （这就是我希望看到的增长） - “增加我们外部光源或 ELSFP 的制造能力。这是为了共同封装光学（CPO）。”我们预计将在今年晚些时候和 2027 年逐步提高产量，最终在 2028 年达到每月约 40 万片 （需要一些时间把这个模型化为营收） - “正如我们之前提到的，我们内部生产激光器已经很多年了。这使我们能够避免行业中其他人所面临的一些短缺” （在 CW/EML 激光器短缺期间的垂直整合看涨案例） - 我们相信，未来 CPO 将继续推动对高功率激光器需求的增长 （CPO 行业的论点得到验证） - “实现我们非 GAAP 毛利率回到 40% 左右的长期目标” - “第二季度末，我们总现金等价物为 5.088 亿美元” 我需要再次核实 ATM 是否已完成。 - “我们交付营收的能力，特别是 800G 产品的能力，目前受到我们生产能力的限制。”“如果我们能生产更多，我们现在就能出货更多” 需求 > 供应得到验证。 - “大部分增加的产能将在美国。即便如此，我还是要说，就像我一直强调的，这对客户需求来说还不够。客户需求比这高出 20%-40%。” 整个光子学领域的巨大需求得到验证，对 $LITE、$SIVE / $JBL 等公司的影响令人惊叹。 - “未来两三年内不会，特别是需求如此之大。好吗？即使把 AI、$LITE、$COHR、$AVGO 全部加起来，未来几年也很难满足客户需求” 更多光学领域需求得到验证。 - CPO 时间线：“如果你说的是（CPO 市场）真正的高产量制造商，我会说是明年第三季度末左右”，并且“我们一直在与至少五家客户密切合作” 如果你关心目前的财报（我并没有密切关注） 营收：1.91 亿美元 vs. 1.90 亿美元 每股收益：0.06 美元 vs. 0.02 美元 太长不看：整个激光 + 光学领域需求异常旺盛。某种程度上支持了 Lumentum CEO 关于激光器短缺比内存短缺更严重的说法。 2027 年产能增长按计划进行。与时间线匹配的拐点期大约在明年年初，正如他们上次财报电话会议中提到的。 $AAOI 现在有客户了。限制在于生产足够的激光器和光模块。
- English · 原文I remain convinced nobody knows how to pronounce or talk about $AAOI in real life. It’s one letter too long to say $TSM or $AMD. And nobody ever says to a friend“Wow, I like applied optoelectronics!”中文 · 翻译我还是觉得没人知道现实生活中怎么发音或者讨论 $AAOI。 它比 $TSM 或 $AMD 多一个字母，说起来太长了。 而且没人会跟朋友说“哇，我喜欢应用光电！”
- English · 原文$AAOI is an end of H1 2027 volume ramp player for me, since around then is when they hit inflection point of $471m/month revenue projections. Recent drafted ban on new optical transceivers coming from Innolight and others, increase weight on players like AAOI, $SIVE / $JBL, $LITE, $COHR for their 1.6T+ programs as well. Especially if finalized in 2026. Since there's likely going to be price hikes, and more demand concentration over capacity from the select few Western players.中文 · 翻译对我来说，$AAOI 是一个到 2027 年上半年末能实现产量大爆发的标的，因为大概在那时候，他们会达到每月 4.71 亿美元营收预期的拐点。 最近拟议的对来自 Innolight 等公司的新型光模块的禁令，也增加了 $AAOI、$SIVE / $JBL、$LITE、$COHR 这些公司在其 1.6T+ 项目上的权重。尤其是在 2026 年确定下来的话。 因为很可能会有价格上涨，而且需求会更加集中到少数几家西方供应商，超过他们的产能。
- English · 原文$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible with EMLs today but is already expanding to CW, especially as CPO ramps. I've always been a fan of the laser chokepoint + bottleneck from $AAOI, $SIVE, $LITE, and $COHR. And glad this thesis is starting to see validation.中文 · 翻译$LITE 的 CEO Michael Hurlston 在 RAISE 峰会上发出警告，说用于 AI 数据中心的 InP 激光器存在供货缺口： 面临的供应链危机比内存还要严重。 Lumentum 虽然有 5 座 InP 晶圆厂，但出货量会比客户需求低 30% 以上。 这一点在 EML 激光器上今天尤其明显，但已经开始蔓延到 CW 激光器，尤其是 CPO 逐渐普及后。 我一直都看好激光器是瓶颈和关键环节，关注 $AAOI、$SIVE、$LITE 和 $COHR。很高兴这个论点开始得到验证了。
- English · 原文Thesis is more for CPO scale up expecting complexity making make MSSCorp a monopoly-type chokepoint over inspection yields (they were claiming 90% market share target). Although they can be used for other segments. $FORM ramped a lot earlier, so maybe will revenue would start to appear in next earnings? Regardless, Asian names sold off extremely hard on CPO timeline delay report that I found to be incorrect with my channel checks at the $AMD conference. Don't think my views have changed, it's moreso waiting for 2027. Names with more confirmed scale-out switch volumes like Shunsin + laser names like $AAOI / $SIVE ramp a lot earlier. It's just timelines in my view and when markets want to price that in.中文 · 翻译这个投资论点更多是针对 CPO（Co-packaged Optics，共封装光学）规模化生产，预计会因为复杂度增加，让 MSSCorp 在检测良率方面成为一种垄断性质的关键瓶颈（他们曾声称目标市场份额是 90%）。当然，他们的技术也可以用于其他细分领域。 $FORM 早就开始大规模量产了，所以营收也许会在下个财报中开始显现？ 不管怎样，亚洲相关股票因为 CPO 时间线延迟的报道遭遇了非常大的抛售，但我在 $AMD 大会上的渠道调查发现这些报道并不准确。 我不认为我的观点有所改变，更多的是在等待 2027 年。 那些已确认有更大规模出货的交换机厂商，比如 Shunsin，以及激光相关公司比如 $AAOI / $SIVE，会更早地实现产量爬坡。在我看来，这仅仅是时间线问题，以及市场何时愿意把这些因素计入股价。
- English · 原文I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly ~$800m cash to $1.08B MC. In general, even Leopond finds current valuations extremely attractive, so he's raising more to buy the drop. Who knows though? But medium-long term, for my own thesis, I expect them to play out once revenue projections hit earnings. I've reiterated end of H1 2027 for $AAOI in terms of revenue inflection.... H4 2026 for $NBIS revenue inflection, and so on for my own ests. Of course, lot of volatility in between then.中文 · 翻译我觉得我（或者任何人）都无法准确抄底。不然，如果他们知道的话，直接玩周度期权就行了。 不过，有些股票真的很难再跌了，比如 $AAOI 的年化远期营收/市值比都快接近 1 倍了。 $POET 跌得太多了，现在大概是 8 亿美元现金对 10.8 亿美元市值。 总的来说，连 Leopond 都觉得现在的估值极具吸引力，所以他正在筹集更多资金来逢低买入。不过谁知道呢？ 但从中长期来看，根据我自己的理论，我预计一旦营收预测体现在财报中，它们就会有好的表现。 我重申了 $AAOI 的营收拐点在 2027 年上半年末…… $NBIS 的营收拐点在 2026 年第四季度，依此类推，这是我自己的估计。 当然，在那之前会有很多波动。
- English · 原文Global indiscriminate AI deleveraging right now, $AAOI is one of the high-beta names affected. I'd personally be surprised to say the least if they do $5.6B annualized revenue in 2027 (off of $471m/month projections), and remain a $6.3B company. $LITE annualized right now is ~$3.23B and they're a $48B company (but higher margins)中文 · 翻译全球AI概念股正在不分好坏地被去杠杆，而 $AAOI 就是受影响的高贝塔股之一。 我个人觉得，如果他们2027年能做到年化56亿美元营收（按每月4.71亿美元的预测算），市值却还只有63亿美元，那我至少会感到很惊讶。 $LITE 现在年化营收大概是32.3亿美元，他们是家市值480亿美元的公司（不过利润率更高）。
- English · 原文@Thomus0x eh, Rosenblatt June 30 note identified AMD as the likely first $AAOI CPO customer. I wouldn't quite say they aren't remotely close. $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE just look like your top 3 right now in terms of CPO laser visibility per the recent Morgan Stanley note.中文 · 翻译@Thomus0x 哎，Rosenblatt 6 月 30 日的报告里指出，AMD 很可能是 $AAOI 的第一个 CPO 客户。所以我觉得说他们根本不沾边，那就不太对。 $LITE / $COHR / $SIVE 看起来就是目前你的前三名，这主要是在 CPO 激光能见度方面，是根据最近摩根士丹利的报告说的。
- English · 原文Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization). There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI". Most interesting take was: "Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years". There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay. And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years). As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp. From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star. So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light. But TLDR: Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading. Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.中文 · 翻译不完全是针对 $AAOI (他们也在做CPO，只是商业化稍微落后一点)。 最近有个播客采访了 $SIVE 的CEO，名字叫“市场洞察：光子学与AI”。 最有意思的观点是： “可插拔光模块未来十年都还会存在。” 最近有很多关于CPO + RNG/MRC优化，会侵蚀可插拔光模块TAM（市场总量）的说法，但看起来可插拔还是要继续存在。 而且未来会有多种架构路径（CEO也提到，未来5年NPO和CPO一样是个重要机会）。 至于挑战：Vickram提到，制造能力和原材料供应是主要瓶颈。可能指的是上游连续波（CW）激光器产能爬坡现有的
- English · 原文@CarterChen18 Think $AMD was in talks of being a customer of $AAOI, from Rosenblatt channel checks. Could be an option, I'll ask around in the event. https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe中文 · 翻译@CarterChen18 Rosenblatt 的渠道调研显示，$AMD 之前在和 $AAOI 谈客户合作。 这可能是个选择，我会在活动上打听一下。https://t.co/8eDrSw9tCe
- English · 原文Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer effect work on the entire AI trade?中文 · 翻译铠侠系的存储股今天猛涨了17.18%。三星也涨了6.15%。 $SIVE、$LITE 和 $AAOI 这些光网络股都在展现复苏迹象，全部涨了4%以上。 从 $NBIS 到 $IREN 的 Neoclouds 概念股，盘前全部涨了4%以上。 从 $INTC 到 $AMD 再到 $MRVL，这些股都涨了4%以上。 难道克拉默效应要对整个AI概念股都起作用了吗？
- English · 原文If $AAOI are projecting $1.4B a quarter q3 2027 ($471m/month), which is $5.6B revenue annualized, (targeting 40%+ gaap gross margins). And they’re a $8B MC… Or if personal $SIVE CW Win capacity projections are around ~$400m midpoint array revenue off 60% gross margins. And that’s a $1B MC. Just applying a low 20 fwd p/e might rerate optical names considerably. Even with other names like $LITE, they’re completely sold out for the next 2 years, and having that sort of demand visibility… Is not a bubble. Europeans tend to use TTM to value companies while optical names are 2027-2028 growth stories.中文 · 翻译如果 $AAOI 预计到 2027 年第三季度，每季度能做到 14 亿美元（相当于每月 4.71 亿美元），那年化收入就是 56 亿美元（目标 GAAP 毛利率超 40%）。 而他们现在市值才 80 亿美元…… 或者，如果我个人预测的 $SIVE CW Win 产能，能带来大约 4 亿美元左右的营收（基于 60% 毛利率）。 而它现在市值才 10 亿美元。 光是给这些光器件公司一个 20 倍的远期市盈率，估值可能都会大幅重估。 即使是像 $LITE 这样的公司，未来两年订单都排满了，有这种需求可见度…… 这根本就不是泡沫。 欧洲人倾向于用过去 12 个月的业绩来估值，但光器件公司是 2027-2028 年的增长故事。
- English · 原文@waynexonline $AAOI themselves gave a $471m / month estimate starting H2 2027. If 800g gets revised up sharply across the board, that number might get hiked.中文 · 翻译@waynexonline $AAOI 他们自己给出的预测是，从 2027 年下半年开始，每月营收能达到 4.71 亿美元。 如果 800G 的需求整体大幅上调，那这个数字可能还会更高。
- English · 原文Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module volumes - scale out, scale up, scale across volumes - 1.6T/3.2T lifting blended ASP + margins - increase in AI capex This is typically very material read through on the optical sector since: I tend to think of Innolight as a $TSM (semi capex) type read on how the photonics landscape is doing. Eg. Higher silicon photonics penetration means more TAM for cw lasers like $SIVE (cw) / SOI wafer demand for $SOI. ASP hikes for future gen is positive for the other optical markers too. Think my other takeaway outside the report was Innolight stating 800g demand was growing more significantly than expected from their transcript on the 12th. Which in turn signals more demand for names like $AAOI to $LITE next earnings. TLDR: GS gives high earnings projections during a time of massive corrections. Fundamentally, broader photonics ecosystem should be happy when it’s ER time.中文 · 翻译谢谢，喜欢看评论！ 高盛将 Innolight 目标价上调至 2581 元人民币。相对当前估值，还有大约 163.6% 的上涨空间。 但最重要的是，它将 2026-2028 年的盈利预测修正值大幅上调了 65%/108%/11
- English · 原文Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.中文 · 翻译同意！在市场崩盘时还能坚守自己的投资理论，感觉真好。 从我个人投资理论来看，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年第三季度初达到 14 亿美元的季度营收。这相当于 80 亿美元市值下，年化营收达到 56 亿美元。 如果到 2026 年，这种营收的快速增长还没体现在季度财报中……那这家公司就算“完了”吗？ 这同样适用于我在 CPO（协同封装光学）板块的持仓，比如 $SIVE，这是由 $NVDA 引领的架构转变。 如果从 2026 年下半年到 2027 年，横向扩展（scale out）
- English · 原文I’m not sure if you’re aware but the entire AI sector is dropping indiscriminately right now. A $1T company like Samsung is down -26% this month. $MRVL is down -31%. So higher beta names tend to move a lot more like $AAOI and $SIVE with their 50% drops. But recoveries tend to be a lot more volatile like $AEHR 50% single day gain after ER.中文 · 翻译不确定你知不知道，但整个 AI 板块现在都在普跌。像三星这样市值万亿美元的公司，这个月都跌了 -26%。$MRVL 也跌了 -31%。所以那些高贝塔的股票，跌起来幅度就更大，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这种，跌幅能到 50%。但反弹起来也更剧烈，比如 $AEHR 财报后一天就涨了 50%。
- English · 原文I personally think valuations are extremely stupid now on $AAOI and $SIVE. With AAOI you're doing $5.62B annualized revenue (probably higher), by midpoint next year. And it's a $8B MC. With Sivers, I would est. it's close to ~5 forward 2028 P/E off 10% win allocation, 65% yield, and $75 ASP.中文 · 翻译我个人觉得，现在 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 的估值简直蠢透了。 以 $AAOI 为例，到明年年中，它的年化营收能达到 $5.62B（甚至可能更高），而市值却有 $8B。 就 Sivers 而言，我估计如果按照 10% 的中标率、65% 的利润率以及 $75 的平均售价来算，它 2028 年的远期市盈率大概会接近 5 倍。
- English · 原文I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).中文 · 翻译我没看到任何根本性的问题。市场很可能会时不时出现大幅回调，用来清洗保证金/杠杆，然后才会继续上涨。 这个月感觉就像一年中这样的时刻？ $POET 证实了那些大型光学巨头，比如 $LITE、$COHR，未来两年订单都排满了，光子学领域可能要到 2029 年。 Innolight 证实了 3 天前上调了 800G 收发器预期，所以这对 $AAOI 和其他公司来说应该是利好。 三星成为了全球最赚钱的公司，并继续预测未来几个季度 DRAM 价格上涨。$MU 签署了 16+ 份长期协议（LTA），这表明内存需求是结构性的... $META 加上超大规模数据中心资本支出计划都处于预测的较高区间。 我不会把短期价格波动和长期趋势混为一谈。就像 $AEHR 的情况那样，市场恢复通常会非常快（比如，一个月的回调可能一夜之间就被抹平）。
- English · 原文Two different capacity expansion announcements today across $TSEM and $AAOI. Tower Semi, supported by the Japanese government, announced expansion of its 300mm Silicon Photonics (SiPho), Silicon Germanium (SiGe), and advanced packaging capabilities. Targeting $1.2B net profit, and $3.6B revenue in 2028 (with a ~$28B MC, that's ~23.3 2028 forward p/e). AAOI announced the commencement of its buildout, roughly 400,000 square feet of manufacturing to make 800g/1.6T production go brrr. The overall expansion is also supported by the local city government in Texas. (they also $20.85M worth of subsidies from the State earlier). This one isn't exactly as materially new as Tower, since AAOI originally announced these plans before. Just commencement of it. Regardless, glad to see both of these companies in their Anime training arc phase as they power up.中文 · 翻译今天有两家公司宣布产能扩张，分别是 $TSEM 和 $AAOI。 Tower Semi 在日本政府支持下，宣布扩建其 300 毫米硅光子 (SiPho)、硅锗 (SiGe) 和先进封装产能。 目标是 2028 年实现 12 亿美元净利润和 36 亿美元营收（按约 280 亿美元市值计算，2028 年远期市盈率约为 23.3 倍）。 AAOI 宣布其扩建项目正式启动，将新建约 40 万平方英尺的生产设施，用于加速 800g/1.6T 产品的生产。 这次整体扩张也得到了德克萨斯州当地市政府的支持。（他们早些时候还获得了州政府 2085 万美元的补贴）。 这次 AAOI 的消息没有 Tower 那么新鲜，因为 AAOI 之前就已经宣布了这些计划。现在只是正式启动而已。 不管怎样，很高兴看到这两家公司都进入了他们的“动漫训练期”，正在积蓄力量。
- English · 原文TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.中文 · 翻译一句话总结一下 Innolight 投资者关系会议的要点： 1. “总的来说，1.6T 市场需求没有萎缩；反而，800G 需求比之前的预期大幅增长。” 可能整体最重要的一个要点就是 800G 需求预测的上修（也包括更长期的需求）。这对 $AAOI、$COHR、$LITE 等美国光模块制造商是利好消息。 很多新客户，比如新兴云服务商、AI 模型公司，都在为整体需求做贡献，而不仅仅是超大规模数据中心厂商，
- English · 原文$AAOI mainly gets revenue from pluggable, they’re developing/sampling related lasers but have no CPO design wins. Others like $MTSI look like they fell off the map for some reason with cpo lasers. CEO says “TBD” with commercial timing and it’s in reliability work right now. And fits the OSINT research done with Ayar removing Macom from their website. So would agree with MS that $SIVE, $LITE, $COHR imo are the three leaders to focus on for lasers.中文 · 翻译$AAOI的营收主要来自可插拔模块，他们正在开发/送样相关激光器，但还没有CPO设计订单。 像$MTSI这样的其他公司，似乎因为某种原因在CPO激光器领域掉队了。 CEO说商业化时间“待定”，目前正在进行可靠性测试。这也和开源情报（OSINT）研究吻合，Ayar把Macom从他们网站上撤掉了。 所以我同意MS的看法，$SIVE、$LITE、$COHR在我看来，是激光器领域最值得关注的三大龙头。
- English · 原文Regarding $AMZN RNG + OpenAI’s MRC and VCSELs. In what appears to be an indirect response on B. Riley's $AAOI sell report regarding optimizations that "flattens networks and cuts transceiver TAM 40-50%". Rosenblatt TLDR: They've already modeled for this, even though each XPU may use fewer transceivers. The number of XPUs is growing so quickly that total optical demand should still rise. On lasers architectures for CPO: VCSELs are useful as a credible bridge for NPO/short reach. Ideal architecture though for CPO is UHP CW over other lasers, and cites Broadcom for that statements. Which happens to supports my core $SIVE thesis. I feel like Rosenblatt and I share the same views on a lot of things, I like the way they roll.中文 · 翻译关于 $AMZN 的 RNG + OpenAI 的 MRC 以及 VCSELs。 这看起来像是对 B. Riley 针对 $AAOI 的卖出报告的间接回应，报告中提到了“网络扁平化并削减 40-50% 的收发器总潜在市场 (TAM)”的优化措施。 Rosenblatt 的一句话总结：他们已经把这个因素考虑进模型了，即使每个 XPU 可能使用的收发器数量会减少。 XPU 的数量增长如此之快，以至于光器件的总需求仍然应该会上升。 关于 CPO 的激光器架构：VCSELs 作为 NPO/短距离传输的可靠过渡方案很有用。 不过，CPO 的理想架构是 UHP CW，优于其他激光器，他们引用了 Broadcom 的相关声明。这恰好支持了我对 $SIVE 的核心论点。 我觉得 Rosenblatt 和我在很多事情上观点一致，我喜欢他们的风格。
- English · 原文@UNICONTSLA On the $AAOI chart, we're able to see the "Sleeping King" indicator. You can see the crown form from the chopping patterns. But once the king wakes up from their nap... chart fundamentals expect a royal decree. https://t.co/YQTSgpPMnR中文 · 翻译@UNICONTSLA 在 $AAOI 的图表上，我们能看到“沉睡王者”指标。 你可以看到王冠图案是由那些震荡模式形成的。 但一旦国王从睡梦中醒来……图表基本面就预示着一道皇家法令要来了。https://t.co/YQTSgpPMnR
- English · 原文Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.中文 · 翻译没错，看到散户认输挺有意思的。 彭博社关于Meta算力的那篇文章，在他们内部备忘录澄清之后， 还有那两份关于延迟的报道，也被英伟达否认了。 这两件事本来就是导致这次抛售的原因…… 所以，光子学/英伟达的路线图并没有根本性改变：
- English · 原文I have large concentration in $SIVE to $AAOI as well. Feels bad to suffer drawdowns from institutional photonics delay bear posts. Just for the same firm to include it in their ETFs at the bottom. NFA, but I’m especially confident about those two going forward despite the drop中文 · 翻译我在 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 上仓位也很重。 因为机构那些唱空光通信延迟的帖子，导致回撤，真是让人不爽。 结果到头来，同一家机构却在底部把它们加进自己的 ETF 里。 非财务建议，但尽管现在跌了，我还是对这两只股票的未来特别有信心。
- English · 原文@ontrialperiod when global and US markets crash off misinformation and out of context quotes from $META. I probably want to clear that up? That thing said, $AAOI, $SIVE, and $CCXI do make up large concentration in my portfolio.中文 · 翻译@ontrialperiod 当全球和美国市场因为 $META 的错误信息和断章取义的言论而暴跌时。我大概想澄清一下？ 话虽如此，$AAOI、$SIVE 和 $CCXI 确实在我投资组合中占了很大比重。
- English · 原文Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.中文 · 翻译每次看到半导体市场因为彭博社的报道措辞再次暴跌，都觉得挺有意思的… 瑞银分析师评论 $META 财报说：“这不是什么新消息。” 但不管怎么说： $AEHR 下跌 -18.3% $AAOI 下跌 -17.13% $SIVEF 下跌 -15.4% $SNDK 下跌 -14.8% $TER 下跌 -13.8% $GLW 下跌 -11.4% $MRVL 下跌 -11.2% $LITE 下跌 -10.2% $NBIS 下跌 -7.8% 看到这个，我都想起彭博社今年早些时候那篇关于 AMD/Nvidia 全球出口管制的误导性报道，当时也搞得半导体股票大跌，简直要犯 PTSD 了。 顺便提一下：如果 Meta 真有过剩产能并且能削减资本支出，他们就不会随便买下价值超过 480 亿美元的 Neocoud 合同了… 市场有时候就是这么傻。
- English · 原文@ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days. They're also capable of doing the opposite. Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.中文 · 翻译@ram_blings 不客气，我不太确定大家是不是还记得，不过 $SIVE 曾因为 $GFS 的消息，一天就涨了 70%。 $AAOI 也会时不时地单日暴涨 20-30%。 当然，它们也能反向波动，跌这么多。 光电板块波动性确实很大，但从长远来看，它们的大方向还是跟着基本面走的。
- English · 原文Photonics is backed by actual revenue numbers and it's an architectural shift championed by $NVDA. Quantum barely has any revenue. $LITE is completely sold out for the next 2 years (per $POET AGM) likely starting into 2029. Lumentum is so strained that they buy CW lasers off competitors (earnings transcript) $COHR is bottlenecked, so they buy EML off Lumentum. Then, $AAOI is coming in with Made-in-America independent CW capacity, are projecting $1.4B/quarterly revenue ending H1 2027 of a stupid $9.3B MC today. So all the CW capacity from independent players who have it now like $AAOI or $SIVE are likely to become scarce resources. Many other hyperscalers have already started LTA discussions (per Trendforce). And players like $AMD are currently talking with players such as $AAOI (Rosenblatt channel checks). Thematically, next 2 years is 9x TAM to US$154B per GS reports, especially with 16x/45x dollar content increase in scale out/scale up. Then there's the overall thematic AI drop from $META, which is widely misunderstood because people conflate what "excess capacity" means. And as UBS mentioned, Meta planning a cloud offering is NOT NEW NEWS. Bloomberg just has a tendency to publish information that causes doom drops across the semi sector like Nvidia export controls a few months back. But I'm familiar with what I'm holding so I'm confident in these numbers playing out. Especially when all the major players are sold out, the fundamentals catch up eventually.中文 · 翻译光子技术是有实实在在的营收数据支撑的，而且这是 $NVDA 大力推动的架构转型。 量子技术则几乎没什么营收。 根据 $POET 股东大会的消息，$LITE 未来两年（可能从2029年开始）的产品已经完全售罄。Lumentum 的产能非常紧张，甚至要从竞争对手那里购买连续波激光器（财报电话会议记录里提到了）。 $COHR 则卡在瓶颈上，所以他们向 Lumentum 购买 EML。 接着，$AAOI 正带着“美国制造”的独立连续波产能入局，他们预计到2027年上半年，季度营收将达到14亿美元，要知道它今天市值才93亿美元，简直太低了。 所以，现在像 $AAOI 或 $SIVE 这样拥有独立连续波产能的厂商，他们的产能很可能会变成稀缺资源。 很多其他超大规模数据中心厂商已经开始谈长期供货协议（来自 Trendforce 的消息）。而像 $AMD 这样的公司，目前正在和 $AAOI 等厂商洽谈（Rosenblatt 的渠道调研显示）。 从主题上看，根据 GS（高盛）的报告，未来两年市场总规模（TAM）将增长9倍，达到1540亿美元，特别是在横向扩展/纵向扩展方面，每美元内容投入将分别增加16倍/45倍。 然后还有来自 $META 的关于 AI 的整体主题性下跌，这被很多人误解了，因为大家混淆了“过剩产能”的真正含义。而且正如 UBS（瑞银）提到的，Meta 计划提供云服务并不是什么新鲜事。 彭博社就是有这种倾向，喜欢发布导致半导体行业全面暴跌的消息，就像几个月前关于英伟达出口管制的那次。 但我很清楚自己持有的是什么，所以我对这些数据会实现很有信心。 尤其是在所有主要玩家都产能售罄的情况下，基本面终究会追上来的。
- English · 原文@DogUrineCapital This is pretty disgusting to see $MRVL down -11%, $AMAT down -11% to $NBIS down -18% On the bright side a lot of the higher beta/smaller names like $AAOI frontran the drop. So those are faring better https://t.co/OEyJ4YiQQr中文 · 翻译@DogUrineCapital 看到 $MRVL 跌了 11%，$AMAT 跌了 11%，到 $NBIS 跌了 18%，真是让人有点恶心。 往好的一面看，很多高贝塔/小盘股，像 $AAOI，提前预警了这次下跌。 所以它们表现得还不错 https://t.co/OEyJYiQQr
- English · 原文Where did I ever say that? Majority of my portfolio is concentrated in photonics with names like $SIVE and $AAOI. However, I’m allowed to talk about other exciting developments as well… Such as the first listed US humanoid player? I still think CPO/optics has the fastest TAM ramp out of any industry, just a bit early since I’m projecting revenue inflection really hits ~H2 2027. I’m personally down a lot past few weeks, but I’m convinced my thesis with laser chokepoints and others plays out.中文 · 翻译我什么时候说过那种话了？我的大部分投资组合都集中在光子学领域，比如 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 这些票。 不过，我也被允许聊聊其他激动人心的发展啊…… 比如美国第一个上市的人形机器人公司？ 我仍然觉得 CPO/光学在所有行业里 TAM（总潜在市场）增长最快，只是现在有点早，因为我预计营收拐点大概在 2027 年下半年才会真正出现。 我个人过去几周亏了不少，但我坚信我关于激光瓶颈和其他方面的判断会奏效。
- English · 原文@gurukid5995 Markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. Memory from $SNDK to $MU was the market's main focus this month, while optical names like $AAOI corrected. I think we'll see a rotation back into photonics eventually, it's personally my highest concentration theme.中文 · 翻译@gurukid5995 市场倾向于从一个瓶颈轮动到另一个瓶颈。 本月市场主要关注的是存储板块，从 $SNDK 到 $MU，与此同时像 $AAOI 这样的光学股则出现了回调。 我觉得我们最终会看到资金重新轮动回光子学板块，这对我个人来说是集中度最高的主题。
- English · 原文Just some notes on $POET AGM and read through on optical markets: - "The top three laser suppliers control 68% of the market, and they’re completely sold out for the next two years" $LITE CEO said into 2028, so POET implicitly confirms laser shortage is going into 2029 now. - NRE with a new customer, building on POET’s interposer for high-power external light source. This is high confidence $SIVE as laser supplier given the Sept 29, 2025 PR on ELS, and new customer qualification would be material for revenue if it goes into volume ramp. - Poet expects Lumilens commercial agreement to scale to over $500 million over the next 5 years. Lumilens claimed a top-3 hyperscaler was their initial customer (Linkedin OSINT) - $830M cash on hand on balance sheet (this is more for Poet fundamentals). - "The entire optical components industry today is facing a severe shortage of critical components." Reaffirming what we know already regarding optical bottlenecks. - "Production ramp in the second half of 2026 this year." Just production timelines H2. In terms of $POET volumes: - existing capacity around 1 million optical engines per year - projected demand exiting 2027 around 1 million optical engines per month - roughly 10x capacity expansion I don't own Poet, but if management delivers on these projections it directionally looks very positive. However something to note is that unlike other suppliers that have named hyperscaler customers to to back up capacity revenues like $AAOI: $POET seems more questionable. But this does look like a very positive outlook for $POET if they match projections.中文 · 翻译只是关于 $POET 股东大会的一些笔记，以及对光学市场的一些解读： - "排名前三的激光器供应商控制了 68% 的市场，而且他们未来两年的产能已经全部售罄" $LITE 的 CEO 说的是到 2028 年，所以 POET 等于变相确认了激光器短缺会持续到 2029 年。 - 与一个新客户签订了 NRE（一次性工程费）协议，基于 POET 的中介层用于高功率外部光源。 考虑到 2025 年 9 月 29 日关于 ELS 的新闻稿，这很可能是 $SIVE 作为激光器供应商，如果进入量产爬坡，这个新客户的认证将对营收产生实质影响。 - POET 预计与 Lumilens 的商业协议在未来 5 年内规模将超过 5 亿美元。 Lumilens 声称一家排名前三的超大规模客户是他们的初始客户（通过 LinkedIn 开源情报）。 - 资产负债表上有 8.3 亿美元现金（这更偏向 POET 的基本面）。 - "整个光学元件行业目前正面临关键元器件的严重短缺。" 再次印证了我们已知的光学瓶颈问题。 - "2026 年下半年开始量产爬坡。" 只是 H2（下半年）的生产时间表。 关于 $POET 的产量： - 现有产能约为每年 100 万个光学引擎 - 预计到 2027 年底的需求约为每月 100 万个光学引擎 - 大约需要扩大 10 倍产能 我不持有 Poet，但如果管理层能兑现这些预测，方向上看是非常积极的。 不过有一点需要注意的是，与其他有明确超大规模客户来支撑产能收入的供应商（如 $AAOI）不同，$POET 似乎更值得怀疑。 但如果他们能实现这些预测，这对 $POET 来说确实是一个非常积极的展望。
- English · 原文@JClaydog Yeah sad to see. I'm personally very confident in $SIVE / $AAOI to revenue ramp with lasers in 2027 so I'm sleeping easy.中文 · 翻译@JClaydog 是啊，看着挺难过的。 我个人对 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 在 2027 年靠激光业务实现营收增长非常有信心，所以晚上睡得挺安稳的。
- English · 原文FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.中文 · 翻译说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。 还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。 所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。 台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
- English · 原文@chenbaiyang70 Looks like photonics theme selloff combined with macro drop with $AAOI. I’m personally confident from $AMD CW LTA reports and next year’s $471M/month projections. But of course people should make their own decisions, optical names tend to be more volatile.中文 · 翻译@chenbaiyang70 看起来是光电子主题的抛售，叠加宏观市场下跌，加上 $AAOI。 我个人对 $AMD 的 CW LTA 报告以及明年每月 $4.71 亿的预测很有信心。 不过，当然大家应该自己做决定，光通讯类股波动性通常比较大。
- English · 原文@hobielandrith I posted about $AAOI at $2.1B MC when someone called photonics "late". Then at $5.3B after earnings. Then $11B now. Unless their projections are wrong, doing $5.4B annual revenue ($471m/m) as a photonics company probably commands higher valuations. https://t.co/ORFGNdySSc中文 · 翻译@hobielandrith 我在 $AAOI 市值 21 亿美元的时候发帖，当时有人说光子学"晚了"。 然后财报后市值到了 53 亿美元。 现在到了 110 亿美元。 除非他们的预测错了，否则一家光子学公司做到 54 亿美元年营收（每月 4.71 亿美元），估值应该还能更高。https://t.co/ORFGNdySSc
- English · 原文oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.中文 · 翻译哦，我觉得你误会了……随着价格下跌，我反而比以往任何时候都更看好。 $SIVE 市值大约 19 亿美元，它有： - $GFS 的参考激光器 - 为 Ayar 及其他 $NVDA NVLink 生态系统中的 CPO 扩容提供激光器 - 为 $POET 及其他公司提供 CPO 规模扩展 - 为 $JBL 及其他公司提供 1.6T+ 可插拔光收发器 - O-Net 提供 ELS 大规模生产 所以，所有这些超大规模数据中心供应商都想尽可能多地生产，而 Sivers 是激光器的瓶颈…… 这只是 Win Semi 和其他合作伙伴能生产多少的问题，$SIVE 能获得大约 60% 的毛利率，还有向下拓展潜在市场（TAM）的选择权。 瑞典媒体一直在唱衰的最近 15% 股票增发，是为了纳斯达克上市流通股和并购（以及授权）。 你只是看到潜在的做空者在运营非法机器人农场，瑞典媒体对一家瑞典上市公司唱衰，再加上整体宏观下跌。 那笔大约 1.4 亿美元的可转债确实存在，但对美国机构来说只是九牛一毛。等数据出来后，我们可能会看到更多的机构持仓。 但这也就是为什么 $SIVE 优先考虑在纳斯达克上市是件好事，这样他们就不用处理这些噪音和当地媒体了。 $AAOI 市值 100 亿美元，它有： - 一家端到端（美国）的激光/设计/组装公司，预计在 2027 年下半年进入上半年，营收将达到 4.71 亿美元。 - 据说还有像 $AMD 这样的其他超大规模数据中心公司正在讨论长期协议（LTAs）。 而且他们在进行了大约 14 亿美元的 ATM（4 亿 + 4 亿 + 6 亿）后，可能手头现金充裕。 只要管理层不瞎扯，有了那些惊人的营收预测，差不多就够了。 这让我想起了去年 $NBIS 跌到 70 美元的时候，即使当时它预计年度经常性收入（ARR）有 70-90 亿美元，随着时间线临近，它又恢复到 250 多美元。感觉像是似曾相识。 我只是在等待两者的销量都能放量。光子学通常比其他行业波动更大。
- English · 原文Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.中文 · 翻译我也这么觉得。不过在那之前，我给自己的策略起了个名字：多元化亏损。 拿 $AXTI、$SOI、$AAOI 来说，还有一大堆别的。 最近回撤挺大的， CPO 相关的仓位跌得最狠（Foci、Msscorp 这些），连带那些沾边的标的也惨，真难受。 可能对我来说，教训就是光子学这块儿仓位太集中了，没怎么配存储或其他板块，也没有好好做对冲和权重分配。 Soitec 那边，出了几份我不太认同的负面机构报告。 个人觉得 AXT 跌得更凶，主要是因为流通股扩张/稀释的问题。AAOI 嘛，大概就是被这个主题一起带下来的。 我没法给买卖建议，所以要不要做成本摊平或建仓，完全看你自己的判断。 不过我还是认为，光子学这边我们还在超级周期的早期阶段，一路上涨的过程中肯定会有回调或暴跌。 但如果我个人的判断是对的，这些标的很多会在 2027 年中到 2028 年迎来一个重大的转折点。 市场一般不会等到事情发生才提前定价，不过考虑到现在已经是 2026 年下半年了，有些想法可能稍微早了点，或者还处在建设期。 所以关键还是要建立你自己的信念。
- English · 原文@Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.中文 · 翻译@Zenctwill $MU 的财报可能对 SK 海力士/三星有很好的参考意义，这两家占了 KOSPI 指数的大部分权重（被动资金也是）。所以 SK 指数走高的概率更大。 这对 AI 需求也是个积极的信号，这也是为什么 $LITE、$AAOI 和其他股票在盘后小幅上涨。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文@SMike1271547 I actually just added on $AAOI. Was talking about in general since everything dropped across the board, not specific names MB.中文 · 翻译@SMike1271547 我其实刚才又加仓了 $AAOI。 我之前说的是整体情况，毕竟全线都在跌，不是针对具体标的。
- English · 原文That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect ASP/margins to go up across the board as well. Especially as the industry is bottlenecked and $AMD + CSPs are going around hunting for LTAs.中文 · 翻译那你自己判断咯。 不过我先抛个观点： 如果 $AAOI 能达到预期，那就是超过 800% 的同比增长，按 128 亿市值换算成年化营收就是 56 亿美元。 我猜那个每月 4.71 亿的数字还会继续往上走，因为需求看起来会指数级增长到 2028 年。 我估计整个行业的价格和利润率都会往上走。尤其是现在行业卡脖子，$AMD 加上各大云服务商都在到处找长期协议（LTA）。
- English · 原文I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.中文 · 翻译最近好多人在问我 OE Solutions (138080) 这家公司。 这是我目前的研究和想法： 这是一家韩国的小型光收发器公司，跟 $AAOI 有点像。 而且他们已经成为全球为数不多的 EML 玩家之一（比如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），手握稀缺的 100G EML 激光器产能，专门用于 800G/1.6T。 OE 看起来不光想造 EML，还想做完整的收发器。他们已经有了成品 ELSFP CPO 产品，配上 UHP CW 激光器，Q3 开始送样。 同样地，OE 似乎也在整完整的 ELSFP 方案，而不是只卖 CW 激光晶粒，这样能抢到更多市场份额。 所以你可以把它理解成"韩国版的 AAOI"，但用的是 EML 而不是 CW，产能和认证方面还差点火候，目前是在追赶世界其他玩家。 时间线上来看： 1. 23dBm 制冷的 ELSFP 样品，2026 年 Q3 开始送样 2. 800G 的销售基础，2027 年 1.6T "全面发力" 3. 2027 年 H2 末、2028 年 H1 及以后，ELSFP 可能进入放量生产 而且从他们 2025 年投资者简报片段来看，似乎还在搞 200G EML 能力——简报里提到"100GBaud EML / 200G PAM"。考虑到他们的 IP 和 demo，这个方向挺有戏。 ELS 才刚发布不久，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器大概率也是 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的光子学国家队，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和那些更大的玩家。 （持仓披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 仓位。这只是基本面研究，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。） 关于 OE Solutions 的估值： 1. 这些增长方向目前似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人真正理解他们在做什么。 3. 良率数据有些不清晰。 1. 客户方面：现在其实正处于 EML/CW 激光器大缺货周期，所以任何独立的产能都会被抢着要。我个人觉得他们找客户不难。我甚至认为他们造出来的东西可能都会被扫货，还会获得韩国政府的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为市值小 + 韩国上市，很多美国机构根本够不上门槛。我也觉得没多少人真正理解他们在搞什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 公布的晶圆/模组利用率很低（我记得大概有 31% 的产能闲置），所以他们在需要砸资本开支之前，光靠现有的产能就能产生可观的收入。 至于 EML/CW 以及其他良率，我也不太确定。可能得直接去问公司。 这是不是一家随便的烂公司？不是。人家做光收发器已经超过 20 年了，在美国和荷兰都有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长方向看起来要到明年才爆发，而且主要取决于产能和良率。 我个人觉得，如果 EML/CW 技术被收购的话，它的价值可能远超目前市值。 尤其是被那些想垂直整合 EML（用于可插拔模块）和 CW 激光器（用于 CPO）的大玩家收购。 市场可能在等 Q3 送样后的认证结果或者营收预期公告，才敢下定论。 总结我的想法： 去年就有朋友讨论过这家公司，当时可能太早了。两个月前看到评论区热闹起来，依然太早。 我现在还是觉得早，但到了 Q3 和 Q4 可能就会变得有意思起来。我个人认为它的风险比 $SIVE 这种深度嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和一堆超大规模供应商的 CPO 大玩家要高得多。$SIVE 还有 Win Semi 等公司在帮忙摊薄量产风险。 而 OE Solutions 看起来更像是一个新手玩家，想照着 $AAOI 的模式去造光收发器，但走的又是主权 EML 和 CW 激光器路线，面向 CPO 产品。 现在关于客户和量产爬坡的问题还有很多没解答，这本身就有实质风险。 但如果你相信韩国能建立 800G/1.6T 收发器 EML 供应链，以及带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP 方案。 那么 OE Solutions 或许值得一看。我还在继续研究这家公司，目前只是初步想法。
- English · 原文@TW_trades_ Let’s just say bears are regarded when the entire industry is laser/capacity constrained. Then $AAOI comes in with $471m/month projections with a lot of independent supply, which happens to be located in the US too.中文 · 翻译@TW_trades_ 这么说吧，当整个行业都在光/产能受限时，空头才值得重视。 然后 $AAOI 来了，月收入预估 4.71 亿美元，还自带大量独立产能，而且刚好在美国本土。
- English · 原文@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.中文 · 翻译@degenlurker_ $AAOI 和 $SIVEF 是我之前猜的、最有可能跟 $AMD 签大额 CW 激光器采购协议的两家公司。看接下来怎么走吧。 基于 aaoi 和 amd 的分析师渠道调研。以及 amd 跟 gfs/sivers 的参考激光器。
- English · 原文非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！ 总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块 以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。 又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。 而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！ 不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文Trendforce reports that $AMD is actively trying to secure CW laser supply with multiple major procurement orders... Is probably just the start of the bottleneck? There's not much independent capacity in Western supply chains left other than $SIVE or $AAOI and maybe Macom. Especially after Lumentum/Coherent got locked up with multi-year agreements with Nvidia. (disclosure, own Sive and aaoi) Lumentum is already CW laser constrained and is likely buying off Japanese companies like Sumitomo/Furukawa if I had to guess per ER, and those are probably running at max capacity. From the Trendforce report, this is: "to ensure that its future capacity will not be constrained by NVIDIA and other major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs)." I wouldn't be surprised if other hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and others saw Nvidia / AMD signing LTAs, and are trying to secure capacity next. A lot of it is game theory on not getting choked out by competitors, and looks like AMD is tipping the first domino after Nvidia. But my opinion is that this just goes and show how invaluable this CW laser chokepoint is and the companies are inside it.中文 · 翻译Trendforce 报道说 $AMD 正在积极争取 CW 激光供应，下了好几笔大采购订单…… 这可能只是瓶颈的开始吧？ 西方供应链中，除了 $SIVE 和 $AAOI，可能还有 Macom 之外，已经没多少独立的产能了。 尤其是在 Lumentum/Coherent 和英伟达签了好几年协议，产能都被锁住之后。（披露：持有 Sive 和 aaoi） Lumentum 的 CW 激光供应已经很紧张了，根据财报我猜他们可能正在从住友/古河电工这类日本公司那里采购，而这些公司大概也已经满负荷运转了。 根据 Trendforce 的报告，这是： “为了确保其未来的产能不会受到英伟达和其他主要云服务提供商（CSP）的限制。” 如果亚马逊、微软等其他超大规模企业看到英伟达/AMD 签署了长期协议，然后也开始争取产能，我一点也不会感到惊讶。 很大程度上这是一种博弈论，为了不被竞争对手卡脖子，看起来英伟达之后，AMD 正在推倒第一块多米诺骨牌。 但我的看法是，这恰好说明了 CW 激光这个“瓶颈”有多么宝贵，以及处于这个瓶颈中的公司有多重要。
- English · 原文@AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.中文 · 翻译@AsianbeBlazin 对啊，但 $AEHR 这边最近也没什么大新闻。 不像 $AAOI 那种被激烈争论的股票，也就一两个人说 AEHR 会跌回 $25。
- English · 原文I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.中文 · 翻译不太理解为什么很多人对我的重仓多头 $AAOI 极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，一路涨到 $170 的时候都有人看空。（对，我就是觉得每个空头都错了，咱们看看最后谁对。） 他们有稀缺的激光产能，这正是 $AMD 和其他超大规模数据中心在找的。 而整个行业都被 $NVDA 卡着瓶颈。 加上他们有美国本土的收发器供应链，用于大规模生产 800g/1.6T（管理层表示——这是全美最大的）。 同时需求远超供给，而组装环节却外包到了亚洲。 然后他们给出的指引是，2027 年上半年到下半年过渡期间，月营收 4.71 亿美元。这相当于年化经常性收入 56 亿美元，而市值才 135 亿美元…… 而且到了 2028 年更晚的时候，还有大量重要的爆发量会出现。 至于波动，可能时不时会有 6 亿美元的活跃 ATM 增发被拿出来用。 再加上时不时冒出来的随机看空帖子和宏观因素，导致更大波动（比如某分析师报告因为假的 CPO 延迟传闻看空 $LITE，结果把板块内其他股票也带下来了）。 另外我们离那个时间点还有一年，所以时间线确实还有点早。 自打 $NBIS 之后，我就没见过这么快的营收爬坡。
- English · 原文@cchronobreakk I don't need to open any new US stock position when all my ideas from memory to photonics like $AAOI are still playing out?中文 · 翻译@cchronobreakk 我没必要开任何新的美股仓位吧，毕竟我脑子里从存储到光电子这类我想到的题材都还在跑，比如 $AAOI。
- English · 原文Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.中文 · 翻译回顾一下2025年那些天马行空的想法，挺有意思的。 那个时候，$AAOI市值20亿美元，$LITE市值260亿美元，$AXTI市值5亿美元。 现在： - AAOI市值153.7亿美元 - Lumentum市值744.7亿美元 - AXT市值72.4亿美元 当时信息更少，毕竟还是个早期主题。 当然，随着更多细节浮出水面，ASIC项目的一些细微差别可能被我忽略了。 但方向上看，很高兴我的主题思路最终是正确的。 看着现在市值30亿美元的光学多头标的，比如$SIVE，感觉就像是既视感。
- English · 原文Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.中文 · 翻译反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
- English · 原文New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.中文 · 翻译最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。 并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息） 明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。 也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。 我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。 这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
- English · 原文I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.中文 · 翻译我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。 现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。 连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。 但那些接盘的还不肯承认。 我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。 要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？ 光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。 但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。 而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。
- English · 原文Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.中文 · 翻译Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。 然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。 每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。 再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。 甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。 现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。 一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
- English · 原文This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.中文 · 翻译这肯定要让很多人不高兴了： 但技术分析（TA）对交易者来说，就是占星术。 它就是个确认偏误，再加上利用人们入场交易时的心理。 有点像当初人们在 $SPCX IPO 时抢跑 $SPCE，就是料到散户会因为交易心理搞混股票代码。 $SIVE 涨了
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文@WENXIN229986 that's literally for you to decide. If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B. optical names are very volatile.中文 · 翻译@WENXIN229986 这完全是你自己决定的事。 如果你觉得他们到 2027 年上半年末能实现月营收 4.71 亿美元，那 $AAOI 市值 134 亿美元的情况下，潜力在我看来挺高的。 光通信标的波动性很大。
- English · 原文这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。 目前今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。 我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！ 比如像 Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。 如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对… 所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。 我只是边走边分享而已！中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i中文 · 翻译高兴看到光学板块的股票，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，都在按照应有的节奏小幅回升。 一开始的那波下跌简直是无厘头。https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
- English · 原文@Matthew93889052 $AAOI revenues are dominated by pluggable. These are concurrent architectures happening in parallel, not one or the other. But maybe past 2029, we’ll likely see some pluggable revenue be cannablized中文 · 翻译@Matthew93889052 $AAOI 的营收主要来自可插拔模块。 这些是并行发生的架构，而不是二选一。 但也许到2029年之后，我们可能会看到部分可插拔营收被蚕食。
- English · 原文I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583中文 · 翻译我并不觉得 $AAOI、$LITE 或 $SIVE 那边的 photonics 会很快消失… 只是波动实在太大了。 不管怎样，好奇大家今天在买什么？https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
- English · 原文Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.中文 · 翻译这些公司，我随口一说哈： - $ASX - 住友电气 - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - 创意电子 (AlChip) - $TSEM - $FN - 古河电气 - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR 所以说，基本上就是在市值 100 亿到 1000 亿美元区间的 AI 相关股票。 跟大盘指数或者像 $ARM、$MRVL 这种已经涨了一大截的股票比起来，它们现在的投资回报率可能更吸引人，对吧？ （声明一下，我只对上面提到的 $NBIS、$TSEM、$AAOI 有投资兴趣） 我经常提到很多小盘股，不过也就是为了追求超额回报。 感觉这些公司好多都还有上涨空间。
- English · 原文Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)中文 · 翻译随便瞎想：$JBL 看起来是个挺有吸引力的长期标的，市值 $380 亿。 我不太觉得市场已经把他们在 1.6T LRO 可插拔收发器业务上的潜力算进去了。 特别是如果问题的关键是 "以 $SIVE 为瓶颈的 2027 年上半年，你能赚多少"，而不是 "需求够不够大"。 他们已经铺好了庞大的供应链……而且接手了 $INTC 的可插拔产线。 相比 $AAOI 靠融资砸钱建激光晶圆厂，这套模式似乎更可规模化——只要你手里有 $SIVE，再加上一堆不同的晶圆厂（比如 Win Semi 和其他）一起量产激光器，剩下的交给 $JBL 搞定。 那你等于白捡了一个类似 Innolight 的架构（还带美国溢价），而且已经有一条经过超大规模客户验证的供应链。 我现在没持仓，只是抛个想法，供别人去做研究。 大概 2027 年上半年大家才会开始反应过来。可能 40% 的重新定价听起来合理？ （目前没有任何持仓，纯粹是个想法）
- English · 原文@0xHyperEVM Yeah $MRVL was $87 or so, $ARM was $130. $87 -> $288 for Marvell $134 -> $347 for Arm not too shabby for my names? I still think many have a toooon of room to go like $AAOI.中文 · 翻译@0xHyperEVM 是啊，$MRVL 当时大概 $87，$ARM 是 $130。 $87 → $288 给 Marvell $134 → $347 给 Arm 我的这些票表现还不错吧？我还是觉得很多股还有大把空间，比如 $AAOI。
- English · 原文Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.中文 · 翻译不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键看结构。 如果你是在做一笔 $6 亿的 ATM 融资，用来建激光器晶圆产能，在 2027 年上半年每个月 4.71 亿美元（较低市值区间）的节奏下跟 $AAOI 合作，那这就是增厚型的。 如果你是为了满足纳斯达克上市要求，用 $SIVE 稀释 15%，然后把募集资金拿去做并购，那也是增厚型的。 如果你跟 $IQE 一起稀释，通过跟 $MTSI 做私募来清掉过去的有毒债务，那也是增厚型的。 但如果你是像 $IREN 那样，一次稀释 $60 亿，然后大概率趁 $SLNH / $BKKT 的托们每次拉升时把这些股抛到公开市场上——而这些小散里多数最后都归零了——那这就是掠夺性的。
- English · 原文If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized). I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name. So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.中文 · 翻译如果你好奇的话： $4649 对应 107,894,491（超过 1 亿！）次曝光。 所有这些钱都会用于救助流浪狗，之后会做大额捐赠！ 大概是每救一只狗 $600，所以这个数额会随着 Serenity 粉丝数的增长等比扩大。 我也相信我应该靠投资 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 在股市赚钱，而不是从粉丝身上赚钱。 尤其是我自己觉得投资水平还够。 所以我从来觉得没必要设高门槛付费或者做付费广告。（就算不赚钱我也会这么干）。 能靠每天发发观点玩玩就帮到我在意的事，我很开心。 而且我最近看到很多粉丝以我的名义向本地收容所捐款。 所以真心谢谢你们，这让我很满足。
- English · 原文How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta中文 · 翻译你们怎么看 $RDDT 跌了 99% 连续两天收红？ 难道老老实实拿着 $AAOI 或 $MRVL 这类已经高贝塔的个股就那么难吗？ 你方向可能看对了，但短期时机选错了。 多拿一周或一个月，差别就大了。 https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
- English · 原文Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)中文 · 翻译市场回调的时候还挺有意思的。 从 $NVDA 跌 4.87% 到 $MU 跌 7.03%。高贝塔票像 $PL 直接跌了 22.02%。 挺好笑的，媒体总在那拼命解释，比如： "博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录暴跌" 博通预测需求旺盛到 2028 年，纯粹是编故事。AI 基建这边除了资本支出在增加，什么都没变。 真正实质性的变化是加息概率上升了。 但每年总有那么几次，在大涨新高之后冒出这类随机回调。 我个人不会去押注美联储决策的概率，继续拿着现有公司指引的仓位（比如 $AAOI 2027 上半年 4.71 亿美元）。
- English · 原文$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。 整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块） 还有几家别的。
- English · 原文@awodias No, $AAOI is primarily pluggable exposure. But they have large exposure to CPO too, hence why I included the word photonics. Second favorite pure play CPO exposure would be FOCI for me.中文 · 翻译@awodias 不，$AAOI 主要是可插拔模块的敞口。但他们也大量涉及 CPO，所以我用了“光子学”这个词。 第二看好的纯 CPO 敞口，对我来说是 FOCI。
- English · 原文$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是我除了 AAOI 以外最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，而且那边有喜剧演员给你提供乐子。 今天，一家叫 Protean Funds 的非技术背景新对冲基金（很可能在做空）跑出来发言了。 说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是凭空想象的。 而就在这之后，$GFS 刚把 $SIVE 列为他们的参考激光器。 （给新读者补充点背景：瑞典很多人只看过去 12 个月的营收，根本不理解未来增长这个概念） 还有就是他们不懂，现在根本就没有任何 CPO 应用已经放量。 所以瑞典的对冲基金一直在做空（其中很多基金，比如 Colosseum / Origo，都已经严重亏损了）。 但是……对于技术派读者来说……从 2026 年下半年到 2028 年，市场空间在 1 年半内从接近 0 飙到 910 亿美元（我们现在已经进入下半年了）。 整体市场空间达到 1410 亿美元（这也是 1 年半内翻了 10 倍以上）……而且 $SIVE 已经通过 $JBL 和其他未公开的可插拔厂家，打入了可插拔市场。 对于这些瑞典本土公司来说，在 $SIVE 即将迎来史上最大拐点之前做空，结局恐怕不会太好看。 放量只是时间问题。
- English · 原文$AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T and follow along Jensen.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 是我目前最看好的美股多头。 我个人的策略是最近每次它跌到 $150、甚至 $170 时就分批加仓。 $JBL 一旦他们为 $SIVE 做的 1.6T LRO 在 2027 上半年进入量产，表现应该会非常好。今天也聊到了 $RDDT。 $MRVL 如果你认为它能达到 1 万亿美元市值，并且跟紧老黄（Jensen）的脚步。
- English · 原文$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 是我从$28就开始持续加仓的标的之一。 就是随便洗澡时瞎想……感觉如果他们执行到位，翻倍甚至翻三倍几乎是迟早的事？ 毕竟800G/1.6T光模块的需求实在太大了…… 而这公司瞄准的是美国最大产能，还搞了极端的垂直整合。 我觉得有一点值得记住——主权数据中心 / Tier 2 AI 数据中心也会增加800G的需求，因为超大规模云厂商正在往1.6T升级。 所以800G的需求实际上会持续增长…… 然后还有分析师传言说$AAOI在和$AMD / $NVDA洽谈。考虑到所有人都在抢产能排期到2028年，这其实挺符合预期的。 英伟达总是先动手，然后像EML那样卡住其他人的瓶颈，所以如果这次有另一家超大规模云厂商吸取了教训，也不奇怪吧？ 另外，似乎所有人都在按规模量产后ASP下降来做模型。但如果明年上半年真的像预期那样成为主要瓶颈…… 那可能就会出现意料之外的涨价 + 利润率全面扩张，$AAOI、$LITE 以及其他标的都还没把这点计入模型。
- English · 原文I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity. Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months. That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.中文 · 翻译我说过 $AAOI 是我最看好的美国光通信多头…… 今天涨了 +20.1%。 如果你想找下一个 $SNDK，眼前就是。 我认为 2027 年上半年进入下半年，对光子学玩家来说，很可能是那个巨大的拐点。 我们只是稍微早了一点，现在刚进 2026 年下半年，大家都在扩产能。 一个通用规律：如果你的股票不是太空或量子相关的，市场大约会提前 8 个月去定价。 那个营收增长拐点迟早会来，问题只是什么时候来，我们等着就是了，同时也要接受期间的波动。
- English · 原文@StormDirac Yeah, it's extremely disingenuous to conflate different architectures, customers timelines. And try to profit off false information with $SIVE. But with Citron and $AAOI, didnt turn out very well shorting optical companies in supercycles.中文 · 翻译@StormDirac 没错，把不同的架构、客户时间线混为一谈，真是太不诚实了。 还想利用虚假信息靠 $SIVE 捞一笔。 不过，看看 Citron 和 $AAOI，在超级周期里做空光通信公司，结果都不怎么好。
- English · 原文Idk… I mean everyone called $AXTI a scam and now it’s up thousands of percent? Everyone called $AAOI management a scam and now that’s up 7x too. Institutions went out and criticized my $SOI long as well at $44 and now it’s $170… after they bought the float… Not sure if it’s short selling or trying to accumulate the float.中文 · 翻译不好说吧……当初人人都说 $AXTI 是骗局，结果现在涨了几千个百分点？ 当初人人都说 $AAOI 管理层是骗局，结果现在也涨了七倍。 机构们还跑出来批评我在 $44 做多 $SOI，结果现在涨到 $170 了……还是在它们买完流通盘之后…… 不确定这到底是做空，还是想偷偷吸筹。
- English · 原文I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing up in the epiwafer companies like landmark. All the modeling with AXT was with former contracts made, not after $SNDK style ASP hikes.中文 · 翻译说实话这些预测我全都中了 > InP 衬底瓶颈 > 激光器瓶颈，市场因为这一点奖励了拥有激光器 fab 的 $AAOI。 不过市场确实花了 6 个月才意识到 $AXTI 有多重要。还有瓶颈开始在 landmark 这类外延片公司显现出来。 所有对 AXT 建的模型都是用之前签的合同算的，而不是 $SNDK 那种涨价模式之后的数据。
- English · 原文Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone. I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI. And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq中文 · 翻译哇塞，40 万关注了！谢谢大家。 从 $TSEM 到 $AAOI，我很享受免费跟所有人分享想法这个过程。 尤其是当这些方向判断最终对了，还能帮别人建立起自己的信念感，那就更好了。https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq
- English · 原文$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 在我看来是最有吸引力的 CPO 概念股。 虽然它波动很大。 但你可能要到几年后光子学领域下一次架构变革时，才能再找到这样的标的。 核心激光器供应商里，它们市值不都是几百亿吗？ $AAOI = 150 亿美元 古河电工 = 260 亿美元 $MTSI = 290 亿美元 住友电工 = 590 亿美元 $COHR = 730 亿美元 $LITE = 740 亿美元 然后 $SIVE 作为核心 CPO 激光器瓶颈之一，市值只有 23 亿美元。 财报通常只是确认那些小信号——比如 Jabil 电话会纪要里关于 1.6T LRO 的量产线索。 而大部分收益往往是在正式确认之前赚到的，而不是之后，这只是一条经验法则。
- English · 原文确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底， 路向下游直到光模块成品制造商… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。 不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
- English · 原文Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make. The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums. Just annoying there's a $600m dilution affecting near term prices.中文 · 翻译没错，$AAOI 确实具备 800G/1.6T 光收发器从端到端的量产能力，而在如今这个超大规模云厂商会抢购 $AAOI 或其他光学厂商能造出的任何东西的时代，这一点相当关键。 而且他们试图把所有环节都放在美国本土完成 + 还能拿到税收抵免（比如德州），这本身就该带来估值溢价。 就是有点烦人，那笔 6 亿美元的稀释正在影响短期股价。
- English · 原文华人社区最近的赞誉让我感到受宠若惊！ 我认为任何空头被打爆，都只是我单纯喜欢像 $AAOI 这样的股票而产生的无意间的副作用。 希望也能与更多的华人社区朋友互动（最近我在 X 上跟日本和韩国的网友互动得比较多）。中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.中文 · 翻译$AAOI 更偏向纯粹的制造规模，我极度看好他们。 所以在我看来它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此极度看好其营收增长。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要的 CPO 超大规模供应商似乎都在用他们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。 连 $JBL 都与 Sivers 在 1.6T LRO 上建立了突破性的护城河。 Sivers 的上限是天花板，未来他们也可以像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样通过资本开支实现垂直整合。 但他们目前的主要重点应该是尽可能打造最大的 IP 护城河 + 将制造外包以保持轻资本。 以后随时可以垂直整合组装和激光器制造。 我因为不同的原因看好这两家。
- English · 原文@PronologieFR $AAOI literally went from $28 to $170. That was a brrr. But if you're talking in short term timeframes, there's a $600m dilution ongoing, which caps upside.中文 · 翻译@PronologieFR $AAOI 真的从 $28 涨到了 $170。那波真是疯狂。 但如果你说的是短期时间框架，目前正在进行一笔 $6 亿的稀释，这会限制向上空间。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
AAOI 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：