AAOI · Serenity 持续观点

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历史观点（52 条，最新在上）

2026/06/26 09:02看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@JClaydog Yeah sad to see. I'm personally very confident in $SIVE / $AAOI to revenue ramp with lasers in 2027 so I'm sleeping easy.
中文 · 翻译
@JClaydog 是啊，看着挺难过的。我个人对 $SIVE 和 $AAOI 在 2027 年靠激光业务实现营收增长非常有信心，所以晚上睡得挺安稳的。
2026/06/26 03:06看多重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.
中文 · 翻译
说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
2026/06/26 00:50看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@chenbaiyang70 Looks like photonics theme selloff combined with macro drop with $AAOI. I’m personally confident from $AMD CW LTA reports and next year’s $471M/month projections. But of course people should make their own decisions, optical names tend to be more volatile.
中文 · 翻译
@chenbaiyang70 看起来是光电子主题的抛售，叠加宏观市场下跌，加上 $AAOI。我个人对 $AMD 的 CW LTA 报告以及明年每月 $4.71 亿的预测很有信心。不过，当然大家应该自己做决定，光通讯类股波动性通常比较大。
2026/06/25 16:42看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@hobielandrith I posted about $AAOI at $2.1B MC when someone called photonics "late". Then at $5.3B after earnings. Then $11B now. Unless their projections are wrong, doing $5.4B annual revenue ($471m/m) as a photonics company probably commands higher valuations. https://t.co/ORFGNdySSc
中文 · 翻译
@hobielandrith 我在 $AAOI 市值 21 亿美元的时候发帖，当时有人说光子学"晚了"。然后财报后市值到了 53 亿美元。现在到了 110 亿美元。除非他们的预测错了，否则一家光子学公司做到 54 亿美元年营收（每月 4.71 亿美元），估值应该还能更高。https://t.co/ORFGNdySSc
2026/06/25 02:15看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.
中文 · 翻译
我也这么觉得。不过在那之前，我给自己的策略起了个名字：多元化亏损。拿 $AXTI、$SOI、$AAOI 来说，还有一大堆别的。最近回撤挺大的， CPO 相关的仓位跌得最狠（Foci、Msscorp 这些），连带那些沾边的标的也惨，真难受。可能对我来说，教训就是光子学这块儿仓位太集中了，没怎么配存储或其他板块，也没有好好做对冲和权重分配。 Soitec 那边，出了几份我不太认同的负面机构报告。个人觉得 AXT 跌得更凶，主要是因为流通股扩张/稀释的问题。AAOI 嘛，大概就是被这个主题一起带下来的。我没法给买卖建议，所以要不要做成本摊平或建仓，完全看你自己的判断。不过我还是认为，光子学这边我们还在超级周期的早期阶段，一路上涨的过程中肯定会有回调或暴跌。但如果我个人的判断是对的，这些标的很多会在 2027 年中到 2028 年迎来一个重大的转折点。市场一般不会等到事情发生才提前定价，不过考虑到现在已经是 2026 年下半年了，有些想法可能稍微早了点，或者还处在建设期。所以关键还是要建立你自己的信念。
2026/06/24 21:47看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.
中文 · 翻译
@Zenctwill $MU 的财报可能对 SK 海力士/三星有很好的参考意义，这两家占了 KOSPI 指数的大部分权重（被动资金也是）。所以 SK 指数走高的概率更大。这对 AI 需求也是个积极的信号，这也是为什么 $LITE、$AAOI 和其他股票在盘后小幅上涨。
2026/06/23 15:42提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.
中文 · 翻译
好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
2026/06/23 15:23看多加仓跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@SMike1271547 I actually just added on $AAOI. Was talking about in general since everything dropped across the board, not specific names MB.
中文 · 翻译
@SMike1271547 我其实刚才又加仓了 $AAOI。我之前说的是整体情况，毕竟全线都在跌，不是针对具体标的。
2026/06/22 14:19看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
That’s for you to decide. But just throwing this out there: If $AAOI hits projections, that’s over 800%+ Y/Y growth, and $5.6B revenue annualized off $12.8B MC. My guess is that the $471m/month will keep going up as demand seems to scale exponentially into 2028. I’d expect ASP/margins to go up across the board as well. Especially as the industry is bottlenecked and $AMD + CSPs are going around hunting for LTAs.
中文 · 翻译
那你自己判断咯。不过我先抛个观点：如果 $AAOI 能达到预期，那就是超过 800% 的同比增长，按 128 亿市值换算成年化营收就是 56 亿美元。我猜那个每月 4.71 亿的数字还会继续往上走，因为需求看起来会指数级增长到 2028 年。我估计整个行业的价格和利润率都会往上走。尤其是现在行业卡脖子，$AMD 加上各大云服务商都在到处找长期协议（LTA）。
2026/06/21 07:53提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.
中文 · 翻译
最近好多人在问我 OE Solutions (138080) 这家公司。这是我目前的研究和想法：这是一家韩国的小型光收发器公司，跟 $AAOI 有点像。而且他们已经成为全球为数不多的 EML 玩家之一（比如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），手握稀缺的 100G EML 激光器产能，专门用于 800G/1.6T。 OE 看起来不光想造 EML，还想做完整的收发器。他们已经有了成品 ELSFP CPO 产品，配上 UHP CW 激光器，Q3 开始送样。同样地，OE 似乎也在整完整的 ELSFP 方案，而不是只卖 CW 激光晶粒，这样能抢到更多市场份额。所以你可以把它理解成"韩国版的 AAOI"，但用的是 EML 而不是 CW，产能和认证方面还差点火候，目前是在追赶世界其他玩家。时间线上来看： 1. 23dBm 制冷的 ELSFP 样品，2026 年 Q3 开始送样 2. 800G 的销售基础，2027 年 1.6T "全面发力" 3. 2027 年 H2 末、2028 年 H1 及以后，ELSFP 可能进入放量生产而且从他们 2025 年投资者简报片段来看，似乎还在搞 200G EML 能力——简报里提到"100GBaud EML / 200G PAM"。考虑到他们的 IP 和 demo，这个方向挺有戏。 ELS 才刚发布不久，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器大概率也是 2027 年。所以这基本上是韩国的光子学国家队，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和那些更大的玩家。（持仓披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 仓位。这只是基本面研究，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。）关于 OE Solutions 的估值： 1. 这些增长方向目前似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人真正理解他们在做什么。 3. 良率数据有些不清晰。 1. 客户方面：现在其实正处于 EML/CW 激光器大缺货周期，所以任何独立的产能都会被抢着要。我个人觉得他们找客户不难。我甚至认为他们造出来的东西可能都会被扫货，还会获得韩国政府的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为市值小 + 韩国上市，很多美国机构根本够不上门槛。我也觉得没多少人真正理解他们在搞什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 公布的晶圆/模组利用率很低（我记得大概有 31% 的产能闲置），所以他们在需要砸资本开支之前，光靠现有的产能就能产生可观的收入。至于 EML/CW 以及其他良率，我也不太确定。可能得直接去问公司。这是不是一家随便的烂公司？不是。人家做光收发器已经超过 20 年了，在美国和荷兰都有研发。但他们整个 AI 增长方向看起来要到明年才爆发，而且主要取决于产能和良率。我个人觉得，如果 EML/CW 技术被收购的话，它的价值可能远超目前市值。尤其是被那些想垂直整合 EML（用于可插拔模块）和 CW 激光器（用于 CPO）的大玩家收购。市场可能在等 Q3 送样后的认证结果或者营收预期公告，才敢下定论。总结我的想法：去年就有朋友讨论过这家公司，当时可能太早了。两个月前看到评论区热闹起来，依然太早。我现在还是觉得早，但到了 Q3 和 Q4 可能就会变得有意思起来。我个人认为它的风险比 $SIVE 这种深度嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和一堆超大规模供应商的 CPO 大玩家要高得多。$SIVE 还有 Win Semi 等公司在帮忙摊薄量产风险。而 OE Solutions 看起来更像是一个新手玩家，想照着 $AAOI 的模式去造光收发器，但走的又是主权 EML 和 CW 激光器路线，面向 CPO 产品。现在关于客户和量产爬坡的问题还有很多没解答，这本身就有实质风险。但如果你相信韩国能建立 800G/1.6T 收发器 EML 供应链，以及带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP 方案。那么 OE Solutions 或许值得一看。我还在继续研究这家公司，目前只是初步想法。
2026/06/19 09:20看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@TW_trades_ Let’s just say bears are regarded when the entire industry is laser/capacity constrained. Then $AAOI comes in with $471m/month projections with a lot of independent supply, which happens to be located in the US too.
中文 · 翻译
@TW_trades_ 这么说吧，当整个行业都在光/产能受限时，空头才值得重视。然后 $AAOI 来了，月收入预估 4.71 亿美元，还自带大量独立产能，而且刚好在美国本土。
2026/06/18 15:11看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.
中文 · 翻译
@degenlurker_ $AAOI 和 $SIVEF 是我之前猜的、最有可能跟 $AMD 签大额 CW 激光器采购协议的两家公司。看接下来怎么走吧。基于 aaoi 和 amd 的分析师渠道调研。以及 amd 跟 gfs/sivers 的参考激光器。
2026/06/18 09:38看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
非常感谢中文社区对我最看好股票的投资思路进行的深度剖析！总的来说，像 $AAOI 和 $SIVE 这样的激光公司是我个人的最爱，因为它们在拓展营收方面有着极大的想象空间。它们可以不仅仅局限于销售激光器，还能制造完整的光模块以及各种光引擎或 ELS (外部光源) 组件。又或者像 $COHR 那样，甚至可以向上游延伸进军衬底制造领域，从而实现垂直整合，并不断提升自身的毛利率和总潜在市场规模 TAM 这其中很大一部分的关键在于要率先精准踩中投资主线，毕竟去年很多人甚至都不觉得“光子学（photonics）”能成为一个真正的热门概念。而且我认为最会让大多数人感到惊讶的是，我们目前仍处于极其早期的阶段。绝大多数的营收放量（爬坡）要到明年，也就是 2027 年的上半年乃至下半年才会真正开始！不过，能看到中文社区大家持续不断的支持，真的让我感觉非常棒。我会尽我所能，不辜负大家给我起的 “白毛股神” 这个称号。
中文 · 翻译
原推为中文，无需翻译
2026/06/17 03:00提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.
中文 · 翻译
@AsianbeBlazin 对啊，但 $AEHR 这边最近也没什么大新闻。不像 $AAOI 那种被激烈争论的股票，也就一两个人说 AEHR 会跌回 $25。
2026/06/17 02:26看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right). They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for. While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA. Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America). While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia. Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC… While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028. As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times. And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector). Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early. I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.
中文 · 翻译
不太理解为什么很多人对我的重仓多头 $AAOI 极度看空…… 从 $30 开始，一路涨到 $170 的时候都有人看空。（对，我就是觉得每个空头都错了，咱们看看最后谁对。）他们有稀缺的激光产能，这正是 $AMD 和其他超大规模数据中心在找的。而整个行业都被 $NVDA 卡着瓶颈。加上他们有美国本土的收发器供应链，用于大规模生产 800g/1.6T（管理层表示——这是全美最大的）。同时需求远超供给，而组装环节却外包到了亚洲。然后他们给出的指引是，2027 年上半年到下半年过渡期间，月营收 4.71 亿美元。这相当于年化经常性收入 56 亿美元，而市值才 135 亿美元…… 而且到了 2028 年更晚的时候，还有大量重要的爆发量会出现。至于波动，可能时不时会有 6 亿美元的活跃 ATM 增发被拿出来用。再加上时不时冒出来的随机看空帖子和宏观因素，导致更大波动（比如某分析师报告因为假的 CPO 延迟传闻看空 $LITE，结果把板块内其他股票也带下来了）。另外我们离那个时间点还有一年，所以时间线确实还有点早。自打 $NBIS 之后，我就没见过这么快的营收爬坡。
2026/06/16 07:30看多重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@cchronobreakk I don't need to open any new US stock position when all my ideas from memory to photonics like $AAOI are still playing out?
中文 · 翻译
@cchronobreakk 我没必要开任何新的美股仓位吧，毕竟我脑子里从存储到光电子这类我想到的题材都还在跑，比如 $AAOI。
2026/06/16 07:28看多信心分：5/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
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Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.
中文 · 翻译
回顾一下2025年那些天马行空的想法，挺有意思的。那个时候，$AAOI市值20亿美元，$LITE市值260亿美元，$AXTI市值5亿美元。现在： - AAOI市值153.7亿美元 - Lumentum市值744.7亿美元 - AXT市值72.4亿美元当时信息更少，毕竟还是个早期主题。当然，随着更多细节浮出水面，ASIC项目的一些细微差别可能被我忽略了。但方向上看，很高兴我的主题思路最终是正确的。看着现在市值30亿美元的光学多头标的，比如$SIVE，感觉就像是既视感。
2026/06/16 05:13看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
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Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.
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反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
2026/06/16 02:20看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
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New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply. And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce) Obvious CW laser beneficiaries: - $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level) - $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks) Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well. Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co). Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers). I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels. To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.
中文 · 翻译
最新消息称 $AMD 正在疯狂寻找 CW 激光器供应。并且正在洽谈大规模购买 CW 激光器的采购订单，以确保其产能不受 $NVDA 限制（Trendforce 消息）明显的 CW 激光器受益方： - $SIVE（AMD 找 GFS 做 CPO，Sivers 是参考激光级别） - $AAOI（Rosenblatt 分析师的调研确认） Lumentum/Coherent 的产能基本已经排到 2028 年了。 Lumentum 的 CW 产能尤其紧张，因为已经签了很多 EML 合同（所以他们可能正在向 Sumitomo/Furukawa 等厂商采购）。也许 Macom 和日本巨头还有多余产能。（声明：我持有 aaoi/sivers）。我去年就预测过，说过超大规模云厂商应该更向上游去锁定产能……在激光器层级、外延片层级、甚至 InP 衬底层级。这样才能不被 Nvidia 卡脖子。
2026/06/15 14:02看多重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.
中文 · 翻译
我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。但那些接盘的还不肯承认。我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。
2026/06/15 13:13提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.
中文 · 翻译
Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
2026/06/14 15:27提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
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这话估计会让很多人不爽：但说白了，技术分析就是交易员的占星术。它不过是对进场点的确认偏差 + 交易心理学。就像当初有人提前埋伏 $SPCE 的 $SPCX IPO，指望着散户因为交易心理搞错股票代码一样。 $SIVE 涨了 1900%，可不是因为有人拿什么“黄金交叉太空彗星喷火龙蜡烛图”忽悠你花 499 美元买的那个东西。它涨是因为市场在定价 $JBL、$GFS 宣布的未来营收。 $AXTI 涨了 8000%，也不是因为什么金色瀑布蜡烛图警报在 8 块钱时响起来了。它涨是因为 InP 衬底、ASP 提价博弈、出口管制、光子学需求等等等等。如果你想摸清其他韭菜心里在想什么，那用技术分析还行。但要是为了判断真正的上涨空间……拉倒吧。过去不知道多少个月人们一直给 $IREN 画 $120+ 的技术分析，但那些狗屁都没用，当你有 60 亿美元的 ATM 要先消化完。它靠的是主题（比如 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的关系），任何影响未来营收的新闻催化剂、预期、宏观消息、财报、流通盘动态等等。然后你就能推导出这家公司市值该是多少。所以，进场点嘛，你可以用 TA。但要判断股票往哪走，就把那些霸王龙欧米茄绿蜡烛指标扔窗外吧。
2026/06/12 04:26提及跳转 X 原文 →
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Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.
中文 · 翻译
随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
2026/06/11 16:13看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.
中文 · 翻译
市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
2026/06/11 14:58看多信心分：6/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@WENXIN229986 that's literally for you to decide. If you think they can hit $471m/month revenue near the end of H1 2027. Potential seems high to me with $AAOI at $13.4B. optical names are very volatile.
中文 · 翻译
@WENXIN229986 这完全是你自己决定的事。如果你觉得他们到 2027 年上半年末能实现月营收 4.71 亿美元，那 $AAOI 市值 134 亿美元的情况下，潜力在我看来挺高的。光通信标的波动性很大。
2026/06/11 03:18提及跳转 X 原文 →
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这周我自己的投资组合表现令人失望。目前今年迄今（YTD）仅上涨了 +3,612.10%。我在获利时会分享，但我也同样会经历大幅回撤！比如像 Foci/Shunsin $SOI, $AAOI 以及其他 CPO 相关标的。如果 Alpha 足够强，不管宏观大环境如何，这些股票都应该继续涨才对… 所以对我来说，这也是一个学习的过程，需要不断微调我自己的思路，以及理解市场是如何对不同主题/供应链的各个环节进行定价的。我只是边走边分享而已！
中文 · 翻译
原推为中文，无需翻译
2026/06/10 13:44看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Glad optical players from $LITE to $AAOI and $SIVE are slightly recovering as they should. The initial selloff was just stupid. https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
中文 · 翻译
高兴看到光学板块的股票，从 $LITE 到 $AAOI 和 $SIVE，都在按照应有的节奏小幅回升。一开始的那波下跌简直是无厘头。https://t.co/DsOdQAWf9i
2026/06/10 01:46提及跳转 X 原文 →
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@Matthew93889052 $AAOI revenues are dominated by pluggable. These are concurrent architectures happening in parallel, not one or the other. But maybe past 2029, we’ll likely see some pluggable revenue be cannablized
中文 · 翻译
@Matthew93889052 $AAOI 的营收主要来自可插拔模块。这些是并行发生的架构，而不是二选一。但也许到2029年之后，我们可能会看到部分可插拔营收被蚕食。
2026/06/09 14:57提及跳转 X 原文 →
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I don’t quite think photonics from $AAOI to $LITE or $SIVE are disappearing anytime soon… Just extremely volatile. Anyway, curious what other people are buying today? https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
中文 · 翻译
我并不觉得 $AAOI、$LITE 或 $SIVE 那边的 photonics 会很快消失… 只是波动实在太大了。不管怎样，好奇大家今天在买什么？https://t.co/Io9SVuq583
2026/06/09 06:44提及跳转 X 原文 →
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Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet. Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand. They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines. Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest. So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain. Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on. Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible? (dont have any open positions, just a thought)
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随便瞎想：$JBL 看起来是个挺有吸引力的长期标的，市值 $380 亿。我不太觉得市场已经把他们在 1.6T LRO 可插拔收发器业务上的潜力算进去了。特别是如果问题的关键是 "以 $SIVE 为瓶颈的 2027 年上半年，你能赚多少"，而不是 "需求够不够大"。他们已经铺好了庞大的供应链……而且接手了 $INTC 的可插拔产线。相比 $AAOI 靠融资砸钱建激光晶圆厂，这套模式似乎更可规模化——只要你手里有 $SIVE，再加上一堆不同的晶圆厂（比如 Win Semi 和其他）一起量产激光器，剩下的交给 $JBL 搞定。那你等于白捡了一个类似 Innolight 的架构（还带美国溢价），而且已经有一条经过超大规模客户验证的供应链。我现在没持仓，只是抛个想法，供别人去做研究。大概 2027 年上半年大家才会开始反应过来。可能 40% 的重新定价听起来合理？（目前没有任何持仓，纯粹是个想法）
2026/06/08 14:22看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
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@0xHyperEVM Yeah $MRVL was $87 or so, $ARM was $130. $87 -> $288 for Marvell $134 -> $347 for Arm not too shabby for my names? I still think many have a toooon of room to go like $AAOI.
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@0xHyperEVM 是啊，$MRVL 当时大概 $87，$ARM 是 $130。 $87 → $288 给 Marvell $134 → $347 给 Arm 我的这些票表现还不错吧？我还是觉得很多股还有大把空间，比如 $AAOI。
2026/06/07 10:48看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.
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不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键看结构。如果你是在做一笔 $6 亿的 ATM 融资，用来建激光器晶圆产能，在 2027 年上半年每个月 4.71 亿美元（较低市值区间）的节奏下跟 $AAOI 合作，那这就是增厚型的。如果你是为了满足纳斯达克上市要求，用 $SIVE 稀释 15%，然后把募集资金拿去做并购，那也是增厚型的。如果你跟 $IQE 一起稀释，通过跟 $MTSI 做私募来清掉过去的有毒债务，那也是增厚型的。但如果你是像 $IREN 那样，一次稀释 $60 亿，然后大概率趁 $SLNH / $BKKT 的托们每次拉升时把这些股抛到公开市场上——而这些小散里多数最后都归零了——那这就是掠夺性的。
2026/06/06 12:22提及跳转 X 原文 →
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If you’re curious: $4649 for 107,894,491 (100M+) impressions! All of this is going to dog rescues, will be doing large donations later! It’s ~$600 / dog rescued, so it scales proportionally with Serenity fan count! I also believe in making all my profits off $SIVE to $AAOI with stocks in the market, not off followers. Especially if I’m a good enough investor. So never felt the need to have high paywalls or do paid ads. (I’d do this anyway even if it weren’t monetized). I’m glad I can help things I care about just by posting ideas throughout the day for fun. And I’ve seen a lot of followers recently donate to their local shelters in my name. So genuinely thank you all for that, makes me happy.
中文 · 翻译
如果你好奇的话： $4649 对应 107,894,491（超过 1 亿！）次曝光。所有这些钱都会用于救助流浪狗，之后会做大额捐赠！大概是每救一只狗 $600，所以这个数额会随着 Serenity 粉丝数的增长等比扩大。我也相信我应该靠投资 $SIVE 到 $AAOI 在股市赚钱，而不是从粉丝身上赚钱。尤其是我自己觉得投资水平还够。所以我从来觉得没必要设高门槛付费或者做付费广告。（就算不赚钱我也会这么干）。能靠每天发发观点玩玩就帮到我在意的事，我很开心。而且我最近看到很多粉丝以我的名义向本地收容所捐款。所以真心谢谢你们，这让我很满足。
2026/06/06 04:40看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
How are all you regards on $RDDT down -99% after 2 red days? Is it that hard just to hold indiviudal stocks like $AAOI or $MRVL that are already high-beta? You can be right directionally, but wrong on short-term timing. One extra week or month makes a huge difference. https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
中文 · 翻译
你们怎么看 $RDDT 跌了 99% 连续两天收红？难道老老实实拿着 $AAOI 或 $MRVL 这类已经高贝塔的个股就那么难吗？你方向可能看对了，但短期时机选错了。多拿一周或一个月，差别就大了。 https://t.co/UrbqiRIIta
2026/06/05 15:58看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)
中文 · 翻译
市场回调的时候还挺有意思的。从 $NVDA 跌 4.87% 到 $MU 跌 7.03%。高贝塔票像 $PL 直接跌了 22.02%。挺好笑的，媒体总在那拼命解释，比如： "博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录暴跌" 博通预测需求旺盛到 2028 年，纯粹是编故事。AI 基建这边除了资本支出在增加，什么都没变。真正实质性的变化是加息概率上升了。但每年总有那么几次，在大涨新高之后冒出这类随机回调。我个人不会去押注美联储决策的概率，继续拿着现有公司指引的仓位（比如 $AAOI 2027 上半年 4.71 亿美元）。
2026/06/05 14:37看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above. Generally a fan of: - $SIVE (CPO lasers) - $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo) - Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA) - Shunsin (Packaging/Test) - Win Semi (foundry) - $TSEM (foundry) - $SOI (silicon photonics) - Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module) And a few others.
中文 · 翻译
$SIVE 是 #1，$AAOI 是 #2——刚才用词有误。整体上我比较喜欢： - $SIVE（CPO 激光器） - $AAOI（端到端可插拔 / CPO） - Foci（FAU + 无源器件 + $TSM COUPE / $NVDA） - Shunsin（封装 / 测试） - Win Semi（晶圆代工） - $TSEM（晶圆代工） - $SOI（硅光子） - Nextronics（CPO 连接器 / 散热模块）还有几家别的。
2026/06/05 14:32提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@awodias No, $AAOI is primarily pluggable exposure. But they have large exposure to CPO too, hence why I included the word photonics. Second favorite pure play CPO exposure would be FOCI for me.
中文 · 翻译
@awodias 不，$AAOI 主要是可插拔模块的敞口。但他们也大量涉及 CPO，所以我用了“光子学”这个词。第二看好的纯 CPO 敞口，对我来说是 FOCI。
2026/06/05 14:25提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
中文 · 翻译
$SIVE 是我除了 AAOI 以外最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。部分原因是它是瑞典公司，而且那边有喜剧演员给你提供乐子。今天，一家叫 Protean Funds 的非技术背景新对冲基金（很可能在做空）跑出来发言了。说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是凭空想象的。而就在这之后，$GFS 刚把 $SIVE 列为他们的参考激光器。（给新读者补充点背景：瑞典很多人只看过去 12 个月的营收，根本不理解未来增长这个概念）还有就是他们不懂，现在根本就没有任何 CPO 应用已经放量。所以瑞典的对冲基金一直在做空（其中很多基金，比如 Colosseum / Origo，都已经严重亏损了）。但是……对于技术派读者来说……从 2026 年下半年到 2028 年，市场空间在 1 年半内从接近 0 飙到 910 亿美元（我们现在已经进入下半年了）。整体市场空间达到 1410 亿美元（这也是 1 年半内翻了 10 倍以上）……而且 $SIVE 已经通过 $JBL 和其他未公开的可插拔厂家，打入了可插拔市场。对于这些瑞典本土公司来说，在 $SIVE 即将迎来史上最大拐点之前做空，结局恐怕不会太好看。放量只是时间问题。
2026/06/05 09:30看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$AAOI is my current favorite US long. I personally cost average recently whenever it dips to $150, or even $170. $JBL should preform really well once they’re 1.6T LRO goes mass production with $SIVE h1 2027 imo. Also talked about $RDDT today. $MRVL if you think it hits $1T and follow along Jensen.
中文 · 翻译
$AAOI 是我目前最看好的美股多头。我个人的策略是最近每次它跌到 $150、甚至 $170 时就分批加仓。 $JBL 一旦他们为 $SIVE 做的 1.6T LRO 在 2027 上半年进入量产，表现应该会非常好。今天也聊到了 $RDDT。 $MRVL 如果你认为它能达到 1 万亿美元市值，并且跟紧老黄（Jensen）的脚步。
2026/06/05 00:46看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$AAOI is one of the names I keep averaging up on since $28. Just from random shower thoughts… I feel like it’s just imminent to double or triple if they execute? There’s just too much demand for 800g/1.6T optical transceivers… Then this company is targeting the largest capacity in the US, with extreme vertical integration. I think something to keep in mind is sovereign DCs / T2 AI DCs which increase the demand for 800g as hyperscalers upgrade to 1.6T. So demand for 800g can actually keep increasing… Then there’s the analyst rumors of $AAOI conversations with $AMD / $NVDA. Which is kinda expected given everyone is getting their capacity allocated way into 2028. Nvidia always starts first and causes bottlenecks for everyone else as seen with EML, so not surprising if another hyperscaler learned their lesson this time? Also, everyone seems to be modeling lower ASP at scale. But if this ends up a major bottleneck H1 next year as expected… Could see unexpected price hikes + margin expansion across the board from $AAOI, $LITE, and others not really modeled in.
中文 · 翻译
$AAOI 是我从$28就开始持续加仓的标的之一。就是随便洗澡时瞎想……感觉如果他们执行到位，翻倍甚至翻三倍几乎是迟早的事？毕竟800G/1.6T光模块的需求实在太大了…… 而这公司瞄准的是美国最大产能，还搞了极端的垂直整合。我觉得有一点值得记住——主权数据中心 / Tier 2 AI 数据中心也会增加800G的需求，因为超大规模云厂商正在往1.6T升级。所以800G的需求实际上会持续增长…… 然后还有分析师传言说$AAOI在和$AMD / $NVDA洽谈。考虑到所有人都在抢产能排期到2028年，这其实挺符合预期的。英伟达总是先动手，然后像EML那样卡住其他人的瓶颈，所以如果这次有另一家超大规模云厂商吸取了教训，也不奇怪吧？另外，似乎所有人都在按规模量产后ASP下降来做模型。但如果明年上半年真的像预期那样成为主要瓶颈…… 那可能就会出现意料之外的涨价 + 利润率全面扩张，$AAOI、$LITE 以及其他标的都还没把这点计入模型。
2026/06/01 17:22看多信心分：8/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity. Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months. That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.
中文 · 翻译
我说过 $AAOI 是我最看好的美国光通信多头…… 今天涨了 +20.1%。如果你想找下一个 $SNDK，眼前就是。我认为 2027 年上半年进入下半年，对光子学玩家来说，很可能是那个巨大的拐点。我们只是稍微早了一点，现在刚进 2026 年下半年，大家都在扩产能。一个通用规律：如果你的股票不是太空或量子相关的，市场大约会提前 8 个月去定价。那个营收增长拐点迟早会来，问题只是什么时候来，我们等着就是了，同时也要接受期间的波动。
2026/06/01 15:19提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@StormDirac Yeah, it's extremely disingenuous to conflate different architectures, customers timelines. And try to profit off false information with $SIVE. But with Citron and $AAOI, didnt turn out very well shorting optical companies in supercycles.
中文 · 翻译
@StormDirac 没错，把不同的架构、客户时间线混为一谈，真是太不诚实了。还想利用虚假信息靠 $SIVE 捞一笔。不过，看看 Citron 和 $AAOI，在超级周期里做空光通信公司，结果都不怎么好。
2026/05/27 14:52提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Idk… I mean everyone called $AXTI a scam and now it’s up thousands of percent? Everyone called $AAOI management a scam and now that’s up 7x too. Institutions went out and criticized my $SOI long as well at $44 and now it’s $170… after they bought the float… Not sure if it’s short selling or trying to accumulate the float.
中文 · 翻译
不好说吧……当初人人都说 $AXTI 是骗局，结果现在涨了几千个百分点？当初人人都说 $AAOI 管理层是骗局，结果现在也涨了七倍。机构们还跑出来批评我在 $44 做多 $SOI，结果现在涨到 $170 了……还是在它们买完流通盘之后…… 不确定这到底是做空，还是想偷偷吸筹。
2026/05/27 14:48看多重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing up in the epiwafer companies like landmark. All the modeling with AXT was with former contracts made, not after $SNDK style ASP hikes.
中文 · 翻译
说实话这些预测我全都中了 > InP 衬底瓶颈 > 激光器瓶颈，市场因为这一点奖励了拥有激光器 fab 的 $AAOI。不过市场确实花了 6 个月才意识到 $AXTI 有多重要。还有瓶颈开始在 landmark 这类外延片公司显现出来。所有对 AXT 建的模型都是用之前签的合同算的，而不是 $SNDK 那种涨价模式之后的数据。
2026/05/27 03:38提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Wow, 400,000 followers! Thank you everyone. I find it fun to share ideas with everyone for free from $TSEM to $AAOI. And especially if they end up directionally right + help others build their own conviction. https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq
中文 · 翻译
哇塞，40 万关注了！谢谢大家。从 $TSEM 到 $AAOI，我很享受免费跟所有人分享想法这个过程。尤其是当这些方向判断最终对了，还能帮别人建立起自己的信念感，那就更好了。https://t.co/DeEnV6SAkq
2026/05/26 11:57提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$SIVE is the most compelling CPO exposure stock to me. Despite the volatility. You probably won’t find something like this again until the next architectural shift in photonics years later. Out of the core laser suppliers, they’re all tens of billions? $AAOI = $15B Furukawa = $26B $MTSI = $29B Sumitomo = $59B $COHR = $73B $LITE = $74B Then there’s $SIVE as one of the core CPO laser chokepoints at $2.3B MC. Earnings are usually confirmation of all the little volume ramp hints like Jabil fireside transcripts for 1.6T LRO. And most returns are typically made before, not after official confirmation is just a rule of thumb.
中文 · 翻译
$SIVE 在我看来是最有吸引力的 CPO 概念股。虽然它波动很大。但你可能要到几年后光子学领域下一次架构变革时，才能再找到这样的标的。核心激光器供应商里，它们市值不都是几百亿吗？ $AAOI = 150 亿美元古河电工 = 260 亿美元 $MTSI = 290 亿美元住友电工 = 590 亿美元 $COHR = 730 亿美元 $LITE = 740 亿美元然后 $SIVE 作为核心 CPO 激光器瓶颈之一，市值只有 23 亿美元。财报通常只是确认那些小信号——比如 Jabil 电话会纪要里关于 1.6T LRO 的量产线索。而大部分收益往往是在正式确认之前赚到的，而不是之后，这只是一条经验法则。
2026/05/26 00:47提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
确实如此！如果你不能将整个光通信产业链脱口而出，从上游的InP（磷化铟）衬底，路向下游直到光模块成品制造商… 那说明你读我写的东西还不够多。不过，很高兴看到我关于 $SOI 或 $AAOI 的许多观点，能帮助大家建立起属于自己的投资信念与逻辑。
中文 · 翻译
原推为中文，无需翻译
2026/05/25 16:08提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?
中文 · 翻译
$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
2026/05/24 02:38看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make. The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums. Just annoying there's a $600m dilution affecting near term prices.
中文 · 翻译
没错，$AAOI 确实具备 800G/1.6T 光收发器从端到端的量产能力，而在如今这个超大规模云厂商会抢购 $AAOI 或其他光学厂商能造出的任何东西的时代，这一点相当关键。而且他们试图把所有环节都放在美国本土完成 + 还能拿到税收抵免（比如德州），这本身就该带来估值溢价。就是有点烦人，那笔 6 亿美元的稀释正在影响短期股价。
2026/05/23 12:28看多信心分：4/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
华人社区最近的赞誉让我感到受宠若惊！我认为任何空头被打爆，都只是我单纯喜欢像 $AAOI 这样的股票而产生的无意间的副作用。希望也能与更多的华人社区朋友互动（最近我在 X 上跟日本和韩国的网友互动得比较多）。
中文 · 翻译
原推为中文，无需翻译
2026/05/23 06:12看多信心分：9/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them. So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp. $SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others. Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers. Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend. But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light. Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too. I like them both for different reasons.
中文 · 翻译
$AAOI 更偏向纯粹的制造规模，我极度看好他们。所以在我看来它更像 Furukawa + Innolight？因此极度看好其营收增长。 $SIVE 则是纯粹独一无二的 IP，主要的 CPO 超大规模供应商似乎都在用他们，比如 Ayar/Celestial 等。连 $JBL 都与 Sivers 在 1.6T LRO 上建立了突破性的护城河。 Sivers 的上限是天花板，未来他们也可以像 $COHR / $AAOI 那样通过资本开支实现垂直整合。但他们目前的主要重点应该是尽可能打造最大的 IP 护城河 + 将制造外包以保持轻资本。以后随时可以垂直整合组装和激光器制造。我因为不同的原因看好这两家。
2026/05/22 14:12提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@PronologieFR $AAOI literally went from $28 to $170. That was a brrr. But if you're talking in short term timeframes, there's a $600m dilution ongoing, which caps upside.
中文 · 翻译
@PronologieFR $AAOI 真的从 $28 涨到了 $170。那波真是疯狂。但如果你说的是短期时间框架，目前正在进行一笔 $6 亿的稀释，这会限制向上空间。