GFSGlobalFoundries Inc

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1. 08/25/2026, 16:06UTCBullConviction: 5/10View on X →
   @jusmentrades uhh, pretty sure $GFS is a 2027-2028 type optical rerating story... fyi they're like 11.5 fwd p/e ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term, so idk about betting on a 1 1/2 month timeframe in 2026. https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
2. 08/25/2026, 09:46UTCMentionView on X →
   Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.
3. 08/24/2026, 19:16UTCMentionView on X →
   Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD
4. 08/12/2026, 08:13UTCMentionView on X →
   - Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.
5. 08/09/2026, 01:32UTCMentionView on X →
   I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.
6. 07/29/2026, 17:11UTCBullView on X →
   @4intheflames I don't own $GFS, but I'm personally it's surprised it's still down on the news US Gov is taking a direct stake in them for advancing CPO. Surprising to say the least, given everyone remembers $INTC as the latest foundry the US Gov liked.
7. 07/29/2026, 17:07UTCMentionView on X →
   US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...
8. 07/23/2026, 21:56UTCMentionView on X →
   Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.
9. 07/21/2026, 09:14UTCMentionView on X →
   It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.
10. 07/16/2026, 14:54UTCMentionView on X →
    Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
11. 07/09/2026, 18:44UTCMentionView on X →
    Three new $SIVE insider purchases today. Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today. This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director. Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence. Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term. Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).
12. 07/08/2026, 13:05UTCMentionView on X →
    For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables. - $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more. O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say. Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources. And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028. How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is: It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked). For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out. The main area of interest is downstream IP acquisition for TAM expansion, so I think that opportunity pipeline undersells forward growth going forward.
13. 07/07/2026, 14:42UTCMentionView on X →
    $SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion. And it's literally trading less than $POET for some reason. All while CW lasers are extremely bottlenecked to the point $LITE can't make enough. Then they got a considerable amount of oversubscribed funding for fabless laser ramp recently. Comfortable long for me, probably one of the stocks that way overshot selloff imo.
14. 07/02/2026, 17:22UTCMentionView on X →
    Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable players, potentially Eoptolink/Innolight mass producing pluggables with $SIVE as lasers is revenue. 6. $POET entering volume production is revenue.
15. 07/02/2026, 17:12UTCMentionView on X →
    Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell. $SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs. With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term. Then $GFS, Ayar, and many other players are volume ramping later in 2027. Sivers also confirmed intent to complete NASDAQ Listing in the next few quarters. It's probably my highest conviction photonics long, everything seems to be coming into place.
16. 07/02/2026, 17:07UTCMentionView on X →
    @ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days. They're also capable of doing the opposite. Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.
17. 06/30/2026, 17:21UTCMentionView on X →
    $SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership. My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors. This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GFS on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support. Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment). A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.
18. 06/26/2026, 10:02UTCMentionView on X →
    Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential. In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE: - $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers - $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE - $AMD went to $GFS for CPO - $SIVE announced CW with TFLN - Ayar (using $SIVE) raised a bunch for volume ramp and joined $NVDA NVLink ecosystem - AlChip private placement with Amazon, which is Ayar's primary ASIC partner (hinting at Trainium wins) - O-Net new ELS partnership with $SIVE for mass production - $POET new purchase order with a customer that stated their initial clients is a "top-3 hyperscaper" - New CHIPS Act nondilutive funding - "LIDAR customer will ramp production starting Q4 2026," which is likely $AEVA - New information discovery likely linking $SIVE customer to $MRVL Celestial (not through Poet), Lightelligence, and Lightelligence. - New information discovery about Ayar removing Lumentum / Macom from website and likely making Sivers primary source - More pluggable players on top of $JBL. - $NVDA bottlenecking CW laser supply and $AMD + other CSPs going around signing LTAs - NASDAQ listing planned And more.
19. 06/25/2026, 16:15UTCMentionView on X →
    oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
20. 06/25/2026, 15:26UTCBullView on X →
    @RJCcapital Bruh $SIVE is $GFS reference laser, $JBL 1.6T pluggable laser, Ayar CPO scale up laser, $POET scale out laser, O-Net ELS laser. And many other undisclosed partnerships. Watch and learn.
21. 06/22/2026, 22:38UTCBullConviction: 5/10View on X →
    Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
22. 06/21/2026, 11:16UTCMentionView on X →
    Mapping like - JP Morgan fireside conference for Jabil timelines + Quotes around 1.6T LRO - Sivers 2025 annual around $POET various press releases with $GFS and others. - Old investor customers decks mapped with different investment rounds of cpo startups at the time All merged together into a thesis.
23. 06/21/2026, 11:04UTCMentionView on X →
    That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.
24. 06/21/2026, 07:53UTCMentionView on X →
    I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.
25. 06/18/2026, 15:11UTCMentionView on X →
    @degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.
26. 06/15/2026, 12:31UTCMentionView on X →
    $SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.
27. 06/14/2026, 15:27UTCMentionView on X →
    This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
28. 06/11/2026, 09:54UTCMentionView on X →
    Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).
29. 06/09/2026, 11:52UTCBullConviction: 6/10View on X →
    Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.
30. 06/09/2026, 11:06UTCBullConviction: 5/10View on X →
    @TalentActivity I do really like $GFS, $JBL, and others tied with $SIVE. They’re all just kinda large by now, and less chance to triple. If I were running a hedge fund I’d pick up Jabil, it I’m personally maximizing returns + don’t like options on higher IV equities.
31. 06/09/2026, 07:49UTCMentionView on X →
    Many work against the interest of retail investors. Especially as JP Morgan / US institutions are trying to buy up the float. You have a company funded with CHIPS Act, in major hyperscaler supply chains from $NVDA to others, powering Ayar for CPO, $JBL for pluggables. And now the reference laser for $GFS. With closest ramp with $AEVA / $POET likely coming next. And following that likely US NASDAQ Listing. Sivers is one of the most compelling photonics companies, and pretty sure all the deals established that already.
32. 06/08/2026, 11:57UTCMentionView on X →
    @LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.
33. 06/05/2026, 14:25UTCMentionView on X →
    $SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
34. 06/04/2026, 08:45UTCMentionView on X →
    It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.
35. 06/04/2026, 07:15UTCMentionView on X →
    $SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.
36. 06/03/2026, 08:07UTCMentionView on X →
    its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.
37. 06/03/2026, 07:54UTCMentionView on X →
    $NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers = laser supplier to entire NVLink CPO ecosystem. People were doubting Sivers connections to Nvidia, but Ayar joining is clearest tie of $SIVE to $NVDA.
38. 06/03/2026, 07:50UTCMentionView on X →
    GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.
39. 06/02/2026, 14:19UTCMentionView on X →
    $LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
40. 06/02/2026, 07:55UTCMentionView on X →
    DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.
41. 06/02/2026, 06:23UTCBullConviction: 8/10View on X →
    @wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.
42. 06/02/2026, 06:08UTCBullConviction: 7/10View on X →
    @StormDirac “Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform.” Woah that’s structurally massive news with $SIVE and $GFS.
43. 06/01/2026, 20:01UTCMentionView on X →
    -> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.
44. 05/27/2026, 15:07UTCMentionView on X →
    They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream
45. 05/24/2026, 20:30UTCMentionView on X →
    @Jimmy4466597097 ~1/4th of their entire company are PHDs. Sivers is primarily doing novel IP development. Then using $GFS / Win to scale without capex + or needing headcount. You would need a lot of more headcount for stuff like assembly (without doctorates).