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- English · 原文@RJCcapital Bruh $SIVE is $GFS reference laser, $JBL 1.6T pluggable laser, Ayar CPO scale up laser, $POET scale out laser, O-Net ELS laser. And many other undisclosed partnerships. Watch and learn.中文 · 翻译@RJCcapital 老哥，$SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器，$JBL 的 1.6T 可插拔激光器，Ayar 的 CPO 规模化激光器，$POET 的扩展激光器，还有 O-Net 的 ELS 激光器。 还有很多没公开的合作。 看着学吧。
- English · 原文Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS中文 · 翻译哇，$TSEM 今天涨了 10% 以上。 好日子，回头想想三月份就该把它弄成我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这些晶圆代工厂最近涨得飞起。https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
- English · 原文Mapping like - JP Morgan fireside conference for Jabil timelines + Quotes around 1.6T LRO - Sivers 2025 annual around $POET various press releases with $GFS and others. - Old investor customers decks mapped with different investment rounds of cpo startups at the time All merged together into a thesis.中文 · 翻译大致像这样： - 摩根大通关于 Jabil 时间线的炉边会议 + 涉及约 1.6T LRO 的引述 - Sivers 2025 年度相关，$POET 与 $GFS 等多家公司的各种新闻稿 - 结合当时不同轮次 CPO 初创公司融资情况的旧版投资者推介材料 所有这些汇总起来，形成了一套投资逻辑。
- English · 原文That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.中文 · 翻译这是一种误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光供应商，不仅仅是 CPO 规模化的配套。 可插拔、规模化 CPO（Scale out CPO）、Scale up CPO、NPO 等等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 联手开挂，用 CW 激光器开发出了 1.6T 光收发器。 有效绕开了 EML 瓶颈，甚至还提升了能效。 从 Jabil 管理层的说法来看，他们打造了一个"相对显著的护城河"。 所以在下一代 1.6T 可插拔收发器上，Sivers 看起来立刻就会被用上。 市场也忽略了这一细节：Jabil 发布公告后，其他可插拔厂商也找上门了，SIVE 现在正在跟他们合作（很可能是联合开发、认证阶段）。 没有太多做光收发器的厂商是像 Lumentum 那样垂直整合的（想想：Innolight/eoptolink 之类的）。 所以这些都是在推进中的开发项目，只是还没公开披露，随时可能出新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的规模化 CPO，比如 $POET 这类玩家，$SIVE 是它们的激光供应商。 - Scale up CPO 则是在 2027 年下半年，来自 Ayar 和英伟达的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，那才是光器件玩家们的主要放量阶段。 但这时候，从供应链图谱来看，$SIVE 看起来碾压了其他所有对手。 因为他们很可能从很久以前就开始跟 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等公司一起研发设计，那时这些公司还很小。 而且还有像这样的： 对于 $GFS 这类代工厂来说，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 这还没算上 O-Net 这样的大公司正在用 $SIVE 构建 ELS，很可能是面向亚洲超大规模数据中心供应链的。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器隘口长线标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，新的光架构里到处都有他们的影子。
- English · 原文I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.中文 · 翻译最近好多人在问我 OE Solutions (138080) 这家公司。 这是我目前的研究和想法： 这是一家韩国的小型光收发器公司，跟 $AAOI 有点像。 而且他们已经成为全球为数不多的 EML 玩家之一（比如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），手握稀缺的 100G EML 激光器产能，专门用于 800G/1.6T。 OE 看起来不光想造 EML，还想做完整的收发器。他们已经有了成品 ELSFP CPO 产品，配上 UHP CW 激光器，Q3 开始送样。 同样地，OE 似乎也在整完整的 ELSFP 方案，而不是只卖 CW 激光晶粒，这样能抢到更多市场份额。 所以你可以把它理解成"韩国版的 AAOI"，但用的是 EML 而不是 CW，产能和认证方面还差点火候，目前是在追赶世界其他玩家。 时间线上来看： 1. 23dBm 制冷的 ELSFP 样品，2026 年 Q3 开始送样 2. 800G 的销售基础，2027 年 1.6T "全面发力" 3. 2027 年 H2 末、2028 年 H1 及以后，ELSFP 可能进入放量生产 而且从他们 2025 年投资者简报片段来看，似乎还在搞 200G EML 能力——简报里提到"100GBaud EML / 200G PAM"。考虑到他们的 IP 和 demo，这个方向挺有戏。 ELS 才刚发布不久，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器大概率也是 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的光子学国家队，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和那些更大的玩家。 （持仓披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 仓位。这只是基本面研究，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。） 关于 OE Solutions 的估值： 1. 这些增长方向目前似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人真正理解他们在做什么。 3. 良率数据有些不清晰。 1. 客户方面：现在其实正处于 EML/CW 激光器大缺货周期，所以任何独立的产能都会被抢着要。我个人觉得他们找客户不难。我甚至认为他们造出来的东西可能都会被扫货，还会获得韩国政府的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为市值小 + 韩国上市，很多美国机构根本够不上门槛。我也觉得没多少人真正理解他们在搞什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 公布的晶圆/模组利用率很低（我记得大概有 31% 的产能闲置），所以他们在需要砸资本开支之前，光靠现有的产能就能产生可观的收入。 至于 EML/CW 以及其他良率，我也不太确定。可能得直接去问公司。 这是不是一家随便的烂公司？不是。人家做光收发器已经超过 20 年了，在美国和荷兰都有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长方向看起来要到明年才爆发，而且主要取决于产能和良率。 我个人觉得，如果 EML/CW 技术被收购的话，它的价值可能远超目前市值。 尤其是被那些想垂直整合 EML（用于可插拔模块）和 CW 激光器（用于 CPO）的大玩家收购。 市场可能在等 Q3 送样后的认证结果或者营收预期公告，才敢下定论。 总结我的想法： 去年就有朋友讨论过这家公司，当时可能太早了。两个月前看到评论区热闹起来，依然太早。 我现在还是觉得早，但到了 Q3 和 Q4 可能就会变得有意思起来。我个人认为它的风险比 $SIVE 这种深度嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和一堆超大规模供应商的 CPO 大玩家要高得多。$SIVE 还有 Win Semi 等公司在帮忙摊薄量产风险。 而 OE Solutions 看起来更像是一个新手玩家，想照着 $AAOI 的模式去造光收发器，但走的又是主权 EML 和 CW 激光器路线，面向 CPO 产品。 现在关于客户和量产爬坡的问题还有很多没解答，这本身就有实质风险。 但如果你相信韩国能建立 800G/1.6T 收发器 EML 供应链，以及带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP 方案。 那么 OE Solutions 或许值得一看。我还在继续研究这家公司，目前只是初步想法。
- English · 原文@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.中文 · 翻译@degenlurker_ $AAOI 和 $SIVEF 是我之前猜的、最有可能跟 $AMD 签大额 CW 激光器采购协议的两家公司。看接下来怎么走吧。 基于 aaoi 和 amd 的分析师渠道调研。以及 amd 跟 gfs/sivers 的参考激光器。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
- English · 原文This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.中文 · 翻译这话估计会让很多人不爽： 但说白了，技术分析就是交易员的占星术。 它不过是对进场点的确认偏差 + 交易心理学。 就像当初有人提前埋伏 $SPCE 的 $SPCX IPO，指望着散户因为交易心理搞错股票代码一样。 $SIVE 涨了 1900%，可不是因为有人拿什么“黄金交叉太空彗星喷火龙蜡烛图”忽悠你花 499 美元买的那个东西。 它涨是因为市场在定价 $JBL、$GFS 宣布的未来营收。 $AXTI 涨了 8000%，也不是因为什么金色瀑布蜡烛图警报在 8 块钱时响起来了。 它涨是因为 InP 衬底、ASP 提价博弈、出口管制、光子学需求等等等等。 如果你想摸清其他韭菜心里在想什么，那用技术分析还行。 但要是为了判断真正的上涨空间……拉倒吧。 过去不知道多少个月人们一直给 $IREN 画 $120+ 的技术分析，但那些狗屁都没用，当你有 60 亿美元的 ATM 要先消化完。 它靠的是主题（比如 $LITE 到 $AAOI 的关系），任何影响未来营收的新闻催化剂、预期、宏观消息、财报、流通盘动态等等。 然后你就能推导出这家公司市值该是多少。 所以，进场点嘛，你可以用 TA。 但要判断股票往哪走，就把那些霸王龙欧米茄绿蜡烛指标扔窗外吧。
- English · 原文Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).中文 · 翻译为什么我一直被问到这些问题！！！ $XFAB 正在打造一个硅光子学代工厂，作为 $TSEM 和 $GFS 的替代品。而且有欧洲支持它，再加上 $NVDA 的评估。 这需要时间……比如到 2026 年 10 月，开发应该能完成。 然后 2027 年产量会逐步扩大，到 2028 年进入（大规模量产），毕竟他们从 2023 年就开始搞了。 现在所有人都觉得它就是个低迷的汽车供应商。好在欧洲公司嘛，大家习惯看 TTM 营收，而不是盯着未来增长。 所以它就这么莫名其妙地领导了欧盟打造一个 $TSEM 式的硅光子学代工厂及供应链，市值大约 €11 亿？ 日月光（ASE）的研发总监和其他人都把它列为未来的 CPO 路线。 我可能在很多事情上都太早了，但当然大部分的风险回报就来自一点信念，赌它能商业化。 不然大家也可以直接选 Tower 这条更稳妥的路（我之前也写过一篇关于它的分析，也挺喜欢的）。
- English · 原文@TalentActivity I do really like $GFS, $JBL, and others tied with $SIVE. They’re all just kinda large by now, and less chance to triple. If I were running a hedge fund I’d pick up Jabil, it I’m personally maximizing returns + don’t like options on higher IV equities.中文 · 翻译@TalentActivity 我确实很喜欢 $GFS、$JBL，还有跟 $SIVE 有关的其他标的。 不过它们现在体量都不小了，翻三倍的机会没那么大。 如果我是在管对冲基金，我会买 Jabil，但个人角度我在追求收益最大化，而且不喜欢做高波动率股票的期权。
- English · 原文Many work against the interest of retail investors. Especially as JP Morgan / US institutions are trying to buy up the float. You have a company funded with CHIPS Act, in major hyperscaler supply chains from $NVDA to others, powering Ayar for CPO, $JBL for pluggables. And now the reference laser for $GFS. With closest ramp with $AEVA / $POET likely coming next. And following that likely US NASDAQ Listing. Sivers is one of the most compelling photonics companies, and pretty sure all the deals established that already.中文 · 翻译很多动作都对散户投资者不利。 尤其是当摩根大通 / 美国机构正试图买断流通股的时候。 你有一家靠《芯片法案》资金支持的公司，身处从 $NVDA 到其他巨头的主要超大规模数据中心供应链中，为 Ayar 提供 CPO 方案，为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块。现在又成了 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商。 接下来最接近放量的很可能是 $AEVA / $POET。再之后，大概率就会在美国纳斯达克上市。 Sivers 是光子学领域最引人注目的公司之一，我相当确定已有的所有交易都已经证明了这一点。
- English · 原文@LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.中文 · 翻译@LightLogix 我的意思是…… > $SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器 > $SIVE 提供 1.6T LRO 激光方案，配合 $JBL 以及众多可插拔厂商 > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > 很可能是 $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial 搭配 $NVDA NVLink > 大概率 $SIVE 也会进入 $AMD 的 CPO 生态系统 这是个非常吸引人的做多逻辑。
- English · 原文$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是我除了 AAOI 以外最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，而且那边有喜剧演员给你提供乐子。 今天，一家叫 Protean Funds 的非技术背景新对冲基金（很可能在做空）跑出来发言了。 说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是凭空想象的。 而就在这之后，$GFS 刚把 $SIVE 列为他们的参考激光器。 （给新读者补充点背景：瑞典很多人只看过去 12 个月的营收，根本不理解未来增长这个概念） 还有就是他们不懂，现在根本就没有任何 CPO 应用已经放量。 所以瑞典的对冲基金一直在做空（其中很多基金，比如 Colosseum / Origo，都已经严重亏损了）。 但是……对于技术派读者来说……从 2026 年下半年到 2028 年，市场空间在 1 年半内从接近 0 飙到 910 亿美元（我们现在已经进入下半年了）。 整体市场空间达到 1410 亿美元（这也是 1 年半内翻了 10 倍以上）……而且 $SIVE 已经通过 $JBL 和其他未公开的可插拔厂家，打入了可插拔市场。 对于这些瑞典本土公司来说，在 $SIVE 即将迎来史上最大拐点之前做空，结局恐怕不会太好看。 放量只是时间问题。
- English · 原文It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.中文 · 翻译大公司想随便收购像 $SIVE 这种拿了《芯片法案》资金的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种有政府背景的，其实有点难度。 有些风投部门有时候也会错过机会。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会在六月的投票后入股 $SIVE。
- English · 原文its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.中文 · 翻译供应链已经确认了。我之前就知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资方，所以我觉得他们应该是想在 NVLink 生态这类方向上寻求战略合作。 $AMD 也投了 Ayar，那 $AMD 找 $GFS 做 CPO 这事儿，再加上 Ayar 这边的关系，基本上把 $SIVE 串起来就很容易推理了。 联发科和 $INTC 原来也是 Ayar 的投资方，联发科还在做谷歌的 ASIC。 所以按这个逻辑推下去，接下来可能很快就会有 $SIVE 进入 $GOOGL 供应链的更多消息。
- English · 原文$NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers = laser supplier to entire NVLink CPO ecosystem. People were doubting Sivers connections to Nvidia, but Ayar joining is clearest tie of $SIVE to $NVDA.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 的 CPO 生态系 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天刚加入） $SIVE 百分百确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 有高置信度是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 全都用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是它们的参考激光。 Sivers = 整个 NVLink CPO 生态系的激光供应商。 之前有人质疑 Sivers 跟 Nvidia 的关系，但 Ayar 加入就最清楚地说明了 $SIVE 和 $NVDA 之间的关联。
- English · 原文GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.中文 · 翻译猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
- English · 原文$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm中文 · 翻译$LITE 靠着 EML 和可插拔模块，在两年内从 $3B 涨到 $75B 完成了第一波光通信行情。 我的观点是 $SIVE 也能从 $3B 起步做到同样的事，凭借 CPO/可插拔模块和连续波激光器。 Sivers 加上 GFS 的 SiPH 参考激光器消息，再加上今天 54% 的涨幅。 这才只是刚刚开始。 https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.中文 · 翻译@wangxindian @StormDirac 我感觉大家还没意识到 $GFS 这条新闻的分量。 它可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更根本性地具有突破性。 因为所有经过 GFS 硅光子的公司，像是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA，默认的参考设计里都嵌着 $SIVE。
- English · 原文@StormDirac “Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform.” Woah that’s structurally massive news with $SIVE and $GFS.中文 · 翻译@StormDirac "Sivers Semiconductors 的激光阵列将被集成到基于 GF 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。" 哇，这对 $SIVE 和 $GFS 来说，是结构性的重大消息。
- English · 原文-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.中文 · 翻译-> 拿下IP -> 就等CPO起飞 $SIVE 是光子学领域的激光要塞，并且已获得如下公开验证： - $GFS（据演示材料，是两家公开激光供应商之一，与 $LITE 一起供应 CPO） - $JBL（用Sivers构建的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”） - 整个公司获得的CHIPS法案资金 最高可见度方面： -> Ayar 是最大的CPO玩家，主要货源来自 $SIVE，预计2027年放量。 -> $POET 是另一个近期的CPO量产玩家，与Sivers有非常高的可见度。 开源情报梳理： $MRVL Celestial（直接，非通过Poet）、Lightmatter、Lightelligence，都是Sivers的高置信度客户。 $SIVE 还在与更多光收发器厂商进行开发和认证，紧随Jabil之后。 感觉它们会出现在每个角落。 我不确定大家是否意识到，一家市值不到20亿美元的激光公司，在2027年放量前夕获得这么多认证，有多不寻常…… 尤其当其他激光公司都在150亿到700亿美元的估值区间交易。 只需要可插拔模块来填补营收缺口，撑到2027年下半年（CPO规模化）。 然后照着 $LITE 的剧本，让每一颗卖出的激光器都更值钱，从而在两个市场中捕获更多TAM。 - 在整体光学领域，未来一年半内TAM为1410亿美元（高盛数据，10倍空间）。 - 而CPO的TAM将在未来一年半内从0增长到810亿美元。 所以，通过向下游收购IP，一夜之间就能轻松把营收机会翻倍。 更多只是等待的游戏，我认为 $SIVE 相对于未来的营收潜力，现在非常被低估。 如果它是一家硅谷的私营初创公司，今天可能值40到60亿美元。 只需要在纳斯达克上市，用溢价来弥合这个差距。
- English · 原文They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream中文 · 翻译他们傻吗？ $JBL 宣布需求大于供应，这预示着 $SIVE 的激光器将进入大规模量产。 Ayar 筹集了 5 亿美元用于量产放量，并放弃了 $LITE 和 $MTSI，转投 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。 $AMD 选择了 $GFS，并且有很大概率在它们的 CPO 计划中使用 Sivers 的产品。 Sivers 还暗示了并购的可能，这会大幅扩展下游的可触达市场。
- English · 原文@Jimmy4466597097 ~1/4th of their entire company are PHDs. Sivers is primarily doing novel IP development. Then using $GFS / Win to scale without capex + or needing headcount. You would need a lot of more headcount for stuff like assembly (without doctorates).中文 · 翻译@Jimmy4466597097 他们全公司大约有四分之一都是博士。Sivers 主要做的是新颖的知识产权开发。 然后借助 $GFS / Win 来扩大规模，不需要资本支出，也不用增多少人手。 像组装这类活（不需要博士学历），你得用更多的人手。