GFS格芯
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
GFS 整体偏多（看多 8 · 看空 0）
GlobalFoundries (GFS) 在2027-2028年有望迎来长期重估，目前远期市盈率具吸引力。
最近发言：2026/08/25 16:06 · 信心分 5/10
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历史观点（45 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文@jusmentrades uhh, pretty sure $GFS is a 2027-2028 type optical rerating story... fyi they're like 11.5 fwd p/e ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term, so idk about betting on a 1 1/2 month timeframe in 2026. https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR中文 · 翻译@jusmentrades 嗯……我相当确定 $GFS 属于那种光学业务到 2027-2028 年会重估的故事…… 告诉你一声，他们 2028 年末的远期市盈率大概是 11.5 倍，长期来看是 7.5 倍，所以说实话，我不知道在 2026 年去赌一个半月的行情是怎么回事。https://t.co/V9i8BNhlyR
- English · 原文Lot of people were wondering about $SIVE earnings in 2 days. What I'm watching out for: 1. I'm hoping for more visibility on photonics co-development/qualifications/contracts. -> $AAOI stated multiple customers approaching them for CPO lasers (but had to turn them away) -> $MTSI stated many customers approaching them for CW capacity (but doesn't come online until H2 2027) So read through for a company serving as $GFS reference laser, $JBL for pluggables (ex. intel siph), to Ayar for CPO. And in a merchant position: -> with independent CW DFB supply (with Win semi) -> CPO-grade lasers. Is incredibly positive for more customers approaching Sivers. 2. Ongoing developments turning into volume -> I'm most excited about $JBL, which would probably be the main revenue ramp in H1 2027. -> $AEVA is likely much smaller in comparison, but should be a contributor H2 2026. -> Ayar and optical I/O players already stated 2028 for HVM, so not really expecting much there. -> Co-developments from their other pluggable players (from last ER) turning into qualifications -> volume). Aside from that: 3. NASDAQ listing -> We already got timelines for that "next few quarters", so it's not really a focus to narrow that down further. Always nice to get an update. 4. Financials -> Again, current financials aren't a focus for qualification-cycle players. Just a heads up, there's some one-time accounting this quarter, which affects things optically. Main thing is volume ramps for future quarters. -> revenue pipeline increase -> any early volume contracts signed Balance sheet concerns should be cleared now given their recent $70m fundraising + bootstrap dilution overhang gone. Bonus cookies: -> Any information about allocations secured "eg. we have substantial CW capacity secured -> would be extremely high signal given current shortages. -> Reiterate demand that AOI, Macom, Lumentum, Coherent stated. "eg. any capacity we get would be filled from demand" $AAOI had their massive $30 -> $220 rally after they stated like $471M expected capacity in 2027, and reiterated that into revenue guidance. (but then had a lot of ATMs) An ambitious bull case + full capacity revenue statement for future timelines like H1 2028 for Sivers would be nice, but not expected. A further re-rating would help for M&A with a Cloud Light type acquisition for revenue acceleration in future earnings. Obviously Sivers has other volume ramps, but I think photonics is what the market is primarily underwriting. Regardless, excited for what's up and coming.中文 · 翻译很多人都在好奇 $SIVE 两天后的财报。 我关注的点是： 1. 我希望光子学的共同开发/认证/合同方面能有更多明确信息。 → $AAOI 说有多个客户找他们要 CPO 激光器（但他们不得不拒绝了） → $MTSI 说有很多客户找他们要 CW 产能（但要
- English · 原文Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE. Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers. VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary. Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats. Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations... Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD中文 · 翻译问得好，主要还是围绕着 $SIVE 的第三方评论和实际行动。 Ayar 的举动对我来说最有说服力，他们把 $LITE 和 $MTSI 从官网的供应链版块移除了。然后在激光供应商那里只提了 Sivers 一家。 Ayar 的一位副总裁还说过，Sivers 对于“驱动我们的光 I/O 解决方案至关重要”，这可是个非常强劲的信号。 然后还有 $JBL，他们在选择 Sivers 之后，做了一个 1.6T LRO，这非常少见。还在一次炉边谈话中夸耀他们的技术护城河。 接着是 $GFS，他们也选择了 Sivers 作为参考激光，并且在他们的演示文稿中重点介绍了 Sivers… 感觉所有行业领先的公司都因为某种原因在推进与 Sivers 的合作？我猜这些领先公司都做了尽职调查的。
- English · 原文- Because newer 1.6T optical transceivers and CPO volumes haven't ramped yet. $SIVE is targeting all the next generation optical shifts. This comes from a misunderstanding of architectural shifts, you won't get 9 figure revenue in 2024 if customer CPO scale up deployments start in 2028. - $SIVE has 130+ employees and if I remember correctly, 1/4th to 1/3d were PHDs. Lot of what they do is IP and they use Win Semi, external foundries for volume ramp. If they did assembly like $FN or $COHR, you would see employee count balloon. Not quite sure why you say a customer supplying to $JBL, $GFS, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers is a hopeless case. Probably one of the most unique ones I've seen.中文 · 翻译- 因为新款 1.6T 光模块和 CPO 的出货量还没起来。$SIVE 正在瞄准所有下一代光学技术迭代。 这源于对架构转变的误解，如果客户 CPO 的大规模部署要到 2028 年才开始，你不可能在 2024 年实现九位数的营收。 - $SIVE 有 130 多名员工，如果我没记错的话，其中有四分之一到三分之一是博士。 他们很多工作都是围绕 IP，并且利用 Win Semi 和外部代工厂进行量产。如果他们像 $FN 或 $COHR 那样做组装，员工数量就会急剧膨胀。 我不太明白你为什么说一个给 $JBL、$GFS、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模供应商供货的客户是没希望的。 这可能是我见过的最独特的公司之一。
- English · 原文I’m actually kinda curious about $SIVE securing more foundry allocation given widespread CW DFB shortages now. Since I’m pretty confident it sells out once qualifications go into volume ramp. But aside from that > reaffirm demand/supply imbalance from other earnings like $MTSI / $AAOI helps > new development/qualifications mentioned in previous earnings with pluggable players, probably most material > Progress with $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS or other opportunities, maybe initial POs would be nice. > Nasdaq listing update reiterated (we already got updates it’s planned completion next few quarters). I still place that on priority personally since it unlocks more funding for their M&A efforts, hopefully down the pluggable stack. I think the revenue inflection starts around H1 2027, so current revenue/profit numbers are not very material. An $AAOI statement like anything we make we expect to be sold in 2028 or something would be kinda goated.中文 · 翻译我其实挺好奇 $SIVE 能不能拿到更多晶圆厂产能分配的，毕竟现在连续波 DFB 短缺问题挺普遍的。 因为我很有信心，一旦通过认证并开始大规模量产，他们的产品肯定会卖脱销。 但除此之外 > 从像 $MTSI / $AAOI 这样的其他公司财报中，能再次确认供需不平衡会很有帮助。 > 上次财报中提到的与可插拔模块领域玩家的新开发/认证进展，这可能是最重要的。 > 与 $JBL, ~ $AEVA, $POET, $GFS 的合作进展或其他机会，也许能有一些初步采购订单就更好了。 > 纳斯达克上市进展再次强调（我们已经知道计划在未来几个季度完成）。我个人仍然把这个放在优先位置，因为它能为他们的并购提供更多资金，希望能够深化到可插拔技术栈。 我认为营收拐点大约会在 2027 年上半年出现，所以目前的营收/利润数据不太重要。 如果 $AAOI 能发布一份声明，比如“我们生产的任何东西都预计能在 2028 年售罄”之类的话，那可就太牛了。
- English · 原文@4intheflames I don't own $GFS, but I'm personally it's surprised it's still down on the news US Gov is taking a direct stake in them for advancing CPO. Surprising to say the least, given everyone remembers $INTC as the latest foundry the US Gov liked.中文 · 翻译@4intheflames 我没持有 $GFS，但我个人挺意外，在得知美国政府要直接入股他们以推进 CPO（硅光）的消息后，股价竟然还在跌。 至少可以说，这挺让人意外的，毕竟大家还记得美国政府最近青睐的晶圆厂是 $INTC。
- English · 原文US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...中文 · 翻译美国政府将持有 $GFS 1% 的股份，并根据美国《芯片法案》向他们拨款 3 亿美元。 考虑到《芯片法案》专门旨在推动 CPO（共同封装光学）和硅光子技术，这实际上是对 $SIVE / $LITE 的一个强力解读。 （供参考，在 GFS 的演示幻灯片中，Sivers 和 Lumentum 是仅有的两家被点名的上市激光供应商。Sivers 的激光阵列最近在 GlobalFoundries 的 SCALE for CPO 中被列为参考设计。） 根据美国政府公告：“GlobalFoundries 将获得最高 3 亿美元，用于将国内 CPO 研发速度加快两到三年”（NIST） 从没想过我们会看到美国政府 / $INTC 在 CPO 领域的代工合作模式……
- English · 原文Main thing was executive commentary on CPO thematically. Regarding $AMD + hyperscaler adoption + timelines. Checks were very positive for the CPO segment that sold off on delay news. And very positive for $SIVE in that segment, since they're the laser supplier for Ayar, $GFS, that are both linked with possible $AMD CPO routes. But couldn't get direct supplier confirmation since that's confidential.中文 · 翻译主要内容是高管们对 CPO（共同封装光学）这个主题的评论。涉及到 $AMD、超大规模数据中心的采纳情况以及时间表。 调研结果对 CPO 板块来说非常积极，要知道这块之前还因为延迟的消息下跌了。 而且对这个领域的 $SIVE 也很积极，因为他们是 Ayar 和 $GFS 的激光供应商，这两家都和 $AMD 可能的 CPO 路线有联系。 但没能直接从供应商那里得到确认，因为这是保密的。
- English · 原文It's slightly more nuanced. Basically, $AMD SF event is tomorrow, Wed/Thurs (July 22, 23). From Jefferies client note, AMD is expected to provide additional disclosures around their likely scale-up CPO roadmap + MI500. If they confirm CPO route, would positive thematically since it's not just $NVDA forcing the transition. As for $SIVE, we'll get a better read if they're directly in AMD supply chains. Since right now, it's possible to map it through $GFS (reportedly involved in AMD MI500 CPO work) or AYAR (which AMD invested in). But no formal confirmations. So if you're turning in: - CPO thematic positive: MI500 explicitly commits to CPO/optical UALink. - AMD gives details using Ayar Labs or GF SCALE for MI500 CPO: That would be extremely positive for $SIVE, given they're the upstream laser supplier / reference laser. Currently, Blayne Curtis from Jefferies expect AMD to work with $ALAB on UAL and $AVGO on ESUN... but juicy details are here: "We are looking for whether AMD commits to a CPO based scale up solution and who supplies the optical engine" We'll get a broader read through on the supply chain come Wednesday/Thursday, too early to tell today.中文 · 翻译这事儿其实更复杂一些。简单来说，$AMD 的旧金山活动就在明天，周三/周四（7 月 22、23 日）。 根据 Jefferies 的客户报告，$AMD 预计会披露更多关于他们可能的大规模 CPO（共同封装光学）路线图 + MI500 的信息。 如果他们确认走 CPO 路线，那从主题上来说是利好，因为它表明不只是 $NVDA 在推动这一转变。 至于 $SIVE，如果他们直接进入 $AMD 的供应链，我们就能了解得更清楚。 因为目前，我们有可能通过 $GFS（据报道参与了 $AMD MI500 CPO 工作）或 $AYAR（$AMD 投资的公司）来推断，但还没有官方确认。 所以如果你正在关注： - CPO 主题积极面：MI500 明确承诺采用 CPO/光学 UALink。 - $AMD 透露 MI500 CPO 将使用 Ayar Labs 或 GF SCALE：考虑到 $SIVE 是上游激光供应商/参考激光，这对于 $SIVE 来说将是极其积极的。 目前，Jefferies 的 Blayne Curtis 预计 $AMD 将与 $ALAB 合作 UAL，并与 $AVGO 合作 ESUN……但关键细节在这里： “我们正在关注 $AMD 是否承诺采用基于 CPO 的扩展解决方案，以及谁将提供光学引擎。” 我们将在周三/周四获得更广泛的供应链信息，今天下结论还为时过早。
- English · 原文Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly: $205–307M of annual gross profit. Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~: 3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028. And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit) Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024. So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off. I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM. _ As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked. Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript. And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others... Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed. And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players . Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason... _ TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations. I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing. By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.中文 · 翻译很多人都好奇 $SIVE 通过轻晶圆厂模式（Win Semi + 其他）产能扩张的模型是怎样的： 如果以 Win Semi 10% 的晶圆产能作为低端分配（假设良率 65%，平均售价 $50-$75）， Sivers 每年能支持 $3.41 亿到 $5.12 亿的阵列收入。鉴于管理层设定的 50-60%+ 毛利率目标上限，这大概会是： 每年 $2.05 亿到 $3.07 亿的毛利润。 对比 Sivers 目前约 $11 亿的市值，如果这个产能场景在 2028 年实现，大概是： 市销率/毛利润倍数在 3.6-5.4 倍。 如果分配比例达到 15%，毛利润将是 $3.07 亿到 $4.61 亿（市销率/毛利润倍数在 2.4-3.6 倍）。 Sivers CEO 也回复说他们正在与更多晶圆厂合作以扩大产能。从一份旧的演示文稿来看，自 2024 年以来似乎有更多的认证。 所以随着 CPO 的兴起，产能目标可能比这里提到的还要大。 我还预计未来几个季度收入管道预测会调高，因为会有更多通过认证的供应商进入高量产阶段。 _ 至于需求侧，CW 也非常受限。 Lumentum 为了履行 EML 义务，正在从公开市场购买 CW，这从他们的财报电话会议记录中可见一斑。 $AMD 正在签署长期协议以确保 CW 产能（来自 Trendforce）。所以当 Sivers 与 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET、O-NET 等公司合作扩大产能时…… 考虑到目前的限制，任何独立通过认证并投入使用的产能都很可能会被吸收。 锦上添花的是，Morgan Stanley 在他们最近的报告中将 $SIVE（约 $11 亿）列为三家领先的 CPO 激光器供应商之一。 与市值 $550 亿+ 的 Coherent 和 Lumentum 并列，这并非没有道理…… _ 总结：Sivers 只需要从 Win Semi 获得少量产能分配，就能实现相对于当前估值而言可观的毛收入。 我认为，如果他们在美国纳斯达克上市后通过 M&A 扩大总可寻址市场（TAM），那将是最大的收入增长潜力，目前尚未被模型纳入。 通过复制 Lumentum 与 Cloud Light 的策略，构建完整的收发器模块或光引擎。
- English · 原文Three new $SIVE insider purchases today. Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today. This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director. Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence. Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term. Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).中文 · 翻译今天有三笔新的 $SIVE 内部人增持。 最值得注意的是：$SIVEF 首席执行官 Vikram 今天在公开市场买入了价值 100 万瑞典克朗的股票。 这发生在 Sivers 股价大幅下跌之后，此前有两份误导性的 CPO 延迟报告、Meta Compute 的相关新闻，以及另一位光子学董事的内部人减持报告。 通常来说，内部人出于各种原因会卖出股票。但首席执行官在公开市场买入股票，是管理层信心的最明确信号。 伴随着与 $GFS、$JBL 和其他激光供应商的合作关系，以及他近期在纳斯达克上市的目标。 感觉首席执行官看到了 Sivers 成为下一个光子学巨头的巨大潜力（我也是这么认为的）。
- English · 原文For this type of mapping with $SIVE, it's a good idea look at their partners and their timelines. - $JBL confirmed via JPM fireside chat they have a relatively dramatic moat with their 1.6T LRO and are getting qualified done over next 1-4 months (2 months ago). So should be August 2026 to March 2027 timeframes for qual completion, then mass prod start with Sivers in pluggables. - $AEVA are targeting HVM prob q4 2026, $POET is starting off production H2 2026 but probably later in H1 should kick off more. O-Net, Ayar, $GFS and others are somewhere in 2027 I think and that's more along the lines of CPO timelines rather than $SIVE per say. Very confident in terms of execution, since $SIVE has a technical + qualification moat into many different hyperscaler supplier sources. And everyone is incentivized to produce as much as possible, with Sivers as the laser supplier. Not including likely names like $AAPL in 2028. How both the $SIVE CEO and $JBL stated it is: It's more about how much they can make rather than looking at competition (cause demand is so high + different chokepoints are bottlenecked). For me personally, it's just waiting for things to play out. The main area of interest is downstream IP acquisition for TAM expansion, so I think that opportunity pipeline undersells forward growth going forward.中文 · 翻译对于$SIVE这种布局，最好是看看他们的合作伙伴和时间线。 - $JBL 在摩根大通的炉边谈话中确认，他们凭借 1.6T LRO 拥有相对显著的护城河，并且在接下来的 1-4 个月内（这是两个月前说的）完成资质认证。所以，资质认证完成的时间点应该在 2026 年 8 月到 2027 年 3 月之间，然后 Sivers 的产品就可以在可插拔模块中大规模量产了。 - $AEVA 的目标是大概在 2026 年第四季度开始大规模制造 (HVM)，而 $POET 将在 2026 年下半年开始生产，但可能上半年晚些时候就会有更多进展。 我认为 O-Net、Ayar、$GFS 和其他公司大概会在 2027 年左右，那更多是 CPO 的时间线，而不是严格意义上的 $SIVE。 对执行力很有信心，因为 $SIVE 在许多不同的超大规模供应商渠道中都拥有技术和资质认证的
- English · 原文$SIVE is probably my favorite stocks right now, not concerned about short term drops. - You have the laser supplier to $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. - NASDAQ listing planned in the next few quarters - Followed by M&A goals for TAM expansion. And it's literally trading less than $POET for some reason. All while CW lasers are extremely bottlenecked to the point $LITE can't make enough. Then they got a considerable amount of oversubscribed funding for fabless laser ramp recently. Comfortable long for me, probably one of the stocks that way overshot selloff imo.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 应该是我目前最喜欢的股票了，短期下跌我一点不担心。 - 他们是 $GFS、$JBL、Ayar、$POET 以及许多其他超大规模数据中心供应商的激光供应商。 - 计划在未来几个季度在纳斯达克上市 - 之后的目标是通过并购拓展市场规模（TAM）。 而且不知道为什么，它目前的交易价格竟然比 $POET 还低。与此同时，连续波（CW）激光器产能严重瓶颈，连 $LITE 都供不应求。 最近他们又为无晶圆厂激光器产能扩张获得了可观的超额认购资金。 对我来说，这是一个安心长期持有的标的，在我看来，它很可能是那批被过度抛售的股票之一。
- English · 原文Are you stupid? 1. $JBL mass producing 1.6T LRO is revenue. 2 O-Net mass producing ELS is revenue. 3. $GFS using $SIVE as reference laser for the hyperscalers is revenue. 4. Ayar joining $NVDA NVLink for CPO and using $SIVE for mass production is revenue. 5. Other pluggable players, potentially Eoptolink/Innolight mass producing pluggables with $SIVE as lasers is revenue. 6. $POET entering volume production is revenue.中文 · 翻译你是不是傻？ 1. $JBL 量产 1.6T LRO 就是营收。 2. O-Net 量产 ELS 就是营收。 3. $GFS 给超大规模数据中心用 $SIVE 作为参考激光器，就是营收。 4. Ayar 加入 $NVDA 的 NVLink 做 CPO，并用 $SIVE 进行量产，就是营收。 5. 其他可插拔模块厂商，可能是 Eoptolink/Innolight，量产以 $SIVE 作为激光器的可插拔模块，就是营收。 6. $POET 进入量产就是营收。
- English · 原文Nobody should care about TA charts since people just made up squiggly lines trying to convince others to sell. $SIVE just raised an emergency $70M for mass production likely for allocation from fabs. With $JBL, $POET, $AEVA, and others volume ramping near term. Then $GFS, Ayar, and many other players are volume ramping later in 2027. Sivers also confirmed intent to complete NASDAQ Listing in the next few quarters. It's probably my highest conviction photonics long, everything seems to be coming into place.中文 · 翻译没人应该关注技术分析图，那些只是人们凭空画些弯弯扭扭的线，试图说服别人卖出。 $SIVE 刚刚紧急募资 7000 万美元用于大规模生产，很可能是为了从晶圆厂获得配额。 $JBL、$POET、$AEVA 和其他公司短期内都将迎来产量爬坡。 然后 $GFS、Ayar 以及许多其他玩家将在 2027 年晚些时候迎来产量爬坡。 Sivers 还确认了在未来几个季度完成纳斯达克上市的意向。 这可能是我最有信心的光子学多头股，一切似乎都正在到位。
- English · 原文@ram_blings NP, I'm not sure if people remember this but $SIVE went up +70% in a day off $GFS news. And $AAOI has random +20-30% days. They're also capable of doing the opposite. Photonics sector are very volatile, but directionally they follow fundamentals in the long run.中文 · 翻译@ram_blings 不客气，我不太确定大家是不是还记得，不过 $SIVE 曾因为 $GFS 的消息，一天就涨了 70%。 $AAOI 也会时不时地单日暴涨 20-30%。 当然，它们也能反向波动，跌这么多。 光电板块波动性确实很大，但从长远来看，它们的大方向还是跟着基本面走的。
- English · 原文$SIVE is raising ~$61M (600M SEK) to expand manufacturing capacity for InP lasers and optical amplifiers. Sivers operates as a fab-lite model so this is likely hinting at foundry allocation/scaling for CW DFB laser ramp across Jabil, and their other partners. It could also point to broader foundry allocation/scaling beyond the already announced WIN partnership. My feedback is that it's very bullish if it's comprised of long-only institutions and there's no heavy discount (30 day VWAP). Otherwise, would need to reaccess if there's arb or short term investors. This is the perfect time to get ideal strategic investors like $GFS on the cap table. As well as focusing on having more US institutional support. Especially considering $56M is a small check to a single US institution that want photonics exposure (eg. look at Poet's $400M registered direct offering for sentiment). A lot of it is "it depends when more info comes out", but this looks like a very positive signal for mass production given Siver's fab-lite models.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 正在筹集约 6100 万美元（6 亿瑞典克朗），用于扩大 InP 激光器和光放大器的制造产能。 Sivers 采用的是轻晶圆厂模式，所以这很可能预示着 Jabil 和其其他合作伙伴将分配/扩大用于连续波 DFB 激光器生产的代工产能。 这也可能指向在已公布的 WIN 合作之外，更广泛的代工分配/产能扩大。 我的反馈是，如果投资者都是长期机构，并且没有大幅折价（30 天 VWAP），那这就是非常看涨的消息。否则，就需要重新评估是否存在套利或短期投资者。 现在是引入像 $GFS 这样的理想战略投资者进入资本结构的最佳时机。同时也要专注于争取更多美国机构的支持。 尤其考虑到 5600 万美元对于一家想要投资光子学领域的美国机构来说只是一笔小数目（例如，看看 Poet 的 4 亿美元注册直接发行，就能了解市场情绪）。 很多都“取决于更多信息何时公布”，但考虑到 Siver 的轻晶圆厂模式，这似乎是量产的一个非常积极的信号。
- English · 原文Not really, I personally still think it's undervalued. It's about MC relative to forward revenue potential. In just that tiny timeframe for $SIVE: - $JBL announced 1.6T LRO with Sivers - $GFS reference laser announcement with $SIVE - $AMD went to $GFS for CPO - $SIVE announced CW with TFLN - Ayar (using $SIVE) raised a bunch for volume ramp and joined $NVDA NVLink ecosystem - AlChip private placement with Amazon, which is Ayar's primary ASIC partner (hinting at Trainium wins) - O-Net new ELS partnership with $SIVE for mass production - $POET new purchase order with a customer that stated their initial clients is a "top-3 hyperscaper" - New CHIPS Act nondilutive funding - "LIDAR customer will ramp production starting Q4 2026," which is likely $AEVA - New information discovery likely linking $SIVE customer to $MRVL Celestial (not through Poet), Lightelligence, and Lightelligence. - New information discovery about Ayar removing Lumentum / Macom from website and likely making Sivers primary source - More pluggable players on top of $JBL. - $NVDA bottlenecking CW laser supply and $AMD + other CSPs going around signing LTAs - NASDAQ listing planned And more.中文 · 翻译倒也不是，我个人还是觉得它被低估了。关键是看市值和未来营收潜力的对比。 就在这么短的时间内，关于 $SIVE 就有： - $JBL 宣布与 Sivers 合作，推出 1.6T LRO。 - $GFS 发布了与 $SIVE 相关的参考激光器公告。 - $AMD 转而向 $GFS 寻求 CPO（封装光学）。 - $SIVE 宣布与 TFLN 合作推出 CW（连续波）。 - Ayar（使用 $SIVE 的技术）获得了大量融资以扩大生产，并加入了 $NVDA 的 NVLink 生态系统。
- English · 原文oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GFS reference laser - laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up - $POET and others for CPO scale out - $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers - O-Net for ELS mass production So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck... And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward. The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization). You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop. The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out. But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media. With $AAOI at $10B, you have: - A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027. - With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs. And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m). Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS. This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu. I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.中文 · 翻译哦，我觉得你误会了……随着价格下跌，我反而比以往任何时候都更看好。 $SIVE 市值大约 19 亿美元，它有： - $GFS 的参考激光器 - 为 Ayar 及其他 $NVDA NVLink 生态系统中的 CPO 扩容提供激光器 - 为 $POET 及其他公司提供 CPO 规模扩展 - 为 $JBL 及其他公司提供 1.6T+ 可插拔光收发器 - O-Net 提供 ELS 大规模生产 所以，所有这些超大规模数据中心供应商都想尽可能多地生产，而 Sivers 是激光器的瓶颈…… 这只是 Win Semi 和其他合作伙伴能生产多少的问题，$SIVE 能获得大约 60% 的毛利率，还有向下拓展潜在市场（TAM）的选择权。 瑞典媒体一直在唱衰的最近 15% 股票增发，是为了纳斯达克上市流通股和并购（以及授权）。 你只是看到潜在的做空者在运营非法机器人农场，瑞典媒体对一家瑞典上市公司唱衰，再加上整体宏观下跌。 那笔大约 1.4 亿美元的可转债确实存在，但对美国机构来说只是九牛一毛。等数据出来后，我们可能会看到更多的机构持仓。 但这也就是为什么 $SIVE 优先考虑在纳斯达克上市是件好事，这样他们就不用处理这些噪音和当地媒体了。 $AAOI 市值 100 亿美元，它有： - 一家端到端（美国）的激光/设计/组装公司，预计在 2027 年下半年进入上半年，营收将达到 4.71 亿美元。 - 据说还有像 $AMD 这样的其他超大规模数据中心公司正在讨论长期协议（LTAs）。 而且他们在进行了大约 14 亿美元的 ATM（4 亿 + 4 亿 + 6 亿）后，可能手头现金充裕。 只要管理层不瞎扯，有了那些惊人的营收预测，差不多就够了。 这让我想起了去年 $NBIS 跌到 70 美元的时候，即使当时它预计年度经常性收入（ARR）有 70-90 亿美元，随着时间线临近，它又恢复到 250 多美元。感觉像是似曾相识。 我只是在等待两者的销量都能放量。光子学通常比其他行业波动更大。
- English · 原文@RJCcapital Bruh $SIVE is $GFS reference laser, $JBL 1.6T pluggable laser, Ayar CPO scale up laser, $POET scale out laser, O-Net ELS laser. And many other undisclosed partnerships. Watch and learn.中文 · 翻译@RJCcapital 老哥，$SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器，$JBL 的 1.6T 可插拔激光器，Ayar 的 CPO 规模化激光器，$POET 的扩展激光器，还有 O-Net 的 ELS 激光器。 还有很多没公开的合作。 看着学吧。
- English · 原文Wow, $TSEM up 10%+ today. Good times, should have made this one of my largest positions in hindsight back in March. Foundries like $GFS and $INTC have been going brrr lately. https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS中文 · 翻译哇，$TSEM 今天涨了 10% 以上。 好日子，回头想想三月份就该把它弄成我的最大持仓之一。 像 $GFS 和 $INTC 这些晶圆代工厂最近涨得飞起。https://t.co/m5KVJ8vOAS
- English · 原文Mapping like - JP Morgan fireside conference for Jabil timelines + Quotes around 1.6T LRO - Sivers 2025 annual around $POET various press releases with $GFS and others. - Old investor customers decks mapped with different investment rounds of cpo startups at the time All merged together into a thesis.中文 · 翻译大致像这样： - 摩根大通关于 Jabil 时间线的炉边会议 + 涉及约 1.6T LRO 的引述 - Sivers 2025 年度相关，$POET 与 $GFS 等多家公司的各种新闻稿 - 结合当时不同轮次 CPO 初创公司融资情况的旧版投资者推介材料 所有这些汇总起来，形成了一套投资逻辑。
- English · 原文That’s a misconception: $SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up. Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc. - Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers. Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient. From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”. So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used. Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage). There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others). So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime. - for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players. - scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players. But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping. Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when. On top of things like this: For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser. Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains. This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long. Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.中文 · 翻译这是一种误解： $SIVE 是下一代架构的激光供应商，不仅仅是 CPO 规模化的配套。 可插拔、规模化 CPO（Scale out CPO）、Scale up CPO、NPO 等等。 - Sivers 和 $JBL 联手开挂，用 CW 激光器开发出了 1.6T 光收发器。 有效绕开了 EML 瓶颈，甚至还提升了能效。 从 Jabil 管理层的说法来看，他们打造了一个"相对显著的护城河"。 所以在下一代 1.6T 可插拔收发器上，Sivers 看起来立刻就会被用上。 市场也忽略了这一细节：Jabil 发布公告后，其他可插拔厂商也找上门了，SIVE 现在正在跟他们合作（很可能是联合开发、认证阶段）。 没有太多做光收发器的厂商是像 Lumentum 那样垂直整合的（想想：Innolight/eoptolink 之类的）。 所以这些都是在推进中的开发项目，只是还没公开披露，随时可能出新的新闻稿。 - 对于 2026 年下半年开始的规模化 CPO，比如 $POET 这类玩家，$SIVE 是它们的激光供应商。 - Scale up CPO 则是在 2027 年下半年，来自 Ayar 和英伟达的 NVLink CPO 生态系统，那才是光器件玩家们的主要放量阶段。 但这时候，从供应链图谱来看，$SIVE 看起来碾压了其他所有对手。 因为他们很可能从很久以前就开始跟 $MRVL Celestial、Lightmatter、Lightelligence 等公司一起研发设计，那时这些公司还很小。 而且还有像这样的： 对于 $GFS 这类代工厂来说，$SIVE 是参考激光器。 这还没算上 O-Net 这样的大公司正在用 $SIVE 构建 ELS，很可能是面向亚洲超大规模数据中心供应链的。 这就是为什么 $SIVE 是我目前最看好的激光器隘口长线标的。 感觉从 2027 年初开始，新的光架构里到处都有他们的影子。
- English · 原文I've been getting a lot of questions about OE Solutions (138080) recently. Here's my research/thoughts so far on it: They're a small Korean optical transceiver company, similar to $AAOI. And they've become one the few EML players in the world (eg. $COHR, $LITE, Mitsubishi, Source, Sumitomo), with scarce 100G EML laser capacity for 800G/1.6T. OE appears to be trying to make the full transceiver, not just the EML. They also have finished ELSFP CPO products, with UHP CW lasers, which is sampling Q3. Likewise, OE also seems to be building out the full ELSFP, rather than selling CW laser dies, so that's more market share. So you can think of it as Korean AAOI but EML instead of CW, and less capacity/qualifications. And playing catch-up to the rest of the world. However in terms of timelines: 1. 23dBm cooled ELSFP samples start in Q3 2026 2. Sales base for 800G, and 2027 1.6T "full force" 3. Late H2 2027, H1 2028 onward probably their ELSFP enters the volume production. And it seems they're working on 200G EML capability from their investor snipper 2025 OE IR snippet referenced “100GBaud EML / 200G PAM". This seems promising given their IP/demos. ELS has just been unveiled recently, sampling starts Q3. 800G/1.6T Optical transceivers are also likely 2027. So this is basically Korea's sovereign photonics player, playing catchup to $LITE, $AAOI, and the bigger players. (Disclosure: I have positions in OE Solutions (138080). This is fundamental research for informational purposes, not financial advice). As for OE solution valuations: 1. Doesn't seem like there's confirmed customers yet for these growth verticals. 2. Probably not many people understood what they're building toward yet. 3. Yields data kinda uncertain 1. Customers: We're actually in a major EML/CW laser shortage, so any independent capacity will be sought after. I personally don't think they'll have a hard time finding customers here. I would assume anything they make might get bought out and would get extra support from Korea. 2. Institutional support: Probably not much since it doesn't meet threshold for many US institution given MC size + KR listing. I also don't think many people understood what they're building yet. 3. Yields/Capacity: OE's disclosed wafer/module utilization is low (i remember was around 31% underutilized off the top of my head), so there's enough material revenue they can generate before they need to spend on capex. I'm also not sure about EML/CW and other yields. Probably need to go ask the company. Is this some random crap co? No. It's been doing optical transceivers stuff for more than 20Y, has R&D in the U.S. and Netherlands. But their entire AI growth vertical seems to happen next year, and hinges mainly around capacity/yields. And I personally think the EML/CW tech is probably worth a lot more than their current MC, if it were an acquisition target. Especially from a larger player that wanted to vertically integrate EML for pluggables and CW lasers for CPO. Markets are probably waiting on more certainty around qualifications after Q3 sampling or earnings projections announcements. TLDR on thoughts: Some of my friends discussed this last year, was probably way too early. Saw it got many comments 2 months ago, still too early. I still think now is early, but later in Q3-Q4 might be more interesting. I personally think it's a lot higher risk than a major CPO player like $SIVE, that's embedded in Ayar, $JBL, $GFS, and many other hyperscaler suppliers. Which also has Win Semi and others de-risking volume ramp. As OE Solutions looks like a new player trying to build out an $AAOI for the optical transceivers but sovereign EML and CW laser production for CPO products. And there's a lot of answered questions around customers + volume ramp, which presents material risk. But if you believe Korea can build out an 800G/1.6T transceiver EML supply chain and ELSFP with CW lasers. With OE Solutions, it might be worth taking a look into. Still researching the company tho, just initial thoughts.中文 · 翻译最近好多人在问我 OE Solutions (138080) 这家公司。 这是我目前的研究和想法： 这是一家韩国的小型光收发器公司，跟 $AAOI 有点像。 而且他们已经成为全球为数不多的 EML 玩家之一（比如 $COHR、$LITE、三菱、Source、住友），手握稀缺的 100G EML 激光器产能，专门用于 800G/1.6T。 OE 看起来不光想造 EML，还想做完整的收发器。他们已经有了成品 ELSFP CPO 产品，配上 UHP CW 激光器，Q3 开始送样。 同样地，OE 似乎也在整完整的 ELSFP 方案，而不是只卖 CW 激光晶粒，这样能抢到更多市场份额。 所以你可以把它理解成"韩国版的 AAOI"，但用的是 EML 而不是 CW，产能和认证方面还差点火候，目前是在追赶世界其他玩家。 时间线上来看： 1. 23dBm 制冷的 ELSFP 样品，2026 年 Q3 开始送样 2. 800G 的销售基础，2027 年 1.6T "全面发力" 3. 2027 年 H2 末、2028 年 H1 及以后，ELSFP 可能进入放量生产 而且从他们 2025 年投资者简报片段来看，似乎还在搞 200G EML 能力——简报里提到"100GBaud EML / 200G PAM"。考虑到他们的 IP 和 demo，这个方向挺有戏。 ELS 才刚发布不久，Q3 开始送样。800G/1.6T 光收发器大概率也是 2027 年。 所以这基本上是韩国的光子学国家队，正在追赶 $LITE、$AAOI 和那些更大的玩家。 （持仓披露：我持有 OE Solutions (138080) 仓位。这只是基本面研究，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。） 关于 OE Solutions 的估值： 1. 这些增长方向目前似乎还没有确认的客户。 2. 可能没多少人真正理解他们在做什么。 3. 良率数据有些不清晰。 1. 客户方面：现在其实正处于 EML/CW 激光器大缺货周期，所以任何独立的产能都会被抢着要。我个人觉得他们找客户不难。我甚至认为他们造出来的东西可能都会被扫货，还会获得韩国政府的额外支持。 2. 机构支持：可能不多，因为市值小 + 韩国上市，很多美国机构根本够不上门槛。我也觉得没多少人真正理解他们在搞什么。 3. 良率/产能：OE 公布的晶圆/模组利用率很低（我记得大概有 31% 的产能闲置），所以他们在需要砸资本开支之前，光靠现有的产能就能产生可观的收入。 至于 EML/CW 以及其他良率，我也不太确定。可能得直接去问公司。 这是不是一家随便的烂公司？不是。人家做光收发器已经超过 20 年了，在美国和荷兰都有研发。 但他们整个 AI 增长方向看起来要到明年才爆发，而且主要取决于产能和良率。 我个人觉得，如果 EML/CW 技术被收购的话，它的价值可能远超目前市值。 尤其是被那些想垂直整合 EML（用于可插拔模块）和 CW 激光器（用于 CPO）的大玩家收购。 市场可能在等 Q3 送样后的认证结果或者营收预期公告，才敢下定论。 总结我的想法： 去年就有朋友讨论过这家公司，当时可能太早了。两个月前看到评论区热闹起来，依然太早。 我现在还是觉得早，但到了 Q3 和 Q4 可能就会变得有意思起来。我个人认为它的风险比 $SIVE 这种深度嵌入 Ayar、$JBL、$GFS 和一堆超大规模供应商的 CPO 大玩家要高得多。$SIVE 还有 Win Semi 等公司在帮忙摊薄量产风险。 而 OE Solutions 看起来更像是一个新手玩家，想照着 $AAOI 的模式去造光收发器，但走的又是主权 EML 和 CW 激光器路线，面向 CPO 产品。 现在关于客户和量产爬坡的问题还有很多没解答，这本身就有实质风险。 但如果你相信韩国能建立 800G/1.6T 收发器 EML 供应链，以及带 CW 激光器的 ELSFP 方案。 那么 OE Solutions 或许值得一看。我还在继续研究这家公司，目前只是初步想法。
- English · 原文@degenlurker_ $AAOI + $SIVEF were my two likely guesses for $AMD large purchase agreements for CW lasers. We'll see what happens. given aaoi + amd analyst channel checks. and amd + gfs/sivers reference laser.中文 · 翻译@degenlurker_ $AAOI 和 $SIVEF 是我之前猜的、最有可能跟 $AMD 签大额 CW 激光器采购协议的两家公司。看接下来怎么走吧。 基于 aaoi 和 amd 的分析师渠道调研。以及 amd 跟 gfs/sivers 的参考激光器。
- English · 原文$SIVE is the next SIVE. Don’t think you’ll find another company. That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with: - $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers - Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments. That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations. Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement. Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous. From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed. So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable. Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 就是下一个 $SIVE。 别指望能找到第二家这样的公司。 具备资质、并且很可能是主要/独家供应商，对接的是： - $JBL 以及其他可插拔超大规模客户供应商 - Ayar 和 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态系统 同时还是 $GFS 以及可插拔/CPO/NPO 部署方案的基础参考激光器。 而且像 $AMD 和其他超大规模客户都在用，以当前的估值来看。 就连 $POET 也要买 $SIVE 的激光器，而 Poet 的估值跟 $SIVE 差不多，只不过靠的是那个 $5000 万的采购协议。 2027 到 2028 年的超大规模供应商数量简直离谱。 希望今天几个小时后的大会上，我们能听到纳斯达克上市时间表得到确认。 这样他们才有空间做并购来扩大 TAM（总可寻址市场），并让每一颗售出的激光器都更有价值。 就像当年 $LITE 那样，一步步成长为一家市值 750 亿美元的公司。
- English · 原文This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.中文 · 翻译这肯定要让很多人不高兴了： 但技术分析（TA）对交易者来说，就是占星术。 它就是个确认偏误，再加上利用人们入场交易时的心理。 有点像当初人们在 $SPCX IPO 时抢跑 $SPCE，就是料到散户会因为交易心理搞混股票代码。 $SIVE 涨了
- English · 原文Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).中文 · 翻译为什么我一直被问到这些问题！！！ $XFAB 正在打造一个硅光子学代工厂，作为 $TSEM 和 $GFS 的替代品。而且有欧洲支持它，再加上 $NVDA 的评估。 这需要时间……比如到 2026 年 10 月，开发应该能完成。 然后 2027 年产量会逐步扩大，到 2028 年进入（大规模量产），毕竟他们从 2023 年就开始搞了。 现在所有人都觉得它就是个低迷的汽车供应商。好在欧洲公司嘛，大家习惯看 TTM 营收，而不是盯着未来增长。 所以它就这么莫名其妙地领导了欧盟打造一个 $TSEM 式的硅光子学代工厂及供应链，市值大约 €11 亿？ 日月光（ASE）的研发总监和其他人都把它列为未来的 CPO 路线。 我可能在很多事情上都太早了，但当然大部分的风险回报就来自一点信念，赌它能商业化。 不然大家也可以直接选 Tower 这条更稳妥的路（我之前也写过一篇关于它的分析，也挺喜欢的）。
- English · 原文Names like: - $ASX - Sumitomo Electric - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - AlChip - $TSEM - $FN - Furukawa Electric - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR Off the top of my head. So basically, AI exposure trading in the $10-100B range. Likely have compelling ROI right now compared to indexes or $ARM to $MRVL that ran quite a bit? (Just a disclosure, only have financial interest in NBIS/TSEM/AAOI above) I mention a lot of smaller ideas, but that’s just to chase outsized returns. Still feels like many of these have room to go.中文 · 翻译这些公司，我随口一说哈： - $ASX - 住友电气 - $JBL - $VICR - $GFS - $AAOI - 创意电子 (AlChip) - $TSEM - $FN - 古河电气 - $CLS - $NBIS - $NOK - $AMKR - $LITE - $COHR 所以说，基本上就是在市值 100 亿到 1000 亿美元区间的 AI 相关股票。 跟大盘指数或者像 $ARM、$MRVL 这种已经涨了一大截的股票比起来，它们现在的投资回报率可能更吸引人，对吧？ （声明一下，我只对上面提到的 $NBIS、$TSEM、$AAOI 有投资兴趣） 我经常提到很多小盘股，不过也就是为了追求超额回报。 感觉这些公司好多都还有上涨空间。
- English · 原文@TalentActivity I do really like $GFS, $JBL, and others tied with $SIVE. They’re all just kinda large by now, and less chance to triple. If I were running a hedge fund I’d pick up Jabil, it I’m personally maximizing returns + don’t like options on higher IV equities.中文 · 翻译@TalentActivity 我确实很喜欢 $GFS、$JBL，还有跟 $SIVE 有关的其他标的。 不过它们现在体量都不小了，翻三倍的机会没那么大。 如果我是在管对冲基金，我会买 Jabil，但个人角度我在追求收益最大化，而且不喜欢做高波动率股票的期权。
- English · 原文Many work against the interest of retail investors. Especially as JP Morgan / US institutions are trying to buy up the float. You have a company funded with CHIPS Act, in major hyperscaler supply chains from $NVDA to others, powering Ayar for CPO, $JBL for pluggables. And now the reference laser for $GFS. With closest ramp with $AEVA / $POET likely coming next. And following that likely US NASDAQ Listing. Sivers is one of the most compelling photonics companies, and pretty sure all the deals established that already.中文 · 翻译很多动作都对散户投资者不利。 尤其是当摩根大通 / 美国机构正试图买断流通股的时候。 你有一家靠《芯片法案》资金支持的公司，身处从 $NVDA 到其他巨头的主要超大规模数据中心供应链中，为 Ayar 提供 CPO 方案，为 $JBL 提供可插拔模块。现在又成了 $GFS 的参考激光器供应商。 接下来最接近放量的很可能是 $AEVA / $POET。再之后，大概率就会在美国纳斯达克上市。 Sivers 是光子学领域最引人注目的公司之一，我相当确定已有的所有交易都已经证明了这一点。
- English · 原文@LightLogix I mean... > $SIVE reference laser for $GFS > $SIVE laser 1.6T LRO with $JBL + many more pluggable players > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > likely $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial with $NVDA NVLink > Likely $SIVE -> $AMD CPO ecosystem too. very compelling long idea.中文 · 翻译@LightLogix 我的意思是…… > $SIVE 是 $GFS 的参考激光器 > $SIVE 提供 1.6T LRO 激光方案，配合 $JBL 以及众多可插拔厂商 > $SIVE + Ayar + $NVDA NVLink > 很可能是 $SIVE + Lightmatter / $MRVL Celestial 搭配 $NVDA NVLink > 大概率 $SIVE 也会进入 $AMD 的 CPO 生态系统 这是个非常吸引人的做多逻辑。
- English · 原文$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI. Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there. Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air. To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary. Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser. (Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth) Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all. So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater). But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now). Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too. Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE. Just a matter of time before volume ramps.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 是我除了 AAOI 以外最喜欢的 CPO / 光子学股票。 部分原因是它是瑞典公司，而且那边有喜剧演员给你提供乐子。 今天，一家叫 Protean Funds 的非技术背景新对冲基金（很可能在做空）跑出来发言了。 说 $SIVE 的 CPO 应用是凭空想象的。 而就在这之后，$GFS 刚把 $SIVE 列为他们的参考激光器。 （给新读者补充点背景：瑞典很多人只看过去 12 个月的营收，根本不理解未来增长这个概念） 还有就是他们不懂，现在根本就没有任何 CPO 应用已经放量。 所以瑞典的对冲基金一直在做空（其中很多基金，比如 Colosseum / Origo，都已经严重亏损了）。 但是……对于技术派读者来说……从 2026 年下半年到 2028 年，市场空间在 1 年半内从接近 0 飙到 910 亿美元（我们现在已经进入下半年了）。 整体市场空间达到 1410 亿美元（这也是 1 年半内翻了 10 倍以上）……而且 $SIVE 已经通过 $JBL 和其他未公开的可插拔厂家，打入了可插拔市场。 对于这些瑞典本土公司来说，在 $SIVE 即将迎来史上最大拐点之前做空，结局恐怕不会太好看。 放量只是时间问题。
- English · 原文It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.中文 · 翻译大公司想随便收购像 $SIVE 这种拿了《芯片法案》资金的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种有政府背景的，其实有点难度。 有些风投部门有时候也会错过机会。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会在六月的投票后入股 $SIVE。
- English · 原文$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 看起来既是明年 CPO 的关卡，又是它的瓶颈。 总能看到非技术人员发布的信息，完全忽略了各种细节。 下面说说原因： 1. CW 激光器受到 $LITE 财报所显示的瓶颈制约。 激光晶圆厂的大量产能都被分配给了 EML，很可能来自 $NVDA 之前的合同。 → 住友电工/古河电气 = 瓶颈 → Win Semi = 瓶颈 $SIVE 做的是 Fab-lite 模式，那它算不算瓶颈？ 是的，$SIVE 就卡在这个激光瓶颈里，因为他们很早就掌控了从 Win Semi 和其他晶圆厂流出的 CW 激光器产能分配权（CEO 说过他们也在与其他厂商合作，增加更多产能）。 完美的例子是 Kioxia/Sandisk。$SNDK 控制着 NAND 的产出，所以他们就是瓶颈，因为他们控制着最终定价。 Ayar、Jabil、其他可插拔模块厂商，加上 Nvidia NVLink CPO 生态，需求超过了供给……最终激光器供应掌握在 $SIVE 手里，这就让 Sivers 成了瓶颈。 $SIVE 很可能也是 Jabil、Gen-1 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial，以及其他超大规模 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线的主供或唯一来源。所以绕不开它（单通道 CW 激光器没法热替换掉 Sivers）。 2. $SIVE 是 CPO 的关卡。 $NVDA 用的是 $COHR、$LITE（后者很可能从日本竞争对手那里外购 CW 产能）。 $AVGO 很可能也是垂直整合的。 然而：它周围整个生态，从 ASIC 项目（Marvell、AlChip 等）到商用项目（Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence），很可能都是围绕 $SIVE 设计的。 比如 Ayar，2022 年可能尝试过从 $MTSI / $LITE 做多源采购，但它们的激光器在阵列规格上可能达不到 Sivers 的水平（最近他们从供应链网站上去掉了 Lumentum / Macom）。 如果至少在初期几代产品中没有替代方案（显然他们正在努力做多源采购），那就让 $SIVE 成了激光器领域一个结构性的、必须通过的关卡。 即使看看 $JBL 设计的 1.6T LRO，他们也通过围绕 $SIVE（可能是唯一来源）的性能，建立了一道“巨大的护城河”。 $SIVE 也是 $GFS 的代工厂级参考激光器设计，而你的超大规模客户（比如 $AMD，Gen1 很可能用的是 Sivers + 也许还有 Ayar）都在用 $GFS： 如果每一个尚未实现垂直整合的主要玩家（Nvidia/Broadcom）都在 CPO 中使用 Sivers…… 那他们就构成了一个关卡。 看看整个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态的合作伙伴：每一个都很可能在使用 Sivers。而且它们全都用 $GFS（Sivers 在这里是默认参考设计）。 所以当 CPO 在 2027 年下半年真正起量时，$SIVE 既是关卡又是瓶颈，而这次 CPO 是有史以来最大的架构变革之一（根据高盛研究报告，TAM 从接近 $0 到未来 1 年半内变成 $81B 或 $91B）。 这就是为什么我说 $SIVE 看起来像未来的 $75B 体量的 $LITE，会在未来几年内实现。 这一切都将在明年上演。 而它现在的市值，还不到一家拿着 $50M 采购协议、把 Sivers 的激光器买回来重新包装的公司。
- English · 原文its supply chain confirmation, I knew $NVDA was an investor in Ayar, so Id assume they wanted some strategic collaboration like NVlink ecosystem. $AMD also invested in Ayar, so $AMD going with $GFS for CPO also kinda put 1+1 together with $SIVE through Ayar. Mediatek and $INTC turns out to be investors in Ayar, Mediatek does Google ASICs. So if you follow this logic, maybe theres more announcements coming soon with $SIVE in $GOOGL supply chains next.中文 · 翻译供应链已经确认了。我之前就知道 $NVDA 是 Ayar 的投资方，所以我觉得他们应该是想在 NVLink 生态这类方向上寻求战略合作。 $AMD 也投了 Ayar，那 $AMD 找 $GFS 做 CPO 这事儿，再加上 Ayar 这边的关系，基本上把 $SIVE 串起来就很容易推理了。 联发科和 $INTC 原来也是 Ayar 的投资方，联发科还在做谷歌的 ASIC。 所以按这个逻辑推下去，接下来可能很快就会有 $SIVE 进入 $GOOGL 供应链的更多消息。
- English · 原文$NVDA CPO ecosystem = $MRVL, Lightmatter, Ayar (joined today) $SIVE 100% confirmed laser supplier to Ayar. $SIVE high confidence laser supplier to Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter. Nvidia, Marvell, Lightmatter, Ayar all use $GFS, which Sivers is reference laser. Sivers = laser supplier to entire NVLink CPO ecosystem. People were doubting Sivers connections to Nvidia, but Ayar joining is clearest tie of $SIVE to $NVDA.中文 · 翻译$NVDA 的 CPO 生态系 = $MRVL、Lightmatter、Ayar（今天刚加入） $SIVE 百分百确认是 Ayar 的激光供应商。 $SIVE 有高置信度是 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter 的激光供应商。 Nvidia、Marvell、Lightmatter、Ayar 全都用 $GFS，而 Sivers 是它们的参考激光。 Sivers = 整个 NVLink CPO 生态系的激光供应商。 之前有人质疑 Sivers 跟 Nvidia 的关系，但 Ayar 加入就最清楚地说明了 $SIVE 和 $NVDA 之间的关联。
- English · 原文GUESS WHAT ANON? After today’s new news with Ayar joining Nvidia NVLink fusion. $SIVE is now the laser source for likely: The entire Nvidia’s NVLink CPO listed supply chain ecosystem partners. From Marvell Celestial, Lightmatter, and now Ayar today (the three listed in NVLink CPO). This is why I call $SIVE a structural photonics laser chokepoint over CPO and now Nvidia ecosystem supply chains. -> Celestial was likely a direct customer to Sivers, not through Poet. (2023 investor presentation mapping), then bought by Marvell. -> Lightmatter was also listed there as a customer in 2023 investor presentation deck mapping. And… Guess what else? Then they all happen to use GlobalFoundries. Which Sivers is now the GFS silicon photonics foundry-level reference laser (also new news yesterday). Supply chain mapping all starting to make sense now anon? Sivers is also likely now the primary laser source for Ayar after they removed Macom/Lumentum their laser supply chain section (now just gfs/sivers), as a cherry on top. Algorithms completely miss this type of image based mapping. After this announcement, I personally think current valuations are very undervalued: Given Sivers now holds one of the most important structural laser chokepoint over Nvidia CPO NVLink ecosystem supply chains.中文 · 翻译猜怎么着，匿名君？ 今天出了新消息，Ayar 加入了 Nvidia 的 NVLink 融合。 $SIVE 现在很可能是以下领域的激光源： 整个 Nvidia NVLink CPO 列表里的供应链生态系统合作伙伴。 从 Marvell Celestial、Lightmatter，到今天公布的 Ayar（NVLink CPO 里列出的这三家）。 这就是为什么我把 $SIVE 称为 CPO 乃至现在 Nvidia 生态系统供应链上一个结构性的光子学激光瓶颈。 → Celestial 很可能曾是 Sivers 的直接客户，而不是通过 Poet（2023 年投资者演示文档里的映射），后来被 Marvell 收购了。 → Lightmatter 在 2023 年的投资者演示文档映射里也被列为客户。 而且……猜猜还有啥？ 然后它们碰巧都用了 GlobalFoundries。 而 Sivers 现在是 GFS 硅光子学晶圆厂级别的参考激光源（也是昨天的新消息）。 供应链映射开始说得通了，匿名君？ Sivers 现在很可能也是 Ayar 的主要激光源了，因为 Ayar 把 Macom/Lumentum 从它们的激光供应链部分移除了（现在只剩 gfs/sivers），这简直是锦上添花。 算法完全捕捉不到这种基于图像的映射。 在这则公告之后，我个人认为当前的估值被严重低估了： 鉴于 Sivers 现在手握 Nvidia CPO NVLink 生态系统供应链里最重要的结构性激光瓶颈之一。
- English · 原文$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables. My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW. Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today. Is just one step of the way. https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm中文 · 翻译$LITE 靠着 EML 和可插拔模块，在两年内从 $3B 涨到 $75B 完成了第一波光通信行情。 我的观点是 $SIVE 也能从 $3B 起步做到同样的事，凭借 CPO/可插拔模块和连续波激光器。 Sivers 加上 GFS 的 SiPH 参考激光器消息，再加上今天 54% 的涨幅。 这才只是刚刚开始。 https://t.co/Hfth69ZnYm
- English · 原文DID YOU LISTEN ANON? Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration. $SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform. For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH. This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history. As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route. I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue. To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.中文 · 翻译兄弟们，你们听到了吗？ 路透社：Sivers 与 Globalfoundries 达成新战略合作。 $SIVE 现在宣布，它的激光器将被集成到基于 Globalfoundries 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。 用于可插拔光收发器、CPO 和硅光。 这对于 Sivers 来说，从根本上讲，是公司历史上最具突破性的消息。 博通、英伟达、迈威尔、AMD，以及任何通过 GFS 硅光平台的公司，都将把 Sivers 的激光器作为默认路线。 我个人认为，单凭这条消息，从中期来看，应该就能轻松让 Sivers 的市值翻倍或三倍，因为这对他们的营收来说是根本性的利好。 让 Sivers 成为众多使用全球领先光子学晶圆厂的超大规模企业的标准激光器路线。
- English · 原文@wangxindian @StormDirac I’m not sure people realize the gravity of this news with $GFS yet. It’s probably more fundamentally groundbreaking than $SIVE + $JBL. As $AVGO, $MRVL, $NVDA or anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has $SIVE embedded in the reference as default.中文 · 翻译@wangxindian @StormDirac 我感觉大家还没意识到 $GFS 这条新闻的分量。 它可能比 $SIVE + $JBL 更根本性地具有突破性。 因为所有经过 GFS 硅光子的公司，像是 $AVGO、$MRVL、$NVDA，默认的参考设计里都嵌着 $SIVE。
- English · 原文@StormDirac “Sivers Semiconductors’ laser arrays will be integrated into reference designs built on GF’s silicon photonics platform.” Woah that’s structurally massive news with $SIVE and $GFS.中文 · 翻译@StormDirac "Sivers Semiconductors 的激光阵列将被集成到基于 GF 硅光平台构建的参考设计中。" 哇，这对 $SIVE 和 $GFS 来说，是结构性的重大消息。
- English · 原文-> IP acquisition -> Just waiting for CPO to take off $SIVE is a laser chokepoint for photonics and are publicly validated by: - $GFS (1 of 2 public laser suppliers with $LITE for CPO per presentation) - $JBL (“Relatively dramatic moat” for pluggables built with Sivers) - CHIPS ACT for the overall company For highest visibility: -> Ayar is the largest CPO player that primary sources $SIVE and are expected to ramp in 2027. -> $POET is another near term CPO volume player that’s heavily visible with Sivers. For OSINT mapping: $MRVL Celestial (direct, not through Poet), Lightmatter, Lightelligence, were all high confidence customers of Sivers. $SIVE is also developing/qualifying with multiple more optical transceiver players following Jabil. It feels like they’re going to end up everywhere. I’m not sure people realize how special that many qualifications is coming from a <$2B MC laser company is… right before 2027 volume ramp. Especially while all the other laser companies trade at $15B-$70B valuations. Just need pluggables to bridge revenue gap into H2 2027 (CPO Scale up) Then making every laser they sell more valuable following the $LITE playbook, to capture more TAM of both markets. - In the overarching optical $141B TAM (10x) in the next 1 1/2 years. (Goldman Sachs) - and CPO TAM going from 0 to $81B in the next 1 1/2 years. So, easily multiply revenue opportunity overnight doing IP acquisition downstream. It’s more of just a waiting game, I think $SIVE is very undervalued relative to forward revenue potential. If it were a private Silicon Valley startup it would probably be worth $4-6B today. Just needs to get listed on NASDAQ for premiums to bridge that gap.中文 · 翻译-> 拿下IP -> 就等CPO起飞 $SIVE 是光子学领域的激光要塞，并且已获得如下公开验证： - $GFS（据演示材料，是两家公开激光供应商之一，与 $LITE 一起供应 CPO） - $JBL（用Sivers构建的可插拔模块拥有“相对显著的护城河”） - 整个公司获得的CHIPS法案资金 最高可见度方面： -> Ayar 是最大的CPO玩家，主要货源来自 $SIVE，预计2027年放量。 -> $POET 是另一个近期的CPO量产玩家，与Sivers有非常高的可见度。 开源情报梳理： $MRVL Celestial（直接，非通过Poet）、Lightmatter、Lightelligence，都是Sivers的高置信度客户。 $SIVE 还在与更多光收发器厂商进行开发和认证，紧随Jabil之后。 感觉它们会出现在每个角落。 我不确定大家是否意识到，一家市值不到20亿美元的激光公司，在2027年放量前夕获得这么多认证，有多不寻常…… 尤其当其他激光公司都在150亿到700亿美元的估值区间交易。 只需要可插拔模块来填补营收缺口，撑到2027年下半年（CPO规模化）。 然后照着 $LITE 的剧本，让每一颗卖出的激光器都更值钱，从而在两个市场中捕获更多TAM。 - 在整体光学领域，未来一年半内TAM为1410亿美元（高盛数据，10倍空间）。 - 而CPO的TAM将在未来一年半内从0增长到810亿美元。 所以，通过向下游收购IP，一夜之间就能轻松把营收机会翻倍。 更多只是等待的游戏，我认为 $SIVE 相对于未来的营收潜力，现在非常被低估。 如果它是一家硅谷的私营初创公司，今天可能值40到60亿美元。 只需要在纳斯达克上市，用溢价来弥合这个差距。
- English · 原文They’re stupid? $JBL announced demand > supply for their 1.6T LRO and this signals mass production on $SIVE lasers. Ayar raised $500m for volume ramp and dropped $LITE and $MTSI for $SIVE as primary. $AMD went with $GFS and have a high chance cw of using sivers for their CPO program. Sivers also signaled M&A which expands TAM a ton downstream中文 · 翻译他们傻吗？ $JBL 宣布需求大于供应，这预示着 $SIVE 的激光器将进入大规模量产。 Ayar 筹集了 5 亿美元用于量产放量，并放弃了 $LITE 和 $MTSI，转投 $SIVE 作为主要供应商。 $AMD 选择了 $GFS，并且有很大概率在它们的 CPO 计划中使用 Sivers 的产品。 Sivers 还暗示了并购的可能，这会大幅扩展下游的可触达市场。
- English · 原文@Jimmy4466597097 ~1/4th of their entire company are PHDs. Sivers is primarily doing novel IP development. Then using $GFS / Win to scale without capex + or needing headcount. You would need a lot of more headcount for stuff like assembly (without doctorates).中文 · 翻译@Jimmy4466597097 他们全公司大约有四分之一都是博士。Sivers 主要做的是新颖的知识产权开发。 然后借助 $GFS / Win 来扩大规模，不需要资本支出，也不用增多少人手。 像组装这类活（不需要博士学历），你得用更多的人手。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
GFS 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：