RKLBRocket Lab USA
7Bull0Bear9Mention
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
Focused on AI photonics and semiconductor supply chains — sourcing asymmetric setups from bottoms-up value-chain research. Tracks CPO & optical modules closely, with ongoing deep-dives on SIVE, AAOI, LITE, POET.
Quick verdict
RKLB is net bullish (7 bull · 0 bear)
Last spoke: 08/22/2026, 14:54 · conviction 1/10
8-10 confidence views use larger markers▲ Bull▼ Bear● Mention
View History (16, newest first)
- It's been fun to read these US Gov fact sheets (few a week) recently. Earlier this week was "Golden Age of Space Transportation", with $SPCX hard carrying the launch sector like Faker. And $RKLB + other rocket companies as beneficiaries of the 1K launch/reentry goal by 2030. This month we also had: - Drone component tariffs - American Mining / Critical Mineral deals - Polysilicon supply chains tariffs and a lot more... So helpful to see what sectors US policy is focusing on.
- Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.
- @zcelestialbaby It's material to $RKLB, since it will be validating their new reusable medium lift rocket Neutron as well as their newer satellite platform. I don't really post much updates on Rocketlab (yes I own Rocketlab). unless it's something that catches my eye.
- $RKLB has been awarded a $397M contract by the US Space Force. To build out Flatellite satellites and launch them on their Medium Lift rocket, Neutron. https://t.co/0jsPPf9ucI
- Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT. Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring. If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations. https://t.co/04W7phuIwr
- @SUOHA_AI I remember first investing in $RKLB back at $15 or so. It just find it rare to get exposure to a downstream + frontier sector leader. So I’m personally not missing this chance again with $CCXI.
- Names like LeaderDrive are at all time highs? Depends on the company of course. Liquidity works a little differently in America, usually focuses on downstream frontier industries like space, robotics, AI, and such. If we look at $RKLB for space as one example that has premiums relative to revenue.
- @KlNKLAADZE My opinion is that CEOs should keep the equity they have and work toward making that appreciate in value. Like what $RKLB founder does. Rather than relying on large compensation grants.
- Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history. - Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX. - on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI - Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree humanoids to replace the human workforce - Star Wars laser beams from $EOS.ASX to AI DC lasers like $LITE. - Waymo and $TSLA self driving cars everywhere in urban cities - and we get industry Quantum commercialization end of decade This is kinda crazy to be an investor in this timeframe. Feels like every movie from the Star Wars Death Star to Skynet is coming to life. What’s next?
- There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops. And they typically recover earlier? Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.
- Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.
- Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.
- Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T
- There was interesting research published called "Democratization of Retail Trading". That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments. and found: 1. "WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks." 2. "Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases." Their conclusion? "We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice." I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options). I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.
- Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.
- @realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.
Ongoing takes on other optical names too
Beyond RKLB, his viewpoint library also covers: