RKLBRocket Lab
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历史观点（7 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops. And they typically recover earlier? Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.中文 · 翻译现在全球都在回调，不知道什么时候才停。 韩综指跌了 -8.18%（SK 海力士/三星） 日经跌了 -4.8% 台湾加权指数跌了 -3.82% 你也看到了 $SOI 或 $RKLB 跌了 30-40%。 根据我个人的经验，高贝塔股票会跌得更惨，但它们通常先于指数下跌。 而且它们往往反弹得更早？ 除了韩国这种本身就波动大的市场，当主要指数每天回调 3-4% 的时候，通常都不太好受。
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T中文 · 翻译哇，$NBIS、$ALAB 和 $RKLB 被纳入纳斯达克 100 了！ 看着 Astera、Rocketlab 和 Weebius 从当年的小公司一步步成长… 现在变成纳斯达克上最大的那些之一，挺有意思的 https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T
- English · 原文There was interesting research published called "Democratization of Retail Trading". That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments. and found: 1. "WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks." 2. "Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases." Their conclusion? "We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice." I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options). I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.中文 · 翻译有一份挺有意思的研究发表了，题目叫《散户交易的民主化》。 他们研究了 160 万条 $RDDT WSB 评论。 结果发现： 1. "在挖掘表现最好的股票方面，WSB 几乎超过了所有投资银行。" 2. "他们的平均收益率能与顶级投行一较高下，某些情况下甚至更胜一筹。" 他们的结论是什么？ "我们认为，WSB 确实可能是一个免费、易得且很有价值的投资建议来源。" 我确实觉得 WSB 在 $RKLB、$HOOD 这些票上挖得很早，但时机经常抓得稀烂（尤其是用期权的时候）。 我觉得现在所有超额收益都在 X 上了。
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译说白了就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户冲得太早了，完全跑在了机构前面，押注下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 上几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在，你会看到摩根大通、富达研究这些活跃机构出现在股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生过同样的事。 > 我当时指出机构累积持仓接近<30%，还说过他们想要更多筹码。 > 机构把流通盘大部分都吃掉了 > 当时一堆负面文章，现在全是利好，股价还创新高。 两年前是 $RKLB > 我 $16 的时候就做多了，但机构分析师一直在给历史最低的目标价，叫散户卖，尽管它的火箭复用率那么高。 > 散户卖了，机构持仓却堆上去了 > 现在又创新高 我看好 Foci (3363) 会成为 $NVDA 和 $TSM 光学项目的瓶颈，现在却有人暗示你在 $HIMX 旁边、以 25 亿美元估值就卖掉它。 所以如果你看到卖方的负面报告，或者一波莫名其妙的坏消息，那可能是个好信号——他们需要流动性。 最近一些小型对冲基金已经急到甚至可能在 X 上用机器人农场来喊散户卖股票了，哈哈……我最近刚揭露过这事。 不管怎样，这也是为什么我花大量时间研究具体个股，这样人们才能在噪声中建立自己的信念。 不幸的是，这就是现代流动性周期/转移（美国散户 → 机构）运作的一部分，是生活的常态。 它们从来就不是为散户的利益服务的。
- English · 原文@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.中文 · 翻译@realstockfox 对，我挺确定的，$INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到 2029 年还会在…… 不需要不停买入新的/不同的美股仓位，就让你手里的那些随着时间慢慢复利就行。