RKLBRocket Lab
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
RKLB 整体偏多（看多 7 · 看空 0）
最近发言：2026/08/22 14:54 · 信心分 1/10
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历史观点（16 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文It's been fun to read these US Gov fact sheets (few a week) recently. Earlier this week was "Golden Age of Space Transportation", with $SPCX hard carrying the launch sector like Faker. And $RKLB + other rocket companies as beneficiaries of the 1K launch/reentry goal by 2030. This month we also had: - Drone component tariffs - American Mining / Critical Mineral deals - Polysilicon supply chains tariffs and a lot more... So helpful to see what sectors US policy is focusing on.中文 · 翻译最近读这些美国政府的概况介绍（每周几份），挺有意思的。 这周早些时候读到的是“太空运输的黄金时代”，$SPCX 像 Faker 一样一力扛起了发射领域。 还有 $RKLB 和其他火箭公司，作为到2030年实现1000次发射/再入目标的受益者。 这个月我们还有： - 无人机零部件关税 - 美国采矿业 / 关键矿产协议 - 多晶硅供应链关税 还有更多... 看到美国政策重点关注哪些领域，真是太有帮助了。
- English · 原文Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.中文 · 翻译就说几个近期的事件吧： - 明天就是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA），届时你们关注的CPO玩家会发布公告/更新。 这应该会对某些光模块公司形成催化剂。 - 财报周：今天有$ASTS、$RKLB（航天领域）发财报，周二有$LITE（光子学领域），周中有$NBIS（Neocloud），等等。 - Unitree的IPO申购今天开放了，预计本月上市。 如果它上市表现不错，这应该会对人形机器人+机器人板块形成一个潜在的催化剂，比如$CCXI。 接下来一周会很有趣。
- English · 原文@zcelestialbaby It's material to $RKLB, since it will be validating their new reusable medium lift rocket Neutron as well as their newer satellite platform. I don't really post much updates on Rocketlab (yes I own Rocketlab). unless it's something that catches my eye.中文 · 翻译@zcelestialbaby 这对 $RKLB 来说很重要，因为它会验证他们新的可重复使用中型运载火箭 Neutron 以及他们新的卫星平台。 我平时不怎么发关于 Rocketlab 的更新（是的，我持有 Rocketlab），除非是看到什么特别吸引我的东西。
- English · 原文$RKLB has been awarded a $397M contract by the US Space Force. To build out Flatellite satellites and launch them on their Medium Lift rocket, Neutron. https://t.co/0jsPPf9ucI中文 · 翻译$RKLB 获得了美国太空部队一份 3.97 亿美元的合同。 他们将负责建造 Flatellite 卫星，并用他们家的中型运载火箭 Neutron 发射这些卫星。https://t.co/0jsPPf9ucI
- English · 原文Blue Origin reportedly raising $10B at a $130B valuation per NYT. Seems pretty positive for $RKLB, $ASTS, and other space names in terms of relative valuation anchoring. If SpaceX and Blue Origin is able to set such high valuations. https://t.co/04W7phuIwr中文 · 翻译蓝色起源据报道正以 1300 亿美元的估值融资 100 亿美元，《纽约时报》称。 这对 $RKLB、$ASTS 以及其他太空股来说，在相对估值锚定方面，显得相当利好。 如果连 SpaceX 和蓝色起源都能达到这么高的估值。 https://t.co/
- English · 原文@SUOHA_AI I remember first investing in $RKLB back at $15 or so. It just find it rare to get exposure to a downstream + frontier sector leader. So I’m personally not missing this chance again with $CCXI.中文 · 翻译@SUOHA_AI 我记得第一次投资 $RKLB 大概在 $15 左右的时候。 我只是觉得，很少能接触到一个下游 + 前沿领域的领导者。所以这次对 $CCXI，我个人不会再错过这个机会了。
- English · 原文Names like LeaderDrive are at all time highs? Depends on the company of course. Liquidity works a little differently in America, usually focuses on downstream frontier industries like space, robotics, AI, and such. If we look at $RKLB for space as one example that has premiums relative to revenue.中文 · 翻译像 LeaderDrive 这样的公司名都创历史新高了？当然，这要看具体公司了。美国市场的流动性玩法有点不一样，通常侧重于下游前沿产业，比如太空、机器人、人工智能等等。如果以 $RKLB 为例，来看太空领域的话，它相对于营收就有溢价。
- English · 原文@KlNKLAADZE My opinion is that CEOs should keep the equity they have and work toward making that appreciate in value. Like what $RKLB founder does. Rather than relying on large compensation grants.中文 · 翻译@KlNKLAADZE 我的看法是，CEO 们应该保留他们持有的股权，然后努力让这些股权增值。就像 $RKLB 的创始人做的那样。 而不是靠大额的薪酬授予。
- English · 原文Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history. - Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX. - on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI - Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree humanoids to replace the human workforce - Star Wars laser beams from $EOS.ASX to AI DC lasers like $LITE. - Waymo and $TSLA self driving cars everywhere in urban cities - and we get industry Quantum commercialization end of decade This is kinda crazy to be an investor in this timeframe. Feels like every movie from the Star Wars Death Star to Skynet is coming to life. What’s next?中文 · 翻译说实话，2020-2030 这十年可能是人类历史上最牛批的（goated）十年。 - 借助 $RKLB 到 $SPCX，把大规模可重复使用火箭搞起来，用于轨道计算。 - 跟 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 一起，站在超级人工智能（ASI）和递归学习的临界点上。 - Boston Dynamics 和 Unitree 的人形机器人翻着后空翻，要来取代人类劳动力。 - 从 $EOS.ASX 的《星球大战》激光束，到 $LITE 这样的 AI 数据中心激光器。 - Waymo 和 $TSLA 的自动驾驶汽车，在城市里到处都是。 - 而且到本十年末，我们还能看到量子计算的商业化。 在这个时间段当投资者，真的有点疯狂。感觉就像从《星球大战》的死星到《终结者》的天网，每一部电影都在变成现实。 接下来是什么？
- English · 原文There's a global correction right now, no clue when it stops. Kospi is down -8.18% (Sk hynix/Samsung) Nikkei is down -4.8% TWSE Index is down -3.82% As you've seen with $SOI or $RKLB dropping 30-40%. From personal experience, high beta stocks get hit a lot harder, but usually frontrun index drops. And they typically recover earlier? Aside from Korea which is typically volatile, when major indexes start correcting 3-4% a day, usually not a fun time.中文 · 翻译现在全球都在回调，不知道什么时候才停。 韩综指跌了 -8.18%（SK 海力士/三星） 日经跌了 -4.8% 台湾加权指数跌了 -3.82% 你也看到了 $SOI 或 $RKLB 跌了 30-40%。 根据我个人的经验，高贝塔股票会跌得更惨，但它们通常先于指数下跌。 而且它们往往反弹得更早？ 除了韩国这种本身就波动大的市场，当主要指数每天回调 3-4% 的时候，通常都不太好受。
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Woah, $NBIS, $ALAB, and $RKLB got added to Nasdaq 100! Fun to see both Astera, Rocketlab and Weebius grow up from being small companies… Into the largest ones on Nasdaq https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T中文 · 翻译哇，$NBIS、$ALAB 和 $RKLB 被纳入纳斯达克 100 了！ 看着 Astera、Rocketlab 和 Weebius 从当年的小公司一步步成长… 现在变成纳斯达克上最大的那些之一，挺有意思的 https://t.co/ntqBmkri6T
- English · 原文There was interesting research published called "Democratization of Retail Trading". That did a study on 1.6 Million $RDDT WSB comments. and found: 1. "WSB outperformed almost all investment banks at detecting top-performing stocks." 2. "Their average returns compete with the best investment banks and outperform them in certain cases." Their conclusion? "We conclude that WSB may indeed constitute a freely accessible, valuable source of investment advice." I do find WSB is really early to names like $RKLB, $HOOD, and others, but often get timing extremely wrong (with options). I think X is where all the alpha is at nowadays.中文 · 翻译有一份挺有意思的研究发表了，题目叫《散户交易的民主化》。 他们研究了 160 万条 $RDDT WSB 评论。 结果发现： 1. "在挖掘表现最好的股票方面，WSB 几乎超过了所有投资银行。" 2. "他们的平均收益率能与顶级投行一较高下，某些情况下甚至更胜一筹。" 他们的结论是什么？ "我们认为，WSB 确实可能是一个免费、易得且很有价值的投资建议来源。" 我确实觉得 WSB 在 $RKLB、$HOOD 这些票上挖得很早，但时机经常抓得稀烂（尤其是用期权的时候）。 我觉得现在所有超额收益都在 X 上了。
- English · 原文Basically this… and it’s how cycles work. Retail was early and completely frontran institutions on next architectural shifts. There was close to 0 US institutional ownership on $SIVE. And now you see active institutions like JP Morgan, Fidelity Research, and others on the cap table. Happened last year with $NBIS. > I called out close to <30% institutional accumulation and said they wanted more shares. > institutions bought up majority of the float > bunch of negative articles back then, now it’s positive and ATHs. Two years before it was $RKLB > Was long at $16, but institutional analysts kept giving record low PTs and told retail to sell, although it had such a high reusable rocket rate. > retail sold, institutional ownership stocked up > now it’s ATHs I expect Foci (3363) to be a bottleneck for both $NVDA and $TSM optical programs and now there’s firms implying you to sell that at $2.5B valuations alongside $HIMX. So if you see negative sellside reports or an uncanny wave of negative news, if’s a good signal they need liquidity. Recently some smaller hedge funds have been so desperate that they’re likely even using bot farms on X that told retail to sell lol… which I’ve uncovered recently. Regardless, it’s also why I spend a lot of time doing research on individual names so people can build their own conviction in the face of noise. Unfortunately, it’s just a part of life how the modern liquidity cycles/transfers of US retail -> Institutions work. They don’t work in the best interest of retail investors.中文 · 翻译基本就是这样……这就是周期的运作方式。 散户入场早，完全抢先了机构，抓住了下一波架构转型。 当时 $SIVE 几乎没有美国机构持仓。 而现在你看到摩根大通、富达研究部等一些活跃机构都出现在了股东名单上。 去年 $NBIS 也发生了同样的事。 > 我
- English · 原文@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029... Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.中文 · 翻译@realstockfox 对，我挺确定的，$INTC、$RKLB 和 $NBIS 到 2029 年还会在…… 不需要不停买入新的/不同的美股仓位，就让你手里的那些随着时间慢慢复利就行。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
RKLB 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：