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历史观点（7 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.中文 · 翻译关于 $LPK：如果要猜的话，等他们全面放量后，市值大概在 30-50 亿美元还算合理。 对我来说这感觉更不对称，因为这就是个等待游戏，而且玻璃基板的客户他们已经拿到了。 小型设备供应商的瓶颈通常会被 TAM 限制住，规模很难到 200 亿美元以上，除非你是 ASML，或者像 KLAC 那样掌握多个瓶颈环节。 在放量前市值还这么小、能称得上“垄断”的标的真不多： 可能有的例子： - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~80 亿美元 - Towa (压缩邦定) ~20 亿美元 - Techwing (内存 handler / 晶圆级探针) ~15 亿美元 - MSScorps (CPO 检测)，但还在放量前。8.5 亿美元 - Riber (量子 MBE)，非常早期 ~3.5 亿美元 然后 LPK Laser 做玻璃核心基板（即将放量），市值约 7.3 亿美元，按主题来说应该比内存设备有更高溢价（比如主要先进封装转型、CPO 相关等）。 我还知道不少冷门化工垄断标的，但那些不太受关注，因为 BOM 比设备低得多。 但 LPK 的情况是： 比如：“全球主要玩家中 80% 的客户已选定 LPKF 设备”。 在玻璃基板放量中，TGV 的 LIDE 市占率目标 70%，这应该非常关键。（披露：持仓，上面列的名字除了 Techwing/Aixtron 都有，非投资建议）。 如果你看看 $AEHR 现在走到大约 35 亿美元市值，LPK 的路径大概就是： - < 5 亿美元：“哦他们没客户！” --->（大概现在就在这中间某处）。 - < 15 亿美元：“可能放量快来了！” - 30 亿美元以上：“看起来他们开始放量了。” 这是我个人经验里对瓶颈设备供应商周期循环的一个教训。
- English · 原文So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.中文 · 翻译所以短期拉升的话，我觉得 $LPK 可能会走得更陡峭一些。 因为设备供应商从认证阶段切换到量产阶段时——就像最近 $AEHR 和 $AIXA 那样——它们通常会被重新估值到 30-70 亿美元的市值。 但 99% 的公司从结构上看，天花板还是比较明显的。 长期来看，我个人觉得 $XFAB 的上行空间要大得多，如果它们能主导欧洲的光子供应链，并且用 MTP 做出一个 $TSEM 的替代方案的话。不过现在还处在更早期的阶段。
- English · 原文$AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times. https://t.co/It24lVLmBe中文 · 翻译$AEHR 收到某主要硅光子客户关于晶圆级老化测试系统的后续量产订单。 今日上涨 11.29%，报 $116。 仅仅两个月前它还在 30 多美元，好时光啊。https://t.co/It24lVLmBe
- English · 原文@AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.中文 · 翻译@AsianbeBlazin 对啊，但 $AEHR 这边最近也没什么大新闻。 不像 $AAOI 那种被激烈争论的股票，也就一两个人说 AEHR 会跌回 $25。
- English · 原文Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.中文 · 翻译Ayar 一开始是跟 $MTSI 和 $LITE 做多源采购。 然后把他们从官网撤掉了，很可能让 $SIVE 成了主供（大概率是第一代产品）。 每个超大规模云供应商都想搞多源采购，这没什么实质性的新信息。 Ayar 是 CPO 领域比较大的玩家之一，但如果 CPO 的对应关系没错，更大头的收入应该来自 $MRVL 的 Celestial，也许还有 Lightmatter/Lightelligence。 再说 Ayar 也只是众多客户中的一个……这还没算 $JBL 和其他用 $SIVE 的可插拔模块厂商。 甚至还包括 O-Net 在亚洲供应链中用 $SIVE 生产 ELS。 现在谁也准确估算不了营收，关键在于他们已经被认证进了这么多不同的超大规模云供应链——就像我之前追踪 $AAOI 或 $AEHR 时的情况一样。 一旦量开始爬坡……而且它是个超大规模云供应商，你就该预期营收数字会非常可观。
- English · 原文Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.中文 · 翻译好的，这是你最喜欢的 800V 直流相关的整理清单，各位朋友们。 1. $IFNNY - $1158亿 2. $ON - $462亿 3. 光宝科技 (2301) - $160.3亿 4. 6504.T - $141亿 5. $VICR - $128亿 6. $LFUS - $115.7亿 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $83.4亿 8. $VSH - $78.6亿 9. $ENPH - $73.6亿 10. $NVTS - $57.7亿 11. $POWI - $43亿 12. $BDC - $41.8亿 13. $EOSE - $38.6亿 14. $SEDG - $38.2亿 15. $AEHR - $31亿 16. 6890.T - $26.6亿 17. $WOLF - $21.6亿 18. $CWR.L - $17.5亿 19. $AMSC - $16.8亿 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $16.8亿 21. $XFAB - $15.4亿 22. $AOSL - $12.5亿 23. $HYLN - $12.3亿 24. $FCEL - $8.35亿 25. $IQE.L - $7.8亿 26. $ASYS - $2.76亿 27. $RELL - $2.39亿 28. 6844.T - $2.22亿 29. 4973.T - $2.07亿 30. $PAY.BR - $1.89亿 31. 6616.T - $1.86亿 32. 6882.T - $1.24亿 33. $IPWR - $9600万 另外还顺手把你们提到的像 $FCEL 或 $EOSE 这种有点沾边的也放进来了，虽然我不确定这是不是好的敞口。有人提到的像 $POET 那种明显不相关的就忽略了。 评论大概有500条，但估计X的机制限制了我能看到的内容。 咱们就看看你最有信心的那些想法表现如何吧。
- English · 原文Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE中文 · 翻译$AEHR 涨得不错，现在市值大约 35 亿美元。 最近没怎么提，因为也没什么新消息。 就是在等像 $LPK 这类玩家的量单，还有其他的。https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE