AEHRAehr Test Systems
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- As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates. Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC. Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small: Maybe you have stuff like: - Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B - Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B - Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B - MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M - Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc). Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment. But for lpk you have: eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”. 70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI). Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now: - <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!" ---> (probably somewhere in the middle here). - < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!" - $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp. Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.
- So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.
- $AEHR receives follow up production order from major Silicon Photonics Customer for wafer level burn in systems. Now up 11.29% today to $116. Only 2 months ago it was in the $30's, good times. https://t.co/It24lVLmBe
- @AsianbeBlazin Yep, but there hasn’t been any much news with $AEHR. Not really heavily debated stock like $AAOI aside from one or two comments saying AEHR would go back down to $25.
- Ayar started off multi-sourcing with $MTSI and $LITE. Then removed them from their website and likely made $SIVE primary source (likely for first gen). It's every hyperscaler supplier intention to multi-source, there's nothing material being added there. Ayar is one of the bigger CPO players, but if CPO mapping is correct more revenue should come from $MRVL Celestial, maybe Lightmatter/Lightelligence. Ayar is also just one customer of many... This is not even including $JBL + other pluggable players that use $SIVE. Or even O-Net producing ELS with $SIVE for Asian supply chains. Nobody can accurately estimate revenues right now, it's just that they've been qualified into so many different hyperscaler supply chains like what I've done previously with $AAOI or $AEHR. That when volume ramp happens... And it's a hyperscaler supplier, you expect revenue numbers to be extremely material.
- Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.
- Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE