MU美光
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历史观点（27 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Just Elon Musk casually sounding the alarm. On the massive demand + price hikes for $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung memory relative to supply. He probably has higher visibility into the memory bottleneck than others… https://t.co/iszX0YJHuS中文 · 翻译Elon Musk 就这么随口拉响了警报。 关于 $MU / SK 海力士 / 三星存储芯片相对于供应量的巨大需求 + 涨价潮。 他很可能比其他人更清楚存储瓶颈的情况…… https://t.co/iszX0YJHuS
- English · 原文FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.中文 · 翻译说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。 还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。 所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。 台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.中文 · 翻译今天有个很有意思的发言：$MU 的 CEO 预测，受仿人机器人驱动，会出现一个持续数十年的内存需求周期。 “他说，仿人机器人所需的存储容量大约是今天 L2+ 级别自动驾驶汽车所需的十倍。” “而且这股需求浪潮预计会在本十年结束前开始。” 他还提到，“长期来看，我们预计端侧 AI 的价值，加上被压抑的换机需求，将共同推动内存需求的增长。” 这其实也是另一个趋势（Apple Intelligence 目前确实拉胯，但我相信我们在本地化/边缘 AI 方面肯定会看到创新）。 感觉从 $TSM 董事长、$TSLA 的 Elon Musk，到 $MU 的 CEO，所有行业领袖都把仿人机器人视为下一个大趋势，所以物理 AI 很可能就是下一步。 我有点好奇，全球的存储供应够不够用。或者说，我们能不能看到足够多的技术突破，把内存的需求量降下来。
- English · 原文@AliTava2020 $DRAM is one of the more positive ETFs I have a view on since it's exposure to SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU, and $SNDK. Which is everything people kinda want for memory exposure.中文 · 翻译@AliTava2020 $DRAM 是我比较看好的 ETF 之一，因为它投的是 SK Hynix、Samsung、$MU 和 $SNDK。 这基本上就是大家想要的那种存储类敞口。
- English · 原文@Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.中文 · 翻译@Zenctwill $MU 的财报可能对 SK 海力士/三星有很好的参考意义，这两家占了 KOSPI 指数的大部分权重（被动资金也是）。所以 SK 指数走高的概率更大。 这对 AI 需求也是个积极的信号，这也是为什么 $LITE、$AAOI 和其他股票在盘后小幅上涨。
- English · 原文Always amazing looking at $MU earnings: Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est. EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est. Forecasts: Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31. “Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements” "When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these" Looks like memory demand has become structural… But great earnings to show up the AI trade is continuing to ramp up.中文 · 翻译看 $MU 的财报总是很精彩： 营收：$414.6 亿 vs 预期 $358 亿 EPS：$25.11 vs 预期 $20.78 预测： 营收：$490 亿至 $510 亿，vs 预期 $432.4 亿 EPS：$30.00 至 $32.00，vs 预期 $25.31 “美光周三表示，已签署 16 份长期协议” “完成后，我们预计公司约一半或更多营收将来自这些协议” 看起来内存需求已经变成结构性了… 但这份亮眼的财报正好证明，AI 交易仍在持续升温。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.中文 · 翻译这次回调对我来说个人就像个明确的买入机会，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM。 因为我们在没有任何新的实质宏观经济数据（周四才出）的情况下，就因为“3次加息”这种扯淡叙事经历了一波猛跌。 如果机构真的相信美银抛出来的“3次加息”这种卖方垃圾： 它们会在 CME/预测市场上借此获利。 而市场仍在预测7月有74%的概率不加息。但它们并没有这么做。 所以它们是在给散户投资者喂屎。
- English · 原文Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.中文 · 翻译提醒一下：三个月前，X 上 99% 的人都在看空存储… 从那以后： $MU $380 → $1122（+195.26%） $SNDK $565 → $2155（+281.42%） $EWY $132 → $219（+65.91%） SK 海力士 849K → 2,685,000 韩元（+215.5%） 三星 172K → 362,000 韩元（+110.7%） 如果你看到一堆关于存储股的预测，比如三星 2028 年要成为全球最赚钱的公司之类。 这时候最好跳出当下的叙事框架独立想想，别被"石油、LNG、氦气、伊朗"这些话题带偏。 现在那些光模块股和它们到 2027、2028 年的预测，大概率也是同样情况。 不过我确实觉得光电和存储是当下两个最重要的主题，只不过光电在这一轮超级周期里还处于非常早期的阶段。
- English · 原文@The_AI_Investor thanks for baiting me in with a stupid rely. I modeled $MU gross margins way ahead of time and got that spot on months before. That's called pricing in earnings ahead of time. After that there were more DRAM/NAND hikes.中文 · 翻译@The_AI_Investor 谢谢你的愚蠢回复把我钓出来。 我早早就建模了 $MU 的毛利率，几个月前就准确预测了那个点位。 这就叫提前把财报给定价了。那之后还有更多 DRAM/NAND 涨价。
- English · 原文I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.中文 · 翻译我早就说过 $MU 看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。现在市值都到 1.23 万亿了。 从 2025 年那会儿就开始更多讨论三星电子 / SK 海力士了。 今年 1 月就更集中布局存储这个方向，比如 $SNDK 和其他几只。 我很开心美光 + 存储这条线的预测，行情正在应验！ 希望 $EWY 的多头仓位，大家也赚得开心，涨了很多。
- English · 原文I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.中文 · 翻译我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。 现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。 连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。 但那些接盘的还不肯承认。 我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。 要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？ 光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。 但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。 而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back. Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex. Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen. Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT中文 · 翻译摩根士丹利：$NVDA 否认了关于 800V DC 被推迟的报道。 SemiAnalysis 最近的报告与我们在 Computex 上的核查相反。 兄弟，这绝对是我见过的最蠢的 CPO/800V 抛售了。 自从他们宣称 $MU 拿不到任何英伟达 HBM4 份额后，市场就开始抛售 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT
- English · 原文I’m just sharing what’s imminent with architectural shifts pushed by $NVDA. Retail managed to completely frontrun institutions on multiple names, but institutions need liquidity to enter. It’s just interesting how every major industry player confirms the same timelines, then a questionable analyst firm that said $MU had no HBM4 share could write a hit piece then be completely incorrect again.中文 · 翻译我只是在分享 $NVDA 推动架构变革下即将发生的事。 零售交易者成功地在好几个标的上完全抢跑了机构，但机构需要流动性才能进场。 有趣的是，每个行业主要玩家都确认了相同的时间线，然后一家曾声称 $MU 没有 HBM4 份额的可疑分析机构，就能写一篇黑稿，结果再次完全错误。
- English · 原文@NathanJoooo This was in response to that erroneous article. I would trust Foxconn/Lumentum/Nvidia industry projections over an analyst firm that messed up $MU HBM4 so badly and said “no” to all their timelines together中文 · 翻译@NathanJoooo 这是针对那篇错误报道的回应。 我更相信富士康/Lumentum/英伟达的行业预测，而不是一家把 $MU HBM4 搞得一塌糊涂、并对所有时间线都说了“不”的调研机构。
- English · 原文CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff) Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after) I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy. Appreciate the buying opportunity though.中文 · 翻译CPO 向外扩展时间表比预期提前： > 鸿海：预估单位出货量上修，光交换器提前出货给 $NVDA 今天 $LITE 瑞穗科技大会上的 CPO 向上扩展时间表： “公司预计在 2027 年下半年开始出货向上扩展的光学产品，2028 年正式放量” $NVDA 网络部门 SVP：“我们今年下半年就要开始上量 CPO”。没有任何延期的迹象。 我选择相信行业预测。他们都一致强调：向外扩展的 CPO 下半年起加速；向上扩展的 CPO 从 2027 下半年开始（主要增长在 2028）。 而不是相信动机可疑的分析机构——那家说 $MU 在 HBM4 Rubin 上没有份额（引发了一轮抛售）。 结果美光没过多久就宣布要进入量产（之后不久就翻了好几倍）。 我觉得那些因为这份错误报告而做多临时桥接架构的人，怕是不会太开心。 不过还是要感谢这个买入机会。
- English · 原文Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO中文 · 翻译哦你看……$NVDA 的 CEO 警告说，由于 AI 基础设施的规模需求激增，内存短缺预计会持续很多年。 明天还会有更多公告。 $MU 和 $EWY（三星 / SK 海力士）的营业利润预期，现在看起来也没那么夸张了吧？https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
- English · 原文Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)中文 · 翻译市场回调的时候还挺有意思的。 从 $NVDA 跌 4.87% 到 $MU 跌 7.03%。高贝塔票像 $PL 直接跌了 22.02%。 挺好笑的，媒体总在那拼命解释，比如： "博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录暴跌" 博通预测需求旺盛到 2028 年，纯粹是编故事。AI 基建这边除了资本支出在增加，什么都没变。 真正实质性的变化是加息概率上升了。 但每年总有那么几次，在大涨新高之后冒出这类随机回调。 我个人不会去押注美联储决策的概率，继续拿着现有公司指引的仓位（比如 $AAOI 2027 上半年 4.71 亿美元）。
- English · 原文I’ve repeated this for every single stock, but insider selling means literally nothing. A managing director of wireless transferring ownership over to US investors doesn’t change any fundamentals about the business. CEO of $NVDA and $MU sell shares all the time but nobody bats an eye for a reason中文 · 翻译这一条我对每支股票都反复强调过：内部人减持根本说明不了任何问题。 一位无线业务董事总经理把股份转给美国投资者，不会改变这家公司的基本面哪怕一丁点。 $NVDA 和 $MU 的 CEO 也一直在卖股票，但大家从来不眨一下眼，这背后是有原因的。
- English · 原文I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.中文 · 翻译从没想过有一天会看到 $GOOGL 需要募集 800 亿美元搞 AI 资本开支…… 接着沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 又给超大规模 AI 基建砸钱。 - 400 亿 ATM（在架发行），300 亿增发，伯克希尔 100 亿 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO 到联发科到 $TSM 到 $MU 的上游生态应该要起飞了。 不过谷歌的股东们恐怕没那么开心，因为这么大手笔的资本开支不是靠自由现金流撑起来的。
- English · 原文And a few months later... my $EWY leaps are now up 485%. From IV expansion and directional memory longs. Unfortunately I did see a lot of people sell during the Iran volatility, due to doomposting everywhere on X. But returns going long on the memory sector from Samsing SK Hynix / $MU have been absolutely disgusting to watch. If you can model Samsung / SK Hynix becoming the most profitable companies in the world in 2028... Maybe it's a good idea to just embrace the volatility and let that thesis play out.中文 · 翻译几个月后……我的 $EWY 长期期权已经涨了 485%。 靠的是波动率扩张和方向性记忆芯片多头。 可惜的是，我看到很多人因为 X 上到处是末日论，在伊朗那波波动时卖掉了。 但做多记忆芯片板块——从三星、SK Hynix / $MU 拿到的回报，简直好看到离谱。 如果你能推算出三星 / SK Hynix 在 2028 年成为全球最赚钱的公司…… 那也许就该拥抱波动，让这个逻辑自然兑现。
- English · 原文And now… $MU finally hits a $1 Trillion marketcap. I did say this looks like the next $NVDA given how memory demand looks structural with AI. This stock probably made a lot of millionaires going from $80 to $887. https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c中文 · 翻译现在……$MU 终于站上了 1 万亿美元市值。 我之前就说过，考虑到 AI 带来的内存需求是结构性的，这看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。 这只股票从 $80 涨到 $887，估计造了不少百万富翁。https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM中文 · 翻译??? $RDDT 的投资者智商真的比 $IREN 的还低吗？ 我做了那么多关于 $AXTI 的研究... 可不是为了让你们在它身上赚 380%，然后把它说成 $MU 的内存竞争对手，接着又说是骗局？ 技术素养的缺失，正是我被那边封禁的原因。https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM