MU美光
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
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MU 整体偏多（看多 31 · 看空 0）
受益于AI资本支出，推动内存元件的需求增长。
最近发言：2026/09/05 08:11 · 信心分 4/10
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历史观点（46 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery. Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed! Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others. But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does. I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect: - There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end. - $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising. - $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100) - and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods. But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements. Same concept can be applied to other sectors.中文 · 翻译既然 $MU 到 $SNDK 都已经实现了大幅反弹。 很高兴能再次提醒大家，内存瓶颈可没变！ CW激光器… 衬底… 或其他领域也一样。 但短期情绪（取决于价格/宏观因素）却常常变动。 我认为很多供需不平衡的问题比人们预期的要糟： - 今天日经指数上有些日本分销商说，内存需求缺口已达40-60%（比供应量高出67-150%）。并且普遍价格在年底前会上涨50%。 - $SPCX 没有被计入1.3万亿美元的超大规模厂商资本支出数据（我记得 Wells Fargo 等机构估计人工智能资本支出约为26
- English · 原文Okay just to simplify this: There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers. A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos. Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato. But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet.. Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer. So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up. So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots. So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds. But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price. now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings. Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027? All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.中文 · 翻译好吧，简单来说就是这样： 想象一下，$NVDA 有个老饕，胃口特别大。NVIDIA 只想从农民手里买那些高价土豆。 之前有个土豆种植户 $MU，他原本是卖胡萝卜的……现在也把地都改种土豆了。 NVIDIA 胃口太大，导致了严重的土豆荒。所以其他那些原本种胡萝卜的，像 SK Hynix 和 Samsung，都把农田产能转去种土豆了。 但是……人总要吃饭的啊。而且胡萝卜是他们日常健康饮食的重要组成部分。 现在，除了像“ESMT”这样的老牌胡萝卜种植户之外，市面上已经没胡萝卜了。 结果就是，大家现在都得从 ESMT 那买胡萝卜，供不应求，价格自然就涨了。 所以 ESMT 需要更多的胡萝卜种子（从 PSMC 那里进货）。但 PSMC 的胡萝卜种子也不多了，不够用来种胡萝卜。 于是 PSMC 就向 ESMT 提高了种子的价格。 但 ESMT 卖胡萝卜的价格，比 PSMC 调高胡萝卜种子价格的幅度要高得多。 现在……ESMT 靠卖胡萝卜赚得盆满钵满，根据七月份的盈利，它的市盈率只有 1.9 倍。 ESMT 能不能一直把这些胡萝卜卖到 2027 年呢？ 其他所有农民都觉得能，因为把他们宝贵的土豆农场再转回胡萝卜农场，既难，也没啥动力。
- English · 原文$MU: goes from $133B -> $1T+ in a year. $RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB中文 · 翻译$MU：一年内市值从 1330 亿美元涨到 1 万亿多美元。 $RDDT 在经历两个月回调后：“垃圾股” https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB
- English · 原文Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...中文 · 翻译再给大家看看 $SNDK、$SKHY、$MU、Kioxia 以及其他 NAND 厂商的需求不平衡情况。 群联（Phison）CEO 说：“2027 年的产能瓶颈会比 2026 年更严重。” “上游供应商从建厂、设备投资到实际投产，需要长达 4 年的时间。” “随着需求爆炸式增长，而供应扩张有限，NAND 短缺问题可能持续数年。” 我不太同意那些说存储芯片行情，尤其是 2026 年的 NAND 瓶颈会结束的说法…
- English · 原文You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.中文 · 翻译你可以看看这些股票今年以来的表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU，我都是今年年初或去年就建仓的。 然后告诉我你是不是还那么想。
- English · 原文My memory bags are decently heavy, thank you for asking. Just out of curiosity, you think 16+ long term agreements with $MU. And $SNDK 80% gross margin projections through fiscal 2030 is a cyclical commodity? (their LTAs already cover majority of 2028 output). This is quite a long cycle if you ask me...中文 · 翻译我的内存股仓位挺重的，谢谢您问了。 纯属好奇，你觉得 $MU 有超过 16 份长期协议，以及 $SNDK 的毛利率预测到 2030 财年能达到 80%（他们的长期协议已经覆盖了 2028 年大部分产量），这还算周期性商品吗？ 要我说，这周期可真够长的了…
- English · 原文The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D中文 · 翻译$SHKY、三星、$SNDK、$MU，存储瓶颈一直没变，各位。https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D
- English · 原文SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM. $SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026. - Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested - industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage - Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources. Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.中文 · 翻译SK 海力士、$MU 和三星的 2027 年 DRAM/HBM 产能都已售罄。 $SNDK、三星、美光的当前年度 NAND 产能也已售完，预计 Kioxia 和 SK 海力士将在 2026 年 8 月前完成分配。 - 客户只能分到他们最初要求采购量的 60% 到 70% - 业内人士指出，2027 年将进入内存芯片供应最紧张的时刻 - 分配数量基本确定，但最终出货价格将在临近交付时确定 来源：Digitimes，援引业内消息人士。 当这些内存芯片的产能都已售罄时，很难想象那些关于 2027 年初到年中会出现“供过于求”的说法。
- English · 原文Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.中文 · 翻译整理了些 $TSLA 财报电话会议记录里的重点： 埃隆·马斯克在二季度财报会议记录里说："我觉得擎天柱（Optimus）会是史上最伟大的产品。" 甚至在一季度，埃隆也曾表示："我觉得擎天柱会是我们最大的产品。不只是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，很可能也是有史以来最伟大的产品。" 他还说："我对此深信不疑。" 埃隆对人形机器人的信心如此坚定，无论是
- English · 原文Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.中文 · 翻译Meritz证券的金善宇：“现在不是卖出三星电子和 $SKHY 的时候。” 他们声称市场对半导体的情况存在过度误解。而且今年下半年DRAM短缺会加剧。 - 2026年下半年：“供应商只能满足75%–80%的DRAM需求。” - 2027年：“预计满足率将降至60%左右。” 文章中，他们附上了市场预测，显示SK Hynix在2027年的市盈率为3.5倍，三星的市盈率为3.9倍。 我觉得 $INTC CEO 关于时间节点的说法最到位，他说：“内存供应或价格至少在2028年之前不会得到缓解。” 尤其是在 $MU 签了16份带有有利的照付不议大宗供货长期协议（LTA）之后……内存需求看起来是结构性的。
- English · 原文Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.中文 · 翻译今天，$MU 宣布和 $QCOM 签署了内存长期供货协议（LTAs）。 有趣的是，美光（Micron）随后竟然跌了 5.37%。 签了这么多结构性协议，感觉内存股或者 AI 股本身并没有什么问题？ 更像是去杠杆化或者爆仓潮的尾声。
- English · 原文@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.中文 · 翻译@michaelsikand DRAM 下季度涨价 20% 以上，$SNDK 与 $META 签订了长期供货协议，$MU 也有 16+ 份长期协议。 市场：接着就开始抛售内存股。 800G 光模块的出货预期大幅上调？激光器件的订单已经排到 2029 年初，完全售罄了？ 市场：抛售光子学和激光公司的股票。
- English · 原文I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).中文 · 翻译我没看到任何根本性的问题。市场很可能会时不时出现大幅回调，用来清洗保证金/杠杆，然后才会继续上涨。 这个月感觉就像一年中这样的时刻？ $POET 证实了那些大型光学巨头，比如 $LITE、$COHR，未来两年订单都排满了，光子学领域可能要到 2029 年。 Innolight 证实了 3 天前上调了 800G 收发器预期，所以这对 $AAOI 和其他公司来说应该是利好。 三星成为了全球最赚钱的公司，并继续预测未来几个季度 DRAM 价格上涨。$MU 签署了 16+ 份长期协议（LTA），这表明内存需求是结构性的... $META 加上超大规模数据中心资本支出计划都处于预测的较高区间。 我不会把短期价格波动和长期趋势混为一谈。就像 $AEHR 的情况那样，市场恢复通常会非常快（比如，一个月的回调可能一夜之间就被抹平）。
- English · 原文Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).中文 · 翻译嗯，看来根据集邦咨询 (Trendforce) 的报告，SLC NAND 预计在 2026 年下半年会上涨 120-170%。 虽然 $MU 占 21%，Kioxia 占 20%，是最大的份额持有者，但更明显的受益者似乎是： 1. 华邦电 (2344)：占 SLC NAND 市场约 15% 2. 旺宏 (2337)：市场份额约 11% 3. SkyHigh Memory 通过 Puya Semi：市场份额约 14% 考虑到美光 (Micron) 市值已达 1 万亿美元，其他公司相对于 SLC NAND 的总潜在市场 (TAM) 来说，规模有点大。 (来源：2026 年第一季度华邦电演示文稿/集邦咨询)。
- English · 原文Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.中文 · 翻译就随便说一下我的看法： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 这些股票，还有其他一些，都跟着一起崩盘…… 这些今天目前为止跌幅都在 -4% 到 -10% 以上。 那这可能就和个股基本面没什么关系了。 像瀑布式保证金清算这类原因导致的无差别抛售，如果标的公司基本面在改善的话，通常会带来非常不错的机会。
- English · 原文@VixOver20 They’re publishing stupid sensational reports. By taking a new architecture then overreaching by saying the entire TAM will drop 40-50%. It’s like if I said OpenAI optimized memory compression so $MU TAM drops 80%.中文 · 翻译@VixOver20 他们正在发布那些愚蠢又耸人听闻的报告。 他们就是抓住一个新的架构，然后夸大其词，说整个潜在市场规模（TAM）会下降40-50%。 这就好比我说OpenAI优化了内存压缩技术，然后 $MU 的TAM就下降80%了。
- English · 原文Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore. There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back. I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and roadmap.中文 · 翻译这么说吧，我觉得市场已经不把他们看作是客观的了。 他们一直倾向于对一些细致的技术细节发表过于夸大的说法。比如几个月前，关于 $MU 在 $NVDA 的 HBM4 方面没有份额的说法。 我个人现在就只听 $NVDA 的官方声明和路线图了。
- English · 原文Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations. Something to note: Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters. But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation. I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names... I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.中文 · 翻译汇总一下存储芯片的最新情况： - $MU 牵头在日本广岛投资 1.5 万亿日元，约合 93 亿美元。（这对 Disco、Advantest、Resonac、Towa 来说是利好，因为资本支出是本地化的。） - 摩根士丹利指出，NAND 供应短缺将持续
- English · 原文@gurukid5995 Markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. Memory from $SNDK to $MU was the market's main focus this month, while optical names like $AAOI corrected. I think we'll see a rotation back into photonics eventually, it's personally my highest concentration theme.中文 · 翻译@gurukid5995 市场倾向于从一个瓶颈轮动到另一个瓶颈。 本月市场主要关注的是存储板块，从 $SNDK 到 $MU，与此同时像 $AAOI 这样的光学股则出现了回调。 我觉得我们最终会看到资金重新轮动回光子学板块，这对我个人来说是集中度最高的主题。
- English · 原文Just Elon Musk casually sounding the alarm. On the massive demand + price hikes for $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung memory relative to supply. He probably has higher visibility into the memory bottleneck than others… https://t.co/iszX0YJHuS中文 · 翻译Elon Musk 就这么随口拉响了警报。 关于 $MU / SK 海力士 / 三星存储芯片相对于供应量的巨大需求 + 涨价潮。 他很可能比其他人更清楚存储瓶颈的情况…… https://t.co/iszX0YJHuS
- English · 原文FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.中文 · 翻译说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。 还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。 所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。 台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.中文 · 翻译今天有个很有意思的发言：$MU 的 CEO 预测，受仿人机器人驱动，会出现一个持续数十年的内存需求周期。 “他说，仿人机器人所需的存储容量大约是今天 L2+ 级别自动驾驶汽车所需的十倍。” “而且这股需求浪潮预计会在本十年结束前开始。” 他还提到，“长期来看，我们预计端侧 AI 的价值，加上被压抑的换机需求，将共同推动内存需求的增长。” 这其实也是另一个趋势（Apple Intelligence 目前确实拉胯，但我相信我们在本地化/边缘 AI 方面肯定会看到创新）。 感觉从 $TSM 董事长、$TSLA 的 Elon Musk，到 $MU 的 CEO，所有行业领袖都把仿人机器人视为下一个大趋势，所以物理 AI 很可能就是下一步。 我有点好奇，全球的存储供应够不够用。或者说，我们能不能看到足够多的技术突破，把内存的需求量降下来。
- English · 原文@AliTava2020 $DRAM is one of the more positive ETFs I have a view on since it's exposure to SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU, and $SNDK. Which is everything people kinda want for memory exposure.中文 · 翻译@AliTava2020 $DRAM 是我比较看好的 ETF 之一，因为它投的是 SK Hynix、Samsung、$MU 和 $SNDK。 这基本上就是大家想要的那种存储类敞口。
- English · 原文@Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.中文 · 翻译@Zenctwill $MU 的财报可能对 SK 海力士/三星有很好的参考意义，这两家占了 KOSPI 指数的大部分权重（被动资金也是）。所以 SK 指数走高的概率更大。 这对 AI 需求也是个积极的信号，这也是为什么 $LITE、$AAOI 和其他股票在盘后小幅上涨。
- English · 原文Always amazing looking at $MU earnings: Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est. EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est. Forecasts: Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31. “Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements” "When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these" Looks like memory demand has become structural… But great earnings to show up the AI trade is continuing to ramp up.中文 · 翻译看 $MU 的财报总是很精彩： 营收：$414.6 亿 vs 预期 $358 亿 EPS：$25.11 vs 预期 $20.78 预测： 营收：$490 亿至 $510 亿，vs 预期 $432.4 亿 EPS：$30.00 至 $32.00，vs 预期 $25.31 “美光周三表示，已签署 16 份长期协议” “完成后，我们预计公司约一半或更多营收将来自这些协议” 看起来内存需求已经变成结构性了… 但这份亮眼的财报正好证明，AI 交易仍在持续升温。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.中文 · 翻译这次回调对我来说个人就像个明确的买入机会，从 $MU、$INTC 到 $TSM。 因为我们在没有任何新的实质宏观经济数据（周四才出）的情况下，就因为“3次加息”这种扯淡叙事经历了一波猛跌。 如果机构真的相信美银抛出来的“3次加息”这种卖方垃圾： 它们会在 CME/预测市场上借此获利。 而市场仍在预测7月有74%的概率不加息。但它们并没有这么做。 所以它们是在给散户投资者喂屎。
- English · 原文Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.中文 · 翻译提醒一下：三个月前，X 上 99% 的人都在看空存储… 从那以后： $MU $380 → $1122（+195.26%） $SNDK $565 → $2155（+281.42%） $EWY $132 → $219（+65.91%） SK 海力士 849K → 2,685,000 韩元（+215.5%） 三星 172K → 362,000 韩元（+110.7%） 如果你看到一堆关于存储股的预测，比如三星 2028 年要成为全球最赚钱的公司之类。 这时候最好跳出当下的叙事框架独立想想，别被"石油、LNG、氦气、伊朗"这些话题带偏。 现在那些光模块股和它们到 2027、2028 年的预测，大概率也是同样情况。 不过我确实觉得光电和存储是当下两个最重要的主题，只不过光电在这一轮超级周期里还处于非常早期的阶段。
- English · 原文@The_AI_Investor thanks for baiting me in with a stupid rely. I modeled $MU gross margins way ahead of time and got that spot on months before. That's called pricing in earnings ahead of time. After that there were more DRAM/NAND hikes.中文 · 翻译@The_AI_Investor 谢谢你的愚蠢回复把我钓出来。 我早早就建模了 $MU 的毛利率，几个月前就准确预测了那个点位。 这就叫提前把财报给定价了。那之后还有更多 DRAM/NAND 涨价。
- English · 原文I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.中文 · 翻译我早就说过 $MU 看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。现在市值都到 1.23 万亿了。 从 2025 年那会儿就开始更多讨论三星电子 / SK 海力士了。 今年 1 月就更集中布局存储这个方向，比如 $SNDK 和其他几只。 我很开心美光 + 存储这条线的预测，行情正在应验！ 希望 $EWY 的多头仓位，大家也赚得开心，涨了很多。
- English · 原文I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.中文 · 翻译我早期写过一篇关于这三大主题的研报： Neoclouds、光子学和存储。 现在，坐下来看着我从 $AAOI 到 $EWY 再到 $NBIS 的所有主题构想一一兑现，还挺有意思的。 连我的警告也说中了，$IREN 还在原地踏步，因为 ATM 抽了 60 亿美元的持续抛压，而 $NBIS 却一路新高。 但那些接盘的还不肯承认。 我觉得关键部分是知道市场下一步的主题是什么，然后挑出赢家 + 重仓押注。 要是你押注软件股，选了理想的标的，最后可能未必多开心？ 光子学在这三个里面，大概还是最早期的一个。 但我能看到 Nebius 有一天会像 AWS 那样。 而 $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung 如果存储需求是结构性的，没准能变成迷你版的 $NVDA。
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back. Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex. Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen. Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT中文 · 翻译摩根士丹利：$NVDA 否认了关于 800V DC 被推迟的报道。 SemiAnalysis 最近的报告与我们在 Computex 上的核查相反。 兄弟，这绝对是我见过的最蠢的 CPO/800V 抛售了。 自从他们宣称 $MU 拿不到任何英伟达 HBM4 份额后，市场就开始抛售 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT
- English · 原文I’m just sharing what’s imminent with architectural shifts pushed by $NVDA. Retail managed to completely frontrun institutions on multiple names, but institutions need liquidity to enter. It’s just interesting how every major industry player confirms the same timelines, then a questionable analyst firm that said $MU had no HBM4 share could write a hit piece then be completely incorrect again.中文 · 翻译我只是在分享 $NVDA 推动架构变革下即将发生的事。 零售交易者成功地在好几个标的上完全抢跑了机构，但机构需要流动性才能进场。 有趣的是，每个行业主要玩家都确认了相同的时间线，然后一家曾声称 $MU 没有 HBM4 份额的可疑分析机构，就能写一篇黑稿，结果再次完全错误。
- English · 原文@NathanJoooo This was in response to that erroneous article. I would trust Foxconn/Lumentum/Nvidia industry projections over an analyst firm that messed up $MU HBM4 so badly and said “no” to all their timelines together中文 · 翻译@NathanJoooo 这是针对那篇错误报道的回应。 我更相信富士康/Lumentum/英伟达的行业预测，而不是一家把 $MU HBM4 搞得一塌糊涂、并对所有时间线都说了“不”的调研机构。
- English · 原文CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff) Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after) I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy. Appreciate the buying opportunity though.中文 · 翻译CPO 向外扩展时间表比预期提前： > 鸿海：预估单位出货量上修，光交换器提前出货给 $NVDA 今天 $LITE 瑞穗科技大会上的 CPO 向上扩展时间表： “公司预计在 2027 年下半年开始出货向上扩展的光学产品，2028 年正式放量” $NVDA 网络部门 SVP：“我们今年下半年就要开始上量 CPO”。没有任何延期的迹象。 我选择相信行业预测。他们都一致强调：向外扩展的 CPO 下半年起加速；向上扩展的 CPO 从 2027 下半年开始（主要增长在 2028）。 而不是相信动机可疑的分析机构——那家说 $MU 在 HBM4 Rubin 上没有份额（引发了一轮抛售）。 结果美光没过多久就宣布要进入量产（之后不久就翻了好几倍）。 我觉得那些因为这份错误报告而做多临时桥接架构的人，怕是不会太开心。 不过还是要感谢这个买入机会。
- English · 原文Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO中文 · 翻译哦你看……$NVDA 的 CEO 警告说，由于 AI 基础设施的规模需求激增，内存短缺预计会持续很多年。 明天还会有更多公告。 $MU 和 $EWY（三星 / SK 海力士）的营业利润预期，现在看起来也没那么夸张了吧？https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
- English · 原文Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)中文 · 翻译市场回调的时候还挺有意思的。 从 $NVDA 跌 4.87% 到 $MU 跌 7.03%。高贝塔票像 $PL 直接跌了 22.02%。 挺好笑的，媒体总在那拼命解释，比如： "博通给芯片股蒙上阴影，美光遭遇创纪录暴跌" 博通预测需求旺盛到 2028 年，纯粹是编故事。AI 基建这边除了资本支出在增加，什么都没变。 真正实质性的变化是加息概率上升了。 但每年总有那么几次，在大涨新高之后冒出这类随机回调。 我个人不会去押注美联储决策的概率，继续拿着现有公司指引的仓位（比如 $AAOI 2027 上半年 4.71 亿美元）。
- English · 原文I’ve repeated this for every single stock, but insider selling means literally nothing. A managing director of wireless transferring ownership over to US investors doesn’t change any fundamentals about the business. CEO of $NVDA and $MU sell shares all the time but nobody bats an eye for a reason中文 · 翻译这一条我对每支股票都反复强调过：内部人减持根本说明不了任何问题。 一位无线业务董事总经理把股份转给美国投资者，不会改变这家公司的基本面哪怕一丁点。 $NVDA 和 $MU 的 CEO 也一直在卖股票，但大家从来不眨一下眼，这背后是有原因的。
- English · 原文I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.中文 · 翻译从没想过有一天会看到 $GOOGL 需要募集 800 亿美元搞 AI 资本开支…… 接着沃伦·巴菲特的 $BRK.A 又给超大规模 AI 基建砸钱。 - 400 亿 ATM（在架发行），300 亿增发，伯克希尔 100 亿 从 $LITE 到 $AVGO 到联发科到 $TSM 到 $MU 的上游生态应该要起飞了。 不过谷歌的股东们恐怕没那么开心，因为这么大手笔的资本开支不是靠自由现金流撑起来的。
- English · 原文And a few months later... my $EWY leaps are now up 485%. From IV expansion and directional memory longs. Unfortunately I did see a lot of people sell during the Iran volatility, due to doomposting everywhere on X. But returns going long on the memory sector from Samsing SK Hynix / $MU have been absolutely disgusting to watch. If you can model Samsung / SK Hynix becoming the most profitable companies in the world in 2028... Maybe it's a good idea to just embrace the volatility and let that thesis play out.中文 · 翻译几个月后……我的 $EWY 长期期权已经涨了 485%。 靠的是波动率扩张和方向性记忆芯片多头。 可惜的是，我看到很多人因为 X 上到处是末日论，在伊朗那波波动时卖掉了。 但做多记忆芯片板块——从三星、SK Hynix / $MU 拿到的回报，简直好看到离谱。 如果你能推算出三星 / SK Hynix 在 2028 年成为全球最赚钱的公司…… 那也许就该拥抱波动，让这个逻辑自然兑现。
- English · 原文And now… $MU finally hits a $1 Trillion marketcap. I did say this looks like the next $NVDA given how memory demand looks structural with AI. This stock probably made a lot of millionaires going from $80 to $887. https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c中文 · 翻译现在……$MU 终于站上了 1 万亿美元市值。 我之前就说过，考虑到 AI 带来的内存需求是结构性的，这看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。 这只股票从 $80 涨到 $887，估计造了不少百万富翁。https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c
- English · 原文Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.中文 · 翻译有意思的是，很多公司其实会同时出现在不同的供应链里。 一个可能的例子是：$SIVE 作为波士顿动力的上游激光供应商，路径是这样的： Sivers → $AEVA FMCW（连续波 DFB 激光器）→ LG Innotek → 波士顿动力。 坦白说，我一开始是因为 4D AI 才看好 Aeva 的。 后来才发现 Sivers 是他们 4D FMCW 激光雷达的高确信度激光供应商。 所以你看，你可以通过光子学同时参与机器人赛道，因为同样的连续波激光器也用于超大规模 AI 数据中心。 不过要说到近期的收入爬坡，大概率是 $SIVE 通过 Aeva 为 $NVDA 自动驾驶相关架构提供激光器的量产规模。 人形机器人可能要到 2028 年之后？ 你也可以找一些更间接的参与方式，比如 MU 做内存、$INTC 做边缘 CPU，不过当然市场上也有更直接的标的。 我记得我之前已经聊过不少名字了，比如 $VPG 或者 Harmonic Drive。但搞笑的是，像 $SIVE 这样的 CPO 玩家，反而是前沿物理 AI 开发的核心部分。
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM中文 · 翻译??? $RDDT 的投资者智商真的比 $IREN 的还低吗？ 我做了那么多关于 $AXTI 的研究... 可不是为了让你们在它身上赚 380%，然后把它说成 $MU 的内存竞争对手，接着又说是骗局？ 技术素养的缺失，正是我被那边封禁的原因。https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
MU 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：