MUMicron Technology
31Bull0Bear15Mention
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
Focused on AI photonics and semiconductor supply chains — sourcing asymmetric setups from bottoms-up value-chain research. Tracks CPO & optical modules closely, with ongoing deep-dives on SIVE, AAOI, LITE, POET.
Quick verdict
MU is net bullish (31 bull · 0 bear)
Benefits from AI capex flow, driving demand for memory components.
Last spoke: 09/05/2026, 08:11 · conviction 4/10
8-10 confidence views use larger markers▲ Bull▼ Bear● Mention
View History (46, newest first)
- Now that $MU to $SNDK have pulled a major recovery. Good to have a reminder that the memory bottleneck hasn’t changed! Same with CW lasers… substrates… or others. But short term sentiment (depending on prices/macro) often does. I think a lot of demand imbalances get worse than people expect: - There’s some Japanese distributors in Nikkei today saying memory demand deficit has reached 40-60% (67-150% higher than supply). With general prices going up 50% by years end. - $SPCX isn’t included in the $1.3T hyperscaler capex figures (I think Wells Fargo ets. ~$263b AI capex), so total capex figures might be surprising. - $SNDK expects 80% gross margins to continue into 2030… (welcome to S&P 100) - and once again you have long term visibility into 2031 now with companies like Samsung Memory is very really volatile… some of my positions are up 270%+, so I find it a bit easier to hold through volatile periods. But regardless, operating fundamentals doesn’t always align with short term price movements. Same concept can be applied to other sectors.
- Okay just to simplify this: There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers. A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos. Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato. But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet.. Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer. So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price goes up. So ESMT needs more carrot seeds (from PSMC). But PSMC is running low on carrot seeds to grow the carrots. So PSMC charges ESMT more for the seeds. But the price ESMT sells the carrots at are much higher than what PSMC hikes the carrod seed price. now... ESMT is making enough from selling carrots that it traded 1.9x P/E off July's earnings. Can ESMT keep selling these carrots through 2027? All the other farmers thinks so since it's both hard + low incentive to migrate their valuable potato farms back to carrot farms.
- $MU: goes from $133B -> $1T+ in a year. $RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB
- Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...
- You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.
- My memory bags are decently heavy, thank you for asking. Just out of curiosity, you think 16+ long term agreements with $MU. And $SNDK 80% gross margin projections through fiscal 2030 is a cyclical commodity? (their LTAs already cover majority of 2028 output). This is quite a long cycle if you ask me...
- The $SHKY, Samsung, $SNDK, $MU memory bottleneck never changed anon https://t.co/6Xyih3pM9D
- SK Hynix, $MU , and Samsung have sold out of 2027 capacity for DRAM/HBM. $SNDK, Samsung, Micron current annual NAND capacity has been sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to finalize allocations by August 2026. - Customers are being allocated only 60–70% of the volumes they initially requested - industry insiders pointed out that 2027 will enter the most severe moment of memory shortage - Allocation amounts are mostly decided, but final shipment pricing will be determined closer to delivery Source: Digitimes, citing industry sources. Hard to see those memory "oversupply" claims in early-mid 2027 when they're all sold out of capacity already.
- Just some notes from $TSLA transcripts: Elon Musk: "I think Optimus will be the biggest product ever" from Q2 earnings transcripts. Even from Q1, Elon Stated: "I think Optimus will be our biggest product. Not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. And I remain convinced of that conclusion". It's very rare to see such high conviction reiterated from Elon regarding humanoids both directionally and TAM-wise. In terms of upstream suppliers opportunities, Karn Budhiraj, VP of $TSLA supply chains stated: "We’re seeing the same level of investment going to memory and also new specific items like metal injection molded parts, flexible printed circuits, and all sorts of nonlinear technologies..." And that they had to build new supply chains from scratch. So would be interesting to look at for new supply chain supplier opportunities apart from the known ones. Just pulled older slides and it looks like capacity targets for Fremont are 1M and Giga Texas was 10M, so at scale, $TSLA seems to be the clear US leader. If you're looking at that S-Curve opportunity ramp. On a side note, Elon also gave a shoutout to $MU with likely reasonably priced LTAs, given his statement: "We really appreciate Micron making room for Tesla in the years to come and giving us actually a very significant allocation on reasonable terms given the pretty insane pricing of memory these days." (Just for structural memory demand). Elon also gave a shoutout to Panasonic which had invested many billions in increasing battery cell production (will need to do deeper DD into Panasonic after this), then Samsung and $TSM. Just takeaways from Tesla earnings TLDR: Elon tends to be directionally correct on where the future is heading, such as with EV or Space. He seems extremely bullish on humanoids.
- Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.
- Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.
- @michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.
- I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).
- Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).
- Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.
- @VixOver20 They’re publishing stupid sensational reports. By taking a new architecture then overreaching by saying the entire TAM will drop 40-50%. It’s like if I said OpenAI optimized memory compression so $MU TAM drops 80%.
- Let’s just say I don’t think markets view them as objective anymore. There’s been tendencies to post overreaching claims over a nuanced technical details. Like how $MU had no HBM4 share with $NVDA few months back. I’m personally just listening to $NVDA direct statements and roadmap.
- Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations. Something to note: Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters. But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation. I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names... I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.
- @gurukid5995 Markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. Memory from $SNDK to $MU was the market's main focus this month, while optical names like $AAOI corrected. I think we'll see a rotation back into photonics eventually, it's personally my highest concentration theme.
- Just Elon Musk casually sounding the alarm. On the massive demand + price hikes for $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung memory relative to supply. He probably has higher visibility into the memory bottleneck than others… https://t.co/iszX0YJHuS
- FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.
- Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.
- Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots. "Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles." "And that demand wave is set to begin before the decade is out." Something as well as was "Over time, we expect the value of on-device AI combined with pent-up unit replacement demand to drive memory demand growth" Which is also another trend (Apple Intelligence is currently dog, but I'm sure we'll see innovations with localized/edge AI). Feels like all the industry leaders from $TSM Chairman, $TSLA Elon Musk, to $MU CEO see humanoids as the next major trend so physical AI is probably next. I wonder if the world is going to have enough memory. Or if we'll see enough breakthroughs to shrink memory usage.
- @AliTava2020 $DRAM is one of the more positive ETFs I have a view on since it's exposure to SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU, and $SNDK. Which is everything people kinda want for memory exposure.
- @Zenctwill $MU earnings are probably a good read through on SK Hynix/Samsung, which is majority of KOSPI weighting (passively too). So seems more likely than not for SK index. It’s also a positive read through on AI demand, which is why $LITE, $AAOI, and others jumped a tiny bit AH.
- Always amazing looking at $MU earnings: Revenue: $41.46B vs. $35.8B est. EPS: $25.11 vs. $20.78 est. Forecasts: Revenue: $49B to $51B, vs $43.24B est EPS: $30.00 to $32.00, vs. $25.31. “Micron said on Wednesday that it has signed 16 long-term agreements” "When completed, we expect approximately half or more of our company revenue to be under these" Looks like memory demand has become structural… But great earnings to show up the AI trade is continuing to ramp up.
- Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.
- Dip looks like a clear buying opportunity for me personally from $MU, $INTC, to $TSM. Since we got a massive drop off BS narratives like 3 rate hikes off no newly material macroeconomic data (which comes out Thursday). If institutions really believed 3 rate hike sellside garbage that BofA put out: They would profit off it with CME/prediction markets. Which are still projecting 74% no rate hike in July. But they don't. So they're feeding retail investors garbage.
- Just a reminder: 99% of X was bearish on memory 3 months ago... Since then: $MU $380 -> $1122 (+195.26%) $SNDK $565 -> $2155 (+281.42%) $EWY $132 -> $219 (+65.91%) SK Hynix 849K -> 2.685M KRW (+215.5%) Samsung 172K -> 362K KRW (+110.7%) If you see a bunch of projections on memory names like Samsung becoming the most profitable company in the world in 2028. Might be a good idea to think independently outside of the narratives at the time like "Oil, LNG, Helium, Iran, etc." Probably same thing now with optical names and their projections into 2027, 2028. I do think photonics and memory are the 2 top themes though, with optics being very early into the supercycle.
- @The_AI_Investor thanks for baiting me in with a stupid rely. I modeled $MU gross margins way ahead of time and got that spot on months before. That's called pricing in earnings ahead of time. After that there were more DRAM/NAND hikes.
- I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.
- I’ve written a thesis on these 3 themes early on: Neoclouds, Photonics, and Memory. Now, it’s fun to sit back and watch all my thesis ideas play out from $AAOI to $EWY to $NBIS. Even got my warnings right too, $IREN is still stagnant due to the $6B of constant selling pressure from the ATM, while $NBIS reaches ATHs. But the bagholders still don’t want to admit it. Think a core part is knowing what theme comes next with markets, then comes picking the winner + heavy concentration in them. If you went long on software and chose the ideal stock, you’d probably end up not as happy? Photonics is still probably the earliest out of the three. But I can see Nebius end up like AWS one day. And $MU / SK Hynix / Samsung potentially end up like a mini $NVDA if memory demand is structural.
- Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.
- Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back. Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex. Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen. Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4 https://t.co/YX9apQSVLT
- I’m just sharing what’s imminent with architectural shifts pushed by $NVDA. Retail managed to completely frontrun institutions on multiple names, but institutions need liquidity to enter. It’s just interesting how every major industry player confirms the same timelines, then a questionable analyst firm that said $MU had no HBM4 share could write a hit piece then be completely incorrect again.
- @NathanJoooo This was in response to that erroneous article. I would trust Foxconn/Lumentum/Nvidia industry projections over an analyst firm that messed up $MU HBM4 so badly and said “no” to all their timelines together
- CPO scale out earlier than expected: > Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today: “The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028” SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications. I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028) Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff) Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after) I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy. Appreciate the buying opportunity though.
- Oh look… $NVDA CEO warned memory shortage is expected to persist for many years, due to massive scaling demand of AI infrastructure. With further announcements tomorrow. $MU and $EWY (Samsung/SK Hynix) operating profit projections aren’t looking too crazy anymore? https://t.co/OvjyrifRtO
- Fun times with market corrections. Leaders from $NVDA down -4.87% to $MU down -7.03%. High beta names like $PL down -22.02%. Funny to see media always trying to explain like: "Micron suffers record wipeout as Broadcom casts a shadow over chip stocks " Broadcom projected insatiable demand into 2028, just made up narratives. Nothing's changed the AI buildout aside from increasing capex. Main material thing was rate hike probabilities increase. But you have random ones like these few times a year into ATHs. Personally wouldn't try and trade fed decision probabilities and stay long on current company projections (eg. $AAOI $471m h1 2027)
- I’ve repeated this for every single stock, but insider selling means literally nothing. A managing director of wireless transferring ownership over to US investors doesn’t change any fundamentals about the business. CEO of $NVDA and $MU sell shares all the time but nobody bats an eye for a reason
- I never thought I’d see the day where $GOOGL needs to raise $80b for AI capex… Then Warren Buffet’s $BRK.A is funding the hyperscaler AI buildout. - $40B ATM, $30B offerings, Berkshire $10B Upstream ecosystem from $LITE to $AVGO to Mediatek to $TSM to $MU should go brrr. Not sure if the Google holders are though, given this massive capex scale isn’t as funded by FCF.
- And a few months later... my $EWY leaps are now up 485%. From IV expansion and directional memory longs. Unfortunately I did see a lot of people sell during the Iran volatility, due to doomposting everywhere on X. But returns going long on the memory sector from Samsing SK Hynix / $MU have been absolutely disgusting to watch. If you can model Samsung / SK Hynix becoming the most profitable companies in the world in 2028... Maybe it's a good idea to just embrace the volatility and let that thesis play out.
- And now… $MU finally hits a $1 Trillion marketcap. I did say this looks like the next $NVDA given how memory demand looks structural with AI. This stock probably made a lot of millionaires going from $80 to $887. https://t.co/5VFdvcuu2c
- Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains. One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via: Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics. I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first. Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar. So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs. Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva. Humanoids are probably later in 2028? You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's more direct exposure out there. Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.
- AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
- ??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM
Ongoing takes on other optical names too
Beyond MU, his viewpoint library also covers: