SKHY · Serenity 持续观点

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

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专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。

结论速览

SKHY 观点中性（看多 2 · 看空 2）

SK海力士CEO预计内存短缺将持续到2030年底，预示需求强劲且价格环境有利。

最近发言：2026/08/28 08:20 · 信心分 7/10

8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及

历史观点（6 条，最新在上）

2026/08/28 08:20UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%. $NVDA 表示供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平而且还在继续上涨. Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论. 我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年.. 所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.
2026/08/28 08:20UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
原推为中文，无需翻译
2026/08/21 09:40UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.
2026/08/21 09:40UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
大家都在玩儿命猜 $SKHY CPO 路线图的供应链，那我来凑个热闹。我猜 SK 海力士在评估 Celestial/Ayar，并且在第一代部署后，会重点评估 microLED。这两家公司都为此努力了一段时间了。 - Ayar 曾在 SK 海力士自己的网站上出现，涉及光纤与内存连接。 - Marvell 正在积极与 SK 海力士合作开发定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁是 Celestial 的老板）。 Celestial/Ayar 在 SK 海力士链接的《Nature》论文中也被引用，这在技术相关性上有所帮助： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光学 I/O 小芯片），Stojanovic 也是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳 Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想尽量写得简短些。对于更上游的受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最直接的受益者，因为他们很可能同时供货给 Celestial 和 Ayar。关于中介层/封装 IP……大家之前在猜 $POET，但 Marvell 在宣布收购 Celestial 后，今年很可能就把它垂直整合掉了。考虑到 Marvell 在收购 Celestial 之前就已经拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如，他们在 2023 年就展示过硅光子中介层）。 -> AMS Osram（我没持有），看起来他们也在这个领域进行联合开发，因为他们今年突然特别强调 HBM <-> 光学技术会增加他们的潜在市场规模（TAM）。总结：我把 Ayar/Celestial 看作 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLED 在第一代之后，可能会在 2029 年左右实现商业化。（这纯属个人猜测）顺便给量子点兄弟们扔块骨头，这篇论文被引用了大概 5 次。
2026/08/17 08:16UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...
2026/08/17 08:16UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
再给大家看看 $SNDK、$SKHY、$MU、Kioxia 以及其他 NAND 厂商的需求不平衡情况。群联（Phison）CEO 说：“2027 年的产能瓶颈会比 2026 年更严重。” “上游供应商从建厂、设备投资到实际投产，需要长达 4 年的时间。” “随着需求爆炸式增长，而供应扩张有限，NAND 短缺问题可能持续数年。” 我不太同意那些说存储芯片行情，尤其是 2026 年的 NAND 瓶颈会结束的说法…
2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.
2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
Citadel 刚刚真的清盘了 Situational Awareness… 然后第二天就把整个大盘拉起来了？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 还有好多其他股票。这绝对是我见过最疯狂的清盘之一。
2026/07/18 04:51UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
- Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.
2026/07/18 04:51UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
- Sk Hynix 主要在韩国交易。 - $SKHY 在美国上市，但股票数量有限，约占流通股的 2.5%（这叫 ADR）。 - 尽管 SK Hynix 是同一家公司，但其股票交易是独立的。 - 由于供应有限，而美国需求量大，SK Hynix 美股相对于 SK Hynix 韩股的溢价通常在 20-50% 之间。 -> ADR 允许韩股和美股之间进行转换，转换将于 29 号开始。 - 如果将 22.5% 的韩股供应转换为美股，那么 20-50% 的溢价很可能会下降。举个例子：如果芒果供应有限，有人会花 3 美元买芒果。你以 1 美元的价格买到同样的芒果，然后你会一直以 1 美元买入，再以 3 美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这叫做套利，交易员很可能会这样做。
2026/07/18 04:39UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.
2026/07/18 04:39UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
那些关注到 $SKHY 相对 SK 海力士韩国本土股票有超过 25% 溢价的朋友：它的 ADRs 和本地股票在 7 月 29 日就能互相转换了。这应该会带来套利机会，很可能压缩 ADR 的溢价。可能会抬升韩国股票，也可能给美国股票带来压力。目前，美国 ADR 股只占 2.5%，所以还有额外的 22.5% 可以转换。

在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点

SKHY 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：

$SIVE · 242 条观点 $NVDA · 135 条观点 $AAOI · 132 条观点

全部跟踪标的 →机构、内部人士与国会议员持仓动态 →

历史观点（6 条，最新在上）

2026/08/28 08:20UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%. $NVDA 表示供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平而且还在继续上涨. Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论. 我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年.. 所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.

2026/08/28 08:20UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

原推为中文，无需翻译

2026/08/21 09:40UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains. I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments. Both have been kinda working on it for awhile. - Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links. - Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now). Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance: (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw. (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial) There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form. For more upstream beneficaries: -> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar. The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement. Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023) -> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them. TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation) Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.

2026/08/21 09:40UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

大家都在玩儿命猜 $SKHY CPO 路线图的供应链，那我来凑个热闹。我猜 SK 海力士在评估 Celestial/Ayar，并且在第一代部署后，会重点评估 microLED。这两家公司都为此努力了一段时间了。 - Ayar 曾在 SK 海力士自己的网站上出现，涉及光纤与内存连接。 - Marvell 正在积极与 SK 海力士合作开发定制内存解决方案（猜猜现在谁是 Celestial 的老板）。 Celestial/Ayar 在 SK 海力士链接的《Nature》论文中也被引用，这在技术相关性上有所帮助： (121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025) - 这是 Ayar 的引用（Ayar 的 teraphy 光学 I/O 小芯片），Stojanovic 也是 Ayar Lab 的联合创始人。 (123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (咳咳 Celestial) 还有更多线索，但我想尽量写得简短些。对于更上游的受益者： -> 我仍然认为 $SIVE 是最直接的受益者，因为他们很可能同时供货给 Celestial 和 Ayar。关于中介层/封装 IP……大家之前在猜 $POET，但 Marvell 在宣布收购 Celestial 后，今年很可能就把它垂直整合掉了。考虑到 Marvell 在收购 Celestial 之前就已经拥有自己的 SiPH 中介层技术/集成 IP（例如，他们在 2023 年就展示过硅光子中介层）。 -> AMS Osram（我没持有），看起来他们也在这个领域进行联合开发，因为他们今年突然特别强调 HBM <-> 光学技术会增加他们的潜在市场规模（TAM）。总结：我把 Ayar/Celestial 看作 SK 海力士 CPO 路线图的候选者，然后 microLED 在第一代之后，可能会在 2029 年左右实现商业化。（这纯属个人猜测）顺便给量子点兄弟们扔块骨头，这篇论文被引用了大概 5 次。

2026/08/17 08:16UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...

2026/08/17 08:16UTC看多信心分：7/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

再给大家看看 $SNDK、$SKHY、$MU、Kioxia 以及其他 NAND 厂商的需求不平衡情况。群联（Phison）CEO 说：“2027 年的产能瓶颈会比 2026 年更严重。” “上游供应商从建厂、设备投资到实际投产，需要长达 4 年的时间。” “随着需求爆炸式增长，而供应扩张有限，NAND 短缺问题可能持续数年。” 我不太同意那些说存储芯片行情，尤其是 2026 年的 NAND 瓶颈会结束的说法…

2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.

2026/07/30 18:31UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

Citadel 刚刚真的清盘了 Situational Awareness… 然后第二天就把整个大盘拉起来了？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 还有好多其他股票。这绝对是我见过最疯狂的清盘之一。

2026/07/18 04:51UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

- Sk Hynix mainly traded in Korea - $SKHY lists in the US with limited shares, ~2.5% of the float (this is called ADR) - Even though SK Hynix are the same company, the shares trade independently. - Sk Hynix US traded at a 20-50% premium to SK Hynix Korean listing due to limited supply, but lot of US demand. -> ADRs allow for conversion between Korea Shares to US Shares, and conversion will start on the 29th - If you convert 22.5% of the Korean supply to the US, that 20-50% premium is likely to go down eg. If there's limited mangos, and someone pays $3 for mangos. You buy the same mango for $1. You keep buying those $1 mangos and selling for $3 until the mangos pricing converge. That's called arbitrage and what likely traders would do.

2026/07/18 04:51UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

- Sk Hynix 主要在韩国交易。 - $SKHY 在美国上市，但股票数量有限，约占流通股的 2.5%（这叫 ADR）。 - 尽管 SK Hynix 是同一家公司，但其股票交易是独立的。 - 由于供应有限，而美国需求量大，SK Hynix 美股相对于 SK Hynix 韩股的溢价通常在 20-50% 之间。 -> ADR 允许韩股和美股之间进行转换，转换将于 29 号开始。 - 如果将 22.5% 的韩股供应转换为美股，那么 20-50% 的溢价很可能会下降。举个例子：如果芒果供应有限，有人会花 3 美元买芒果。你以 1 美元的价格买到同样的芒果，然后你会一直以 1 美元买入，再以 3 美元卖出，直到芒果价格趋同。这叫做套利，交易员很可能会这样做。

2026/07/18 04:39UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently is the US ADR stock, so an additional 22.5% can be converted.

2026/07/18 04:39UTC看空跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

那些关注到 $SKHY 相对 SK 海力士韩国本土股票有超过 25% 溢价的朋友：它的 ADRs 和本地股票在 7 月 29 日就能互相转换了。这应该会带来套利机会，很可能压缩 ADR 的溢价。可能会抬升韩国股票，也可能给美国股票带来压力。目前，美国 ADR 股只占 2.5%，所以还有额外的 22.5% 可以转换。