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- English · 原文$XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the possibility of xfab moving to HVM. On their silicon photonics foundry w/ photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC for TFLN on SOI. Regardless I’m bullish too on XFAB and curious where it heads.中文 · 翻译$XFAB 被 Bernstein 上调至跑赢大盘，目标价从 €5 升至 €12.8。 好吧，我原谅你 Bernstein，在铠侠和英特尔这事上。 我还是觉得这不过是跟着汽车复苏、SiC/功率半导体爬坡做的被动目标价调整。 而且可能远远低估了潜力……如果市场开始计价 XFAB 进入 HVM（高量产）的可能性的话。 毕竟他们在硅光电子代工这块，跟 photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC 合作搞 TFLN-on-SOI。 不管怎样，我也看好 XFAB，好奇它会走向何方。
- English · 原文So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.中文 · 翻译所以短期拉升的话，我觉得 $LPK 可能会走得更陡峭一些。 因为设备供应商从认证阶段切换到量产阶段时——就像最近 $AEHR 和 $AIXA 那样——它们通常会被重新估值到 30-70 亿美元的市值。 但 99% 的公司从结构上看，天花板还是比较明显的。 长期来看，我个人觉得 $XFAB 的上行空间要大得多，如果它们能主导欧洲的光子供应链，并且用 MTP 做出一个 $TSEM 的替代方案的话。不过现在还处在更早期的阶段。
- English · 原文@carlosfagar $XFAB hasn't even been a month... I made this post saying I'd prefer if long ideas were validated on medium term timeframes, not in 3 weeks lol. $SOI is up over 175% since I shared my idea?中文 · 翻译@carlosfagar $XFAB 甚至还没满一个月…… 我发过这帖子，说我希望长期看多的想法能在中期时间框架内得到验证，而不是三周内就搞定了，哈哈。 $SOI 从我分享想法以来涨了超过 175%？
- English · 原文@commieserenity $XFAB is more of a 2027/2028 play, but should recover independently h2 imo without silicon photonics, as they should come out of the automotive slump.中文 · 翻译@commieserenity $XFAB 更像是 2027/2028 的标的，但在我看来，即便没有硅光子技术，它也该独立复苏，毕竟他们应该能走出汽车行业的低谷。
- English · 原文Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)中文 · 翻译不觉得 $XFAB 有什么新消息。 不过他们公司做宣传材料这块得再下点功夫。 毕竟显然没人认为他们有光计算、AI 数据中心或功率半导体的相关曝光。 但我是觉得，好歹他们正通过 PhotonixFab 牵头欧洲的硅光子价值链布局吧。 而且 Fable 实施出口管制之后，显然所有人加上欧盟都在讨论主权 AI 供应链。 难道大家不觉得他们会是这场主权 AI 推动中的主要受益方之一，跟 IMEC、ligentec 这些公司一起？ 反正，市场总有不同意见，也可能根本没把这些事串起来想。 不管怎样，我就是好奇这个局最后会怎么走。（声明，本人持仓）
- English · 原文@JSCC2020Lee Yep, $NVTS, $POWI, $ON, $WOLF, $AOSL $XFAB, and others with power semi exposure probably get a bump from q3 pull forward. (disclosure have exposure to xfab + navitas)中文 · 翻译@JSCC2020Lee 是的，$NVTS、$POWI、$ON、$WOLF、$AOSL、$XFAB 以及其他涉及功率半导体的标的，可能都会因为 Q3 的提前拉货而有所提振。 （声明：持有 xfab + navitas 的仓位）
- English · 原文@RyanU_1F42B $IQE, $XFAB, and others are just not really well known but they're both critical to western supply chains. Probably a long way to go imo中文 · 翻译@RyanU_1F42B $IQE、$XFAB 还有其他几家其实不太出名，但它们对西方供应链都很关键。 我个人觉得，估计还有很长一段路要走。
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).中文 · 翻译为什么我一直被问到这些问题！！！ $XFAB 正在打造一个硅光子学代工厂，作为 $TSEM 和 $GFS 的替代品。而且有欧洲支持它，再加上 $NVDA 的评估。 这需要时间……比如到 2026 年 10 月，开发应该能完成。 然后 2027 年产量会逐步扩大，到 2028 年进入（大规模量产），毕竟他们从 2023 年就开始搞了。 现在所有人都觉得它就是个低迷的汽车供应商。好在欧洲公司嘛，大家习惯看 TTM 营收，而不是盯着未来增长。 所以它就这么莫名其妙地领导了欧盟打造一个 $TSEM 式的硅光子学代工厂及供应链，市值大约 €11 亿？ 日月光（ASE）的研发总监和其他人都把它列为未来的 CPO 路线。 我可能在很多事情上都太早了，但当然大部分的风险回报就来自一点信念，赌它能商业化。 不然大家也可以直接选 Tower 这条更稳妥的路（我之前也写过一篇关于它的分析，也挺喜欢的）。
- English · 原文@aphexinvests I’d expect $SOI, $XFAB, $IQE and others in the European supply chain to play follow the leader and recover as well. Everything got sold off with photonics / power semis recently.中文 · 翻译@aphexinvests 我觉得 $SOI、$XFAB、$IQE 还有欧洲供应链里的其他几家，应该也会跟着龙头一起反弹。 最近光电和功率半导体那边，什么都被抛售了一波。
- English · 原文@jim29223471 Can’t give advice on what you should do. But personally I think $XFAB valuations are a joke at $1.45B MC if they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics supply chain efforts.中文 · 翻译@jim29223471 没法给你建议该怎么做。 但就我个人而言，我觉得如果 $XFAB 在欧洲硅光子供应链上处于领先地位，那它 14.5 亿美元的市值估值就是个笑话。
- English · 原文@SebastianS79509 $XFAB is European... I really like it, just markets are sleeping on it.中文 · 翻译@SebastianS79509 $XFAB 是欧洲的……我真的很喜欢它，只是市场还没注意到它。
- English · 原文Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.中文 · 翻译好的，这是你最喜欢的 800V 直流相关的整理清单，各位朋友们。 1. $IFNNY - $1158亿 2. $ON - $462亿 3. 光宝科技 (2301) - $160.3亿 4. 6504.T - $141亿 5. $VICR - $128亿 6. $LFUS - $115.7亿 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $83.4亿 8. $VSH - $78.6亿 9. $ENPH - $73.6亿 10. $NVTS - $57.7亿 11. $POWI - $43亿 12. $BDC - $41.8亿 13. $EOSE - $38.6亿 14. $SEDG - $38.2亿 15. $AEHR - $31亿 16. 6890.T - $26.6亿 17. $WOLF - $21.6亿 18. $CWR.L - $17.5亿 19. $AMSC - $16.8亿 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $16.8亿 21. $XFAB - $15.4亿 22. $AOSL - $12.5亿 23. $HYLN - $12.3亿 24. $FCEL - $8.35亿 25. $IQE.L - $7.8亿 26. $ASYS - $2.76亿 27. $RELL - $2.39亿 28. 6844.T - $2.22亿 29. 4973.T - $2.07亿 30. $PAY.BR - $1.89亿 31. 6616.T - $1.86亿 32. 6882.T - $1.24亿 33. $IPWR - $9600万 另外还顺手把你们提到的像 $FCEL 或 $EOSE 这种有点沾边的也放进来了，虽然我不确定这是不是好的敞口。有人提到的像 $POET 那种明显不相关的就忽略了。 评论大概有500条，但估计X的机制限制了我能看到的内容。 咱们就看看你最有信心的那些想法表现如何吧。
- English · 原文Uhh, $XFAB de-risked foundry. Compelling upside from CPO if they make things work in H2 2027/2028? I call this frontrunning institutions... since it's a massive guessing game few months ahead of normal repricing. Cause it's a lot of customer/document mapping + timeline guessing without formal volume contracts in place. But I think I'm right? We'll see.中文 · 翻译呃，$XFAB 算是把代工厂的风险给消化了。要是他们在 2027/2028 下半年能搞出名堂来，那 CPO 带来的上涨空间还挺诱人的？ 我把这叫做「跑在机构前面」……毕竟在正常的重新定价前几个月，这完全就是个大型猜谜游戏。 因为现在还没正式的量产合同，全靠一堆客户/文档匹配加上时间线瞎猜。 不过我觉得我猜得对吧？走着瞧咯。
- English · 原文@Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.中文 · 翻译@Jornka329996 你是不是上头了，我这周发过 $XFAB 的内容啊。 他们跟 $NVDA 和 $NOK 合作的硅光子平台，量产要到 2027/2028 下半年。 我觉得这是一个风险大幅释放的上市前长线标的，看起来就像下一个 $TSEM。还有 SiC/GaN 带来的上涨空间。 就是需要时间。
- English · 原文EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union" - "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics" - "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies - "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies" === More specifically policy specifically focuses on -> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE) -> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…” -> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB) -> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players" -> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework. Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category. Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework. TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now. We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.中文 · 翻译欧盟芯片法案 2.0 提案现已发布。 好消息：光子学现已被确认为欧盟政策的新结构性组成部分。 这对欧盟光子学行业来说，在主题上看涨。 主题上来说： - "‘欧洲芯片计划’的这一新组成部分支持光子集成电路及相关技术的发展" - "在整个联盟内建立并加强光子集成电路技术及其他光子技术的先进设计、原型制造和产业化部署能力" - "拓展联盟的设计能力，包括光子学领域" - "加强现有试点线并开发新的试点线和开放式半导体制造设施，用于光子集成电路及相关光子技术的原型制造和生产" - "开发并维护光子集成电路及相关光子技术的设计库和设计自动化工具" === 具体来说，政策特别聚焦于 → 面向 AI 数据中心的光学共封装（CPO/互连聚焦，对 $SIVE 是看涨信号） → "硅光子……在高带宽数据中心互连中的应用" → "包括共封装和与电子芯片的异构集成、制造设备以及光子集成电路材料平台在内的生产技术能力应得到加强"（$XFAB） → $SOI 在关于欧盟结构性优势的影响分析中被直接提及。"欧盟在 SOI 晶圆方面拥有相对较强的全球地位，Soitec 和 Siltronic 是显著参与者" → $XFAB 也在影响分析中被直接提及，作为创建当前资助框架的一部分。 显然这对 $XFAB 是结构性的利好，因为他们实际上是欧洲硅光子价值链的领导者，并被列为"首创"（FOAK）类别中的一员。 初步解读，这对进入 AI 数据中心的欧盟光子学领导者来说非常积极，符合欧盟政策。我预计光学相关企业将普遍受益于这一框架。 总结：长期来看，欧盟光子学结构性起飞。最积极的确认是，光子学现在已成为欧盟政策的结构性组成部分。 在这份提案发布后，我们很可能在 3-15 个月内（通常在中间某个时间点）看到具体的光子学公司名称出现。市场总体上是前瞻性的。
- English · 原文@laadred No, its because CHIPS ACT 2 was just published now and photonics was added. "photonics and photonic integrated circuits to the reinforced Chips for Europe Initiative 2.0" $XFAB is mentioned in some reports. The documents are too long still going through everything now. https://t.co/oFTWd0SXT8中文 · 翻译@laadred 不是，是因为《芯片法案 2》刚刚发布，而且光子学被加进去了。 "将光子学和光子集成电路纳入强化后的欧洲芯片计划 2.0" $XFAB 在一些报告里被提到了。文件太长了，我现在还在通读所有内容。https://t.co/oFTWd0SXT8
- English · 原文@KayEffGeee $XFAB suddenly rose 7%, I wonder if there was any mention there. I'll go through transcripts now.中文 · 翻译@KayEffGeee $XFAB 突然涨了 7%，不知道那边有没有提到什么。我现在去翻翻会议记录。
- English · 原文The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it. -> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On -> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."中文 · 翻译纳斯达克与欧盟上市的核心区别： $POET：24 亿美元市值 → 封装 Sivers 激光器 → 有一份 5000 万美元的预生产合同（含权证） > $XFAB：17 亿美元市值 → 碳化硅/氮化镓/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受欧盟芯片法案、美国芯片法案 PMT 支持 → 市净率低于重置成本 → $NVDA、$NOK 直接评估其量产前的硅光子代工厂，2027/2028 年产能爬坡 → $XFAB 作为欧洲光子供应链规模化量产的主导代工厂，旗下有 IMEC/CEA-Leti、Ligentec、Smart Photonics、PHIX Photonics、Luceda Photonics 以及欧洲各大光子厂商 → 主要客户包括 $NVTS、$POWI、Lite-On → 美国商务部认定："美国唯一一家量产级碳化硅代工厂"
- English · 原文So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised if larger players were there.中文 · 翻译所以 $SOI 和 $NOK 已经比较成熟了。 我深入看了一下，提案主要围绕 3000 万到 5 亿美元的融资和营收激励，目的是帮助那些还没进入量产的企业过渡到大规模量产阶段。 $SIVE / $XFAB 和这些政策激励更贴合，不过要是大玩家也在里面，我也不会意外。
- English · 原文Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes. To bridge early European companies to volume production. I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries: - $XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM. - and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027. More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.中文 · 翻译欧洲今天（6 月 3 日）发布其《技术主权一揽子计划》。 其中包括《芯片法案 2.0》，预计将优先发展光子学。 $XFAB 和 $SIVE 均被列入《产业政策蓝图》，该蓝图指导欧盟立法。 该计划提出主权支持，每家公司可获 3,000 万至 5 亿欧元的融资额度，并设有收入需求激励机制。 旨在帮助欧洲早期公司过渡到量产阶段。 我个人认为我的两个主题思路将大幅受益： - $XFAB，因为他们引领欧洲的硅光子价值链，诺基亚和英伟达正在评估他们进行光子学大规模量产。 - 以及 $SIVE，作为欧洲 AI 数据中心激光器领域的领导者，计划在 2027 年将激光器推向大规模量产。 更多细节将于今日公布，但这对光子学而言是一个结构性利好，对西方、尤其是欧盟供应链至关重要。
- English · 原文@StocksAREnuts Yeah I’m up like 250% on $SOI, I’m surprised markets missed the at one… Also quite surprised about $XFAB valuations given they seem to be leading Europe’s photonics supply chain development…中文 · 翻译@StocksAREnuts 是啊，我在$SOI上赚了大概250%，真没想到市场居然错过了这个机会…… 另外对$XFAB的估值也挺意外的，毕竟他们看起来正在主导欧洲光子供应链的发展……
- English · 原文Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets. CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints. Did I miss something? Or did markets miss something?中文 · 翻译说实话，$XFAB 的低调劲儿真挺像早期的 $TSEM。 市值连 20 亿都不到。 你基本找不到第二家像这样的公司——$NVDA 和 $NOK 都在积极帮你站台，验证你那还没商用的硅光子晶圆厂（photonixFAB）…… 同时还拿了《芯片法案》/政府补贴来补贴资本支出。 同时还在牵头搞欧洲的光子供应链建设。 感觉光凭这一点就足以撑起估值了……但你还能白捡它的功率半导体 SiC/GaN 业务，以及所有资产。 明天《芯片法案》2.0 就要出来了，而 $XFAB 被列在了光子学蓝图上。 是我漏掉了什么吗？ 还是市场漏掉了什么？
- English · 原文Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…中文 · 翻译感谢路透社和彭博社今天对 $XFAB 做了更中立的报道。 虽然如果能更聚焦于所说的结构性逻辑会更好…… 大约 800 伏直流电功率半导体 $NVDA 敞口 + 同时 $NVDA / $NOK 在光电子领域的评估还在进行中。 还有《芯片法案》下的半导体自主权是近期催化剂。 而不是围绕新信息整合带来的波动。 我花很多时间翻监管文件，就是为了找出市场忽略的那些有意思的东西，你懂的……
- English · 原文Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.中文 · 翻译Bro media… $XFAB 怎么就成 meme 股了？ 这次可别再在 $RPI 上犯同样的错误好吗？ 它们可是因为太关键，直接从欧盟拿到了 CHIPS ACT 资金。 而且 $NVDA / $NOK 正在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们交易价才低到大约 1.28 倍市净率。 这让我想起了 $SOI，市净率低但高增长垂直领域正脱离传统业务板块的拖累。 $XFAB 可是被明确写在下周 CHIPS ACT 2 的蓝皮书里……而那蓝皮书主要聚焦光子学。 主收入增长引擎在于功率半导体，因为 $NVDA 在推 800 伏直流电。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 和大家都最近起飞了。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它们在功率半导体里是个不太知名的代工厂……但美国商务部 2 年前就指出，它们是美国唯一高产能的 SiC 代工厂。 我恰好指出了这些关联。 别因为你搞不懂，就给人家扣个 "meme 股" 的帽子，说价格脱离基本面。
- English · 原文@MalteAnkan20 $XFAB is more tethered to power semis growth. With silicon photonics upside optionality depending on how $NVDA / $NOK evaluations go中文 · 翻译@MalteAnkan20 $XFAB 跟功率半导体的增长绑定得更紧。 硅光子这块的上行期权，取决于 $NVDA / $NOK 的评估进展。
- English · 原文Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql中文 · 翻译嗯，看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 拿到欧盟芯片法案 2 的资金的话，我也不会意外。 开心的是，我那些多头持仓（除了 $IQE）也都列在蓝图上了——之前研究时没注意到这一点！ 不过，看起来正式公告推迟到下周了。https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
- English · 原文@DisruptivePoltx Yeah they have close relationships with $IQE, $SOI and my other longs. Was familiar with a lot of the private photonics companies working with $XFAB so liked it a bit more.中文 · 翻译@DisruptivePoltx 对，他们跟 $IQE、$SOI 还有我其他的多头标的关系很密切。 之前就听说过不少跟 $XFAB 合作的私人光子学公司，所以对这个标的更有好感一些。
- English · 原文Yep, there’s a lot of interesting things going on with $XFAB in terms of European’s photonics ecosystem and existing gov funding. Basically power semi exposure, for primary revenue growth, and silicon photonics in EU ecosystem as extra. Regardless I like the idea of supporting and securing Western supply chains for AI.中文 · 翻译是的，$XFAB 在欧洲光子学生态系统和现有的政府资金方面，确实有很多有趣的事情在发生。 基本盘是功率半导体，作为主要收入增长点，而欧盟生态中的硅光子学则是额外加分项。 不管怎样，我支持并确保西方 AI 供应链安全的这个想法。
- English · 原文$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.中文 · 翻译$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）在市值 $12.8 亿的情况下，是一个值得关注的多头思路，我已经建仓。 因为今天 EU CHIPS 法案 2 出炉，对欧洲光子学玩家是个催化剂。 > 800 VDC 功率半导体业务，通过 $NVDA 传导到 $NVTS + $POWI > 硅光子 / CPO 业务，$NVDA 正在评估其大规模量产潜力（光收发器/交换机） > 是美国唯一一家大规模量产 SiC 的代工厂。 > 也是关键 MEMS 代工厂之一 > 市净率约 1.29 倍，差不多是我当时做多 $SOI 时的水平。受传统业务拖累，估值偏低 > 我个人估算 2028 年前瞻市盈率约 6.5-8.5 倍 > 有政府背书： - EU CHIPS 法案，1.28 亿欧元 - 美国 CHIPS 法案，5000 万美元 PMT（商务部）。 后续可能还有更多（这本身就说明它对西方供应链至关重要）。 所以到某个时间点，算上所有补贴，它们的资本开支基本就是政府买单了。 EU CHIPS 法案 2 这周就要公布，我猜 $XFAB 大概率会被纳入，因为它们之前就在名单里，而且这个方案专门针对光子学。 ~$13 亿的市值，如果它能像 Soitec 那样来个反转（低市净率、极高增长板块、汽车传统业务拖累），我觉得很有吸引力。 至于和 $NVDA 在硅光子方面的合作，项目名称是“photonixFAB”。 市场很可能忽略了 XFab 主导的这层硅光子合作（就像我当时做多 $TSEM 时一样），只是换了个名字存在。 在功率半导体方面，XFAB 就是 SiC 的代名词，和 $NVTS 也是关联的。在 PCN-22181 文件中，$POWI 明确把 XFAB 列为它的代工厂。 考虑到它兼具功率半导体和光子学两大增长点、低市净率、有政府兜底（当然，你自己研究，我只是分享个人看法） 我个人觉得挺有吸引力的。