XFABX-FAB Silicon Foundries
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- $XFAB upgraded to outperform with a PT of €12.8 by Bernstein, up from €5. Okay I forgive you Bernstein for Kioxia and Intel. I still think that’s just reactive PTs off automotive recovery, SiC/power semi ramp up. And undershooting potential a lot… If markets price in the possibility of xfab moving to HVM. On their silicon photonics foundry w/ photonixfab / Nvidia + LIGENTEC for TFLN on SOI. Regardless I’m bullish too on XFAB and curious where it heads.
- So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.
- @carlosfagar $XFAB hasn't even been a month... I made this post saying I'd prefer if long ideas were validated on medium term timeframes, not in 3 weeks lol. $SOI is up over 175% since I shared my idea?
- @commieserenity $XFAB is more of a 2027/2028 play, but should recover independently h2 imo without silicon photonics, as they should come out of the automotive slump.
- Don’t think there’s any new news from $XFAB. Their company needs to do a better job with marketing materials though. Since nobody thinks they’re optical ai dc or power semi adjacent exposure apparently. However, I would have thought that since they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics value chain efforts with PhotonixFab. And apparently everyone + EU are discussing sovereign AI supply chains after Fable’s export controls. One might think they’re a major beneficiary alongside IMEC, ligentec and others in the sovereign AI push? Anyway, markets can always disagree or maybe they didn’t link things together. Regardless, I’m just curious how this plays out. (Disclosure, own positions)
- @JSCC2020Lee Yep, $NVTS, $POWI, $ON, $WOLF, $AOSL $XFAB, and others with power semi exposure probably get a bump from q3 pull forward. (disclosure have exposure to xfab + navitas)
- @RyanU_1F42B $IQE, $XFAB, and others are just not really well known but they're both critical to western supply chains. Probably a long way to go imo
- Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.
- Why do I keep getting these questions!!! $XFAB is building a Silicon Photonics foundry alternative to $TSEM and $GFS. And has Europe backing it + $NVDA evaluations. It takes time... Like October 2026, should finish up development. Then 2027 production scaled into 2028 (mass production), since they've been working on it since 2023. Everyone thinks it’s a depressed automaker supplier right now. And thankfully with European names they tend to look at TTM revenue over forward growth. So somehow it’s leading EU’s efforts to create a $TSEM silicon photonics foundry + supply chain at ~€1.1B MC? That R&D directors from ASE cite + others as future CPO routes. I’m might just really early to a lot of things, but of course most of the risk/reward comes from taking a little leap of faith in seeing it commercialized. Otherwise people can take the de-risked route with Tower directly (which I also wrote a thesis on awhile back and also like).
- @aphexinvests I’d expect $SOI, $XFAB, $IQE and others in the European supply chain to play follow the leader and recover as well. Everything got sold off with photonics / power semis recently.
- @jim29223471 Can’t give advice on what you should do. But personally I think $XFAB valuations are a joke at $1.45B MC if they’re leading Europe’s silicon photonics supply chain efforts.
- @SebastianS79509 $XFAB is European... I really like it, just markets are sleeping on it.
- Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.
- Uhh, $XFAB de-risked foundry. Compelling upside from CPO if they make things work in H2 2027/2028? I call this frontrunning institutions... since it's a massive guessing game few months ahead of normal repricing. Cause it's a lot of customer/document mapping + timeline guessing without formal volume contracts in place. But I think I'm right? We'll see.
- @Jornka329996 Are you high, I posted about $XFAB this week. Their silicon photonics platform with $NVDA and $NOK scales h2 2027 / 2028. I think it’s a heavily derisked precommercial long that looks like the next $TSEM. With upside from SiC/GaN. Just needs time.
- EU CHIPS Act 2.0 proposal is now released. Great news: Photonics is now confirmed to be the new structural addition to EU policy. This is thematically bullish for the EU photonics sector. Thematically: - "This new component of the Chips for Europe Initiative supports the development of photonic integrated circuits and associated technologies" - "building and strengthening advanced design, prototyping, and industrial deployment capacities for photonic integrated circuit technologies and other photonic technologies across the Union" - "extend the Union’s design capabilities, including in photonics" - "strengthen existing and develop new pilot lines and open-access semiconductor manufacturing facilities for the prototyping and production of photonic integrated circuits and associated photonic technologies - "develop and maintain design libraries and design automation tools for photonic integrated circuits, associated photonic technologies" === More specifically policy specifically focuses on -> co-packaged optics for AI data centres (CPO/interconnects focus is bullish read through for $SIVE) -> “Silicon photonics … applications in high-bandwidth data-centre interconnects…” -> Capabilities in production technologies including co-packaging and heterogeneous integration with electronic chips, manufacturing equipment, and materials platforms for photonic integrated circuits shall be strengthened ( $XFAB) -> $SOI directly mentioned in impact analysis regarding structural strengths of the EU. "The EU has a relatively strong global position in SOI wafers, with Soitec and Siltronic being notable players" -> $XFAB also directly mentioned in impact analysis, as part of creating the current funding framework. Obviously structurally positive for $XFAB since they're literally leading the European Silicon Photonics Value chain and listed in First of a Kind (FOAK) category. Initial interpretation, this is heavily positive for EU photonics leaders that go inside AI DCs as part of EU Policy. I'm expecting optical players broadly to get a tailwind from this framework. TLDR: EU photonics structurally go brrr long term. Most positive confirmation is that photonics is structurally a part of European Union policy now. We'll likely see the individual photonics names come out after this release, within 3-15 months (typically in the middle somewhere). Markets are forward looking in general.
- @laadred No, its because CHIPS ACT 2 was just published now and photonics was added. "photonics and photonic integrated circuits to the reinforced Chips for Europe Initiative 2.0" $XFAB is mentioned in some reports. The documents are too long still going through everything now. https://t.co/oFTWd0SXT8
- @KayEffGeee $XFAB suddenly rose 7%, I wonder if there was any mention there. I'll go through transcripts now.
- The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it. -> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On -> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."
- So $SOI and $NOK are already more established. I looked into it deeper, and the proposals were focused around 30-500M funding and revenue incentives, to bridge the pre-volume production players to HVM. $SIVE / $XFAB map to policy incentives better, but wouldn't be surprised if larger players were there.
- Europe is releasing its Tech Sovereignty Package, today June 3rd. This includes, CHIPS ACT 2.0, which is expected to prioritize photonics. Both $XFAB and $SIVE are highlighted in the Industry Policy Blueprints, which guides EU legislation. This proposes sovereign backing with €30–500 million financing facilities per company and revenue demand incentivizes. To bridge early European companies to volume production. I personally expect my two thesis ideas to be large beneficiaries: - $XFAB, given they're leading Europe's SiPH value chain, with Nokia and Nvidia evaluating them for photonics HVM. - and $SIVE as Europe's leader for lasers in AI datacenters, scaling lasers to mass production in 2027. More details will be announced today, but this is a structural tailwind to photonics critical to Western and especially EU supply chains.
- @StocksAREnuts Yeah I’m up like 250% on $SOI, I’m surprised markets missed the at one… Also quite surprised about $XFAB valuations given they seem to be leading Europe’s photonics supply chain development…
- Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM. Just sub <$2B MC. You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB) While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex. While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain. Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets. CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints. Did I miss something? Or did markets miss something?
- Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today. Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented… Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics. And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst. Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis. I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…
- Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.
- @MalteAnkan20 $XFAB is more tethered to power semis growth. With silicon photonics upside optionality depending on how $NVDA / $NOK evaluations go
- Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
- @DisruptivePoltx Yeah they have close relationships with $IQE, $SOI and my other longs. Was familiar with a lot of the private photonics companies working with $XFAB so liked it a bit more.
- Yep, there’s a lot of interesting things going on with $XFAB in terms of European’s photonics ecosystem and existing gov funding. Basically power semi exposure, for primary revenue growth, and silicon photonics in EU ecosystem as extra. Regardless I like the idea of supporting and securing Western supply chains for AI.
- $XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.