AMZN亚马逊
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- English · 原文Robotics is next. Both deal count and investment amounts are skyrocketing per pitchbook March data (source: a16z) Good thing is: the same AI DC exposure often has cross-exposure to humanoid ramp. Like DRAM/NAND with memory (on humanoid inference/storage) or DFB lasers with photonics (FMCW LiDAR vision/sensing). Right now most exposure is upstream component parts… or programs within large players like $AMZN or $TSLA. So global IPO season H2 into 2027 for pure play humanoids/robotics companies is going to be fun.中文 · 翻译机器人是下一个大方向。 根据 PitchBook 三月份的数据（来源：a16z），无论是交易数量还是投资金额都在飙升。 好消息是：那些同样投资 AI 数据中心的人，往往也与人形机器人量产布局有交叉。 比如 DRAM/NAND 与内存（用做人形机器人的推理/存储），或者 DFB 激光器与光子学（FMCW LiDAR 视觉/传感）。 目前大部分敞口集中在上游零部件……或者像 $AMZN 或 $TSLA 这类大玩家内部的计划。 所以，从今年下半年到 2027 年的全球 IPO 季，对于纯人形机器人/机器人公司来说，将会非常有意思。
- English · 原文Fun new information discovery from Poet OSINT community: Seems likely that $POET / $SIVE are going to power a Top-3 hyperscaler (either Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Given a Linkedin update from Ankur Singla (CEO of Lumilens). Who stated their customer is one of the top 3 hyperscalers with their post focusing on CPO/NPO. With that clue, seems more likely the Sivers CW DFB light source path over other EML suppliers given it's CPO Scale Out/NPO. If you don't remember, Sivers is the laser supplier to Poet. And Poet has purchase agreements with Lumilens. Always fun to find major potential breadcrumbs in the wild before they're officially confirmed. (Disclosure, long Sive)中文 · 翻译Poet OSINT 社群挖到的新有趣线索： 看起来 $POET / $SIVE 很可能要拿下全球前三的云巨头之一（亚马逊、微软、谷歌中的一家）。 线索来自 Lumilens 的 CEO Ankur Singla 在 LinkedIn 上的一则更新。 他说他们的客户就是前三的云巨头之一，而且那条帖子的重点是 CPO/NPO。 顺着这条线索，考虑到 PoET 用的是 CPO Scale Out/NPO，Sivers 的连续波 DFB 光源方案比其它 EML 供应商的可能性更大。 如果你忘了提一下：Sivers 是 Poet 的激光光源供应商。而 Poet 和 Lumilens 之间有采购协议。 在官方确认之前，能从公开信息里挖到这种潜在的大线索，总是很有意思。（披露：做多 Sivers）
- English · 原文Don’t quite think “siphoned off” is the correct term. It’s capex for massive revenue increase or margin increase down the line. $AMZN is probably my favorite hyperscaler right now and example to give. Amazon’s headcount is absurd, like ~1.57M. If the capex goes into automating their workforce with LLMs. Then transitioning into physical AI: - things from self driving (deliveries) - robotics (Amazon warehouses, shipping automation). + revenue increase from building out AWS compute with Trainium and possibly selling chips too with the Neocloud strat. It’s probably the clearest path forward compared to every hyperscaler out there. $TSLA optimus use case targets is extremely broad as a pitch, but Amazon already has a specific reason to scale robotics for internal opex optimization. As for $GOOGL, probably 2nd right now, AI capex was necessary for defending its Google Search moat Gemini from ChatGPT They also have Google Cloud revenue with efficient TPUs + can sell TPUs like Nvidia GPUs. Gemini user volumes keep going up (despite the lack of contention in frontier benchmarks); and AI strategy to be working for ad optimization too. But there’s less clear paths with physical AI stuff ig? Microsoft and Meta are still trying to convince the market why capex is necessary, (we’re kinda seeing that in effect with Meta’s 30%+ Y/Y revenue growth), but doesn’t look like they’re convinced. As for market narratives, Microsoft Maia seems to be behind, their AI development was stunted from OpenAi investments, so sentiment is kinda in the ground. But think that will change down the road like the 180 with Google. I’m sure all the hyperscalers are seeing the leader effect right now: If you have the leading LLM, people will keep using it. That LLM gets smarter from all the training data; and that gap might be structural. Which is why everyone is kinda rushing the buildout right now, but for some the immediate incentives seem obvious.中文 · 翻译不太觉得“抽走资金”这个说法准确。 这是为了之后大幅增加收入或利润率做的资本支出。 $AMZN 可能是我目前最喜欢的超大规模云厂商，也可以拿它来举例。 亚马逊的员工人数很夸张，大概有 157 万。如果这些资本支出是用来通过大语言模型实现劳动力自动化。 然后过渡到物理 AI： - 自动驾驶相关（送货） - 机器人技术（亚马逊仓库、航运自动化）。 再加上通过 Trainium 扩展 AWS 算力并利用 Neocloud 策略可能销售芯片带来的收入增长。 跟所有其他超大规模云厂商相比，亚马逊的路径可能是最清晰的。 $TSLA Optimus 的使用场景目标太宽泛，但亚马逊已经有了具体理由来扩大机器人规模，用于内部运营成本优化。 至于 $GOOGL，目前可能排第二，AI 资本支出对于保护谷歌搜索护城河 Gemini 对抗 ChatGPT 是必要的。 他们还有谷歌云的营收，搭配高效的 TPU，也可以像英伟达 GPU 那样卖 TPU。 Gemini 用户量一直在增长（尽管在前沿基准测试上缺乏竞争力）；AI 策略也在为广告优化发挥作用。 但在物理 AI 方面，路径更模糊，我猜？ 微软和 Meta 还在努力说服市场为什么资本支出是必要的（我们其实从 Meta 超过 30% 的同比增长营收中看到了效果），但市场似乎并不买账。 至于市场叙事，微软的 Maia 似乎落后了，他们的 AI 开发因为 OpenAI 的投资而受阻，所以市场情绪基本上跌到谷底。 但我觉得未来会像谷歌那样来个 180 度大转弯。 我敢肯定所有超大规模云厂商现在都看到了领先者效应： 如果你拥有领先的大语言模型，人们就会一直用。那个大语言模型会从所有训练数据中变得更聪明；而这个差距可能是结构性的。 这就是为什么现在大家都在抢着搞建设，但对某些厂商来说，眼前的激励显然更明显。
- English · 原文Other way around, $NVDA bottlenecked the entire industry for EML capacity. And did the same with CW capacity ONCE AGAIN with $LITE, $COHR, and $MRVL (if they have LTA in place with Celestial) I said this a few months ago, we'd see this exact same playbook. But $AMD, $AMZN, $META, and others are just so stupidly slow that they let themselves get bottlenecked. Now there's only a few merchant players like $AAOI, $MTSI, and $SIVE that they all need to fight over.中文 · 翻译反过来看，是 $NVDA 卡住了整个行业在 EML 产能上的脖子。 而且它又干了一次同样的事情——在 CW 产能上，把 $LITE、$COHR 和 $MRVL 也给卡住了（前提是他们跟 Celestial 签了长期协议）。 我几个月前就说过，我们会看到完全一样的剧本。但 $AMD、$AMZN、$META 这些家伙动作慢得离谱，结果让自己也被卡在瓶颈里。 现在只剩少数几家商业玩家了，比如 $AAOI、$MTSI 和 $SIVE，大家都得争着抢。
- English · 原文hmm, i prefer all your upstream chokepoints over $NVDA long term since those will be re-rated the most (nvidia already largest company in the world) pretty sure hyperscaler ASICs would eventually siphon off $NVDA demand like $GOOGL TPU, $AMZN trainium programs. wouldn't be too positive for expontentially compounding revenue growth since hyperscalers were Nvidia's original main revenue stream (even indirect via Neoclouds). But $NVDA's kinda stalling everyone elses buildout by bottlenecking their programs eg. EML/laser capacity agreements years out too. And took stakes in $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC etc. making them adopt to $NVDA standards or just owning a large %. So even if they're delaying other programs + their biggest growth vector kinda falls off one day, like how things are shifting already shifting to ASICs for inference. They'll still probably be fine given ownership stakes + will serve companies/countries outside of hyperscaler cash cows (just less revenue)+ made so much before then. But that's probably why p/e keeps going down despite revenues going up, since idk if markets thinks that growth will last forever. Or could be totally wrong and they just keep leapfrogging generation by generation + AI pie keeps growing with Jensen's 4T 2030 capex number.中文 · 翻译嗯，长期来看，我更看好你提到的所有上游瓶颈环节，而不是 $NVDA，因为那些东西的估值重估空间最大（英伟达已经是全球最大公司了）。 我相当确信，超大规模云的 ASIC 最终会分流 $NVDA 的需求，就像 $GOOGL 的 TPU、$AMZN 的 Trainium 项目那样。这对指数级复利的营收增长可不太有利，因为超大规模云本来就是英伟达最初的主要收入来源（甚至通过 Neocloud 这种间接渠道也是）。 不过 $NVDA 也在卡别人脖子，拖慢大家的建设进度，比如把 EML/激光产能协议签到了好几年后。而且它还入股了 $MRVL / $LITE / $COHR / $INTC 等公司，要么让它们采用 $NVDA 的标准，要么直接拿大头股份。 所以，哪怕它拖慢了其他项目 + 自己最大的增长引擎某天会熄火（就像现在推理已经在往 ASIC 转移了）， 考虑到它手里那一堆股权 + 还能继续服务超大规模现金牛之外的公司和国家（虽然收入会少一些）+ 之前早就赚得盆满钵满，它大概率还是能过得不错。 不过，这大概也是为什么它收入一直在涨、市盈率却持续走低的原因——大概市场也不确定这种增长能不能永远持续。 当然，也可能我完全错了，它们就是一代代持续领先 + AI 蛋糕持续做大，配合 Jensen 说的 2030 年 4 万亿 capex 目标。
- English · 原文Yeah… I think all your upstream semi supply chain companies are going much higher. Goldman now expects a combined $5.3 trillion of capex spending for the four largest hyperscalers $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN from 2025 to 2030. Revised up from $4.5T from Q1 earnings. “Aggregate capex est. $7.6 trillion between 2026 and 2031.” And it flows upward to these tiny chokepoints like $SIVE for CPO lasers/ $SOI for Silicon Photonics substrates. Leaderdrive/Harmonic for Humanoids components. And so on… Ai names don’t move in a straight line up, but is just the beginning of the next Industrial Revolution as we move from R&D/compute buildout into commercialization from Agents -> Physical AI -> discovery.中文 · 翻译是啊……我觉得你上游所有半导体供应链的公司都会涨很多。 高盛现在预计，从2025到2030年，四大超大规模云厂商 $GOOGL / $META / MSFT / $AMZN 的资本开支总和将达到 5.3 万亿美元。 相比一季度财报时预测的 4.5 万亿，已经上调了。 “2026 到 2031 年，总资本开支估计为 7.6 万亿美元。” 这些资金会向上传导到那些小而关键的瓶颈环节，比如 $SIVE（CPO 激光器）、$SOI（硅光子学衬底），还有 Leaderdrive / Harmonic（人形机器人组件）。 等等等等…… AI 板块不会一路上涨， 但当我们从研发/算力建设阶段走向商业化——从 Agent 到物理 AI，再到科学发现——这仅仅是下一场工业革命的开端。
- English · 原文Ayar’s announcement today with Wiwynn is potentially very material for $SIVE regarding CPO -> rack scale deployments. As Wiwynn cloud clients include $AMZN, $META, $MSFT. And they’ve been in talks for $GOOGL TPU deployments. I think just for some reference architectures it’s around 512+ supernova light sourc a rack. So if $SIVE is the primary laser array supplier (which we expect, given Macom + Lumentum was removed from Ayar’s site). Even modest rack deployments would be very meaningful for revenue. This is just rack scale commercialization potential right now from $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn, which won’t show up in revenue financials yet.中文 · 翻译Ayar 今天和 Wiwynn 的声明，对 $SIVE 来说在 CPO -> 机架级部署这条线上，潜在意义非常大。 因为 Wiwynn 的云客户包括 $AMZN、$META、$MSFT。 而且他们一直在跟 $GOOGL 的 TPU 部署谈合作。 我觉得，单看一些参考架构，一个机架大概就要 512+ 个 Supernova 光源。 所以如果 $SIVE 是主要的激光阵列供应商（我们预期是这样，毕竟 Macom 和 Lumentum 已经从 Ayar 的官网上移除了）。 哪怕只是中等规模的机架部署，对营收来说也意义重大。 而这还只是 $SIVE / Ayar / Wiwynn 眼下在机架级商业化上的潜力，暂时还不会体现在财务营收上。
- English · 原文$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier). - “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.” CPO thematically go brrr - Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up. I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon. - Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr. - Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”. Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr - $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing. Volume ramp indicator If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET. So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.中文 · 翻译$MRVL 的财报对整个 CPO 主题（以及 $SIVE 作为可能的激光器供应商）来说是一个看涨信号。 - "Scale-up interconnect 代表了 AI 基础设施领域最新、最具战略意义的机遇之一。" CPO 主题直接起飞 🚀 - 确认 Celestial 被一级超大规模云服务商选中用于规模化部署。 我之前发现过 Celestial 的 $AMZN 权证……所以很可能是亚马逊。 - 明年的 Scale-up 光学收入应该比之前约 $1.5 亿的预期翻倍不止，这要归功于 Celestial。 远期营收增长预期直接起飞。 - Celestial 团队加上 $MRVL 光学团队简直就是"全垒打"。 Marvell 把 Celestial 视为增长引擎，上游的 Celestial 供应商们跟着起飞。 - $MRVL 现在专注于将 Celestial 推向大规模量产。 这是放量爬坡的信号。 如果你不记得了，之前有过 OSINT 情报直接指向 $SIVE 与 Celestial 有关联，而不是通过 $POET。 所以 Celestial 的远期增长对 Sivers 的激光器来说就是一个放量爬坡的信号。