AXTIAXT
27看多1看空17提及
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
AXTI 整体偏多（看多 27 · 看空 1）
AXTI 控制着大量上游材料瓶颈，使其在 InP 供应链中至关重要，并拥有显著的定价权。
最近发言：2026/08/24 18:50 · 信心分 8/10
8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及
历史观点（45 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文@Partfortynineg1 I got you covered with the $AXTI cope boobworld morty. https://t.co/dxToRnjPee中文 · 翻译@Partfortynineg1 我帮你找了些 $AXTI 的安慰剂，布布世界莫蒂。https://t.co/dxToRnjPee
- English · 原文The AI semi theme is down if you look at $AVGO to $TSM. Higher beta names seem to have been hit the hardest. From trends I've seen with optical names, $LITE / $COHR recovered fastest, then larger still high beta names like $AAOI / $AXTI (halfway). Then your $SIVE / $POET type names have taken the longest. But I do see a sharper recovery when markets are more risk-on or when earnings forces re-ratings.中文 · 翻译从 $AVGO 到 $TSM 的走势来看，AI 半导体板块现在是下跌的。那些高贝塔值的股票，看起来跌得最惨。 从我观察过的光学股走势来看，$LITE / $COHR 回升得最快，接着是像 $AAOI / $AXTI 这种体量更大但贝塔值仍然很高的股票（恢复了一半）。 然后像 $SIVE / $POET 这类股票，恢复时间最长。但我确实看到，当市场风险偏好提升，或者财报迫使市场重新估值的时候，这些股票的反弹会更猛。
- English · 原文I’m not sure how to tell people this… but the NAND/MLCCs/InP bottleneck doesnt disappear if $SNDK or Murata or $AXTI drops in price. Same group of folks who only look at price volatility on earnings release to see if it’s good or not. Probably better to look at the actual earnings report or what’s actually happening…中文 · 翻译我不知道该怎么跟大家说… 但就算 $SNDK 或者 Murata 或者 $AXTI 股价跌了，NAND闪存、MLCCs 和 InP（磷化铟）的瓶颈也不会消失。 还是那帮人，只会盯着财报发布时的股价波动，来判断业绩是好是坏。 也许最好还是看看实际的财报，或者看看真实情况到底怎样…
- English · 原文@rektusd101 Everyone was giving me crap over $AXTI being a scam company last year. So I think it got a lot more attention when it played out.中文 · 翻译@rektusd101 去年大家都在吐槽 $AXTI 是个骗子公司。 所以我觉得它后来表现好的时候，才引来了更多关注。
- English · 原文I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.中文 · 翻译我感觉AI投资比大家想象的要简单。 因为$NVDA和黄仁勋（Jensen）简直就是把未来会发生什么明明白白地告诉所有人。 但不知怎么的。几乎每一次。每一次！市场都会不屑一顾，直到事情真正发生？ 想象一下2025年的英伟达：收购了EML和激光产能。 市场不屑一顾：“光子学是个泡沫，就像量子技术一样！____公司管理层有问题，就是个骗局！” 一年后：$LITE 涨了678%，$AAOI 涨了475.12%，$COHR 涨了260.7%，$AXTI 涨了3,843.9%。 _ 2026年的英伟达： 通过长期供货协议（LTAs）收购了连续波（CW）/EML产能。转向800V架构。非常明确地提到了CPO（共封装光学）的转变。明确指出实体AI是下一个主题。 现在的市场：“CW公司都是meme股！800V、CPO短期内不会实现，人形机器人不赚钱！” 是啊……我们拭目以待2027年发生什么吧。 我想我还是把钱押在黄仁勋/英伟达这个领先指标上。
- English · 原文You can look at the YTDs for: - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU that I did took positions on earlier in the year or last year. Then let me know if you still think that way.中文 · 翻译你可以看看这些股票今年以来的表现： - $SIVE, $IQE, $AXTI, $ARM, $MRVL, $INTC, $SOI, solana:NBiSF3UaVUFtRzHwAfxyHsBCAZWGEKnMpewAE4oh7BG, $AAOI, $LITE, $EWY, $TSEM, $AEHR, $RPI, $MU，我都是今年年初或去年就建仓的。 然后告诉我你是不是还那么想。
- English · 原文Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.中文 · 翻译感觉我今年二月关于 $IQE 的投资论点，跟 $AXTI 等其他股票一样，都得到了验证。(我仍然持有这两只股票的多头仓位) 所以我就没那么频繁地写它们了。不过关于最新的进展，长话短说： 今年早些时候，当我发布关于 IQE 的论点时，它在光学供应链中是一个处于困境但至关重要的瓶颈，与 $LITE 等公司有联系。 自那时起： - $MTSI 签订了长期磊晶片供应协议，并持有该公司股份，现在 IQE 已经摆脱了银行债务（Macom 有可转债，但这是积极的） - $TSEM 签订了 InP 磊晶片协议。 - 管理层明确表示，其与 IQE 的协议是为了确保“该路线图所需的战略性 III-V 磊晶片供应”。 - IQE 又签了一份约 1400 万美元的神秘 AI 数据中心合同。 我早期论点中唯一还在发展的部分是 IQE 将其闲置/未充分利用的产能转向 AI 数据中心领域，以赶上 Landmark 等同行（这需要时间，如果我没记错的话，大概一年多一点）。 这里面有一些我不想谈的国家安全考量，让它们变得更加重要。 但总的来说： 2025 财年营收：9730 万英镑 2026 财年指引：超过 1.265 亿英镑 它们在光学领域又开始快速增长，摆脱了银行债务/困境清算状态，并且仍然是西方光学供应链中的一个关键瓶颈。 现在……有了与领先光子学公司的新协议来推动营收增长，以及 Macom 这样的参与者作为软性支撑。 投资论点得到验证后，我通常就会坐享业务增长了。
- English · 原文I literally and legally can't give you advice. I'm personally long and still bullish on $AXTI since I don't think InP substrate demand imbalance will be going anywhere over the next 2-3 years. And my InP substrate bottleneck thesis + AI buildout disruption got validated midway through the year from Reuters to other epiwafer earnings calls. You do you中文 · 翻译我无论从字面还是法律上，都不能给你任何建议。 我个人是看多并且依然看好 $AXTI，因为我觉得磷化铟（InP）衬底的需求不平衡在未来2-3年内不会消失。 而且我关于InP衬底瓶颈的论点，再加上AI建设带来的颠覆性影响，在今年年中就通过路透社报道和其他外延片公司财报电话会议得到了验证。 你自己看着办吧。
- English · 原文It makes me happy that people are reiterating my $AXTI thesis from last year like it's a legitimate threat to the AI buildout now. Also just some nuance Innolight, buys EML/CW lasers off other players, which is the bottleneck. Not so much downstream assembly/integration layers.中文 · 翻译看到大家现在又在翻炒我去年关于 $AXTI 的论点，说它对 AI 建设构成实实在在的威胁，我挺开心的。 另外再补充一点，Innolight 是从其他厂商那里买 EML/CW 激光器，这才是瓶颈所在。下游的组装/集成层倒不是主要问题。
- English · 原文@R_o_LwSzr $AXTI is too far upstream. I definitely do not see them going to be export controlled by the US. But they could be used in retaliation, we’ll see.中文 · 翻译@R_o_LwSzr $AXTI 的业务太上游了。我真不觉得美国会把它列入出口管制清单。 不过，他们可能会被当作报复手段，走着瞧吧。
- English · 原文@tsorfF7 $AXTI casually up 64% today lol, just a normal day in your markets. https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ中文 · 翻译@tsorfF7 $AXTI 今天随便就涨了 64% 哈哈，你那市场真是天天都正常。https://t.co/1R71TfavjJ
- English · 原文$AXTI secured LTA with $COHR earlier, with a $22.3M reservation payment. As well as a LTA with $LITE today, totaling $87M ($43.5M + $43.5M) again to reserve capacity. Considering that these are both of the two leading optical players, seems positive. The actual details such as pricing of the contracts aren't known, so we'll find out more.中文 · 翻译$AXTI 之前和 $COHR 签了个长期供货协议（LTA），收到了一笔 $22.3M 的预付款。 今天又和 $LITE 签了个 LTA，总额是 $87M（$43.5M + $43.5M），也是为了预定产能。 考虑到这两家都是光学领域的头部玩家，这事看起来挺积极的。 合同的具体细节，比如定价之类的还不清楚，所以我们还要等等看。
- English · 原文$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity. https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa中文 · 翻译$AXTI 和 $LITE 达成一项关于磷化铟（InP）衬底的长期协议。 Lumentum 同意支付 $43.5M 的定金，以预留产能。https://t.co/5Dl3L9EYRa
- English · 原文Yep, it’s interesting to witness retail capitulation. After we got Bloomberg Meta compute article cleared up by their internal memo. And the 2 reports on delays were denied by Nvidia. Both of which caused the selloff in the first place... So Photonics / Nvidia’s roadmap hasn’t fundamentally changed: $LITE is still completely sold out for the next 2 years and likely into 2029. $SIVE is about to volume ramp with GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Poet, Ayar, and other hyperscaler suppliers. $TSM COUPE and their TW suppliers from Shunsin to Foci aren’t randomly disappearing into the void. $AAOI and their $471m/month h2 2027 revenue projections haven’t changed. $IQE and their epiwafer contracts with Macom and Tower Semi haven’t disappeared. $AXTI ownership of 40% of the InP substrate supply chains haven’t suddenly disappeared. As with any theme from Rocketlab + Space sector 50% drop back in 2025. Or Nebius + Neocloud 50% drop entering 2026. Or the Samsung/SK Hynix crash from Iran War LNG/Helium/Oil fears few months ago. Volatility from indiscriminate thematic selloffs isn’t typically representative of individual company fundamentals. Retail tends to build conviction over price movements and imaginary charts, then lose that when a stock drops. And institutions are probably placing limit orders to capitalize on that. Conviction shouldn’t be tied to the quote of a stock on a certain day, but long term revenue or operating income growth.中文 · 翻译没错，看到散户认输挺有意思的。 彭博社关于Meta算力的那篇文章，在他们内部备忘录澄清之后， 还有那两份关于延迟的报道，也被英伟达否认了。 这两件事本来就是导致这次抛售的原因…… 所以，光子学/英伟达的路线图并没有根本性改变：
- English · 原文@starlightrvrie Yep still holding $AXTI. And a lot of my older thesis like $EWY that are up hundreds of percent. Even if I don’t mention it as much anymore中文 · 翻译@starlightrvrie 对，还在持有 $AXTI。还有很多我以前的观点，比如 $EWY，都涨了好几百个百分点。 即使我现在不怎么提它们了
- English · 原文Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.中文 · 翻译这么说吧： 散户觉得跌个 30-60% 就是“飞刀”，套牢的人永远翻不了身。 然后他们看到那些波浪线技术分析，还有人把有价值的咽喉要道公司跟那些梗股相提并论，结果就恐慌性抛售了。 我把这看作是长期持有以下资产的机会： - 下一个超大规模数据中心供应商，$NBIS，预计第四季度年化收入达到 70-90 亿美元 - 拥有 40% 的磷化铟供应链份额，$AXTI - 下一个光通信技术变革的领导者，$SIVE，拥有连续波DFB激光器 - 美国人形机器人领域的领导者，$CCXI，未来万亿级主题的核心 诸如此类……而且估值更便宜。 虽然我可能会通过降低保证金或对冲我的投资组合来做些调整，但如果投资逻辑没变，我个人在股票下跌时并不会恐慌。 非投资建议，显然这也取决于大家的投资时间框架： 因为对那些靠投资支付房租或学费的人来说，一次暴跌可能会改变他们的人生。（这也是为什么我个人认为其他人应该做自己的尽职调查，并根据自己的风险承受能力选择长期持有的股票） 但我个人的目标是在下一代超级周期到来之前，尽可能多地布局。 我觉得机构也是这么想的，这也是为什么在整个过程中会有很多诱导性波动，以最大化他们的仓位。 如果投资逻辑最终被证实是正确的，那么估值长期来看也会体现出来。
- English · 原文This is the average visual TA bro, takes a 50% 50% coinflip: If it goes the other way, they say "ABC Pattern Invalidated", should have known... If they get the coinflip right, they promote their $40/month chart. -> People drawing swiggly lines over KOSPI mean nothing where it heads. When it's primarily Samsung/SK Hynix and forward operating income growth from DRAM/NAND. -> The swiggly drawing over $SIVE, $AEHR, and others mean nothing. When it's primarily hyperscaler suppliers, thematic premiums, and volume ramp orders determining valuations. Then if something randomly goes from $1 to $60 like $AXTI, they claim they spotted it with their "Golden Egg Dragon Candle", while ignoring anything with InP substrate and otpical demand. There's rare times like these where it's a massive sector drop all together. But now the TA bros are showing up everywhere saying here's a $40 course on how they predicted it with swiggly lines.中文 · 翻译这就是那种一般的画图技术分析派，干的就是五五开的抛硬币活儿： 如果走势反了，他们就说“ABC形态失效了”，早该知道的…… 如果他们抛对了，他们就会推广自己每月收费 $40 的图表。 -> 在 KOSPI 指数上画那些弯弯曲曲的线，
- English · 原文$AXTI signs 3-year wafer deal with $COHR. "Coherent will make a prepayment of $22,288,500 to AXT-Tongmei in exchange for a committed supply capacity." https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96中文 · 翻译$AXTI 和 $COHR 签了三年晶圆供货协议。 “Coherent 将向 AXT-Tongmei 预付 22,288,500 美元，以换取其承诺的供应产能。” https://t.co/nTkyJSMo96
- English · 原文After $AXTI went from $13 to $140, somewhere along the way up they had a massive float expansion along with dilution. Which it got approved, so as I mentioned before, I wasn't as comfortable talking about it if there's excessive dilution on retail investors. But I do think it's undervalued if they weaponize price hikes like $SNDK.中文 · 翻译$AXTI 股价从 $13 涨到 $140 之后，在上涨过程中他们进行了一次大规模的流通股扩容，也伴随着稀释。 这个扩容方案通过了，所以就像我之前提到的，如果对散户投资者稀释过大的话，我就不太舒服去谈论它。 但我确实觉得如果他们像 $SNDK 那样把涨价作为武器的话，那它就被低估了。
- English · 原文FYI, I posted ideas about $AXTI at $15, $AAOI at $30, $TSEM at $115, $LITE $300, $MU $300, $SNDK $400, $EWY $110, $SIVE $4. $IQE $13, $SOI $44 and so on. So when they finally have a massive correction due to macro drop the ideas are wrong? And most are still up a few hundred percent. TW CPO names are just really early and I’m down a lot on those but I expect them to recover in due time.中文 · 翻译说一下，我在 $AXTI 15 美元、$AAOI 30 美元、$TSEM 115 美元、$LITE 300 美元、$MU 300 美元、$SNDK 400 美元、$EWY 110 美元、$SIVE 4 美元的时候发过看多观点。 还有 $IQE 13 美元、$SOI 44 美元之类的。 所以，等这些票因为宏观暴跌而大幅回调时，我的观点就错了？可大部分涨幅依然还有几百个百分点呢。 台股 CPO 那几只只是启动太早了，我在这上面亏了不少，但我预期它们到时候会涨回来的。
- English · 原文Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%. - Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M. - Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD. - Software like $CRM down -40%. - Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k. Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes. However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps. But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run. I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.中文 · 翻译感觉现在唯一还没崩的… 大概就是像 $MU 这样的存储芯片、指数，或者英特尔这类大盘半导体（到目前为止）。 - 光子学从 $AXTI 到 $SIVE，跌了 40%。 - 太空股 $ASTS 和 $RKLB，一个月跌了 40%。 - 热门 AI 股比如 $PLTR，年初至今跌了约 35%。 - 软件股像 $CRM，跌了 40%。 - 比特币跌破 6 万，以太坊跌破 1600 美元。 碰上鹰派美联储的叙事、还有可能加息，这日子可不好过。 不过，这波下跌感觉确实有点过头了，主要是因为流动性较差资产的保证金平仓，和巨型股相比尤其明显。 但走着瞧吧，通常长期来看，基本面会盖过流动性冲击。 我个人仍然看好 AI 基建和上游 AI 资本支出的受益股，但一两次潜在的加息肯定起不到什么帮助。
- English · 原文Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a massive drawdown recently, CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad. Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly. With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with. Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme. I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions. But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up. If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028. Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now. Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.中文 · 翻译我也这么觉得。不过在那之前，我给自己的策略起了个名字：多元化亏损。 拿 $AXTI、$SOI、$AAOI 来说，还有一大堆别的。 最近回撤挺大的， CPO 相关的仓位跌得最狠（Foci、Msscorp 这些），连带那些沾边的标的也惨，真难受。 可能对我来说，教训就是光子学这块儿仓位太集中了，没怎么配存储或其他板块，也没有好好做对冲和权重分配。 Soitec 那边，出了几份我不太认同的负面机构报告。 个人觉得 AXT 跌得更凶，主要是因为流通股扩张/稀释的问题。AAOI 嘛，大概就是被这个主题一起带下来的。 我没法给买卖建议，所以要不要做成本摊平或建仓，完全看你自己的判断。 不过我还是认为，光子学这边我们还在超级周期的早期阶段，一路上涨的过程中肯定会有回调或暴跌。 但如果我个人的判断是对的，这些标的很多会在 2027 年中到 2028 年迎来一个重大的转折点。 市场一般不会等到事情发生才提前定价，不过考虑到现在已经是 2026 年下半年了，有些想法可能稍微早了点，或者还处在建设期。 所以关键还是要建立你自己的信念。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Yeah... I'm not quite sure why everyone likes just throwing personal accusations. Like "scam" or "memestock" every time I post a thesis. Like when I bought $AXTI (still holding shares btw): - spent the time mapping the InP substrate supply chain - found analyst sources around market share - tracked high purity indium pricing on SMM - modeled game theory around bottleneck hikes/supply shocks. - tracked Gov publications like seizure of optical companies or export controls Then just posted the idea for free, cause it's a hobby. Everyone just threw out personal insults as it went up in price... Just for Reuters to confirm it 7M later that InP substrates can halt the AI buildout. I'm just sharing ideas out for free, could always be wrong, and they usually take some time to play out. But would prefer instead if folks/media played devil's advocate on the thesis side like export controls or ASP pricing power... Over just making up narratives or personal accusations like "memestock" or "foreign institutional team" when they lack the technical depth to understand AI supply chains.中文 · 翻译是啊……我真的不太明白为什么大家一看到我发分析贴就喜欢扔上来一堆人身攻击。 动不动就喊“骗局”啊、“迷因股”啊什么的。 比如我当初买 $AXTI 的时候（声明：现在仍然持有）： - 花时间梳理了 InP 衬底的供应链 - 找到了分析师关于市场份额的数据来源 - 跟踪了 SMM 上高纯铟的报价 - 对瓶颈涨价/供应冲击做了博弈论模型 - 跟踪了政府部门发布的文件，比如光学公司被扣押、出口管制之类的 然后免费把思路发出来，纯粹是个爱好。 结果股价一涨，所有人就开始人身攻击…… 七个月后路透社才证实，InP 衬底确实会阻碍 AI 基础设施建设。 我不过是在免费分享思路，当然也可能看错，而且这些逻辑通常需要时间来验证。 但我更希望的是，大家或者媒体能从分析层面来反驳，比如出口管制或者 ASP 定价权这类角度…… 而不是在缺乏技术深度、根本不懂 AI 供应链的情况下，编造些“迷因股”、“外资团队”之类的叙事或人身攻击。
- English · 原文@aistruder CPO hasn't ramped up yet so very early. Shunsin should actually benefit the fastest though given H2 scale out with Foxconn. Win Semi is great regardless but benefits from photonics vertical. Foci/Msscorps are more h2 2027. $AXTI took like 5-7 months to fully play out.中文 · 翻译@aistruder CPO 还没开始放量，所以现在还很早期。不过考虑到鸿海在下半年规模扩大，Shunsin 实际上应该是受益最快的。 Win Semi 无论如何都很棒，但它受益于光子学垂直领域。Foci/Msscorps 更偏向 2027 下半年。 $AXTI 从启动到完全兑现用了大概 5-7 个月。
- English · 原文@yangqisniper $AXTI was a fun one. Actually every single one of my photonics ideas last year went up triple % digits. Got the entire theme + supply chain right! https://t.co/vpWpPO18b7中文 · 翻译@yangqisniper $AXTI 走势挺有意思的。 实际上，我去年所有的光子学方向，每一个都涨了好几倍。整个主题加上供应链，全都踩对了！https://t.co/vpWpPO18b7
- English · 原文Fun throwback to random ideas back in 2025. Back then, $AAOI was $2B MC, $LITE was a $26B MC, $AXTI was $500M Now: - AAOI is $15.37B - Lumentum is $74.47B - AXT is $7.24B Was working off less information back then, given it was an early theme. Obviously nuances with ASIC programs might have been missed as more details came out. But directionally, glad thematically my ideas turned out correct. Feels like dejavu seeing current $3B MC optical longs like $SIVE.中文 · 翻译回顾一下2025年那些天马行空的想法，挺有意思的。 那个时候，$AAOI市值20亿美元，$LITE市值260亿美元，$AXTI市值5亿美元。 现在： - AAOI市值153.7亿美元 - Lumentum市值744.7亿美元 - AXT市值72.4亿美元 当时信息更少，毕竟还是个早期主题。 当然，随着更多细节浮出水面，ASIC项目的一些细微差别可能被我忽略了。 但方向上看，很高兴我的主题思路最终是正确的。 看着现在市值30亿美元的光学多头标的，比如$SIVE，感觉就像是既视感。
- English · 原文This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.中文 · 翻译这肯定要让很多人不高兴了： 但技术分析（TA）对交易者来说，就是占星术。 它就是个确认偏误，再加上利用人们入场交易时的心理。 有点像当初人们在 $SPCX IPO 时抢跑 $SPCE，就是料到散户会因为交易心理搞混股票代码。 $SIVE 涨了
- English · 原文@Expelliamus9 $AXTI took many months to play out, before companies and governments started confirming the InP substrate bottleneck. I don’t think CPO related ideas should be judged in a 1 month timeframe!中文 · 翻译@Expelliamus9 $AXTI 花了几个月时间才发酵出来，然后公司和政府才开始确认 InP 衬底存在瓶颈。 我觉得跟 CPO 相关的概念不该用一个月的时间维度来评判！
- English · 原文Just some reflection, my core high conviction ideas from 2025 aged super well! From $ALAB: $97-> $372 $LITE: $330 -> $904 $AAOI: $30 -> $175 And others like $NBIS, $RKLB, and $TSM! This was back when I had close to no followers! I got some nuances slightly off before more information was made public. Lost conviction on ALAB along the way with optical transitions. But this was back when AAOI and others were small $3B companies (~$14B now). So maybe some others in the same range today like $SIVE should get some more attention? But I’m happy a lot of them aged super well. And I think a large part of my recent following growth is just other seeing my ideas like $AXTI get validated over time.中文 · 翻译随便回想一下，我在 2025 年那会儿的核心重仓思路，表现一直很稳！ 从 $ALAB：$97 -> $372 $LITE：$330 -> $904 $AAOI：$30 -> $175 还有像 $NBIS、$RKLB 和 $TSM 这些！ 那会儿我几乎都没什么粉丝！ 有些细节在更多信息公开前我稍微判断偏了点。光模块转型那阵子，我对 ALAB 的信念也动摇了。 但这还是在 AAOI 和其他公司还是个小 $30 亿公司的时候（现在大概 $140 亿了）。 所以今天同样级别的公司，比如 $SIVE，是不是也该多关注一下？ 不过我很开心，其中很多票都跑得很稳。 而且我觉得最近粉丝涨得这么快，很大程度上就是大家看到我像 $AXTI 这样的思路，慢慢被市场验证了。
- English · 原文Still have my $AXTI, and positions in others I haven’t mentioned as much like $ALRIB or $LPK. Axt different reason though, one part is dilution concerns, so there’s some newer float structure risks. Other part is not wanting to cause more export controls by talking about some things中文 · 翻译$AXTI 我还是拿着，另外还有一些我平时提得没那么多的仓位，比如 $ALRIB 和 $LPK。 不过 Axt 的情况不太一样，一部分是担心稀释，所以存在一些较新的流通盘结构上的风险。 另一部分呢，是不想因为聊某些事情，招来更多的出口管制。
- English · 原文People do valuation analysis wrong on names like Sivers or $AXTI. You won’t be able to model $SIVE revenue projections if they’re end up doing M&A + TAM expansioning down optical engines/ELS/optical transceiver stack. Right now it’s looking at all the hyperscaler supply chains they’re qualified into, and a venture style thesis on how they can capture more market share of overall CPO supercycle.中文 · 翻译大家对 Sivers 或者 $AXTI 这类公司的估值分析方法都搞错了。 如果他们最终是通过并购 + 扩大 TAM 的方式，向下游的光引擎/ELS/光收发器整条产业链延伸，那你根本没法给 $SIVE 建立营收预测模型。 现在要看的，是他们已经进入了哪些超大规模云厂商的供应链，以及一个风险投资式的投资逻辑——他们能如何在整体 CPO 超级周期中抢占更多市场份额。
- English · 原文Idk… I mean everyone called $AXTI a scam and now it’s up thousands of percent? Everyone called $AAOI management a scam and now that’s up 7x too. Institutions went out and criticized my $SOI long as well at $44 and now it’s $170… after they bought the float… Not sure if it’s short selling or trying to accumulate the float.中文 · 翻译不好说吧……当初人人都说 $AXTI 是骗局，结果现在涨了几千个百分点？ 当初人人都说 $AAOI 管理层是骗局，结果现在也涨了七倍。 机构们还跑出来批评我在 $44 做多 $SOI，结果现在涨到 $170 了……还是在它们买完流通盘之后…… 不确定这到底是做空，还是想偷偷吸筹。
- English · 原文I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing up in the epiwafer companies like landmark. All the modeling with AXT was with former contracts made, not after $SNDK style ASP hikes.中文 · 翻译说实话这些预测我全都中了 > InP 衬底瓶颈 > 激光器瓶颈，市场因为这一点奖励了拥有激光器 fab 的 $AAOI。 不过市场确实花了 6 个月才意识到 $AXTI 有多重要。还有瓶颈开始在 landmark 这类外延片公司显现出来。 所有对 AXT 建的模型都是用之前签的合同算的，而不是 $SNDK 那种涨价模式之后的数据。
- English · 原文This timeline of getting banned on $RDDT WSB for posting about $AXTI. That stock going up thousands of percent. Then becoming the #1 most subscribed to person on X feels kinda like a Naruto redemption arc to become hokage. Only 12k more to go. https://t.co/J8DNEbYXpl中文 · 翻译这条因为发 $AXTI 被 $RDDT WSB 封禁的时间线。 那只股涨了几千个点。 然后成了 X 上订阅人数第一的人，感觉有点像《火影忍者》里当上火影的逆袭剧情。 还差 12000 人就达成目标。https://t.co/J8DNEbYXpl
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
- English · 原文I think I deserve my own Netflix special after $AXTI and $SIVE? https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg中文 · 翻译我在 $AXTI 和 $SIVE 上的表现，应该配得上一部自己的 Netflix 特辑了吧？https://t.co/WeD80ogRXg
- English · 原文@happikoala2025 @beauty_oe 超かっこいい画像を作ってくれてありがとう！ まるでリザードンとトランセルが $AXTIと $SIVE みたいじゃない？ でも、トランセルはもうすぐ進化すると思うけどw中文 · 翻译@happikoala2025 @beauty_oe 谢谢你帮我做了这张超帅的图！ 这就像喷火龙和铁壳蛹，一个是 $AXTI，一个是 $SIVE 对吧？ 不过我觉得铁壳蛹应该就快进化了哈哈
- English · 原文Did you listen anon? $SIVE is extremely early. And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time. Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering. This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning. And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.中文 · 翻译你听到了吗，匿名用户？ $SIVE 现在极早期。 接下来一周，我们将首次看到大量机构资金涌入（Blackrock、Vanguard、MSCI、NASDAQ）。 然后，再加上很快就要在纳斯达克上市，会有更多美国机构进场。 这就是早期买入 $AXTI 或 $LITE 这类股票时的感觉。 而且这会儿，大机构资金还没大量涌入流通盘，CPO 超级周期也还没真正启动。
- English · 原文几个值得重点关注的“实质性垄断”标的: - MSSCORP (6830)：在检测和 CPO 良率把控上构筑了极深的专利护城河。 - $SOI：主导绝缘体上硅 (SOI) 衬底市场。 - NGK (5333)：稳拿薄膜铌酸锂 (TFLN) 晶圆核心技术。 - $AXTI：把控磷化铟 (InP) 衬底等上游关键材料。 像讯芯 (Shunsin) 这类公司其实很难被轻易颠覆，毕竟背靠富士康，而富士康本身就深深扎根于众多核心供应链的腹地 🏭 $SIVE 的逻辑也极其相似。他们已经成功打入 (design in) 了众多顶尖 CPO 架构的设计体系，抱紧了 Ayar、Lightelligence (壁仞的供应商)、Lightmatter 以及 Celestial 等 众行业领军者的大腿 相比之下，个人认为 $HIMX (奇景光电) 或 Foci (上诠) 未来面临被踢出局 (design out) 的风险最大，很有可能会被台积电的光学部门采钰 (Visera 6789) 这类巨头直接垂直整合。不过话说回来，在未来两三年内，借助 CPO 相关的光纤阵列 (FAU) 和无源器件，他们眼前依然有 波巨大的赚钱机遇中文 · 翻译原推为中文，无需翻译
- English · 原文You're comparing Sumitomo finished InP substrates vs AXT. $AXTI owns many many material chokepoints upstream required to make the finished substrates. And they're roughly ~40% of the entire InP supply chain like indium/gallium/precursors to pBN crucibles + processing. It's a materials problem, they can always price hike if they wanted to.中文 · 翻译你这是在比住友的成品 InP 衬底和 AXT 的情况。 $AXTI 在上游握有大量制造成品衬底所需要的材料瓶颈环节。而且他们大概占了整个 InP 供应链的 ~40%，从铟/镓/前驱体到 pBN 坩埚加上加工工艺。 这就是个材料问题，他们要是想涨价随时都可以。
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文@doomdayer Thanks! Yeah always fun to have those argument with $AXTI + inp substrates back at $15 with all your random retail investors who have 0 knowledge. Then it just happens to show up in all your Goldman Sachs/JPM analyst reports today as a bottleneck.中文 · 翻译@doomdayer 谢了！是啊，跟那些 $AXTI + inp 基板在 $15 的时候，随便哪个啥都不懂的散户投资者来跟你抬杠，那确实是挺有意思的。 结果今天呢，它就正好出现在所有高盛/摩根大通的分析师报告里，成了个瓶颈环节。
- English · 原文5 months ago. I gave a PT of $150 with $AXTI. Over 10x that current values from a $500M MC. It’s now a $9.2B MC and $140. $10 away. New $SIVE longs are starting to realize what’s it’s like to be in AXT. And that I’m pretty good at guessing intrinsic valuations of companies. https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV中文 · 翻译5 个月前。我给 $AXTI 定了个 $150 的目标价。 从 $500M 市值到现在涨了 10 倍多。 现在市值 $9.2B，股价 $140。还差 $10。 新进 $SIVE 的多头们，终于开始体会当初在 AXT 里的滋味了。 而且，我猜公司内在价值还是挺准的。 https://t.co/HXAoKmXmaV
- English · 原文??? $RDDT is literally lower IQ than $IREN investors? I didn't do all this research on $AXTI ... Just for you all to make 380% on it, call it a $MU memory competitor and then a scam? The lack of technical literacy is exactly why I got banned from there. https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM中文 · 翻译??? $RDDT 的投资者智商真的比 $IREN 的还低吗？ 我做了那么多关于 $AXTI 的研究... 可不是为了让你们在它身上赚 380%，然后把它说成 $MU 的内存竞争对手，接着又说是骗局？ 技术素养的缺失，正是我被那边封禁的原因。https://t.co/sgrFTgcwfM
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
AXTI 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：