CCXI
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
CCXI 整体偏多（看多 13 · 看空 0）
最近的一次性人形机器人投资，目前持有。
最近发言：2026/08/20 09:57 · 信心分 6/10
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历史观点（20 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文@EnamelEquity Nope, all my thematic baskets were picked earlier this year with memory like $EWY and CPO like $SIVE. Only recent was kinda humanoids with $CCXI, but that's one-off. I'm just waiting for everything to play out, not a fan of jumping ship to ship.中文 · 翻译@EnamelEquity 不，我所有的主题投资组合都是今年早些时候选好的，比如内存股 $EWY 和 CPO 概念股 $SIVE。 最近唯一加仓的是人形机器人概念股 $CCXI，但那只是个一次性操作。 我就是等着看一切发展，不喜欢频繁换仓。
- English · 原文Unitree (688836) is now public. And is valued at ~$53.3B, after rising +492.18% We finally have a major public company benchmark for humanoids. For reference, Agility (backed by $NVDA, $AMZN) via $CCXI is expected to go public at $2.5B premoney valuation Q4. $TSLA is $1T+, but Optimus is wrapped inside a much larger company. But I think Unitree showed that the demand for pure play humanoid players is much larger… than people expected in public markets.中文 · 翻译Unitree (688836) 现在上市了。 并且在上涨 492.18% 之后，估值达到了约 533 亿美元。 我们终于有了一个人形机器人领域的重大上市公司基准。 作为参考，Agility (由 $NVDA、$AMZN 支持) 通过 $CCXI 预计将在第四季度以 25 亿美元的投前估值上市。 $TSLA 市值超 1 万亿美元，但 Optimus 被包裹在一家大得多的公司里面。 但我认为 Unitree 表明，公开市场对纯粹的人形机器人公司的需求远比人们预期的要大得多……
- English · 原文@tRbW6qAUT717891 I can't buy A-Shares, so I'm sticking with US markets. Agility via $CCXI( $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank backed) is my personal exposure to humanoids. But I'm cheering on everyone who won the lottery for Unitree shares.中文 · 翻译@tRbW6qAUT717891 我买不了A股，所以还是专注美股吧。 通过 $CCXI ( $NVDA、$AMZN 和软银投资的) 投资 Agility，是我个人投资人形机器人赛道的途径。 但我还是为所有中签宇树科技股票的朋友们欢呼。
- English · 原文@AZAAC6 $CCXI name changes into Agility sometime in October at the earliest. So maybe 2 months from now. Officially it's Q4.中文 · 翻译@AZAAC6 $CCXI 最早会在十月份的某个时候改名 Agility。所以大概还有两个月吧。 官方说法是第四季度。
- English · 原文As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.中文 · 翻译至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。 我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。 也许其他主题也可以照做。
- English · 原文uhhh... the Unitree IPO is more than 8000 times oversubscribed by retail investors. The demand for pure play humanoid companies is absolutely enormous? I'm personally in the US-based Agility Robotics club (Softbank, $NVDA, $AMZN, Foxconn, etc), at $2.5B premoney via $CCXI. And my take is that Unitree likely opening at $30B+ (from pre-ipo perps), might bring the leading US players some more attention in a week or two. Regardless that's just absurd demand.中文 · 翻译呃……宇树科技这次IPO，散户认购超额了8000多倍。 所以，市场对纯粹做人形机器人的公司，需求简直是海量吗？ 我个人是属于美国那边的 Agility Robotics 俱乐部（有软银、$NVDA、$AMZN、富士康等大佬投资），估值是 $2.5B 投前（通过 $CCXI 参与）。 我个人看法是，宇树科技可能要以 $30B+ 的估值开盘（看它IPO前那些私募份额），这或许能让美国那边领先的几家公司在接下来一两周里获得更多关注。 不管怎么说，这需求简直太离谱了。
- English · 原文Just some near term events: - OCP APAC tomorrow (Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA) and your CPO players are giving announcements/updates. This should be a catalyst for certain optical players. - Earnings week: with $ASTS, $RKLB reporting today (space), $LITE on Tuesday (photonics), $NBIS in the middle of the week (Neocloud), and more. - Unitree IPO subscriptions opened up today and Listing is expected this month. Should be a potential catalyst for the humanoid + robotics sector if it opens up well eg. $CCXI. Fun week ahead.中文 · 翻译就说几个近期的事件吧： - 明天就是OCP亚太峰会（Ayar, Lightmatter, $AMD, $NVDA），届时你们关注的CPO玩家会发布公告/更新。 这应该会对某些光模块公司形成催化剂。 - 财报周：今天有$ASTS、$RKLB（航天领域）发财报，周二有$LITE（光子学领域），周中有$NBIS（Neocloud），等等。 - Unitree的IPO申购今天开放了，预计本月上市。 如果它上市表现不错，这应该会对人形机器人+机器人板块形成一个潜在的催化剂，比如$CCXI。 接下来一周会很有趣。
- English · 原文Unitree is being listed this month, and is expected to open around a $30B valuation (pre-IPO perps) from ~$5.6B -> $9B now. Given Agility is valued at $2.5B premoney with $CCXI, I’m just watching what happens to the robotics sector and especially Agility, when Unitree goes public. I’ve already laid down my thesis with humanoids and I’m personally waiting for it to play out.中文 · 翻译宇树本月上市，预计开盘估值在 300 亿美元左右（IPO 前的永续合约），目前估值已从约 56 亿美元涨到 90 亿美元。 考虑到 Agility 在 $CCXI 的交易中被估值 25 亿美元（投前），我就会密切关注宇树上市后，机器人行业会发生什么，尤其是 Agility。 我已经阐述了关于人形机器人的论点，我个人就在等它兑现。
- English · 原文Let’s put it this way: Retail thinks a 30-60% drop is a “falling knife” where bagholders will never recover. And they end up panic selling after seeing swiggly line TAs and people comparing valuable chokepoints to memes. I see it as long term ownership over: - the next hyperscaler with $NBIS, projecting $7-9B ARR Q4 - 40% of the InP supply chain with $AXTI - leader of the next optical shift with $SIVE with CW DFB lasers - leader of US humanoids with $CCXI inside a future trillion dollar theme And so on… At cheaper valuations. While I might do things like lowering margin or hedging with my own portfolio, I’m personally not panicking when something drops if the thesis didn’t change. NFA and obviously depends on people’s investing timeframes: Since a crash would be life changing for people that depend on investing for rent or tuition. (Which is why I personally think others should do their own DD and choose longs in line with their own risk profile) But my personal goal is maximizing exposure to the next-gen supercycles before they hit. I think institutions think the same way as well, which is why there’s a lot of induced volatility along the way to maximize their exposure. If a thesis ends up correct, the valuation should be reflected in the long run.中文 · 翻译这么说吧： 散户觉得跌个 30-60% 就是“飞刀”，套牢的人永远翻不了身。 然后他们看到那些波浪线技术分析，还有人把有价值的咽喉要道公司跟那些梗股相提并论，结果就恐慌性抛售了。 我把这看作是长期持有以下资产的机会： - 下一个超大规模数据中心供应商，$NBIS，预计第四季度年化收入达到 70-90 亿美元 - 拥有 40% 的磷化铟供应链份额，$AXTI - 下一个光通信技术变革的领导者，$SIVE，拥有连续波DFB激光器 - 美国人形机器人领域的领导者，$CCXI，未来万亿级主题的核心 诸如此类……而且估值更便宜。 虽然我可能会通过降低保证金或对冲我的投资组合来做些调整，但如果投资逻辑没变，我个人在股票下跌时并不会恐慌。 非投资建议，显然这也取决于大家的投资时间框架： 因为对那些靠投资支付房租或学费的人来说，一次暴跌可能会改变他们的人生。（这也是为什么我个人认为其他人应该做自己的尽职调查，并根据自己的风险承受能力选择长期持有的股票） 但我个人的目标是在下一代超级周期到来之前，尽可能多地布局。 我觉得机构也是这么想的，这也是为什么在整个过程中会有很多诱导性波动，以最大化他们的仓位。 如果投资逻辑最终被证实是正确的，那么估值长期来看也会体现出来。
- English · 原文Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.中文 · 翻译就马斯克一个人。 - 他和 $SPCX 基本上是美国在太空领域领先的唯一原因。 - $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。 他有时候对时间表的判断会有点偏差，但大方向是对的，所以我很确定他能让美国机器人在全球再次称霸。 不过我个人持有 $CCXI，因为我觉得 Agility 目前通过美国供应链以及跟 $MELI/$AMZN 的合作，在量产和商业化方面有更纯粹的业务敞口。
- English · 原文It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at. Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure… I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor. Investors would be foaming in the mouth for a private allocation, just due to psychology rather than underlying fundamentals. We’ve also seen this anchoring with $SPCX recently at $1.75T. Peak market inefficiency? Or lack of knowledge from retail?中文 · 翻译看到估值锚定和稀缺性引发的心理现象，真有意思。 比如，散户正通过封闭式基金（CEFs）购买 Figure，这家公司上次估值大概是 390 亿美元左右… 在 1580 亿美元的估值上，因为它是私有公司，差不多是（之前）4 倍的估值。 然后是 Agility Robotics $CCXI，这家公司的商业化前景更广。 它的投前估值大概是 43 亿美元，而且在公司改名前是公开可得的。当时的定价，更接近于 $AMZN、$NVDA、软银和富士康给它抬的那个价格。 然而，有些人最终为了获得敞口，支付了比已经涨过价的私募轮高出 4-5 倍的价格… 我确信，如果 Agility 也以 25 亿美元到 390 亿美元的估值进行一轮小规模私募（它绝对能做到），以此设定一个估
- English · 原文@haybee940 Yep, we finally have the brain with OpenAi/Anthropic breakthroughs. Now it’s time for robots (which have been backflipping for the past 10 years) like Boston Dynamics / $CCXI to come to life.中文 · 翻译@haybee940 是的，有了 OpenAI/Anthropic 的突破，我们终于有了“大脑”。 现在是时候让机器人（过去十年一直在做后空翻），比如波士顿动力/$CCXI 这样的，真正“活”过来了。
- English · 原文@ontrialperiod when global and US markets crash off misinformation and out of context quotes from $META. I probably want to clear that up? That thing said, $AAOI, $SIVE, and $CCXI do make up large concentration in my portfolio.中文 · 翻译@ontrialperiod 当全球和美国市场因为 $META 的错误信息和断章取义的言论而暴跌时。我大概想澄清一下？ 话虽如此，$AAOI、$SIVE 和 $CCXI 确实在我投资组合中占了很大比重。
- English · 原文Just this hour: BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI. I knew Agility Robotics would be popular… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd中文 · 翻译就在这一个小时里： BlueCrest Capital Management 及其亿万富翁 Michael Platt 已经越过持股门槛，披露持有 $CCXI 5.6% 的股份。 我就知道 Agility Robotics 会火起来的…… https://t.co/n7bqpmCykd
- English · 原文@SUOHA_AI I remember first investing in $RKLB back at $15 or so. It just find it rare to get exposure to a downstream + frontier sector leader. So I’m personally not missing this chance again with $CCXI.中文 · 翻译@SUOHA_AI 我记得第一次投资 $RKLB 大概在 $15 左右的时候。 我只是觉得，很少能接触到一个下游 + 前沿领域的领导者。所以这次对 $CCXI，我个人不会再错过这个机会了。
- English · 原文Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.中文 · 翻译在我的看法，Agility Robotics 可以说是目前美国在商业化方面排第一的人形机器人玩家。 个人排名： 1. Agility Robotics （通过 $CCXI） 2. $TSLA Optimus （万亿美元市值以上公司） 3. Figure 2025年估值 390 亿美元，现在可能更高了。 特斯拉很可能
- English · 原文I’m personally long $CCXI and have highest concentration in Agility Robotics (NFA). It’s currently around a ~$4.9B valuation. Figure’s last round was $39B last year, and that was before the increasing interest in humanoids/robotics this year. Then a large part of $TSLA $1T+ valuations come from humanoids. I like companies like LeaderDrive… but usually the downstream players capture the most value in the end. And I find it rare to see one that has public exposure early on.中文 · 翻译我个人做多 $CCXI，在 Agility Robotics 上仓位最重（非财务建议）。 它目前的估值大概在 49 亿美元左右。 Figure 去年的最后一轮融资估值是 390 亿美元，而且那还是在今年人形机器人/机器人领域热度飙升之前。 接着，$TSLA 万亿+美元的估值，很大一部分是靠人形机器人撑起来的。 我喜欢 LeaderDrive 这类公司… 但通常最终还是下游玩家能捕获到大部分价值。 而且我发现，早期就有公开市场投资机会的这类公司很少见。
- English · 原文Just a random thought, leading US humanoid players strangely me of the current LLM dynamics: Agility ( $CCXI ) kinda feels like Anthropic for robotics. With $AMZN and $NVDA heavily backing it, ingrained with $GOOGL Deepmind (like TPUs). And it starts off with enterprise commercialization. Optimus is kinda off doing its own thing like xAI. Supported by Tesla/Elon and his visionary roadmap as usual. Figure is like ChatGPT With Microsoft/OpenAI investing (kinda like Microsoft), then ended up kinda competing them by building their own VlA and setting them behind. But ends up top 2 leaders anyway. Boston Dynamics is Gemini Kinda started the entire humanoids thing like transformers with backflip videos. With R&D supported by $GOOGL but somehow let everyone else leapfrog them in commercialization. And then there’s $NVDA just chilling, silently powering the entire humanoids ecosystem.中文 · 翻译随感，美国领先的人形机器人公司，总让我想起现在大语言模型（LLM）的格局，还挺奇怪的： Agility ($CCXI) 有点像机器人界的 Anthropic。 有 $AMZN 和 $NVDA 大力支持，还融入了 $GOOGL Deepmind 的技术（就像 TPUs）。而且它一上来就搞企业级商业化。 Optimus 有点像 xAI 那样，自顾自地在做自己的东西。 一如既往地有特斯拉/马斯克和他的前瞻性路线图做后盾。 Figure 就像 ChatGPT。 有微软/OpenAI 投资（有点像微软），结果却有点和他们竞争起来，自己搞了 VlA，把他们甩在了后面。 不过反正也成了前两
- English · 原文@AleksandarGenov Probably Agility Robotics going public with $CCXI and all the media narratives around it was the catalyst. Feels like $OUST, $AEVA and other names were pretty flat until the announcement. As for energy like $FCEL, $BE, seems pretty fundamental with new upsized contracts中文 · 翻译@AleksandarGenov 可能是 Agility Robotics 借壳 $CCXI 上市，以及围绕它的一切媒体宣传成了催化剂。 感觉 $OUST、$AEVA 等其他名字在消息宣布前一直都挺平淡的。 至于像 $FCEL、$BE 这样的能源股，新的大额合同感觉主要是基本面驱动。
- English · 原文Yep! Agility Robotics is currently my favorite humanoid/robotics position. They're set to be listed on NASDAQ via $CCXI as early as September (per Digitimes). Just for informational purposes: Their V4 humanoid robot is already operating in sites like Amazon. And have V5 slated for mass production next year (they have a 10,000+ /year capacity). Investors include Foxconn, $NVDA, $AMZN, Softbank, and now Serenity. I've been personally waiting for humanoid exposure for awhile (Agility is set to be the first US pure-play listed one) to the point I was actually planning on investing in Unitree's IPO. But I'm glad now I personally have a compelling alternative now since I prefer to invest capital to build up Made in America supply chains (75% of their components are US-sourced from investor desks). There are risks assigned to SPACs such as listing delays, or cancellation. But excited to see what happens next with developments. I do hope this encourages other frontier companies to go public early on.中文 · 翻译好的！Agility Robotics 目前是我最看好的人形机器人/机器人领域的持仓。 他们最早可能在九月通过 $CCXI 在纳斯达克上市（据 Digitimes 报道）。 只是提供信息：他们的人形机器人 V4 已经在亚马逊等地方投入运营。而 V5 计划明年量产（他们有每年超过 10,000 台的产能）。 投资者包括富士康、$NVDA、$AMZN、软银，现在又多了 Serenity。 我个人等人形机器人概念股很久了（Agility 将会是第一家在美国上市的纯人形机器人公司），甚至一度计划投资宇树科技的 IPO。 但我很高兴现在我个人有了一个很有吸引力的替代选择，因为我更喜欢把资金投向建立“美国制造”的供应链（他们 75% 的零部件都来自投资者的美国采购）。 SPAC 会有上市延迟或取消的风险。但我很期待看到后续的发展。 我确实希望这能鼓励其他前沿公司尽早上市。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
CCXI 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：