ESMTY · Serenity 持续观点

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结论速览

ESMTY 整体偏多（看多 1 · 看空 0）

ESMTY看好，因市场低估了旧内存产品价格因供应紧张将持续大幅上涨至2027年的影响。

最近发言：2026/08/29 20:57 · 信心分 7/10

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历史观点（1 条，最新在上）

2026/08/29 20:57UTC看多信心分：7/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments. Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff. If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to: 1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026. 2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026. 3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening) 4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density) 5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate For official breakdown: DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue eMCP/MCP ≈30% Analog + other ≈15% Regardless, duration/hikes is the key: -> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term." -> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4. -> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030) -> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders -> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028" ->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3. -> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere ______ If I had to state my thoughts again: I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes. Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027. Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in). I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's wafer hike effects. Maybe playing duoQ with Rank 1 Challenger "ESMT" in LoL classic... Is more fun than playing with hardstuck "Micron" in League?
2026/08/29 20:57UTC看多信心分：7/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
对，ESMT (3006) 确实在好几个传统存储器领域都有业务。它家产品线有：SLC/SPI NAND、NOR Flash、DDR2/DDR3、MCP/eMCP，反正就是那些有意思的传统存储器产品。如果你想看看 ESMT 接下来会受益的更广泛的行业涨价情况： 1. SLC NAND：2026 年下半年涨幅约 120-170%。 2. DDR2：2026 年第三季度涨幅约 35-40%。 3. DDR4：第三季度涨幅 +30–40%（DDR3 供应也在收紧） 4. NOR：下半年涨幅 +60–65%+（高密度产品） 5. MCP/eMCP：根据我自己的估算，ESMT 这块可能会环比上涨约 +15–25%。官方细分： DDR2 + DDR3：占营收约 45% DDR4/其他 DRAM：占营收约 10% eMCP/MCP：约 30% 模拟芯片 + 其他：约 15% 无论如何，持续时间和涨幅是关键： → “全球主要的 SLC NAND 供应商短期内都没有增加新产能的计划。” → TrendForce 专门提到，库存耗尽将使 SLC NAND 在第四季度更加紧缺。 → 华邦电退出 DDR2 市场，将使库存更加紧张（他们已经将分配计划做到 2029-2030 年了） → ESMT 管理层表示，市场主要问题是供应，而非需求；公司获得的晶圆代工产能分配，仅能满足客户订单的约 60–70%。 → 南亚科：“内存短缺可能持续到 2027 年底，2028 年供需仍将紧张。” → 南亚科明确表示，产能限制可能导致 DDR5、LPDDR5、DDR4、LPDDR4 和 DDR3 全面短缺。 → ESMT 表示，由于成熟制程资源被调往其他地方，eMCP 也属于受益于订单转移的产品。 ______ 如果非要我再表达一下我的想法：我认为，即便考虑了力积电 45% 的晶圆代工涨价，ESMT 按 7 月年化计算的约 1.9 倍市盈率仍可能进一步压缩，因为传统存储器价格还会继续上涨。行业评论也支持这种持续性，直到 2027 年。锦上添花的是，如果我们开始看到长期供货协议 (LTA) 和 2029-2030 年的能见度（但这还没被计入）。我觉得市场要么不知道这些，要么是错误估计了持续时间，要么是高估了力积电晶圆代工涨价的影响。也许在 LoL 经典模式里，和 Rank 1 挑战者“ESMT”双排… 比起和卡在某个段位的“Micron”一起玩更有趣？

在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点

ESMTY 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：

$SIVE · 249 条观点 $NVDA · 145 条观点 $AAOI · 137 条观点

全部跟踪标的 →机构、内部人士与国会议员持仓动态 →

历史观点（1 条，最新在上）

2026/08/29 20:57UTC看多信心分：7/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Yep, ESMT (3006) has exposure to multiple legacy memory segments. Has a portfolio of: SLC/SPI NAND, NOR Flash, DDR2/DDR3, MCP/eMCP, so all the fun legacy stuff. If you want to look at broader industry price hikes coming up that ESMT has exposure to: 1. SLC NAND: ~120-170% for H2 2026. 2. DDR2: ~35-40% for Q3 2026. 3. DDR4: +30–40% Q3 (with DDR3 tightening) 4. NOR +60–65%+ for H2 (high density) 5. MCP/eMCP: maybe ~+15–25% QoQ for ESMT from my own estimate For official breakdown: DDR2 + DDR3: ~45% of revenue DDR4/other DRAM ~ 10% of revenue eMCP/MCP ≈30% Analog + other ≈15% Regardless, duration/hikes is the key: -> "none of the major global SLC NAND suppliers plan to add new production capacity in the near term." -> TrendForce specifically expects depleted inventories to make SLC NAND even tighter in Q4. -> Winbond withdrawing DDR2, would make inventory even tighter (and they're doing allocations into 2029-2030) -> ESMT management said the market's main problem was supply, not demand; the company's foundry allocations covered only roughly 60–70% of customer orders -> Nanya: "memory shortages could last through the end of 2027, with supply and demand still tight in 2028" ->Nanya explicitly said capacity constraints could cause shortages across DDR5, LPDDR5, DDR4, LPDDR4 and DDR3. -> ESMT included eMCP among the products receiving order-transfer benefits as mature node resources were being pulled elsewhere ______ If I had to state my thoughts again: I think ESMT's ~1.9x July annualized run-rate P/E could compress further, despite factoring in PSMC's 45% wafer hike due to further legacy memory price hikes. Industry commentary supports durability throughout 2027. Cherry on top is if we start seeing LTAs and visibility into 2029-2030 (but not factored in). I think markets either don't know about this, are mispricing duration, or overestimating PSMC's wafer hike effects. Maybe playing duoQ with Rank 1 Challenger "ESMT" in LoL classic... Is more fun than playing with hardstuck "Micron" in League?

2026/08/29 20:57UTC看多信心分：7/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

对，ESMT (3006) 确实在好几个传统存储器领域都有业务。它家产品线有：SLC/SPI NAND、NOR Flash、DDR2/DDR3、MCP/eMCP，反正就是那些有意思的传统存储器产品。如果你想看看 ESMT 接下来会受益的更广泛的行业涨价情况： 1. SLC NAND：2026 年下半年涨幅约 120-170%。 2. DDR2：2026 年第三季度涨幅约 35-40%。 3. DDR4：第三季度涨幅 +30–40%（DDR3 供应也在收紧） 4. NOR：下半年涨幅 +60–65%+（高密度产品） 5. MCP/eMCP：根据我自己的估算，ESMT 这块可能会环比上涨约 +15–25%。官方细分： DDR2 + DDR3：占营收约 45% DDR4/其他 DRAM：占营收约 10% eMCP/MCP：约 30% 模拟芯片 + 其他：约 15% 无论如何，持续时间和涨幅是关键： → “全球主要的 SLC NAND 供应商短期内都没有增加新产能的计划。” → TrendForce 专门提到，库存耗尽将使 SLC NAND 在第四季度更加紧缺。 → 华邦电退出 DDR2 市场，将使库存更加紧张（他们已经将分配计划做到 2029-2030 年了） → ESMT 管理层表示，市场主要问题是供应，而非需求；公司获得的晶圆代工产能分配，仅能满足客户订单的约 60–70%。 → 南亚科：“内存短缺可能持续到 2027 年底，2028 年供需仍将紧张。” → 南亚科明确表示，产能限制可能导致 DDR5、LPDDR5、DDR4、LPDDR4 和 DDR3 全面短缺。 → ESMT 表示，由于成熟制程资源被调往其他地方，eMCP 也属于受益于订单转移的产品。 ______ 如果非要我再表达一下我的想法：我认为，即便考虑了力积电 45% 的晶圆代工涨价，ESMT 按 7 月年化计算的约 1.9 倍市盈率仍可能进一步压缩，因为传统存储器价格还会继续上涨。行业评论也支持这种持续性，直到 2027 年。锦上添花的是，如果我们开始看到长期供货协议 (LTA) 和 2029-2030 年的能见度（但这还没被计入）。我觉得市场要么不知道这些，要么是错误估计了持续时间，要么是高估了力积电晶圆代工涨价的影响。也许在 LoL 经典模式里，和 Rank 1 挑战者“ESMT”双排… 比起和卡在某个段位的“Micron”一起玩更有趣？