HPS.A · Serenity 持续观点

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

44.8万

专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。

结论速览

HPS.A 整体偏多（看多 1 · 看空 0）

HPS.A 是AI建设瓶颈的关键供应商，订单积压同比增长96.9%，市场份额强劲。

最近发言：2026/08/18 16:38 · 信心分 6/10

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历史观点（1 条，最新在上）

2026/08/18 16:38UTC看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
I still have positions in both companies? What I hold shouldn't affect your own decisions. Transformer bottlenecks are stalling the US AI buildout now and lead times are very long for both dry and liquid (which is more extreme). Backlog is +96.9% Y/Y for $HPS.A and given their market share... I don't they're going anywhere. Pretty sure I shared this idea at ~170, it did 2x, but corrected back to 240 now, but cost average is different per person I guess. The Belgian company is primarily H1 2028 as a CPO/photonics volume ramp beneficary. And the work they're doing with MTP with IMEC for $NVDA as an end user in evaluation stage should be very interesting. Their CHIP act facility for MEMS/photonics also comes online H2 2028 too, and 800V transitions should bring them material revenue growth for anything SiC adjacent next year. I'm down -31%, since my cost average is a lot higher. But they're approaching levels where replacement book value is a lot higher than MC.
2026/08/18 16:38UTC看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
我在这两家公司都还有持仓？我的持仓情况不应该影响你的决策。现在，变压器瓶颈正在阻碍美国的AI建设，而且无论是干式还是液式（液式更极端），交货周期都非常长。 $HPS.A 的积压订单同比增长了96.9%，再考虑到他们的市场份额…… 我不觉得他们会出什么问题。我很确定我大概在$170的时候分享过这个想法，它涨了两倍，但现在又回调到了$240，不过每个人的成本价肯定不一样。这家比利时公司主要会在2028年上半年受益于CPO/光子学产能的大规模增长。而且他们正在与IMEC合作，为作为终端用户的 $NVDA 进行MTP的工作，目前处于评估阶段，这应该会非常有趣。他们根据《芯片法案》建造的MEMS/光子学工厂也会在2028年下半年投入运营，明年，800V电压的转型应该会给他们在任何与SiC相关的业务上带来显著的营收增长。我亏了31%，因为我的平均成本要高得多。但它们正在接近一个水平，在这个水平上，重置账面价值远高于市值。

在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点

HPS.A 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：

$SIVE · 222 条观点 $AAOI · 124 条观点 $NVDA · 120 条观点

全部跟踪标的 →机构、内部人士与国会议员持仓动态 →

历史观点（1 条，最新在上）

2026/08/18 16:38UTC看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

I still have positions in both companies? What I hold shouldn't affect your own decisions. Transformer bottlenecks are stalling the US AI buildout now and lead times are very long for both dry and liquid (which is more extreme). Backlog is +96.9% Y/Y for $HPS.A and given their market share... I don't they're going anywhere. Pretty sure I shared this idea at ~170, it did 2x, but corrected back to 240 now, but cost average is different per person I guess. The Belgian company is primarily H1 2028 as a CPO/photonics volume ramp beneficary. And the work they're doing with MTP with IMEC for $NVDA as an end user in evaluation stage should be very interesting. Their CHIP act facility for MEMS/photonics also comes online H2 2028 too, and 800V transitions should bring them material revenue growth for anything SiC adjacent next year. I'm down -31%, since my cost average is a lot higher. But they're approaching levels where replacement book value is a lot higher than MC.

2026/08/18 16:38UTC看多信心分：6/10重申跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

我在这两家公司都还有持仓？我的持仓情况不应该影响你的决策。现在，变压器瓶颈正在阻碍美国的AI建设，而且无论是干式还是液式（液式更极端），交货周期都非常长。 $HPS.A 的积压订单同比增长了96.9%，再考虑到他们的市场份额…… 我不觉得他们会出什么问题。我很确定我大概在$170的时候分享过这个想法，它涨了两倍，但现在又回调到了$240，不过每个人的成本价肯定不一样。这家比利时公司主要会在2028年上半年受益于CPO/光子学产能的大规模增长。而且他们正在与IMEC合作，为作为终端用户的 $NVDA 进行MTP的工作，目前处于评估阶段，这应该会非常有趣。他们根据《芯片法案》建造的MEMS/光子学工厂也会在2028年下半年投入运营，明年，800V电压的转型应该会给他们在任何与SiC相关的业务上带来显著的营收增长。我亏了31%，因为我的平均成本要高得多。但它们正在接近一个水平，在这个水平上，重置账面价值远高于市值。