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历史观点（14 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Ur welcome with $IQE https://t.co/dn7XDgZ4FE中文 · 翻译不客气，说 $IQE 呢 https://t.co/dn7XDgZ4FE
- English · 原文@RyanU_1F42B $IQE, $XFAB, and others are just not really well known but they're both critical to western supply chains. Probably a long way to go imo中文 · 翻译@RyanU_1F42B $IQE、$XFAB 还有其他几家其实不太出名，但它们对西方供应链都很关键。 我个人觉得，估计还有很长一段路要走。
- English · 原文VPEC new price hikes on Epiwafers today. Positive bottleneck read through on companies like $IQE and Landmark (3081) in terms of pricing power/demand for epiwafers. This follows $MTSI investment into IQE to secure capacity, and shows how important some of these chokepoints are. (disclosure: have positions in IQE)中文 · 翻译VPEC 今天对 Epiwafers 进行新一轮涨价。 这对 $IQE 和 Landmark (3081) 这类公司在定价能力和 Epiwafers 需求方面是个积极的瓶颈信号。 此前 $MTSI 投资 IQE 以确保产能，这显示出这些瓶颈环节有多关键。 （披露：持有 IQE 仓位）
- English · 原文Markets should be cheering on domestic champions like $AAOI. Since it's ideal to support critical AI infra from laser fab to production in the US, rather than being a bear. Feels like everyone just outsources transceivers to Asia like Malaysia or Thailand... With $INTC, $IQE, $XFAB, $MU, $WOLF, $SOI, $SIVE, and others... If you haven't noticed by now, they're all critical to US supply chains. And every one of them are getting subsidies for securing Western supply chains. Before a major trade was to short developing US/Western equities, then hedge with subsidized foreign ones. As seen with the energy/solar firms that went bankrupt, this backfired a lot on US AI infrastructure years later with the power grid. I wanted to help change this mindset, since I believe it's very positive sum to invest in building up critical Western supply chains like photonics today. Especially if $AAOI hits their $471m/month projections after reshoring their production to America. Instead of hoping they fail and calling critical nodes in the supply chains memestocks/bubbles, maybe it's good to change mindsets a bit so we don't see a repeat of the US Solar sector years later. US/EU don't just hand out subsidies or CHIPS act grants to anyone.中文 · 翻译市场应该为 $AAOI 这样的本土冠军企业欢呼才对。 既然理想的做法是支持从激光器件制造到生产的美国本土关键 AI 基础设施，而不是当个空头。 感觉所有人都在把光模块外包给马来西亚或泰国这样的亚洲国家…… 还有 $INTC、$IQE、$XFAB、$MU、$WOLF、$SOI、$SIVE 和其他公司…… 如果你到现在还没注意到，它们全都对美国供应链至关重要。而且每一家都在拿补贴，用来保障西方供应链。 以前的主流交易是做空美国/西方成长股，然后用补贴的外国股票来对冲。 就像那些破产的能源/太阳能公司一样，几年后美国 AI 基础设施在电网这一块可吃了大亏。 我想帮忙改变这种思维，因为我相信，投资建设像今天的光电子这样的西方关键供应链，是非常正和的。 尤其是如果 $AAOI 在把生产回迁美国之后，达到了他们每月 $471 百万的收入目标。 与其盼着它们失败，把供应链里的关键节点叫做“梗股/泡沫”，也许稍微转变一下心态会比较好，这样几年后我们才不会再看到美国太阳能行业那样的重演。 美欧可不是随便什么公司都会发补贴或 CHIPS 法案资金的。
- English · 原文@aphexinvests I’d expect $SOI, $XFAB, $IQE and others in the European supply chain to play follow the leader and recover as well. Everything got sold off with photonics / power semis recently.中文 · 翻译@aphexinvests 我觉得 $SOI、$XFAB、$IQE 还有欧洲供应链里的其他几家，应该也会跟着龙头一起反弹。 最近光电和功率半导体那边，什么都被抛售了一波。
- English · 原文Not all dilution is bad and depends on what structure. If you're doing a $600m ATM to build out laser fab capacity with $AAOI for $471m / month H1 2027 (at lower MC ranges), then that's accretive. If you're diluting 15% for NASDAQ listing requirements with $SIVE, and using proceeds for M&A, that's accretive. If you're diluting with $IQE and doing private placements with $MTSI to wipe off old toxic debt, that's accretive. If you're diluting $6,000,000,000 with $IREN, and likely selling that into the open market on every rally off the backs of $SLNH / $BKKT shills where majority of those retail went to 0, then that's predatory.中文 · 翻译不是所有稀释都是坏事，关键看结构。 如果你是在做一笔 $6 亿的 ATM 融资，用来建激光器晶圆产能，在 2027 年上半年每个月 4.71 亿美元（较低市值区间）的节奏下跟 $AAOI 合作，那这就是增厚型的。 如果你是为了满足纳斯达克上市要求，用 $SIVE 稀释 15%，然后把募集资金拿去做并购，那也是增厚型的。 如果你跟 $IQE 一起稀释，通过跟 $MTSI 做私募来清掉过去的有毒债务，那也是增厚型的。 但如果你是像 $IREN 那样，一次稀释 $60 亿，然后大概率趁 $SLNH / $BKKT 的托们每次拉升时把这些股抛到公开市场上——而这些小散里多数最后都归零了——那这就是掠夺性的。
- English · 原文It’s a bit hard for major companies to go about acquiring CHIPS act funded companies like $SIVE on a whim. Or $IQE with gov ties. Lot of the venture arms just miss it sometimes too. $MTSI took a stake in IQE so that’s another path. Maybe $GFS or $JBL takes a stake in $SIVE following June’s vote.中文 · 翻译大公司想随便收购像 $SIVE 这种拿了《芯片法案》资金的公司，或者像 $IQE 这种有政府背景的，其实有点难度。 有些风投部门有时候也会错过机会。 $MTSI 入股了 IQE，所以这是另一条路。也许 $GFS 或 $JBL 会在六月的投票后入股 $SIVE。
- English · 原文Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2. Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research! Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql中文 · 翻译嗯，看到 $SIVE、$SOI 和 $XFAB 拿到欧盟芯片法案 2 的资金的话，我也不会意外。 开心的是，我那些多头持仓（除了 $IQE）也都列在蓝图上了——之前研究时没注意到这一点！ 不过，看起来正式公告推迟到下周了。https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql
- English · 原文@DisruptivePoltx Yeah they have close relationships with $IQE, $SOI and my other longs. Was familiar with a lot of the private photonics companies working with $XFAB so liked it a bit more.中文 · 翻译@DisruptivePoltx 对，他们跟 $IQE、$SOI 还有我其他的多头标的关系很密切。 之前就听说过不少跟 $XFAB 合作的私人光子学公司，所以对这个标的更有好感一些。
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
- English · 原文Eh... I had higher hopes so far with $IQE than 3x+. There's still time though. https://t.co/cK08L6yvm3中文 · 翻译呃……我对 $IQE 的期望本来比三倍还高。 不过还有时间。https://t.co/cK08L6yvm3
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
- English · 原文European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm中文 · 翻译欧洲的量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈正在疯狂爆发？ $ALRIB 上涨 8.35% $LPK 上涨 3.21% $IQE 上涨 5.68% $SOI 上涨 4.98% 顺便说一句，LPKF 的 CEO 在市场上买了自家股票，这对散户来说是个不错的信心信号。 更多 CEO 应该这样做，哪怕只是小额买入。https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm