MELI · Serenity 持续观点

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

44.8万

专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。

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电商巨头是物理AI浪潮的主要受益者，能通过机器人立即优化运营开支。

最近发言：2026/07/07 17:52 · 无信心分

8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及

历史观点（3 条，最新在上）

2026/07/07 17:52UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.
2026/07/07 17:52UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
就马斯克一个人。 - 他和 $SPCX 基本上是美国在太空领域领先的唯一原因。 - $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。他有时候对时间表的判断会有点偏差，但大方向是对的，所以我很确定他能让美国机器人在全球再次称霸。不过我个人持有 $CCXI，因为我觉得 Agility 目前通过美国供应链以及跟 $MELI/$AMZN 的合作，在量产和商业化方面有更纯粹的业务敞口。
2026/07/04 22:41UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
@fivepointscap Yep, $SE $MELI $JD $AMZN and the other e-commerce giants are the most obvious beneficiary of physical AI push that I can think of Given they can optimizing opex immediately with robotics. Names like $META are kinda less clear.
2026/07/04 22:41UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
@fivepointscap 对，$SE、$MELI、$JD、$AMZN 以及其他电商巨头，是我能想到的实体AI推进最明显的受益者。因为他们可以用机器人即刻优化运营成本。像 $META 这样的公司就有点不那么明确了。
2026/07/02 17:57UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.
2026/07/02 17:57UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
在我的看法，Agility Robotics 可以说是目前美国在商业化方面排第一的人形机器人玩家。个人排名： 1. Agility Robotics （通过 $CCXI） 2. $TSLA Optimus （万亿美元市值以上公司） 3. Figure 2025年估值 390 亿美元，现在可能更高了。特斯拉很可能

在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点

MELI 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：

$SIVE · 222 条观点 $AAOI · 124 条观点 $NVDA · 120 条观点

全部跟踪标的 →机构、内部人士与国会议员持仓动态 →

历史观点（3 条，最新在上）

2026/07/07 17:52UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.

2026/07/07 17:52UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

就马斯克一个人。 - 他和 $SPCX 基本上是美国在太空领域领先的唯一原因。 - $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。他有时候对时间表的判断会有点偏差，但大方向是对的，所以我很确定他能让美国机器人在全球再次称霸。不过我个人持有 $CCXI，因为我觉得 Agility 目前通过美国供应链以及跟 $MELI/$AMZN 的合作，在量产和商业化方面有更纯粹的业务敞口。

2026/07/04 22:41UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

@fivepointscap Yep, $SE $MELI $JD $AMZN and the other e-commerce giants are the most obvious beneficiary of physical AI push that I can think of Given they can optimizing opex immediately with robotics. Names like $META are kinda less clear.

2026/07/04 22:41UTC看多跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

@fivepointscap 对，$SE、$MELI、$JD、$AMZN 以及其他电商巨头，是我能想到的实体AI推进最明显的受益者。因为他们可以用机器人即刻优化运营成本。像 $META 这样的公司就有点不那么明确了。

2026/07/02 17:57UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo. Personal Rankings: 1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI 2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company) 3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now. With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player. Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors. NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization. No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV: Which would value Figure at $156B... While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today. So my personal preference is $CCXI.

2026/07/02 17:57UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

在我的看法，Agility Robotics 可以说是目前美国在商业化方面排第一的人形机器人玩家。个人排名： 1. Agility Robotics （通过 $CCXI） 2. $TSLA Optimus （万亿美元市值以上公司） 3. Figure 2025年估值 390 亿美元，现在可能更高了。特斯拉很可能