NVTSNavitas 半导体
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
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NVTS 整体偏多（看多 1 · 看空 0）
被提及为功率半导体行业中具有高beta、10倍潜力的股票范例。
最近发言：2026/07/31 08:25 · 信心分 5/10
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历史观点（9 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文For $XFAB ER transcript: Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability. - $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics". - "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand for both SiC and GaN... for XFAB" So those analysts/people that were confidently bearposting about $XFAB that they had "0 exposure to 800V, photonics, CPO" just turned out plainly wrong. At the time I shared my idea, industry materials showed ASE and others cited photonixfab + XFAB as an upcoming CPO player in EU. And filings showed they had exposure names like $NVTS / $POWI in general. So glad $XFAB went out to explicitly clear things up to state they were developing in CPO/800v. Okay back to the ER: - "We continue to expect photonics volume production to start in 2028". Company currently has three silicon photonics projects in development with key partners. I thought it would ramp sometime in H2 2027, but was probably early by a few months. - Several new data center design wins, eg. 3 new SiC design wins (consistent with general 2027 ramp as 800v deployment takes off). So once those ramp in 2027-2028, (markets tend to price things ahead of time), I'd expect $XFAB to be rerated based on growth opportunities. TLDR: - Current revenue numbers not as impressive. - $XFAB confirmed direct exposure to CPO and 800V shifts (biggest win for thesis) - 800V exposure opportunities for SiC (should be 2027) - Timeline is 2028 ramp for photonics volume production Happy exposure thesis to CPO/800V was confirmed from this ER. Might be a bit of waiting for revenue ramp.中文 · 翻译对于 $XFAB 的财报会议记录： 回顾一下，我关于 $XFAB 代工业务增长机会的看法，主要是基于其在800V应用中的SiC技术，以及在CPO（共封装光学）应用中的photonixfab/MTP技术。 - $XFAB：“我们在共封装光学领域正在取得进展。” - “向8
- English · 原文@JSCC2020Lee Yep, $NVTS, $POWI, $ON, $WOLF, $AOSL $XFAB, and others with power semi exposure probably get a bump from q3 pull forward. (disclosure have exposure to xfab + navitas)中文 · 翻译@JSCC2020Lee 是的，$NVTS、$POWI、$ON、$WOLF、$AOSL、$XFAB 以及其他涉及功率半导体的标的，可能都会因为 Q3 的提前拉货而有所提振。 （声明：持有 xfab + navitas 的仓位）
- English · 原文Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas. 1. $IFNNY - $115.8B 2. $ON - $46.2B 3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B 4. 6504.T - $14.1B 5. $VICR - $12.8B 6. $LFUS - $11.57B 7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B 8. $VSH - $7.86B 9. $ENPH - $7.36B 10. $NVTS - $5.77B 11. $POWI - $4.30B 12. $BDC - $4.18B 13. $EOSE - $3.86B 14. $SEDG - $3.82B 15. $AEHR - $3.1B 16. 6890.T - $2.66B 17. $WOLF - $2.16B 18. $CWR.L - $1.75B 19. $AMSC - $1.68B 20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B 21. $XFAB - $1.54B 22. $AOSL - $1.25B 23. $HYLN - $1.23B 24. $FCEL - $835M 25. $IQE.L - $780M 26. $ASYS - $276M 27. $RELL - $239M 28. 6844.T - $222M 29. 4973.T - $207M 30. $PAY.BR - $189M 31. 6616.T - $186M 32. 6882.T - $124M 33. $IPWR - $96m Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho. There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see. We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.中文 · 翻译好的，各位聊友，这是你们最喜欢的 800V 直流电相关概念股汇总： 1. $IFNNY - $1158 亿美元 2. $ON - $462 亿美元 3. Lite-On (2301) - $160.3 亿美元 4. 6504.
- English · 原文The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing: $POET: $2.4B MC -> Packages Sivers lasers -> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants > $XFAB: $1.7B MC ->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT -> Below replacement P/B value -> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028 -> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it. -> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On -> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."中文 · 翻译纳斯达克与欧盟上市的核心区别： $POET：24 亿美元市值 → 封装 Sivers 激光器 → 有一份 5000 万美元的预生产合同（含权证） > $XFAB：17 亿美元市值 → 碳化硅/氮化镓/MEMS/硅光子代工厂，受欧盟芯片法案、美国芯片法案 PMT 支持 → 市净率低于重置成本 → $NVDA、$NOK 直接评估其量产前的硅光子代工厂，2027/2028 年产能爬坡 → $XFAB 作为欧洲光子供应链规模化量产的主导代工厂，旗下有 IMEC/CEA-Leti、Ligentec、Smart Photonics、PHIX Photonics、Luceda Photonics 以及欧洲各大光子厂商 → 主要客户包括 $NVTS、$POWI、Lite-On → 美国商务部认定："美国唯一一家量产级碳化硅代工厂"
- English · 原文Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock? Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time? They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B. This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag. $XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics. The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc. So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently. Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago. I just happened to point out the connections. Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.中文 · 翻译Bro media… $XFAB 怎么就成 meme 股了？ 这次可别再在 $RPI 上犯同样的错误好吗？ 它们可是因为太关键，直接从欧盟拿到了 CHIPS ACT 资金。 而且 $NVDA / $NOK 正在评估它们的 SiPH 业务，同时它们交易价才低到大约 1.28 倍市净率。 这让我想起了 $SOI，市净率低但高增长垂直领域正脱离传统业务板块的拖累。 $XFAB 可是被明确写在下周 CHIPS ACT 2 的蓝皮书里……而那蓝皮书主要聚焦光子学。 主收入增长引擎在于功率半导体，因为 $NVDA 在推 800 伏直流电。 所以 $NVTS、$POWI、$WOLF 和大家都最近起飞了。 市场只是错过了 $XFAB，因为它们在功率半导体里是个不太知名的代工厂……但美国商务部 2 年前就指出，它们是美国唯一高产能的 SiC 代工厂。 我恰好指出了这些关联。 别因为你搞不懂，就给人家扣个 "meme 股" 的帽子，说价格脱离基本面。
- English · 原文$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players. > 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI > Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches) > The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US. > One of the critical MEMS foundries > ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag > ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est. > backstopped by Government: - EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros - US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce). With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains). So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments. EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics. ~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag). As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”. Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name. For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry. Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts) Thought it personally seemed compelling.中文 · 翻译$XFAB（光子学 + 功率半导体）在市值 $12.8 亿的情况下，是一个值得关注的多头思路，我已经建仓。 因为今天 EU CHIPS 法案 2 出炉，对欧洲光子学玩家是个催化剂。 > 800 VDC 功率半导体业务，通过 $NVDA 传导到 $NVTS + $POWI > 硅光子 / CPO 业务，$NVDA 正在评估其大规模量产潜力（光收发器/交换机） > 是美国唯一一家大规模量产 SiC 的代工厂。 > 也是关键 MEMS 代工厂之一 > 市净率约 1.29 倍，差不多是我当时做多 $SOI 时的水平。受传统业务拖累，估值偏低 > 我个人估算 2028 年前瞻市盈率约 6.5-8.5 倍 > 有政府背书： - EU CHIPS 法案，1.28 亿欧元 - 美国 CHIPS 法案，5000 万美元 PMT（商务部）。 后续可能还有更多（这本身就说明它对西方供应链至关重要）。 所以到某个时间点，算上所有补贴，它们的资本开支基本就是政府买单了。 EU CHIPS 法案 2 这周就要公布，我猜 $XFAB 大概率会被纳入，因为它们之前就在名单里，而且这个方案专门针对光子学。 ~$13 亿的市值，如果它能像 Soitec 那样来个反转（低市净率、极高增长板块、汽车传统业务拖累），我觉得很有吸引力。 至于和 $NVDA 在硅光子方面的合作，项目名称是“photonixFAB”。 市场很可能忽略了 XFab 主导的这层硅光子合作（就像我当时做多 $TSEM 时一样），只是换了个名字存在。 在功率半导体方面，XFAB 就是 SiC 的代名词，和 $NVTS 也是关联的。在 PCN-22181 文件中，$POWI 明确把 XFAB 列为它的代工厂。 考虑到它兼具功率半导体和光子学两大增长点、低市净率、有政府兜底（当然，你自己研究，我只是分享个人看法） 我个人觉得挺有吸引力的。
- English · 原文There’s one very compelling name someone called out. That I ended up taking positions in for power semi exposure. Heavily tied to $NVDA but not directly mentioned like $NVTS. Can anyone guess?中文 · 翻译有人提了个特别有意思的标的。 我后来也建仓了，拿来布局功率半导体方向。 跟 $NVDA 关系很深，但又不像 $NVTS 那样被直接点名的。 有人能猜出来吗？
- English · 原文How did my $NVTS position double already lol? That aside, I did see a very compelling long out of the list of crowdsourced recs earlier for 800 vdc. Doing more research now! https://t.co/Su65NuYjLW中文 · 翻译我的 $NVTS 持仓怎么已经翻倍了哈哈？ 不过说正经的，之前从大家推荐的那堆票里，确实看到一个挺有意思的长线机会——800 vdc。 现在正在做更多研究！https://t.co/Su65NuYjLW
- English · 原文All right chat, crowdsourcing your #1 highest conviction (10x only) stock long for the Power Semi trade. Especially given $NVDA pushing shift to 800 VDC. Stuff like $NVTS or $WOLF, but high-beta, 10x potential only. Anywhere around the world. What's your pick? https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC中文 · 翻译好了大伙儿，来集思广益一下——你心目中 Power Semi 板块里最有信心（只要 10 倍）的做多标的。 特别是考虑到 $NVDA 在推动转向 800 VDC。 像是 $NVTS 或 $WOLF 这种，但要高 Beta、只求 10 倍潜力。全球范围都行。 你选哪个？https://t.co/Y10KR6HLVC
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
NVTS 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：