SMTC · Serenity 持续观点

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

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专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。

结论速览

SMTC 整体偏多（看多 1 · 看空 0）

Semtech业绩大超预期并给出强劲指引，表明其1.6T FiberEdge光模块解决方案需求旺盛且市场份额不断增长。

最近发言：2026/08/26 00:27 · 信心分 8/10

8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及

历史观点（4 条，最新在上）

2026/08/26 00:27UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.
2026/08/26 00:27UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
好吧，我们回到 $SMTC 的剧情：“瓶颈突突突地响”：我最喜欢的一句话是：“目前，供货能力比定价更重要”。在当前的光模块市场中。 - 已经确认的（booked）光模块订单，短期内预计不会出现侵蚀（erosion），这表明他们能顺利将成本上涨转嫁出去
2026/08/25 20:51UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...
2026/08/25 20:51UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
我对 $SMTC 和今天所有其他财报都提不起兴趣了，因为发现了一家存储股，它有趣到我非研究不可…
2026/08/16 11:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.
2026/08/16 11:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。也许其他主题也可以照做。
2026/08/07 12:55UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
English · 原文
Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.
2026/08/07 12:55UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →
中文 · 翻译
$AAOI 财报的一些懒人包要点： - 他们也提到了 DSP 和 TIA 的瓶颈，这对像 $MXL、还有 $SMTC 和 $MTSI 这样的公司来说，是一个积极的行业信号。 - 至于营收增长，他们预计第四季度营收会超过 5 亿美元，这增长简直太离谱了。供参考：第二季度：$1.919 亿美元第三季度：大约 $2.55 亿 - $2.9 亿美元第四季度：$5 亿多美元到 2027 年年中：季度营收运行率大约 $14.1 亿美元这些光通信公司的营收爬坡速度总是让我印象深刻。

在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点

SMTC 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：

$SIVE · 222 条观点 $AAOI · 124 条观点 $NVDA · 120 条观点

全部跟踪标的 →机构、内部人士与国会议员持仓动态 →

历史观点（4 条，最新在上）

2026/08/26 00:27UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in exceptionally strong demand (confirmed from $AAOI earnings). Continues to deepen engagement across all the leading hyperscalers. "We are now designing to every module provider", expected 50%+ market share for 1.6T FiberEdge (TIA + driver) by years end. Very strong statement to make about being majority market share. - 1.6T FiberEdge qualifications finishing earlier than expected (good read through for your pluggable makers eg. AOI) q: "quick thoughts on how long into 2028 does that backlog extend?" a: The backlog for the remaining of this fiscal year, I would say for our target is all booked. For the next year, we probably over 70% there. Management said current capacity may not be enough for fiscal 2028, especially in the second half (great demand visibility) Q2 revenue: - $341.9M vs. ~$329M expected - adjusted EPS was $0.71 vs. $0.61 Q3 guidance was most exciting: $410M revenue vs. ~$360M revenue $1.05 EPS vs. $0.73 EPS. yeah... just look at that beautiful revenue inflection Q/Q. So gigantic beat, great read through on 1.6T ramp. I don't own Semtec, but these were amazing earnings.

2026/08/26 00:27UTC看多信心分：8/10跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

好吧，我们回到 $SMTC 的剧情：“瓶颈突突突地响”：我最喜欢的一句话是：“目前，供货能力比定价更重要”。在当前的光模块市场中。 - 已经确认的（booked）光模块订单，短期内预计不会出现侵蚀（erosion），这表明他们能顺利将成本上涨转嫁出去

2026/08/25 20:51UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...

2026/08/25 20:51UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

我对 $SMTC 和今天所有其他财报都提不起兴趣了，因为发现了一家存储股，它有趣到我非研究不可…

2026/08/16 11:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

As for names Jensen / Nvidia directly invested in: - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR for photonics... - $CCXI (Agility) for humanoids. I tend to do more complex investing, for my own thought process: -> I know CPO theme is coming next -> Nvidia secures all CW laser capacity. -> Maybe, $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC are remaining CW western players. -> $SIVE probably the highest-beta exposure. SO that was my personal long. Can probably do something similar for the other themes.

2026/08/16 11:26UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

至于 Jensen / Nvidia 直接投资的公司： - $MRVL (Celestial), $LITE, $COHR 是做光子学的... - $CCXI (Agility) 是做人形机器人的。我个人更倾向于做一些更复杂的投资，我的思路是这样的： -> 我知道 CPO 这个主题接下来要火。 -> Nvidia 拿下了所有 CW 激光的产能。 -> 也许，剩下的西方 CW 玩家是 $AAOI, $MTSI, $AVGO, $SIVE, $SMTC。 -> $SIVE 可能贝塔值最高，波动性最大。所以这就是我个人持有的多头。也许其他主题也可以照做。

2026/08/07 12:55UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

English · 原文

Some more TLDR takeaways from $AAOI ER: - They also flagged DSP and TIA bottlenecks, which is a positive industry read through for names like $MXL, then $SMTC and $MTSI. - For revenue growth, they're expecting more than $500 million revenue Q4, which is absurd growth. For reference: Q2: $191.9M Q3: ~$255M-$290M Q4: $500M+ By mid-2027: ~$1.41B quarterly revenue run-rate Always impressed by the revenue ramp from some of these optical players.

2026/08/07 12:55UTC提及跳转 X 原文 →

中文 · 翻译

$AAOI 财报的一些懒人包要点： - 他们也提到了 DSP 和 TIA 的瓶颈，这对像 $MXL、还有 $SMTC 和 $MTSI 这样的公司来说，是一个积极的行业信号。 - 至于营收增长，他们预计第四季度营收会超过 5 亿美元，这增长简直太离谱了。供参考：第二季度：$1.919 亿美元第三季度：大约 $2.55 亿 - $2.9 亿美元第四季度：$5 亿多美元到 2027 年年中：季度营收运行率大约 $14.1 亿美元这些光通信公司的营收爬坡速度总是让我印象深刻。