SNDK闪迪
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
SNDK 整体偏多（看多 11 · 看空 0）
受益于AI资本支出，推动内存元件的需求增长。
最近发言：2026/08/18 14:15 · 信心分 4/10
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历史观点（34 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文@abbysuyuyan $AAOI is actually the one stock I'm hoping goes back to $80 so I can acquire more. The demand visibility is pretty insane for laser names throughout 2027... Same can be said with neoclouds like $NBIS or memory names like $SNDK.中文 · 翻译@abbysuyuyan 说实话，$AAOI 是我唯一希望它能跌回 $80 好让我能加仓的股票。 激光股的需求可见度简直不可思议，一直到 2027 年都是这样…… 对像 $NBIS 这样的新云股，或者像 $SNDK 这样的存储股，情况也一样。
- English · 原文@RancicYaro4064 Japanese companies try to match industry rates, but they don't go out of their way to hike aggressively like 70% Q/Q... There just needs to be a $SNDK in the industry to lead the way imo, maybe Samsung can be more aggresive here中文 · 翻译@RancicYaro4064 日本公司会尽量匹配行业费率，但他们不会像（台积电那样）季环比大幅涨价70%…… 我觉得行业里需要一个 $SNDK 这样的公司来带头，也许三星可以在这方面更积极一些
- English · 原文I’m not sure how to tell people this… but the NAND/MLCCs/InP bottleneck doesnt disappear if $SNDK or Murata or $AXTI drops in price. Same group of folks who only look at price volatility on earnings release to see if it’s good or not. Probably better to look at the actual earnings report or what’s actually happening…中文 · 翻译我不知道该怎么跟大家说… 但就算 $SNDK 或者 Murata 或者 $AXTI 股价跌了，NAND闪存、MLCCs 和 InP（磷化铟）的瓶颈也不会消失。 还是那帮人，只会盯着财报发布时的股价波动，来判断业绩是好是坏。 也许最好还是看看实际的财报，或者看看真实情况到底怎样…
- English · 原文Uhh I mainly just increased MLCC positions rather than NAND exposure personally. Since MLCC prices/tightening resembles the early NAND hike cycle… if your passive component players want to tag along $SNDK path. Just saying it shows resemblance, but I’m not sure we’ll get something as extreme. Will need to wait a quarter or two.中文 · 翻译额，我个人主要是增仓了 MLCC，而不是增加 NAND 敞口。 因为 MLCC 的价格/供应紧张情况，有点像 NAND 早期涨价周期……如果你的被动元件玩家想走 $SNDK 的老路的话。 我只是说这有点像，但不确定涨幅会不会那么夸张。还得等一两个季度才能看出来。
- English · 原文Just some more demand imbalance visibility for $SNDK, $SKHY, $MU, Kioxia, and your NAND players. Phison CEO: "2027 capacity constraints will be even more severe than in 2026." "Upstream suppliers need up to 4 years from plant construction and equipment investment to actual production. With demand growing explosively and supply expansion limited, the NAND shortage is likely to last for years." Don't quite think I agree with the people claiming it's all over for memory, esp. NAND bottlenecks in 2026...中文 · 翻译再给大家看看 $SNDK、$SKHY、$MU、Kioxia 以及其他 NAND 厂商的需求不平衡情况。 群联（Phison）CEO 说：“2027 年的产能瓶颈会比 2026 年更严重。” “上游供应商从建厂、设备投资到实际投产，需要长达 4 年的时间。” “随着需求爆炸式增长，而供应扩张有限，NAND 短缺问题可能持续数年。” 我不太同意那些说存储芯片行情，尤其是 2026 年的 NAND 瓶颈会结束的说法…
- English · 原文My memory bags are decently heavy, thank you for asking. Just out of curiosity, you think 16+ long term agreements with $MU. And $SNDK 80% gross margin projections through fiscal 2030 is a cyclical commodity? (their LTAs already cover majority of 2028 output). This is quite a long cycle if you ask me...中文 · 翻译我的内存股仓位挺重的，谢谢您问了。 纯属好奇，你觉得 $MU 有超过 16 份长期协议，以及 $SNDK 的毛利率预测到 2030 财年能达到 80%（他们的长期协议已经覆盖了 2028 年大部分产量），这还算周期性商品吗？ 要我说，这周期可真够长的了…
- English · 原文@optionsreaper His ideas would have played out anyway with $SNDK or $BE even without anyone from retail knowing he existed. Retail wouldn't have changed a thing with NAND shortages or hyperscaler demand for Bloom. Downplaying that to just retail copying him is also terrible.中文 · 翻译@optionsreaper 他的那些想法，在 $SNDK 或者 $BE 上反正也会实现，就算散户里没人知道他这个人也一样。 对于 NAND 短缺，或者超大规模云服务商对 Bloom 的需求，散户也改变不了什么。 把这一切轻描淡写地说成只是散户在模仿他，这也太糟糕了。
- English · 原文The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious. Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure". After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness. It's almost like everyone is cheering for the downfall of others. Yes, July's crash exposed problems with SA’s leverage, liquidity management, and hedging. But his current YTD performance remains +80%, ranking among the best performing hedge funds. And he still has public equities after all this (just removed leverage). I think he's doing something unique while being successful at it. And this draws the envy of others.中文 · 翻译媒体和 X 上对 Leopold 的报道和反应真的太离谱了。 把他的成功投资，就是从 $SNDK 到 $BE 的多年布局，居然说成是“崩盘”或者“失败”。 七月那次突然暴跌后，还人身攻击他，看着真让人觉得可悲。 好像所有人都在为别人的失败欢呼。 没错，七月的暴跌确实暴露了 SA 在杠杆、流动性管理和对冲方面的问题。 但他目前的年初至今业绩仍然是 +80%，位居表现最佳的对冲基金之列。而且就算经历这一切，他手里还有公开交易的股票（只是去掉了杠杆）。 我觉得他在做一些很独特的事情，而且还很成功。这就会招来别人的嫉妒。
- English · 原文Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve seen.中文 · 翻译Citadel 刚刚真的清盘了 Situational Awareness… 然后第二天就把整个大盘拉起来了？ $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% 还有好多其他股票。这绝对是我见过最疯狂的清盘之一。
- English · 原文There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up 439% through June YTD. Regarding the drawdown, Aschenbrenner acknowledged that the fund had "not been immune" to the market turmoil, particularly in Asia. FT separately reported that leverage amplified both its extraordinary gains and recent losses. He described the sell-off as potentially the best buying opportunity since early 2025 I'd agree with him and hope he succeeds with the raise. Since a lot of the current selloff looks like it overshot its mark through forced deleveraging.中文 · 翻译很多人对Leopold募资这事儿说了很多蠢话。毕竟像$BE、$SNDK、$SHAZ这些票，还有其他一些，七月份都经历了一波大幅回撤。 大家记住……这个金融圈的人可是： 1. 身高6尺5寸 2. 蓝眼睛 3. 搞对冲基金的 可能比你长得帅，而且截至六月底，今年以来收益率还涨了439%。 关于这次回撤，Aschenbrenner承认，基金“未能幸免”于市场动荡，尤其是在亚洲市场。FT（金融时报）另有报道说，杠杆既放大了他惊人的收益，也放大了最近的损失。 他把这次抛售潮描述为，可能是自2025年初以来最好的买入机会。 我同意他的看法，也希望他募资成功。 因为目前很多抛售看起来是强制去杠杆造成的，已经跌过头了。
- English · 原文@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.中文 · 翻译@michaelsikand DRAM 下季度涨价 20% 以上，$SNDK 与 $META 签订了长期供货协议，$MU 也有 16+ 份长期协议。 市场：接着就开始抛售内存股。 800G 光模块的出货预期大幅上调？激光器件的订单已经排到 2029 年初，完全售罄了？ 市场：抛售光子学和激光公司的股票。
- English · 原文$AEHR back up +36.4% today off earnings! 2027 guide: $130-$150m (160-200% growth) from 2026 revenue. Sees opportunity to guide higher (assumes no memory revenue or little to none from newly benchmarked AI customer). Q4 bookings: $60.7M, effective backlog is $100.6M. - Lead AI processor wafer-level burn-in customer is significantly ramping their products. - Engaged with additional AI processor customers who are evaluating wafer-level burn-in. - Benchmark customer, which was a “major supplier of AI accelerators, CPUs and network processors” “exceeded their expectations. From management: The potential revenue opportunity from one of these devices is "significant to Aehr". So another benchmark win for potential HVM in the future. - Wafer level burn-in benchmark with a "global leader in NAND flash completed". Now evaluating a development agreement for HBM/NAND Seems like $SNDK since there was HBF related discussions from last quarter I think. - "Our package level burn-in business for AI processors also gained momentum over the year … from our lead hyperscale customer for Sonoma systems" - Silicon photonics customer already ramping, newer networking customers has forecast additional systems Basically the amount of global semi companies that map to $AEHR is pretty ridiculous across silicon photonics, memory, AI processors, and others. I don’t quite think that $130-$150m guidance is representative of actualized revenue for 2027 if these hyperscalers/semi companies convert to HVM. Typically with these types of qualification into HVM players, markets don’t really judge it by current quarter, but what’s to come. And it looks very positive so far in terms of reactions... $116 -> $60 -> $94 all in the span of a month is pretty insane volatility tho, so good to know what you're holding.中文 · 翻译$AEHR 今天因财报又涨了36.4%！ 2027年指引：营收1.3亿-1.5亿美元（较2026年增长160%-200%）。认为有机会上调指引（假设没有存储业务收入，或新基准测试的AI客户贡献的收入很少甚至没有）。
- English · 原文Nothing like an internal $META memo getting published. Showing AI ramping as usual: - LTAs signed with Samsung and $SNDK for memory - LTAs signed with Sumitomo Electric for fiber optics - Expected to deploy 7GW compute infra this year, and doubling in 2027. - as much as $145B capex spend this year “It plans to launch a chip about every six months through 2027”中文 · 翻译没有什么能比 $META 内部备忘录被公开发布更刺激的了。 从中可以看到 AI 业务一如既往地在加速： - 与三星和 $SNDK 签订了长期存储器供货协议 (LTA) - 与住友电工签订了长期光纤供货协议 (LTA) - 预计今年部署 7GW 计算基础设施，到 2027 年翻一番 - 今年资本支出高达 1450 亿美元 “它计划在 2027 年之前，每六个月推出一款芯片”
- English · 原文Just putting it out there: If everything crashes together from $NBIS, $MRVL, $INTC, $SNDK, $AMD, $SIVE, $MU, $LITE, and others... Which are all down -4% to -10%+ today so far. Probably doesn't have anything to do with individual fundamentals. Indiscriminate selloffs from things like cascading margin liquidations, usually provide compelling opportunities if the underlying improves.中文 · 翻译就随便说一下我的看法： 如果 $NBIS、$MRVL、$INTC、$SNDK、$AMD、$SIVE、$MU、$LITE 这些股票，还有其他一些，都跟着一起崩盘…… 这些今天目前为止跌幅都在 -4% 到 -10% 以上。 那这可能就和个股基本面没什么关系了。 像瀑布式保证金清算这类原因导致的无差别抛售，如果标的公司基本面在改善的话，通常会带来非常不错的机会。
- English · 原文Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations. Something to note: Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters. But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation. I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names... I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.中文 · 翻译汇总一下存储芯片的最新情况： - $MU 牵头在日本广岛投资 1.5 万亿日元，约合 93 亿美元。（这对 Disco、Advantest、Resonac、Towa 来说是利好，因为资本支出是本地化的。） - 摩根士丹利指出，NAND 供应短缺将持续
- English · 原文Always a fun time seeing semi markets crash from Bloomberg report framing once again… UBS analyst on $META report: “this is not new news”. Regardless: $AEHR down -18.3% $AAOI down -17.13% $SIVEF down -15.4% $SNDK down -14.8% $TER down -13.8% $GLW down -11.4% $MRVL down -11.2% $LITE down -10.2% $NBIS down -7.8% Getting PTSD from Bloombert’s previous misleading report on AMD/Nvidia global export controls earlier this year that crashed semi stocks. FYI: Meta doesn’t randomly buy $48B+ worth of neocoud contracts if they overbuilt capacity and can cut capex… Markets are stupid sometimes.中文 · 翻译每次看到半导体市场因为彭博社的报道措辞再次暴跌，都觉得挺有意思的… 瑞银分析师评论 $META 财报说：“这不是什么新消息。” 但不管怎么说： $AEHR 下跌 -18.3% $AAOI 下跌 -17.13% $SIVEF 下跌 -15.4% $SNDK 下跌 -14.8% $TER 下跌 -13.8% $GLW 下跌 -11.4% $MRVL 下跌 -11.2% $LITE 下跌 -10.2% $NBIS 下跌 -7.8% 看到这个，我都想起彭博社今年早些时候那篇关于 AMD/Nvidia 全球出口管制的误导性报道，当时也搞得半导体股票大跌，简直要犯 PTSD 了。 顺便提一下：如果 Meta 真有过剩产能并且能削减资本支出，他们就不会随便买下价值超过 480 亿美元的 Neocoud 合同了… 市场有时候就是这么傻。
- English · 原文After $AXTI went from $13 to $140, somewhere along the way up they had a massive float expansion along with dilution. Which it got approved, so as I mentioned before, I wasn't as comfortable talking about it if there's excessive dilution on retail investors. But I do think it's undervalued if they weaponize price hikes like $SNDK.中文 · 翻译$AXTI 股价从 $13 涨到 $140 之后，在上涨过程中他们进行了一次大规模的流通股扩容，也伴随着稀释。 这个扩容方案通过了，所以就像我之前提到的，如果对散户投资者稀释过大的话，我就不太舒服去谈论它。 但我确实觉得如果他们像 $SNDK 那样把涨价作为武器的话，那它就被低估了。
- English · 原文@gurukid5995 Markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. Memory from $SNDK to $MU was the market's main focus this month, while optical names like $AAOI corrected. I think we'll see a rotation back into photonics eventually, it's personally my highest concentration theme.中文 · 翻译@gurukid5995 市场倾向于从一个瓶颈轮动到另一个瓶颈。 本月市场主要关注的是存储板块，从 $SNDK 到 $MU，与此同时像 $AAOI 这样的光学股则出现了回调。 我觉得我们最终会看到资金重新轮动回光子学板块，这对我个人来说是集中度最高的主题。
- English · 原文@firstadopter Yep, I lost a sht ton recently and makes me sad if others did too. Always hard to build a port full of $SNDK type longs that go up despite macro climates.中文 · 翻译@firstadopter 是的，我最近亏了一大笔，看到别人也亏让我挺难过的。 建立一个全由 $SNDK 这类多头组成的组合，在宏观环境不佳时还能逆势上涨，总是很难的。
- English · 原文@AliTava2020 $DRAM is one of the more positive ETFs I have a view on since it's exposure to SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU, and $SNDK. Which is everything people kinda want for memory exposure.中文 · 翻译@AliTava2020 $DRAM 是我比较看好的 ETF 之一，因为它投的是 SK Hynix、Samsung、$MU 和 $SNDK。 这基本上就是大家想要的那种存储类敞口。
- English · 原文Curious if anyone's portfolio is green after today's fun day. $KORU: -32.06% $SOXL: -22.98% $IQE: -13.58% $DRAM: -12.6% $AXTI: -12.57% $FLNC: -12.5% $AAOI: -11.2% $SIVE: -11.7% $TSEM: -10.24% $SNDK: -12.5% $MU: -11.8% Sk Hynix: -12.35% Samsung: -9.6% $MRVL: -8.3% $LITE: -7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM: -6.1% $AMD: -6.04% Feels like anything high-beta or semis had a steep drop.中文 · 翻译好奇今天这么嗨的日子，有谁的投资组合还是红的吗？ $KORU：-32.06% $SOXL：-22.98% $IQE：-13.58% $DRAM：-12.6% $AXTI：-12.57% $FLNC：-12.5% $AAOI：-11.2% $SIVE：-11.7% $TSEM：-10.24% $SNDK：-12.5% $MU：-11.8% SK 海力士：-12.35% 三星：-9.6% $MRVL：-8.3% $LITE：-7.6% $SOI -7.15% $TSM：-6.1% $AMD：-6.04% 感觉只要是高贝塔或者半导体相关的，都跌得很惨。
- English · 原文Nittobo (3110) is one of the most frustrating Japanese companies I've seen. They hold an monopoly in glass fiber cloth, like ~90%+ market share. But refuse to price hike T-Glass ASP, beyond something small like 20-30%. Could easy triple company valuations if they followed $SNDK + NAND but just due to Japanese culture, they won't do it.中文 · 翻译Nittobo (3110) 是我见过最让人无语的日本公司之一。他们在玻璃纤维布领域处于垄断地位，市场份额大概有 90% 以上。 但就是不愿意把 T-Glass 的平均售价提上去，最多也就涨个 20-30% 这种小幅度。 要是他们学学 $SNDK 和 NAND 那套，公司估值轻松翻三倍都不止，但就因为日本企业文化，他们死活不干。
- English · 原文Apparently gym bros are the new hyperscalers. They’ve created a new bottleneck with whey protein? Now there’s $SNDK style price hikes. Maybe creatine is next with shortages. https://t.co/YY5waMXzKH中文 · 翻译看来健身狂人们成了新的超大规模玩家。 他们靠着乳清蛋白创造了一个新瓶颈？ 现在都开始搞 $SNDK 那种涨价法了。 说不定下一个紧缺的就是肌酸了。 https://t.co/YY5waMXzKH
- English · 原文@0xPepeTerelu Yeah, pretty sure Citron shorted $SNDK around $600 and they're probably underwater by a ton now.中文 · 翻译@0xPepeTerelu 嗯，相当肯定 Citron 在 $600 左右做空了 $SNDK，现在很可能已经亏了一大截了。
- English · 原文I did say $MU looked like the next $NVDA. Now we're at a $1.23T MC. Started talking more about Samsung Electronics/Sk Hynix back in 2025. Put more concentration into the memory theme like $SNDK and others, Jan of this year. And I'm glad my prediction with Micron + memory is playing out well! Hope people had fun with $EWY longs too, those are up a lot.中文 · 翻译我早就说过 $MU 看起来就是下一个 $NVDA。现在市值都到 1.23 万亿了。 从 2025 年那会儿就开始更多讨论三星电子 / SK 海力士了。 今年 1 月就更集中布局存储这个方向，比如 $SNDK 和其他几只。 我很开心美光 + 存储这条线的预测，行情正在应验！ 希望 $EWY 的多头仓位，大家也赚得开心，涨了很多。
- English · 原文@JaaidevV I personally like $SIVE, usually the same names keep on compounding like $SNDK if they’re important to AI? I’m not selling a share, since it looks like we’re only at the start of the next supercycle.中文 · 翻译@JaaidevV 我个人看好 $SIVE，通常那些名字会像 $SNDK 一样持续复利增长，如果它们对 AI 很重要的话？ 我一股都不会卖，因为我们看起来才刚进入下一个超级周期的起点。
- English · 原文All the $SNDK short sellers went extinct. Can’t believe it’s almost $2000 now? That aside feels like everyone is just waiting for the $SPCX IPO in a few hours. https://t.co/EahzuEy1KE中文 · 翻译所有做空 $SNDK 的人都绝迹了。 真不敢相信现在都快 $2000 了？ 话说回来，感觉所有人都在等几个小时后 $SPCX 的 IPO。https://t.co/EahzuEy1KE
- English · 原文Just in case you’re wondering why indexes + individual names like $SNDK to $MRVL to $LITE are green now. Trump just cancelled attacks on Iran. This market is so volatile… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL中文 · 翻译以防你在纳闷，为什么指数和 $SNDK、$MRVL、$LITE 这些个股现在都是涨的。 川普刚刚取消了针对伊朗的攻击。 这个市场实在波动太大…… https://t.co/mYzzYeU5rL
- English · 原文Just in case you weren’t aware… The broader index is down a significant -3-4%. Stocks don’t move in a straight lineup unless you’re $SNDK. And are largely affected by wider selloffs. Curious what my follower portfolios look like you’re green this week + long only? https://t.co/XRlXdeHbm1中文 · 翻译以防你不知道…… 大盘已经跌了挺猛的，-3%到-4%左右。 除非你手里是 $SNDK，不然股价不会一直往上冲。 更多时候是被整体抛售带下去的。 好奇我关注的人这周的仓位怎么样——你们这周是绿的+只做多吗？ https://t.co/XRlXdeHbm1
- English · 原文$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year. Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances. Here’s the reason why: 1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings. Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts. -> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck -> Win Semi = bottleneck $SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck? Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well). Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing. Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck. $SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers) 2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO. $NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors) $AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well. However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence) Are all likely designed around $SIVE. Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently) If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers. Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source. $SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1): If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO… That makes them a chokepoint. Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference). So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note) This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years. All of this should play out next year. And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.中文 · 翻译$SIVE 看起来既是明年 CPO 的关卡，又是它的瓶颈。 总能看到非技术人员发布的信息，完全忽略了各种细节。 下面说说原因： 1. CW 激光器受到 $LITE 财报所显示的瓶颈制约。 激光晶圆厂的大量产能都被分配给了 EML，很可能来自 $NVDA 之前的合同。 → 住友电工/古河电气 = 瓶颈 → Win Semi = 瓶颈 $SIVE 做的是 Fab-lite 模式，那它算不算瓶颈？ 是的，$SIVE 就卡在这个激光瓶颈里，因为他们很早就掌控了从 Win Semi 和其他晶圆厂流出的 CW 激光器产能分配权（CEO 说过他们也在与其他厂商合作，增加更多产能）。 完美的例子是 Kioxia/Sandisk。$SNDK 控制着 NAND 的产出，所以他们就是瓶颈，因为他们控制着最终定价。 Ayar、Jabil、其他可插拔模块厂商，加上 Nvidia NVLink CPO 生态，需求超过了供给……最终激光器供应掌握在 $SIVE 手里，这就让 Sivers 成了瓶颈。 $SIVE 很可能也是 Jabil、Gen-1 Ayar、$MRVL Celestial，以及其他超大规模 ASIC/商用 CPO 路线的主供或唯一来源。所以绕不开它（单通道 CW 激光器没法热替换掉 Sivers）。 2. $SIVE 是 CPO 的关卡。 $NVDA 用的是 $COHR、$LITE（后者很可能从日本竞争对手那里外购 CW 产能）。 $AVGO 很可能也是垂直整合的。 然而：它周围整个生态，从 ASIC 项目（Marvell、AlChip 等）到商用项目（Ayar、Lightmatter、Lightelligence），很可能都是围绕 $SIVE 设计的。 比如 Ayar，2022 年可能尝试过从 $MTSI / $LITE 做多源采购，但它们的激光器在阵列规格上可能达不到 Sivers 的水平（最近他们从供应链网站上去掉了 Lumentum / Macom）。 如果至少在初期几代产品中没有替代方案（显然他们正在努力做多源采购），那就让 $SIVE 成了激光器领域一个结构性的、必须通过的关卡。 即使看看 $JBL 设计的 1.6T LRO，他们也通过围绕 $SIVE（可能是唯一来源）的性能，建立了一道“巨大的护城河”。 $SIVE 也是 $GFS 的代工厂级参考激光器设计，而你的超大规模客户（比如 $AMD，Gen1 很可能用的是 Sivers + 也许还有 Ayar）都在用 $GFS： 如果每一个尚未实现垂直整合的主要玩家（Nvidia/Broadcom）都在 CPO 中使用 Sivers…… 那他们就构成了一个关卡。 看看整个 $NVDA NVLink CPO 生态的合作伙伴：每一个都很可能在使用 Sivers。而且它们全都用 $GFS（Sivers 在这里是默认参考设计）。 所以当 CPO 在 2027 年下半年真正起量时，$SIVE 既是关卡又是瓶颈，而这次 CPO 是有史以来最大的架构变革之一（根据高盛研究报告，TAM 从接近 $0 到未来 1 年半内变成 $81B 或 $91B）。 这就是为什么我说 $SIVE 看起来像未来的 $75B 体量的 $LITE，会在未来几年内实现。 这一切都将在明年上演。 而它现在的市值，还不到一家拿着 $50M 采购协议、把 Sivers 的激光器买回来重新包装的公司。
- English · 原文I did say $AAOI was my favorite US optical long... +20.1% today. If you want the next $SNDK, you're looking at it. I think H1 entering H2 2027 will likely be that massive inflection point for photonics players. We're just a tad early entering H2 2026 while everyone is building up capacity. Just a general rule of thumb in general if your name isnt space or quantum, markets are forward looking round 8 months. That revenue ramp inflection point is coming, more of a matter of when, waiting for it, and embracing volatility in the meantime.中文 · 翻译我说过 $AAOI 是我最看好的美国光通信多头…… 今天涨了 +20.1%。 如果你想找下一个 $SNDK，眼前就是。 我认为 2027 年上半年进入下半年，对光子学玩家来说，很可能是那个巨大的拐点。 我们只是稍微早了一点，现在刚进 2026 年下半年，大家都在扩产能。 一个通用规律：如果你的股票不是太空或量子相关的，市场大约会提前 8 个月去定价。 那个营收增长拐点迟早会来，问题只是什么时候来，我们等着就是了，同时也要接受期间的波动。
- English · 原文I actually got every single one of these predictions right > InP substrate bottleneck > laser bottleneck, and markets rewarding $AAOI with laser fabs for it. But it did take markets 6 months to realize how important $AXTI was. As well as for the bottleneck to start showing up in the epiwafer companies like landmark. All the modeling with AXT was with former contracts made, not after $SNDK style ASP hikes.中文 · 翻译说实话这些预测我全都中了 > InP 衬底瓶颈 > 激光器瓶颈，市场因为这一点奖励了拥有激光器 fab 的 $AAOI。 不过市场确实花了 6 个月才意识到 $AXTI 有多重要。还有瓶颈开始在 landmark 这类外延片公司显现出来。 所有对 AXT 建的模型都是用之前签的合同算的，而不是 $SNDK 那种涨价模式之后的数据。
- English · 原文$RPI, close to ~3x returns. Off the media branded "Meme Stock". I think after retail saw institutions bear post my thesis posts. Then ended up paper handing $AXTI, then $RPI, then $IQE, then $EWY, then $SNDK, then $AAOI, then $SOI. And them watch them all go up 3x-15x+ after institutions bought up the float. Retail finally learned not to trust them with anymore with names like $SIVE?中文 · 翻译$RPI，接近约3倍涨幅。 脱离媒体贴的“Meme股”标签。 我觉得，在散户看到机构做空我发的分析帖子之后。 结果他们先后纸手扔掉了 $AXTI，然后 $RPI，再 $SNDK，然后 $AAOI，接着 $SOI。 然后眼睁睁看着这些票全部涨了3倍到15倍以上，因为机构把流通盘都买光了。 散户终于学会了：再也不信他们的鬼话，比如 $SIVE 这种名字？
- English · 原文AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections. You're not bullish enough. And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom: -> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics. -> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics. -> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO. -> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics. All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them. There's many more in other industries as well. -> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS. -> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK. And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion. We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.中文 · 翻译根据 $NVDA 黄仁勋的预测，到 2030 年，AI 资本支出预计将达到“每年 3 到 4 万亿美元”。 你还是不够乐观。 保持敞口、掌握 AI 王国的钥匙或许是个好主意： -> $AXTI 通过光子学掌控材料建设。 -> $SOI 通过硅光子学掌控 AI 建设。 -> $SIVE 掌控 CPO 的激光瓶颈环节。 -> $IQE 掌控西方光子学外延片供应链。 这些公司最初都很小，但预计数万亿美元的资本支出会逐渐流向它们。 其他行业还有更多例子。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $NBIS 这样的 Neocloud。 -> AI 资本支出流向像 $MU 和 $SNDK 这样的存储器。 而且，很多过去 20 年里被视为“大宗商品”材料或“科研项目”的东西，突然间迎来了指数级的 TAM 扩张。 我们正在见证人工智能+物理 AI 带来的下一次工业革命。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
SNDK 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：