SPCX
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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
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SPCX 观点中性（看多 3 · 看空 3）
SPCX在太空运输领域表现出色，强力带动美国发射行业发展。
最近发言：2026/10/22 12:05 · 信心分 8/10
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历史观点（28 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文I don't own $ASTS and not advice, but if you're capitulating just because a stock price went down.. There's little investment thesis or conviction in the first place. People always have multi-year ideas like $RKLB becoming the next $SPCX or AST becoming the next Starlink competitor. Kinda reminiscent of retail favorite names like $HOOD back in 2024, or $NBIS later in 2025... But there's always capitulation periods along the way like the time hedge funds shorted Nebius to $70 in Dec/Jan, after calling it the Neocloud winter. Or the wave of negative analyst DGs on Robinhood on the drop back to $17. Or even macro scares like April 2025. So lot of retail investors never gave their original longs time to play out. Fast forward, a lot of these popular retail names do end up cooking... so kinda sad seeing how quickly sentiment turns.中文 · 翻译我没持有 $ASTS，也不是投资建议，但如果你只是因为股价下跌就投降割肉... 那你当初就没什么投资逻辑或信念可言。 大家总是有很多放眼未来几年的想法，比如 $RKLB 会成为下一个 $SPCX，或者 AST 会成为 Starlink 的下一个竞争对手。 有点像散户追捧的那些热门股，比如 2024 年的 $HOOD，或者 2025 年后来的 $NBIS... 但一路上总会有一些投降割肉期，比如对冲基金在去年 12 月/1 月把 Nebius 做空到 $70 的时候，当时还管它叫“新云寒冬”。 或者 Robinhood 跌回 $17 时，分析师们一大波负面下调评级。 甚至是 2025 年 4 月那样的宏观恐慌。 所以很多散户投资者从来没给他们最初看好的多头留足时间去发展。 快进到后来，很多这些受散户欢迎的股票最后都涨得不错... 所以看到市场情绪转变得这么快，还挺让人难过的。
- English · 原文Divergence between fundamental demand and valuations are now at extreme levels. You're seeing accelerating procurement from $SMCI to $SPCX vs. collapsing equity prices on $AAOI to colo players. After ERs, I think Oct 2026 will be seen as a DeepSeek / April tariff opportunity中文 · 翻译基本面需求和估值之间的分歧现在已经非常极端了。 你看到从 $SMCI 到 $SPCX 的采购正在加速，而 $AAOI 到托管数据中心（colo players）的股价却在暴跌。 财报季后，我觉得 2026 年 10 月会被看作是一个 DeepSeek / 四月关税的机会。
- English · 原文Yeah not sure how anyone thinks it's over on AI semis like $NVDA GPUs, memory, to photonics, after $SPCX earnings. - Previous Q4 capex outlook ~$18.4B... Now $35–40 billion Q4 capex guidance, basically doubling previous outlook "Q3 and Q4 capex should be similar to Q2's $18.37B" from CFO in August. -Elon: "If everything goes right, we’ll have 20 gigawatts of incremental power next year" "High confidence of 10 GW next year, and 20 is difficult but not impossible - "I’m being as precise as possible about this. It is absolutely insane to be deploying and providing the power and all of the electrical equipment, the cooling, the batteries, the networking, and everything else that’s needed to turn on 220,000 GB300s a month" You're gonna need a lot of HBM, power, networking/optical components to make all of this happen. - Elon projects SpaceX could exit 2027 with an ARR of "$500 billion and $1 trillion by the end of 2027 When you see $SPCX double capex outlook next quarter, target another 10GW deployment by next year, and all the procurement needed to turn on 220,000 GB300's a month... Hard not to be bullish on AI semis.中文 · 翻译说实话，我真不明白在 $SPCX 财报出来后，怎么会有人觉得人工智能半导体，像 $NVDA 的 GPU、内存、光电子这些，已经到头了。 - 之前第四季度的资本支出展望大概是 184 亿美元……现在第四季度的资本支出指引是 350-400 亿美元，基本上是之前展望的两倍。 "三季度和四季度的资本支出应该会和二季度的 183.7 亿美元差不多"——这是 CFO 在八月份说的
- English · 原文I've had better days, having constant headaches which is a bit rough. I did have some fun channel checks though recently. Some guy I met by the bathroom yesterday claimed to be $SPCX Cursor CEO. I'm not good with faces so idk if he was lying or not. Also had some discussions about beamformer technology with an industry executive, it's apparently more important than I gave it credit for.中文 · 翻译我最近日子不太好过，老是头疼，有点难受。不过我最近倒是做了一些挺有意思的渠道调研。 昨天我在洗手间旁边碰到一个人，他自称是 $SPCX Cursor 的 CEO。我不太记人脸，所以不知道他说的是不是真的。 我还和一个行业高管聊了聊波束赋形技术，看来这玩意儿比我原先想的还要重要。
- English · 原文Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro. - $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations) - $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027. - $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training + inference from internal investor documents (WSJ). - Even the Pentagon (US gov) is looking to fund the AI buildout, with $5B potentially into Fluidstack. What sectors do I think capex flows hit the hardest? Photonics + Memory. Trendforce for example est. DRAM and NAND to be 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027. So when all that memory procurement spend hits the balance sheets of $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, $SKHY with 70-80%+ margins. I don't think these companies care about short term macro scares. And when your leading memory companies are all allocating capacity for DDR5/HBM or high end memory, with little visibility on legacy memory supply coming online. What does that say about the durability of ESMT/Etron/Winbond and others? And when your optical content/GPU goes up for rubin ultra + $META / $GOOGL TPU v9, etc. Alongside TAM eg. $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 optical module forecasts. Who benefits from supplying all that lasers during a shortage other than $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR? I think the overwhelming fundamentals + growth of some of the AI sector companies will outperform macro.中文 · 翻译没错，尽管宏观环境不确定，我个人非常看好AI投资（特别是光子学/存储器）。 - $NVDA预测超大规模数据中心资本支出将达到1.3万亿美元（比美银分析师的预期高出1000多亿美元） - $SPCX 方面，富国银行预测到2027年约为
- English · 原文I’m not sure how OpenAI was likely holding off their IPO to 2027. Because they had concerns about a $1T valuation 3 months ago. Then Anthropic investors go and say **** it, lets one-up $SPCX and IPO at $2T next month? https://t.co/wkMuzkCrzd中文 · 翻译我有点不明白 OpenAI 怎么可能把 IPO 推迟到 2027 年。 因为他们三个月前还担心自己市值达到 1 万亿美元。 然后 Anthropic 的投资者就跑出来说，管他的，我们下个月直接在 $SPCX 基础上再加码，以 2 万亿美元估值 IPO？https://t.co/wkMuzkCrzd
- English · 原文It's been fun to read these US Gov fact sheets (few a week) recently. Earlier this week was "Golden Age of Space Transportation", with $SPCX hard carrying the launch sector like Faker. And $RKLB + other rocket companies as beneficiaries of the 1K launch/reentry goal by 2030. This month we also had: - Drone component tariffs - American Mining / Critical Mineral deals - Polysilicon supply chains tariffs and a lot more... So helpful to see what sectors US policy is focusing on.中文 · 翻译最近读这些美国政府的概况介绍（每周几份），挺有意思的。 这周早些时候读到的是“太空运输的黄金时代”，$SPCX 像 Faker 一样一力扛起了发射领域。 还有 $RKLB 和其他火箭公司，作为到2030年实现1000次发射/再入目标的受益者。 这个月我们还有： - 无人机零部件关税 - 美国采矿业 / 关键矿产协议 - 多晶硅供应链关税 还有更多... 看到美国政策重点关注哪些领域，真是太有帮助了。
- English · 原文After seeing how the robotics and space sectors reacted to Unitree and $SPCX IPOs I’m not quite sure I want Anthropic to go public… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb中文 · 翻译看了 Unitree 和 $SPCX 的 IPO 后，机器人和太空板块的反应， 我有点不确定是不是还想让 Anthropic 上市了…… https://t.co/hY6tM1r4Qb
- English · 原文In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation. If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs. Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT. Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign. On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top. Enterprise is probably having a better time though. Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors. Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month. Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.中文 · 翻译说起 IPO 的消息… Vantage Data Centers 正在探讨上市，估值可能高达惊人的 1000 亿美元。 如果你不熟悉这家公司的话，$ORCL 是 Stargate 项目（OpenAI 的终端用户）的主力租户，而 Vantage 负责开发和运营超大规模数据中心。 Anthropic 的 IPO 也在预期之中，投资者预计其
- English · 原文$GOOGL reported earnings today: EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expected Google Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65% expected ($22.2-$22.6B) - this is a very large beat and most material part so far. Cloud Operating Income: ~$8.81B, implying 35.6% margin vs. 32.9% Q1. Capex: $44.92B vs ~$44.15B (basically in line). So initial read through is Google Cloud accelerating growth with expanding margins is genuinely bullish for AI demand. Their former $180-$190B capex guidance is already extremely large, and as long as we get around these numbers in the earnings call + forward projections... Should be good to go for $LITE and the other optics/networking trade. (eg. last earnings, they said DC and networking would be ~40% of capex spend). Hyperscaler earnings transcripts are probably the most important thing to pay attention to with the AI capex trade. And that should be in 3 minutes.中文 · 翻译$GOOGL 今天公布了财报： 每股收益 (EPS)：实际 $9.11，预期 $2.91——散户对EPS大超预期的反应，其实有点像会计账面操作的噪音，因为 $SPCX、Anthropic 和其他公司很可能是主要的贡献者。 营收：实际 $1197 亿美元，预期 $1169.8 亿美元。 Google Cloud 营收：$247.
- English · 原文$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT中文 · 翻译$META 据说正在谈判，想把算力租给 Anthropic，这笔交易估计值 100 亿美元。 看来他们是看到 $SPCX 那笔 450 亿美元的算力租赁有多赚钱了。 不过这正好也验证了像 $NBIS、$IREN 还有其他这类新云业务模式的价值，毕竟连超大规模云服务商都在“抄作业”了。 来源：纽约时报 https://t.co/3Mu3UXQtFT
- English · 原文$NBIS signs $1B+ compute agreement with Reflection AI, for GB300 access through 2029. Reflection also signed a multi-billion dollar agreement with $SPCX earlier. Interesting to say the least, seeing Nebius drop -5% off the news today. Also... counterparty to get this done kinda reminds me of OpenAI, where they might not have the funds to actually execute on these LTAs yet compared to $META or $MSFT. But generally positive long term developments, customer diversification was one of the core strengths of Nebius.中文 · 翻译$NBIS 和 Reflection AI 签署了一份10亿多美元的算力协议，获得到2029年的GB300算力。 Reflection 之前也和 $SPCX 签署了一份数十亿美元的协议。 至少可以说很有意思的是，今天 Nebius 竟然因为这消息跌了5%。 另外…这个交易对手方能达成这笔交易，有点让我想起 OpenAI，就是他们可能还没像 $META 或 $MSFT 那样，有足够的资金来真正执行这些长期协议。 但从长期来看，这总体上是积极的进展，毕竟客户多元化一直是 Nebius 的核心优势之一。
- English · 原文Literally just Elon. - The guy + $SPCX is basically the only reason why US is in the lead with Space. - $TSLA led EV commercialization in US He's sometimes off with timeframes, but right directionally, so pretty sure he can make US robotics #1 again. I personally own $CCXI though since I think Agility currently has more pure play exposure for mass production/commercialization through US supply chains + $MELI/ $AMZN.中文 · 翻译就马斯克一个人。 - 他和 $SPCX 基本上是美国在太空领域领先的唯一原因。 - $TSLA 引领了美国电动汽车的商业化。 他有时候对时间表的判断会有点偏差，但大方向是对的，所以我很确定他能让美国机器人在全球再次称霸。 不过我个人持有 $CCXI，因为我觉得 Agility 目前通过美国供应链以及跟 $MELI/$AMZN 的合作，在量产和商业化方面有更纯粹的业务敞口。
- English · 原文Raymond James initiated coverage of $SPCX with “Strong Buy”. Giving it a $800 PT, valuing SpaceX at a ~$10T valuation. No words. Jokes about “institutional” notes for retail write themselves. https://t.co/B0uRojaNJZ中文 · 翻译Raymond James 给 $SPCX 首次评级“强烈买入”。 目标价 $800，SpaceX 估值约 $10 万亿。 无语了。“机构”研报服务散户，这笑话都不用编了。https://t.co/B0uRojaNJZ
- English · 原文It’s interesting to witness psychology around valuation anchoring + scarcity. Retail, for example, are buying Figure, last valued at ~$39B through CEFs… At $158B, since it’s private, round 4x valuations. Then Agility Robotics $CCXI, which has broader commercialization. Is at ~$4.3B pre-money and publicly available before the name change. At closer pricing that $AMZN, $NVDA, SoftBank, and Foxconn vaulted it at. Yet some end up paying 4-5x prices of already hiked private investor rounds for exposure… I’m convinced if Agility raised a very small private round at $39B as well from $2.5B (which it definitely could), to set a valuation anchor. Investors would be foaming in the mouth for a private allocation, just due to psychology rather than underlying fundamentals. We’ve also seen this anchoring with $SPCX recently at $1.75T. Peak market inefficiency? Or lack of knowledge from retail?中文 · 翻译看到估值锚定和稀缺性引发的心理现象，真有意思。 比如，散户正通过封闭式基金（CEFs）购买 Figure，这家公司上次估值大概是 390 亿美元左右… 在 1580 亿美元的估值上，因为它是私有公司，差不多是（之前）4 倍的估值。 然后是 Agility Robotics $CCXI，这家公司的商业化前景更广。 它的投前估值大概是 43 亿美元，而且在公司改名前是公开可得的。当时的定价，更接近于 $AMZN、$NVDA、软银和富士康给它抬的那个价格。 然而，有些人最终为了获得敞口，支付了比已经涨过价的私募轮高出 4-5 倍的价格… 我确信，如果 Agility 也以 25 亿美元到 390 亿美元的估值进行一轮小规模私募（它绝对能做到），以此设定一个估
- English · 原文Japan's Rakuten to establish joint venture with $ASTS to build out LEO satellite networks for Japan per Digitimes/Nikkei. "The move is widely viewed as a strategic response to the growing influence of $SPCX Starlink in Japan" https://t.co/RDFvgQNVsp中文 · 翻译日本乐天宣布将和 $ASTS 成立合资公司，为日本建设低轨卫星网络——来自 Digitimes/Nikkei 的报道。 "此举被广泛视为对 $SPCX 星链在日本影响力不断扩大的战略性回应" https://t.co/RDFvgQNVsp
- English · 原文@beauty_oe ニュースが発表された時、誰がすぐに恩恵を受けるのかを考えるようにしているんです。 $SPCXによるMeshの買収後、初期のスタートアップと協業してきた実績を考えると $SIVE が恩恵を受けそうだなと思いました。 フォロワー2万人達成、おめでとうございます！中文 · 翻译@beauty_oe 我一直在考虑，新闻发布时谁能够立刻受益。 $SPCX 收购 Mesh 之后，考虑到与早期初创公司合作的经验，我觉得 $SIVE 可能会受益。 恭喜达成 2 万粉丝！
- English · 原文Wow, $SPCX is now down over $583B in MC... Since Jim Cramer gave a bullish call at $210. Pretty amazing to witness tbh. Inverse Cramer would have returned ~21% in 3 trading days, outperforming a year in your largest indexes? https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s中文 · 翻译哇，$SPCX 现在市值已经蒸发超过 $5830 亿…… 自从 Jim Cramer 在 $210 喊多之后。亲眼看着还挺震撼的。 反向 Cramer 策略的话，三个交易日就能赚大约 21%，比你们那些大盘指数一年的表现都强吧？https://t.co/IhNtFAH99s
- English · 原文I think Jim Cramer’s law needs to be studied in history books. Even $SPCX can’t withstand his blessing. https://t.co/8Hr7898NmA中文 · 翻译我觉得吉姆·克莱默的定律该被写进历史教科书。 就连 $SPCX 都扛不住他的祝福。 https://t.co/8Hr7898NmA
- English · 原文Jim Cramer gave $SPCX his blessing. https://t.co/DSbyBt9f0D中文 · 翻译Jim Cramer 给 $SPCX 点了赞。https://t.co/DSbyBt9f0D
- English · 原文@88magalhaes Lmfao actually $SPCX uses $NBIS now. Did not think of that angle. Don’t think it’s anything newly material though for Nebius, just a fun connection.中文 · 翻译@88magalhaes 哈哈，实际上 $SPCX 现在用的是 $NBIS。之前没想到这个角度。 不过也不觉得这对 Nebius 有什么新的实质性影响，就是个有趣的关联。
- English · 原文Woah, $SPCX acquired Cursor for $60B. I did not think it was worth that much… Maybe network effect or data for improving models became invaluable? I’m sure Elon has a plan in mind, the Twitter acquisition paid extreme dividends. https://t.co/FoZ1wb6DI9中文 · 翻译哇，$SPCX 用 600 亿美元收购了 Cursor。 我真没想到它值这么多钱…… 也许是网络效应，或者是用来改进模型的数据变得无价了？ 我敢肯定 Elon 心里有计划，收购 Twitter 带来了巨大的回报。https://t.co/FoZ1wb6DI9
- English · 原文Apparently, $SPCX is a $2.5T company now. I did say Americans would buy anything futuristic without caring about valuations... I guess everything in Murica go brrr. https://t.co/QAKU0D9EIH中文 · 翻译看起来 $SPCX 现在已经是 2.5 万亿市值的公司了。 我确实说过，美国人会无脑买入任何带有未来感的东西，根本不在乎估值…… 看来在美国，啥都能涨上天。https://t.co/QAKU0D9EIH
- English · 原文Yep, very stupid to be a bear. When Trump is doing everything to boost markets before Midterms. On top, your $WOLF power semi basket should go brrr from 800 VDC acceleration. $LITE optical basket should go brrr from InP easing. $SPCX successful IPO gives more appetite to risk on themes/IPOs (eg. Space sector). And overall macro go brr from War/Strait peace deals. It’s already kind of showing, since 2026 rate hike odds also crashed from 65% -> 35% following the news. Along with crude futures dropping. I've actually found Europe to be the most price sensitive to Iran tensions, so EU markets would probably be the most bullish overall… (South Korea/TW was originally with Sk Hynix moving directly in correlation to crude oil futures, but stopped caring after awhile). But basically: Murica go brrrr.中文 · 翻译没错，这时候做空真的很蠢。 特朗普在中选前拼了命地拉抬市场。 更别说，你那个 $WOLF 功率半导体组合，在 800V 直流快充加速的推动下，应该要直接起飞了。 $LITE 的光学组合，有了 InP 技术的放宽限制，也该跟着飞。 $SPCX 成功上市，让市场对主题/IPO（比如航天板块）的风险偏好更强了。 宏观层面更是因为战争/台海和平协议而狂欢。 迹象已经很明显了——2026 年加息的概率预期，消息一出直接从 65% 暴跌到 35%。原油期货也在跌。 我反而发现，欧洲对伊朗局势的价格变化最敏感，所以欧股整体上可能是最牛的…… （韩国/台湾那边，之前 SK 海力士的走势跟原油期货直接挂钩，但后来慢慢就不跟着走了。） 但说到底：美利坚，冲就完事了。
- English · 原文This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries. Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology. $SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499. It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced. $AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8. it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others. If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA. But for determining the actual upside... nah People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first. It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on. Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at. So for entry points, sure you can use TA. For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.中文 · 翻译这肯定要让很多人不高兴了： 但技术分析（TA）对交易者来说，就是占星术。 它就是个确认偏误，再加上利用人们入场交易时的心理。 有点像当初人们在 $SPCX IPO 时抢跑 $SPCE，就是料到散户会因为交易心理搞混股票代码。 $SIVE 涨了
- English · 原文$SPCX is now trading! And it’s now over $2.15T+ MC. https://t.co/HLQ8ZkbBvi中文 · 翻译$SPCX 现在开始交易了！ 而且市值已经超过 2.15 万亿美元。https://t.co/HLQ8ZkbBvi
- English · 原文All the $SNDK short sellers went extinct. Can’t believe it’s almost $2000 now? That aside feels like everyone is just waiting for the $SPCX IPO in a few hours. https://t.co/EahzuEy1KE中文 · 翻译所有做空 $SNDK 的人都绝迹了。 真不敢相信现在都快 $2000 了？ 话说回来，感觉所有人都在等几个小时后 $SPCX 的 IPO。https://t.co/EahzuEy1KE
- English · 原文Woah, Frankfurt Bank strategists say: 8% of US current-account deficit could be refinanced in a single day by overseas demand for SpaceX ( $SPCX ) shares. Excited to see how markets react around a Mega-IPO... Don't think there's been any historical precedence like this yet? https://t.co/W2apWN6QG4中文 · 翻译哇，法兰克福银行的策略师说： 美国经常账户赤字的 8%，光靠海外对 SpaceX（$SPCX）股票的需求，一天之内就能重新融资。 很期待看到市场对这样一个超级 IPO 会有什么反应…… 历史上好像还没有过这种先例吧？https://t.co/W2apWN6QG4
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
SPCX 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：