CRWVCoreWeave Inc
2Bull4Bear3Mention
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
Focused on AI photonics and semiconductor supply chains — sourcing asymmetric setups from bottoms-up value-chain research. Tracks CPO & optical modules closely, with ongoing deep-dives on SIVE, AAOI, LITE, POET.
Quick verdict
CRWV is net bearish (2 bull · 4 bear)
Coreweave's poor financing causes high debt interest ($640M in Q2, 42% of adj. EBITDA), eroding free cash flow.
Last spoke: 08/12/2026, 12:41 · conviction 6/10
8-10 confidence views use larger markers▲ Bull▼ Bear● Mention
View History (9, newest first)
- I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.
- $NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.
- Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.
- $IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.
- There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”. This is an “if” they have excess capacity. And it looks like the opposite right now: Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta back in March. Since Meta was using too much for internal projects. Meta was immediately constrained so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48B+ contracts with Neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS. Meta is selling excess capacity if there’s any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the Neoclouds. If anything, I’m expecting their guided capex to go up as they build out more independent capacity.
- Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
- @BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
- Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
- @Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.
Ongoing takes on other optical names too
Beyond CRWV, his viewpoint library also covers: