CRWVCoreWeave
2看多4看空3提及
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
CRWV 整体偏空（看多 2 · 看空 4）
Coreweave糟糕的融资导致高额债务利息（二季度6.4亿美元，占EBITDA的42%），严重侵蚀自由现金流。
最近发言：2026/08/12 12:41 · 信心分 6/10
8-10 分观点使用大徽标▲ 看多▼ 看空● 提及
历史观点（9 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文I've been pretty vocally bearish on $CRWV since last year compared to $NBIS and other neoclouds. Demand isn't really much of a problem with their $100B+ backlog, their revenue + 59% adjusted EBITDA margin looks good. But underlying financing methods is really bad... Coreweave's debt interest (eg. Q2 interest expense reached $640m), which eats into FCF way too much... That figure is like 42% of Coreweaves $1.51B adjusted EBITDA for reference.中文 · 翻译从去年开始，和 $NBIS 以及其他新兴云服务公司比起来，我对 $CRWV 一直都挺看空的。 需求倒不是什么大问题，他们有 1000 亿+ 美元的积压订单，营收和 59% 的调整后 EBITDA 利润率看起来也很不错。 但底层的融资方式真的很糟糕... Coreweave 的债务利息 (比如，二季度利息支出就达到了 6.4 亿美元)，这块吃掉了太多自由现金流 (FCF)... 作为参考，这个数字大概是 Coreweave 15.1 亿美元调整后 EBITDA 的 42%。
- English · 原文$NBIS outlook is pretty insane yet again. $582.3M revenue (+454% Y/Y, +46% Q/Q) off ~50% adjusted EBITDA margin (AI Cloud). $8.04B cash on hand. Reiterates financial guide (2026 revenue: $3.0–$3.4B 2026 EoY ARR: $7–$9B), I was hoping for a raise, but it's already massive growth. Not really about this quarter financials, but these signals: - "We could sell our entire 2027 capacity on these terms today." massive visibility on demand - "4 customer agreements averaging over $1B+ each in contract value" - Around 70% of Q2 deals included customer prepayments - Contracted power guidance was raised again, from more ~4+ GW to 5 GW. (this used to be a concern vs. $IREN debate, but Nebius power guidance keeps going through the roof). - Expects $9B+ of prepayments in 2026 and says it has $40B+ of commitments. - annual contract value per MW keeps going brrr (>$40M/mw for Q3 short term capacity deals) Same bear story will always be there (eg. large $5.66B of capex with current GAAP net loss), but demand is extreme with massive visibility, with increasing AI Cloud adjusted EBITDA margins ( 24% -> 45% -> 50% progression) We kinda got this read through from all your hyperscaler cloud earnings and $CRWV backlog yesterday, but glad it's showing up in Weebius's earnings.中文 · 翻译$NBIS 的展望又一次相当炸裂。 营收 $5.823 亿（同比增长 454%，环比增长 46%），其中 AI 云业务的调整后 EBITDA 利润率接近 50%。手头现金 $80.4 亿。 公司重申了财务指引（2026 年营收：$3
- English · 原文Insane earnings today for the AI theme with $CRWV, $SMCI, and $LITE. Coreweave: Absurd ~$104B+ backlog, which doesn't include $25B+ of new customer agreements added in early Q3. Compute demand read through for Neoclouds is enormous (For Nebius, Iren and others) Supermicro: Absurd $65-72B in revenue guidance, adding $60B+ in new orders... AI DC buildout read through is just enormous. Lumentum: $808M -> $1.01B -> $1.25B revenue ramp, with operating margins growing quarter after quarter. Photonics players just keeps printing. TLDR: Every layer of the AI buildout goes brrrrr, and it's showing up in earnings.中文 · 翻译今天人工智能赛道的这些股业绩真是炸裂，$CRWV、$SMCI 和 $LITE 都很猛。 Coreweave：积压订单量惊人地达到约 $1040 亿以上，这还不包括第三季度初新增的超过 $250 亿新客户合同。 从中可以看出，Neoclouds 的计算需求量巨大（比如 Nebius, Iren 等等）。 Supermicro：营收指引达到了惊人的 $650 亿至 $720 亿，还新增了超过 $600 亿的订单…… 从中看出，AI 数据中心的建设规模真是巨大。 Lumentum：营收从 $8.08 亿 → $10.1 亿 → $12.5 亿一路飙升，运营利润率也逐季增长。 光子学相关公司真是赚翻了。 总结一下：AI 基础设施的每个环节都在疯狂运转（像印钞机一样），而且这都实实在在地体现在了财报里。
- English · 原文$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the shower. But does look like Neoclouds/Colo players are sharply recovering following new catalysts, such as Kimi compute shortage news and new contracts.中文 · 翻译$IREN 涨了 19.69%，因为它将年度经常性收入 (ARR) 目标从新的 AI 云计算合同上调至 40 亿美元以上。现在它的客户群包括微软、英伟达、Perplexity 和 Figure。 $HUT 涨了 10.45%，这得益于它签署了一份为期 15 年、价值 98 亿美元的 AI 数据中心租赁协议。 $CIFR 涨了 16.76% $CLSK 涨了 13.7% $WYFI 涨了 9.18% 不过 $NBIS 和 $CRWV 还在磨蹭呢。 但看起来确实，新兴云服务/托管服务商 (Colo players) 们正在强劲复苏，这得益于 Kimi 算力短缺的消息和新合同等新的催化剂。
- English · 原文There’s a lot of disinformation going around about $META “cutting capex” because they “overbuilt”. This is an “if” they have excess capacity. And it looks like the opposite right now: Hyperscalers like $GOOGL are so compute constrained that they had to cut allocations to Meta back in March. Since Meta was using too much for internal projects. Meta was immediately constrained so it looks like they were forced to immediately sign massive $48B+ contracts with Neoclouds like $CRWV and $NBIS. Meta is selling excess capacity if there’s any, especially since their large contracts are take or pay from the Neoclouds. If anything, I’m expecting their guided capex to go up as they build out more independent capacity.中文 · 翻译关于 $META “削减资本支出”是因为他们“超建了”的谣言很多。 这有个前提，那就是他们真的有过剩产能。 但现在看起来，情况恰恰相反： 像 $GOOGL 这样的超大规模云厂商，计算资源紧张到三月份就不得不削减给 Meta 的分配。 因为 Meta 用了太多资源来做内部项目。 Meta 立即受到了限制，所以看起来他们被迫立马和像 $CRWV、$NBIS 这样的“新云”公司签下了超过 480 亿美元的巨额合同。 Meta 如果真有闲置产能的话，那肯定是正在出售，尤其是考虑到他们和这些新云公司签的大合同都是照付不议的。 要我说的话，我反而预计他们指导的资本支出会增加，因为他们要建设更多自己的独立产能。
- English · 原文Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang) - While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.). - On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs. It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics. If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion. But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term) With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like $SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC. Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay. With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags. With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution. There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.中文 · 翻译当然，第一重要的是毒性融资结构 / 流通股动态。 最好的例子就是当前的新一代云服务商格局： - $IREN 基本就是垃圾，因为他们有 60 亿美元的 ATM 增发额度，几乎无限稀释，大概率每次反弹都在卖（结构性压制） - 而 $NBIS 今年至今已经涨了 153%+，靠的是最优结构（比如 $NVDA 直接投资、混搭可转债等）。 - 另一方面，$CRWV 因为用高利率贷款买 GPU，背负着无尽的债务利息。 这事非常微妙，但你必须关注流通股的动态。 如果这家公司确实质地不错，那等现有持有人被稀释到快没了之后，或许是个做多的好时机。 但如果你在意自己股权的增值，就最好离这种毒性融资结构或毒性压制（比如债务利息长期蚕食公司自由现金流）远远的。 小公司里这种情况比比皆是，比如 $SLNH，市值才 2.5 亿美元，却搞了个新的 5 亿美元 ATM 增发。 或者像 $BKKT，为了给高管发工资搞了没完没了的稀释。 这类公司，基本上就是 KOL 们在吹的时候，你把钱转给了公司。所以这些都是红旗。 很多软件股，比如 $SNAP，会用盈利数据来掩盖股权激励。所以虽然公司账面看着是赚钱的，但你的股权价值很可能因为稀释而缩水。 筛选标的时，这类股权结构无穷无尽，你必须仔细看。
- English · 原文@BKCY314 Financing structure is much different, $CRWV is getting eaten alive by debt interest. $IREN has little equity appreciation from excessive ATMs. $NBIS is just right, and have sum of parts from its subsidiaries from Avride + ownership of Clickhouse https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV中文 · 翻译@BKCY314 融资结构完全不同，$CRWV 被债务利息吃掉了。 $IREN 因为过量 ATM 融资，几乎没有权益增值。 $NBIS 就刚好到位，而且还有旗下子公司 Avride 加上 Clickhouse 持股的综合价值。 https://t.co/FkGn0XWrdV
- English · 原文Fun to see my highest conviction Neocloud pick in $NBIS age well. I wrote a thesis last year on the Neocloud sector becoming a major theme. And then picked the King. -> Nebius is #1 out of the entire sector from $IREN to $CRWV. $84 -> $260. Thesis validated by markets. https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW中文 · 翻译有意思，看到我最有信心的 Neocloud 标的 $NBIS 越陈越香。 去年我写了一篇关于 Neocloud 板块将成为主要趋势的论点。 然后挑中了那个王者。 -> 从 $IREN 到 $CRWV，Nebius 是整个板块里表现最好的。 $84 → $260。 市场验证了这个观点。 https://t.co/RGOt3GSNjW
- English · 原文@Anon1pvi Not a fan of $CRWV, debt interest too high. As for $IREN, infinite ATMs structurally caps upside. $NBIS is the Goldilocks player in neoclouds.中文 · 翻译@Anon1pvi 不太看好 $CRWV，债务利息太高了。 至于 $IREN，无限 ATM 增发机制在结构上就限制了上行空间。 $NBIS 是新云领域里那个"刚刚好"的玩家。
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
CRWV 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：