LPKLPKF Laser & Electronics
9Bull0Bear5Mention
Serenity @aleabitoreddit
Focused on AI photonics and semiconductor supply chains — sourcing asymmetric setups from bottoms-up value-chain research. Tracks CPO & optical modules closely, with ongoing deep-dives on SIVE, AAOI, LITE, POET.
Quick verdict
LPK is net bullish (9 bull · 0 bear)
KOL notes prior investment in LPK yielded positive results.
Last spoke: 08/14/2026, 04:06 · conviction 3/10
8-10 confidence views use larger markers▲ Bull▼ Bear● Mention
View History (14, newest first)
- Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter. - "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes. At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028. - "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month. TLDR: - SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027 - Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028 Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent. Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.
- So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain: - Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM). Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital. Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027. So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries. Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp". These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp. Regardless, just an update on developments.
- Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars: Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics. Not cheap Nike sock exports. With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto, over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards… Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work. Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US. Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea. But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.
- So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.
- @dheerajkaja It's more nuanced, they said "80% are now qualifying with $LPK equipment". So having that convert into 70% targeted market share during HVM is bullish.
- Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).
- I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027 + their partners. Then there's major shifts like TSM CoPoS 2028 (seems possible $LPK upstream exposure, unconfirmed). Just that claim of 80% is staggering and my personal expectation was markets might price it in eventually as they volume ramp (disclosure, own LPK). Don't think there needs to be any major news, probably just getting closer to HVM timelines.
- Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier. You can find it in SpaceX US import logs. It's fun information discovery ahead of Space'x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails. Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM! Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo... Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging.
- Still have my $AXTI, and positions in others I haven’t mentioned as much like $ALRIB or $LPK. Axt different reason though, one part is dilution concerns, so there’s some newer float structure risks. Other part is not wanting to cause more export controls by talking about some things
- Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.
- @DeauDeuxsau Just H1 2027 should be glass core substrate volume orders with $LPK, kinda no news aside from waiting on that to happen.
- Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE
- $LPK turned out pretty well. https://t.co/mZlTyd4oUO
- European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm
Ongoing takes on other optical names too
Beyond LPK, his viewpoint library also covers: