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Serenity @aleabitoreddit
专注 AI 光通信与半导体供应链研究，擅长从产业链与公司基本面寻找高赔率机会。长期跟踪 CPO 与光模块产业链，持续输出 SIVE、AAOI、LITE、POET 等标的的深度观点。
结论速览
LPK 整体偏多（看多 9 · 看空 0）
KOL指出此前对LPK的投资取得了良好回报。
最近发言：2026/08/14 04:06 · 信心分 3/10
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历史观点（14 条，最新在上）
- English · 原文Feels like glass substrate timelines got pushed back at least another quarter. - "Samsung Electro-Mechanics Delays Semiconductor Glass Substrate Investment" due to a bottleneck in customer reliability evaluations of prototypes. At its recent second-quarter earnings presentation, less than a month later, the company revised the start of operations to 2028. - "SKC Reportedly Pushes Glass Substrate Mass Production to 2027, Targets Final Validation by Year-end" (Trendforce), earlier last month. TLDR: - SKC Absolics H2 2026 -> H1 2027 - Samsung H2 2027 -> H1 2028 Not everything is always good news with timeline shifts, but glass core substrate shifts do feel imminent. Volume ramp for some players eg. $LPK / Philoptics (161580) / E&R (8027) likely track these mass production timelines.中文 · 翻译感觉玻基板的交付时间至少又推迟了一个季度。 - "三星电机延迟半导体玻璃基板投资"，因为客户对原型产品的可靠性评估遇到瓶颈。 在其最近的二季度财报会上，不到一个月后，该公司将开始运营的时间修正到了 2028 年。 - "据报道，SKC 将玻璃基板量
- English · 原文So positive readthrough on the upstream glass substrate supply chain: - Sumitomo Chemical and Samsung Electro-Mechanics formally establish JV in Korea within the year to handle the glass core substrate business (GlaSSEM). Main thing was timeline/funding was finalized: "full scale commercialization targeted H2 2027" for the Samsung/Dongwoo JV / KRW 482.1B planned capital. Think the "full scale commercialization" is the word to highlight, since that would imply timeline moving faster than expected than starting ramp or early production H2 2027. So... TGV/LIDE with $LPK (that I own)/E&R and Onto in terms of yields are just some examples of possible sector beneficiaries. Since companies like LPK stated in the past: “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment” and targeted "70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp". These players also typically have revenue pulled forward, since equipment orders during capex cycle hit before actual ramp. Regardless, just an update on developments.中文 · 翻译那么，上游玻璃基板供应链传来了积极消息： - 住友化学和三星电机将在年内正式在韩国成立合资企业，负责玻璃核心基板业务 (GlaSSEM)。 关键是时间表和资金都确定了：三星/Dongwoo 合资企业计划投入 482.1 亿韩元，目标是在 2027 年下半年“全面商业化”。 我觉得“全面商业化”这个词是重点，因为这意味着时间线可能比预期的要快，而不是 2027 年下半年才开始试产或早期生产。 所以……在良率方面，TGV/LIDE 相关厂商，比如我持有的 $LPK、E&R 和 Onto，都可能是这个行业的一些受益者。 因为像 LPK 这样的公司过去曾表示：“在全球主要厂商中，80% 的客户选择了 LPKF 设备”，并设定了“在玻璃核心基板量产中，TGV LIDE 市场份额目标为
- English · 原文Trump administration is prob realizing now that the key to winning Trade Wars: Is through frontier supply chains like Quantum, AI, Robotics. Not cheap Nike sock exports. With $ASML, $TOWA, $LPK, Ajinomoto, over in Japan, EU, TW, Korea, and others holding all the cards… Since each country holds different monopolies and chokepoints needed to make each industry work. Which all happens to be OUTSIDE the US. Tariffing all our partners turned out to be not a great idea. But not too late imo to repair relations and weaponize global supply chains through partners if Trump wants better trade deals.中文 · 翻译特朗普政府大概现在才意识到，打赢贸易战的关键—— 在于前沿供应链，比如量子计算、AI、机器人。 而不是那些便宜的耐克袜子出口。 因为 $ASML、$TOWA、$LPK、味之素， 这些公司分布在日本、欧盟、台湾、韩国等地，手握所有筹码…… 毕竟每个国家都掌握着不同的垄断环节和卡脖子技术，是让这些产业运转所必需的。 而这些环节恰好都 **不在美国境内**。 对所有贸易伙伴加征关税，结果证明不是个好主意。 但我觉得还不算太晚——如果特朗普想谈成更好的贸易协议，现在修复关系、通过合作伙伴把全球供应链武器化，还来得及。
- English · 原文So short term ramp, I see $LPK probably might be more parabolic. Since when equipment suppliers switch from qualification to volume production as seen with $AEHR or $AIXA recently, they tend to get re-rated to $3-7B MCs. But 99% are structurally more capped on where they head. Long term, I personally see $XFAB has much much higher upside if they're able able to lead European's photonic supply chains and build out a $TSEM alternative with MTP. But are earlier on in the process.中文 · 翻译所以短期拉升的话，我觉得 $LPK 可能会走得更陡峭一些。 因为设备供应商从认证阶段切换到量产阶段时——就像最近 $AEHR 和 $AIXA 那样——它们通常会被重新估值到 30-70 亿美元的市值。 但 99% 的公司从结构上看，天花板还是比较明显的。 长期来看，我个人觉得 $XFAB 的上行空间要大得多，如果它们能主导欧洲的光子供应链，并且用 MTP 做出一个 $TSEM 的替代方案的话。不过现在还处在更早期的阶段。
- English · 原文@dheerajkaja It's more nuanced, they said "80% are now qualifying with $LPK equipment". So having that convert into 70% targeted market share during HVM is bullish.中文 · 翻译@dheerajkaja 这事其实更复杂一点，他们说的是"现在 80% 都在用 $LPK 的设备进行认证"。 所以如果这能在 HVM 阶段转化为 70% 的目标市占率，那是利好。
- English · 原文Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes. And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway: - NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions. - 70% market share targeted, unholy target. - TAM greatly exceeds former projections. - See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders. - Industry is ready for high volume ramps. I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).中文 · 翻译哇，我完全错过了 $LPK 的会议纪要。 我觉得市场也错过了。我最大的收获： - 纳斯达克上市已经在他们的计划中，正在洽谈中。 - 目标市场份额 70%，这个目标太狠了。 - 总可用市场远超之前的预测。 - 今年预计会有 4-5 家客户下订单作为基准。 - 行业已经准备好大规模量产。 我真的觉得 $LPK 基于这些讨论是被严重低估了（声明：持有仓位）。
- English · 原文I mean... if i had to guess, $LPK did claim "80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment". Kinda clear glass substrates is the next packaging shift! From est. timelines, major players like Absolics is ramping H2 2026, Samsung Electro Mechanics 2027 + their partners. Then there's major shifts like TSM CoPoS 2028 (seems possible $LPK upstream exposure, unconfirmed). Just that claim of 80% is staggering and my personal expectation was markets might price it in eventually as they volume ramp (disclosure, own LPK). Don't think there needs to be any major news, probably just getting closer to HVM timelines.中文 · 翻译我是说……要我猜的话，$LPK 确实声称过"全球主要客户中有 80% 都选用了 LPKF 设备"。 玻璃基板明显就是下一代封装变革的方向！ 按照预估的时间线，像 Absolics 这样的大玩家在 2026 下半年开始扩产，三星电机在 2027 年，加上他们的合作伙伴。 然后还有像台积电 CoPoS 2028 这种重大转变（$LPK 上游可能受益，未经确认）。 光是那个 80% 的声称就够惊人的了，我个人原本预期市场可能会随着它们量产的推进而逐步消化这个信息（披露：我持有 LPK）。 我觉得不需要什么重大新闻，大概就是越来越接近 HVM 时间线就行了。
- English · 原文Just thought this was interesting: $LPK is an unknown SpaceX supplier. You can find it in SpaceX US import logs. It's fun information discovery ahead of Space'x IPO this week. Though, not sure what the exact contract entails. Disclosure: I have positions in LPK, NFA, credit to my follower Albert_TheVoid for the DM! Especially since everyone seems to be talking about about SpaceX with Velo... Just a fun, new direct relationship between $LPK and SpaceX if people want to do more digging.中文 · 翻译只是觉得这个挺有意思：$LPK 是一家不为人知的 SpaceX 供应商。 你可以在 SpaceX 的美国进口记录里查到它。 这算是 SpaceX 本周 IPO 前的好玩信息挖掘。不过，我不确定具体的合同内容是什么。 声明：我持有 LPK 仓位，非投资建议，感谢我的关注者 Albert_TheVoid 私信提供的线索！ 尤其现在好像所有人都在聊 SpaceX 和 Velo… 只是 $LPK 和 SpaceX 之间一个有趣的新直接关联，如果有人想深挖的话。
- English · 原文Still have my $AXTI, and positions in others I haven’t mentioned as much like $ALRIB or $LPK. Axt different reason though, one part is dilution concerns, so there’s some newer float structure risks. Other part is not wanting to cause more export controls by talking about some things中文 · 翻译$AXTI 我还是拿着，另外还有一些我平时提得没那么多的仓位，比如 $ALRIB 和 $LPK。 不过 Axt 的情况不太一样，一部分是担心稀释，所以存在一些较新的流通盘结构上的风险。 另一部分呢，是不想因为聊某些事情，招来更多的出口管制。
- English · 原文Just very helpful timelines reiterated around glass substrate (source: Trendforce): - SKC Absolics (011790) H2 2026 (first mover x $AMAT) - $AMD customers - Samsung electromechanics h2 2027 (009150) x Sumitomo Chem (4005) - Apple / $AVGO / hyperscalers Idk about $INTC 2030 reports, we’ll see. $TSM CoPoS was 2-3Y was correct though from recent TSM chairman comments. Innolux was interesting beneficiary. $SHMD should be too off TSM but financials were pretty toxic. Same players should appear multiple times, eg innolux + SKC. Also applies to $LPK and upstream equipment seller around these ramps.中文 · 翻译Trendforce重申了一些关于玻璃基板，很有用的时间线（来源：Trendforce）： - SKC Absolics (011790) 2026年下半年（先行者，与 $AMAT 合作）- $AMD 的客户 - Samsung electromechanics 2027年下半年 (009150)，与 Sumitomo Chem (4005) 合作 - Apple / $AVGO / 超大规模厂商 关于 $INTC 2030年的报告，我就不清楚了，到时候看吧。 不过，$TSM CoPoS 说2-3年那个，从台积电董事长最近的评论来看确实是对的。Innolux 是个有意思的受益方。$SHMD 也应该会受益于台积电，但它财务状况实在有点糟糕。 同样的参与者应该会多次出现，比如 Innolux + SKC。 这也适用于 $LPK 以及围绕这些产能爬坡的上游设备供应商。
- English · 原文@DeauDeuxsau Just H1 2027 should be glass core substrate volume orders with $LPK, kinda no news aside from waiting on that to happen.中文 · 翻译@DeauDeuxsau 仅仅 2027 年上半年就应该会有玻璃核心基板的大订单跟 $LPK 合作，除此之外基本上没什么新闻，就等这事发生。
- English · 原文Good times with $AEHR, it’s now ~$3.5B MC. Haven’t mentioned it as much since there’s nothing too new. Just waiting on volume orders for these types of players like $LPK, and others. https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE中文 · 翻译$AEHR 涨得不错，现在市值大约 35 亿美元。 最近没怎么提，因为也没什么新消息。 就是在等像 $LPK 这类玩家的量单，还有其他的。https://t.co/W8k0ce3RSE
- English · 原文$LPK turned out pretty well. https://t.co/mZlTyd4oUO中文 · 翻译$LPK 结果还不错。https://t.co/mZlTyd4oUO
- English · 原文European quantum/optical/glass chokepoints go BRRR? $ALRIB +8.35% $LPK +3.21% $IQE +5.68% $SOI +4.98% As a side thought, it’s a nice vote of confidence to retail that the LPKF CEO bought shares off the market. More CEOs should do the same, even if it’s small. https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm中文 · 翻译欧洲的量子/光学/玻璃瓶颈正在疯狂爆发？ $ALRIB 上涨 8.35% $LPK 上涨 3.21% $IQE 上涨 5.68% $SOI 上涨 4.98% 顺便说一句，LPKF 的 CEO 在市场上买了自家股票，这对散户来说是个不错的信心信号。 更多 CEO 应该这样做，哪怕只是小额买入。https://t.co/BwxBnd2wDm
在其他光模块产业链标的上也有持续观点
LPK 之外，以下标的同样收录于其观点库：