XLU公用事业精选 ETF

历史观点（3 条，最新在上）

1. 2026/06/17 13:46提及清仓跳转 X 原文 →
   English · 原文

   It's really important to add the context I added later if you're reposting this multiple times, but thanks for highlighting older ideas. With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts. Then Iran War unexpectedly happened, and I made statements that it threw a knife into the thesis. Since we went from 3-4 rate cut projected, down to 0, and even possibility of hikes. So I cut majority concentration, but still hold a tiny bit. Utilities trade was heavily dependent on rate cuts. It's important to stay up to date with current events, since thesis can change anytime, especially during macro black swan events.

   中文 · 翻译

   如果你在多次转发这条内容，一定要把我后来补充的那个上下文加进去，不过还是谢谢你把老观点翻出来提。 拿 $XLU 来说，回头看，买公用事业股确实是个非常好的思路。当时的逻辑是：AI 带来的极端需求、资本开支，加上降息。 结果伊朗战争突然爆发，我当时就表态说这等于往这个逻辑里扔了一把刀。 因为我们原本预计的 3-4 次降息，现在已经降到 0 次了，甚至还有可能加息。 所以我大幅削减了持仓，但还是留着一点点。公用事业交易高度依赖降息。 保持对当前事件的关注很重要，因为逻辑随时可能改变，尤其是在宏观黑天鹅事件发生的时候。
2. 2026/06/08 14:21提及跳转 X 原文 →
   English · 原文

   @soulbiri1 I think only $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL are red since that mention. Maybe like 1-2 flat like $HOOD But 25 for 30 like $NBIS green, and many by triple digits is pretty solid if you do equal weighted.

   中文 · 翻译

   @soulbiri1 我觉得只有 $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL 自那之后是红的。 大概有 1-2 个像 $HOOD 这样是平的。 但 30 个里有 25 个像 $NBIS 是绿的，而且不少涨幅双位数，如果你做等权重配置的话，这成绩挺不错的。
3. 2026/05/22 14:14看空重申跳转 X 原文 →
   English · 原文

   @plaza404_ I made an update awhile back that Iran War caused a major issue with $XLU in terms increasing odds of no rate cuts. Large part of the utilities tailwind was multiple rate cuts this year, which is now priced at 0 likely.

   中文 · 翻译

   @plaza404_ 我之前更新过，伊朗战争导致 $XLU 出了大问题，增加了今年不降息的概率。 公用事业板块很大一部分上涨动力来自于多次降息预期，现在这个预期大概率已经归零了。