XLU · Serenity viewpoints

Serenity @aleabitoreddit

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Focused on AI photonics and semiconductor supply chains — sourcing asymmetric setups from bottoms-up value-chain research. Tracks CPO & optical modules closely, with ongoing deep-dives on SIVE, AAOI, LITE, POET.

Quick verdict

XLU is net bearish (0 bull · 1 bear)

The utilities sector ($XLU) faces headwinds due to increased odds of no rate cuts, removing a key tailwind for the sector.

Last spoke: 06/17/2026, 13:46 · no conviction

8-10 confidence views use larger markers▲ Bull▼ Bear● Mention

View History (3, newest first)

06/17/2026, 13:46UTCMentionCUTView on X →
It's really important to add the context I added later if you're reposting this multiple times, but thanks for highlighting older ideas. With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts. Then Iran War unexpectedly happened, and I made statements that it threw a knife into the thesis. Since we went from 3-4 rate cut projected, down to 0, and even possibility of hikes. So I cut majority concentration, but still hold a tiny bit. Utilities trade was heavily dependent on rate cuts. It's important to stay up to date with current events, since thesis can change anytime, especially during macro black swan events.
06/08/2026, 14:21UTCMentionView on X →
@soulbiri1 I think only $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL are red since that mention. Maybe like 1-2 flat like $HOOD But 25 for 30 like $NBIS green, and many by triple digits is pretty solid if you do equal weighted.
05/22/2026, 14:14UTCBearREITView on X →
@plaza404_ I made an update awhile back that Iran War caused a major issue with $XLU in terms increasing odds of no rate cuts. Large part of the utilities tailwind was multiple rate cuts this year, which is now priced at 0 likely.

Ongoing takes on other optical names too

Beyond XLU, his viewpoint library also covers:

$SIVE · 222 takes $AAOI · 124 takes $NVDA · 120 takes

All tracked tickers →Institutional, insider & congressional activity →

View History (3, newest first)

06/17/2026, 13:46UTCMentionCUTView on X →

It's really important to add the context I added later if you're reposting this multiple times, but thanks for highlighting older ideas. With $XLU, in hindsight, was an extremely good idea for utilities. The thesis was: extreme demand from AI, capex, and rate cuts. Then Iran War unexpectedly happened, and I made statements that it threw a knife into the thesis. Since we went from 3-4 rate cut projected, down to 0, and even possibility of hikes. So I cut majority concentration, but still hold a tiny bit. Utilities trade was heavily dependent on rate cuts. It's important to stay up to date with current events, since thesis can change anytime, especially during macro black swan events.

06/08/2026, 14:21UTCMentionView on X →

@soulbiri1 I think only $IBIT / $XLU / $META / $CRCL are red since that mention. Maybe like 1-2 flat like $HOOD But 25 for 30 like $NBIS green, and many by triple digits is pretty solid if you do equal weighted.

05/22/2026, 14:14UTCBearREITView on X →

@plaza404_ I made an update awhile back that Iran War caused a major issue with $XLU in terms increasing odds of no rate cuts. Large part of the utilities tailwind was multiple rate cuts this year, which is now priced at 0 likely.

XLUUtilities Select Sector SPDR ETF

View History (3, newest first)

XLUUtilities Select Sector SPDR ETF

View History (3, newest first)